Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have surpassed $5000 per ounce, with Goldman Sachs targeting $5400 and Morgan Stanley at $5700 per ounce for 2026 [1] - The driving forces behind gold's strength include a structural shift in central bank gold purchases, with annual purchases exceeding 1000 tons since 2022, and 43% of surveyed central banks planning to increase their gold holdings [2] - The transition in central bank purchasing logic from "reserve ratio targets" to "absolute tonnage targets" is expected to provide ongoing support for gold prices [2] - Continued inflows into gold ETFs, with a total increase of 725 tons from January to mid-December 2025, indicate strong demand, especially with anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - Geopolitical risks have risen significantly, with the geopolitical risk index increasing by 77%, historically correlating with gold price increases [2] - Current net long positions in COMEX gold are at their highest since September 2025, indicating strong market participation [2] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have reached historical highs, driven by its precious metal attributes and a tight supply-demand balance [4] - The strong performance of silver is supported by a significant supply gap and increased ETF holdings, with 2025 seeing the second-highest increase since 2020 [5] - China's physical demand for silver has surged, with local supply constraints leading to a premium of 15% for Shanghai silver over COMEX prices [5] - Despite some structural changes in industrial demand, particularly in the solar sector, applications in AI and other industries are expected to provide support for silver demand [5] - The current gold-silver ratio is at its lowest since 2011, suggesting potential for silver price increases if macroeconomic conditions remain favorable [5] Group 3: Broader Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market is experiencing a clear divergence, with precious metals outperforming industrial metals and bulk commodities [8] - Basic metals have seen limited price increases, with nickel leading due to supply disruptions, while copper prices are supported by macroeconomic factors [6] - Bulk commodities like iron ore have faced downward pressure due to rising inventories, while thermal coal prices have increased due to extreme weather conditions [6] - The outlook for 2026 suggests that precious metals will continue to have upward potential, while industrial metals will benefit from supply constraints and emerging demand [8] - Investors are advised to focus on precious metals and those industrial metals with significant supply-demand gaps, while monitoring geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve policies [9]

2026.01. 26 本文字数：2438，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 高雅 进入2026年，美国宏观经济政策正悬在两个致命的"不确定性"之上：一是美国最高法院对总统关税权力的最 终裁决；二是美联储主席鲍威尔的继任人选。 从本周起，美国最高法院步入长达四周的休庭期，这意味着备受关注的关税案进入了代价昂贵的"空窗期"。 与此同时，美联储新任主席的竞争则来到"白热化"阶段，贝莱德高管里德（Rick Rieder）当前被视为领跑 者。 这两大议题共同构成了当前市场研判的核心变量，全球投资咨询公司BCA Research首席新兴市场/中国策 略师阿瑟·布达吉安（Arthur Budaghyan）对第一财经记者表示，在充分评估上述两大事件的不同情境后， 他的核心观点是"看空美元、减持美股，并对包括美股在内的全球股票市场持谨慎态度"。 关税案悬而未决 去年11月5日，美国最高法院就美国总统特朗普是否有权依据《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）实施关税 一案听取了首轮口头辩论。彼时，摩根大通对政治策略师的调查显示，美国政府依据IEEPA征收的关税在 2025年底前被推翻的概率高达70%。然而，最高法院至今仍未作 ...

钛媒体App 1月26日消息，高盛首席美国经济学家戴维·梅里克（David Mericle）在其投资者报告中称， 预计美联储本周将会按兵不动，而今年接下来可能将有两次降息，首次降息将在6月。（广角观察） ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced a strong rally, with prices increasing nearly $400, approaching the target of $5000 set in October of the previous year, indicating robust bullish momentum and suggesting that prices could reach $6000 within the year [1][11]. Price Movement - Gold opened the week at $4615.41 per ounce, recorded a low of $4615.08, and then rebounded strongly, breaking through key resistance on Tuesday. By Friday, it reached a historical high of $4989.34, closing at $4982.08, marking a weekly increase of $388.01 or 8.45% from the previous week's close of $4594.07 [1][11]. Influencing Factors - Initial demand for gold was driven by geopolitical tensions following U.S. President Trump's warnings of tariffs against several European countries, which heightened market uncertainty and boosted gold prices. Although there were temporary price declines due to Trump's softened stance on threats, renewed warnings about potential retaliation against European asset sales revived safe-haven demand [3][14]. - The expectation of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later in the year also contributed to gold's appeal, as lower interest rates diminish the attractiveness of low-risk assets [3][17]. Market Outlook - The outlook for gold remains bullish, with expectations of continued upward movement. The market is anticipated to test the $5500-$6000 range or higher due to ongoing geopolitical risks, currency depreciation expectations, and central bank purchases [7][18][20]. - Technical analysis indicates that gold has broken through key resistance levels, suggesting the start of a new bull market. If the price maintains its momentum without forming a significant downward pattern, it could see gains exceeding 30% within the year [12][20]. Central Bank Activity - Central banks globally have increased their gold reserves significantly, with China's central bank adding 280 tons in 2025, marking the 18th consecutive month of increases. This trend reflects a shift in reserve allocation strategies and signals strong demand for gold [7][18].

