鲍威尔的主席任期将于5月中旬结束。白宫发言人Kush Desai表示，在特朗普正式宣布之前，任何关于 美联储主席提名过程的报道都是"毫无意义的猜测"。提名人选须经参议院确认。 政策主张：重视生产率变革，质疑滞后数据 Rieder的核心观点是美联储过度依赖反映过去状况的通胀数据，而对经济变化的关注不足。他认为，人 工智能、自动化和物流带来的生产率提升正在重塑经济和劳动力市场，但传统指标捕捉这些变化的速度 太慢。在他看来，政策决策对经济的影响存在长期滞后。 法国巴黎银行分析师指出，Rieder认同美联储2%的年度通胀目标及其沟通方式，但持有超出共识的经济 展望。他比现任美联储官员更重视生产率提升的规模和持久性，以及这些因素对增长、通胀和劳动力市 场的影响。 独立研究机构42 Macro创始人Darius Dale表示，通胀数据往往在商业周期后期达到峰值，基于这些数据 的政策决策到来得太慢。Dale认为Rieder理解正在进行的生产率转变规模，以及高利率对住房和劳动力 流动性造成的压力。"委员会会呈现主席的个性特征，"Dale说，"在结构性变革时刻，你需要一个理解 市场和经济走向的人。" 住房市场成为政策焦点 贝莱 ...

Core Insights - Large enterprises' spending in the artificial intelligence sector is expected to continue growing exponentially, reshaping the overall economic landscape [1][2][3] Group 1: AI Spending Dynamics - The competitive nature of the industry compels companies to avoid falling behind their rivals, leading to aggressive increases in AI capital expenditures [1][3] - If one company decides to ramp up its AI investments, it will likely force others to follow suit [1][3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Global stock markets experienced significant volatility last fall due to rising concerns over a potential AI stock bubble, which affected market sentiment and increased the risk of stock declines [1][3] - Despite these concerns, strong demand for AI-related stocks is expected to drive major Wall Street indices to record double-digit gains in 2025 [1][3] Group 3: Inflation and Risk Factors - The surge in AI capital spending may exacerbate inflation, as increased demand could raise prices for products within its ecosystem, including chips and electricity [1][3] - This dynamic could elevate risks and create bubble-like conditions in the market [1][3] - Loose monetary policies may further accelerate speculative stock market activities and ongoing mergers and acquisitions, fostering an environment prone to economic overheating [1][3]

2026.01. 27 本文字数：1935，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 当地时间1月27日（周二），为期两天的美联储议息会议在美国华盛顿特区正式召开。 外界普遍预期，联邦公开市场委员会FOMC料将把基准利率维持在当前区间。本次会议不会发布新的经济和 政策预期，但市场目前预计，美联储将暂停进一步降息至5月之后，届时降息举措大概率由鲍威尔的继任者 推动。另一个焦点在于，鲍威尔将如何回应独立性和继任者问题。 降息料按下暂停键 按照日程安排，美联储于美东时间周三下午2点（北京时间周四凌晨3点）公布利率决议，半小时后，美联储 主席鲍威尔将出席新闻发布会。 自去年9月起，美联储连续三次议息会议采取降息，累计降息75个基点，将基准利率下调至3.50%-3.75%的 区间。虽然，重启降息周期源于美国就业市场招聘放缓，然而一系列降息决策的出台过程颇具争议——部分 美联储官员明确反对降息，而理事米兰则主张以更快的节奏下调利率，两派意见的分歧多次公开显现。 第一财经记者汇总发现，上一次会议以来的经济数据显示，美国劳动力市场和通胀趋势均无明显变化，就业 增长表现疲软，但在经济增长和消费支出向好的背景下，12月失业 ...

威尔明顿信托高级债券投资组合经理认为，美联储不会锁定"暂停"立场，主席鲍威尔或将突出政策灵活 性。"此次会议除维稳利率外，不会有太多其他动作。美联储已进入可保持耐心的阶段。" 转自：新华财经 新华财经北京1月27日电 市场普遍预期，美联储将在本周召开的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上 维持联邦基金利率在3.50%–3.75%区间不变。 高盛集团指出，理事沃勒和鲍曼预计将支持维持利率不变，而理事米兰可能成为唯一反对者。高盛首席 美国经济学家预测，美联储2025年将实施两次降息，首次行动将于6月落地。 路透社援引上周五公布的数据称，美国12月非农就业增长放缓幅度超预期，但失业率回落至4.4%，薪 资增长稳健；同期消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，与11月持平，符合市场预期。这些指标强化 了美联储在1月会议按兵不动的合理性。 此前，多位美联储官员近期表态亦指向政策审慎。前堪萨斯城联储主席乔治表示："我的预期是，他们 将释放暂停降息的信号……会维持利率不变相当长一段时间。"纽约联储主席威廉姆斯及美联储理事巴 尔等核心成员亦多次使用"政策处于合理区间"这一措辞，强调决策将基于逐次会议的数据评估，而非预 设路 ...

