Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the U.S. economy amidst ongoing uncertainties due to tariff policies, highlighting a slowdown in economic growth and mixed signals from various economic indicators [1][4]. Economic Growth and Indicators - The U.S. GDP growth rate for 2025 has been revised down from 2.2% to 1.6% by OECD, and from 1.8% to 1.5% by IMF for 2026 [1]. - Current expectations suggest a decline in U.S. economic growth to around 1.4% this year, primarily due to the waning effects of fiscal stimulus and the impact of high interest rates [1][5]. - The unemployment rate decreased slightly to 4.1% in June, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000, surpassing expectations [5][6]. Labor Market Dynamics - Despite a robust unemployment rate, signs of weakness in the labor market are emerging, particularly in the slowdown of job growth in the private sector compared to the public sector [6]. - The labor market is influenced by the overall economic slowdown and structural adjustments within industries, indicating a gradual weakening trend [6]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, the highest since February, but the impact of tariffs on inflation is mitigated by falling global energy prices and the limited scope of tariff implementation [1][8]. - The decline in oil prices from around $80 to approximately $65 per barrel has significantly contributed to controlling inflation [8]. - The actual impact of tariffs is less than initially expected due to delays in implementation and lower-than-anticipated tariff rates [9][10]. Monetary Policy Outlook - There is a high probability (over 90%) that the Federal Reserve will initiate interest rate cuts in September, as inflation indicators are trending downward and economic growth is slowing [11][12]. - The long-term outlook suggests that the federal funds rate may eventually decrease to around 2% or lower, although this will be a gradual process [11]. Currency and Trade Dynamics - The recent decline in the U.S. dollar index is attributed to expectations of Fed rate cuts and a slowdown in global trade growth, which reduces demand for the dollar [13]. - Despite some supportive factors for the dollar, such as stable capital inflows, the prevailing negative factors are expected to dominate in the short term, leading to a continued weak and volatile dollar index [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: The higher-than-expected US CPI in June weakens the expectation of an interest rate cut this month, but Powell's stance is neutral. The easing of Sino-US negotiations and the optimistic trade sentiment in some countries reduce the safe-haven demand, but there is still an expectation of an interest rate cut in September. Wall Street institutions are bullish on gold, which is supported by geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases in the long term. The US dollar trend and subsequent economic data are the key disturbances [3]. - Copper: Trump's move to impose tariffs on copper has both explicit and implicit reasons. In the short term, copper prices may still be mainly volatile [15]. - Aluminum: The supply of electrolytic aluminum is close to the industry's upper limit with little change. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The tariffs imposed by Trump may suppress metals. The upside space of Shanghai aluminum is limited in the short term, and it is recommended to be bearish in the medium and long term. Alumina has an expected supply surplus, and there is still a short - term risk of a squeeze, but the upward momentum is weakening. The cost of cast aluminum alloy is strongly supported, but the demand is weak [34][35]. - Zinc: The supply side is gradually transitioning from tight to surplus, and the demand side is weak in the traditional off - season. In the short term, focus on macro data, market sentiment, and supply - side disturbances [62]. - Nickel: Nickel ore prices are expected to decline, nickel iron prices are falling due to weak demand, stainless steel has limited upward drive, and nickel sulfate maintains a production - based - on - sales trend. Pay attention to tariff policies and fundamental improvements [75]. - Tin: Tin prices are still in a volatile trend. Considering the upcoming outflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand, the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support [92]. - Lithium Carbonate: The spot market of the lithium industry has an active transaction at the mine and lithium salt ends, but the downstream demand is dull. The futures show a pattern of reducing positions and rising, and the short - term market may be driven by sentiment [108]. - Silicon Industry Chain: The demand for industrial silicon has some support, but high inventory suppresses price increases. The prices of downstream products of polysilicon do not move in tandem. The short - term market may maintain a volatile and strong pattern, and beware of the risk of chasing up [117]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price and Market Analysis**: The US 6 - month CPI weakens the interest - rate - cut expectation this month, but Powell's stance is neutral. The safe - haven demand is reduced, but there is still an expectation of an interest - rate cut in September. Wall Street institutions are bullish on gold, and the US dollar trend and economic data are key factors [3]. - **Data**: Various data on SHFE and COMEX gold and silver prices, ratios, and spreads are presented, such as SHFE gold and silver futures main - continuous prices, COMEX gold and