2025年07月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：板块情绪共振，偏强震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：板块情绪共振，偏强震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：成本预期或有抬升，偏强震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：成本预期或有抬升，偏强震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：震荡偏强 | 7 | | 焦煤：消息扰动，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 动力煤：日耗修复，震荡企稳 | 9 | | 原木：主力切换，宽幅震荡 | 10 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 11 日 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12509 | | 763. 5 | 27.0 | ...

Group 1 - In May 2025, Estonia's total goods trade reached €3.43 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [1] - Exports amounted to €1.57 billion, growing by 1.9%, while imports were €1.86 billion, increasing by 6.1% [1] - The trade deficit was €280 million, which is an increase of €78 million compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The most exported goods in May 2025 were electrical equipment, accounting for 15.3% of total exports, with an 11% year-on-year increase [1] - Agricultural products and food preparations made up 12.7% of exports, growing by 16% [1] - The largest import category was agricultural products and food, comprising 13.7% of total imports, with a 5% increase [1] Group 3 - In the first five months of 2025, Estonia's total goods trade reached €17.17 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [2] - Cumulative exports for this period were €7.85 billion, up by 9.3%, while imports totaled €9.32 billion, increasing by 9.8% [2] - The trade deficit for the first five months was €1.46 billion, which is an increase of €160 million compared to the previous year [2]

| 天然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年7月10日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 7月9日 | 7月8日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营会乱胶(SCRWF):下海 | 13950 | 13950 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) | -ਰੇਟ | -32 | -60 | -171.43% | | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13850 | 13850 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 非标价差 | -195 | -135 | -60 | -44.44% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 47.30 | 47.50 | -0.20 | -0.42% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 54.30 | 54.50 | -0.20 | -0.37% | | | 天然橡胶:胶 ...

Group 1 - The "Lucky 6666" vessel, carrying 38,000 cubic meters of wood chips, is unloading at Zhangzhou Port, which is the largest timber distribution center in Southeast China [3] - In the first half of this year, Zhangzhou Port has imported 1.6185 million cubic meters of wood chips, representing a year-on-year increase of 177.34% [3] - The Zhangzhou border inspection station has implemented measures to streamline customs procedures, reducing average processing time by 40% and saving over 33 million yuan in customs costs for enterprises in 2024 [3][4] Group 2 - The wood chip import business has significantly boosted the local timber industry, which is becoming an important source of income for Zhangzhou [4] - The logistics system at Zhangzhou Port allows for efficient transportation of raw wood to local processing facilities, where it is transformed into various paper products [4]

交割逻辑支撑盘面，关注仓单注册情况 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 目录 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 价格：现货价格：日照港3.9米中A辐射松原木750元/方，较上周上涨10元/方，周环比上涨1.35%，太仓港4米中A辐射松原木760元 /方，周环比持平。供应：原木周到港：本周新西兰原木预计到港总量约41.6万方，较上周增加5.7976万方；本期针叶原木总库存，345 万方，较上周增加6万方，周环比增加1.77%；需求：2022年1-5月，全国房屋新开工面积5.2亿平方米，同比下降30.6%。本期13港原木 日均出库量5.98万方，周环比下跌5.23%，月环比下跌2.61%。进口成本：本月辐射松CFR最低价108.5美金/JAS立方米，月环比+0.46%。 目前下游加工厂库存刚需买货，随着近期原木现货连续掉价，下游出库有好转，但终端市场依旧低迷，目前挺价的和持续性和成交量 都有待考量。中长期，在房地产需求减弱和港口库存增加的双重压力下，原木现货 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant financial challenges in 2024, with a revenue of 602 million yuan, a net loss of 334 million yuan, and a cumulative loss of 823 million yuan over the past three years, indicating ongoing operational difficulties and a need for strategic reassessment [2][4]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 602 million yuan in 2024, representing a 144.46% increase year-on-year, but incurred a net loss of 334 million yuan, worsening from the previous year [2][4]. - The gross margin for 2024 was -9.50%, with total operating costs amounting to 659 million yuan [2][4]. - Quarterly revenue breakdown for 2024 showed fluctuations: 53 million yuan, 248 million yuan, 193 million yuan, and 108 million yuan, with corresponding gross margins of -5.49%, -4.38%, -0.35%, and -39.44% [2][4]. Container Floor Business - The container floor segment generated 493 million yuan in revenue for 2024, a substantial increase of 301.37% compared to the previous year, but also reported a gross margin of -9.40% [5][6]. - Production for container floors was 20,800 cubic meters, while sales reached 119,000 cubic meters, indicating a high sales volume relative to production [6][11]. - The company faced high customer and supplier concentration, with the top five customers accounting for 79.96% of sales and the top five suppliers for 71.52% of purchases [6][10]. Operational Challenges - The significant loss in Q4 2024 was attributed to various factors, including depreciation of 74.5 million yuan and inventory impairment losses of approximately 52.6 million yuan [3][4]. - The company terminated recognition of deferred tax assets amounting to 55.2 million yuan, contributing to the increased losses in Q4 [4][11]. - The operational strategy included a shift towards OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) partnerships to meet rising demand, with OEM sales accounting for 73% of total container floor sales in 2024 [11][12]. Customer and Supplier Dynamics - The company reported changes in its major customers, with new additions such as Zhejiang Fanyang Special Equipment Co., Ltd. and China Ocean Shipping Group, while traditional customers like Xinhua Chang Group remained significant [9][10]. - The top five suppliers included Feixian Zongseng Board Factory and Shandong Shengdeze New Materials Co., Ltd., with a focus on maintaining stable supply chains amid market fluctuations [10][12]. OEM Business Model - The OEM business model was adopted to address the inability to meet large-scale production demands, with a focus on quality control and supplier management [11][12]. - The company emphasized that it does not engage in direct trading of finished products from suppliers to customers, maintaining control over the production and quality assurance processes [12][14]. - The OEM revenue accounted for approximately 60% of total revenue in 2024, highlighting the strategic pivot towards outsourcing production to meet market demands [12][13].

