研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 12 月 9 日 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1：行情回顾 | 6 87 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 : | | | 最高价：最低价：收盘价：涨跌 深跌幅 | | | | 成交量:持企量 持企量变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is in a state of continuous volume contraction and low volatility, with pro - cyclical sectors showing a structural upward trend. For different futures products, there are various trends and influencing factors, including macro - economic data, policy expectations, and supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][4]. - The bond market has a fragile trading sentiment, with ultra - long bonds leading the decline. The market is affected by expectations of monetary and fiscal policies, as well as institutional behaviors [5][6][7]. - The precious metals market lacks clear direction due to a dull macro - news background. Gold is oscillating at a high level, while silver is in a corrective phase [8][9][11]. - The shipping index of container transportation to Europe is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern, with the spot market stabilizing and the peak - season expectation slightly recovering [12]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different market situations. For example, copper prices are strongly supported, while alumina is expected to have limited short - term decline space [17][19]. - In the black metals sector, steel mills are reducing production, and the iron ore market is expected to oscillate. Coke and coking coal markets are facing supply - demand imbalances and price fluctuations [49][52][60]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different outlooks. For example, the soybean meal market is waiting for the USDA report, and the pig market is in a tug - of - war between upstream and downstream [64][66]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products such as PX, PTA, and short - fibers have different supply - demand relationships and price trends [82][84][86]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: A - share major indices were narrowly oscillating. The CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. rose, while the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose [2][3]. - News: Domestically, the market regulatory authority issued a standard for take - out platform services. Overseas, the Bank of Japan officials made statements about monetary policy [3][4]. - Capital flow: A - share trading volume decreased by over 100 billion yuan, and the central bank had a net cash withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan [4]. - Operation suggestion: Be cautious and wait and see in the short term. Consider a bull spread of put options on the CSI 1000 when there are pull - backs [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed down across the board, with the 30 - year contract leading the decline. Bond yields generally rose [5][6]. - Capital flow: The central bank had a net cash withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan, and the inter - bank market liquidity remained loose [6]. - Operation suggestion: Temporarily wait and see. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees. Consider participating in varieties within 10 - year if the market sentiment improves. The curve strategy may tend to steepen [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: As of the week of November 29, US employment data showed a pattern of low lay - offs and low recruitment. Gold oscillated at a high level, while silver corrected. Platinum and palladium also declined [8][9]. - Outlook: Gold may face resistance at high levels, and short - term trading can consider selling out - of - the - money put options. Silver may see a strong short - term price trend, but attention should be paid to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and inventory reduction. Platinum is expected to oscillate upward in the medium - to - long term [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index to Europe - Index: As of December 1, the SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index declined [12]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different situations [12]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated, and the spot market stabilized. It is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: Copper prices rose, and the discount of electrolytic copper increased. The overall trading was poor [13]. - Macro: The US manufacturing PMI was in a contraction range, and the ADP employment data was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts [13]. - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate was at a low level, and the 2026 long - term premium proposed by Codelco was significantly higher. The production of electrolytic copper in November increased [14][15]. - Demand: The weekly operating rates of copper rod processing decreased, but the downstream demand showed strong resilience [16]. - Inventory: LME and COMEX copper inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased [16]. - Logic: With the significant increase in LME cancelled warrants, copper prices are strongly supported. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction will support the upward movement of the bottom price [17]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips, with the main support level at 88,500 - 89,500 [17]. Alumina - Spot: Alumina prices were stable or slightly declined, and the supply pattern was gradually becoming looser [18]. - Supply: In November, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina decreased slightly month - on - month, mainly due to the phased production reduction in the north [18]. - Inventory: Alumina inventories increased [19]. - Logic: The market is in a state of high supply, high inventory, and cost support. It is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [19]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2,575 - 2,775 yuan/ton, with limited short - term decline space [19]. Other Non - Ferrous Metals Similar analysis methods are used for other non - ferrous metals such as aluminum, zinc, tin, etc., considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [20][28][33]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: Steel prices were stable, and the basis of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed differently [47]. - Cost and profit: The cost of coking coal and coke decreased, and steel mill profits slightly recovered [48]. - Supply: Iron ore production increased