silver ratios, and SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences [4][10][12]. Copper - **Price and Market Analysis**: Trump's tariff on copper is based on the 232 clause of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act and aims to support the return of the US manufacturing industry. Copper prices may be volatile in the short term [15]. - **Data**: Copper futures and spot data are provided, including the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures, as well as spot prices, premiums, import profits and losses, and warehouse receipts [16][23][27]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Analysis**: The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is expected to accumulate. Trump's tariffs may suppress metals. Alumina has a supply surplus expectation, and cast aluminum alloy has cost support but weak demand [34][35]. - **Data**: Aluminum and alumina futures and spot data are presented, including prices, spreads, basis, and inventory data [36][43][46]. Zinc - **Price and Market Analysis**: The supply side is transitioning from tight to surplus, and the demand side is weak in the off - season. Focus on macro data and supply - side disturbances in the short term [62]. - **Data**: Zinc futures and spot data are provided, including prices, spreads, basis, and inventory data [63][68][71]. Nickel - **Price and Market Analysis**: Nickel ore prices are expected to decline, nickel iron prices are falling due to weak demand, stainless steel has limited upward drive, and nickel sulfate maintains a production - based - on - sales trend. Pay attention to tariff policies and fundamental improvements [75]. - **Data**: Nickel futures and related data are presented, including prices, trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipts, as well as data on nickel ore prices, inventory, and downstream profits [76][82][86]. Tin - **Price and Market Analysis**: Tin prices are in a volatile trend. Considering the upcoming outflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand, the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support [92]. - **Data**: Tin futures and spot data are provided, including prices, spreads, and inventory data [93][98][101]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market Analysis**: The spot market of the lithium industry has an active transaction at the mine and lithium salt ends, but the downstream demand is dull. The futures show a pattern of reducing positions and rising, and the short - term market may be driven by sentiment [108]. - **Data**: Lithium carbonate futures and spot data are presented, including prices, spreads, and inventory data [109][112][115]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price and Market Analysis**: The demand for industrial silicon has some support, but high inventory suppresses price increases. The prices of downstream products of polysilicon do not move in tandem. The short - term market may maintain a volatile and strong pattern, and beware of the risk of chasing up [117]. - **Data**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon - related data are provided, including spot prices, futures prices, spreads, and inventory data [118][120][141].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon and cotton are recommended to be held with a bullish mindset, and there are good arbitrage opportunities in iron ore [1] - The upward trend of stock index futures is clear, with short - term consolidation and accumulation of positive factors. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips [2] - The bond market is expected to remain at a high level with certain support but limited upside space [2] - Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and it is recommended to hold short positions of out - of - the - money put options on the 10 - contract [2][6] - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the medium - term tight - balance pattern remaining unchanged [6] - Alumina has an over - supply pattern with pressure on the upside, while the medium - term upward trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged [6] - Nickel prices will continue to fluctuate in a range, and new orders can focus on the opportunity of selling call options at the upper edge of the range [6] - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to decline, and short - selling opportunities can be considered on rallies [8] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are strongly supported by the expectation of anti - involution production cuts [8] - Steel prices are expected to see a slower upward slope, and the probability of steel futures prices returning to a volatile pattern increases [8] - Iron ore prices will continue to fluctuate strongly, and strategies such as short - selling out - of - the - money put options and 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage can be held [11] - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and long positions can be held [11] - Soda ash prices will fluctuate, and a long - short arbitrage strategy of going long on glass 01 and short on soda ash 01 can be held [10][11] - Crude oil prices will continue to be highly volatile, with concerns about supply shortages easing [13] - Methanol prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and a short - selling strategy of at - the - money straddle on the 09 - contract can be considered [13] - Polyolefin prices are expected to decline, and short - selling call options on the 09 - contract are recommended [13] - Cotton prices are supported by the expectation