行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 14 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 当日行情： 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货10月13日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2510 | 1,125.5 | 1,129.9 | 1,129.4 | 1,133.1 | 3. ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 大宗商品研究所 2025 年 10 月 13 日 0 / 46 大宗商品研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 豆粕：宏观影响再度增加 粕类波幅加大 3 | | --- | | 白糖：台风天气对市场有所利多 3 | | 油脂板块：中美关税再起，短期维持震荡 4 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：新粮集中上市，盘面底部震荡 5 | | 生猪：出栏压力继续体现 现货持续回落 6 | | 花生：收获遭遇降雨，花生短期偏强 7 | | 鸡蛋：震荡偏弱 7 | | 苹果：震荡略偏强 8 | | 棉花-棉纱：震荡略偏弱 9 | | 钢材：美国关税加码，钢价小幅承压 | 11 | | --- | --- | | 双焦：可逢低轻仓布局多单 | 11 | | 铁矿：高位偏空思路对待 | 12 | | 铁合金：估值不高，借宏观冲击空单减持 | 13 | | 贵金属：贸易争端再起，短期受避险情绪驱动 | 14 | | --- | --- | | 铜：关税引发铜价短线受挫，长期趋势不变 | 15 | | 氧化铝：供需过剩带动偏弱走势不变 | 16 | | 铸造铝合金：随铝价因关税政策升级走弱 但废铝价格或相对坚挺 | 1 ...

心症结。后续经济修复需重点聚焦居民需求端，当前供需两端政策正有序推进，未来或有 金融期货早评 宏观：关注中美贸易冲突后续进程 【市场资讯】1）商务部新闻发言人就中方宣布针对美对华造船等行业 301 调查限制措施实 施反制答记者问。中国商务部回应：中方依法对稀土等物项出口管制，不是禁止出口；希 望美方正视自身错误，与中方相向而行，回到对话协商的正确轨道上来。2）高通公司涉嫌 违反反垄断法，市场监管总局依法决定立案调查，称相关事实清楚、证据确凿，将继续推 进相关调查工作。3）报道：美联储主席候选人名单缩小至五人，贝莱德高管 Rieder 令贝 森特"印象深刻"。美联储理事沃勒：就业市场是最大担忧，对降息 25 基点持开放态度。4） 美国现代史上首次，白宫"管家"宣布特朗普政府开始永久性裁员。5）美国 9 月 CPI 报告发 布时间定于 10 月 24 日，比原定晚 9 天。6）日本执政联盟破裂，公明党宣布不再与自民 党联合执政，拒绝支持高市早苗任首相。7）法国总统马克龙再次任命勒科尔尼担任总理。 【核心逻辑】今年国庆假期人员流动表现亮眼，但消费端矛盾凸显，有效需求仍是当前核 增量政策出台以推动物价平稳回升。需注意 ...

研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 13 日 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货10月10日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | | 价 | | | | | （%） | | | | | EC2510 | 1,112.5 | 1,118.8 | 1,121. ...

全球多资产大跌，周期如何看？20251012 摘要 特朗普政府可能对波音飞机零部件实施出口管制，并计划对中国商品加 征关税，导致市场避险情绪升温，全球股市、油价及加密货币市场受到 影响。纳斯达克和标普 500 指数均创下 4 月以来最大单日和单周跌幅。 油价暴跌主要由于以色列与哈马斯达成加沙冲突第一阶段停火协议，市 场预期石油供应稳定性增强。ICE 布伦特原油和 WTI 原油均创下 5 月以 来最低水平，分别跌至 62 美元和 58 美元。 中美关税战可能使波音飞机成为谈判关键，中国航司或暂停交付，缓解 供给压力。国庆假期客座率上升及油价下跌利好航空股，推荐华夏航空、 港股三大行及 A 股吉祥春秋。中国航空公司至少持有 222 架波音飞机订 单，中国现役波音飞机为 1,855 架。 中美贸易战初期影响中美商品贸易，但集运市场波动反而利好运价。短 期进口下降后可能出现报复性囤货，增强集运行业不确定性，推荐中远 海控。嘉友国际业务主要在非洲和蒙古，极兔主要在东南亚和拉美，受 中美贸易战影响较小，甚至可能受益。 Q&A 全球多资产大跌的主要原因是什么？ 全球多资产大跌的核心原因是中国商务部和海关总署发布了涉及超硬材 ...

