Core Viewpoint - Investors are accelerating the sell-off of U.S. long-term bond funds, leading to the largest outflow since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic five years ago [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Outflows - In the second quarter of this year, U.S. long-term bond funds, which include government and corporate bonds, experienced a net outflow of nearly $11 billion, breaking the trend of approximately $20 billion in inflows over the past 12 quarters [2]. - This significant redemption is occurring amid growing concerns about the U.S. fiscal outlook, with analysts predicting that the outflow could match or exceed the levels seen during the market turmoil in early 2020 [2][3]. Group 2: Concerns Over U.S. Fiscal Health - The large scale of U.S. debt is a core factor causing investor unease, with the "Big Beautiful" plan proposed by Trump potentially adding trillions to the national debt over the next decade [3]. - Despite claims from the White House that tariffs and faster economic growth will help reduce debt, the market remains cautious [3]. - Investors are also preparing for potential higher inflation due to tariffs on major trading partners, which is a significant concern for bond investors as it erodes the real value of fixed interest payments [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The outflow of funds reflects concerns about the long-term sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy, with high inflation and a large supply of government bonds contributing to market volatility [3]. - Long-term U.S. Treasury prices have dropped about 1% this quarter, with the 30-year Treasury yield recently falling to 4.816% [3]. Group 4: Shift to Short-Term Bonds - In contrast to the long-term bonds, over $39 billion has flowed into short-term U.S. bond funds this quarter, driven by the Federal Reserve maintaining high short-term interest rates, making these funds attractive in the current uncertain market [6]. Group 5: Long-Term Outlook - Despite the significant outflows, some experts remain cautiously optimistic about the long-term role of the U.S. Treasury market, suggesting that investors may diversify into international bonds but do not foresee the end of U.S. Treasuries as a core holding in global fixed-income portfolios [7]. - However, market participants may start demanding more compensation for holding bonds further out on the yield curve [7].

FICC日报 | 2025-06-26 以伊冲突生效，北约发表联合宣言 市场分析 国内5月经济仍待夯实。5月国内数据好坏参半，5月投资数据整体走弱，尤其是地产边际压力再增，后续或将拖累 财政收入，及整个地产链条；同时出口也略有承压，5月"抢出口"成色一般，叠加美国5月零售销售走弱，前期需 求透支下，后续外需预计将承压；5月仅有消费表现韧性，6月20日新华社发布后续以旧换新国补将继续下达。6月 24日，央行等六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》。6月25日央行开展3000亿元MLF操作， 6月中期流动性净投放总额已达3180亿元。面对关税下的外需压力和内部的稳增长诉求，关注财政进一步加码的可 能。6月9-10日，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦举行，落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经 贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。关于7月9日到期的关税延后政策，6 月12日特朗普政府首次公开承认其关税时间表存在灵活性。美国暂缓关税的截止日逼近，欧盟准备采取更多关税 反制措施以对美施压；加拿大与美国力争在30天内达成贸易协议，两国贸易谈判代表们本周将会面三次。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the potential impact of proposed tariffs by the Trump administration on inflation and economic stability, as articulated by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell during a Senate hearing [2] - Powell indicated that while tariffs might cause a one-time increase in prices, the long-term inflation risks should not be overlooked, emphasizing the need for the Federal Reserve to adopt a cautious approach to maintain price stability and economic health [2] - The actual impact of tariffs on prices could exceed expectations, depending on the scale, implementation, and market reactions, suggesting that the Federal Reserve must manage these risks carefully [2] Group 2 - In the gold market, prices showed narrow fluctuations, with the current price at $3331.27 per ounce, reflecting a slight decline of 0.02% [1] - The gold price opened at $3332.09 per ounce, reaching a high of $3339.76 and a low of $3328.99 during the trading session [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is likely to face resistance below $3342.00 and support above $3311.00, with potential targets for downward movement set between $3316.00 and $3301.00 [3]