of supply tightness at the end of the year, but attention should be paid to the impact of the off - season and other factors [13] - Rubber prices are expected to decline due to increased supply and decreased demand [13] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On Tuesday, the A - share market continued to fluctuate and adjust. The ChiNext Index rose sharply, but the Shanghai Composite Index weakened. The trading volume of the two markets rebounded to 1.64 trillion yuan (previous value: 1.48 trillion yuan). The communication and computer sectors led the gains, while the coal and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sectors led the losses [2] - China's GDP in the first half of the year increased by 5.3% year - on - year, with the economy showing an overall positive trend. Short - term incremental policies may not be introduced urgently. The market sentiment was boosted, and the trading volume of A - shares increased. The upward trend of stock index futures is clear, with short - term consolidation [2] Bond Futures - Yesterday, bond futures rebounded across the board. The economic growth is in line with expectations, and the real estate sector is still weak. The market's expectation of policy intensification has turned cautious [2] - The capital market has become looser, and the bond market has rebounded slightly. The bond market is expected to remain at a high level with certain support but limited upside space [2] Gold and Silver - The US CPI slightly exceeded market expectations, but core inflation was still lower than expected. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in July has cooled down. Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [2] - The economic data of China and the US show resilience, and there is a driving force for the convergence of the gold - silver ratio. It is recommended to hold short positions of out - of - the money put options on the 10 - contract [6] Copper - Recently, domestic macro data are in line with expectations, and the market's expectation of policy intensification has become cautious. The US CPI slightly exceeded expectations, and the US dollar index continued to rise slightly [6] - LME copper inventories continued to increase, and the contango widened. Domestic inventories are still at a low level, and the spot price has a slight premium. The short - term upward pressure on copper prices due to tariffs may continue, but the medium - term tight - balance pattern remains unchanged [6] Aluminum and Alumina - Domestic macro data are in line with expectations, and the market's expectation of policy intensification has become cautious. The US CPI slightly exceeded expectations, and the US dollar index continued to rise slightly. There is still uncertainty in US tariffs [6] - Alumina has an over - supply pattern with pressure on the upside. The medium - term upward trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to changes in inventory and demand expectations [6] Nickel - The supply of nickel ore and ferronickel has increased, and the cost support has weakened. The demand for stainless steel and ternary batteries is weak [6] - The imbalance between supply and demand in the nickel market remains unchanged. Although there is some support from the Indonesian RKAB policy, there is currently no clear directional driver. Nickel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in a range [6] Lithium Carbonate - The supply of lithium carbonate remains loose, and the demand increment is relatively limited. The total inventory of lithium carbonate continues to accumulate. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [8] Silicon Energy - There are expectations of production cuts in the silicon energy industry. The inventory of industrial silicon standard warehouse receipts is decreasing, and the downstream of polysilicon shows signs of price increases. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are strongly supported [8] Steel and Iron Ore - The economic data in June and the second quarter are good in total but poor in structure. The terminal demand expectation has weakened, and the contradiction in the steel market is not significant [8] - The iron ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly and compress steel - making profits. Strategies such as short - selling out - of - the - money put options and 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage can be held [11] Coke and Coking Coal - The supply of coking coal has limited increment, and the demand is good. The price of coking coal is expected to fluctuate strongly, and long positions can be held [11] - The first - round price increase of coke is expected to be implemented this week. The spot market of coke is strong, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream replenishment [11] Soda Ash and Glass - The supply of soda ash exceeds demand, and the inventory of soda ash plants is increasing. The trading volume of floating glass is relatively stable, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced [10][11] - It is recommended to hold a long - short arbitrage strategy of going long on glass 01 and short on soda ash 01 [10][11] Crude Oil - OPEC maintains its forecast of global oil demand growth and economic growth in 2025. API data shows that crude oil and refined oil inventories have increased unexpectedly. The concern about supply shortages has eased, and oil prices will continue to be highly volatile [13] Methanol - The operating rate of methanol production enterprises has decreased to 83%, reaching the lowest level this