投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 1 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 强势 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 升 | 宏观氛围冷却，短期避险需求上 | | 铜 | 2603 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏弱 | 长线看强 | 宏观氛围冷却，短期多头了结意 上升 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：强势 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：昨日金价维持强势上行态势，纽约金逼近 4 ...

最后，波兰央行宣布增持黄金，另外丹麦养老基金决定抛售美债，都在一定程度上利好黄金。后续重点关注美联储主席人选，美欧关税对峙，南美及格陵 兰岛的地缘影响等。 多家机构依旧看涨金价未来一段时间走势。 花旗近日表示，预计黄金目标价5000美元，白银目标 价100美元。鉴于地缘政治风险加剧、实物短缺以及美联储独立性再次出现不确定性，花旗集团上调 了其对贵金属的短期展望。 1月21日亚市早盘，金价再创新高。 截至发稿，现货黄金报4818美元/盎司，再创历史新高；纽约期金报4820美元/盎司。两者涨幅均超1%。 | 蓝好彩 | 板块跟踪 | 品种热图 | 报价列表 | 主力排名 | 全球商品 | 中国商品 | 贵会属 有色金属 | 消费器 原油 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 贵金属 | | | | | 名称 | | | | 现价 | | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | 伦敦金现 | | | | 4815.690 | | 52.720 | 1.11% | 11.52% | | 伦敦银现 | | | | 94 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 汪雅航 市场分析 关注财政政策。宏观方面，财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策出炉。其中，首次设立5000亿元民间投资专 项担保计划，引导银行新增投放5000亿元中小微企业民间投资贷款。首次实施中小微企业贷款贴息政 策，覆盖新能源汽车、工业母机等14个"重点产业链及上下游产业"、生产性服务业领域，以及农林牧渔 相关领域。优化实施服务业经营主体贷款贴息、个人消费贷贴息、设备更新贷款贴息等政策，个人信用 卡账单分期纳入贴息范围。海外方面，特朗普在记者会上表示，如果现行关税工具受限，他"可以使用 其他方式"，例如通过"许可制度"等替代手段。他强调，目前正在使用的方式是"最好、最强、最快、最 简单、最不复杂的"，但并非唯一选择。 指数震荡调整。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡调整，上证指数0.01%收于4113.65点，创业板指跌 1.79%。行业方面，板块指数涨跌互现，石油石化、建筑材料、房地产、交通运输行业领涨，通信、国 防军工、计算机行业跌幅居前。当日沪深两市成交额为2.8万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收 跌，纳指跌2.39%报22 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 21 日 0 / 47 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 钢材：需求存在支撑，钢价延续震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：基本面乏善可陈，市场情绪走弱 13 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价偏弱运行 14 | | 铁合金：跟随调整后，底部支撑较强 15 | | 股指期货：贴水继续收敛显示后市乐观 3 | | --- | | 蛋白粕：产量维持高位 盘面整体承压 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价格下跌，郑糖价格走弱 5 | | 油脂板块：整体维持震荡 7 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货偏弱，盘面高位回落 7 | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 现货整体下行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求有所改善，蛋价稳定为主 9 | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 10 | | 棉花-棉纱：下游补货意愿一般 棉价震荡为主 11 | | 金银：美欧争端升级 金银再创新高 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：美元指数下行 贵金属板块走强 17 | | 铜：多头动能减弱，铜价高位盘整 18 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings Macroeconomic and Financial - Index: Long - term optimistic, buy on dips [1][5] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound [1][5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: Short - term trading [1][7] - Rebar: Range trading [1][7] - Glass: Sell on rallies [1][8] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Exit long positions on rallies and wait and see [1][10] - Aluminum: Strengthen observation [1][13] - Nickel: Wait and see [1][14] - Tin: Range trading or take profit on previous long positions [1][15] - Gold: Range trading [1][18] - Silver: Bullish [1][16] - Lithium carbonate: Range - bound [1][18] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Range trading [1][20] - Caustic soda: Temporarily wait and see [1][21] - Soda ash: Temporarily wait and see [1][28] - Styrene: Range trading [1][22] - Rubber: Range trading [1][22] - Urea: Range trading [1][25] - Methanol: Range trading [1][25] - Polyolefins: Weakly range - bound [1][26] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Range adjustment [1][28] - Apples: Weakly range - bound [1][29] - Jujubes: Weakly range - bound [1][30] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: Short - term rebound, roll short opportunities [1][32] - Eggs: Not advisable to short in the short term [1][35] - Corn: Be cautious about chasing highs, wait for rebounds to hedge [1][37] - Soybean meal: Bearish on rallies [1][39] - Oils: Weakly range - bound [1][40] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trading strategies for various futures products in different industries, considering factors such as supply - demand relations, cost changes, geopolitical situations, and policy impacts [1][5][7] Summary by Directory Macroeconomic and Financial - Index: Although the external environment is deteriorating and may put pressure on the index, it is still optimistic in the long - term, and investors can buy on dips [5] - Treasury bonds: Yields of various maturities declined yesterday, with the long - end declining more. The market shows a situation where trading positions are passing on to allocation positions, and treasury bonds are expected to move in a range [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: The coal market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment due to weak fundamentals. Although supply may be tightened, demand is weak, and prices are under pressure. Short - term trading is recommended [7] - Rebar: Futures prices are weakly running. The valuation is neutral, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Range trading is the main strategy [7] - Glass: Speculative sentiment has cooled. Although the inventory pressure of float glass factories has eased, the inventory in the middle