Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals sector, with the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals (399395) rising by 2.50% as of October 14, 2025, driven by significant gains in individual stocks such as Silver Holdings (601212) up 10.02% and China Rare Earth (000831) up 8.00% [1] - The increase in spot gold prices, reaching a record high of $4,148.93 per ounce, is attributed to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and tariff impacts, which have heightened risk aversion among investors [1] - Dongwu Securities indicates that the downward trend in real interest rates, combined with overseas fiscal and tariff pressures, is boosting safe-haven demand for precious metals, with expectations of further interest rate cuts in October [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals (399395) include Zijin Mining (601899) and Northern Rare Earth (600111), collectively accounting for 53.12% of the index [2] - The Non-Ferrous ETF Fund (159880) closely tracks the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metals sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1][2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2512 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias". The core logic is that the long - term and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Overall, in the short term, the upward momentum and downward space of Treasury bond futures are both limited, and they will mainly conduct bottom oscillation consolidation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the long - term and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, Treasury bond futures opened higher and closed slightly up. On the news front, Trump's sudden tariff threat last Friday led to a rapid decline in the risk preference of the capital market and an increase in risk - aversion sentiment, which is beneficial to Treasury bond futures. From a macro - fundamental perspective, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and there is a need for a relatively loose monetary environment in the future. Policy easing expectations still exist, which strongly supports Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, domestic economic data shows strong resilience, and the necessity of a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut is insufficient. The implied interest rate cut expectation between the current market interest rate and the policy rate is weak, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is also insufficient [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the short-term risks for the US stock market are increasing due to multiple factors including escalating US-China trade conflicts, government shutdowns, and low economic visibility, leading to potential downward pressure on stock prices [1][3] - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced weekly declines of 2.43%, 2.53%, and 2.73% respectively, reflecting the market's reaction to these risks [3] - The upcoming earnings season is expected to heighten the focus on earnings certainty, with a warning about the risks of high valuation corrections [1][3] Group 2 - The Indian stock market is experiencing upward momentum driven by tax reforms and foreign capital inflows, particularly with the introduction of GST 2.0, which lowers consumption and automotive-related tax rates [7][8] - The Indian market benefits from a robust growth outlook, supported by structural reforms and a favorable demographic dividend, positioning it for long-term growth [8] - The Japanese stock market is showing significant strength due to political changes and expectations of continued monetary easing, with the new Prime Minister's policies reinforcing market optimism [11][12] Group 3 - The Hong Kong market is facing volatility due to the escalation of US-China trade tensions, with a focus on the progress of negotiations and earnings certainty as key factors influencing market sentiment [20][21] - The gold market is experiencing new highs driven by the interplay of government shutdowns and trade conflicts, with gold prices rising significantly as a safe-haven asset [32][33] - The oil market is under pressure from geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts, leading to a notable decline in oil prices, with Brent crude and WTI experiencing drops of 3.78% and 4.34% respectively [36][38]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Powell suggests support for two more interest rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points [12] - OPEC maintains its global oil demand growth forecast, expecting a significant narrowing of supply gaps next year [12] - The People's Bank of China signs a memorandum with the Monetary Authority of Macao for cross-border payment connectivity [12] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market sees all three major indices rise, with the Dow Jones up 1.29%, S&P 500 up 1.56%, and Nasdaq up 2.2% [4] - Major European indices also rise, with France's CAC40 up 0.21%, Germany's DAX30 up 0.6%, and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.16% [4] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index falls by 1.52%, with technology and education sectors experiencing significant declines [5] Group 3 - A surge in gold prices, with spot gold rising by 2.3% to $4110.7 per ounce, and silver prices increasing by 4.12% to $52.37 per ounce [7] - WTI crude oil rises by 2.16% to $59.23 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increases by 1.9% to $63.18 per barrel [7] - The A-share market sees a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.19% and the ChiNext Index down 1.11%, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index rises by 1.4% [6]

Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: October 13, 2025 - Report Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market closed up 0.46% last week, with precious metals leading the gain at 2.47%, non - ferrous and black metals rising 1.93% and 1.41% respectively, while agricultural products and energy - chemical products fell 0.47% and 1.63% respectively. Due to the re - intensification of the Sino - US trade situation, the commodity market may be under pressure in the short term [2]. - The US government shutdown, economic data uncertainty, inflation resilience, dovish statements from Fed officials, and central bank gold purchases support precious metals, which may fluctuate strongly in the short term. Non - ferrous metals may be under pressure due to trade tensions despite supply disturbances. Black metals are likely to face pressure with weak demand and increasing external trade frictions. Energy prices may oscillate weakly due to inventory increases and geopolitical factors. Chemical products may be affected by trade frictions and oil price drops. Agricultural products may face supply shortages if the trade war persists [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market**: The commodity market rose 0.46% last week. Precious metals led the gain at 2.47%, non - ferrous and black metals rose 1.93% and 1.41% respectively, while agricultural products and energy - chemical products fell 0.47% and 1.63% respectively. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market increased significantly, and all sectors had net capital outflows [2]. - **Top Gainers and Losers**: Tin, copper, and coking coal led the gains with increases of 4.1%, 3.37%, and 3.11% respectively. Pigs, eggs, and crude oil had larger declines of 8.38%, 7.64%, and 3.71% respectively [2]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: The losses from the US government shutdown, economic data uncertainty, inflation resilience, dovish Fed statements, and central bank gold purchases support precious metals. With the rising risk of the Sino - US trade war, the sector may oscillate strongly in the short term [3]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Supply disturbances made the sector perform strongly during the holiday, but the re - intensification of the Sino - US trade situation led to large declines in previously strong varieties. Supply remains tight, but terminal consumption has slowed, and inventories are accumulating. The sector may be under pressure in the short term [3]. - **Black Metals**: During the long holiday, the apparent demand for rebar dropped significantly, production decreased slightly, and inventories increased sharply. With high - level molten iron, weakening steel mill profitability, and increasing external trade frictions, the sector may face pressure in the short term [3]. - **Energy**: International oil prices declined around the National Day holiday. The EIA report showed an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, and geopolitical factors may have a negative impact on oil prices. Oil prices may oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [4]. - **Chemical Products**: For building materials, trade friction may be unfavorable for PVC exports, and PVC may oscillate weakly. Polyester products may be affected by trade friction and oil price drops, facing cost collapse and weak demand [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Possible US tariff increases may affect domestic soybean supplies in the first and second quarters of next year. If the trade war lasts, the overall supply may tighten in the first quarter of next year. Oils and fats may be under pressure due to the decline in crude oil prices and the uncertainty caused by the US government shutdown [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Precious Metal ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had a weekly return of around 2.94% - 2.99%. The total net asset value of gold ETFs was 1,773.72 billion yuan, with a 1.66% increase. The total net asset value of all commodity ETFs was 1,853.72 billion yuan, with a 1.83% increase [38]. - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical futures ETF had a - 1.28% return, the feed soybean meal futures ETF had a - 0.29% return, the non - ferrous metal futures ETF had a 3.26% return, and the silver futures (LOF) had a 2.61% return [38].

Core Insights - Gold and silver prices have reached historical highs, with spot gold touching $4080 per ounce and COMEX gold futures surpassing $4100 per ounce, marking increases of approximately 55% and 56% year-to-date respectively [1] - Silver prices have surged over 70% this year, outperforming gold [1] Market Performance - On October 13, the A-share precious metals sector rose nearly 7%, with notable gains in stocks such as Western Gold (601069) and Zhaojin Gold (000506) [3] - U.S. gold stocks also saw pre-market gains, with Coeur Mining rising over 7% and other companies like Harmony Gold and Barrick Mining showing significant increases [3] Gold Jewelry Prices - Domestic gold jewelry prices have increased, with major brands adjusting their prices upwards; for instance, Chow Tai Fook raised its price from 1180 to 1190 yuan per gram [3][4] Investment Sentiment - Huatai Futures Research Team maintains a "cautiously bullish" stance on gold and silver, citing tariff risks and ongoing expectations for monetary easing as factors driving prices higher [5] - The precious metals index has risen over 113% this year, significantly outperforming the broader market, with several stocks doubling in value [5][6] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances in the precious metals sector include Zhaojin Gold with a 254.66% increase and Western Gold with a 187.34% increase year-to-date [6] - Hunan Gold has the smallest increase among the listed stocks at 49.21% [6] Risk Advisory - Silver YS (601212) issued a risk warning after its stock price surged 40.10% over four consecutive trading days, indicating potential for future declines [7]

