美联储按兵不动，黄金高位回落 | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | | | 黄金：震荡 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 6 月 | 22 | 日 | [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金跌 1.9%至 3368 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.38%，通胀 预期 2.34%，实际利率降至 2.03%，美元指数涨 0.53%至 98.7，标普 500 指数跌 0.15%，离岸人民币小幅升值，内外价差窄幅波动。 贵 金 金价高位回落，表现弱于原油和白银，中东地区地缘政治风险继 续扰动市场，但资金选择做多价格更低的品种，对黄金的配置反 而有限，美国对伊朗的核设施进行打击后，预计伊朗的反击能力 有限，当前的地缘冲突程度难以带动黄金突破上涨，关注后续美 国的参与程度。 属 美联储 6 月利率会议按兵不动，点阵图显示支持年内不降息的人 数增加，2026 年的降息预期下降，经济预测则显示美国滞胀风险 增加，但由于就业市场存有韧性，关税对通胀的影响还未完全体 现，美联储选择继续观望，市场降息预期维持在 ...

下周，全球巨变悄然上演。 当地时间21日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"上发文称，美国已完成对伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹 和伊斯法罕三处核设施的袭击。目前特朗普暂无进一步对伊朗采取军事行动的计划。 而就在前几天，《华尔街日报》曾报道"特朗普批准打击伊朗计划，但暂缓执行"，不过，随后被特朗普 19日在社交平台发文驳斥"《华尔街日报》根本不知道我对伊朗的想法"。 然而仅仅几天后，特朗普就对伊朗进行了军事打击。这一军事行动与此前两周的谈判预期形成鲜明对 比，标志着该地区安全和政治格局进入一个不可预测、且更加危险复杂的阶段，世界局势也更加"混 乱"。 对此，伊朗外交部22日发表声明，以最强烈措辞谴责美国对伊朗用于和平目的的核设施进行"野蛮军事 侵略"，表示这一侵略行径"公然且史无前例地违反《联合国宪章》和国际法基本原则"。 声明说，"好战和无法无天的"美国政府应该对"这一重大罪行造成的极其危险后果负全部责任"，再次表 明美国统治集团"根深蒂固的堕落和道德败坏"，以及对伊朗的极端敌意和仇恨。伊朗保留"全力抵抗美 国军事侵略及其流氓政权犯下的罪行、捍卫伊朗安全和国家利益"的权利。 投资者也正密切关注伊朗可能的反击措施，特 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests taking profit on long positions on rallies in the first three trading days of the week due to the daily increase in the number of warehouse receipts and the less - than - expected destocking at ports. On Thursday, it recommends going long on pullbacks as the supply - demand outlook for pure benzene in July tightens and the probability of an escalation in the situation among the US, Israel, and Iran increases [2]. - According to the expected changes in oil prices and BZN, the valuation range of EB2508 is revised up to 7400 - 8150 yuan. It is recommended to hold long positions and go long on pullbacks [3]. Summary by Directory 01 Pure Benzene Logic - **Domestic and Asian Device Maintenance**: In China, many domestic pure benzene - related devices have maintenance plans or actual maintenance situations. The total domestic maintenance loss in June is 17.69 million tons, and in July it is 17.10 million tons. In Asia, many foreign devices also have maintenance plans, with a total maintenance loss of 23.27 million tons in June and 11.01 million tons in July [10][11]. - **Overseas Aromatic Hydrocarbon Supply - Demand Changes**: From May to June in the US, the total pure benzene imports were only 3 - 4 million tons, and the inventory of pure benzene traders and downstream raw materials in the US Gulf ports decreased significantly. In Europe, multiple phenol plants announced permanent closures this year [12]. - **Production and Profit**: The weekly production profit of petroleum benzene increased by 100 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.36% (+0.96). The weekly production profit of hydro - benzene decreased by about 97 yuan/ton, and the operating rate was 67.87% (+0.77). The import profit of domestic pure benzene decreased by 49.86 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the far - month import window closed [15][18]. - **Crude Oil and Related Inventory**: In the week of June 13, EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 11.473 million barrels, Cushing crude oil decreased by 995,000 barrels, and SPR replenished by 230,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate dropped to 93.2% [22]. - **Downstream Product Conditions**: In the phenol sector, some plants increased their loads; in the caprolactam sector, the profit improved significantly and there was still room for restocking; in the aniline and adipic acid sectors, some plants had start - up and shutdown situations, and the profit of adipic acid increased slightly [27][29]. - **Inventory and Consumption**: As of June 16, the pure benzene inventory in East China ports was 153,000 tons (+4000), and the提货 volume decreased significantly. The five major downstream industries' total consumption of pure benzene increased by about 27,300 tons. After revising up the caprolactam operating rate forecast, the pure benzene supply - demand in July turned back to a tight balance [31][35]. 02 Styrene Logic - **Device Maintenance**: Domestically, Baolai's 350,000 - ton device entered maintenance, and some other devices restarted or postponed maintenance. Overseas, some devices restarted or had restart failures, and some were shut down due to raw material problems. The total domestic maintenance loss in June was 106,600 tons, and in July it was 50,500 tons [41][42]. - **Production and Profit**: This week, the domestic styrene production was 361,900 tons (+23,800), and the capacity utilization rate was about 79.01% (+5.2). The average weekly integrated profit of styrene increased by about 91 yuan/ton, the profit of PO/SM plants increased by about 29 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the average weekly profit of non - integrated plants decreased by about 25 yuan/ton [43][47]. - **Inventory and Trade**: This week, the styrene inventory in sample enterprises' factories was about 188,800 tons (+4100), and the inventory in East China ports was 66,300 tons (-13,700). The import profit of styrene decreased by 34.79 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the far - month import window closed. The export of styrene in June is expected to be 21,000 tons, a decrease from the previous month [55][58]. - **Supply and Demand**: This week, the total consumption of styrene by the three S products decreased by about 2400 tons. In the short term, the supply of styrene increased while the demand decreased, but the accumulation of factory and port inventories was small [61]. 