黑色产业链日报 2026/03/02 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑材料 建筑材料行业跟踪周报 继续关注涨价品种 2026 年 03 月 02 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 黄诗涛 执业证书：S0600521120004 huangshitao@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石峰源 执业证书：S0600521120001 shify@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -8% -2% 4% 10% 16% 22% 28% 34% 40% 46% 52% 2025/3/3 2025/7/1 2025/10/29 2026/2/26 建筑材料 沪深300 相关研究 《海外模型大厂融资落地，算力链条 迎来新动力》 2026-02-24 《地产链有望继续震荡向上》 2026-02-08 东吴证券研究所 1 / 19 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周（2026.2.21–2026.2.27，下同）：本周建筑材料板块（SW）涨跌幅 4.42%，同期沪深 300、万得全 A 指数涨跌幅分别为 1.08%、2.75%，超 额收益分别为 3.34%、1.67%。 ◼ 大宗建材基本面与 ...

宏 2026 年 3 月 2 日 证 券 研 究 报 告 中国宏观周报（2026 年 2 月第 4 周） 部分工业品生产恢复 证券分析师 平安观点： 宏 观 周 报 观 报 告 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 从高频数据观察，春节假期结束后，本周部分工业品生产恢复，工业品价 格指数也有提升。年初以来新房销售温和恢复，二手房挂牌价逐步止跌； 同时，外贸港口吞吐量及韩国出口数据表现亮眼，体现外需韧性增强。 1. 工业：部分工业品春节后生产恢复。1）原材料方面，本周日均铁水产量、 浮法玻璃开工率、部分化工品开工率，以及主要钢材品种表观需求环比提 升；水泥熟料产能利用率、石油沥青开工率环比回落。2）中下游方面，本 周纺织聚酯开工率环比提升，织造业开工率季节性走弱；汽车半钢胎开工 率、全钢胎开工率环比反弹。 2. 地产：新房销售温和修复。1）销售方面，年初以来（截至 2 月 27 日）， 30 大中城市新房销售面积同比-24.6%，较去年 ...

招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周五夜盘贵金属走强，以伦敦金计价的国际金价涨 1.8%至 5277 美元/盎司，以伦敦银计价的国际 银价涨 6.28%至 93.82 美元/盎司。 基本面：周末美以突然对伊朗动武，哈梅内伊遇袭身亡，引发伊朗反击，中东局势趋紧，市场避险情绪急升。 美 PPI 超预期增长，美债价格加速上涨，十年期美债收益率下破 4.0%、创四个月新低；美元指数短线转涨并 刷新日高；美国不考虑释放战略油储应对袭伊或推升油价；OPEC+4 月小幅增产 20.6 万桶/日。国内黄金 ETF 小幅流入 1.3 吨；COMEX 黄金库存为 1036.3 吨，-5.2 吨；上期所黄金库存为 105.1 吨，维持不变，SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓为 1101.3 吨，+3.4 吨，；伦敦黄金库存 1 月底 9155.8 吨，12 月底为 9103 吨；COMEX 白银 库存为 11206.3 吨，-9.5 吨；上期所白银库存为 306.6 吨，-39.8 吨；iShares 白银 ETF 持仓为 15992.4 吨， -104.3 吨；金交所白银上周库存 450 吨，-43 吨；伦敦 1 月末白银库存从 278 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the electronic inflation chain and oil chain sectors, indicating potential price increases and strong demand in various materials [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The electronic inflation chain is expected to see price increases in early March due to strong downstream demand from AI materials and new product launches, with a successful price transmission anticipated [1]. - The oil chain is impacted by rising oil prices, leading to cost increases for products like asphalt, with companies adjusting prices accordingly [2]. - Companies like Keda, Huaxin, and Leshushi are highlighted for their expansion into international markets, particularly in Africa and South America, indicating a strategic focus on local manufacturing and job creation [3]. Summary by Sections Electronic Inflation Chain - Strong demand for AI materials is driving price increases in electronic fabrics and copper foil, with expectations for smooth price transmission in March [1]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of AI displacing traditional production capacities in various sectors, including storage and electronic fabrics [1]. Oil Chain - The report notes that the cost of asphalt has risen from 3,000 RMB/t to 3,350 RMB/t, prompting companies to increase prices by 5%-10% for related products [2]. - The report highlights the potential for coal chemical alternatives to gain traction as oil prices rise, suggesting increased capital expenditure in this area [2]. International Expansion - Keda's establishment of a glass factory in Ghana is noted as a significant development, with expectations for local job creation and reduced costs for construction and automotive needs [3]. - Leshushi's inclusion in the Hang Seng Composite Index is also highlighted, indicating its growing market presence and liquidity [3]. Market Performance - The report provides insights into the performance of various materials, with cement prices averaging 339 RMB/ton, down 52 RMB/ton year-on-year, and glass prices showing a slight increase [4][15]. - The overall building materials index has shown a positive performance, with specific sectors like glass manufacturing and fiberglass seeing notable gains [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the construction materials sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the real estate