晨会纪要 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 11 月 27 日 | 联系人：王竣冬 | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | --- | --- | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | | [Table_QuotePic] | 中泰微投研小程序 | | [Table_Report] | 中泰期货公众号 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Finance] 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 1. 商务部部长王文涛与欧盟委员会贸易和经济安全委员谢夫乔维奇举行视频会谈，就安世半导体等 经贸问题深入交换意见。双方一致同意，企业是解决安世半导体问题的主体，将共同敦促安世荷兰 与安世中国尽快开展建设性沟通，找到长期解决方案，尽快恢复全球半导体产供链的畅通与稳定。 双方还就中欧出口管制等问题交换了意见。 2. 万科遭遇股债"双杀"行情。周三，万科多只境内债券盘中大跌，"22 万科 02"一度跌超 35% ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 壬泽辉 | Z0019938 | 2025年11月26日 | | | | | | | | | | | 田和 | 11月25日 | 11月24日 | 涨跌幅 | 狱跌 | | | | | | | | | 8510 | 8490 | 20 | 0.24% | 现价 | 江苏一级 | -0.29% | Y2601 | 8144 | 8168 | -24 | 期价 | | 墓差 | 13.66% | Y2601 | 366 | 322 | 44 | 01+280 | 01+270 | 10 | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏1月 | - | | 仓单 | 24625 | 24625 | 0.00% | 0 | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | 11月25日 | 11月24日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 8370 | 8430 | -0.71% | 广东 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期货多数上涨，新能源材料涨幅居前 ——中信期货晨报20251126 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | 板块 | 品种 | 现代 | | | 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 4473 | 0.85% | 101% | -3.42% | -3.14% | 14.08% | | | 上证50期货 | 2959.2 | 0.50% | Q 43% | -1 88% | -1 00% | 10.50% | | | 中证500期货 | 6900 | THOS | Task | -4 33 | -5.35% | 21.20% | | | 中证1000期货 | 7172 | 1 0 ...

首席点评： 企业信心不减 国务院新闻办公室将于 11月27日上午10时举行国务院政策例行吹风会，请工信部、国家发改委、商务部、文化和旅游 部、市场监管总局有关负责人介绍增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费政策措施有关情况，并答记者问。据商务 部，1-10月，我国全行业对外直接投资1443.4亿美元，同比增长6.2%；对外承包工程业务新签合同额2107亿美元, 同比 增长18.6%。今年以来A股累计回购金额已超1300亿元，创出历史第二高水平。回购显著提振了上市公司的股价表现， 年内实施回购且股价翻倍的公司超过百家。医药生物行业已回购金额居首，达到143.49亿元，电力设备、电子、家 电、机械设备等行业回购金额均超百亿元。 重点品种：股指、油脂、橡胶 股指：美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指继续反弹，通信和传媒板块领涨，国防军工和交通运输板块领跌，市 场成交额 1.83万亿元。资金方面，11月24日融资余额减少28.80亿元至24422.98亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自 立，预计科技板块是长期方向。11月以来"权重走强、成长走弱"主要是短线交易节奏、事件扰动与资金防御需求 共同作用的结果。若后续海外科技业绩落地、 ...