- FREE F 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年10月10日 欢迎关注微信公众号 主力合约 品种 点评 操作建议 板块 节前资金以获利止盈为主,长假中海外市场均表现 积极,旅游出行数据保持同比增长,综合提振市场 IF2512 风险偏好。科技主线持续活跃,节后A股主要指数 IH2512 节后开门红,周期板块火热上扬 股指 如期迎来开门红,但亦有冲高回落现象,推荐逢回 IC2512 IM2512 调轻仓卖出MO2511执行价6800附近看跌期权收 取权利金。 如果10年期国债利率上行至1.8%以上区间配置价 12512 值有所回升。短期期债预计继续区间震荡, TF2512 国债 长假后债市开门红,期债各品种均走暖 TS2512 T2512震荡区间可能在107.4-108.3,建议以观 金融 望为主等待超调机会。 TL2512 黄金操作上单边保持谨慎低多思路,期权在波动率 白银现货供应紧张价格盘中突破新高 地缘政治风险缓和贵金属 见顶后可逢高卖出虚值期权;关注伦敦白银拆借和 AU2512 贵金属 AG2512 租赁利率等短期供应紧张情况能否缓解,10-11月 神高回落 为非交割月上行 ...

集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/10/10 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਵ ਦੇ ਲੋ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基差 | 昨日成交昆 | | 昨日持仓昼 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | EC2510 | | 1119.9 | 0.84 | -73.4 | 15562 | | 21030 | -57-52 | | | EC2512 | | 1688.0 | -2.53 | -641.5 | 41507 | | 24222 | 3451 | | | EC2602 | | 1406.0 | -14.41 | -359.5 | 12789 | | 8743 | 209 | | | EC2604 | | 1119.9 | -10.7 | -73.4 | 6566 | | 11087 | 1856 | | | EC2606 | | 1277.5 | -1 3.05 | -231.0 | | 990 | 1370 | 471 | | | 月差 | | 前 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After the holiday, the A-share market showed a positive start, but there were also signs of a pullback after the rally. The technology sector remained active, and it is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 at the strike price of around 6800 when the price pulls back [2][4]. - The bond market started well after the holiday, but the sentiment may be suppressed by the risk appetite. The short-term bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait for over - adjustment opportunities [6]. - Precious metals prices first rose and then fell. Silver hit a new high due to supply shortages, and it is recommended to maintain a cautious and low - buying strategy for precious metals in the fourth quarter [9][10]. - The shipping index of European routes showed a weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - contract [12]. - Copper prices are expected to be strong due to supply shortages, while aluminum oxide prices are expected to be weak due to supply surpluses [14][20]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, tin prices are expected to be strongly volatile, nickel prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [31][36][40]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight balance, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [43]. - Steel prices are expected to be stable, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils [45]. - Iron ore prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [47]. - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contracts of both at low prices [51][54]. - The price of domestic meal is suppressed by supply pressure, and the M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [57]. - The price of live pigs is under pressure, and it is recommended to go short on the futures at high prices and conduct reverse arbitrage on relevant contracts [59]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: After the holiday, A - share major indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.32%, and the cyclical sectors performed strongly, while the consumer sectors declined [2]. - Futures situation: The four major stock index futures contracts rose, and the basis spreads of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly [3]. - News: Domestic consumption increased during the holiday, and overseas, the Fed showed a willingness to cut interest rates [3]. - Capital: The trading volume of the A - share market increased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [4]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 at the strike price of around 6800 when the price pulls back [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed up across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds mostly declined [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the inter - bank market funds were relatively loose [6]. - Operation suggestion: The short - term bond market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait for over - adjustment opportunities [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: Geopolitical risks eased, and precious metals prices first rose and then fell. Silver hit a new high due to supply shortages [7][9]. - Future outlook: In the fourth quarter, precious metals prices are expected to be bullish, and it is recommended to maintain a cautious and low - buying strategy [10]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index of European Routes - Spot quotation: The freight rates of different shipping companies are provided [11]. - Index situation: The shipping index of European routes declined, and the freight rates of different routes also decreased [11]. - Fundamentals: The global container capacity increased, and the demand in different regions varied [11]. - Logic: The futures market was weakly volatile, and the price increase of shipping companies will affect the main contract price [12]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to go long on the 12 - contract [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: The price of electrolytic copper rose, but the downstream procurement willingness was weak [12]. - Macro: The US government was shut down, and the market expected the Fed to implement monetary easing [13]. - Supply: The supply of copper mines was tight, and the production of refined copper was expected to decline [14]. - Demand: The demand for copper was expected to slow down marginally, but it still had strong resilience [15]. - Inventory: The inventories of LME, COMEX, and domestic social copper increased [16]. - Logic: Weak US dollars and supply shortages drove the copper price up [17]. - Operation suggestion: Hold long positions, and pay attention to the support at 84000 - 85000 [17]. Aluminum Oxide - Spot: The price of aluminum oxide declined, and the overall trading sentiment was weak [17]. - Supply: The domestic and overseas supply of aluminum oxide increased, and the demand was weak [20]. - Inventory: The inventory of aluminum oxide was high, and the registered warehouse receipts increased [19]. - Logic: The futures price fluctuated widely, and the short - term price was under pressure [20]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 2850 - 3050 [20]. Aluminum - Spot: The price of aluminum rose, but the high price suppressed the procurement willingness [21]. - Supply: The production of electrolytic aluminum was expected to increase slightly [21]. - Demand: The demand for aluminum showed structural