reaches has increased. Demand may decline before the Spring Festival, and prices are expected to be weakly range - bound. Sell on rallies [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Prices have risen first and then fallen, and are in a high - level range. Although the long - term supply - demand shortage is expected, short - term support has decreased. Investors can exit long positions on rallies [10][11][12] - Aluminum: The prices of bauxite are under pressure to decline. The supply of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is relatively stable, but demand is entering the off - season. The market may continue to adjust at a high level, and investors are advised to strengthen observation [13] - Nickel: Although the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas has boosted prices, the current market has fully priced in. The fundamentals are weak, and investors are advised to wait and see [14] - Tin: Supply is tight, and downstream consumption maintains rigid demand. Prices are expected to be range - bound. Range trading or taking profit on previous long positions is recommended [15][16] - Gold and silver: Geopolitical tensions have increased, and the US economic data is weak. The mid - term price centers of gold and silver have moved up. Gold is suitable for range trading, and silver is recommended to hold long positions [16][17][18] - Lithium carbonate: Supply and demand are both in a state of change. The price is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the disturbances at the Yichun mine end [18] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The bottom may have emerged. Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, the valuation is low, and there may be structural opportunities in the long - term. Range trading is recommended [20] - Caustic soda: Demand is difficult to support, and supply pressure is large. There is short - term delivery pressure, and investors are advised to wait and see [21] - Soda ash: Supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong. The downward space of the market may be limited, and investors are advised to temporarily leave the market and wait and see [28] - Styrene: The previous rebound was fast, but the current valuation is high. Range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to the improvement of cost and supply - demand patterns [22] - Rubber: The bottom support of natural rubber is weakening, and the seasonal inventory accumulation trend remains unchanged. The market may be weakly range - bound in the short - term [22] - Urea: Supply is increasing, demand is relatively stable, and prices are expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to factors such as compound fertilizer start - up and export policies [25] - Methanol: The supply in the inland area has recovered, and the demand for methanol - to - olefins remains high, but the traditional terminal demand is weak. The price in some areas is strong, and range trading is recommended [25] - Polyolefins: The cost support is strengthened, but the upward space of prices is limited. PE and PP are expected to be weakly range - bound, and short on rallies is the main strategy [26] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Global cotton supply has decreased, and demand has increased. Although there is a high - level correction in the short - term, the long - term expectation is optimistic [28] - Apples: The Spring Festival stocking is in progress, but the transaction of fruit farmers' goods is not fast. Prices are expected to be weakly range - bound [29][30] - Jujubes: The acquisition in Xinjiang has ended, and the market transactions in Hebei and Guangdong are okay. Prices are expected to be weakly range - bound [30] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: The short - term price is under pressure due to supply and demand factors. In the long - term, the price may be affected by capacity reduction. Short on rallies is recommended for off - season contracts, and be cautious about bullishness for far - month contracts [32][34] - Eggs: The short - term spot price is expected to be strong, not advisable to short. In the medium - term, the pressure of new production is not large. In the long - term, the capacity clearance still takes time, and attention should be paid to external factors [35][37] - Corn: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Be cautious about chasing highs and wait for rebounds to hedge [37][38][39] - Soybean meal: The short - term price is supported by cost, and the far - month price is under pressure. Bearish on rallies is the main strategy [39] - Oils: The short - term trends of different oils are differentiated. Rapeseed oil is weakly range - bound, and the rebounds of soybean oil and palm oil are limited. Attention can be paid to the narrowing strategy of the spreads between rapeseed oil and palm oil and between rapeseed oil and soybean oil [40][45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It points out the supply - demand situations, price trends, and investment strategies for each sector. For instance, in the financial derivatives sector, A - share markets are expected to be volatile, and investors are