埃吉林斯基在接受采访时表示："美国庞大的债务规模，以及高利率对债务的冲击，可能推动美联储进 一步降息。低利率环境，尤其是在今年晚些时候新任美联储主席上任后，或将成为白银价格的上行推动 力。" 波动率低迷，贵金属却逆势走高 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 降息周期向来是黄金的高光时刻，而本轮周期中，白银或悄然抢占风头。 随着美国债务高企、债务付息成本攀升，即便通胀居高不下，市场仍押注美联储将采取更为宽松的货币 政策。Direxion董事总经理兼销售、分销及另类投资主管埃德・埃吉林斯基（Ed Egilinsky）认为，这一 转变或将为白银打造出一个罕见的强劲宏观利好格局。 波动率是优势而非缺陷 埃吉林斯基指出："从历史来看，白银的波动率向来高于黄金。"他还补充道，白银本轮涨势已然伴随交 易量的持续攀升。若全球经济活动保持韧性，且人工智能和能源领域的投资持续加码，白银在本轮周期 的下一阶段或跑赢黄金。 给投资者的启示 值得关注的是，此次贵金属上涨并非由传统的避险情绪触发。正如埃吉林斯基所言："过去两年，波动 率指数（VIX）基本保持低迷，而黄金和白银却大幅走高。" 这打破了贵金属仅在危机中 ...

Group 1: Gold and Silver Market - Gold prices surged over 8% last week, marking the best weekly performance since 2008, with spot gold reaching a high of $5109.77 and currently hovering around $5090 [1] - Silver also saw significant gains, with London spot silver reaching $108.530 and hitting a historical high of $109.453, accumulating over 50% increase since 2026 [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Leadership - Rick Riedel, a BlackRock executive, has emerged as a leading candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair, with a probability of 54% for his selection, up from just 4% at the beginning of the year [4] - Riedel advocates for a reduction in the benchmark interest rate to around 3%, suggesting a need for a 50 basis point cut to align with the current neutral balance point [4][5] Group 3: Trade Agreements - India and the EU are expected to reach a free trade agreement soon, with India proposing to significantly reduce import tariffs on EU automobiles from 110% to 40% [6] - This tariff reduction is anticipated to benefit European car manufacturers such as Volkswagen, Renault, and Stellantis, as well as luxury brands like Mercedes-Benz and BMW [7] Group 4: U.S. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain current interest rates in its upcoming decision, with analysts suggesting that the first rate cut may be delayed until May, after Powell's term ends [10] - The market is focused on Powell's explanation of maintaining rates amid resilient economic performance and persistent inflation, as well as potential political pressures he may face [10] Group 5: U.S. Military Presence - The U.S. Navy's Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group has arrived in the Middle East, conducting operations under the Central Command, with upcoming military exercises planned [13] - In response to U.S. military deployments, Iranian forces have entered a state of full alert, indicating heightened tensions in the region [14] Group 6: U.S.-Canada Relations - Tensions between the U.S. and Canada are escalating, with President Trump threatening to impose 100% tariffs on Canadian goods if Canada reaches agreements with certain countries [16] - Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau has called for citizens to support local products in response to external threats, signaling a significant shift in Canada's policy towards the U.S. [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical uncertainties have increased, boosting the market's risk - aversion demand and further driving up the prices of precious metals. International gold prices have broken through the $5000 mark, and silver prices have exceeded $100. [2] - Economic data shows that inflationary pressure in the US has eased, and employment remains weak. The Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates in 2026. The loose liquidity environment provides strong support for the rise of precious metals. [2] - For gold, factors such as the wavering of the US dollar's credit, central bank gold purchases, and rising risk aversion support long - term upward trends. [2] - Silver and platinum have both financial and industrial attributes. In addition to being driven by macro factors, they are also supported by supply - demand gaps. Their price centers are expected to rise steadily. Overall, short - term fluctuations do not change the long - term upward trend of precious metals. [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 increased by 28.00 and 28.06 respectively, with increases of 2.57% and 2.58%. The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 increased by 1633 and 1626 respectively, with increases of 7.01% and 6.97%. [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of Shanghai Gold 2606 is 80,602, and the trading volume is 51,175. The open interest of Shanghai Gold 2604 is 206,580, and the trading volume is 288,050. The open interest of Shanghai Silver 2606 is 160,299, and the trading volume is 476,023. The open interest of Shanghai Silver 2604 is 316,349, and the trading volume is 