一方面，石墨是电动汽车电池的关键原材料，美燃油车被称"油老虎"在市场上不具备竞争优势，转型发展电动汽车破局，多家车企电池所用精炼石墨几乎全 由中方供应，160%关税出炉不仅会影响产量，还会动摇车企股价，另一方面，"稀土之痛"还在折磨美国，身为世界上最大石墨生产与出口国的中国若出手 管制石墨出口，买单者只会是有关美企，况且，美国看似针对石墨，实则也在打击中国电动汽车行业。 阿尔巴尼斯访华行非常成功，特朗普的热络还未得回应，一方面，美急着和中国做生意，另一方面，"百日访华"计划已破产，九三阅兵和亚太经合组织会议 两次能访华的机会特朗普必须抓住，不达目的誓不罢休的美国改变态度，改口称中国帮了美国大忙，美国似是想挽回中方决定，背地里却又一次对华举起关 税大刀。 据美国财政部7月17日公布的数据，中国已经连续三月减持美债，准确的说，从2022年俄乌冲突开始中方就在减持，三年减持数值分别是1732亿、508亿和 573亿美元，减持的目的，既是提防美国将货币武器化，也是想调整海外资产负债结构，美西方对俄罗斯海外资产所做之事给中方提醒，美方又一向视中方 为地缘政治对手，减持美债是对中国财富的保护。 然而，美债虽有日英两国顶上 ...

Group 1 - The current global geopolitical landscape presents significant challenges for the US and Europe, with China playing a crucial role in the dynamics between these powers [1][5][6] - Europe has recognized the risks of over-reliance on China for supply chains, particularly highlighted during the COVID-19 pandemic when mask production was largely concentrated in China [2][4] - The trend towards protectionism has accelerated, prompting Europe to diversify its supply chains and seek new markets in countries like India, Bangladesh, and Vietnam [4][12] Group 2 - The relationship between Europe and the US is undergoing profound changes, with increasing tensions and challenges, particularly in defense spending and trade policies [6][7][8] - The US has imposed tariffs on European goods, which poses a significant challenge for the EU, especially for major economies like Germany that rely heavily on exports to the US [7][8] - Ongoing trade negotiations between the EU and the US are critical, with tariffs currently around 10% and potential agreements expected to impact economic relations [8][10] Group 3 - The EU faces a trade deficit with China, which has led to calls for greater market access for European companies in China [11][12] - Despite complaints from European businesses, the profitability of the Chinese market remains a key factor for continued engagement, although recent trends show declining profits [12][13] - The automotive industry, particularly in the context of electric vehicles, is a focal point for EU-China cooperation, with both sides seeking to balance competition and collaboration [13][15] Group 4 - China holds a dominant position in the rare earths market, which is critical for various industries in Europe, leading to a desire for stable trade relations [16][18] - The discussions around semiconductor technology and artificial intelligence are also pivotal, as both regions seek to enhance cooperation in these strategic sectors [16][18] - The upcoming EU-China economic summit is anticipated to address these issues, although achieving comprehensive agreements remains challenging [18][19] Group 5 - The complexity of the EU's governance structure poses challenges for its foreign policy, particularly in negotiations with external partners like the US and China [24][25] - The EU's internal dynamics, including differing national interests, complicate its ability to present a unified front in international trade and diplomacy [25][30] - The reliance on the US for security and defense continues to shape Europe's strategic decisions, despite aspirations for greater autonomy [30][31]

Price Trends - June CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a return to positive growth after four months of negative figures[7] - June PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline continuing to expand compared to the previous month[7] - Core CPI rose to 0.7% year-on-year, the highest in nearly 14 months, supported by the "trade-in" policy[14] Consumer Behavior - The "trade-in" subsidy policy has been a significant factor in supporting durable goods prices, leading to a slight recovery in core CPI[7] - Food prices saw a marginal improvement, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 0.7% month-on-month, better than seasonal trends[12] - Service-related prices remained weak, indicating limited progress in the recovery of household balance sheets[7] Economic Risks - The ongoing uncertainty in the real estate market poses risks to economic stability[3] - External pressures, including tariff issues and uncertain foreign demand, continue to affect the economy[30] - The potential overspending of future consumption demand due to the "trade-in" policy could lead to economic challenges[30]

