1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term overseas geopolitical situation may continue to suppress the stock index trend, but after a sharp market decline, the possibility of policy support increases, and the further decline space of the stock index is limited [1] - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the bond market oscillating [1] - Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause market sentiment to fluctuate, affecting the prices of various commodities, and most commodities show oscillating trends [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock index**: Short - term geopolitical situation suppresses the trend, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to long - position layout opportunities after the mitigation of geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [1] - **Bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintain an oscillating trend due to the complex Middle East situation [1] - **Aluminum**: The price rises due to the attack on UAE aluminum industry. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities as Middle East supply disturbances support the price [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: With a weak fundamental outlook, it is considered for short - position allocation. The reversal depends on European natural gas prices [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level due to Indonesia's policy and cost concerns. Operate with short - term low - buying and control risks [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillate. Pay attention to demand acceptance and consider short - term low - buying opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Considered relatively strong in the short term due to potential production impact from diesel supply shortages in major producing countries [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Concerns about stagflation support price rebounds, but geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Geopolitical news drives price rebounds, but geopolitical escalation and a strong dollar may suppress prices. They are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes production, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted [1] - **Polysilicon**: Faces liquidity risks [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Entering the de - stocking cycle, with limited total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: Oscillate. Price drivers come from cost support and low futures price valuations [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong and in the de - stocking cycle, but inventory is high. Consider an oscillating approach and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions [1] - **Iron ore**: The price may oscillate at a high level. Avoid chasing highs or lows and operate within a range [1] - **Coking coal**: There may be a rapid and sharp upward correction, but beware of risks from the development of the war. Exit long positions in time if the Strait is navigable [1] - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil**: High crude oil prices and increased US EPA quotas may push up the far - month price center. Pay attention to relevant policies [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten. Domestically, the price is expected to rise with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus. Domestically, the supply is also abundant, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and correct in the short term, but the correction range is limited [1] - **Soybean**: The May soybean arrival is sufficient, and there is delivery pressure. Wait for the callback to layout long positions in the far - month contracts [1] - **Paper pulp**: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Log**: The price is expected to rise due to the impact of the US - Iran war on the outer - market quotation [1] - **Live pigs**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and production capacity needs further release [1] Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Supply - side production cuts, transportation disruptions, and negotiation news disturbances affect the price [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is small, and it is relatively weakly affected in the energy sector [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material costs, with positive market sentiment, normal climate in the producing areas, and a relatively high futures - spot price difference [1] - **BR rubber**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, prices rise, and the inventory may turn to de - stocking [1] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price rises due to raw material shortages [1] - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to strengthen, and Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages [1] - **Styrene**: Supply shortages of ethylene and benzene lead to profit inversion for non - integrated producers, and the supply - side crisis intensifies [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - inversion and cost [1] - **Methanol**: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high and inventory is at a historical high [1] - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical tensions limit raw material supply, and the fundamentals are weak [1] - **PVC**: Future prospects are optimistic as capacity is expected to be cleared, but ethylene - based production faces raw material shortages [1] - **PG**: The price is relatively strong, but the demand side is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the domestic and international markets [1] Others - **Container shipping on the European route**: Affected by the war, the price is generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

