Core Insights - The proportion of Japanese companies prioritizing mainland China as a production base has decreased to 16.2%, down 7.6 percentage points from the previous survey in 2019, indicating concerns over US-China tariff negotiations and geopolitical risks [2][4] - The overall percentage of Japanese companies establishing production or sales bases overseas has dropped to 18.3%, a decline of 6.4 percentage points compared to pre-COVID levels [4] Group 1: Production Base Preferences - After mainland China, the next most prioritized locations for production bases are Vietnam (7.9%), Thailand (5.3%), and Taiwan (2.7%) [6] - The survey indicates a significant shift in focus away from China for production, reflecting broader trends in global supply chain adjustments [2][6] Group 2: Sales Base Preferences - Mainland China remains the top choice for sales bases at 12.3%, but this represents a decline of 13.6 percentage points from the last survey [6] - The United States ranks second for sales bases at 8.2%, followed by Thailand at 6.2%, highlighting a shift in market focus [6] Group 3: Impact of Tariff Negotiations - 13.5% of surveyed companies reported that US tariff negotiations had a "significant impact" on their overseas operations, including adjustments to locations and market exits [6] - 42.5% of companies acknowledged "some degree of impact," citing increased costs and the need to revise local procurement strategies [6]

Group 1 - The current spot gold price is around $4043.95 per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.51% [1] - Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, there has been a significant shift in the international economic landscape, leading to a surge in central banks' gold reserves [2] - The average gold reserve ratio for global central banks is approximately 20%, while China's is only 8%, indicating a potential increase in gold purchases by central banks aiming for a target of 30% [2] Group 2 - Gold ETF holdings have seen a remarkable increase of 17% this year, reflecting a shift in investor strategies towards hard assets amid high inflation [2][3] - The continuous rise in gold ETF holdings demonstrates strong market interest from both institutional and retail investors in gold as a valuable investment [3] - By 2026, the market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will likely maintain a rate-cutting cycle, which could further support gold prices due to low interest rates and a weak dollar [3] Group 3 - The current technical analysis of gold indicates a weak trend, with moving averages pointing downwards and a potential strategy of shorting before a rebound [4] - Key support levels are identified around $4025, with resistance levels between $4050 and $4100, suggesting a cautious trading approach [4] - Market participants are advised to monitor the strength of the European session to inform trading decisions in the U.S. session [4]

Core Viewpoint - The current market dynamics for gold are influenced by geopolitical tensions and shifts in U.S. monetary policy, leading to a bearish short-term outlook for gold prices [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - As of November 24, gold is trading around $4046.91 per ounce, with a decline of 0.46% and a trading range between $4076.69 and $4042.45 [1]. - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are largely driven by market reactions to U.S. Federal Reserve policy signals and geopolitical events, particularly the ongoing Ukraine conflict [2][4]. - The market is currently showing a bearish trend for gold, with expectations of further declines unless key resistance levels are breached [5]. Group 2: U.S. Federal Reserve Influence - The recent comments from New York Fed President Williams, who adopted a dovish stance, have significantly shifted market expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Fed, with the probability of a December rate cut rising from below 30% to over 50%, nearing 70% [2][3]. - There is a notable division within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policy, with some officials advocating for a pause on rate cuts while others support them, adding to market uncertainty [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, remains a critical factor influencing market sentiment and investment decisions [4]. - Developments in Japan and the changing dynamics between the U.S. and Venezuela are also highlighted as significant influences on the global economic and political landscape [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, crude oil prices fluctuated downward. Geopolitical concerns weakened, leading to a significant drop in oil prices in the second half of the week. The short - term oil price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The recommended short - term trading range for oil futures is 435 - 465, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - **Price Movement**: New York Mercantile Exchange's main light crude oil futures closed at $57.98 per barrel, down 3.06% for