advised to control risks; in the commodity futures sector, different commodities face different supply - demand pressures and price trends, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed accordingly [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Alumina**: The market is in a surplus situation with supply increasing and demand weakening. The price lacks upward momentum and is expected to fluctuate between 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Seasonal inventory accumulation is expected, and the price in January is under pressure. Strategies such as EG5 - 9 anti - arbitrage are recommended [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is strong before the Spring Festival, but the futures price has over - anticipated the increase. After the festival, the market is expected to be loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150 [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Driven by export growth, it attempts to break through resistance levels. Domestically, it may try to break through 8750 yuan and may briefly reach 9000 yuan [5]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts boost safe - haven demand, and the price is expected to be strong in the long - term. Hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average [6]. 3.2 Financial Futures 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: A - share major indices declined, and the four major stock index futures contracts also fell. The market is divided, and small and medium - sized indices corrected [7][8]. - **News**: The government will implement more active fiscal and monetary policies to promote economic growth and price recovery [8]. - **Funding**: Trading volume increased slightly, and the central bank had a net capital withdrawal. - **Operation Suggestion**: Control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [9]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures rose, and bond yields generally declined [10][11]. - **Funding**: The central bank had a net capital withdrawal, and the inter - bank market liquidity was generally stable [11]. - **Policy**: The fiscal policy in 2026 will be more active to support economic stability [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market may fluctuate in the short - term. Adopt range - bound operations and pay attention to basis - widening strategies [12]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Geopolitical and trade conflicts led to the selling of US and Japanese bonds, a decline in the US dollar and US stocks, and the precious metals market remained strong [13][14][15]. - **Outlook**: Gold is expected to be strong in the long - term due to geopolitical and trade risks. Silver is expected to have a rising price center, and platinum and palladium will follow gold with narrowed fluctuations [15][16]. 3.4 Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index**: The SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index declined [17]. - **Fundamentals**: Container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [17]. - **Logic**: The futures price is under pressure from the downward trend of spot prices [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Expect short - term fluctuations [17]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - **Spot**: The spot discount widened, and the inventory continued to accumulate [18][21]. - **Macro**: The US is promoting negotiations on key minerals, which affects the tariff expectations for copper [19][22]. - **Supply**: The copper concentrate TC decreased, and the electrolytic copper production showed different trends in December and is expected to decline slightly in January [19]. - **Demand**: The downstream copper processing industry's operating rate was low, and the terminal demand was weak [20]. - **Logic**: The copper price may return to fundamental pricing, and attention should be paid to the CL premium and LME inventory changes [22]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe, and enter long positions after adjustment. Pay attention to the support at 97500 - 98500 [23]. 3.5.2 Alumina - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the inventory increased weekly by 7.9 tons [23][24]. - **Supply**: The production may decrease slightly in January due to some enterprises' losses [24]. - **Logic**: The market is in surplus, and the price lacks upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate between 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [25]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short at high prices within the range of 2600 - 2900 [25]. 3.5.3 Aluminum - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the transaction was cold [25]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to increase slightly, and the aluminum - water ratio may continue to decline [26]. - **Demand**: The downstream processing industry's operating rate was low, and the demand was weak [26]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely between 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton in the short - term [28]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Do not chase high prices. Enter long positions after a pullback within the range of 23000 - 25000 [29]. 