sector, particularly in Shanghai, due to policy relaxations that are expected to boost the construction materials chain [6][7]. - It emphasizes the potential for a "small spring" in the market as downstream demand gradually recovers, supported by various government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [6][7]. - The report identifies key companies that are likely to benefit from this recovery, including three trees and rabbit baby, while also suggesting to monitor other firms like Han Gao Group and Beixin Building Materials [6][7]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The construction materials sector has seen a 3.3% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.2 percentage points [15]. - Year-to-date, the sector has risen by 12.2%, exceeding the CSI 300 index by approximately 10.5 percentage points [15]. Cement Sector - Demand has not fully recovered post-holiday, with an average shipment rate of about 10% in key regions [30]. - The average price of cement is approximately 344 RMB per ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 2.6 RMB per ton compared to the previous week [22][24]. - Recommendations include Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, with a focus on the recovery of downstream projects [30]. Glass Sector - The glass industry is experiencing significant inventory accumulation, with a total of 67.28 million heavy boxes, a 30.3% increase from the previous week [43]. - The average price of float glass has risen to 1,165 RMB per ton, with an average profit margin of -49 RMB per ton [32]. - Companies to watch include Qibin Group and Xinyi Glass, as the market anticipates a stabilization in prices [43]. Fiberglass Sector - The report notes expectations for price increases in both coarse and fine yarns as downstream demand begins to recover [44]. - The average price for fiberglass coarse yarn remains stable at 3,500 RMB per ton, with potential upward pressure due to cost increases [44]. - Key players in this sector include China Jushi, with recommendations to monitor International Composite Materials and Changhai Co., Ltd. [6][7]. Carbon Fiber Sector - Carbon fiber prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with the rapid development of commercial aerospace potentially driving new demand [6]. - Companies to consider include Zhongfu Shenying and Guangwei Composites, as the sector looks to capitalize on emerging opportunities [6].

2026 年 03 月 01 日 【投资要点】 挖掘价值 投资成长 强于大市（维持） 行 业 研 究 / 建 筑 材 料 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 建筑材料行业周报 节后复工数据农历同比改善，上海地产 政策放松助力地产链回暖 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：王翩翩 证书编号：S1160524060001 证券分析师：郁晾 证书编号：S1160524100004 证券分析师：闫广 证书编号：S1160526010004 联系人：陈怡洁 相对指数表现 -10% 4% 18% 32% 46% 60% 2025/3 2025/8 2026/2 建筑材料 沪深300 相关研究 《关注节后下游复工节奏，期待小阳春》 2026.02.23 《7628 电子布再提价推升业绩弹性，消费 建材小阳春可期》 2026.02.08 《拥抱景气周期，聚焦涨价链条》 2026.02.01 《新一轮城市更新开启，关注消费建材底 部向上的弹性》 2026.01.25 《政策组合拳助力"开门红"， 看好玻纤 景气度向上》 2026.01.18 板块行情回顾：本周建材板块上涨 3.3%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.2pct。 分 子 板 块 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth week of February, the post - Spring Festival resumption of work was not weak. The construction site resumption rate and labor attendance rate were higher than those in the same lunar period of 2025, likely due to the approaching end - of - quarter month after the Spring Festival [5][30]. - In terms of inflation, food prices declined after the Spring Festival. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of vegetable basket products decreased by 1.72% and 1.96% respectively [5][10]. - Regarding exports, the freight volume weakened significantly during the holiday week, but the year - on - year figures for January - February were high, and export readings were expected to be good [5][11]. - For investment, the downstream construction site resumption rate was 1 - 2 percentage points higher than the same lunar period. It was expected that the resumption of work would accelerate further by early March, while the demand for investment products such as cement and rebar had not significantly recovered, mainly