【环球时报驻加拿大特约记者 陶短房】据加拿大广播公司8日报道，加总理马克·卡尼下周将访问中国，与中方讨论贸易、能源和安全问题。若成 行，这将是2017年以来加拿大总理首次访问中国。加媒认为，此次访问力图修复加中关系，意义重大。加拿大农业部门期待卡尼访华缓解贸易紧 张局势。加拿大《环球新闻》评论称："对于萨斯喀彻温省的农民来说，这次旅行真是盼星星盼月亮。" 《华尔街日报》评论说，卡尼此行也有努力减少对美贸易依赖的意图。报道称，美国对钢铁、铝、汽车和木材产品等加征高额关税，使加拿大经 济承压。"贸易不确定性已促使企业缩减或推迟投资和招聘计划，而即将到来的美国对现有《美墨加协定》的重新评估就凸显了这种不确定性。" 美国占加拿大出口总额的75.9%，远超其第二大贸易伙伴中国。加拿大前外交官科林·罗伯逊撰文称，加中应该加强交流，但"应该降低预期"。罗 伯逊认为，卡尼访华是一次对加中关系的"谨慎重启"，"加拿大至少需要可预测性"。 《环球新闻》援引萨斯喀彻温省油菜籽公司政策经理戴尔·莱夫特维奇的话称："我们非常希望能够真正缓解贸易紧张局势，并允许更多油菜籽出 口到中国，因为中国是我们最大的客户之一。"萨斯喀彻温省农业生产 ...

隔夜美糖震荡。国际方面，短期来看，市场主要的关注点是北半球的产量预期差。25/26榨季印度生产进度较快，产糖量同比大 幅增加。不过。泰国的生产进度较慢、产糖量不及预期，关注后续生产数据的变化。国内方面，郑糖震荡。生产方面，12月广 西产销双减。12月广西单月产糖180.8万吨，同比减少43.1万吨；销糖79.54万吨，同比减少55.18万吨；工业库存105.71万吨, 同比减少6.21万吨。从产销数据来看，相对偏多。销量大幅下降的主要原因是市场看空情绪较强,导致采购较少。产量方面, 虽然25/26榨季广西增产预期较强,但是生产进度始终偏慢,如果后期产量无法增加,期货价格将向上修复，关注后续生产情 况，操作上暂时观望。 (苹果) 期价高位震荡。现货方面,主流价格持稳、需求有所增加。陕西部分软半商品果农货要价下调，果农出货意愿有所增加。产地 冷库客商包装自有货源发市场为主,对果农货采购较少。由于客商开始为春节备货,冷库成交量有所增加。库存方面,卓创的 数据显示，截至12月26日，全国冷库苹果库存为702.1万吨，同比下降12.76%。全国冷库苹果去库量为10.6万吨，同比下降 14. 17%。从交易逻辑来看，市场 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot prices of mainstream radiata pine products in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained stable, with a price difference of 0 yuan/m³ for 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine between the two regions. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply [4]. - As of December 21, there were 33 ships departing from New Zealand in December, with 26 bound for mainland China. It is estimated that 15 ships will arrive in December and 18 in January, with an expected arrival volume of 1.58 million cubic meters in December [5][8]. - As of the week of December 26, the daily average shipment volume and inventory of the four major ports remained unchanged from the previous week, with a total inventory of 1.9131 million cubic meters [6]. - As of December 31, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 776 yuan/m³, a 0.3% increase from the previous week. The market was in a high - level oscillation pattern with a weak supply - demand fundamental situation. The monthly spreads tended to narrow [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of December 21, there were 33 ships departing from New Zealand in December, 26 of which were going to mainland China and 7 to Taiwan, China, and South Korea for partial unloading. It is expected that about 15 ships will arrive in December and 18 in January, with an expected arrival volume of 1.58 million cubic meters in December [5][8]. - Detailed information on the departure time, load, current port, expected destination port, and expected arrival time of 33 ships from New Zealand in December is provided [8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of January 2, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 21,600 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), and that of Taicang Port was 14,600 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week). - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.2668 million cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), Taicang Port about 385,500 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), Xinminzhou about 126,500 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), and Jiangdu Port about 134,300 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week). The total inventory of the four major ports was 1.9131 million cubic meters, with no change in inventory from the previous week [12]. - A table shows the inventory and daily shipment volume of major domestic ports over multiple time periods, including inventory changes compared to the previous week and four weeks ago [13]. 3.3 Market Trends - As of December 31, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 776 yuan/m³, a 0.3% increase from the previous week. The market was in a high - level oscillation pattern, and the fundamentals maintained a weak supply - demand situation. The monthly spreads tended to narrow. The 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 10.5 yuan/m³, the 03 - 07 monthly spread was - 22.5 yuan/m³, and the 05 - 07 monthly spread was - 12 yuan/m³ [18]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: The report provides the spot price data of various tree species and specifications of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu regions, showing that most prices remained unchanged from the previous week [21]. - **Regional Spread**: The report presents the price spreads of mainstream tree species between Shandong and Jiangsu regions, including 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, etc. [22][23]. - **Species and Specification Spread**: The report shows the price spreads between different tree species and specifications, such as the spread between 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine and 40 + radiata pine [41]. 