slightly year - on - year, and steel production decreased slightly [48]. - Demand: Domestic demand was weak, and exports remained at a high level. The apparent demand in December was expected to decline seasonally [49]. - Inventory: Steel inventories decreased [49]. - View: Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Consider a long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage [49]. Iron Ore - Spot: Iron ore prices declined [50]. - Futures: The main iron ore futures contract declined slightly [50]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties changed [50]. - Demand: Steel mill production reduction continued, and iron ore demand decreased [51]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the port arrival volume decreased [51]. - Inventory: Port inventories increased, and steel mill inventories decreased [52]. - View: Iron ore futures are expected to oscillate in the range of 750 - 820 [52]. Coking Coal and Coke Similar analysis methods are used for coking coal and coke, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [54][57]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Spot market: Domestic soybean meal prices were stable or slightly declined, and trading volume decreased [61]. - Fundamental news: Analysts expected changes in US soybean export sales, and the soybean sowing progress in Brazil was high [61][62]. - Market outlook: The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to domestic soybean procurement [64]. Other Agricultural Products Similar analysis methods are used for other agricultural products such as pigs, corn, and sugar, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and policy impacts [65][67][70]. Commodity Futures - Energy and Chemicals PX - Spot: PX prices continued to correct, and the market trading atmosphere was average [82]. - Profit: PX profit margins changed [82]. - Supply - demand: PX supply may contract in the first quarter, and demand was relatively strong [82]. - Market outlook: PX is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [82]. Other Energy and Chemical Products Similar analysis methods are used for other energy and chemical products such as PTA, short - fibers, and ethylene glycol, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [83][86][89].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The A - share market on December 4, 2025 showed mixed trends among the three major indexes, with shrinking trading volume. Different futures varieties had various price movements influenced by supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and macro - economic conditions [1]. - Each futures variety has its own supply - demand characteristics. For example, the supply of some varieties is affected by production, imports, and inventory, while demand is influenced by downstream consumption and market sentiment [4][6]. 3) Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On December 4, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.06% to 3875.79, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.40% to 13006.72, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.01% to 3067.48. The trading volume of the two markets was 1549 billion yuan, a decrease of 121 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index oscillated and closed at 4546.57, up 15.52 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The average profit per ton of coke improved due to upstream and downstream concessions. Supply increased slightly, while demand weakened seasonally. Total inventory remained basically flat. The coke weighted index closed at 1704.6 on December 4, up 33.6 [2][4]. - Coking Coal: There is a seasonal production reduction expectation at the end of the year. In December, domestic supply is expected to decline while imports remain stable. The coking coal weighted index closed at 1143.8 yuan on December 4, up 21.0 [3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract oscillated downward on December 4. As of November 30, sugar production and sales in Guangxi and Yunnan showed different trends [4]. Rubber - Affected by increased raw material supply and a decline in passenger car retail data, the Shanghai Rubber futures contract oscillated downward on December 4. In November, the national passenger car retail volume decreased by 7% year - on - year [6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, the CBOT soybean futures price rose slightly on December 4. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the inventory is high. The M2605 contract closed at 3046 yuan/ton on December 4, down 0.25% [6]. Live Pigs - The LH2601 contract closed at 11385 yuan/ton on December 4, down 0.91%. The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with increased supply from large - scale pig farms and slow - growing demand [6]. Palm Oil - The main palm oil contract continued to oscillate downward on December 4. The P2601 K - line closed as a doji. The import price inversion of palm oil has narrowed [6]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai Copper price reached a record high on December 4, driven by supply shortages and macro - economic factors. However, there is also a risk of correction. The main contract closed at 90980 yuan/ton [6]. Cotton - The main Zhengzhou Cotton contract closed at 13765 yuan/ton at night on December 4. The cotton inventory increased by 50 compared with the previous day [7]. Logs - The Log 2601 contract on December 4 opened at 768, with a low of 763, a high of 769.5, and closed at 764.5, with an increase of 273 lots in positions. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable [7]. Iron Ore - The Iron Ore 2601 main contract oscillated and closed down on December 4, with a decline of 0.63% to 794.5 yuan. The supply and demand situation led to a short - term oscillating trend [7]. Asphalt - The Asphalt 2601 main contract oscillated and rose on December 4, with a gain of 1.06% to 2952 yuan. The supply increased, and the inventory decreased, but the demand was suppressed [7]. Steel - On December 4, rb2605 was reported at 3175 yuan/ton, and hc2605 was reported at 3332 yuan/ton. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the steel price showed a narrow - range adjustment [7]. Alumina - The ao2601 contract was reported at 2615 yuan/ton on December 4. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, and the futures price may continue to be weak [7]. Shanghai Aluminum - The al2601 contract was reported at 22060 yuan/ton on December 4. The supply side is stable, and the demand side shows certain resilience [7].