Report Overview - Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: March 31, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View - The current market fundamentals have little change. The new regulations issued by the US Environmental Protection Agency provide medium - to long - term support for soybean oil, but the positive effect on US soybeans is weak. South American soybean production is expected to be abundant. The market is waiting for the USDA's planting area forecast report at the end of March. Domestic soybean meal prices follow the cost of US soybeans and are in a narrow - range oscillation. Before the report, consider double - buying options to bet on increased volatility. After the report, if the area is indeed increased and prices fall, consider selling out - of - the - money put options. There may be potential positive factors due to Brazilian arrivals in April, and the downward pressure may decrease [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - **Market Review**: - For soybean meal contracts, the prices of different contracts had different trends. For example, the closing price of the "Doupo 2605" contract was 2937, up 4 or 0.14% from the previous settlement price; the "Doupo 2607" contract closed at 2866, down 10 or - 0.35%; the "Doupo 2509" contract closed at 3003, down 15 or - 0.50%. The trading volume and open interest also changed. The US soybean futures contracts were oscillating, with the main contract close to 1165 cents [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: - Before the USDA report, consider double - buying options to bet on increased volatility. After the report, if the area is increased and prices fall, consider selling out - of - the - money put options. Also, pay attention to potential positive factors from Brazilian arrivals in April [6]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - Due to the Iran conflict, US farmers' planting plans have been disrupted. Corn planting area will be reduced, and the sowing volume of spring wheat is expected to reach the lowest level since 1970. Some farmers will switch to planting soybeans, and the soybean sowing area is expected to increase significantly. The average expectation of analysts surveyed by Reuters is that the US corn sowing area in 2026 will drop to 94.371 million acres, lower than 98.788 million acres in 2025; the soybean sowing area is expected to reach 85.549 million acres, higher than 81.215 million acres last year; the spring wheat area in the northern plains is expected to drop to 9.843 million acres, lower than 9.99 million acres last year. The price of high - gluten wheat has been weak due to Canada's record harvest last year. In Argentina, as of the week of March 25, the rainfall has helped improve the soybean crop rating, and the harvest of early - sown soybeans will start soon [7][9]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - There are various data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the "Doupo 05" contract, the spread between different contracts of soybean meal, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global capital market liquidity continues to be impacted, and domestic small and medium - cap stocks are dragged down. The stock index is expected to continue the shock pattern, and may restart the upward pattern in the future with the easing of external inflation pressure and the recovery of market risk appetite [1]. - Multiple factors such as housing demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure brought by fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the volatile operation of treasury bonds [1]. - Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals are under pressure, while the price of alumina may fluctuate due to the consideration of export quotas in Guinea. Nickel and stainless steel prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Precious metals are affected by the energy crisis and interest - rate hike trading, and their prices are under pressure. Platinum and palladium prices are also under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - For industrial silicon, the supply side resumes production, but demand is weak and inventory is being depleted. For lithium carbonate, there are factors such as strong energy storage demand, weak power demand, and strong capital risk - aversion sentiment, and the price is in shock [1]. - For black metals, most varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are in shock, and policies and cost support have an impact on prices [1]. - For agricultural products, palm oil is bullish, soybean oil is expected to rise following, and rapeseed oil has potential bullish factors in the short term. Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term, and sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - For energy and chemical futures, due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of many varieties such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are affected, and their prices show different trends [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to continue the shock pattern, and it is recommended to build long positions in the medium and long term by combining the discount advantage of stock index futures and control positions [1]. - Treasury bonds oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices may decline, aluminum prices are under pressure, and alumina prices may fluctuate. Zinc and tin prices are affected by the overall sentiment of the non - ferrous sector, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious metals are affected by the energy crisis and interest - rate hike trading, and platinum and palladium prices are under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Industrial silicon has issues of supply - side resumption and weak demand; lithium carbonate has multiple influencing factors and is in shock [1]. Black Metals - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, glass, and other varieties are in shock, and policies and cost support have an impact on prices [1]. - Coke and coking coal are affected by geopolitical factors, and it is necessary to pay attention to geopolitical changes [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil is bullish, soybean oil is expected to rise following, and rapeseed oil has potential bullish factors in the short term [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term, and sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - Corn futures are expected to continue the high - level shock pattern, and it is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors [1]. - It is recommended to wait for callbacks to layout long positions in the far - month contracts of soybean meal [1]. - Pulp futures are in a weak fundamental situation and are in shock in a certain price range [1]. - Log futures have large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Many varieties such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, and their prices show different trends [1]. - Urea has limited upward space and cost - side support; methanol has issues of Iranian imports and high domestic inventory [1]. - PE, PP, and PVC are affected by geopolitical factors, and PVC has a relatively optimistic future expectation [1]. - Caustic soda has a weak fundamental situation, and the market sentiment has cooled [1]. - LPG has a complex situation with factors such as price premiums, demand, and inventory, and there is a differentiation between internal and external markets [1]. - For container shipping on the European line, price increases are generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off - season in March [1].

Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: March 18, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Core Viewpoints - The external US soybean futures contracts are weak, with the main contract approaching 1155 cents. The market is more concerned about the Middle East situation. Although short - term oil prices are stable due to reserve releases, there is a basis for continued upward movement in the medium term, and agricultural product prices are affected by oil prices. The US President's visit to China may bring positive news for US soybean exports. Even with a bumper harvest in South America, US soybeans may still strengthen under macro - influence [6] - Domestic soybean meal rose this week, with a more significant increase than the external market. Due to changes in the Brazilian soybean export quarantine process, there may be a short - term supply shortage in April. In a bullish macro - environment, soybean meal may run strongly, but do not chase high entry considering the South American bumper harvest [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: For contracts such as bean粕2605, bean粕2607, and bean粕2609, the prices showed a decline, with the decline rates of - 0.42%, - 0.28%, and - 0.33% respectively. The trading volume and changes in open interest varied [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: In a bullish macro - environment, soybean meal may run strongly, but do not chase high entry considering the South American bumper harvest [6] 2. Industry News - **USDA March Supply and Demand Report**: Argentina's 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to be reduced from 48.5 million tons to 48 million tons, while exports remain at 8.25 million tons. Brazil's production is 180 million tons and exports are 114 million tons, both unchanged from last month. China's imports are 112 million tons, also unchanged. Global production is slightly reduced to 427.18 million tons, and global inventory is slightly reduced to 125.31 million tons [9] - **USDA March Supply and Demand Report for the US**: The sown area, harvested area, yield, production, exports, and ending inventory of US soybeans in 2025/26 are all the same as in February. Imports and crush volume are both increased by 0.5 million bushels [10] - **China's Import Data**: In February 2026, the total import of soybeans was 5.976 million tons, the lowest this year. It increased by 146,000 tons (2.50%) compared with the same period last year and decreased by 595,000 tons compared with the previous month [10] 3. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the spread between bean meal contracts, exchange rates, factory - gate prices, and basis of bean meal contracts [14][16][17]

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided about the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views - The Middle East situation has become tense due to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, leading to a sharp increase in market risk - aversion sentiment, which has a significant impact on the prices of precious metals, energy, and other commodities [1]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, some commodities are affected by supply disruptions, while others are influenced by demand changes and inventory levels [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On Friday night, international gold prices denominated in London gold rose 1.8% to $5277 per ounce, and international silver prices denominated in London silver rose 6.28% to $93.82 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The conflict in the Middle East has increased risk - aversion sentiment. The US PPI has increased more than expected, the US Treasury bond prices have risen, and the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond has fallen below 4.0%. There are changes in the inventory of gold and silver in various markets [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is expected that the domestic market will open higher today. Gold is recommended to hold long positions, and silver is recommended to reduce long positions and wait and see [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated and trended slightly stronger yesterday [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The conflict between the US and Iran has led to an increase in gold and oil prices and a stronger US dollar. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the visible global inventory has increased rapidly [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: Temporarily wait and see [1]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.02% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 23,745 yuan per ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate has increased slightly [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is expected that the electrolytic aluminum price will maintain a slightly stronger fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, overseas capacity changes, and the inventory reduction rhythm after domestic downstream resumption of work [1]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 2.70% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 2744 yuan per ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Alumina plants have both maintenance and resumption of production, and the operating capacity continues to decline. Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short term, the spot circulation of alumina is tight, and the price is stable with a slight increase. In the future, the upward driving force of the alumina price still requires substantial production cuts on the supply side or the implementation of anti - involution policies [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8395 yuan per ton, an increase of 60 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 0.72% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces increased by 2 last week. Both weekly warehouse receipts and social inventories increased slightly. The production of polysilicon and the output of the silicone industry have increased [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: The market is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 8600. If the duration of large - factory production cuts is limited, short positions can be considered at high prices [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 176,040 yuan per ton, an increase of 2380 yuan, with a closing price increase of 1.37% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate has decreased. The production and demand in March are expected to increase compared with January. The inventory is expected to be reduced in Q1 [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: The impact of the US - Iran conflict on lithium is expected to be small. The short - term price increase is mainly restricted by demand concerns, while the low inventory and increased inventory reduction support the price to oscillate at a high level [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 46495 yuan per ton, an increase of 180 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 0.39% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly production is flat, and the industry inventory has increased by 3.5% this week. The downstream prices are stable, and the production schedules of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in March have recovered [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Affected by factors such as the reduction of spot quotes by leading manufacturers, the expected resumption of production in March, and the unresolved position limit, the market sentiment is pessimistic. It is expected that the short - term market will maintain a weak oscillation between 45000 - 53000 yuan [2]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices rose significantly on Friday [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The market is worried about the supply disruptions in Myanmar and Congo. The downstream demand is good, and the global visible inventory has increased slightly after the Spring Festival [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is recommended to hold long positions [3]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 rebar contract closed at 3074 yuan per ton, an increase of 14 yuan per ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The steel spot market trading has not yet picked up, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The demand for building materials is expected to be weak, and the supply has decreased significantly year - on - year. The demand for plates is stable, and the inventory level is still high [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for RB05 is 3040 - 3100 [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 iron ore contract closed at 745.5 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3.5 yuan per ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of iron ore is neutral. The molten iron output has increased slightly month - on - month and is basically the same year - on - year. The steel mill profit is poor, and the subsequent blast furnace output may decrease slightly. The port inventory has increased year - on - year, and there is a structural contradiction [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 740 - 770 [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 coking coal contract closed at 1078 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6.5 yuan per ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The steel mill profit is poor, and the subsequent blast furnace output may decrease slightly. The first round of price increase has been implemented, and there is no subsequent price increase plan. The inventory in each link is differentiated, and the overall inventory level is neutral. The 05 contract futures are at a premium to the spot [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Close long positions. Aggressive investors can try to short the 2605 coking coal contract. The reference range for JM05 is 1050 - 1110 [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose last Friday [5]. - **Fundamentals**: There is an expected bumper harvest in South America. The US soybean crushing is strong, and the export expectation is strong. The global supply - demand is expected to be more relaxed [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: US soybeans are strong. Pay attention to the US soybean export and the realization of South American production. The domestic market is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term but lacks upward driving force in the medium term [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices continued to strengthen, and corn spot prices continued to rise [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain sales progress has exceeded 60%, but the progress is slow. The downstream inventory is low, and the downstream is in a loss state. The spot price is still dominated by the producing area [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The deep - processing industry replenishes inventory, and the futures price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger [6]. Fats and Oils - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil fell last Friday [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The expected production in Malaysia in February decreased month - on - month, and the export also decreased month - on - month. It is expected to enter the seasonal production increase period later [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Fats and oils are in a weak cycle. Trade the expected seasonal production increase, but there may be a short - term rebound driven by a sharp increase in crude oil. Use the reverse spread structure. Pay attention to the subsequent production and biodiesel policy [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices oscillated in a narrow range, and egg spot prices were stable [6]. - **Fundamentals**: After the Spring Festival, it is the traditional off - season for egg demand. The overall supply is sufficient, and egg prices are expected to run at a low level [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The demand is weakening, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices oscillated in a narrow range, and spot prices mostly fell [6]. - **Fundamentals**: According to the seasonal pattern, the supply pressure after the Spring Festival is large, and the demand is in the off - season. The futures and spot prices are expected to run weakly [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: Due to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the low - price spot quotation of LLDPE in North China rose by 50 - 80 yuan per ton, and the market trading volume increased [7]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no new device put into production in the first half of the year, and some existing devices will undergo spring maintenance. If Iran's supply is interrupted, the import volume to China will decrease. The current downstream demand is weak but is improving month - on - month [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short term, the inventory in the industrial chain has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the basis is weak. It is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term, and the upward space is limited by the import window. Pay attention to the development of the US - Iran incident [7][8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: v05 closed at 4803, an increase of 0.2% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: PVC is suppressed by high inventory and is still oscillating at the bottom. The supply is large, and the demand from downstream factories has not recovered. The social inventory has reached a new high [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply is balanced and the demand is weak, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The CFR China price of PX is $932 per ton, and the East China spot price of PTA is 5155 yuan per ton, with a spot basis of - 63 yuan per ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of PX is at a high historical level, and the supply of PTA has increased to a high level. The polyester factory load is at a seasonal low, and the comprehensive inventory pressure is not large [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: The geopolitical conflict has little impact on the fundamentals. The mid - term long - allocation view of PX remains unchanged. Pay attention to buying opportunities. PTA has a seasonal inventory increase, and the mid - term supply - demand pattern is improving. The processing fee has reached a high level, and it is appropriate to take profits [8]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 closed at 1050, a decrease of 0.1% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass is restricted by high inventory, and the price is hovering at the bottom. The supply has decreased significantly, and the inventory has accumulated again. The downstream demand is weak, and the glass production is in a loss state [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply is decreasing and the demand is weak, and the valuation is very low. It is recommended to buy glass and sell soda ash [8]. PP - **Market Performance**: Due to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the spot price of PP in East China rose by 50 yuan per ton, and the overall market trading was okay [8]. - **Fundamentals**: In the short term, the new device put - into - production in the first half of the year has decreased, and some devices have stopped unexpectedly. The domestic supply is gradually increasing, and the export window is open. The downstream is still on holiday, and the start - up rate is low [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short term, the inventory in the industrial chain has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the basis is weak. It is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term, and the upward space is limited by the import window. In the medium - to - long - term, the new devices put into production in the first half of the year have decreased, and the supply - demand pattern has slightly improved but the contradiction is still large. It is mainly in a range - bound oscillation, and it is recommended