Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market in China to support the overall economy and prevent systemic risks, as highlighted in the Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - China's real estate market is undergoing significant adjustments, with some projects and cities experiencing oversupply, leading to a notable decline in sales and prices, which impacts the demand side of the economy and financial institutions [3][5]. - The real estate sector is crucial for the national economy, contributing to employment and involving numerous related industries such as steel, cement, and home appliances, with its value added accounting for 13% of GDP in 2024 [6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Development - Since the early 1980s, China has transitioned from welfare housing to a market-oriented housing system, significantly improving living conditions over 20 years, with urban per capita housing area reaching 38.6 square meters by 2020 [4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" anticipates a cumulative sales area of approximately 5 billion square meters of commercial housing, with urban per capita housing area projected to reach around 41 square meters by the end of 2024 [4]. Group 3: Challenges and Structural Changes - The real estate market is shifting from a phase of housing shortage to a phase of balance, with structural supply issues, particularly in affordable housing for new citizens and young people [5][7]. - There is a growing demand for quality housing, with residents increasingly focused on the quality of living rather than mere availability [5]. Group 4: Policy Measures and Future Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting in September 2024 called for measures to stabilize the real estate market, including a combination of policies aimed at risk prevention and promoting transformation [8]. - The government is implementing various initiatives to enhance housing supply, including the construction of affordable housing and the renovation of old residential areas, with a focus on meeting the high-quality living needs of the population [8][9]. Group 5: Market Dynamics and Expectations - Despite overall stability in the real estate market, some cities are experiencing fluctuations, and real estate development investment continues to decline, indicating a need for time to adjust and stabilize market dynamics [9][10]. - The article stresses the importance of maintaining policy consistency and effectively managing supply to support the transition to a new development model in the real estate sector [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of stabilizing and improving expectations in the real estate market to support the overall economy, especially in light of recent significant changes in supply and demand dynamics [2][4]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The real estate market in China is undergoing a deep adjustment, with a shift from a housing shortage to a basic balance in total supply, but with structural supply deficiencies, particularly in affordable housing [4][6]. - The average urban housing area per person reached 38.6 square meters in 2020, an increase of about 7 square meters over the past decade, with projections to reach approximately 41 square meters by the end of 2024 [3][6]. - The real estate sector's contribution to GDP is projected to be 13% in 2024, directly supporting over 70 million jobs, indicating its continued significance in the economy [5]. Group 2: Policy Measures and Government Actions - The Central Political Bureau meeting on September 26, 2024, highlighted the need to promote stability in the real estate market and to develop a new model for real estate growth, with a focus on high-quality development [7]. - A policy package has been introduced, including "four cancellations, four reductions, and two increases," aimed at stabilizing the market and ensuring the completion of housing projects [7][9]. - The government is actively managing supply by controlling new developments and revitalizing existing stock, while also encouraging the construction of high-quality housing [9][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Market Potential - Despite recent declines in investment, sectors such as housing services and second-hand transactions continue to grow, indicating significant market potential [5][8]. - The urbanization rate is projected to reach 67% by 2024, with ongoing demand from new urban residents and graduates, suggesting a sustained need for housing [6][8]. - The transition from traditional real estate development models to more integrated approaches that include services and operations is necessary for future growth [4][10].

Core Viewpoint - The forum emphasizes the importance of ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) in driving industrial upgrades and urban innovation, aligning with China's dual carbon strategy and the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][38]. Group 1: Forum Overview - The 2025 ESG Development Forum and the 12th China Urban Innovation High-Quality Development Forum were held in Beijing, focusing on ESG practices and urban innovation [1]. - The event gathered leaders from various sectors including real estate, energy, technology, and finance to discuss core pathways for ESG implementation [1]. - The forum was co-hosted by multiple organizations, highlighting its significance as an influential annual event in the industry [1]. Group 2: Key Speakers and Insights - Notable speakers included former vice president of the China Real Estate Association, Miao Leru, who provided insights on the real estate market outlook for 2026 and the industry's ESG transformation [6]. - Li Xiaolin, chairman of Lindar Group, discussed the symbiotic relationship between social responsibility and high-quality development, emphasizing a cycle of "responsibility empowering development" [8][9]. - Zhang Peng, chairman of Contemporary Real Estate, shared the company's exploration in ESG system construction and highlighted the upcoming IPO of 51WORLD on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [11]. Group 3: Industry Collaboration and Innovation - The forum featured discussions on the integration of ESG principles into various industries, with a focus on collaborative efforts for high-quality development [30]. - The establishment of the All-Domain Digital Huabiao Industry Development Center was announced, aiming to merge technological advancements with industry resources for enhanced data security and innovation [22][24]. - The event also highlighted the importance of digital transformation in addressing industry pain points and fostering sustainable development [26]. Group 4: Awards and Recognitions - The 12th China Real Estate Huabiao Awards recognized outstanding contributions in various categories, including lifetime achievement and innovation in real estate [35][37]. - Awards were given to companies and individuals who demonstrated excellence in ESG practices and high-quality development, reflecting the industry's commitment to sustainable growth [35][37]. Group 5: Future Directions - The forum concluded with a call for continued collaboration and innovation in ESG practices, positioning it as a key driver for future urban development and industrial upgrades [38]. - The emphasis on ESG as a core competitive advantage for companies and a critical factor for urban development was reiterated, setting the stage for future initiatives [38].