来源：市场资讯 （来源：南京玛合雅） 一、【市场关注】 1、据外电消息，周三公布的一项调查显示，由于出口下滑，同时当月产量创下纪录，马来西亚11月棕 榈油库存可能升至六年半高位。作为全球第二大棕榈油生产国，马来西亚库存上升可能给基准马来西亚 棕榈油期货带来压力，目前该期货价格徘徊在近五个月低点附近。10位交易商、种植商和分析师的预估 中值显示，11月棕榈油库存预计环比增长7.78%，达到266万吨，为2019年4月以来的最高水平。毛棕榈 油产量估计为198万吨，较上月下降3%，但仍是有记录以来最高的11月产量。这一降幅比过去25年11月 平均6.8%的降幅要温和。在有利天气、劳动力供应改善以及高产新种植园的支持下，产量预计将连续 第二个月徘徊在200万吨左右。预计这将推动全年毛棕榈油产量有史以来首次突破2,000万吨。在连续两 个月增长之后，棕榈油产品出口量预计下降14.9%，至144万吨。 二、【每日豆油现货报价】 | 市场 | 品名 | 等级 | 包装方式 | RMS | 家 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1844 | 成品大豆油 | 国标一级 | 散 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - Short - term oils and fats lack driving forces, with large intraday fluctuations and overall maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term long at low prices and high - throw and low - suck range operations [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot prices and basis**: - For soybean oil, the 2601 closing price is 8254, down 32. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8514, 8534, and 8414 respectively. The basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin is 280, 260, and 160 respectively, with no change [2] - For palm oil, the 2601 closing price is 8666, down 64. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 8616, 8676, and 8776 respectively. The basis in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin is - 50, 10, and 110 respectively, with changes of 0, - 10, and 0 [2] - For rapeseed oil, the 2601 closing price is 9618, down 93. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong are 9888, 10168. The basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangdong is 270 and 550 respectively, with changes of - 10 and 0 [2] - **Monthly spreads**: - The 1 - 5 monthly spread of soybean oil is 184, down 8; that of palm oil is - 30, up 4; that of rapeseed oil is 181, down 48 [2] - **Cross - variety spreads**: - The 01 - contract Y - P spread is - 412, up 32; the OI - Y spread is 1364, down 61; the OI - P spread is 952, down 29; the oil - meal ratio is 2.91, up 0.19 [2] - **Import profits**: - For 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia with a 1 - month ship - date, the CNF price is 1051, and the disk profit is - 199. For crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam with a 1 - month ship - date, the FOB price is 1079, and the disk profit is - 941 [2] - **Weekly commercial inventories (in 10,000 tons)**: - In the 48th week of 2025, soybean oil inventory is 117.9 (last week: 118.0, same period last year: 98.2); palm oil inventory is 65.4 (last week: 66.7, same period last year: 51.7); rapeseed oil inventory is 36.8 (last week: 38.5, same period last year: 45.0) [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International market**: An institution's report shows that Argentina's 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to be 46.9 million tons, the same as the previous forecast, with a forecast range of 45.8 - 48.1 million tons. However, the early - season sowing is continuously delayed, soil moisture in the Pampas planting belt is declining, and the long - term weather outlook is bleak [4] - **Domestic market**: - **Palm oil**: As of November 28, 2025 (the 48th week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory is 653,500 tons, a decrease of 13,600 tons (2.04%) from last week. It is currently at a neutral level in the same period of history. The origin's quotes are stable, the import profit inversion has narrowed to about - 200. There are rumors of palm oil purchases today. The basis is stable with a slight decline. Short - term palm oil lacks obvious driving forces, with a ceiling and a floor, and it is recommended to continue to wait and see [4] - **Soybean oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2008 million tons, with an operating rate of 60.54%, a decrease from the previous week. As of November 28, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory is 1.1788 million tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons (0.09%) from last week. It is currently at a relatively high level in the same period of history, but the inventory inflection point has been reached. The domestic demand is average, and the trading has become lighter. As soybean arrivals gradually decrease and soybean crushing declines from the high level, the soybean oil inventory may slightly decrease, but the overall inventory is still sufficient. Short - term domestic soybean oil supply is abundant, and it is difficult to rise, lacking obvious driving forces. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now and consider lightly testing long on pullbacks [4][7] - **Rapeseed oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, with an operating rate of 0%, and the rapeseed inventory has bottomed out. As of November 28, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 368,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons from last week, still at a high level in the same period of history, but the inventory is continuously decreasing marginally. The FOB quote of European rapeseed oil is stable at around $1100, and the import profit inversion has expanded to about - 1000. The market still has the sentiment of holding back sales at high prices. The domestic rapeseed oil basis is stable with a slight decline. It is expected that the coastal de - stocking trend will continue. The market is still focused on the customs clearance speed and crushing situation after the arrival of Australian rapeseed. Overall, the rapeseed oil inventory continues to decrease marginally, which supports the rapeseed oil price. When rapeseed procurement has not been fully liberalized, it is advisable to consider high - throw and low - suck operations [7] 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term oils and fats lack driving forces, with large intraday fluctuations and overall maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term long at low prices and high - throw and low - suck range operations [9] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10] - **Options**: Wait and see [11] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, including the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and the monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [14][16]

