晨会纪要 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 11 月 27 日 | 联系人：王竣冬 | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | --- | --- | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | | [Table_QuotePic] | 中泰微投研小程序 | | [Table_Report] | 中泰期货公众号 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Finance] 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 1. 商务部部长王文涛与欧盟委员会贸易和经济安全委员谢夫乔维奇举行视频会谈，就安世半导体等 经贸问题深入交换意见。双方一致同意，企业是解决安世半导体问题的主体，将共同敦促安世荷兰 与安世中国尽快开展建设性沟通，找到长期解决方案，尽快恢复全球半导体产供链的畅通与稳定。 双方还就中欧出口管制等问题交换了意见。 2. 万科遭遇股债"双杀"行情。周三，万科多只境内债券盘中大跌，"22 万科 02"一度跌超 35% ...

黑色建材日报 2025-11-27 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3099 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 7 元/吨（-0.22%）。当日注册仓单 37919 吨, 环比减少 7773 吨。主力合约持仓量为 120.07 万手，环比减少 100338 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3210 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3250 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3304 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 5 元/吨（-0.15%）。 当日注册仓单 113732 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 93 ...

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万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3106 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 17 元/吨（0.550%）。当日注册仓单 45692 吨, 环比增加 2134 吨。主力合约持仓量为 130.1038 万手，环比减少 131667 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津 汇总价格为 3220 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3250 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主 力合约收盘价为 3309 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 14 元/吨（0.424%）。 当日注册仓单 113732 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 99.9741 万手，环比减少 82348 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3320 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 黑色建材日报 2025-11-26 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-11-26 反弹动能减弱，关注宏观扰动 钢材基本⾯继续改善，同时12⽉中央经济⼯作会议即将召开，海外 仍有降息预期，中美元⾸通话释放信号偏积极，宏观环境偏暖，但淡 季逐步深⼊，基本⾯亮点有限，盘⾯反弹动能减弱。短期铁⽔预计仍 有⽀撑，铁矿补库需求仍有释放预期，铁矿价格表现偏强。焦煤低产 量和低库存状况有望保持⾄年底，进⼝虽持⾼位，但焦煤基本⾯暂未 出现明显弱化，近⽉合约仍受到交割影响，远⽉合约价格⽀撑作⽤仍 较强。玻璃供应仍有扰动预期，但⾼库存始终压制价格。纯碱⾏业价 格临近成本，底部⽀撑较为明显，但供需格局过剩始终压制价格上 ⾏。 钢材基本面继续改善，同时12月中央经济工作会议即将召开，海外仍 有降息预期，中美元首通话释放信号偏积极，宏观环境偏暖，但淡季 逐步深入，基本面亮点有限，盘面反弹动能减弱。短期铁水预计仍有 支撑，铁矿补库需求仍有释放预期，铁矿价格表现偏强。焦煤低产量 和低库存状况有望保持至年底，进口虽持高位，但焦煤基本面暂未出 现明显弱化，近月合约仍受到交割影响，远月合约价格支撑作用仍较 强。玻璃供应仍有扰动 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 报告摘要 流动性：10月BCI中小企业融资环境指数值为52.41，环比+10.15% （1）BCI中小企业融资环境指数2025年10月值为52.41，环比上月+10.15%；（2）M1和M2增速差与上证 指数存在较强的正向相关性：M1和M2增速差在2025年10月为-2.0个百分点，环比-0.80个百分点；（3）本 周伦敦金现价格为4064美元/盎司。 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 基建和地产链条：水泥、沥青开工率降至5年同期最低水平 （1）本周价格变动：螺纹+1.89%、水泥价格指数-0.47%、橡胶+0.34%、焦炭+3.29%、焦煤-0.95%、铁矿 +1.40%；（2）本周全国高炉产能利用率、水泥、沥青开工率环比分别-0.22pct、-10.80pct、-8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials industry is expected to see structural opportunities by 2026, driven by policies and market conditions, with three main growth engines: new energy, electronics, and computing power [1] Summary by Sections 2025 Review - The construction materials index and fundamentals showed signs of recovery, with the SW construction materials index increasing by 21.37% from the beginning of the year to November 12, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.30 percentage points [2] - Sub-industry performance was mixed, with the fiberglass manufacturing sector leading gains due to the AI computing power boom [2] - Despite a slight revenue decline of 5.74% year-on-year, the industry saw a significant profit improvement, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 21.46% [2] 2026 Outlook - Structural investment opportunities in the construction materials industry are expected to emerge due to intensified policy regulation and sustained high demand in emerging sectors [3] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to reshape the competitive landscape in traditional materials like cement and glass, improving supply-demand dynamics and gradually restoring industry profitability [3] - The growth of new energy, electronics, and computing sectors will benefit leading companies with technological barriers and production capabilities, particularly in high-performance fiberglass [3] - The demand for renovation and urban renewal in the real estate sector will favor consumer building material leaders with strong channel layouts, brands, and product quality [3] Sub-industry Outlook - **Cement**: Supply regulation effects are expected to improve profitability, with major projects supporting future demand and leading companies expanding into overseas markets [4] - **Fiberglass**: Continued high demand from the wind power and electric vehicle sectors is expected to support sales, with AI computing needs driving fiberglass demand [4] - **Consumer Building Materials**: Urban renewal is likely to boost demand for renovation and repair, while consumption upgrades will increase the demand for high-quality green materials [4] - **Glass**: Prices remain under pressure, but the "anti-involution" policy may help ease supply-demand imbalances [4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on three investment themes: 1. Traditional building materials benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, with recommended companies including Huaxin Cement, Shangfeng Cement, and Conch Cement [4] 2. Emerging sectors with sustained high demand, recommending companies like China Jushi and China National Building Material [4] 3. Consumer building material leaders with strong retail channel layouts, recommending companies such as Oriental Yuhong, Beixin Building Materials, Weixing New Materials, Sankeshu, and Tubao [4]