characteristics, and the high price suppressed the orders of small and medium - sized enterprises [23]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased after the holiday [22]. - Logic: Macro factors supported the aluminum price, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [23]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 20700 - 21300 [23]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: The price of aluminum alloy rose [25]. - Supply: The supply of recycled aluminum was tight, and the开工 rate was affected [25]. - Demand: The demand for aluminum alloy recovered moderately, but the terminal demand was weak [25]. - Inventory: The inventory of aluminum alloy continued to increase [26]. - Logic: The futures price rose with the aluminum price, and the cost supported the price [27]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 20200 - 20800. Consider arbitrage if the price difference is over 500 [27][28]. Zinc - Spot: The price of zinc rose, and the trading was light [28]. - Supply: The supply of zinc was loose, and the production of zinc ingots increased [29]. - Demand: The demand for zinc was weak, and the开工 rate of primary processing industries declined [30]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory of zinc decreased, and the LME inventory increased [31]. - Logic: Low inventory and weak US dollars supported the zinc price, and it is expected to fluctuate [31]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 21800 - 22800 [31]. Tin - Spot: The price of tin rose significantly, but the trading was light [31]. - Supply: The supply of tin was affected by Indonesia, and the import volume decreased [32]. - Demand: The demand for tin was weak, and the traditional consumption areas were sluggish [33]. - Inventory: The LME inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased [33]. - Logic: Supply disruptions and the strength of the semiconductor sector drove the tin price up, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [34]. - Operation suggestion: Wait and see [34]. Nickel - Spot: The price of nickel rose [35]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel was at a high level and was expected to increase slightly [35]. - Demand: The demand for nickel in different sectors varied, and the demand for stainless steel was weak [35]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory of nickel was high, and the domestic social inventory was stable [35]. - Logic: Macro factors and policy expectations supported the nickel price, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [36]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 120000 - 126000 [36]. Stainless Steel - Spot: The price of stainless steel rose slightly [37]. - Raw materials: The price of raw materials was firm, and the cost supported the price [37]. - Supply: The production of stainless steel was expected to increase, and the supply pressure existed [38]. - Inventory: The social inventory of stainless steel decreased slowly [38]. - Logic: The futures price rose slightly, and the downstream demand did not meet expectations [39]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 12600 - 13200 [40]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: The price of lithium carbonate was stable, and the trading was light [40]. - Supply: The production of lithium carbonate increased, and the supply was affected by new projects [41]. - Demand: The demand for lithium carbonate was stable and optimistic, but the marginal increase needed to be tracked [41]. - Inventory: The inventory of lithium carbonate decreased in all links [42]. - Logic: The futures price fluctuated, and the supply and demand were in a tight balance [43]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate around 70,000 - 75,000 [43]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: Steel prices were stable during the holiday and rebounded slightly after the holiday [43]. - Cost and profit: The cost of steel had support, and the profit declined [44]. - Supply: The production of steel decreased slightly during the holiday, and the overall production was high [45]. - Demand: The demand for steel showed seasonal improvement, and the export volume was high [45]. - Inventory: The inventory of steel increased during the holiday and is expected to decrease seasonally [45]. - View: Steel prices are expected to be stable, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils [45]. Iron Ore - Spot: The price of iron ore rose [46]. - Futures: The price of iron ore futures rose, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened [46]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties was provided [46]. - Demand: The demand for iron ore decreased slightly [46]. - Supply: The global shipment of iron ore decreased, and the arrival volume increased [46]. - Inventory: The port inventory of iron ore increased, and the daily dredging volume decreased [47]. - View: Iron ore prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [47][48]. Coking Coal - Futures and spot: The coking coal futures rebounded, and the spot price declined slightly [49]. - Supply: The production of coking coal decreased, and the inventory decreased [50]. - Demand: The demand for coking coal decreased slightly [50]. - Inventory: The total inventory of coking coal decreased [50]. - View: Coking coal prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [51]. Coke - Futures and spot: The coke futures rebounded, and the spot price of the factory was stable while the port price declined [54]. - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was negative [53]. - Supply: The production of coke decreased slightly [53]. - Demand: The demand for coke decreased slightly [53]. - Inventory: The total inventory of coke decreased [53]. - View: Coke prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [54]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The price of domestic meal increased, and the trading volume of soybean meal increased [55]. - Fundamental news: The export sales report of US soybeans was postponed, and the export of Brazilian soybeans was expected to increase [55][56]. - Market outlook: The price of domestic meal is suppressed by supply pressure, and the M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [57]. Live Pigs - Spot situation: The price of live pigs declined [58]. - Market data: The profit of live pig breeding decreased, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens declined [58]. - Market outlook: The price of live pigs is under pressure, and it is recommended to go short on the futures at high prices and conduct reverse arbitrage on relevant contracts [59].