不得 宏观研究 证券研究报 【宏观快评】6月通胀数据点评 外信! 宏观快评 2025年07月10日 从实际库存角度观察 PPI 事 项 6月,CPI 同比上涨 0.1%,预期持平,前值下降 0.1%;核心 CPI 同比上涨 0.7%, 前值上涨 0.6%。PPI 同比下降 3.6%,预期下降 3.2%,前值下降 3.3%。 主要观点 6月物价数据简评:四个要点 ogo 1、预计二季度 GDP 平减指数同比约-0.9%,一季度为-0.8%。二季度 CPI 同 比-0.03%,较一季度的-0.1%略有好转;不过,PPI同比-3.2%,较一季度的-2.3% 有所回落,商品房售价同比也较一季度有所下行。预计二季度名义 GDP 增速 约 4.4%,一季度为 4.6%。 2、本月 PPI 低于预期,也弱于 PMI 价格和高频价格的指引,可能有两个因 素:第一,高频的原材料价格向 PPI 相关行业的传导需要时间,并且若在需求 偏弱背景下,企业的实际交易价格可能低于市场报价。第二,PMI 价格中并未 包含采矿和公用事业,而"绿电增加"导致本月电热供应 PPI 环比跌 0.9%。 3、CPI 环比-0.1%,重点关注:1)毕业 ...

PPI环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相同。董莉娟表示，影响PPI环比下降的主要原因，一是国内部分原材料 制造业价格季节性下行，二是绿电增加带动能源价格下降，三是一些出口占比较高的行业价格承压。 受环比下降及对比基数变动影响，PPI同比降幅比上月扩大0.3个百分点，但随着各项宏观政策加力实 施，部分行业供需关系有所改善，价格呈企稳回升态势。全国统一大市场建设纵深推进，带动部分行业 价格同比降幅收窄。6月份，汽柴油车整车制造、新能源车整车制造价格环比分别上涨0.5%和0.3%，同 比降幅比上月分别收窄1.9个和0.4个百分点。提振消费相关政策加力扩围，带动部分生活资料价格同比 回升。此外，新动能积聚，带动部分高技术行业价格同比上涨。 （文章来源：人民日报） 记者从国家统计局获悉：今年6月份，扩内需、促消费政策持续显效，居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比 由上月下降转为上涨0.1%；扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比继续回升，上涨0.7%。工业生产者出厂 价格指数（PPI）环比下降0.4%，同比下降3.6%。 CPI同比上涨0.1%，为连续下降4个月后转涨。国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟分析，这主要受工 业消费品价格有 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In June, China's CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, up by 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[1] - The food item CPI recorded a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, while non-food items increased by 0.1%, both showing a 0.1 percentage point rise from prior values[2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose to 0.7%, also an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI in June decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, a further decline of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month[14] - The PPI's month-on-month change was a decrease of 0.4%, consistent with the prior value[14] - Factors contributing to PPI pressure include falling raw material prices, increased green electricity leading to lower energy prices, and tariffs affecting global trade[16] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The divergence in CPI and PPI trends suggests a need for stimulus policies to boost domestic demand and sustain inflation recovery[4] - The upcoming Politburo meeting in Q3 may present an opportunity for new policies, though the impact is expected to be limited[4] - CPI is projected to maintain positive growth in Q3, while the likelihood of PPI turning positive within the year remains low[4] Group 4: Risk Factors - Risks include weaker-than-expected consumer recovery, potential economic recession, and unforeseen impacts from tariffs on related industries[19]