【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属上涨。随着多位美联储官员表态主张12月降息，利率市场隐含降息概率升至80%。 俄乌 相关方围绕美方提出的和平计划展开讨论和博弈。市场不确定性依然较强,贵金属高位震荡等待方 向性突破。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【铜】 综合晨报 国投期货研究院 隔夜铜价震荡，伦铜尾盘随贵金属走高，另一联储官员表达侧重就业的降息态度，两市铜价暂时在 MA40日均线存在韧性支撑。国内铜精矿加工费长单谈判备受关注。交割换月后,沪粤延续升水,分 别在85、125元，倾向国内现货端有一定看涨情绪，货源较集中。SMM社库减少1.39万吨在18.06万 吨。前期少量高位空单被动止盈位置从8.7万下调到8.65万。 【铝】 (原油) 隔夜国际油价反弹,布伦特01合约涨1.41%。俄乌地缘风险再次陷入制裁现实与和谈预期的纠葛, 一方面上周五美国对俄两油制裁正式生效,印度炼厂进一步规避俄油采购的行为已经发生,另一方 面本周四最后期限前美鸟就和平计划的谈判仍有不确定性。供需方面四季度、明年一季度市场仍面 临更大的累库预期,油价下行驱动仍在,本周重点关注俄乌和平方案谈判进展及委内地缘风险的犹 动。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is under pressure, with major stock indexes generally falling, and the market may experience an oversold rebound due to shrinking trading volume [19][20]. - The bond market shows a differentiated performance under the influence of various news, and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [23]. - In the agricultural products market, most varieties face supply - demand pressures and price fluctuations, such as protein meal under pressure and sugar prices showing a range - bound pattern [27][31]. - The black metal market has steel prices in a range - bound pattern, with potential for iron water reduction, and double - coking and iron ore prices showing weakness [54][57][60]. - The non - ferrous metal market has precious metals, copper, and other varieties in a state of shock, with different influencing factors for each [65][70]. - The energy and chemical market has products such as crude oil and asphalt in a state of shock, with different supply - demand situations for each [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market is under test, with major indexes and stock index futures falling. The market may have an oversold rebound, and trading strategies include going short first and then long, conducting IM\IC futures - spot arbitrage, and using a double - buy option strategy [19][20][21]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures closed with mixed results. The bond market is affected by multiple factors and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. Trading strategies suggest waiting and trying to go long on the T - contract quarterly - next - quarter inter - period spread [22][23][24]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Protein Meal - The international soybean market has a clear pattern of abundant production, and domestic bean meal has a large supply pressure. Strategies include short - selling far - month contracts of rapeseed meal and using a short - straddle option strategy [26][27]. 3.2.2 Sugar - International sugar prices are in a state of shock, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be range - bound. Strategies include going long on domestic sugar at low prices and selling put options at low levels [30][31]. 3.2.3 Oilseeds and Oils - The palm oil market is in a state of shock, with limited upside potential. Soybean oil follows the overall trend, and rapeseed oil is expected to continue to reduce inventory. Strategies include short - term long - short operations [34]. 3.2.4 Corn/Corn Starch - The external market of corn is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the domestic corn market has different trends in different regions. Strategies include short - term long - short operations and narrowing the spread between 01 corn and starch [37]. 3.2.5 Livestock (Pigs) - The supply pressure of pigs still exists, and strategies include waiting and selling a wide - straddle option strategy [39]. 3.2.6 Peanuts - Peanut prices are at the bottom and fluctuating. Strategies include short - selling 01 peanuts at high prices and conducting a 15 - peanut reverse spread [42]. 3.2.7 Eggs - Egg demand is average, and prices are stable with a slight decline. Strategies suggest waiting [47]. 3.2.8 Apples - Apple production has decreased, and the effective inventory is expected to be low. However, due to large price fluctuations, strategies suggest leaving the market and waiting [48][49]. 3.2.9 Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The cotton market has few fundamental contradictions and is in a state of shock. Strategies suggest waiting [52]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - Steel prices are in a range - bound pattern, and there is still room for reducing iron water. Strategies include maintaining a shock strategy and going long on the coil - screw spread [54][55]. 3.3.2 Double - Coking - The spot price of double - coking has回调, and the market is expected to be weak in the short - term. Strategies include gradually closing short positions and waiting to go long at low prices [57][58]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - Iron ore is treated with a bearish mindset. Strategies include short - term short - selling and conducting a 1/5 inter - period reverse spread [60]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys have weak supply and demand, with cost support. Strategies include bottom - bound shock operations and selling out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [61][62]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Precious Metals - Precious metals continue to fluctuate due to mixed signals from the US non - farm data. Strategies include holding long positions cautiously near the support level [65][68]. 3.4.2 Copper - Copper prices are under pressure from the strong US dollar. Strategies include trying to go long at low prices and focusing on the support level [70]. 3.4.3 Alumina - Alumina has not seen substantial production cuts, and prices are expected to be weak in the short - term. Strategies suggest waiting [74][76]. 3.4.4 Electrolytic Aluminum - The Fed's interest - rate decision is uncertain, and aluminum prices follow the sector. Strategies include short - term waiting and focusing on the spread between East China and the Central Plains [77]. 3.4.5 Cast Aluminum Alloys - Cast aluminum alloys follow the aluminum price. Strategies include short - term waiting [81]. 3.4.6 Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuate widely. Strategies include setting stop - profit points for long positions and being vigilant about macro - factors [85]. 3.4.7 Lead - Lead prices are range - bound. Strategies suggest waiting [87]. 3.4.8 Nickel - Nickel prices are in a downward trend, approaching the cost. Strategies suggest waiting for a turnaround in the inventory situation [88]. 3.4.9 Stainless Steel - Stainless steel has weak supply and demand, and prices are weak. Strategies include short - selling on rebounds and selling out - of - the - money call options [92][94]. 3.4.10 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon may have a short - term correction, and strategies include buying at low prices after a full correction [95].