the week; Brent crude oil futures in London closed at $61.89 per barrel, down 3.73% for the week; and Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 446.4 yuan per barrel, down 2.40% for the week [3]. - **Positive Factors**: At the beginning of the week, the uncertainty of Russian energy supply supported oil prices. Ukraine's drone attack on a Russian oil depot and a ship in the port of Novorossiysk led to a two - day suspension of loading operations. The port exported about 700,000 barrels of Russian oil per day in September and October. The US sanctions on Russian oil and gas also partially boosted oil prices [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Later in the week, news of a potential cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict weakened geopolitical concerns and caused oil prices to drop significantly. The number of speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures increased, while the number of speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil futures decreased [3]. 3.2 Related News - **US Sanctions**: The US listed Russian oil giants Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC on the blacklist. Asian buyers, especially Indian refiners, are scrambling to find alternative supplies. The freight rate for chartering tankers from the Middle East has reached a nearly five - year high. However, Russian oil exports remain stable for now, with about 3.4 million barrels per day of seaborne shipments [4]. - **Indian Oil Purchase**: Indian Reliance Industries bought 1 million barrels of heavy crude oil from Kuwait Petroleum Company through a tender [5]. - **Fed's Policy**: The Fed's October meeting minutes revealed a heated debate on whether to cut interest rates in December. After a series of official speeches, the probability of a December interest rate cut expected by traders in the interest rate futures market rose to over 70% [5]. - **US - Venezuela Tension**: The US ambassador to the United Nations reiterated that the US will take "decisive action" against Venezuela. A US strike group led by the USS Gerald R. Ford arrived in the Caribbean Sea, raising speculation about a wider US attack on Venezuela [5]. 3.3 Outlook - Geopolitical concerns continue to weaken, and the implementation of subsequent sanctions on Russia remains to be seen. The short - term oil price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Short - term trading is recommended in the range of 435 - 465, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various crude oil varieties showed mixed trends. The price of UK Brent Dtd increased by 0.63% to $63.54, while the price of WTI decreased by 0.43% to $59.43 [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The Cushing inventory decreased by 698,000 barrels to 21.821 million barrels as of November 14. The EIA inventory decreased by 3.426 million barrels to 424.155 million barrels on the same date [11][12]. 3.5持仓数据 - **CFTC Fund Net Long Positions**: As of the week of October 7, the number of speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil futures decreased by 28,991 contracts to 74,309 contracts [3][19]. - **ICE Fund Net Long Positions**: As of November 18, the number of speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures increased by 13,497 contracts to 178,364 contracts [3][20].

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for gold prices remains optimistic despite recent fluctuations, driven by expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical risks [1][5]. Market Performance - Gold prices opened at $4084.59 per ounce, hitting a weekly low of $3997.78 before reaching a high of $4132.38, ultimately closing at $4064.80, reflecting a weekly range of $134.6 and a decline of $19.79 or 0.48% [3]. - The market is currently experiencing a consolidation phase, with expectations of a bullish trend in the longer term, despite short-term resistance [3][5]. Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve has not indicated an end to the easing cycle, with many officials suggesting further policy loosening over time, which supports the case for future rate cuts [5]. - Recent strong employment data and mixed signals from Fed officials have tempered immediate rate cut expectations, but the overall sentiment remains that a rate cut in early next year is likely [5][9]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions and the potential for a global rate cut cycle in 2026 are providing strong support for gold prices [5]. - The absence of employment data due to government shutdowns raises concerns about decision-making and unemployment rates, further underpinning gold's appeal as a safe haven [5]. Technical Analysis - On a weekly basis, gold prices closed above the 10-week moving average, indicating potential for further gains, with the 10-week moving average serving as a key support level [7]. - The current price action suggests a consolidation within a triangular pattern, with key resistance at $4230 and support levels at $3930 and $4045 [9].