year. The price trend of methanol depends on the arrival volume in August. A short - selling strategy of at - the - money straddle on the 09 - contract can be considered [13] Polyolefin - The domestic economy is developing steadily. The futures price of polyolefin has accelerated its decline, and the spot price has a limited decline. The supply will increase at the end of the month, while the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to short - sell call options on the 09 - contract [13] Cotton - The domestic manufacturing PMI has risen for two consecutive months, and the overall commodity market sentiment is bullish. The supply of cotton is expected to be tight at the end of the year, but the demand is weak in the off - season. Cotton prices are supported by the supply expectation [13] Rubber - The terminal automotive market is in the off - season, and the demand for rubber is hindered. The supply of rubber raw materials is increasing seasonally, and the inventory at ports has increased for 6 consecutive weeks. Rubber prices have limited upside space [13]

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. June 2025 CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, meeting expectations[3] - The core CPI for June rose by 0.2% month-on-month, slightly below the expected 0.3%, while year-on-year it recorded 2.9%, in line with expectations[3] Key Contributors to Inflation - Energy prices surged, with WTI crude oil averaging an 11% increase month-on-month, contributing to a 0.9% rise in energy CPI[3] - Core goods CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, marking the largest rise since February, and a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, the highest since July 2023[3] - Clothing CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month and showed a year-on-year decline of only 0.5%, indicating a recovery trend[3] Housing and Automotive Prices - Housing services CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the previous value of 0.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8%[3] - New car CPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, while used car prices, as indicated by the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, rose by 1.6% month-on-month and 6.3% year-on-year, suggesting potential future inflation in automotive prices[3] Market Reactions and Risks - The CPI data prompted a quick rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and the dollar index, reflecting investor concerns about sustained inflation[3] - The report highlights the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies and their potential impact on inflation, with risks of higher inflation in Q3 2025[3]

Core Insights - ASML reported strong Q2 2025 results with revenue of €7.7 billion, net profit of €2.3 billion, and a gross margin of 53.7% [1] - The company anticipates continued growth driven by artificial intelligence in the logic and memory chip markets, with EUV business expected to grow by approximately 30% year-over-year [2] - For the full year 2025, ASML expects revenue growth of about 15% and a gross margin of around 52% [3] Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue was €7.7 billion, with service sales contributing €2.1 billion [1] - New orders totaled €5.5 billion, including €2.3 billion in EUV orders [1] - Gross margin for Q2 was 53.7%, exceeding expectations due to service upgrades and lower-than-expected tariff impacts [1] Market Outlook - ASML forecasts Q3 2025 revenue between €7.4 billion and €7.9 billion, with a gross margin between 50% and 52% [2] - The company expects the Chinese market to account for over 25% of revenue, aligning with order backlog [2] - For 2025, the service business is projected to grow by about 20% [2] Long-term Projections - ASML maintains a long-term revenue target of €44 billion to €60 billion by 2030, with gross margins expected to reach 56% to 60% [4] - The company acknowledges increasing uncertainties from macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, including tariffs [4]

德国央行：德国二季度经济恐停滞不前 金十数据7月16日讯，德国央行表示，在今年年初出人意料的强劲扩张之后，德国经济可能在第二季度 未能实现增长。德国央行在周三发布的月度报告中指出，"德国经济在第二季度可能陷入停滞"，因为前 期透支的增长效应正在消退。报告还表示，经济的基本趋势仍然"总体偏弱"。与此同时，它警告称，美 国总统特朗普最近威胁要征收30%的关税，这将构成"相当大的经济下行风险"。德国央行还在报告中指 出，近期情绪指标的改善，部分可能源于市场对更具扩张性的财政政策抱有希望。然而，这种政策对经 济表现的提振预计将滞后显现。同时它补充道，短期内，德国出口行业还将面临来自美国关税政策的额 外阻力。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The crude oil market rating for this week is adjusted from relatively strong to neutral oscillation [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and market sentiment [1][2][3] Summaries by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices fell slightly. In Q2, global oil inventories increased by 2.7%. In the first week of Q3, overall inventories decreased by 0.3%. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices has weakened. The rating is adjusted to neutral oscillation [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: As crude oil prices fall, fuel - related futures follow suit. The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils widens. The FU crack is expected to continue its downward trend, while LU's unilateral movement follows crude oil [21] - **Asphalt**: The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries increased slightly. Supply increase resilience needs further observation. Demand is weak but has recovery expectations. The price follows crude oil, but the upward drive is limited before demand improves [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Middle - East production pressure persists. Overseas prices are oscillating weakly. Domestic supply and demand are both weak, and the market is oscillating weakly [23] Metals - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices oscillated. The impact of tariffs is emerging. The Fed is likely to maintain its current policy. Suggestions for trading include holding short positions or using option strategies [3] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. There is a negative feedback in the spot market during the off - season. There is short - term callback pressure [4] - **Alumina**: Spot prices are rising, but the market is in an oversupply state. The upside is limited, and the futures are unlikely to fall sharply [5] - **Zinc**: Inventory is rising, indicating a supply - surplus and demand - weak situation. The market continues the idea of shorting on rebounds [7] - **Lead**: The external market's inventory accumulation drags down the price. The domestic market is relatively resistant to decline, but there is a risk of following the external market down [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fell sharply. The stainless - steel market is in the off - season. There is still room for a rebound in Shanghai nickel, waiting for a better short - selling position [9] - **Tin**: Overnight, Shanghai tin opened lower and oscillated. The inventory in London is falling. The domestic output is expected to improve marginally. The market continues the short - allocation direction [10] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is oscillating and rebounding. The inventory is rising. The upside is limited, and short positions can be gradually arranged [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices are rising. The fundamentals are improving marginally, and the market is expected to be oscillating strongly [12] - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices are rebounding. The market is expected to be oscillating strongly, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [13] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the demand is relatively stable. The short - term trend follows steel products, and the upward space is limited [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices are oscillating. The supply of carbon elements is abundant. The prices follow steel products and may continue to rise in the short term [16][17] - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: The prices are oscillating. They follow the trend of rebar, with limited upward momentum [18][19] Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices continued to fall. Demand is weak, and the market is affected by the "anti - involution" concept. Pay attention to terminal demand and policies [14] - **Glass**: The market is affected by the real - estate situation. The short - term follows the macro - sentiment, and long - term price increases require supply contraction [33] Chemicals - **Urea**: Supply is sufficient, and agricultural demand is weakening. Pay attention to export - quota policies [24] - **Methanol**: The main contract fluctuates narrowly. Inventory is rising, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The cost support is weakening. There is a seasonal improvement expectation in Q3, and a negative monthly - spread is expected in Q4 [26] - **Styrene**: The cost - end is oscillating, and the supply is sufficient while demand is weak [27] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The futures are oscillating weakly. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are weakening, and caustic - soda prices are oscillating strongly [29] - **PX & PTA**: Prices are oscillating. Pay attention to the repair of PTA's processing margin [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is falling. The short - term is bullish, with the risk of falling oil prices [31] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - chip**: Short - fiber is bullish, while bottle - chip's processing - margin repair is limited [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The USDA report is neutral - bearish. The domestic inventory of soybean meal is increasing. The market is oscillating [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil is in an adjustment state. The long - term idea is to go long on dips [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The external market is in a consolidation phase. The domestic market is expected to oscillate weakly [38] - **Soybean No.1**: Pay attention to weather and policies in the short term [39] - **Corn**: The US corn is growing well. The domestic market is oscillating [40] - **Live Pig**: The supply is abundant in the medium term, and the price has downward pressure [41] - **Egg**: The spot price is rebounding seasonally. The futures' upside is limited, and the long - term cycle has not bottomed out [42] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices are rising due to weather concerns. The domestic market is affected by demand. The inventory is expected to be tight [43] - **Sugar**: The external market is under pressure, and the domestic market is expected to oscillate [44] - **Apple**: The new - season apple price is increasing. The market is bearish on the production estimate [45] - **Timber**: The supply has some positive factors, but the demand is in the off - season, and the price is weak [46] - **Pulp**: The price is rising slightly. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is in the off - season. Temporarily observe or trade short - term [47] Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market shows a divergence. The short - term risk preference is oscillating slightly strongly. Increase the allocation of technology - growth stocks [48] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Prices are rising. The bond market should pay attention to the risk of increased volatility [49] Shipping - **Container Freight Index (Europe Line)**: Spot prices are stable. The 08 contract will converge with the spot, while the 10 - contract's rise is due to multiple factors. It is not recommended to chase the rise [20]