03 Downstream Products & Terminal Industry Logic - **EPS**: The average weekly external procurement profit was - 4 yuan/ton, the production was about 88,900 tons (-3000), the capacity utilization rate was about 53.63% (-1.84), and the inventory in sample enterprises' factories was about 27,700 tons (-2400). The mainstream price increased by 260 yuan/ton week - on - week (+3%) [67][82]. - **ABS**: The external procurement profit increased by about 18.33 yuan/ton week - on - week, the production was about 119,800 tons (-200), the capacity utilization rate was about 63.97% (-0.11), and the inventory in sample enterprises' factories was about 209,000 tons (-9000). The average price increased by 78.33 yuan/ton week - on - week (+0.72%) [73][82]. - **PS**: The average weekly external procurement profit decreased by 53 yuan/ton, remaining in a loss state. The production was about 89,900 tons (+600), the capacity utilization rate was about 58.7% (+0.4), and the inventory in sample enterprises' factories was about 102,000 tons (+6000). The average price of GPPS increased by 215 yuan/ton week - on - week (+2.69%) [77][82]. - **Terminal Industry**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year increase in automobile sales was 1.2314 million vehicles (+12.61%), and the cumulative year - on - year increase in exports was 319,400 vehicles (+15.2%). In May, the production of air conditioners decreased by 1.353 million units month - on - month but increased by 430,000 units year - on - year; the production of color TVs decreased by 310,000 units month - on - month and 1.193 million units year - on - year; the production of refrigerators increased by 331,000 units month - on - month but decreased by 422,000 units year - on - year [86]. 04 Pure Benzene, Styrene Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand balance sheet shows changes in pure benzene production, import, and downstream consumption demand from January to December 2025. After adjustment, the supply - demand in July turned to a tight balance [104]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand balance sheet shows changes in styrene production, net import, and downstream demand from January to December 2025, as well as inventory changes and forecasts [108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The repeated escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the breakdown of the Iran nuclear negotiations, and the resulting conflicts in the Middle East support the strengthening of oil prices. The supply side is affected by geopolitical factors, with Iran's 3 million barrels per day of crude oil supply potentially threatened, and the market is worried about the obstruction of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, involving 16 million barrels per day of crude oil supply. Although eight OPEC+ producing countries plan to increase production, the actual production in April decreased month - on - month, indicating uncertainty in the production increase process. On the demand side, the US enters the driving season, and crude oil demand is expected to increase seasonally. Although China's crude oil processing demand declined in May, demand is expected to be further boosted with the suspension of tariffs and the expectation of pre - export rush. The report suggests holding long positions [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week View and Strategy - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 11.5 million barrels last week, the largest decline since the week of June 28, 2024, and the inventory level was the lowest since January. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) increased by 200,000 barrels. Gasoline and distillate inventories increased. US crude oil net imports decreased by 1.75 million barrels per day, and exports increased by 1.1 million barrels per day to 4.4 million barrels per day [4][20]. - **Supply**: Affected by geopolitical factors, Iran's 3 million barrels per day of crude oil supply may be threatened, and the market is worried about the obstruction of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, involving 16 million barrels per day of crude oil supply. The US crude oil production remained at 13.4 million barrels per day last week. Eight OPEC+ countries plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, and the cumulative production increase from April to July is expected to be 1.371 million barrels per day. However, the actual production in April decreased month - on - month, indicating uncertainty in the production increase process. There are also uncertainties in supply due to the Israel - Iran conflict, sanctions on Russian and Venezuelan crude oil, and the US shale oil production reaching its ceiling [4]. - **Demand**: The US refinery capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 93.2%, and the crude oil processing volume decreased by 364,000 barrels per day. As the summer driving season arrives, gasoline demand will increase. In May, China's crude oil processing slowed down, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. Overall, the demand side is expected to increase steadily, with strong demand in the US and stable demand in China [4]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions [4] 3.2. Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides detailed data on global crude oil production, consumption, and inventory changes from January 2024 to December 2025, including production and consumption in OPEC and non - OPEC countries, as well as OECD and non - OECD countries [6]. - **Industrial Chain Structure**: The report shows the industrial chain structure of crude oil, including the processing of crude oil through the atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit, and then further processing into various products such as naphtha, ethylene, propylene, etc. [9] 3.3. Futures - Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the futures - spot market, including domestic and foreign price spreads, monthly spreads, and freight indices, etc., but no specific analysis of these data is provided [11][15][16] 3.4. Inventory - **US Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased slightly. The inventory level of Cushing decreased [4][20]. - **China Inventory**: In May, China's inventory increment decreased due to a decline in imported crude oil and a month - on - month decrease in crude oil processing demand. The INE crude oil warehouse receipts in the Shanghai Energy Exchange have recently remained at a low level, indicating a low level of deliverable warehouse receipts [25][28] 3.5. Supply Side - **OPEC Production**: OPEC's monthly report shows that the average daily crude oil production of OPEC+ in May was 41.23 million barrels, an increase of 180,000 barrels compared to April. Eight OPEC+ countries plan to increase production, but there is uncertainty in the production increase process [32][33]. - **US Production**: The US crude oil production remained at 13.4 million barrels per day last week. The US shale oil production has reached its ceiling, and the growth space is limited due to the reduction of capital expenditure by oil companies in the early stage. The US oil rig count, a leading indicator of future production, has remained at a stable level, indicating a low probability of future production increase [37][39]. 3.6. Demand Side - **China Demand**: In May, China's crude oil processing slowed down, but overall, the travel demand is strong, and it is expected to drive the recovery of crude oil consumption. China's crude oil imports in May were 46.6 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to May increased slightly year - on - year. The export of refined oil products in May was 4.409 million tons, a year - on - year decline [47][52][55]. - **US Demand**: The US refinery capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 93.2%, and the crude oil processing volume decreased. As the summer driving season arrives, gasoline demand is expected to increase, and the demand is slightly better than the same period last year [59][62].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Outperform" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel is causing oil prices to fluctuate strongly, with WTI crude futures closing up 0.22% and Brent crude futures up 2.89% during the specified period [6]. - The geopolitical situation is tense, with the U.S. potentially escalating its involvement, which could further disrupt oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for approximately 20% of global oil trade [6]. - In the fluorochemical sector, strong demand from the air conditioning industry is supporting high prices for fluorinated refrigerants, with R32 prices continuing to rise and R134a prices remaining stable [6]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - The report highlights the impact of the Iran-Israel conflict on oil prices, with potential U.S. intervention increasing risks of supply disruptions [6][7]. - The report notes that domestic oil companies are diversifying their energy sources and enhancing upstream and downstream integration to mitigate the impact of volatile oil prices [7]. Fluorochemicals - The report indicates that the production of second-generation refrigerants is being reduced, while the supply of third-generation refrigerants is limited, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance [6][7]. - The air conditioning sector is experiencing strong production growth driven by government subsidies, with expected year-on-year increases of 29.3% and 22.8% in June and July 2025, respectively [6]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor materials sector is showing signs of recovery, with inventory levels decreasing and end-market fundamentals improving, suggesting a potential upward trend in the industry index [7].