753,712. [1] - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The spot premium and discount of Shanghai Gold 2606 is - 8.03, and that of Shanghai Gold 2604 is - 5.29. The spot premium and discount of Shanghai Silver 2606 is 58, and that of Shanghai Silver 2604 is 23. [1] 3.2 Spot Market - **Price Changes**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D increased by 26.43, with an increase of 2.44%. The closing price of London Gold increased by 25.47, with an increase of 0.51%. The closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D increased by 1622, with an increase of 6.94%. The closing price of London Silver increased by 6.23, with an increase of 6.42%. [1] 3.3 Spread and Ratio - **Spread**: The spread between Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 is 2.74 (previous value: 2.80), and the spread between Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 is - 35.00 (previous value: - 42.00). [1] - **Ratio**: The gold - to - silver ratio (spot) is 44.44 (previous value: 46.39), the ratio of Shanghai Gold to London Gold is 1.00, and the ratio of Shanghai Silver to London Silver is 1.08. [1] 3.4 Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: The inventory of gold in the Shanghai Futures Exchange remains unchanged at 102,009 kg, and the inventory of silver decreased by 7962 kg to 581,090 kg. [1] - **International Inventory**: The inventory of gold in COMEX remains unchanged at 36,144,280 troy ounces, and the inventory of silver decreased by 1,736,840 troy ounces to 416,424,863 troy ounces. [1] 3.5 Related Markets - **Financial Markets**: The US dollar index decreased by 0.78 to 97.50, the S&P 500 index increased by 2.26 to 6,915.61, the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds decreased by 0.02% to 4.24%, and the price of Brent crude oil increased by 0.99 to $65.39. The US dollar against the Chinese yuan increased by 0.0014 to 6.9642. [1] - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The position of SPDR Gold ETF increased by 7 tons to 1,087 tons, the position of SLV Silver ETF decreased by 14 tons to 16,090 tons. The net position of CFTC speculators in gold decreased by 6468 to 244,770, and the net position of CFTC speculators in silver decreased by 6846 to 25,214. [1] 3.6 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic News - **Military Deployment in the Middle East**: The US Navy's "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier strike group has arrived in the Middle East and is conducting operations. The US Air Force will conduct a multi - day combat readiness exercise in the Middle East. Iran's armed forces have entered a state of full alert and will counterattack if attacked. [2] - **Japanese Yen Exchange Rate**: Japanese Prime Minister Takachi Sanae issued a warning about abnormal exchange - rate fluctuations. Traders are on high alert, and the market may reduce short positions in the yen. If the US participates in potential exchange - rate checks, it may affect the global market. [2] - **US Government Shutdown**: US Senate Democrats said they would rather let most government agencies shut down than vote for an appropriation bill that includes immigration enforcement funds. [2] - **US - Greenland Issue**: US President Trump said the US expects to obtain "sovereignty" over the area where US military bases are located in Greenland, but Greenland opposes this. [2]

1月26日，国内期市能化板块多数飘红。其中，合成橡胶期货主力合约开盘报13440.0元/吨，今日盘中 高位震荡运行；截至发稿，合成橡胶主力最高触及13595.0元，下方探低13055.0元，涨幅达2.93%附 近。 国投安信期货表示，目前中国丁二烯基本面偏强，合成橡胶基本面一般，而成本面驱动不断增强，尤其 是外盘丁二烯价格节节攀升，带动内盘及下游合成橡胶上涨，叠加金融市场乐观情绪逐渐蔓延，尤其是 化工品种反内卷及其预期的影响不断扩大。此外，2026年中国将延续宽松的货币政策和积极的财政政 策，预计美联储将进一步加快降息步伐，人民币兑美元汇率不断走强。基于丁二烯价格历史剧烈波动的 特征，对此投资者在市场情绪中保留一定的清醒，密切关注基本面的变化。 光大期货指出，丁二烯橡胶基本面矛盾有限。丁二烯橡胶生产毛利由正转负，周度开工负荷边际下滑。 下游轮胎春节前备货，但受制于目前高位库存天数，出货节奏偏慢，开工负荷抬升空间有限。前期检修 装置如上海石化（600688）、中化泉州、海南炼化等装置陆续在1月底前重启开车，将缓解丁二烯紧缺 压力，预计丁二烯橡胶价格跟随成本端价格。 中泰期货分析称，丁二烯上半年供应端国内难有新增 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a long position for both gold and silver in the precious metals sector [1]. 2. Core View of the Report - The latest data shows that the possibility of the Fed announcing an interest rate cut at the January 28th meeting is almost zero, and the market generally expects the first rate cut this year to be in June. Geopolitical and economic uncertainties, such as the situation in Iran and the disputes between the US and Europe over Greenland, along with the weakening of the US dollar, have driven up the prices of precious metals. Precious metals are experiencing increased short - term volatility, and investors are advised to hold long positions while controlling risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose 1.42% to $4983.