3.5 Other - **Freight and Exchange Rate**: As of the week of January 4, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1877.00 points, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 719 points, and the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1656.32 points. The US dollar index weakened, the US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.003, a 0.06% decrease from the previous week, and the US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 1.3% to 1.736 [56]. - A table shows the changes in freight - related indices and exchange rates over multiple time periods, including the comparison with the previous week and four weeks ago [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices are likely to remain range-bound, supported by macro factors but constrained by the industry [2] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to experience a bullish oscillation due to the game between long and short funds [2] - Coke is expected to experience high-level oscillations as the fourth round of price cuts begins [2] - Coking coal is expected to experience high-level oscillations due to year-end production cuts [2] - Logs are expected to experience low-level oscillations [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2605 futures contract was 789.0 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan/ton or 0.94% from the previous day. The open interest decreased by 16,080 lots to 613,601 lots. The prices of imported and domestic iron ore increased slightly, and the basis widened [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to November, the total operating income of state-owned enterprises was 75.62576 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%; the total profit was 3.71945 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%; and the taxes payable were 5.2803 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2% [5] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the RB2605 and HC2605 futures contracts were 3,134 yuan/ton and 3,282 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.10%) and 11 yuan/ton (-0.33%) respectively. The open interest of RB2605 increased by 30,014 lots, and that of HC2605 increased by 7,022 lots. Spot prices remained stable, and the basis and spreads changed slightly [7] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 25, the weekly data from Steelhome showed that rebar production increased by 2.71 tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 1.63 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties decreased by 36.79 tons. In mid-December 2025, the average daily output of key steel enterprises decreased, and the steel inventory increased. The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products. In mid-November, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities decreased. In October 2025, China's steel imports decreased [9] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of rebar and hot-rolled coil are both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Ferrosilicon2603 and Ferrosilicon2605 futures contracts were 5,750 yuan/ton and 5,706 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan/ton. The closing prices of the Silicomanganese2603 and Silicomanganese2605 futures contracts were 5,942 yuan/ton and 5,948 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton and 60 yuan/ton respectively. Spot prices increased, and the basis and spreads changed [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 30, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions increased. The export tariffs of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese will remain unchanged in 2026. In December, the average operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises decreased, and the production decreased year-on-year. The production in Ningxia and Shaanxi increased compared with November [12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the JM2605 and J2605 futures contracts were 1,119.5 yuan/ton and 1,715 yuan/ton, up 31.5 yuan/ton (2.9%) and 34.5 yuan/ton (2.1%) respectively. Spot prices remained stable, and the basis and spreads changed [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 30, the CCI metallurgical coal index and the Mysteel metallurgical coke (dry quenching) domestic spot price index remained unchanged [15] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [18] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the 2603, 2605, and 2607 futures contracts were 776, 787.5, and 796.5 respectively, with small fluctuations in prices and trading volumes. Spot prices remained stable [19] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 29, the State Council Tariff Commission issued the "2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan", which will be implemented from January 1, 2026 [21] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different commodities and financial products having their own characteristics. Some are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, some by geopolitical factors, and others by macro - economic policies and seasonal factors. The market rhythm switches quickly, and most products are in a state of oscillation, with different potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][14] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries like polycrystalline silicon and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively positive trend, while others such as urea and PVC may face certain challenges in supply - demand balance and price trends [13][18][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold prices continued a moderate upward trend after the breakthrough, while silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their rise, with a gain of over 10%. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The spot shortage expectation makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly below the average. However, exchange restrictions are frequent, and market volatility is extremely high [2] - **Copper**: Copper prices continued to rise strongly last Friday. The Shanghai copper weighted reached a maximum of 102,700 yuan, and it is expected that the London copper will open at $12,700 - $12,800. The market has quickly reached the bullish targets of most overseas institutions for 2026. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market's fundamentals are neutral, with poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the upward trend, with relatively mild fluctuations. Long - positions should be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [4] - **Zinc**: In late December, domestic smelter overhauls increased, supporting the adjustment of Shanghai zinc above the annual line. In January, the pressure on the zinc ingot supply side is small, and with the late Spring Festival in 2026 and the expected good start, the consumption side is not pessimistic. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, with the shipping rhythm in the Middle East and Russia slowing down. The demand side may be boosted by improved refinery profits and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, and the high - inventory pressure is still significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is dominated by overseas refinery starts. The demand side of ship fuel consumption is continuously weak due to high - sulfur substitution [21] - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. The supply - demand of BU is marginally relaxed, but positive news has a significant boost. However, it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand relaxation [22] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated downward after reopening last Friday, and Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. In the future, attention should be paid to the specific export situation of US soybeans and whether the La Nina weather in South America can have a continuous impact [35] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded from a low level last week, and the weekly signing data improved, with increased Chinese purchases. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose continuously, and the market is bullish. Although this year's new cotton production has increased significantly, the commercial inventory is basically the same as the previous year, and the sales progress is relatively fast [42] Others - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the broader market oscillated with heavy volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an 8 - day consecutive gain. All major futures index contracts closed higher, with IC leading the gain. Industrial profits of large - scale enterprises from January to November showed a growth trend, and the RMB exchange rate broke "7" last week [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: On December 26, 2025, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had the largest increase of 0.36%. In December, the central bank's net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, a consecutive tenth - month incremental renewal. Against the background of increased counter - cyclical adjustment policies, long - term interest rates have risen significantly recently [48]

Core Viewpoints - Industrial enterprise profits continue to decline, primarily due to a significant drop in the contribution from other gains and ongoing cost pressures [3][64] - In November, industrial enterprise profits fell by 4.6 percentage points year-on-year to -13.4%, with profit margins also decreasing [6][33] - The decline in profits is attributed to a notable decrease in other gains, which fell by 9.4 percentage points to -5.1% [3][64] Revenue - In November, industrial enterprise revenue showed improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, slightly down from 1.8% in the previous month [2][8] - The actual revenue growth rate, excluding price factors, rose by 3.1 percentage points to 3.1%, positively impacting profit contributions [4][27] - Revenue growth was observed across major industrial chains, with the petrochemical, metallurgy, and consumer chains all experiencing increases [4][27] Costs - Industrial enterprises faced significant cost pressures in November, with the overall cost rate at 84.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous year [4][23] - The metallurgy chain experienced the highest cost pressure, with a cost rate of 85.4%, which is 0.7 percentage points higher than last year [4][23] - Certain sectors, such as non-ferrous rolling and instrumentation, saw notable increases in cost rates, while the petrochemical and consumer chains experienced slight declines [4][23] Industry Performance - Specific industries, such as beverages and food, saw a dramatic decline in profit growth, with beverage profits dropping by 93.4 percentage points to -90.4% [3][17] - The negative contributions from industries like non-ferrous processing and oil and gas extraction further impacted overall profit performance [3][17] - Despite some revenue recovery, the pressures from other gains and costs significantly affected profitability in these sectors [3][17] Inventory - The nominal inventory of industrial enterprises increased by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year to 4.6% in November, indicating a slight rise in actual inventory growth [6][50] - The actual inventory growth rate, adjusted for price factors, was 7.7%, reflecting changes in inventory management across different sectors [6][50]