Inflation Overview - In June, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in May and slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%[8] - The core CPI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%, aligning with market expectations[8] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.3%, while the core CPI rose by 0.2%, slightly below the expected 0.3%[8] Core Goods and Services - The impact of tariffs on core goods is beginning to show, with notable increases in clothing and furniture prices, which rose by 0.9 and 0.6 percentage points respectively compared to May[12] - However, inflation in automobiles and pharmaceuticals showed weakness, with declines of 0.5%, 0.3%, and 0.1% respectively, contributing to a 0.2 percentage point drag on CPI[12] - Core services, particularly medical and transportation services, saw a rebound, with airfares increasing by 2.6 percentage points, although still in negative growth territory[14] Future Outlook - Inflation is expected to continue its moderate rise, with tariffs likely to exert further pressure on consumer prices in the coming months[17] - The average tariff rate on U.S. imports was approximately 8.7% in May, reflecting a 6.5 percentage point increase from the end of 2024[17] - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach, with no immediate rate cuts anticipated due to ongoing inflationary pressures[18]

Group 1 - The US Treasury yields are fluctuating near a one-month high, with the 10-year yield stabilizing around 4.48% and the 30-year yield above 5% following a recent increase of 5 basis points [1] - The recent inflation data indicates that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are gradually impacting prices, leading to a decrease in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with the probability of a cut in September now below 50% [1] - The upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data is crucial for assessing the inflationary effects of tariffs, with expectations for a 0.3% month-on-month increase in overall PPI and a 0.2% increase in core PPI, both higher than the previous month's growth [4] Group 2 - The market is reassessing the impact of tariff policies, with analysts highlighting the need to monitor the PPI data for further evidence of tariffs driving inflation [4] - Despite better-than-expected consumer data, some product prices are showing signs of tariff transmission, suggesting potential inflationary pressures in the coming months [4] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming Beige Book will provide insights into the current economic landscape, focusing on overall economic growth, supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages [4]

Report Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] Core View - Overnight, the US announced that the June CPI rebounded to 2.7%, in line with expectations, but the annual and monthly rates of core CPI were slightly lower than expected. After the data release, precious metals declined. The market believes the data is insufficient to change the Fed's wait - and - see stance. With room for negotiation on US tariff policies before the deadline, risk sentiment may fluctuate, and precious metals will mainly trade in a range. Attention should be paid to the US PPI data tonight [1] Industry - related Summaries Tariff - US Treasury Secretary signaled that there's no need to worry about the deadline for suspending additional tariffs between the US and China, and the negotiation "is in good shape" [2] - EU Commission Vice - President will talk with the US Trade Representative [2] - Trump reached a trade agreement with Indonesia, imposing a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods exported to the US, while US exports to Indonesia will enjoy duty - free and non - tariff barrier - free treatment. If goods are transshipped from Indonesia, tariffs will be combined with those of the country of origin [2] - US Commerce Secretary said the US doesn't levy tariffs on raw steel but only on finished steel [2] - Indian central bank governor is hopeful for a good trade agreement [2] Inflation - The US June overall CPI annual rate rose to 2.7%, the highest since February, in line with market expectations; the monthly rate was 0.3%, the highest since January, also in line with expectations. The core CPI annual rate rose to 2.9%, the highest since February, falling short of the expected 3% but up slightly from last month's 2.8%. The monthly rate was 0.2%, lower than the market - expected 0.3% [2] - Interest rate futures show that the possibility of a Fed rate cut this month is very small, but the possibility of a 25 - basis - point cut in September is high [2] - The "Fed whisperer" said the CPI report won't change the Fed's policy direction [2] - Trump said consumer prices are low and the Fed should immediately cut the federal funds rate by 3 percentage points [2] - Fed's Collins expects the core inflation rate to remain at about 3% by the end of the year, and the Fed should be actively patient [2]