然而，如果这种成本冲击持续存在并导致企业普遍提价，进而影响通胀预期，那么它就可能演变成更广 泛、更持久的通胀压力，迫使美联储采取行动。 基于对 5 月份个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数报告的预测，表面上看，5 月份的 PCE 数据预计将显示通 胀压力保持温和，总体和核心 PCE 的月度增幅均预计维持在 0.1%，同比增幅也仅小幅上升。 然而，这份温和的数据仅是"关税冰山一角"的尖端，真正的通胀冲击尚未到来，而这，正是当前经济和 金融市场面临的最大不确定性来源。 经济学家们的共识是明确的：近期实施或上调的关税，其对消费者价格的全面影响将在未来几个月内逐 步显现。这种延迟效应是供应链传导的必然结果。 关税首先影响的是进口商的成本，这些成本需要时间通过批发商、分销商，最终转嫁到零售价格上。此 外，零售商在清空关税前进口的低成本库存之前，可能不会立即提价。这解释了为何 5 月份的数据未能 捕捉到关税的全部影响。 关键在于影响的幅度和时机。 虽然高盛和摩根大通对全面影响显现的具体时间点（夏季末 vs. 秋季初）略有分歧，但他们都同意影响 将是显著的。目前 5%-6% 的有效关税税率预计将在年底前翻倍甚至更多，达到 10% ...

2025年06月26日 | 铜：库存持续回落，支撑价格 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 铝：高位震荡 | 4 | | 氧化铝：小幅反弹 | 4 | | 铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 4 | | 锌：区间调整 | 6 | | 铅：偏强运行 | 7 | | 镍：远端镍矿端预期松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 8 | | 不锈钢：供需边际双弱，钢价低位震荡 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 06 月 26 日 铜：库存持续回落，支撑价格 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 78,680 | 0.25% | 78720 | 0.05% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,727 | 0.65% | - | ...

Group 1 - Trump is considering announcing a successor to Powell as early as this summer or fall, aiming to influence market expectations and monetary policy before Powell's term ends [1] - The Federal Reserve plans to relax a key capital requirement criticized by large banks, reducing the capital requirement for holding companies from 5% to a range of 3.5% to 4.5%, and for bank subsidiaries from 6% to the same range [1] - The European Commission is set to propose guidance on the interchangeability of stablecoins issued outside the EU with those circulating only within the EU market, promoting the idea of a digital euro as essential for European financial sovereignty [2] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's committee member suggests a decisive interest rate hike may be necessary to address accelerating inflation, which is exceeding previous forecasts [3] - The Federal Housing Finance Agency has directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to incorporate cryptocurrency into mortgage loan risk assessments, although not all cryptocurrencies will be accepted [2] Group 3 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 106.59 points, closing at 42,982.43, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 61.02 points, closing at 19,973.55 [5] - COMEX gold futures decreased by 1.66% to $3,338.5 per ounce, while WTI crude oil futures for August rose by 0.85% to $64.92 per barrel [6]

日度报告——综合晨报 北约宣布 2035 年前增加军费开支 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-26 宏观策略（国债期货） 国务院副总理：我国经济顶住压力保持向好态势 股票上涨很可能是下半年债市面临的一个风险，但股市走强对 于债市的影响是偏短期的。多头可继续持有，关注逢回调买入 策略。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 北约宣布 2035 年前增加军费开支 综 特朗普准备提前任命美联储主席，这会对于市场产生明显的影 响，市场预计降息速度会有所上升，美元短期走弱。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 国泰君安国际获批可提供虚拟资产交易服务 报 国泰君安国际获批可提供虚拟资产交易服务，带动金融板块大 幅拉升，沪指创年内新高。市场成交大幅放量。高估值下市场 情绪依然火热。 农产品（棉花） 欧盟服装进口：4 月份增速明显下降 对中国进口疲软 据棉花信息网公布的数据显示，处于纺织淡季的 6 月上半月，国 内棉花的商业库存继续快速去化，这在一定程度上增强了市场 对年度后期陈作供应偏紧的担忧。 有色金属（铜） ICSG：4 月全球铜市供应短缺 3.8 万吨 宏观因素短期对铜价仍相对偏支撑，基本面供需两弱对盘面影 ...

Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - The tariff negotiations are currently stalled, with little progress made since Trump's announcement to delay "reciprocal tariffs" for 90 days [4] - The U.S. is in a deadlock with Japan over auto tariffs, and no breakthroughs were achieved during the G7 summit [4] - The market is closely watching how Trump will handle the impending expiration of the 90-day delay, with potential for either further delays or a return to "reciprocal tariffs" [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - Trump has publicly pressured the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 2 to 3 percentage points, claiming it could save the U.S. over $800 billion annually [6] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated a cautious approach, acknowledging that tariffs have raised short-term inflation expectations, but suggested that a weak labor market could lead to earlier rate cuts [6] - Other Fed officials have also signaled support for a rate cut in July, with a consensus forming around the idea that inflation is no longer a primary concern [6] Group 3: Israel-Iran Conflict - The Israel-Iran conflict has escalated again shortly after a ceasefire, with Trump warning Israel against further attacks [9] - The conflict is closely tied to oil prices, and any escalation could lead to significant increases in oil prices, impacting U.S. inflation and the need for rate cuts [9] - Despite Trump's calls for increased shale oil production, U.S. shale producers have been reducing drilling activity due to various market pressures [9] Group 4: Overall Challenges - Trump faces intertwined challenges from tariffs, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the Israel-Iran conflict, which collectively represent significant hurdles [13] - The decisions made in response to these challenges will have direct implications for the U.S. economy and political landscape in the near future [13]

家人们，昨晚美股又炸锅了！英伟达股价直接飙涨4.33%，市值突破3.77万亿美元，把微软、苹果远远甩在身后。更夸张的是，Loop Capital直接放话，这 公司未来市值能摸到6万亿美元！这相当于在现有基础上再翻个65%，简直是给整个科技圈丢了颗原子弹啊！ 作为在财经圈摸爬滚打20年的老炮儿，我得给大家泼点冷水。英伟达现在确实是AI时代的"石油公司"，OpenAI训练大模型、特斯拉搞自动驾驶都得找它 买芯片，连苹果都花10亿美元买它的AI服务器。但最近有消息说，微软、谷歌这些大客户因为Blackwell机架过热问题，暂时削减了订单。而且黄仁勋悄 悄减持了10万股，虽说持股比例还剩4%，但这信号值得留意。毕竟，再牛的公司也得防着点"见顶"风险。 再来说说美联储主席鲍威尔。他在国会听证会上反复强调，关税对通胀的影响仍是个大问题。我查了下，美联储内部对关税的看法分歧很大。纽约联储 主席威廉姆斯预计，关税可能导致今年美国经济增长放缓至1%，通胀率升至3%。而高盛、摩根士丹利这些投行，已经开始下调降息预期。这意味着啥？ 未来美股可能要面临"高利率+高通胀"的双重压力，尤其是依赖低息环境的科技股，得小心回调风险。 国际油 ...

周三，美股表现稳健，标普500指数变化不大，再度逼近其历史高点，引发市场广泛关注。 与此同时，纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.3%，道琼斯工业平均指数则下跌0.3%。 | 美股指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | 42982.43 | 19973.55 | 6092.16 | | -106.59 -0.25% | +61.02 +0.31% | -0.02 0.00% | | 中国金龙指数 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 7380.73 | 22472.50 | 6146.00 | | -44.55 -0.60% +59.75 +0.27% -0.25 -0.25 - 0.00% | | | | 美国国债 | | | | 3个月期 | 10年期 | 2年期 | | 4.288 | 4.291 | 3.779 | | △ 1.55bp | ▼ 0.59bp | ▼ 4.02bp | 此前一日，随着市场押注伊朗与以色列之间的停火协议有望持续，油价大幅回落，标普500单日上涨逾1%。油价连续两日暴跌， 成为市场反弹的重要推力，其中美国西德 ...