Core Points - The article discusses a revised "peace plan" drafted by the UK, France, and Germany aimed at countering a previous proposal from the US, focusing on substantial security guarantees for Ukraine [1] - The European proposal rejects US terms regarding limitations on Ukraine's military and territorial concessions, highlighting significant transatlantic disagreements on conflict resolution [1] - The plan suggests that Ukraine should receive security guarantees similar to NATO's Article 5 from the US, and proposes a military personnel cap of 800,000 for Ukraine during peacetime, which is higher than the US's suggested cap of 600,000 [2] Group 1: Security Guarantees - The core demand of the European allies is for the US to provide a security guarantee that mirrors NATO's collective defense clause, which would obligate the US to respond to any further aggression against Ukraine [2] - The proposal emphasizes that discussions on territorial exchanges can only occur after a complete cessation of hostilities along the current front lines [3] Group 2: Territorial Negotiations - The European stance is firm against any preemptive recognition of territories as "de facto Russian territory," rejecting US suggestions for Ukraine to withdraw from certain areas [3] - The European leaders, along with G7 members, have publicly dismissed the notion that Ukraine's borders could be reduced or that its military capabilities should be limited [3] Group 3: Economic Compensation and Asset Management - There is a significant divergence between US and European proposals regarding the use of frozen Russian assets, with the US suggesting investment in reconstruction while Europe insists these assets remain frozen until full compensation is made to Ukraine [4] - The European proposal includes a phased lifting of sanctions if Russia complies with the agreement, allowing for a gradual reintegration into the global economy [5] Group 4: Ongoing Diplomatic Efforts - Diplomatic discussions are ongoing, with a meeting scheduled in Geneva involving US, Ukrainian, and European security advisors to draft a proposal that includes Russian participation [6] - Despite clear differences, there is a constructive atmosphere in negotiations, with some elements of the US proposal being acceptable to European leaders [6]

Group 1 - Japan's economic reliance on China is significant, with approximately 20% of Japan's total exports going to China, while China's reliance on Japan has decreased to a historical low of 4.5% in terms of imports [1] - The tourism sector in Japan is heavily dependent on Chinese visitors, with the prosperity of locations like Kyoto and Hokkaido closely tied to their travel intentions [1] - The recent surge in Japanese stock markets is primarily driven by international investors, such as Warren Buffett, rather than Chinese investment institutions, indicating a shift in capital dynamics [1] Group 2 - The recent high-profile incident in Japan may trigger widespread economic backlash from the public, similar to the 2016 response in South Korea, where entertainment exports to China plummeted by 37% [3] - Political instability in Japan, characterized by frequent changes in leadership, could undermine economic policies and investor confidence, leading to a negative feedback loop between politics and economics [3][5] - Japan's lack of natural resources and innovation, combined with a reliance on overseas asset returns from the "lost three decades," poses a significant challenge for sustaining its developed economy [5]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil refining industry. Core Insights - The report highlights that spring orders are beginning to be released in certain regions, and the profitability of polyester filament continues to improve [1]. Summary by Sections Domestic and International Refining Project Price Differentials - As of November 21, 2025, the domestic key refining project price differential is 2389.69 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 52.43 CNY/ton (+2.24%). The international key refining project price differential is 1446.16 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 6.66 CNY/ton (+0.46%) [2][3]. Refining Sector - The report notes that the end of the U.S. government shutdown is expected to boost demand. Geopolitical tensions, particularly the attack on the Russian port of Novorossiysk, raise concerns about supply disruptions from Russia. The Brent and WTI crude oil prices as of November 21, 2025, are 62.56 USD/barrel and 58.06 USD/barrel, respectively, reflecting decreases of 1.83 USD and 2.03 USD from the previous week [2][15]. Chemical Sector - The chemical price differentials are showing a fluctuating trend. Polyethylene