Group 1 - The precious metals sector surged nearly 7% on October 13, with notable stocks like Western Gold, Zhaojin Gold, and others experiencing significant gains [2] - Spot gold reached a historical high of $4,078 per ounce, while spot silver increased over 2% to $51.71 per ounce [2] - Huatai Futures research team indicated that renewed tariff risks and ongoing expectations for monetary easing are driving gold prices to new highs [2] Group 2 - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, which is perceived as a significant fiscal risk, prompting the market to seek safe-haven assets, thus boosting gold prices [2] - There remains strong uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path, but the market leans towards a potential cut in October, providing further support for gold [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Sino-US trade friction expectations have intensified, putting pressure on copper prices. Last week, copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper once reached the $11,000 mark, and SHFE copper reached the 88,000 mark. This was due to the decline of precious metals, the rebound of the US dollar index, and strong technical pressure as copper prices were at a near 5-year high, leading to a strong willingness among short-term bulls to close positions. The sharp rise was mainly caused by supply shortages, macro and financial attributes, and demand resilience. On Friday night, the renewed rise in Sino-US trade friction expectations led to a general market decline, with the non-ferrous sector under significant pressure and copper leading the decline, with SHFE copper falling nearly 3,000 yuan/ton. After the holiday, downstream buyers were cautious at high prices, but as prices fell, industrial support may continue to strengthen. The rise in tariff expectations will affect downstream export expectations, putting pressure on the non-ferrous sector. Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices can stop falling and stabilize. The short-term negative impact was fully reflected in Friday's night session, and LME copper prices rebounded before the domestic market opened on Monday. Sustainable attention can be paid to the technical support at the 83,000 mark, and copper prices may continue to stabilize and rebound [4][54]. - **Aluminum**: Sino-US trade friction expectations have intensified, putting pressure on aluminum prices. Last week, aluminum prices rose and then fell. On Friday night, affected by Sino-US trade friction, aluminum prices declined significantly. Since late September, driven by the rise in copper prices, the non-ferrous sector has generally risen, and aluminum prices have followed suit. However, aluminum prices faced certain pressure at the mid-September high, and there was a strong willingness among bulls to close positions. After the holiday, downstream buyers were cautious at high prices, and the continuous increase in downstream aluminum rod inventories also put pressure on futures prices. Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices in the non-ferrous sector can stabilize, which largely determines the direction of the sector. Technically, SHFE aluminum can focus on the support at the late-September low [5][55]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - On Friday night, the renewed rise in Sino-US trade friction expectations led to a general market decline, with the non-ferrous sector under significant pressure and copper leading the decline, with SHFE copper falling nearly 3,000 yuan/ton. Since late September, copper prices have recorded significant gains, so short-term bulls have a strong willingness to close positions. At the industrial level, downstream buyers were cautious at high prices after the holiday, but as prices fall, industrial support may continue to strengthen. The rise in tariff expectations will affect downstream export expectations, putting pressure on the non-ferrous sector. Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices can stop falling and stabilize. On Monday morning, US President Trump issued another statement, regarded by the market as a "TACO" trade [9]. 3.2 Copper - **Volume and Price Trends**: Last week, copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper once reached the $11,000 mark, and SHFE copper reached the 88,000 mark, affected by the decline of precious metals, the rebound of the US dollar index, and strong technical pressure [4][54]. - **Copper Ore Processing Fees**: Copper ore processing fees have rebounded slightly from a low level [25]. - **Electrolytic Copper De-stocking**: The pace of electrolytic copper de-stocking has slowed down [28]. - **Downstream Primary Sector**: No specific content provided in the report. 3.3 Aluminum - **Volume and Price Trends**: Last week, aluminum prices rose and then fell. On Friday night, affected by Sino-US trade friction, aluminum prices declined significantly. Since late September, driven by the rise in copper prices, the non-ferrous sector has generally risen, and aluminum prices have followed suit [5][55]. - **Upstream Industry Chain**: No specific content provided in the report. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Stockpiling**: The pace of electrolytic aluminum stockpiling has slowed down [44]. - **Downstream Primary Sector**: After the holiday, downstream buyers were cautious at high prices, and the continuous increase in downstream aluminum rod inventories put pressure on futures prices [5][55]. 3.4 Conclusion - **Copper**: Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices can stop falling and stabilize. Sustainable attention can be paid to the technical support at the 83,000 mark, and copper prices may continue to stabilize and rebound [4][54]. - **Aluminum**: Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices in the non-ferrous sector can stabilize, which largely determines the direction of the sector. Technically, SHFE aluminum can focus on the support at the late-September low [5][55].