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Price Segmentation System - **Model Construction Idea**: The model analyzes the price movement of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) to identify marginal trends and align daily and weekly price patterns[15] - **Model Construction Process**: The model segments the price data of the SSE index into daily and weekly trends. It observes the marginal upward movement in daily data and compares it with weekly data to confirm alignment[15] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a straightforward approach to track marginal price movements and assess consistency across timeframes[15] 2. Model Name: Micro-Market Structure Timing - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates the activity level of informed traders to gauge market sentiment and timing opportunities[16] - **Model Construction Process**: The model uses an "informed trader activity index," which tracks the marginal changes in informed trading activity. The index is observed near the zero line, indicating cautious market sentiment[16] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively reflects the cautious stance of informed traders during market volatility, providing insights into market timing[16] 3. Model Name: Institutional Positioning Estimation - **Model Construction Idea**: This model estimates institutional holdings in the TMT sector to assess the sector's positioning and potential rebound opportunities[14] - **Model Construction Process**: The model calculates the institutional holding ratio in the TMT sector. As of June 20, the institutional holding ratio was 24.7%, corresponding to the 54.2% percentile over the past three years. This indicates a relatively cleared position structure, suggesting potential for early recovery[14] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a quantitative basis for assessing sectoral positioning and rebound potential, particularly in high-risk sectors like TMT[14] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Price Segmentation System - **Weekly SSE Index Change**: -0.51% during the period from June 16 to June 20, 2025[15] 2. Micro-Market Structure Timing - **Informed Trader Activity Index**: The index remained near zero, reflecting cautious market sentiment[16] 3. Institutional Positioning Estimation - **Institutional Holding Ratio in TMT**: 24.7%, corresponding to the 54.2% percentile over the past three years[14] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: BARRA Style Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factors analyze the performance of fundamental and trading-related attributes to identify market preferences and style shifts[25] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Fundamental Factors**: Valuation factors, such as earnings-to-price (EP), are analyzed for their contribution to high-dividend asset returns - **Trading-Related Factors**: Momentum and volatility factors are assessed for their performance during market corrections - **Size Factors**: Both linear and non-linear size factors are evaluated to track shifts from small-cap to large-cap preferences[25] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factors effectively capture the dynamic shifts in market preferences, including the transition from small-cap to large-cap styles and the performance of high-dividend assets[25] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. BARRA Style Factors - **Valuation Factors**: High EP value assets demonstrated strong returns[25] - **Trading-Related Factors**: Momentum and high-volatility assets experienced drawdowns[25] - **Size Factors**: Positive excess returns for size factors, with reduced drawdowns in non-linear size factors, indicating a shift toward large-cap preferences[25]

Group 1: U.S. Military Action - The U.S. conducted a significant military operation against Iran on June 21, targeting three nuclear facilities, marking the most severe action since the 1979 Iranian Revolution [1][10] - President Trump announced the completion of the strikes, claiming that Iran's Fordow nuclear facility "no longer exists" and indicated that further targets could be struck if peace is not achieved [10][12] Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite the escalating conflict, global asset markets showed resilience, with major stock indices like Israel's TA35 and South Korea's KOSPI200 recording gains of over 3% from June 13 to June 20 [2][3] - Oil prices initially surged due to the conflict, with Brent crude rising by 11.48% and WTI by 8.82% during the same period, although they later stabilized [6][12] Group 3: Energy Market Implications - Analysts predict that the U.S. strikes may lead to increased oil prices and a potential panic in global markets, with concerns about the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz for energy transport [13][15] - The market consensus suggests that any military action by the U.S. will be short-lived, as President Trump aims to keep gasoline prices manageable [16][17] Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market experienced a rare decline during the conflict, with spot gold prices dropping below $3,370, despite initial spikes above $3,400 [6][22] - Analysts from Deutsche Bank and Citigroup anticipate that geopolitical risk premiums for gold may re-emerge, with predictions of gold prices peaking between $3,100 and $3,500 in Q3 2023 before declining [26]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Israel-Iran conflict is sliding towards a long - term confrontation due to the US direct military intervention, which will increase the complexity of regional conflicts in the Middle East and put pressure on global risk appetite. The volatility centers of crude oil and gold will rise [2][3]. - The achievement of the US trade negotiation's phased results may be postponed because of multiple constraints at home and abroad [4][5]. - Considering the uncertainties in trade