to short at high prices [8]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The East China spot price of MEG is 3621 yuan per ton, with a spot basis of - 80 yuan per ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: If Iran's MEG supply is in short supply, it will have a greater impact on the MEG price. From March, MEG devices will have more maintenance, and the polyester demand will pick up, and MEG will start to reduce inventory [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: The inventory increase has been fully expected, and inventory reduction may start in March. The current valuation is at a low level, and with geopolitical disturbances, it is recommended to continue to hold long positions [9]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Due to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the outer - market price rose about 7% on Monday morning, and SC is expected to open at the daily limit [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Iran's crude oil production is 3.3 million barrels per day, and the export volume is 1.8 million barrels per day. The conflict may lead to the paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz, which will have a significant impact on oil prices. OPEC has sufficient idle capacity to deal with Iran's supply interruption. OPEC+ will hold a meeting on Sunday to formulate a production plan for April [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: The current core of crude oil trading is the Middle East geopolitical risk. It is not recommended to directly participate in futures trading. Enterprises worried about rising oil prices can buy out - of - the - money call options at low prices, and enterprises worried about oil prices falling after rising can buy out - of - the - money put options at high prices [9]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main EB contract rose slightly by 80 yuan per ton on Saturday, and the spot market quotation in East China was 7700 yuan per ton, with a general trading atmosphere [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The pure benzene inventory is at a normal - to - high level during the Spring Festival. The supply - demand pattern of pure benzene and styrene will improve in the second and third months, but the overall contradiction is still large. The styrene inventory has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand is weak in the second and third months and will improve in the second quarter [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short term, the pure benzene inventory is at a high level, and the supply - demand has marginally improved. It will follow the cost (crude oil) to rise. The styrene inventory has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the basis is stable. In the short term, the supply - demand is weak in the second and third months, but it will follow the cost (crude oil) to rise due to the impact of the Iran geopolitical event. The upward space is limited by the import window. In the medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to go long on styrene at low prices in the second quarter [9][10]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 closed at 1189, an increase of 0.2% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The bottom price of soda ash is in a stalemate, and the upstream orders are okay. The supply is large, and the inventory has increased slightly. The downstream demand from photovoltaic glass is stable, and there is still an expectation of production reduction in float glass [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply is increasing and the demand is weak, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to short at high prices [10].

1. Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: February 25, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market will be in a range - bound oscillation without a trending market in the near future, and the domestic market may face greater phased pressure than the overseas market [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: The overseas soybean futures contracts were strong first and then weak during the holiday, with the main contract close to 1150 cents. The domestic market was mainly oscillating after the holiday. The soybean meal did not perform well due to the oil - meal seesaw effect [6] - **Factors Affecting the Market**: Overseas, the change in tariffs led to the game of subsequent export demand expectations. The large - scale harvest of Brazilian soybeans may make China's commercial purchases still tend to South America. In South America, the rainfall in Argentina's main producing areas alleviated the growth pressure of crops, and the soybean yield is expected to be stable. Domestically, attention should be paid to the auction of imported soybeans and Sino - US trade procurement news [6] 3.2 Industry News - **USDA Outlook**: In 2026, the US soybean planting area is expected to increase by 3.8 million acres to 85 million acres. The soybean output will reach 4.45 billion bushels, with a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. Total demand is expected to increase by 207 million bushels to 4.464 billion bushels. Ending stocks will remain basically flat at 355 million bushels. The cost of production is expected to remain high, squeezing planting profit margins [7] - **Other News**: Trump will visit China from March 31 to April 2, which is the first face - to - face meeting between the two leaders since last October. As of the week of February 18, 75% of Argentina's soybean crops were rated normal to good, and 66% of the planting areas had suitable to optimal moisture conditions [15] 3.3 Data Overview - The data includes the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 05 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of CCB Futures [13][14][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, A-shares are likely to have a restorative rebound. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the prices of various commodities have different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Before the holiday, the A-share market adjusted significantly due to the rise of risk aversion. During the holiday, the Hong Kong stock market rebounded, and technology sectors such as AI and robotics attracted wide attention. It is expected that A-shares will have a restorative rebound after the holiday [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. Attention should be paid to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1]. Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the copper price may fluctuate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Aluminum**: The macro situation is mixed, and the aluminum price will fluctuate in the short term. The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, and there are disturbances in the supply of a large alumina enterprise in North China. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long at a low price [1]. - **Zinc**: The negotiation between the United States and Iran has reached a deadlock, which has led to concerns about the supply of Iranian zinc mines and supported the zinc price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of downstream enterprises after the holiday [1]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel price rose slightly during the holiday. Although the tailings landslide in the Indonesian QMB project has limited actual impact, there are still concerns about nickel ore supply. The nickel price will fluctuate strongly in the short term and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. Attention should be paid to changes in Indonesian policies and macro sentiment. In the long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price and control risks [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material nickel-iron price remains firm, the spot transaction of stainless steel is weak, the social inventory has increased slightly, and the steel mills' maintenance and production reduction have increased in February. The stainless steel futures will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday. It is recommended