3.5.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the market maintained rigid demand [29]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline slightly in January due to raw material shortages [29][30]. - **Demand**: The demand is in a mild recovery, but the terminal demand transmission is not smooth [30]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton in the short - term [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Long AD03 and short AL03 for arbitrage within the range of 22000 - 24000 [31]. 3.5.5 Zinc - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the transaction was general [32]. - **Supply**: The zinc ore supply is tight, and the refined zinc production decreased in December [33]. - **Demand**: The downstream processing industry's operating rate declined, and the demand was weak [34]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes [35][36]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to the support at 23800, and hold long positions in the long - term. Hold cross - market anti - arbitrage [36]. 3.5.6 Tin - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the transaction was general [36]. - **Supply**: The tin ore and tin ingot import and export showed different trends in December [37]. - **Demand**: The downstream tin - soldering industry's operating rate declined, and the terminal demand was divided [38]. - **Logic**: The price is affected by market sentiment and is expected to be volatile. Consider low - buying after the sentiment stabilizes [39]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe [39]. 3.5.7 Nickel - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the transaction was weak [39]. - **Supply**: The refined nickel production increased, and the market supply was sufficient [40]. - **Demand**: The demand in different sectors showed different trends, and the stainless - steel demand was general [40]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely between 138000 - 148000 [42]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct range - bound operations [42]. 3.5.8 Stainless Steel - **Spot**: The spot price was stable, and the basis declined [43]. - **Raw Materials**: The prices of nickel ore and ferronickel increased, and the price of ferrochrome was firm [43]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to increase in January, and the supply is relatively loose [44]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 13800 - 14600, and attention should be paid to the ore news and downstream inventory [45]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Operate within the range of 13800 - 14600 [46]. 3.5.9 Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the market sentiment was boosted [46][47]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January due to pre - holiday maintenance [47]. - **Demand**: The demand is expected to be optimistic, but the 1 - month demand may decline [48]. - **Logic**: The futures price increased sharply due to supply - side speculation. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [49]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe in the short - term, and enter long positions at low prices in the medium - term [50]. 3.5.10 Polysilicon - **Spot Price**: The spot price increased slightly [50]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January and the first quarter of 2026 [50]. - **Demand**: The demand may be improved by export demand, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased [51]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be supported at 48000 yuan/ton. Wait and observe and consider hedging [52]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe at high - level fluctuations [52]. 3.5.11 Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price**: The spot price was stable [53]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January and February [53]. - **Demand**: The demand is expected to decline in January, and attention should be paid to the polysilicon production [53]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the demand changes [55]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe at low - level fluctuations and pay attention to the production cut [55]. 3.6 Ferrous Metals 3.6.1 Steel - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the basis of rebar strengthened [56]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost decreased, and the profit increased. The profit order is billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar [56]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline seasonally [56][57]. - **Demand**: The demand declined seasonally, and the post - holiday demand elasticity is limited [57]. - **Logic**: The steel price may decline due to cost reduction. The rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate within certain ranges [57]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Exit long positions on the steel - ore ratio at high prices and hold long positions on the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread [57]. 