Group 1 - The event "Good House, Happy Life" promotional activity in Nanning aims to stimulate market vitality through a combination of real estate promotions, land recommendations, public services, and cultural performances [1] - Nanning's real estate market has shown a stable and healthy development, with a 4.9% year-on-year increase in the signed transaction area of commercial housing from January to November 2025, and a 9.1% increase in residential signed transaction area [1] - The city has implemented various policies to reduce housing costs for residents, including a maximum subsidy of 60,000 yuan for newlyweds, families with multiple children, and residents participating in housing exchanges [1] Group 2 - The Nanning Natural Resources Bureau promoted 23 quality commercial and residential land parcels, covering approximately 1,270 acres, located in key areas such as Qingxiu District and Wuxiang New District [2] - The event featured various zones including policy consultation, land planning displays, real estate exhibitions, financial services, and a New Year goods market, with nearly 40 brand real estate companies participating [2] - The event will last until January 2, offering a series of activities such as smart home experiences, financial service consultations, and cultural performances to provide one-stop services for citizens [2]

2025，全球经济在波动中寻求新的平衡。 2026，我们在挑战中寻找一些确定性。全球经济增长前景如何？中国经济有哪些新动向？美联储是否会 激进降息？中国货币政策如何继续适度宽松？财政政策怎样促进居民增收？黄金是否会续创新高？人民 币会继续升值吗？房地产市场风险能否出清？美股AI泡沫会被戳破吗？A股能否站稳4000点？科技股能 否持续带动市场？ 行至岁末，挑战依旧。 带着这些问题，第一财经携手十位"年度机构首席经济学家"，为你预测2026。 全球 中金公司首席经济学家、研究部负责人、中金研究院院长 第一财经：2026年全球经济增长前景如何，中国经济有哪些新动向？ 彭文生：地缘竞争日益成为影响全球经济和市场的关注点，这既涉及传统的经贸，更包括人工智能等创 新领域的博弈。资源禀赋、规模经济、交易成本是国际贸易与全球产业链的三个决定因素。其中，资源 禀赋和传统理解的比较优势有关（劳动密集、资本密集、自然资源）；交易成本包括运输成本、关税和 非关税保护主义措施等；对于美国关税的影响，中国的规模经济优势是一个重要因素。 在新的地缘形势下，以内部循环为主体、内外部循环相互促进的双循环呈现一些新的动向。内循环方 面，实体经济 ...

Group 1 - The global economy is experiencing a shift towards more accommodative monetary policies, with central banks expected to enter a rate-cutting cycle in 2024, except for Japan [6] - The resilience of the US economy is attributed to effective macroeconomic policies and the collaboration between fiscal and monetary measures, which have helped avoid recession despite aggressive interest rate hikes [5][6] - The US GDP has shown unexpected growth, with a 2.9% increase in 2023 and a projected 2.8% growth in 2024, largely supported by excess savings accumulated during the pandemic [5] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the need for a new development model in China's real estate sector to stabilize the market and promote high-quality economic growth, as highlighted in recent central government meetings [9][10] - The current real estate model has led to high debt levels among companies, necessitating a shift towards a more sustainable approach that addresses both supply and demand issues in the housing market [10][11] - Key focus areas for the new real estate model include improving housing supply systems, enhancing financial services for homebuyers, and reforming sales systems to stabilize the market [11][12] Group 3 - The article discusses the challenges and opportunities presented by low interest rates in China, suggesting that a combination of proactive fiscal policies and accommodative monetary policies is essential for economic stability [40][41] - It highlights the importance of addressing structural issues in the economy, such as improving public services and enhancing the efficiency of resource allocation [41][42] - The financial sector is urged to adapt to the low interest rate environment by providing innovative financial products and services that meet the evolving needs of consumers and businesses [43] Group 4 - The rise of digital assets is reshaping the global financial landscape, with significant developments in regulatory frameworks and market structures [55][56] - Digital assets, including central bank digital currencies and cryptocurrencies, are becoming mainstream, prompting major economies to establish strategic frameworks for their development [55] - Challenges remain in terms of technology, regulation, and market liquidity, necessitating careful consideration of the future direction of digital assets [56][57]