to go long at a low price in the short term and control risks [1]. - **Tin**: The uncertainty of recent macro events is relatively large. Under the influence of US tariffs and geopolitics, the short-term volatility of the tin price may increase. Although the long-term trend of the tin price remains unchanged, investors are advised to pay attention to risk management and profit protection in the short term [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The judgment of the Supreme Court that the "IEEPA tariff" is illegal and Trump's new tariff policy have intensified market concerns about uncertainty. Coupled with the escalation of the geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran, the demand for hedging has supported the price of precious metals. The macro situation is favorable for platinum, and the balance expectation of palladium may improve, which may further support the palladium price in the short term [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The data of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 to 20 showed a double decline in production and exports. The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded and then faced pressure during the holiday and is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean oil has risen under the influence of biodiesel and crude oil prices. The domestic soybean oil may open higher but lacks new driving forces for the time being. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Rapeseed**: The ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the holiday and may be affected by US biodiesel and potential domestic import demand. Attention should be paid to the release of the EPA biodiesel policy and the anti-dumping arbitration announcement of Canadian rapeseed in China [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic new cotton crop has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream startup rate remains low, but the inventory of spinning mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, weather during the planting period, and the peak demand season from March to April [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new sugar supply is increasing. The short-selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital market [1]. - **Corn**: After the holiday, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of on-the-ground grain in the production areas. However, the quality of Northeast grain is relatively dry this year, and the selling pressure is expected to be limited under the support of the rigid replenishment demand of the middle and lower reaches. In addition, attention should be paid to the release of policy grain and the implementation of import restrictions after the holiday. The overall expectation is to maintain range fluctuations [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US tariff policy has changed during the holiday, but the external market fluctuated little, which has limited guidance for the domestic soybean meal market. The Brazilian soybean premium has declined, and the soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to Sino-US trade dynamics and Brazilian selling pressure in the near future [1]. - **Coniferous Pulp**: There is no obvious positive news for coniferous pulp during the Spring Festival. The previous positive factors on the supply side have basically faded. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short term. Attention should be paid to the port inventory after the holiday [1]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs has risen, the log arrivals in February have decreased, and the external quotation is expected to rise. The futures market has an upward driving force [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and the sentiment in the commodity market has cooled down. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material cost has strong support, the sentiment in the commodity market is changeable, the risk appetite of funds has decreased, the downstream demand has weakened before the holiday, and the basis difference has expanded to the high level of the same period [1]. - **Butadiene**: The cost end of butadiene has strong support, the overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term domestic butadiene export expectation. The profit of private cis-butadiene plants has remained in a loss state recently, and the expectation of maintenance and load reduction has increased. The downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. The butadiene market is in a state of destocking, and the high inventory of cis-butadiene is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of cis-butadiene before the Spring Festival and the trading performance of the butadiene market. The short-term market is expected to fluctuate widely, and the BR still has an upward expectation in the long term [1]. - **PX**: The PX-mixed xylene price difference has narrowed to $150, which is still enough to support PX manufacturers to purchase mixed xylene as raw materials. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high-level correction, and there are still risks of crude oil prices due to the Iranian geopolitical risk. The downstream PTA industry continues to be strong, and the domestic PTA output in January is expected to reach a new high, and there is no plan to reduce production during the Spring Festival, and there is no new PTA production capacity throughout the year [1]. - **Ethylene**: The production profit rate of naphtha cracking has declined due to the rise in raw material prices. The price difference between ethylene and naphtha has reached $83. Several Korean ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of their cracking devices in February. The ethylene glycol price is waiting at a low level [1]. - **Styrene**: The high inventory of pure benzene has weak import demand, and the price difference between the United States and Asia is $88, which is not enough to open the arbitrage window. The Asian styrene price and economic situation have recovered, mainly driven by supply tightening, unexpected shutdowns in the Middle East, surging export demand, and rising cost ends. The continuous strong export, short-term supply gap caused by domestic maintenance, and speculative buying driven by chemical futures support the firmness of the spot price [1]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is generally affected by the Iranian situation, and the future import is expected to decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The leading MTO device has stopped, and some enterprises have reduced production, but the Fude plant restarted on January 25. The Iranian situation has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. The freight has risen due to the cold air in the inland area, and the inventory pressure of enterprises in the northwest has increased, and they have reduced prices to sell goods [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, there will be less global production, and the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. The future expectation is relatively optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor, and the export rush has slowed down stage by stage [1]. - **LPG**: The CP price in February has risen, and the purchase in March is still relatively tight. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has cooled down, and the short-term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave has gradually slowed down, and the market expectation is weakening. It is expected that the basis will gradually expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to recover seasonally. The short-term demand side of LPG is bearish, which suppresses the upward movement of the market. The port inventory has been continuously decreasing, but the domestic civil gas is relatively sufficient, showing a divergence between propane and PG [1]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The freight rate peaked and fell before the holiday. Airlines are still cautious about tentative resume flights. Airlines are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off-season in March [1].