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market is experiencing a significant surge in gold and silver prices, driven by global economic uncertainty, with gold reaching $5087.3 per ounce and silver nearing $109.4 per ounce, marking historical highs [2][10]. Price Surge - Gold futures have skyrocketed to $5087.3 per ounce, with a daily increase of 2.16% and trading volume exceeding 130,000 contracts, up from approximately $4000 at the end of 2025 [2][9]. - Silver futures are approaching $109.4 per ounce, having surged 7.96% in a single day, with prices increasing from around $30 at the beginning of 2025 to over $100, driven by supply shortages and high demand [3][10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The dramatic price increases are attributed to a tangible supply-demand imbalance, with global supply chain disruptions and mineral shortages leading to near depletion of silver inventories [4][11]. - Silver's role as a critical raw material for solar panels, electric vehicles, and electronic products has resulted in explosive demand, further driving prices upward [11][13]. Futures and Options Market Activity - The futures and options markets are acting as accelerators for this metal surge, with significant trading activity in out-of-the-money call options for silver, indicating strong investor sentiment for further price increases [4][12]. - The options market has seen a surge in open interest for call options with strike prices of $68, $70, and even $100, reflecting a bullish outlook among traders [4][12]. Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The current market trends are influenced by escalating global geopolitical tensions, such as ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, prompting investors to flock to gold as a safe-haven asset [6][13]. - Investment banks have raised their gold price forecasts for the end of 2026 to $5400, citing increased demand for safe assets and diversification of central bank reserves [6][13]. Investment Strategies - For ordinary investors, engaging in ETFs like GLD (gold) or SLV (silver) is recommended, while experienced investors may consider small positions in futures and options to leverage potential returns [6][13]. - The current environment suggests that gold and silver futures and options are essential tools for navigating economic uncertainty, with a call to action for investors to seize opportunities while managing risks [6][13].

市场普遍预期美联储将在本周的政策会议上维持利率不变，此前美联储已计划在2025年底前连续三次降 息。因此，各方关注的焦点将是官员们是否会暗示他们计划维持利率不变多久。 高盛集团预计，美联储将在本周的议息会议上维持利率不变。该行指出，沃勒和鲍曼两位理事可能支持 这一决定，而特朗普去年刚任命的理事米兰将成为唯一持反对意见者。 高盛首席美国经济学家戴维・梅里克尔（David Mericle）在投资者报告中表示，预计美联储今年将实施 两次降息，首次降息落地6月。 美联储去年曾于9月、10月、12月三次降息，当前政策利率区间已调至3.50%-3.75%，这些举措也是美联 储在劳动力市场增长放缓、经济数据走弱背景下释放的货币宽松信号。 梅里克尔称，市场预计美联储主席鲍威尔将在此次会议上强调，此前的降息举措将助力稳定劳动力市 场，目前美联储已具备充分条件评估降息的实际效果。 安永帕特农首席经济学家格雷戈里・达科（Gregory Daco）表示，当前利率已接近中性水平，且通胀率 更接近3%而非2%的目标，未来降息的前提是，有明确证据表明通胀持续回落，或就业市场再度恶化。 "货币政策或已接近中性，这意味着未来的宽松举措将推进得 ...

General Information - Report Title: Exchange Rate High-Frequency Tracking [1] - Analysts: Zhang Jing (Qualification No. F3022617, Investment Consultation No. Z0013604), Cheng Xiaoqing (Qualification No. F3083989, Investment Consultation No. Z0018635) [2] Report Core View - The recent upward movement of the 10V US Treasury yield and dollar fluctuations are mainly due to three factors: the risk of a stronger US Treasury yield caused by a stable US labor market and strong inflation; the tariff uncertainty from the "Greenland conflict" reigniting concerns about de-dollarization; and the spillover effect of Japanese bond yields. If inflation remains at a relatively high level and the labor market stays in a "low-speed balance," the short-term path of Fed monetary easing may be unsupported, and the dollar index may show a "weak first, then strong" pattern [2] Summary by Related Content Exchange Rate Core Logic - The risk of a stronger US Treasury yield is due to a stable US labor market, especially the unemployment rate, and strong inflation. As the PMI employment index and initial jobless claims have not deteriorated significantly, the market's expectation of this year's interest rate cut has been postponed [2] - The "Greenland conflict" has led to tariff uncertainty, reigniting concerns about de-dollarization. Trump's policies have affected some sovereign investors' asset allocation decisions, and if policy uncertainty persists, it may lead to a broader reevaluation of US Treasury asset allocation by international capital [2] - The spillover effect of Japanese bond yields: On January 19, Kao Ichimasa announced the dissolution of the parliament for early elections and proposed more radical tax cuts, causing market concerns about the deterioration of Japan's fiscal situation. Poor Japanese bond auction results have also deepened concerns about long-term bond demand [2] Economic Index Tracking - The difference between the US and European Citi Economic Surprise Index has rebounded [3] - The difference between the US and European long-term inflation expectations is in a certain range [5] - The difference between the US and European short-term interest rate expectations has increased [7] - The US long-term inflation expectation has risen [7] - The US short-term interest rate expectation has changed [9] - The VIX index has fallen back to a low level [11] - The euro swap basis shows that the pressure on cross-border dollar liquidity is limited [13] - The CFTC net position shows that the dollar maintains a net negative position exposure [17] - The term spread continues to narrow when looking at US Treasury deficit concerns and the dollar trend from the 30 - 10Y spread (in reverse order) and the 10Y swap spread [19] Correlation with Other Assets - There is a certain relationship between the dollar index and the gold-to-copper ratio [24] - There is a relationship between the dollar and copper prices, and copper prices have changed [27] - There is an inverse relationship between the dollar and crude oil prices, and crude oil prices have changed [29] - There is a relationship between the US dollar-yuan central parity rate and the spot exchange rate [35]