characterized by accelerated inventory accumulation [5][30]. - In the real estate sector, the post - holiday transactions of new and second - hand houses accelerated. Attention should be paid to the boosting effect of Shanghai's "Seven Measures" on the "Little Spring" market in March [5][30]. - For the bond market, the short - term repair slope of investment resumption and transaction rhythm needed to be closely monitored. The resumption of work was expected to accelerate further by early March, and the "Seven Measures" might lead to a concentrated release of second - hand housing transaction demand. The policy expectations of the Two Sessions were likely to be favorable to the bond market [5][31]. 3. Summary according to the Directory (1) Inflation - related: Food prices fell after the Spring Festival - The average wholesale price of pork in the country decreased by 1.39% compared with the week before the holiday, and the price of vegetables decreased by 2.9% compared with before the holiday. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of vegetable basket products decreased by 1.72% and 1.96% respectively [10]. (2) Import and export - related: Export volume in February decreased slightly month - on - month but remained high year - on - year - The CCFI index decreased by 4.0% month - on - month, while the SCFI index increased by 6.5%. During the Spring Festival holiday week from February 16th to 20th, the port container throughput and cargo throughput decreased by 13.6% and 21.8% respectively month - on - month, and 5.5% and 23.6% respectively year - on - year. The monthly average in February increased by 19.3% and 15.1% respectively year - on - year [11]. - The BDI index increased by 2.9% month - on - month, and the CDFI index increased by about 7.5% compared with before the holiday [11]. (3) Industry - related: Industrial production resumed work slightly slowly - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 1.9% week - on - week. Industrial demand recovered, downstream replenishment willingness increased, and supply was tight, pushing up coal prices [16]. - The spot price of rebar remained stable, and the social inventory of rebar increased by 14.7% week - on - week, with the social inventory of major steel products increasing by 26.3% [16]. - The asphalt plant operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 21.4% compared with the week before the holiday, and the resumption of work was slow after the holiday [2][16]. - The average price of copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals market increased by 0.6% week - on - week. The glass futures price decreased compared with before the holiday, and inventory accumulation pressure still existed [18]. (4) Investment - related: Second - hand housing transactions increased after the Spring Festival - The cement price index decreased by 0.4% compared with before the holiday. As of February 25th, the national construction site resumption rate was 8.9%, 1.5 percentage points higher than the same lunar period, and the labor attendance rate was 15.5%, 3.7 percentage points higher than the same lunar period [20]. - The transaction area of new houses in 30 cities increased by 25.8% week - on - week. As of February 27th, the 7 - day rolling sum of new house transaction area in 30 cities was 769,600 square meters, a year - on - year increase of 48.1% [23]. - The transaction area of second - hand houses in 17 cities increased by 107.4% week - on - week. As of February 27th, the 7 - day rolling sum of second - hand housing transactions was 61,300 square meters, a year - on - year increase of 31.5% [23]. (5) Consumption: Post - holiday travel enthusiasm continued to rise, and international oil prices rose slightly - Affected by the resumption of work, the subway passenger volume in 29 cities increased by 24.8% week - on - week. As of February 27th, the travel volume increased by 28.9% year - on - year according to the Baidu Migration Index [4][25]. - As of February 27th, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.0% and 0.8% respectively compared with last Friday, and the upward trend continued [4][29].