3.6.2 Iron Ore - **Spot**: The spot price declined [58]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment decreased, and the port inventory increased [58][59]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand was weak, and the iron - making production declined [58]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the pre - holiday restocking [59]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct range - bound operations within the range of 770 - 830 [60]. 3.6.3 Coking Coal - **Spot**: The Shanxi coal price increased more than it decreased, and the Mongolian coal price declined [61][63]. - **Supply**: The coal mine production increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased slightly [63]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand for replenishment increased, and the coking plant's profit declined [63]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak after the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150 [63]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - term weakness and operate within the range of 1000 - 1150 [63]. 3.6.4 Coke - **Spot**: The mainstream coke enterprises started to raise prices, and the port price declined [64][65]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the coking plant's profit was under pressure [64][65]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand increased, and the iron - making production increased [65]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak after the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1600 - 1750 [65]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - term weakness and operate within the range of 1600 - 1750 [65]. 3.6.5 Ferrosilicon - **Spot**: The spot price was stable [66]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost was stable, and the profit was negative [66]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the output was at a low level [66][67]. - **Demand**: The demand from the steel industry and non - steel industries declined [67]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5300 - 5800, and attention should be paid to macro and policy factors [67]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe and pay attention to the price range of 5300 - 5800 [67]. 3.6.6 Manganese Silicon - **Spot**: The spot price declined slightly [69]. - **Cost**: The cost was relatively high, and the profit was negative [69]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the output was at a low level [70][71]. - **Demand**: The demand from the steel industry declined, and the inventory was high [71]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5600 - 6000, and attention should be paid to macro and policy factors [71]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe and pay attention to the price range of 5600 - 6000 [71]. 3.7 Agricultural Products 3.7.1 Meal - **Spot Market**: The soybean meal price was stable, and the rapeseed meal price increased [72]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazilian soybean production and export are affected by weather and other factors [73]. - **Outlook**: The domestic soybean and soybean meal supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to fluctuate around 2700 [74]. 3.7.2 Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price declined slightly [75]. - **Market Data**: The breeding profit improved, and the slaughter weight increased [75]. - **Outlook**: The market is in a game between supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [76]. 3.7.3 Corn - **Spot Price**: The price was stable in most areas [77]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain inventory in Guangzhou Port increased [78]. - **Outlook**: The price is supported by supply shortage and pre - holiday demand but limited by policy supply. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [79]. 3.7.4 Sugar - **Analysis**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is in the pre - holiday stocking period. The price is expected to be weak [80]. - **Fundamentals**: The Indian sugar production increased, and the Brazilian sugar production decreased [80]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe in the short - term [80]. 3.7.5 Cotton - **Analysis**: The ICE cotton price is under pressure, and the domestic cotton supply is sufficient. The price is expected to be adjusted [82]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton inspection progress is behind, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory is increasing [82]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to continue to be adjusted [82]. 3.7.6 Eggs - **Spot Market**: The price was stable in most areas, and the supply and demand were balanced [84]. - **Supply**: The inventory of laying hens is stable, and the inventory pressure is relieved [84]. - **Demand**: The trader's purchasing is cautious, and the inventory has increased [84]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [84]. 3.7.7 Oils - **Analysis**: The palm oil price is boosted by exports, and the soybean oil and rapeseed oil prices are affected by multiple factors. The prices are expected to fluctuate [85][87][88]. - **Fundamentals**: The Malaysian palm oil export and reference price change, and the US soybean oil supply is sufficient [86][88]. - **Outlook**: The palm oil may break through resistance levels, and the