Core Viewpoints - Industrial enterprise profits continued to decline, primarily due to a significant drop in other gains and ongoing cost pressures [3][64] - In November, industrial enterprise profits fell by 4.6 percentage points year-on-year to -13.4%, with profit margins also decreasing [6][33] - The decline in profits is attributed to a notable decrease in contributions from other gains, which fell by 9.4 percentage points to -5.1% [3][64] Revenue - In November, industrial enterprise revenue showed improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, slightly down from 1.8% in the previous month [2][8] - The actual revenue growth rate, excluding price factors, rose by 3.1 percentage points to 3.1%, positively impacting profit comparisons [4][27] - Revenue growth was observed across major industrial chains, with the petrochemical, metallurgy, and consumer chains all experiencing increases [4][27] Costs - Industrial enterprises faced significant cost pressures in November, with the overall cost rate at 84.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous year [4][23] - The metallurgy chain experienced the highest cost pressure, with a cost rate of 85.4%, which is 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous year [4][23] - Certain sectors, such as non-ferrous rolling and instrumentation, saw notable increases in cost rates, while the petrochemical and consumer chains experienced slight declines [4][23] Industry Performance - Specific industries, such as beverages and food, saw a dramatic decline in profit growth, with beverage profits dropping by 93.4 percentage points to -90.4% [3][17] - The negative contributions from industries like non-ferrous processing and oil and gas extraction further impacted overall profit performance [3][17] - Despite some revenue recovery in these sectors, the decline in other gains significantly affected profit margins [3][17] Inventory - The nominal inventory of industrial enterprises increased by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year to 4.6% in November, indicating a slight rise in actual inventory growth [6][50] - The actual inventory growth rate, adjusted for price factors, was 7.7%, reflecting changes in inventory levels across different stages of production [6][50] Summary - High cost rates remain a key constraint on profit recovery, with ongoing "anti-involution" policies being implemented to address these pressures [5][66] - The current profit pressures are largely due to rigid cost increases driven by downstream investment practices [5][66] - Future monitoring will focus on the effectiveness of policies aimed at alleviating cost pressures and their impact on industrial profitability [5][66]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][6] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil are expected to have wide-range fluctuations [2][7][8] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have wide-range fluctuations due to market information disturbances [2][12] - Coke and coking coal are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][16] - Logs are expected to fluctuate at low levels [2][20] Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2605 contract was 778.5 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.13%. The open interest was 567,104 lots, up 13,387 lots. Spot prices were stable. The basis and spreads showed some minor changes [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 1-year LPR was 3%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged from last month [5] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the RB2605 contract was 3,127 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03%. The HC2605 contract closed at 3,280 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03%. Spot prices had some minor changes, and there were also changes in basis and spreads [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 25, steel union weekly data showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand for rebar and hot-rolled coil [9] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts showed various changes. Spot prices and spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese from different regions, and news about furnace start-ups and shutdowns in some factories [13][14][15] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of JM2605 and J2605 contracts decreased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke had some changes, and there were also changes in basis and spreads [16] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 1-year LPR was 3%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged from last month [17] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [19] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of various types of logs were mostly stable, with some minor changes [21] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 1-year LPR was 3%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged from last month [23] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [23]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - Gold: Volatile and bullish [6] - Silver: Volatile and bullish [6] - Logs: Volatile [6] - Pulp: Volatile [8] - Offset paper: Weakly volatile [8] - Soybean oil: Rebound [8] - Palm oil: Rebound [8] - Rapeseed oil: Rebound [8] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [8] - Live pigs: Volatile [9] - Rubber: Volatile [12] - PX: Widely volatile [12] - PTA: Widely volatile [12] - MEG: Volatile [12] - PR: On the sidelines [12] - PF: On the sidelines [12] Core Views - The iron ore market features loose supply, low demand, and rising port inventories. The new global mine production in 2026 is expected to reach 64 - 65 million tons, with growth far exceeding that of crude steel. The current hot metal output is decreasing, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. The implementation of the steel export license management system is a definite negative for raw materials [2]. - The coking coal and coke markets are supported by capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies. However, the steel export license management system has shifted market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives [2]. - The steel market has seen improved sentiment due to the emphasis on expanding domestic demand. The implementation of the steel export license management system