作者 2026 年 1 月 26 日 日本央行按兵不动，地缘风险扰动全球市场 ——海外宏观周报（2026.1.19-2026.1.25） | | | 名称 | 2026/1/25 | 一周涨跌幅 | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 作者 | | 上证指数 | 4136 | 0.84% | 4.22% | | 东方金诚 研究发展部 | | 深证成指 | 14440 | 1.11% | 6.76% | | | | 标普 500 | 6916 | -0.35% | 1.02% | | 分析师 徐嘉琦 | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 49099 | -0.53% | 2.15% | | | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23501 | -0.06% | 1.12% | | 执行总监 冯琳 | 股市 | 英国富时 100 | 10143 | -0.90% | 2.14% | | | | 德国 DAX | 24901 | -1.57% | 1.68% | | | | 法国 CAC40 | 8143 | -1.40% | -0.08% | | | | 日经 225 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the upcoming January FOMC meeting will maintain interest rates unchanged, focusing on the tone of the statement [1][2] Group 1: FOMC Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to keep the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, indicating a tactical adjustment rather than a return to a tightening cycle [2] - The statement is likely to upgrade the economic growth assessment from "moderate" to "robust" and remove references to "increased risks to employment," suggesting reduced concerns about the labor market [2][4] - Morgan Stanley predicts a dissenting vote from a board member advocating for a 50 basis point rate cut [2] Group 2: Market Strategy and Liquidity - Despite the Fed's pause on rate cuts, the short-term financing market remains loose, with repo rates normalizing below the interest on reserve balances (IORB), indicating an "excessively ample" cash situation [5] - The Fed is expected to maintain reserve levels by purchasing $40 billion in Treasury bills monthly, with projections for the SOMA account holdings to exceed $600 billion by the end of 2026 [6] Group 3: Currency Outlook - Morgan Stanley has revised its outlook on the foreign exchange market, now projecting a stronger U.S. economy with a GDP growth forecast of 2.4% for 2026, delaying the anticipated rate cuts [8] - Despite this, the firm maintains a moderately bearish view on the dollar due to synchronized global growth and undervaluation of the Japanese yen, which is expected to converge [9] Group 4: Asset Class Focus - In the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) sector, the significant $200 billion purchase plan by government-sponsored enterprises has led to a narrowing of MBS spreads, prompting a neutral stance from Morgan Stanley [11] - The municipal bond market shows solid fundamentals but is considered expensive, with low yield ratios compared to corporate bonds, raising concerns about sustainability if the Fed signals ambiguity rather than a clear dovish stance [11]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月26日 美元债双周报（26 年第 4 周） 弱于大市 地缘风险与财政隐忧下美债利率升至半年新高 美国 11 月 PCE 物价指数符合预期，通胀温和且支出稳健。1 月 22 日美国经 济分析局发布的 11 月 PCE 报告显示，PCE 物价指数同比上涨 2.8%，环 比上涨 0.2%，均与市场预期一致，反映通胀温和运行。剔除食品和能源 后的核心 PCE 同比亦上涨 2.8%，环比增长 0.2%，同样符合预期。报告 同时指出，美国个人支出在 11 月保持稳健增长，显示消费者支出依然 是经济增长的重要支撑，不过储蓄率进一步下滑，这或对中长期消费动 力构成一定压力。核心 PCE 维持在较高水平但未显著超预期，表明通胀 压力虽有所缓解但仍高于美联储 2%的长期目标。 2025 年第三季度美国实际 GDP 终值年化季环比增速上修至 4.4%，略超预期， 达两年最快。增长由出口增强、库存变化负面影响减小及消费韧性驱动， 表明经济扩张动力强。同期核心 PCE 终值维持在 2.9%，高于美联储 2% 目标，通胀具粘性。强劲增长与稳健就业使市场预计美联储 1 月将按兵 不动。CME 美联储观察工 ...