Group 1 - Evergrande's assets are entering a concentrated disposal phase, with the auction of the Palm Island Golf Course and related assets scheduled for January 5, 2026, starting at a price of 150 million yuan [1][2] - The Palm Island project has a land use area of approximately 991,700 square meters and was originally developed by Guangsheng Overseas Chinese (Daya Bay) Investment Co., Ltd. in 1997 [5] - The project has an estimated value of 263 million yuan and a liquidation value of 131 million yuan, with additional costs for the winning bidder including employee salaries and temporary rental fees [5][6] Group 2 - Some assets of Changsha Evergrande Children's World have already been disposed of, with three entertainment and sports land parcels sold for 283 million yuan, significantly below the estimated value of 505 million yuan [7][8] - The project was initially planned as the world's largest fairy tale theme park but has been stalled due to Evergrande's liquidity crisis [10] - Other Evergrande Children's World projects across the country have also been revitalized, with various local entities taking over the land parcels [10] Group 3 - Financial debt and related land disposals are also progressing, with institutions like Minsheng Bank and Great Wall Asset Management actively transferring Evergrande's debts [11] - A debt package worth 2.36 billion yuan was sold for 319 million yuan, reflecting a significant discount of approximately 1.35 times [11][14] - The overall discount on asset disposals indicates a broader trend in the real estate industry regarding the pricing of non-performing assets, which is influenced by market recovery, asset quality, and policy support [14]

Core Viewpoint - The new tax policy announced by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration will reduce the value-added tax (VAT) on the sale of residential properties held for less than two years from 5% to 3%, effective January 1, 2026, while maintaining the exemption for properties held for two years or more [1][2]. Group 1: Tax Policy Changes - From January 1, 2026, individuals selling residential properties held for less than two years will pay a VAT of 3%, down from the previous 5% [1]. - The exemption for properties held for two years or more remains unchanged, continuing to allow for no VAT payment [1]. - For a property sold at a total price of 3 million, the VAT payable will decrease from approximately 150,000 to 90,000, resulting in a tax saving of around 60,000 [1]. Group 2: Market Implications - The reduction in VAT is expected to lower transaction costs and reduce friction in the housing market, potentially releasing pent-up demand affected by high transaction costs [2]. - The policy aims to alleviate difficulties in selling properties, particularly reducing instances where sellers must significantly lower prices to complete sales [2]. - The current market context shows a continuous decline in second-hand housing prices, with a need for policy intervention to stabilize the market [2][3]. Group 3: Broader Policy Context - Recent government meetings have emphasized the need to remove unreasonable restrictions on housing consumption and lower transaction costs [3]. - The housing market is experiencing a blockage in the "sell old to buy new" cycle, with a clear distinction emerging between new and second-hand housing markets [3]. - The government is actively implementing policies to stabilize the real estate market, including optimizing housing supply and supporting reasonable financing needs for real estate companies [4]. Group 4: Local Policy Adjustments - Recent local policies in Beijing have adjusted social security or tax payment requirements for non-local families, reducing the duration from three years to two years for purchases within the Fifth Ring Road [5]. - The minimum down payment for second homes using public housing funds has been lowered from 30% to 25% [5].

记者丨张敏 编辑丨张伟贤 编辑丨柳润瑛 12月30日，财政部、税务总局发布《关于个人销售住房增值税政策的公告》称，个人（不含个 体工商户中的一般纳税人，下同）将购买 不足2年 的住房对外销售的，按照 3% 的征收率全 额缴纳增值税；个人将购买2年以上（含2年）的住房对外销售的， 免征增值税 。 该公告自2026年1月1日起施行。 此次政策前，个人将购买不足2年的住房对外销售时，增值税税率为5%。因此，此次政策出台 后，二手住宅交易成本将进一步下降。 以房屋出售价格200万元、持有未满两年计算，新政前需缴纳的增值税为10万元，新政后只需 缴纳6万元，政策将 节约4万元 的交易成本。 这也是自2016年全面"营改增"以来， 我国首次对个人销售住房增值税税率进行调整。 广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉指出，随着交易成本的下降，更多的需求将被释 放。同时，因交易成本高而不得不大尺度降价卖房的案例也将减少。 上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进也表示，此举可以更好地满足改善性住房需求的释放。随 着成本下降，房主更有能力和意愿将旧房出售，进而换购新房。 疏通置换链条 此次增值税政策的调整，与当前的政策与市场背景密不可分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in real estate prices in major cities like Beijing, highlighting a shift in buyer psychology and investment logic in the real estate market [1][5][10]. Group 1: Real Estate Price Trends - In Beijing's Haidian district, the transaction price for a specific property type dropped to 750,000, down from 968,000 six months prior, indicating a substantial decline [1]. - The article notes that while previously, real estate was seen as a guaranteed investment, the current market reflects a shift where prices are not expected to rebound quickly, and the investment logic has changed from growth to value [10][9]. Group 2: Buyer Sentiment and Behavior - There is a noticeable shift in buyer sentiment, with many individuals now opting for full cash purchases rather than relying on loans due to job instability and economic uncertainty [5][6]. - The article mentions that the perception of real estate as a secure investment has diminished, leading to a decrease in interest in purchasing properties, especially in first and second-tier cities [4][3]. Group 3: Economic and Policy Context - The article outlines a broader economic context where the government is shifting its focus away from real estate investment, indicating a change in national strategy towards infrastructure and new industries [13][14]. - It highlights that the funding for real estate development has decreased significantly, with projections showing a decline in investment from 15.4 trillion in the 14th Five-Year Plan to an estimated 8-10 trillion in the 15th Five-Year Plan [16].