黑色产业链日报 2026/02/27 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, with the warming of the macro - sentiment, it is recommended to be cautious about short - selling soda ash. In the medium - to - long term, the price of soda ash may rise first and then fall, and the monthly strategy suggests a bullish view. For glass, due to the weak fundamentals, it is advisable to short on rallies or sell call options monthly. However, if the macro - sentiment is good, the price may remain stable. It is also recommended to go long on soda ash and short on glass for spread trading [2][3][5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part One: Preface - In February, the non - ferrous and precious metal sectors experienced a rapid decline and slow recovery, releasing market risks and repairing the mis - priced valuations. The soda ash, glass, and black sectors were mainly in a downward trend before the Spring Festival and had a strong bullish sentiment after the festival. The market anticipates a general rise in commodity prices in spring, mainly due to the macro - sentiment repair brought by the Two Sessions and inflation logic. The uncertainty of US tariffs still exists, but the tariff peak may have passed. Attention should be paid to the statements on carbon emissions in the Two Sessions, as environmental protection may be an important measure to promote anti - involution this year. The release of the "Shanghai Seven - Point Notice" triggered discussions on the bottom - out rebound of the real estate market, but it has little short - term impact on the overall demand recovery in the real estate sector [2]. Part Two: Soda Ash Fundamental Analysis 1. Market Review - In February, the futures price of the main soda ash contract declined. The SA05 contract fluctuated between 1146 - 1235 yuan/ton, with increased volatility and a lower trading range. The SA2605 - 09 spread was stable, ending at - 62 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly change of - 2 yuan/ton. The basis of SA05 was - 19 yuan/ton, with a monthly change of + 24 yuan/ton. The FG05 - SA05 spread first rose and then fell, ending at - 132 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly change of + 19 yuan/ton. Spot prices of soda ash manufacturers were stable to slightly weak [7]. 2. Risk Release in Non - ferrous Metals and Approaching Two Sessions - In February, the non - ferrous and precious metal sectors declined to release risks, with silver leading the decline with a monthly drop of 22%. The non - ferrous and precious metal sectors rebounded after hitting the bottom. By the end of the month, the non - ferrous sector had a decline of 7.8%, and the precious metal sector had a decline of 18.4%. The market risk was quickly released, and the mis - priced valuations were repaired. The Two Sessions in March will focus on new - quality productivity, stable growth, expanding domestic demand, industrial upgrading, security development, and people's livelihood security. Attention should be paid to the statements on carbon emissions, and environmental protection may be an important measure to promote anti - involution. The release of the "Shanghai Seven - Point Notice" triggered discussions on the bottom - out rebound of the real estate market, but it has little short - term impact on the overall demand recovery in the real estate sector. From April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for 249 photovoltaic and chemical products will be cancelled. In the United States, the mid - term elections will be held in November 2026, and Trump's overall support rate has dropped to about 38% [10][11]. 3. Soda Ash Production at a Historical High and Gradually Accumulating Inventory Pressure - In February, the new production capacity of soda ash was gradually increased, with a monthly output of about 3.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8%. Some soda ash enterprises had maintenance or shutdowns, while some increased production. Overall, there were few maintenance activities, and the release of new production capacity led to an increase in comprehensive supply. In March, Zhongyan Kunshan has a maintenance plan, and other enterprises have no clear maintenance plans yet. The concentrated increase in new production capacity will gradually put pressure on the soda ash supply. Before discussing the elimination of high - cost production capacity, more attention should be paid to the fluctuations in the operating rate of soda ash enterprises, which is the core observation indicator for the marginal change in the supply - demand relationship [15]. 4. Resilient Demand for Light and Heavy Soda Ash and Lower - than - Expected Inventory Accumulation - During the Spring Festival, the inventory of soda ash increased by 306,400 tons, a rise of 19.29%. By the end of the month, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8944 million tons. The inventory accumulation rate during the Spring Festival was lower than market expectations, indicating resilient demand. In March, with the warming of the macro - sentiment, it is recommended to be cautious about short - selling. However, in the medium - to - long term, the price may rise first and then fall, and the monthly strategy suggests a bullish view. In February, the average weekly apparent demand for soda ash was about 669,000 tons, equivalent to an average daily apparent demand of about 96,000 tons, a 7.7% decrease compared to the previous month. Among them, the average weekly apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 362,000 tons, a decrease of about 41,000 tons compared to the previous month. The apparent demand for light soda ash was 307,000 tons, a decrease of about 19,000 tons compared to the previous month [20]. 5. Pressure on Cost Transmission in Photovoltaic Glass and Increasing Downward Pressure on Post - Festival Demand - As of the end of February, the daily melting capacity of photovoltaic glass was 88,560 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons compared to the beginning of the month. It is expected that the global production of downstream components in March will be about 36GW, and the domestic production will be about 28GW. The cancellation of the 9% VAT export tax rebate for core photovoltaic products such as silicon wafers and components from April 1, 2026, led to increased procurement of photovoltaic glass by downstream component enterprises in advance. However, after the industry dividend fades in late March, it is still uncertain whether domestic demand in April can support the high - production of upstream enterprises. On the supply side, most kilns are operating normally, but enterprises are in a state of continuous loss. On the demand side, although supported by export orders, the production of components in February was weak, and the supply - demand gap in the industry remained high. After the Spring Festival, the inventory pressure increased rapidly [25][26][27]. 