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-10-10 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 期货研究 1 期货研究 2025-10-10 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 商务部连发四则公告对稀土、锂电池、超硬材料等出口管制 观点分享： 10 月 9 日，商务部发布了两项关于加强稀土相关物项出口管制的公告，分别对境外相关 稀土物项、稀土相关技术实施出口管制；并联合海关总署明确对超硬材料、稀土设备和原辅 料、钬等 5 种中重稀土、锂电池和人造石墨负极材料相关物项实施出口管制。上述出口管制 将于 11 月 8 日正式实施。稀土相关物项是本轮出口管制的重点。商务部新闻发言人指出， 稀土相关物项具有军民两用属性，对其实施出口管制是国际通行做法。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 白银 | ★★★★ | 白银：昨日白银价格大涨，伦敦银最高冲破 50 美元，达到 51.221 美元，创出历史新高，且 相较 COMEX 出现大幅升水。主要原因在于海外现货紧俏，自 8 月以来，白银被纳入关键矿 产清单后，将面临潜在的 232 条款关税调查，最高可达 50%的进口关税。cmx-lbma 价差骤 然 ...

薛鹤翔、汪洋（薛鹤翔系申银万国期货研究所所长、中国首席经济学家论坛成员） + 摘要 国内宏观：国内宏观经济在消费与产业政策领域呈现出鲜明特征。消费端，十一假期出行数据反映出旅游 市场复杂态势。出行节奏提前，但整体出行强度逊于五一假期，显示居民出行决策更趋理性，可能与假期 安排、天气等因素有关。在旅游结构上，传统景点热度部分回落，而特色旅游如"省际交界游""边境游"异 军突起，表明消费者对旅游体验的个性化需求增长，旅游市场正在向多元化、特色化转型。免签范围扩大 刺激出境游增长，也反映出国内居民对国际旅游需求的释放以及国家在旅游开放政策上的积极成效，这有 助于带动旅游消费及相关服务业发展。 国外宏观：国庆长假期间，美国9月ADP就业、服务业PMI弱于市场预期。9月ADP就业减少3.2万人，大幅 低于市场预期的新增5.1万人，年度基准调整对其构成了4.3万人的影响，但就业市场趋势仍为走弱；美国9 月ISM服务业PMI回落至50，其中商业活动、新订单指数分别回落至49.9、50.4。 贵金属：国庆期间黄金持续创历史新高并突破4000美元/盎司，整体上黄金正处于一个历史级别的长期牛之 中，核心驱动包括对美国债务可持续性 ...