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity futures market closed with a mixed performance, showing a structural differentiation. The lithium carbonate futures limit - up became the market focus, and the precious metals sector was strong, while the coking coal and coke futures led the decline, and most energy - chemical products fell. The overall market fluctuations revolved around the reconstruction of the supply - demand of sub - industries and macro - risk sentiment [14]. - The US economy maintained a "light to moderate" expansion, inflation continued to cool, consumption showed a "K - shaped" characteristic, industrial production rebounded unexpectedly, and the Fed maintained a cautious wait - and - see attitude, with the interest - rate cut expectation postponed to June [14]. - In China, policies focused on new fields, exports showed unexpected resilience, corporate loans and bond financing in social financing data were stronger than seasonal, but real estate and infrastructure were weak due to seasonality, and there were clear signs of inflation improvement [14]. - In the short term, there is a risk of continued adjustment of risk assets; in the medium term, long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), gold, and silver are recommended [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 20, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4708.6, with a daily decline of 0.5%, a weekly decline of 0.31%, and a monthly increase of 2.37%. The Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also had different price changes and fluctuations [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all showed certain price increases and fluctuations on January 20, 2026 [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 99.0423, with a daily decline of 0.33%, and the US dollar mid - price decreased by 63 pips [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate increased by 3.42 bp, and the 10 - year Chinese government bond yield decreased by 0.31 bp [2]. 3.2 Popular Industry Fluctuations - On January 20, 2026, different industries had different price changes and fluctuations. For example, the non - ferrous metals industry had a monthly increase of 12.65%, while the defense and military industry had a daily decline of 3.21% [5]. 3.3 Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - On January 16, 2026, overseas commodities such as energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products had different price changes and fluctuations. For example, NYMEX natural gas had a monthly decline of 16.22%, and COMEX silver had a monthly increase of 26.72% [8]. 3.4 Domestic Commodity Fluctuations - Various domestic commodities such as crude oil, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, energy - chemical products, and agricultural products had different price changes and fluctuations on January 20, 2026. For example, lithium carbonate had a daily increase of 8.93% and a monthly increase of 31.86% [11]. 3.5 Macro - Essentials - **Today's Market**: The domestic commodity futures market closed with a mixed performance. The rise of lithium carbonate was driven by the rise of energy - storage demand and the reversal of the supply - demand pattern, and precious metals were supported by geopolitical risks [14]. - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy expanded moderately, inflation cooled, consumption was "K - shaped", industrial production rebounded, and the Fed postponed the interest - rate cut expectation to June [14]. - **Domestic Macro**: Chinese policies focused on new fields, exports were resilient, social financing data showed strong corporate financing, but real estate and infrastructure were weak, and there were clear signs of inflation improvement [14]. - **Asset Views**: The Fed is not expected to cut interest rates in January, and the first interest - rate cut is postponed to June. Short - term risk assets may continue to adjust, while mid - term long positions in some assets are recommended [14]. 3.6 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, waiting for incremental funds; stock index options and treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile [15]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as the US fundamentals, Fed policies, and geopolitical conflicts [15]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping to Europe is expected to be volatile, focusing on factors such as shipping company's resumption of flights and cargo volume [15]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as production, inventory, and cost [15]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most basic metals are expected to be volatile, and some are expected to rise in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies [15]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, and some are expected to decline in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and policies [18]. - **Agriculture**: Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, and some are expected to rise or decline in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policies [18].