Group 1 - In June, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with some industries showing signs of price stabilization and recovery [1] - The main reason for the month-on-month decline in PPI was the seasonal decrease in prices of certain raw material manufacturing industries, influenced by high temperatures and increased rainfall affecting construction progress in real estate and infrastructure projects [1] - The increase in green energy production contributed to a decrease in energy prices, with the electricity and heat production and supply industry seeing a month-on-month price drop of 0.9% [1] Group 2 - The year-on-year decline in PPI expanded by 0.3 percentage points to 3.6% in June, influenced by both month-on-month declines and changes in comparison bases [1] - The construction of a unified national market has led to a narrowing of year-on-year price declines in certain industries, with prices for gasoline and diesel vehicle manufacturing and new energy vehicle manufacturing increasing by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively [2] - Policies aimed at boosting consumption have led to a year-on-year increase in prices of daily necessities, with general daily goods and clothing prices rising by 0.8% and 0.1% respectively in June [2]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In June 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a shift from a decline that lasted for four consecutive months [3][9] - The rise in CPI was primarily influenced by the recovery in industrial consumer goods prices, with the year-on-year decline narrowing from 1.0% to 0.5% [3][4] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest increase in nearly 14 months [3][4] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with the decline remaining consistent with the previous month [6][7] - The year-on-year decline in PPI expanded by 0.3 percentage points, influenced by seasonal price decreases in raw material manufacturing and pressures in export-oriented industries [6][7] - Some industries showed signs of price stabilization and recovery, particularly in sectors benefiting from domestic market improvements and consumption policies [7][6] Group 3: Price Changes by Category - Food prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with notable declines in pork prices by 8.5% and egg prices by 7.7% [9][17] - Non-food prices increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with service prices rising by 0.5% [9][10] - Among various categories, prices for durable goods and entertainment-related items showed increases, reflecting ongoing consumer demand [7][12]

Core Viewpoint - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June turned from a decline to an increase of 0.1% year-on-year, ending four months of negative growth, influenced by the recovery of industrial product prices [3][4]. CPI Analysis - The CPI's year-on-year increase was primarily driven by a reduction in the decline of industrial consumer goods prices, which narrowed from 1.0% to 0.5% [4]. - Energy prices saw a reduced decline of 1.0 percentage points, contributing to a lesser downward impact on the CPI [4]. - Gold and platinum jewelry prices increased significantly, by 39.2% and 15.9% respectively, collectively contributing approximately 0.21 percentage points to the CPI increase [4]. - Food prices experienced a slight narrowing in their decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, and beef prices turning to an increase of 2.7% after 28 months of decline [4]. PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in June decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, maintaining the same decline rate as the previous month [7]. - The PPI's year-on-year decline expanded by 0.3 percentage points, influenced by seasonal price decreases in raw materials and increased green energy leading to lower energy prices [7][8]. - The construction sector faced challenges due to weather conditions, impacting the prices of black metal and non-metal mineral products, which fell by 1.8% and 1.4% respectively [8]. - Export-oriented industries are under pressure, with prices in the computer and communication equipment manufacturing sector declining by 0.4% [8]. Future Outlook - The future trajectory of industrial product prices will largely depend on the effectiveness of counter-cyclical adjustment policies, particularly those supporting the real estate sector [9]. - The government aims to promote a reasonable recovery in price levels, which will facilitate fiscal measures to boost consumption and investment [10].

2025.07. 04 本文字数：1315，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 肖逸思 当地时间7月3日，争议不断的"大而美"法案得到了美国国会众议院的表决通过。白宫称，美国总统 特朗普定于4日即美国"独立日"当天签署该法案，并使其生效。 随着"大而美"法案的即将签署，特斯拉CEO马斯克和特朗普的矛盾也再度升级。矛盾的中心在于该 法案将提前终止美国电动汽车税收抵免，这意味着美国消费者购买或租赁新电动汽车的7500美元税 收抵免以及二手电动汽车4000美元的税收抵免都将于今年9月30日结束。 政策支持力度的减弱可能会威胁到美国电动汽车制造业的增长。作为美国新能源汽车市场的"头把交 椅"，特斯拉无疑受打击程度最重。此前，多位华尔街分析师认为，美国取消电动车税收抵免将直接 造成特斯拉销量和利润下滑。摩根大通分析师Ryan Brinkman称，税收抵免的取消将给特斯拉带来 12亿美元利润损失风险。 在销量上，特斯拉今年已经开始了下滑态势。当地时间7月2日，特斯拉发布的最新数据显示，今年 二季度，特斯拉全球交付量为38.41万辆，较去年同期下降约13.5%。这也是特斯拉连续两个季度出 现交付量同比下滑的情况。今年一 ...