【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属上涨。随着多位美联储官员表态主张12月降息，利率市场隐含降息概率升至80%。 俄乌 相关方围绕美方提出的和平计划展开讨论和博弈。市场不确定性依然较强,贵金属高位震荡等待方 向性突破。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【铜】 综合晨报 国投期货研究院 隔夜铜价震荡，伦铜尾盘随贵金属走高，另一联储官员表达侧重就业的降息态度，两市铜价暂时在 MA40日均线存在韧性支撑。国内铜精矿加工费长单谈判备受关注。交割换月后,沪粤延续升水,分 别在85、125元，倾向国内现货端有一定看涨情绪，货源较集中。SMM社库减少1.39万吨在18.06万 吨。前期少量高位空单被动止盈位置从8.7万下调到8.65万。 【铝】 (原油) 隔夜国际油价反弹,布伦特01合约涨1.41%。俄乌地缘风险再次陷入制裁现实与和谈预期的纠葛, 一方面上周五美国对俄两油制裁正式生效,印度炼厂进一步规避俄油采购的行为已经发生,另一方 面本周四最后期限前美鸟就和平计划的谈判仍有不确定性。供需方面四季度、明年一季度市场仍面 临更大的累库预期,油价下行驱动仍在,本周重点关注俄乌和平方案谈判进展及委内地缘风险的犹 动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming launch of platinum and palladium futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, emphasizing the importance of understanding the supply-demand dynamics and historical price drivers in the platinum and palladium markets [5][6]. Group 1: Research Framework - The core framework for platinum and palladium research is based on supply-demand relationships, which are influenced by both micro-level mining costs and macroeconomic factors [6][24]. - Supply-demand balance determines the price direction of platinum and palladium, with mining supply primarily dominated by South Africa, accounting for over 70% of global supply [9][14]. - The automotive industry is the main demand driver for platinum and palladium, with platinum demand in the automotive sector projected to account for 39.85% of total platinum demand in 2024 [9][14]. Group 2: Price Influencing Factors - Mining costs provide short-term and long-term price support, with total cash costs (TCC) and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) being critical metrics for mining operations [17][24]. - The profitability of mining companies affects long-term capital expenditures, which in turn influences supply and price levels [18][19]. - Macroeconomic fluctuations and event shocks significantly impact supply-demand dynamics, thereby affecting platinum and palladium prices [22][43]. Group 3: Historical Price Trends - Historical price trends from 2000 to present are categorized into five periods, each driven by different core factors, including industrial demand and macroeconomic changes [44][45]. - The period from 2000 to 2008 saw strong industrial demand, particularly from the automotive sector, leading to significant price increases for platinum [45][48]. - The 2009 to 2015 period was characterized by macroeconomic uncertainty and supply disruptions, resulting in fluctuating prices for both platinum and palladium [49][53]. - From 2016 to 2018, structural changes in demand, particularly due to the rise of electric vehicles, negatively impacted platinum prices [54][56]. - The period from 2019 to 2022 was marked by increased volatility in palladium prices, driven by regulatory changes and supply chain disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic [59][60]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The outlook for platinum and palladium prices will be influenced by ongoing macroeconomic conditions, including inflation and interest rate expectations, as well as shifts in automotive demand due to electric vehicle adoption [62][63]. - The potential for a new round of price increases is anticipated as speculative demand rises, particularly in response to changes in the U.S. dollar and broader economic conditions [62][63].

智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，目前建材板块盈利、估值、持仓均在底部，但部分优质龙头 已率先走出底部，政策预期下，消费建材龙头有望复苏。建材板块基本面虽仍在左侧，但经历了四年的 行业下行期，受益于行业供给出清与企业收入结构(区域、渠道、产品)的转型与升级，部分优秀龙头公 司在经营层面已经逐步企稳(收入增速趋势向好、利润率同比向上)，剩者(胜者)为王的模型逐渐清晰， 并且考虑新的增长曲线，优质龙头未来机会还很大。同时板块持仓和估值仍历史低位，对地产景气和短 期基本面的悲观预期或已持续消化。 广发证券主要观点如下： 消费建材：二手房高景气叠加补贴政策，零售建材景气率先恢复，龙头公司经营韧性强 玻璃：浮法玻璃价格走弱;光伏玻璃部分成交重心松动 据卓创资讯，截至2025年11月20日，国内浮法玻璃均价1154元/吨，环比-2.8%，同比去年-20.6%。库存 天数30.36天，较上周四库存增加0.48天。2.0mm镀膜面板主流订单价格13元/平方米左右，环比持平， 较上周暂无变动，样本库存天数约28.13天，环比增加9.76%。当前玻璃龙头估值偏低，关注旗滨集团、 信义光能、福莱特(A)、福莱特玻璃(H)、信 ...