requires a downward adjustment of next year's steel export expectations, and attention should be paid to whether it matches the crude steel production control policy [2]. - The glass market has a supply - demand contradiction. With the decline in absolute prices, there are expectations of production line cold repairs, but the supply contraction is less than expected, and demand is weak due to the continuous decline in real - estate completion [2]. - The financial market shows short - term volatility and medium - term upward trends. High - tech industries continue to grow. The implementation of local special bond balance limits has supported year - end general fiscal expenditures [4]. - The precious metals market is supported by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical gold demand in China. Although the Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may cause short - term fluctuations, the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [6]. - The logs market has a weak supply - demand pattern. Supply pressure is gradually weakening, and demand is relatively soft, so prices are expected to be volatile [6]. - The pulp market has a loose supply - demand situation. Although cost supports prices, paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp due to high inventory and low profitability may keep prices volatile [8]. - The oil and fat market has seen a short - term rebound driven by strong crude oil prices. However, demand prospects are uncertain, and attention should be paid to weather in South American soybean - producing areas and palm oil production and sales in Malaysia [8]. - The meal market is generally volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are relatively loose, and the weak performance of US soybeans and abundant domestic supplies may lead to a downward trend [8]. - The live pig market is expected to be volatile. The average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice [9]. - The natural rubber market is affected by weather in major producing areas, and demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12]. - The PX and PTA markets are affected by geopolitical factors and oil price fluctuations. PX prices are currently strong, while PTA may face cost - side instability [12]. - The MEG market has long - term inventory pressure, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12]. - The PR and PF markets are affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: In 2026, global mine production will increase by 64 - 65 million tons. Current demand is weak, and the steel export license system is negative for raw materials. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supported by policies but affected by the shift in steel export expectations. Short - term, the disappearance of export orders may impact raw material demand and prices [2] - **Rebar and hot - rolled coils**: Market sentiment has improved, but export expectations need adjustment, and attention should be paid to production control policies [2] - **Glass**: Supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Cold repairs are expected, but demand is weak due to real - estate factors [2] - **Soda ash**: No significant information provided other than being grouped as volatile [2] Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: Previous trading day's index performance varied. Central enterprise policies and infrastructure investment are positive for the market [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is down, and market trends are slightly rebounding. The implementation of local special bond balance limits supports fiscal expenditures [4] Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Prices are volatile and bullish, supported by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical demand in China. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term factors [6] Light Industry - **Logs**: Supply pressure is weakening, demand is soft, and prices are expected to be volatile. Spot prices are stable, and to - port volumes are expected to decrease [6] - **Pulp**: Supply - demand is loose. Cost supports prices, but paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp may keep prices volatile [8] - **Offset paper**: Supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides some support, but social orders are average. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [8] Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: Short - term rebound driven by crude oil, but demand prospects are uncertain. Attention should be paid to South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [8] - **Meals**: Volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are loose, and domestic supplies are abundant [8] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: Average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice. Prices are expected to be volatile [9] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Affected by weather in major producing areas, demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12] Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical factors drive oil price increases, and PX supply is high. PXN spreads are temporarily stable, and prices are strong [12] - **PTA**: Oil price fluctuations may loosen the cost side. Although short - term supply - demand has improved, seasonal weakening is inevitable [12] - **MEG**: Long - term inventory pressure exists, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12] - **PR and PF**: Affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12]

巴媒报道，美巴商会研究表明，在2025年8月至11月期间，受美加征关税影响，巴21个行业对美出 口同比下降，出口总额减少约 15 亿美元，其中食品、塑料和橡胶、木材、金属及运输设备等行业损失 最重。 （原标题：今年8-11月巴西对美国出口下降） ...