2025年上半年，全球局势仍充满不确定性因素，不过越南经济展现出强劲增长势头。 越南2025年第二季度国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长7.96%，上半年GDP同比增长7.52%，为2011 年—2025年期间同期最高水平。 在出口恢复与内需提振的双重推动下，越南政府正加紧落实政策，以确保实现全年8%的增长目 标。分析人士预计，下半年经济增速有望达到8.42%。 核心驱动力 在全球贸易与金融格局持续重塑的背景下，越南正逐步展现出更具韧性和多元化的增长动能。多重 经济引擎相互作用，为其2025年的高增长描绘出清晰路径。 越南正在释放"人口红利"的潜能。根据联合国最新统计，该国总人口已达约1.016亿，其中15至64 岁的劳动年龄人口占比超过67%，0至14岁人群占比仍稳定在23%左右，表明越南仍处于人口结构的"黄 金时期"。 劳动力市场同样表现稳健。2025年上半年，越南劳动力参与人数达5300万，劳动适龄人口失业率降 至2.22%。同期，平均月收入上升至约325美元，反映出就业和收入增长的积极趋势。 出口方面，越南继续展现外向型经济的活力。越南统计总局数据显示，2025年6月出口额达到约 219.8亿美元，同比增 ...

记者 梁明 推动"企业互帮"是安徽省深入推进质量技术帮扶活动的又一抓手。以小微企业质量提升、大中型企业质 量强企为工作目标，全力推进大企帮小企活动，推动企业间优势互补，为企业提供携手联动发展机遇， 助力行业产品质量提升。截至6月底，安徽省已推动62家工业产品生产企业开展"互帮"。 今年以来，安徽省市场监管部门组织开展产品质量技术帮扶"你点我帮"活动，探索建立企业"点单"、市 场监管部门"派单"、技术专家"接单"、企业"评单"的质量技术帮扶模式。截至6月底，安徽省市场监管 部门已帮扶企业1301家，帮助解决质量问题401个，推动企业提升工业产值约3.4亿元。 安徽省市场监管局相关负责人表示，下一步，全省市场监管部门将进一步加大宣传工作力度，持续开 展"你点我帮"、引导企业"互帮"，推动产品质量技术帮扶活动取得更大成效。 "在市场监管部门的帮扶下，企业在配方成本控制、无氧铜带纯净度和导电率、复合生产工艺等方面取 得了质量突破，产品经用户使用反映良好，产生显著的经济和社会效益。"铜陵有色金属集团股份有限 公司金威铜业分公司首席质量官王之平介绍。 据了解，"你点我帮"活动是安徽省市场监管部门深入推进质量技术帮扶活动的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of trade tensions, initiated by President Trump's unilateral tariff actions, has prompted a strong response from various countries, indicating a shift from unilateralism to a more diversified and autonomous trade strategy [1][8]. Group 1: Global Reactions - India has announced plans to impose retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., showcasing a strategic response to U.S. pressure on local manufacturing rules [3]. - The European Union, Japan, and South Korea have also expressed their intent to counteract U.S. tariffs, emphasizing the importance of protecting national interests and rejecting passive acceptance of imposed rules [4]. - The collective response from these nations indicates a growing trend of countries actively defending their economic interests against unilateral trade actions [4]. Group 2: China's Preparedness - China has been preparing for trade tensions for eight years, successfully reducing its trade dependency on the U.S. from over 20% to around 12% [6]. - The Chinese economy has shown resilience, with a GDP growth of 5.4% in Q1 2025, and a 6.3% increase in exports in May, reflecting the effectiveness of its economic reforms [6]. - China's manufacturing sector has transitioned from low-end production to high-tech and intelligent manufacturing, with significant advancements in various industries [7]. Group 3: Strategic Shifts - The trade conflict has accelerated the diversification strategies of emerging economies like India and China, pushing them towards a more balanced and multipolar global trade environment [8]. - The emphasis on upgrading traditional industries and investing in new technologies, such as AI and quantum technology, highlights China's proactive approach to global supply chain challenges [7].

近期，中国人民银行广西壮族自治区分行在广西柳州市启动明示企业贷款综合融资成本试点工作，由银 行与客户一同填写融资过程中涉及的各类费用，形成"贷款明白纸"。同时，银行客户经理运用专业知 识，引导企业规避不合理收费，并为符合条件的企业争取无还本续贷、政府性融资担保、财政贴息等支 持政策，促进企业综合融资成本下降。 目前，相关试点银行通过"试点先行、逐步推广"的方式，不断扩大开展试点工作的网点范围，为当地企 业营造了良好的融资环境。截至2025年5月末，试点银行合计向154家经营主体明示"贷款明白纸"，服务 贷款金额19.66亿元。这些数据背后，是一个个鲜活的企业融资案例，生动展现了"贷款明白纸"如何为 企业带来实实在在的融资便利和成本降低。 柳州市柳城县马山镇是当地木材加工产业园的所在地，凭借其产业优势与政策支持，持续吸引着来自山 东、湖南等地的成熟木材加工企业入驻。广西某木业有限公司作为该产业园内的头部企业，因扩大生产 规模，面临着流动资金紧张的困境。柳城农商银行在获知这一情况后，迅速响应，第一时间上门进行对 接与调查，并依据企业的实际需求，为其提供了800万元的机械设备抵押流动资金贷款。同时，该行协 助企业填 ...