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 7.15% to $103.26 per ounce. Shanghai gold's main contract rose 1.66% to 1121.16 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract rose 6.32% to 25650 yuan per kilogram [1]. 3.2 Important Information - As of January 23rd, the global largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust's holdings increased by 6.87 tons to 1086.53 tons, while the global largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust's holdings decreased by 14.1 tons to 16089.98 tons [1]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 2.8%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 97.2%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 15.5%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 84.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.4% [1]. - The EU Commission announced on January 23rd that it would propose to suspend 93 billion euros of retaliatory tariffs against the US for another six months, which was originally scheduled to take effect on February 7th. This followed the US withdrawing its tariff threats against eight European countries over Greenland [1]. - The US is seeking to rewrite its defense agreement with Denmark, aiming to remove restrictions on its military presence in Greenland [1]. - Trump said the US was deploying a large number of troops to Iran, which was seen as the reason for the rise in metal prices on Friday [1]. - On January 23rd, the US January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 51.9 (expected 52, December previous value 51.8), the US January S&P Global Services PMI preliminary value was 52.5 (expected 52.9, December previous value 52.5), and the US January S&P Global Composite PMI preliminary value was 52.8 (expected 53, December previous value 52.7) [1][2]. - On January 23rd, the January euro - zone manufacturing PMI preliminary value rose to 49.4, up 0.6 percentage points from December, higher than the market expectation of 49.1. The euro - zone January services PMI preliminary value was 51.9 (expected 52.6, previous value 52.4), and the euro - zone January composite PMI preliminary value was 51.5 (expected 51.9, previous value 51.5) [2]. - On January 23rd, the Bank of Japan announced to keep the policy interest rate at 0.75%, in line with expectations [2]. 3.3 Market Logic - The low probability of a Fed rate cut in January and the expected rate cut in June, along with continuous geopolitical and economic uncertainties, have increased the demand for precious metals as a safe - haven asset. Silver also benefits from industrial demand. The weakening of the US dollar and the deterioration of US - EU relations have further intensified market risk - aversion sentiment, driving up the metal market [2]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Precious metals are experiencing increased short - term volatility. Investors are advised to hold long positions and control risks [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "weaker than market" rating for the U.S. stock market [6][80]. Core Views - The U.S. economy shows resilient consumer spending, with the November PCE price index rising by 2.8% year-on-year, indicating moderate inflation [1]. - The actual GDP growth for Q3 2025 was revised up to 4.4%, driven by strong exports and consumer resilience, suggesting robust economic expansion [2]. - Concerns over potential sell-offs of U.S. Treasuries by European pension funds due to geopolitical tensions have led to market volatility, with U.S. Treasury yields rising [3][4]. - The long-term fiscal situation in the U.S. remains a concern, with a budget deficit of approximately 6% of GDP, historically associated with economic downturns [4]. Summary by Sections Economic Indicators - The November PCE report aligns with market expectations, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.8% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [1]. - The core PCE also rose by 2.8% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1]. Market Reactions - European pension funds have begun to sell U.S. Treasuries in response to geopolitical risks, with significant amounts being divested [3]. - The market reacted to these developments with declines in major U.S. stock indices and an increase in long-term Treasury yields [3]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a "short duration core + steepening satellite" strategy for U.S. Treasuries, focusing on 3-5 year investment-grade bonds to secure stable coupon income while managing exposure to long-term bonds [4].