negotiations and geopolitical factors, as well as the gradual slowdown of the US economy, the Fed is more likely to maintain patience in policy, with a high probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in the third quarter and a possible 1 - 2 times of interest rate cuts within the year [6][8]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Macroeconomic Observation 1.1 The Israel - Iran Conflict Sliding towards Long - term Confrontation, with the Volatility Centers of Crude Oil and Gold Rising - The US direct military intervention has escalated the Israel - Iran conflict, making the confrontation irreversible and long - term, and the geopolitical risk has spread to the entire Middle East [2]. - The US military intervention has intensified the contradiction of strategic resource dispersion, increasing military expenditure pressure and potentially affecting domestic and economic agendas [2]. - In the long run, neither Iran nor Israel has the absolute military ability to end the conflict quickly, and the conflict is sliding towards long - term confrontation. The Israel - Iran situation will put pressure on global risk appetite, and the volatility centers of crude oil and gold will be pushed up [3]. 1.2 Internal and External Constraints May Postpone the Achievement of the US Trade Negotiation's Phased Results - This week, the global trade negotiation situation was stalemated, and the US - Japan, US - Canada, and US - EU trade negotiations made no progress. There were obvious differences in positions between the two sides in the US - Japan trade dialogue, and the US - EU had fundamental differences in the "fair agreement" standard. Canada considered raising tariffs on US steel and aluminum products [4][5]. - In the long run, the global trade system is being reconstructed, and the US "reciprocal trade" principle conflicts with other countries' interests, resulting in long - term tariff negotiations. In the short term, the US trade negotiation team's efficiency is restricted by the Middle East situation and domestic political pressure, and the achievement of phased results may be postponed [5]. 1.3 Geopolitical Situation and Trade Negotiation Progress Add Uncertainties, and the Fed Maintains a Wait - and - See Strategy - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time in June. Powell warned that tariffs might push up inflation, and the impact of new tariffs on inflation would be clearer after the negotiation results were determined in July and August [6]. - The uncertainty of trade negotiation progress and geopolitical factors have affected the Fed's monetary policy schedule. The US economic fundamentals are moderately cooling, but consumer spending is supported by wage growth, and the Fed may maintain interest rates unchanged in the third quarter and cut interest rates 1 - 2 times within the year [6][8]. 2. Domestic Key Events and Important Economic Data - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum opened, and the central bank announced eight financial opening - up measures. The one - year and five - year LPR remained unchanged, and this week, the central bank achieved a net withdrawal of 799 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations [10]. - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries decreased, and the "national subsidy" for home appliances would last until the end of 2025 [10]. - The national authorities responded to the "national subsidy" plan. In May, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail increased, and from January to May, the national online retail sales increased by 8.5% [10]. - From January to May, the year - on - year growth rate of national fixed - asset investment decreased, and the real estate development investment decreased. In May, the housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow [10]. 3. Overseas Key Events and Important Economic Data - The Fed kept the target overnight interest rate unchanged, still expecting to cut interest rates twice this year. Powell warned that tariffs might push up inflation, and the US economic forecast showed mild stagflation [11]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased but remained high. In May, the new housing starts reached a new low since May 2020. In June, consumer confidence improved, but tariff anxiety remained. In May, retail sales decreased [11]. - The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged, planned to reduce the scale of bond purchases, and its governor said that inflation expectations were not anchored. The Japanese prime minister said that salary increase was more important than tax cuts, and the US - Japan tariff negotiation was not concluded [12]. - Trump emphasized the role of tariffs in the US - Canada agreement, while Canada opposed it. The two sides agreed to continue negotiations in the next 30 days. Trump criticized the EU and Japan in trade negotiations, and Canada might adjust counter - tariffs on US steel and aluminum products [12]. - Trump announced the successful air strike on three Iranian nuclear facilities, and the US currently has no further military strike plan but warned Iran [12]. 4. Next Week's Key Data/Events - Next week, important data such as the eurozone's and the US's June PMI initial values, the US's housing sales data, consumer confidence index, and core PCE price index will be released [13].