6. Resilient and Unexpected Demand for Light Soda Ash - As the price of soda ash decreases, its advantage as a basic chemical product becomes prominent. The decentralized downstream demand brings resilience. In 2025, the apparent demand for light soda ash increased unexpectedly, with the annual apparent demand reaching 16.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%, far exceeding the previous growth rate range of - 2.6% to 4.5%. The quantifiable part is mainly due to the rapid growth of lithium carbonate production. In 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 944,000 tons, and the production of lithium carbonate required about 1.89 million tons of light soda ash. In February, the monthly apparent demand for light soda ash was about 1.284 million tons [30]. 7. Exit of US Soda Ash Plants and Expected Increase in China's Export Share - As the price of soda ash falls, the export window opens. In 2025, the average monthly export of soda ash was over 180,000 tons, and it is expected that the high - level export of soda ash will continue in 2026. The top five trading partners are Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, South Korea, and Malaysia, accounting for 37% of the total export volume. China's main export regions are Jiangsu, Shandong, and Hebei, and the export volume from Qinghai and Inner Mongolia has increased significantly. The exit of a US soda ash manufacturer will increase China's export share in the overseas market, especially in Southeast Asia [35]. 8. Weak Raw Material Prices and Slight Decline in Cost Range - In February, the price of sea salt was stable, the price of anthracite coal increased slightly, the price of thermal coal fluctuated upwards, and the cost increased. The price of by - product ammonium chloride increased significantly. As of February 26, 2026, the theoretical profit of soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in China was - 90.15 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit (double - ton) of soda ash produced by the combined - soda process was - 1.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 95.38%. The price of thermal coal strengthened, the supply and demand of domestic thermal coal were both weak, and the market trading was light. The price of ammonium chloride increased, and the supply enterprises advanced production conservatively. The coke market price remained stable [40]. Part Three: Glass Fundamental Analysis 1. Market Review - In February, the main glass contract FG2605 weakened. The FG05 contract fluctuated between 1037 - 1120 yuan/ton, with a lower price range. The spread between the 05 and 09 contracts of glass narrowed, ending at - 97 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly change of + 11 yuan/ton. The basis between the main glass contract and the spot price in Shahe was - 40 yuan/ton, with a monthly change of + 10 yuan/ton. The spot prices of glass manufacturers in Hubei and Shahe remained basically unchanged [45]. 2. Slight Decrease in Float Glass Supply and Attention to Carbon Emission Statements in the Two Sessions - As of the end of the month, the daily melting capacity of float glass was 149,000 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons compared to the beginning of the month. There were 296 glass production lines in China (with a daily melting capacity of 199,500 tons) after excluding zombie production lines, of which 209 were in production and 87 were shut down for cold repair. Attention should be paid to the statements on carbon emissions in the Two Sessions. Environmental protection may be an important measure to promote anti - involution. It is expected that the glass supply in 2026 will decrease by 8.2% year - on - year to 52.93 million tons, equivalent to a daily melting capacity of 145,000 tons [47]. 3. Glass Demand May Be Weaker than Expected - In February, the average weekly apparent demand for glass was 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. After the Spring Festival, the domestic float glass market was quiet. Most downstream processing plants were shut down and planned to resume work after the Lantern Festival, resulting in weak overall demand. In terms of inventory structure, the glass inventory increased by 45% to 76 million heavy boxes in February, with significant inventory accumulation in North China and Central China. It is expected that the glass demand in 2026 will be 51.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.5%. The continued decline of the real estate market has a significant negative impact on glass demand, while the demand for home - decoration glass remains stable, and the demand for automotive glass shows resilience [52]. 4. Further Relaxation of Purchase Restrictions in Shanghai and Urban Renewal as the Future Focus - The release of the "Shanghai Seven - Point Notice" triggered discussions on the bottom - out rebound of the real estate market. The further relaxation of purchase restrictions in Shanghai will have a siphon effect on second - and third - tier cities, increasing the differentiation and having little short - term impact on the overall demand recovery in the real estate sector. The recovery of the real estate market will be slow and complex, and the completion data in 2026 is expected to hover at a low level. The future recovery will depend more on the long - term improvement of the real estate market, such as the continuous recovery of the sales market and the improvement of the self - financing ability of real estate enterprises [56]. 5. Decrease in Soda Ash Price and Increase in Glass Cost - As of February 26, 2026, according to the production cost calculation model of Longzhong Information, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 142.26 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 24.29 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was - 30.79 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was 43.93 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged month - on - month [60].