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's October meeting silence period will begin next week, with Chairman Powell set to deliver his final public remarks before the silence on October 15 [1] - Market focus includes potential restructuring of the FOMC due to the new Fed Chair nomination, the impact of a weak U.S. labor market on front-end Treasury yields, and the long-term effects of global "de-dollarization" consensus on the U.S. dollar exchange rate [1] - The forecast suggests a continued weak dollar until the end of 2026, with a potential interest rate cut exceeding expectations by 75 basis points in Q4 2025 [1] Market Summary - Major U.S. indices experienced significant sell-offs due to escalating trade tensions, particularly in response to U.S. tariff comments on China [3] - The S&P 500 index fell by 2.7% to 6,549.5 points, the Dow Jones by 1.9% to 45,453 points, and the Nasdaq 100 by 3.5% to 24,175.75 points, indicating a broad market decline [5] - The VIX index surged as fear and uncertainty increased, while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields declined due to safe-haven demand and expectations of Fed easing [5] Commodity and Currency Movements - WTI crude oil saw a slight rebound from recent lows amid hopes for trade easing [4] - Gold futures surged to historical highs driven by inflows of safe-haven funds and rising rate cut expectations [6] - The dollar index remained stable due to safe-haven demand, while gold showed strength amid these conditions [9] European Market Dynamics - Despite credit rating downgrades in countries like France, European markets displayed resilience, particularly benefiting financial stocks amid regulatory and capital relief expectations [7] - Major European indices, including DAX and CAC, showed general weakness, unable to fully escape global sell-off pressures [9]

Report Overview - Report Title: Yangtze River Futures Precious Metals Weekly Report - Report Date: October 13, 2025 - Report Institution: Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the delayed release of non - farm payroll data, lower - than - expected ADP employment data, the risk of a US government shutdown driving up risk - aversion sentiment, and the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions, precious metal prices continued to rise. The London silver spot market was tight. - There are differences in the market's expectations for the extent of interest rate cuts this year, and the expected end - point of this round of interest rate cuts has been lowered compared to the previous period. The US PPI data for August was lower than expected, and the dot - plot of the interest rate meeting showed that there will be two more interest rate cuts. - The impact of Trump on the independence of the Federal Reserve is apparent, and the US employment situation is slowing down. Powell said that the changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates, and the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is unlikely to be persistent. - With the US economic data trending weaker, the market is concerned about the US fiscal situation and the independence of the Fed. Supported by interest rate cut expectations and risk - aversion sentiment, precious metal prices are expected to remain supported. It is recommended to pay attention to the US non - farm payroll employment data for September released this week [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Gold**: The price of US gold continued its strong trend. As of last Friday, it closed at $4036 per ounce, up 3.2% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4100, and the lower support level is $3960 [6]. - **Silver**: The price of US silver continued to rise. As of last Friday, it had a weekly decline of 1%, closing at $47.5 per ounce. The lower support level is $46.5, and the upper resistance level is $52 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - Due to multiple factors such as delayed non - farm data and government shutdown risks, precious metal prices are expected to be supported. It is necessary to pay attention to the US non - farm payroll employment data for September [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators No specific analysis content is provided in the text, only some data charts are presented, including real interest rates, the US dollar index, yield spreads, the Fed's balance sheet size, and the gold - silver ratio. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - Eurozone retail sales month - on - month rate in August was 0.1%, in line with expectations and an improvement from the previous - month's - 0.5%. - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in October was 55, higher than the expected 54.2 but slightly lower than the previous value of 55.1 [24]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - On October 10, 2025, former US President Trump announced plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, and implement key software export controls, causing a significant shock in the global financial markets. - In the London market, the silver lease rate soared to 34.98% on October 9, reaching a record high. There may be a run - on risk for overseas silver ingot inventories, and it has become extremely difficult for traders in Singapore to borrow silver from banks. The silver ingot price shows a pattern of being stronger overseas and weaker domestically, and it is necessary to closely monitor the opening of the general trade export window and the export trend of silver ingots [25]. 3.6 Inventory - **Gold**: COMEX inventory decreased by 5,294.21 kg to 1,242,294.62 kg this week, and SHFE inventory remained unchanged from last week at 70,728 kg. - **Silver**: COMEX inventory decreased by 292,673.17 kg to 16,250,452.72 kg, and SHFE inventory decreased by 23,221 kg to 1,169,061 kg [13]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - **Gold**: The net long position of CFTC speculative funds in gold this week was 259,261 contracts, an increase of 3,182 contracts from last week. - **Silver**: The net long position of CFTC speculative funds in silver this week was 49,507 contracts, an increase of 729 contracts from last week [13]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Tuesday, October 14, at 20:30, the seasonally - adjusted change in non - farm payroll employment in the US for September and the US unemployment rate for September will be released. - On Thursday, October 16, at 20:30, the US PPI annual rate for September and the US retail sales month - on - month rate for September will be released [34].