1.黄金建议反弹3375-3380区域做空，止损在3388，目标3360-3340. 文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析与强大的理论，我是翁富豪老师，最后祝大家交易愉 快。免责申明:以上纯属个人观点分享，不构成操作建议，投资有风险，盈亏自负。 从黄金4小时K线形态分析，当前多头动能阶段性占优，但上方3380-3385区域存在显著技术阻力。金价虽出现回调，但尚未有效击穿上升通道下沿，中长期 上行趋势结构保持完整。若中东地缘冲突加剧或国际贸易风险升级，可能触发技术性反弹修复行情。日线级别收出十字星形态，价格回踩布林带中轨支撑 位，整体维持震荡下行运行节奏。小时图级别呈现明显下跌特征，在未突破关键压力位前建议维持空头交易策略。短期阻力区间确认为3380-3385，下方支 撑区间位于3335-3330。下周操作翁富豪建议黄金价格反弹至3375-3380区域可考虑布局空单，需严格设置止损并控制仓位风险。 操作策略： 金价周五持稳于3368一线，但周线累计下跌1.8%。最新FOMC声明强化美联储谨慎立场，维持联邦基金利率4.25%-4.50%区间不变，但下调2025 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector [5] Core Viewpoints - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, are expected to drive oil prices upward, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices reported at $75.78 and $74.04 per barrel respectively, reflecting increases of 0.8% and 1.2% [1][10][11] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) have both revised down their oil demand forecasts for 2025, primarily due to weak demand from the U.S. and China [2][14] - The report emphasizes the strategic value of oil and gas, highlighting that the "Three Barrel Oil" companies are expected to maintain high capital expenditures and focus on increasing reserves and production [3][19] Summary by Sections Geopolitical Impact - The report discusses the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict and its implications for oil prices, predicting continued upward pressure on prices due to geopolitical risks [1][11] - The conflict has already led to significant disruptions, with oil transportation risks increasing, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for a substantial portion of global oil trade [3][25] Oil Demand and Supply Forecasts - IEA forecasts a global oil demand increase of 720,000 barrels per day in 2025, with a downward revision of 20,000 barrels per day from previous estimates [2][14] - EIA's forecast for 2025 indicates an increase of 790,000 barrels per day, also revised down by 180,000 barrels per day [2][14] - OPEC+ has underperformed in its production increase plans, with actual increases falling short of targets [2][16] Strategic Developments in the Oil Sector - The "Three Barrel Oil" companies are expected to focus on high capital expenditures and strategic developments to counter external uncertainties, with production plans showing growth rates of 1.6%, 1.3%, and 5.9% respectively [3][19][20] - The report suggests that the geopolitical situation enhances the valuation of oil transportation, with freight rates significantly increasing due to the conflict [3][25] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major players in the oil and gas sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and CNOOC, as well as related oil service companies and chemical industry leaders [4][19]