Core Viewpoint - The global investment environment is characterized by high uncertainty due to geopolitical factors, but there are still constructive underlying trends as governments and businesses focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement [4]. Group 1: Global Investment Environment - The current geopolitical uncertainty is a frequent topic of discussion, but there are still opportunities for value in various regions [4]. - The Asian markets and the Gulf region are highlighted as areas with significant growth potential, with Hong Kong's capital market showing signs of recovery and active listing activities [5]. - The U.S. market, particularly in the mid-service sector, is viewed positively due to its resilience against tariffs and trade tensions [5]. Group 2: Chinese Enterprises in Global Markets - Chinese enterprises have improved their communication skills and understanding of different markets, making them more competitive internationally [5][6]. - The key capability for Chinese companies to succeed globally is effective communication, which includes understanding market cultures and investor expectations [6]. - Good corporate governance is deemed crucial for building long-term relationships with international investors, emphasizing the importance of clear organizational structures and decision-making processes [6]. Group 3: Impact of AI on Investment - AI is transforming capital allocation and value creation, with direct investments in technologies that are changing the private equity industry and the economy [7]. - AI is also being integrated into business processes to enhance fundraising, wealth management, and liquidity arrangements, thereby improving operational efficiency [7]. - While AI is currently enhancing productivity and decision-making speed, its long-term impact on profit margins and returns will become clearer as the infrastructure matures [8]. Group 4: Risks and Recommendations - One major risk identified is the potential for rising interest rates, which could pose challenges for investment and financing [11]. - For Chinese entrepreneurs looking to enter international markets while facing geopolitical risks, a strategy of reducing internal competition and forming stronger, more efficient entities is recommended [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strong performance of precious metals amidst geopolitical uncertainties and macroeconomic factors, suggesting a continued upward trend for these assets [1][3]. Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold continues to rebound, driven by increased market demand for safe-haven assets due to rising geopolitical uncertainties [3]. - Silver and platinum are supported not only by macroeconomic factors but also by supply-demand gaps, with silver experiencing tight supply and robust industrial demand [3]. - The long-term upward trend for gold is expected to persist, bolstered by factors such as weakened dollar credibility, central bank purchases, and heightened geopolitical risks [3]. Group 2: Oil Market - The oil market is experiencing a shift in sentiment, with geopolitical risk premiums decreasing as President Trump adopts a more cautious stance regarding Iran [2][14]. - OPEC's report indicates that global demand for oil from member countries is expected to remain stable, with daily demand projected to increase to 43 million barrels by 2026 [2][14]. Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices have decreased by 1.28%, with tight concentrate supply and fluctuating smelting profits impacting the market [20]. - The overall growth in smelting output continues, but the supply disruptions are shifting global copper supply-demand expectations towards a deficit [20]. Group 4: Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation pressures are easing, with December's core CPI rebound lower than expected, indicating a potential continuation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [3][12]. - The macroeconomic environment is expected to support the long-term performance of precious metals, as liquidity remains loose [3]. Group 5: Domestic Policy - The National Development and Reform Commission of China plans to focus on strengthening domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand in 2026, which may influence various sectors [7]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to enhance water resource management and promote water-saving industries, targeting a significant increase in agricultural irrigation efficiency by 2030 [8].

Group 1: Global Investment Environment - Geopolitical risks are a high-frequency topic of discussion at the Davos Forum, with global capital reassessing its allocation direction amid slowing growth and rising uncertainties [1] - Despite high uncertainty, a constructive underlying trend is observed, with governments and market participants focusing on cost reduction and improving investment environments [3] - Value remains present globally but is more dispersed and reliant on execution and fundamentals [3] Group 2: Attractive Growth Opportunities - Asia and the Gulf region are highlighted as areas with significant growth opportunities, with Hong Kong's capital market showing signs of recovery and active listing activities [4] - The U.S. is viewed positively, particularly in the mid-service sector, which is less affected by tariffs and trade tensions [4] - The Gulf region stands out due to clear policy directions, ongoing reforms, and a defined economic transformation agenda [4] Group 3: Chinese Enterprises in Global Markets - Chinese enterprises have improved their communication skills and understanding of different markets, enhancing their international competitiveness [5] - Key capabilities for success in global markets include governance, with a focus on clear organizational structures and transparent decision-making processes [5] - The overall trend shows improvement in communication and operational capabilities among Chinese firms [5] Group 4: Impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) - AI is transforming capital allocation and value creation, with direct investments in technologies that change private equity and the real economy [6] - AI is also being integrated into business processes to enhance efficiency in fundraising, wealth management, and liquidity arrangements [6] - While AI is improving production efficiency and decision-making speed, its long-term impact on profitability and returns will become clearer as the infrastructure matures [7] Group 5: Concerns and Recommendations - There are concerns about potential bubbles in AI investments due to rapid capital influx and uncertain returns [8] - For Chinese entrepreneurs looking to enter international markets, reducing internal competition and forming stronger entities may be beneficial strategies [9] - A key risk to watch is the potential rise in interest rates, which could pose challenges for investment and financing [10]