1. Report Information - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: February 3, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review** - For domestic soybean meal contracts, the prices of contracts such as bean粕2603, bean粕2605, and bean粕2607 all declined. For example, the closing price of bean粕2605 was 2750, a decrease of 26 or -0.94%, and its trading volume was 842011 with a position volume of 2089051, a decrease of 67829 [6]. - The foreign - market US soybean futures contract was weak, with the main contract approaching 1055 cents. The US soybean had a rebound before due to the digestion of negative factors, good weekly export data for two consecutive weeks, and relatively positive expectations from the biodiesel policy. However, due to the basically determined high - yield pattern of Brazilian soybeans, there was always supply pressure on the market [6]. - **Operation Suggestions** - Domestic 05 and subsequent contracts are priced according to the foreign - market cost. Since there is a lack of potential positive factors in CBOT, they are generally treated as range - bound with a slightly bearish bias on rebounds. The risk is that if the subsequent auction of imported soybeans falls short of expectations, it may drive the spot price to rise more than expected, which may have a small positive impact on the 05 contract [6]. 3. Industry News - **Brazilian Situation**: As of January 24, the harvest rate in Mato Grosso was 19.7% (five - year average of 14.63%), and in South Mato Grosso, it was 2% (five - year average of 2.75%), with the overall progress being normal. Except for the southernmost Rio Grande do Sul where soybeans are still in the critical growth stage, the production in other major producing states is basically set, and the expectation of a high - yield of new - season Brazilian soybeans is increasing [9]. - **Argentine Situation**: As of January 22, the soybean sowing rate was about 98% (last week was 95%, last year's同期 was 99%, and the five - year average was 97.8%), and the sowing work in all regions was basically completed. It will gradually enter the critical growth stage in February. Due to high temperatures and lack of rain, a crop expert lowered the Argentine soybean yield forecast by 2 million tons to 47 million tons [9][10]. - **Purchase Progress**: As of January 27, the purchase progress for January ship - ments was 100% (4.704 million tons), 93.24% for February (8.858 million tons), 96.57% for March (11.588 million tons), 55.42% for April (6.373 million tons), 27.31% for May (3.141 million tons), 21.67% for June (2.384 million tons), 7.41% for July (0.726 million tons), and 2.2% for August (0.198 million tons) [9][10]. - **Yield Forecast**: The crop expert predicted that the Brazilian soybean yield would reach 179 million tons, higher than the previous forecast of 178 million tons, but also emphasized that Brazilian soybean crops still faced risks from high - temperature and drought weather [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It details the current market situation, influencing factors, and future outlooks for each category, and provides corresponding trading strategies. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Copper**: High copper prices have suppressed terminal demand, leading to significant spot discounts and inventory accumulation. Upward drivers include further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations; downward drivers are weak demand. Suggest a light - position holding of a protective put option portfolio [2]. - **PP**: The basis weakens, and trading improves. Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot coal prices vary, and the upside of the futures price is limited. Switch to short - selling on rallies [3]. - **Soybean Meal**: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, but cost supports the downside. Concerns about customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [4]. - **Silver**: Supply tightness and capital drive prices to maintain a strong - side oscillation. Hold long positions, and reduce or lock positions before the Spring Festival [5]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: A - share indices rise, and the basis of the four major stock index futures contracts is repaired. The short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index rebounds [7][8][9]. - **News**: Beijing eases housing purchase restrictions, and the US raises IPO liquidity thresholds [8][9]. - **Funding**: A - share trading volume is stable, and the central bank conducts net injections [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try a bull - spread strategy on the CSI 300 index [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures decline, and short - term bonds are relatively strong [10]. - **Funding**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations result in net injections, and the funding rate is seasonally up but controllable [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider going long on the T contract on pullbacks and participate in the 2603 contract cash - and - carry arbitrage and basis - widening strategies [12]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Overseas markets are closed for holidays. Some precious metals experience price adjustments, with platinum strengthening and palladium once hitting the daily limit down [13][15]. - **Outlook**: The medium - to - long - term price of precious metals has an upward trend, but short - term fluctuations exist. Adopt a long - position strategy on dips [16]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index**: SCFIS and SCFI indices show an upward trend [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Container capacity increases, and demand in the