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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250827
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 02:01
2025年08月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石:震荡反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢:市场情绪反复,宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板:市场情绪反复,宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁:宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅:宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭:宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤:宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木:震荡反复 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 -1.33% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12601 | | 776. 5 | -10.5 | | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 452. 852 | -11.978 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 讲口矿 | 卡粉(65%) | 885. 0 | 890. 0 | -5.0 | | | | PB (61.5%) | 775. 0 ...
银河期货原糖日报-20250826
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 11:26
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 1 / 5 原木日报 2025 年 8 月 26 日 原木日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 原木价格(日) | | | | 木方价格(日) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 价格 | 日环比(%) | 周同比(%) | 指标 | 价格 | 日环比(%) | 周同比(%) | | 辐射松(3.8A)日照港 | 750 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 辐射松木方:3000*40*90日照 | 1260 | 0.00% | 0.00% | | 辐射松(3.8K)日照港 | 720 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 辐射松木方:3000*40*90镇江 | 1270 | 0.00% | 0.00% | | 辐射松(5.8A)日照港 | 790 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 辐射松木方:3000*40*90东莞 | 1380 | 0.00% | 0.00% | | 云杉(11.8A)日照港 | 1150 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 辐射松木方:3000*40*90重庆 | 14 ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250826
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 01:27
2025年08月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石:宏观风偏尚未显著回调,支撑仍存 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢:市场情绪反复,宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板:市场情绪反复,宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁:板块情绪带动,宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅:板块情绪带动,宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭:宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤:宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木:震荡反复 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 26 日 铁矿石:宏观风偏尚未显著回调,支撑仍存 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 787.0 | 17.0 | 2. 21% | | | I 2601 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 464. 830 | 12. 205 | | | | | 昨日 ...
这是“协议”还是欧盟的“损失控制文件”?
Yang Shi Xin Wen· 2025-08-24 00:44
Core Points - The EU and the US announced a new trade agreement detailing tariffs and market access, with the US imposing a 15% tariff on most EU goods while exempting certain products [1] - The EU committed to eliminating tariffs on US industrial goods and providing preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products [1] - The EU plans to purchase $750 billion worth of US liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear products by 2028, along with $40 billion in US AI chips [1][2] Group 1 - The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU imports, while certain natural resources, aircraft, and generic drugs are exempt [1] - The EU will eliminate tariffs on US industrial products and provide preferential access for US seafood and agricultural goods [1] - The EU aims to significantly increase its procurement of US military and defense equipment [1] Group 2 - The agreement has raised concerns about fairness, with critics arguing it disproportionately favors the US [4][8][16] - There are unresolved issues regarding steel and aluminum tariffs, with no clear solution provided in the agreement [9] - The digital regulatory divide remains a significant point of contention, with no substantial progress made in this area [11] Group 3 - The agreement has been described as a "terrible, complete surrender" by some EU officials, highlighting the lack of reciprocity [8] - Concerns have been raised about the potential negative impact on European growth and employment due to the perceived imbalance in the agreement [16] - The agreement lacks legal binding, raising questions about its long-term viability and enforcement [20][23] Group 4 - The EU is expected to initiate legislation to ensure the US commits to reducing auto tariffs retroactively [23] - The agreement is seen as a "loss control document" for the EU, reflecting its dependency on the US [23][25] - Future negotiations are anticipated to address a fair and balanced trade agreement, although skepticism remains about the EU's leverage [25]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250822
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 01:29
2025年08月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石:宏观风偏尚未显著回调,支撑仍存 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢:宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板:宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁:宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅:宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭:宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤:宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木:震荡反复 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 22 日 铁矿石:宏观风偏尚未显著回调,支撑仍存 | | | 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期货 | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 772. 5 | 3.5 | 0. 46% | | | I 2601 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 451.574 | 11.185 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌 ...
大自然林业上涨6.44%,报1.394美元/股,总市值2308.17万美元
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-08-21 19:41
Core Viewpoint - Nature Forestry (NWGL) experienced a stock price increase of 6.44% on August 22, reaching $1.394 per share, with a total market capitalization of $23.08 million [1] Financial Performance - As of December 31, 2024, Nature Forestry reported total revenue of $21.54 million, a year-on-year decrease of 15.39% [1] - The company recorded a net profit attributable to shareholders of -$8.73 million, which represents a year-on-year increase of 26.86% [1] Company Overview - Nature Forestry Group Limited is a foreign holding company registered in the British Virgin Islands, primarily operated by its domestic subsidiary, Nature Forestry Group Limited [1] - The company is a vertically integrated forestry business focused on FSC operations, located in Peru [1] - Nature Forestry produces a range of products including logs, flooring, lumber, regenerated charcoal, synthetic charcoal, briquette charcoal, and essential oils [1] - The group holds natural forest concessions and logging rights covering approximately 615,333 hectares in Peru [1] - The company collaborates with local forest owners in Peru and participates in timber auctions in France to supply logs [1] - Nature Forestry is committed to sustainable forest management, efficient resource utilization, and continuous product development, aiming to provide high-quality products consistently [1] - The company's goal is to become a leader in the timber industry by offering sustainable and high-quality timber products at reasonable prices [1]
银河期货原糖日报-20250821
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 13:27
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 投资咨询证号: 原木日报 2025 年 8 月 21 日 原木日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 原木价格(日) | | | | 木方价格(日) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 价格 | 日环比(%) | 周同比(%) | 指标 | 价格 | 日环比(%) | 周同比(%) | | 辐射松(3.8A)日照港 | 750 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 辐射松木方:3000*40*90日照 | 1260 | 0.00% | 0.00% | | 辐射松(3.8K)日照港 | 720 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 辐射松木方:3000*40*90镇江 | 1270 | 0.00% | 0.00% | | 辐射松(5.8A)日照港 | 790 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 辐射松木方:3000*40*90东莞 | 1380 | 0.00% | 0.00% | | 云杉(11.8A)日照港 | 1150 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 辐射松木方:3000*40*90重庆 | ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250821
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 01:41
2025年08月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石:宏观风偏尚未显著回调,支撑仍存 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢:宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板:宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁:市场情绪冷淡,偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅:市场情绪冷淡,偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭:宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤:宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木:震荡反复 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 铁矿石趋势强度:1 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 21 日 铁矿石:宏观风偏尚未显著回调,支撑仍存 | 张广硕 | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | 来源:Mysteel,东财 Choice,国泰君安期货研究所 【宏观及行业新闻】 财联社 8 月 16 日电,据央视新闻,当地时间 8 月 15 日,美国特朗普政府宣布扩大对钢铁和铝进口 ...
贸易专题分析报告:对等关税未完待续
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-19 14:49
Group 1: Tariff Strategy - Tariffs are a key tool in Trump's economic policy, evolving from targeted strikes to a comprehensive strategy in his second term[2] - The tariff strategy consists of four main components: reciprocal tariffs, punitive tariffs, transshipment tariffs, and industry protection barriers[6] - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. has increased by 16.2 percentage points, reaching 18.6%, the highest level since the Great Depression[29] Group 2: Trade Relations and Impact - The U.S. is transitioning to a more decentralized trade structure, moving away from reliance on the U.S.-China economic relationship[3] - The imposition of tariffs has led to a significant increase in import costs, with specific tariffs reaching as high as 50% on steel and aluminum products[21] - The U.S. government is using tariffs as a diplomatic tool, with punitive tariffs being applied to countries like Canada and Mexico, and targeting third-party nations involved in trade with adversaries[11] Group 3: Economic Consequences - Pre-tariff import surges led to a 4.67% month-on-month increase in imports in March, followed by a 1.39% year-on-year decline in June, indicating a demand pullback[29] - U.S. businesses are entering a de-inventory phase, with durable goods inventory growth slowing from 1.52% in March to 0.17% in June[29] - The uncertainty surrounding new tariff tools and potential trade negotiations post-midterm elections poses risks to global supply chains and capital markets[4]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250819
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 02:02
Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report provides trend forecasts for various black - series commodities, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. For example, iron ore has support as the macro risk appetite has not significantly declined; rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to have wide - range fluctuations; ferrosilicon is expected to have a weak - side fluctuation due to weak sector sentiment; silicomanganese is expected to have wide - range fluctuations with a firm spot quotation; coke and coking coal are expected to fluctuate at high levels; logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][5][8][9][13][16][19]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend Forecast**: Macro risk appetite has not significantly declined, and there is still support [2][5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The trend strength is 1. On August 15, 2025, the Trump administration of the United States announced an expansion of the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products in the tariff - adding list [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Trend Forecast**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][8][9]. - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar futures contract RB2510, the closing price was 3,155 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (- 0.88%); for hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2510, the closing price was 3,419 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (- 0.20%). In early August 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel increased by 4.7% month - on - month, pig iron by 3.2% month - on - month, and steel decreased by 4.1% month - on - month. The trend strength of both is 0 [9][10][12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend Forecast**: Ferrosilicon is expected to have a weak - side fluctuation due to weak sector sentiment; silicomanganese is expected to have wide - range fluctuations with a firm spot quotation [2][13]. - **Fundamental Data**: For example, the closing price of ferrosilicon 2509 was 5,710 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; the closing price of silicomanganese 2509 was 6,026 yuan/ton, unchanged. As of August 16, the total manganese ore inventory decreased by 1.65 million tons month - on - month. The trend strength of both is 0 [13][14][15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend Forecast**: Both are expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][16]. - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal futures contract JM2601, the closing price was 1,187.5 yuan/ton, down 42.5 yuan (- 3.5%); for coke futures contract J2601, the closing price was 1,702 yuan/ton, down 27.5 yuan (- 1.6%). The trend strength of both is 0 [16][18]. Logs - **Trend Forecast**: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][19]. - **Fundamental Data**: The price of various log products showed different changes in terms of closing price, trading volume, and position. For example, the closing price of the 2509 log contract decreased by 2.1% week - on - week. In July, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline generally narrowed. The trend strength is 0 [20][22].