| 油脂产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王法框 | Z0019938 | 2025年11月18日 | | | | | | | | | | | 田和 | 11月17日 | 11月14日 | 涨跌幅 | 狱跌 | | | | | | | | | 江苏一级 | 8590 | 8590 | 0 | 0.00% | 现价 | 8256 | 0.31% | Y2601 | 8282 | 26 | 期价 | | 墓差 | Y2601 | 308 | 334 | -26 | -7.78% | 现货墓差报价 | 01+270 | 01+270 | 0 | 江苏1月 | 5 | | 24993 | -216 | 仓单 | 24777 | -0.86% | 棕櫚油 | | | | | | | | 11月14日 | 11月17日 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | -0.23% | 广东24度 | 8570 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have rotated rapidly, with technology growth remaining the market's main line. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - Regarding treasury bonds, the economic data in October showed weakness in both supply and demand, and the overall situation declined compared to the third quarter. The social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [6][7]. - For precious metals, the upward drivers of gold and silver prices remain unchanged. The Fed is about to enter the balance - sheet easing cycle. It is recommended to go long on silver after the price pullback stabilizes [8][9]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly; aluminum prices may strengthen further after consolidation; zinc and lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term; nickel prices may have limited downside space; tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly; and the price trends of other non - ferrous metals also vary according to their fundamentals [11][13][15][16][18][20][21]. - In the black building materials sector, steel demand has entered the off - season, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term but may recover in the future. Iron ore prices will operate within an oscillating range. Glass and soda ash prices are expected to remain weak, and manganese - silicon and silicon - iron prices are recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment [33][36][38][40][43]. - For energy and chemical products, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended for short - term trading; crude oil is recommended for short - term observation; methanol, urea, and other products have different price trends based on their supply - demand and cost situations [56][58][59]. - In the agricultural products sector, for pigs, the strategy is to first conduct reverse arbitrage and then short after a rebound. For eggs, the short - term is expected to oscillate, and the medium - term is to short after a rebound. The prices of other agricultural products also vary according to their fundamentals [80][82]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: Important articles by General Secretary Xi Jinping were published in Qiushi Journal; the State Council executive meeting was held to promote consumption; many airlines announced free ticket refunds and exchanges; and the price of lithium carbonate may break through 150,000 yuan/ton if demand growth exceeds 30% next year [2]. - **Strategy View**: After a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have rotated rapidly, with technology growth remaining the main line. The long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: On Friday, the prices of treasury bond futures contracts had different changes. The central bank will conduct a 6 - month 800 - billion - yuan repurchase operation, and China's industrial added value in October increased by 4.9% year - on - year [5]. - **Strategy View**: The economic data in October showed weakness in both supply and demand, and the social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [6][7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices fell. The Fed's balance - sheet expansion cycle is in the early stage, and gold and silver prices are not expected to peak [8]. - **Strategy View**: The upward drivers of gold and silver prices remain unchanged. It is recommended to go long on silver after the price pullback stabilizes [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices declined and then rebounded. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic spot premiums increased [11]. - **Strategy View**: Copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly, with the Shanghai copper main contract operating in the range of 85,800 - 87,400 yuan/ton [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices declined. Domestic and overseas aluminum inventories had different changes, and the market trading was not good [14]. - **Strategy View**: Aluminum prices may strengthen further after consolidation, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract operating in the range of 21,650 - 22,000 yuan/ton [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore inventory increased slightly, and LME zinc inventory increased [16]. - **Strategy View**: Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices declined. Lead ore inventory increased slightly, and domestic lead inventory increased [17]. - **Strategy View**: Lead prices are expected to slow down their rise and enter an oscillating state [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fell sharply. Refined nickel inventory increased, and nickel - iron prices decreased [19]. - **Strategy View**: Nickel prices may have limited downside space, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fell. Tin ore supply was tight, and demand in emerging fields provided support [21]. - **Strategy View**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to go long on dips [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Carbonate lithium prices declined. The price of lithium concentrate increased, and the inventory of lithium carbonate was at a low level [23]. - **Strategy View**: The market contradiction is concentrated on the demand side. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in lithium - battery materials and battery production schedules [24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices fell. The basis was positive, and the inventory was stable [25]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices fell. The market supply was in excess, and the inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy View**: Stainless steel prices are expected to continue to decline [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices fell. The trading volume decreased, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices had different changes. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased [32]. - **Strategy View**: Steel demand has entered the off - season, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term but may recover in the future [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices were unchanged. The overseas shipment volume decreased, and the demand increased slightly [34][36]. - **Strategy View**: Iron ore prices will operate within an oscillating range, with the lower limit at 750 - 760 yuan/ton [36]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices fell, and soda ash prices also fell. The inventory of glass increased, and the inventory of soda ash decreased slightly [37][39]. - **Strategy View**: Glass prices are expected to be weak, and soda ash prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [38][40]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices declined slightly. The prices were in an oscillating range [41][42]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and beware of overseas sentiment fluctuations [43]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fell, and polysilicon prices also fell. The supply of industrial silicon decreased, and the demand for polysilicon decreased [45][48]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon is expected to be in a situation of weak supply and demand and oscillate weakly. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, and it is necessary to pay attention to relevant news [47][49]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillated and declined. The opening rate of tire factories was neutral, and the inventory increased slightly [51][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended for short - term trading and partial hedging [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined product prices rose. The inventory of refined products had different changes [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended for short - term observation and to wait for the verification of OPEC's export behavior [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices fell. The port inventory was high, and the supply pressure was still there [59]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see [59]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices fell slightly. The market was affected by news, and the inventory decreased [61]. - **Strategy View**: Urea prices are expected to oscillate and build a bottom [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices were unchanged, and styrene prices rose. The supply and demand of both had different changes [62]. - **Strategy View**: Styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [63]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. The supply was in excess, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [65]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased slightly. The inventory increased [66]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short on rallies [67]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices were unchanged. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was expected to be weak. The inventory increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: It is necessary to pay attention to the opportunity of PTA strengthening driven by PXN in the medium term [69]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices fell. The load was high, and the inventory was expected to increase slightly [70]. - **Strategy View**: It is necessary to pay attention to the opportunity of valuation increase in the medium term [72]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. The upstream opening rate increased, and the inventory had different changes [73]. - **Strategy View**: PE prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [74]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices fell. The supply pressure was high, and the demand increased slightly [75]. - **Strategy View**: PP prices are expected to be affected by cost changes in the first quarter of 2026 [76]. Agricultural Products Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices were expected to be stable in the south and decline in the north [78][79]. - **Strategy View**: First conduct reverse arbitrage and then short after a rebound [80]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable. The inventory was high, and the demand was recovering [81]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term is expected to oscillate, and the medium - term is to short after a rebound [82]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices fell. The global soybean supply decreased slightly, and the domestic soybean and meal inventory was large [83]. - **Strategy View**: Soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Palm oil export decreased, and production had different changes. Domestic oil prices oscillated [85][86]. - **Strategy View**: Observe the production trend of palm oil and adjust the strategy accordingly [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices fell. Brazilian sugar production increased, and India allowed sugar exports [88]. - **Strategy View**: Wait for a rebound and then short [89]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices oscillated. The downstream demand was weak, and the domestic production was high [90][91]. - **Strategy View**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [92].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and volatile situation, with different sectors having different trends and influencing factors. For example, the A - share market is affected by macro - data and shows an upward - then - downward trend; the steel and ore market is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term; and the energy market is influenced by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships [10][12][35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - The 22nd issue of Qiushi magazine published President Xi Jinping's important article. The National Bureau of Statistics released October economic data, showing a slowdown in multiple indicators. The prices of commercial housing in 70 cities declined. The Chinese government reminded citizens to avoid traveling to Japan. The State Council studied "two - important" construction and consumption - promotion policies. The central bank will conduct a large - scale reverse - repurchase operation. The US will release multiple economic data. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will list platinum and palladium futures. The market supervision department issued an anti - monopoly compliance guide. The national child - rearing subsidy system has been implemented, and the lithium - battery industry chain has seen a price increase. Trump adjusted the scope of "reciprocal tariffs" [4][5][6][7][8]. Macro Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Adopt a volatile mindset and temporarily hold off on trading. The A - share market rose and then fell, affected by macro - data. The decline in industrial growth, consumption, and investment may be due to technical factors, export slowdown, anti - involution, and the real - estate downturn [10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market's expectation of monetary easing has declined, but interest - rate cuts cannot be ruled out. Maintain the view of increased easing in Q4. The money market is affected by the approaching tax period, and the stock - bond seesaw effect is weakly effective [11]. Black - **Steel and Ore**: In the short - term, expect a volatile consolidation; in the medium - to - long - term, maintain a bearish view when prices are high. The supply - demand relationship is weak, with high inventory and low profit for steel mills. The price is affected by low - price transactions and may remain weak [12][13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices may continue to decline in the short - term. In the medium - term, the mine's production is restricted by policies, and the demand for steel is weak in the off - season, but the strong thermal - coal price provides some support [14]. - **Ferroalloys**: In the long - term, the oversupply situation is difficult to alleviate, so maintain a bearish view when prices are high. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. The prices are fluctuating narrowly, and the cost of manganese - silicon is relatively stable [15]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Currently, it is recommended to wait and see. The soda - ash industry has production fluctuations and cost increases, while the glass industry's strong sales have not continued, and the market is concerned about demand and inventory [16]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term fundamentals are good, but the demand may weaken in Q1 next year, limiting price increases. After the demand weakens, the price may correct, and it is advisable to buy on dips [18]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has no prominent supply - demand contradictions and can be bought on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. Polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate, influenced by policy expectations and supply - demand relationships [19]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. The price is undervalued compared to the spot, which limits the decline. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [23][24]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is expected to be bearish. Before the large - scale arrival of new sugar, it is advisable to wait and see. In the long - term, there is still supply pressure [25][27]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is weak, and the futures price may oscillate. The in - production laying - hen inventory is high, but it is expected to decline. It is recommended to short the near - term contracts [28]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to be strong in a volatile manner. The inventory is low, and the price is high. The future consumption trend will be the focus [30]. - **Corn**: The spot price has rebounded, but the supply pressure is still accumulating. It is necessary to pay attention to the new - grain sales progress and the release of policy wheat [31]. - **Red Dates**: Temporarily wait and see. The weak spot market in the sales area has a negative impact on the new - date ordering price [32]. - **Pigs**: The supply pressure continues, and the demand is average. The spot price is likely to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to short the near - term contracts [33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, it is expected to be strongly volatile, but the long - term downward trend of oversupply remains unchanged. The price is affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand forecasts [35]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price will follow the oil price, with a supply - abundant and demand - weak structure. The short - term focus is on supply concerns after the sanctions on Russia [36]. - **Plastic**: The supply pressure is large, and it is expected to be weakly volatile. The current price provides some support for producers [36][37]. - **Rubber**: Pay attention to the strategy of expanding the ru - nr spread. The price may oscillate in the short - term, with supply in the peak season and support at the bottom [37]. - **Methanol**: The near - term contracts are expected to be weakly volatile, and the far - term contracts can be moderately long after the rebound drive appears. The supply pressure is large, and the inventory is high [38][39]. - **Caustic Soda**: Wait for long - position opportunities after a significant decline. Pay attention to the cost support. The spot price is falling, and the futures price is weak [40]. - **Asphalt**: The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [41]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: It is expected to continue to be strong in the short - term, driven by improved supply - demand and market sentiment [42]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Although there are short - term positive factors, it is not advisable to chase the rise. Consider shorting at high prices in the medium - to - long - term [43]. - **Paper Pulp**: The fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. Observe the digestion of old warehouse receipts and spot transactions [45]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weakly oscillating, and the price is under pressure. The inventory is expected to increase, and the market is in the off - season [46]. - **Urea**: Wait and see, subject to specific policies. The spot price is falling, and the futures price is oscillating [47]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The short - term price will oscillate within a range. Be cautious when going long and consider selling call options after the rebound [48].

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 14 日星期五 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 dddddddddddd | | | | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日 SR601 合约收盘价 5512 元/吨，日涨幅 0.62%。夜盘收于 5498 元/吨；SR605 | | | | | 合约收盘价 5433 元/吨，日涨幅 0.41%。夜盘收于 5426 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1.昨日 ICE 原糖主力合约收盘价 14.43 美分/磅，日跌幅 0.96%。 | | | | | 2.据印度报业托拉斯（PTI）报道，食品部长普拉哈德・乔希表示，中央政府已决定 | | | | | 允许 2025/26 榨季出口食糖 150 万吨，低于业内人士此前要求的 200 万吨 ...