eurozone and the US is weak [19]. - **Logic**: The futures contract is in a consolidation phase, with limited drivers, and is expected to oscillate in the short term [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High prices suppress demand, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Hold protective put options [24]. - **Alumina**: The market is oversupplied, and the price is expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line [26]. - **Aluminum**: The market is in a state of macro - positive expectations versus fundamental pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [29]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: High costs and weak demand limit price movements, and the price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [31]. - **Zinc**: TC stabilizes, demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [36]. - **Tin**: Supply is improving, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [40]. - **Nickel**: The market is affected by expectations of tightened ore supply, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [42]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a state of strong expectations versus weak reality, and the price is expected to oscillate and adjust [46]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a state of high - level oscillation, with strong capital sentiment. The price is expected to oscillate widely [50]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is in a high - level oscillation, with demand weakness. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to production - cut implementation [55]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel production is cut, and inventory is reduced. The price is expected to oscillate. Consider exiting the 1 - 5 positive spread and looking for opportunities to go long on the 5 - month iron - ore ratio [57][58]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a short - term range - trading strategy on the 05 contract [60]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply may decrease, and demand is weak. Switch to short - selling on rallies [66]. - **Coke**: The third price cut is implemented, and the price is expected to decline. Switch to short - selling on rallies [70][71]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply is reduced, and demand is stable. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [73]. - **Silicon Manganese**: High inventory suppresses price rebounds, and the price is expected to run weakly. Consider short - selling when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost [76]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, and customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [79]. - **Pigs**: Seasonal demand supports the market, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [81]. - **Corn**: Supply and demand are balanced, and the price is in a stalemate. Pay attention to selling sentiment and policy releases [84]. - **Sugar**: The international market is bearish, and the domestic market may have limited rebounds. Adopt a bearish - on - rebounds strategy [85]. - **Cotton**: US cotton oscillates at the bottom, and domestic cotton prices are expected to rise. The supply pressure is released, and the long - term outlook is optimistic [88]. - **Eggs**: Supply pressure is high but eases marginally. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate at the bottom [92]. - **Oils**: Palm oil may continue to rise but also faces downward risks. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have different market situations. Adopt corresponding strategies according to different varieties [93][95][96]. - **Jujubes**: The price rebounds. Pay attention to sales in the distribution areas. Consider selling call options [97]. - **Apples**: The price oscillates. Consider closing long positions [98]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: Valuation increases, and downstream feedback is negative. The upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [100]. - **PTA**: Follow PX trends, and the upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [102]. - **Short - Fiber**: Supply is high, and demand is weak. Follow raw - material fluctuations [104]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply is expected to increase, and processing fees may be compressed. Adopt the same strategy as PTA and short - sell processing fees on rallies [106]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to decrease, but the cost support is limited. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a 5 - 9 reverse - arbitrage strategy [108]. - **Pure Benzene**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [109]. - **Styrene**: Supply and demand both increase, and the price is expected to oscillate in a range [111]. - **LLDPE**: Supply and demand are weak. Go long on the 2605 contract in the short term [113]. - **PP**: Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - **Methanol**: The market is expected to balance in the first quarter of next year. Pay attention to the contraction of MTO05 [114]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and the price is expected to decline [116]. - **PVC**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The price is expected to decline after a rebound [117]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. Short - sell on rallies [120]. - **Glass**: The price is under pressure. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [120]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price is driven by macro - sentiment, but the fundamentals are weak. Try short - selling around 15700 [122]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Avoid short - selling the BR2602 contract [124][125].