prices are stable, while polypropylene demand remains weak, leading to price declines. The report indicates that the price of pure benzene remains stable, with a slight increase in its price differential [2][57]. Polyester & Nylon Sector - Demand for polyester filament is gradually being released, with product prices and profits showing slight increases. The report mentions that two new production facilities have been commissioned, although they have not yet started production. The prices of nylon fiber products have slightly increased, while the price differential has significantly decreased [2][57]. Stock Performance of Major Refining Companies - As of November 21, 2025, the stock price changes for six major private refining companies over the past week are as follows: Rongsheng Petrochemical (-9.17%), Hengli Petrochemical (-5.29%), Dongfang Shenghong (-3.44%), Hengyi Petrochemical (-3.01%), Tongkun Co. (-6.04%), and Xin Fengming (-9.63%). Over the past month, stock price changes are: Rongsheng Petrochemical (+4.58%), Hengli Petrochemical (+14.38%), Dongfang Shenghong (+7.91%), Hengyi Petrochemical (+10.44%), Tongkun Co. (+11.55%), and Xin Fengming (+7.98%) [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the gold market, highlighted by a significant drop in gold prices, is primarily driven by the Russian central bank's unexpected sale of gold reserves to address fiscal challenges, alongside changing market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [1][5][11]. Market Dynamics - On November 21, gold prices experienced a dramatic fluctuation, peaking at $4088 per ounce before plummeting to a low of $4025.38, marking a single-day movement exceeding $50 [3]. - The London gold price as of November 22 was $4063.94 per ounce, reflecting a slight decline of 0.35% from the previous trading day, while the Shanghai gold market showed an increase of 0.49% to 932.03 yuan per gram, indicating a divergence in market behavior [3][5]. Influencing Factors - The market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's policy changes is crucial, with expectations for a December rate cut dropping from over 90% to 32.8%, while the probability of maintaining current rates rose to 60.4% [3]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to create uncertainty, impacting gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [5][11]. Technical Analysis - Current gold prices are at a critical juncture, with short-term traders' positions concentrated around $4050. A breakout in either direction could trigger significant market reactions [7]. - Analysts predict three potential scenarios for gold prices: a rebound towards $4200, a range-bound movement between $3950 and $4150, or a slight pullback testing support at $3850 to $3900 [9][11]. Institutional Perspectives - Major financial institutions have differing forecasts for gold prices, with UBS raising its mid-2026 target from $4200 to $4500 per ounce, while JPMorgan anticipates an average price of $5055 by the end of 2026 [11]. - The global central bank's gold purchases have provided essential support for gold prices, with China increasing its reserves for 12 consecutive months and a total of 634 tons purchased globally in the first three quarters [5][11]. Investment Strategies - For long-term investors, the focus remains on the ongoing trend of de-dollarization and central bank purchases, suggesting a strategy of accumulating gold during price dips [13]. - Short-term traders should closely monitor Federal Reserve signals and geopolitical developments, establishing clear stop-loss and take-profit levels [13][15]. Market Sentiment - The recent outflow of $1 billion from the largest gold ETF indicates shifting investor sentiment, with some reallocating funds towards equities, particularly in the tech sector [13][20]. - The gold market's volatility reflects broader economic uncertainties, with gold maintaining its status as a traditional safe-haven asset amidst fluctuating market conditions [21].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年11月21日15时44分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡回调，沪金主力收跌1.40%，沪银主力收跌3.70%。①核心逻辑，短期避险方面，中美会谈利空兑现，地缘异动风 险仍存；美国就业走弱通胀温和，联储官员偏鹰，降息预期回调。②避险属性方面，中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。俄乌、中东等地 缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方面，美国9月就业增长超预期，但失业率升至4.4%。美联储官员警示金融稳定风险，12月是否降息 仍存分歧。美联储公布的10月政策会议纪要显示，美联储决策层在上月降息时存在严重分歧。许多官员认为，在2025年剩余时间 内维持利率不变"可能是合适之举"。更多美联储决策者暗示对12月降息持谨慎态度。美国政府结束停摆，市场等待更多经济数 据指引。目前市场预期美联储12月降息25基点概率跌至30%附近。美元指数和美债收益率下行遇阻偏强；④商品属性方面，CRB 商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币贬值利多内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏弱，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表 ...