Report Overview - Report Date: December 4, 2025 [2] - Report Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Soybean oil is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 yuan, supported by the cost of imported soybeans but with limited upside due to high inventory [8]. - For rapeseed oil, there is no new policy change. The far - month basis is weak, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread should be held. Since Australian rapeseed will arrive in December with a relatively small overall import volume, a long position can be taken on a single contract [8]. - Palm oil has many influencing factors. Bad weather in Malaysia and Indonesia, along with lower - than - expected production growth in November and possible tax cuts in Indonesia in December, may support the market in the short term. However, inventory in the producing areas is likely to continue to accumulate in November, so it should be regarded as range - bound with a resistance level around 9,000 yuan [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - East China's third - grade rapeseed oil: In December, it is OI2601 + 280; from December to January, it is OI2601 + 260. East China's first - grade rapeseed oil: From December to January, it is OI2601 + 360. - East China's first - grade soybean oil basis price: Spot is Y2501 + 260; from December to January, it is Y2601 + 270; from January to March, it is 05 + 430; from March to May, it is 05 + 350; from April to May, it is 05 + 310; from May to July, it is 05 + 230; from February to May, it is 05 + 370. - Palm oil quotes from Dongguan traders are stable with a downward trend. For example, Guangzhou Yihai's 18 - degree palm oil is 01 + 80; Dongguan COFCO's 18 - degree palm oil is 01 + 70; 24 - degree palm oil from Dongguan factories is 01 - 30; Guangdong's national standard 24 - degree palm oil is 01 + 10; 52 - degree palm oil from Dongguan factories is 01 - 200; 33 - degree palm oil from Dongguan factories is 01 + 20 [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: As mentioned in the core viewpoints, hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread for rapeseed oil and consider long positions for single contracts, and expect range - bound trading for soybean oil and palm oil [8]. 3.2 Industry News - According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports in November were 779,392 tons, a 39.2% decrease from October. Exports to China were 39,000 tons, an 89,000 - ton decrease from the previous month [9]. - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports in November were 1,316,455 tons, a 19.7% decrease from October. Exports to China were 129,000 tons, a 6,000 - ton decrease from October [9]. - According to AmSpec Agri, Malaysia's palm oil product exports in November 2025 were 1,263,298 tons, a 15.9% decrease from October [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, East China's fourth - grade soybean oil, and South China's 24 - degree palm oil, as well as the basis changes of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil, and some spread data and exchange rate data [13][14][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil may face a risk of weakening and falling after a short - term rebound, maintaining a near - strong and far - weak view. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures were boosted by Malaysian palm oil in the early session. - For soybean oil, the demand from the US renewable fuel industry remains resilient, but the international crude oil decline may drag down CBOT soybean oil. In the domestic market, the short - term market may be dragged down, but the import cost of soybeans will support the market and limit the decline of the basis. - The supply of domestic soybean meal remains loose overall, but the supply in some regions is tightening, and the basis has short - term support. The unilateral market is unlikely to show an upward trend, and it is expected to maintain a volatile pattern [1]. Pig Industry - The supply - side pressure may be less than previously expected, but the demand lacks highlights. The price of pigs is expected to maintain a volatile and weak structure. The strategy of inter - month reverse arbitrage can continue to be held, and the unilateral price is expected to continue to bottom out [3]. Meal Industry - The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern, but the supply in some regions is tightening, providing short - term support for the basis. It is difficult to see an upward trend in the unilateral market. The market should continue to focus on domestic purchases of US and Brazilian soybeans, and soybean meal is expected to maintain a volatile trend with light short - term trading [6]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - In the short term, the futures price is strong and hits a new high due to tight supply and strong spot prices. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of corn supply and inventory changes. If they recover, it will limit the price increase space [8]. Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures closed lower, and the raw sugar remains in a weak trend. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend [12]. Cotton Industry - In the short term, the cotton price will fluctuate within a range. ICE cotton futures closed slightly lower, supported by the weakening US dollar. In the domestic market, the purchase price of seed cotton is falling, and Zhengzhou cotton faces hedging pressure, but the support below is still strong [13]. Egg Industry - The supply pressure is expected to ease marginally, but overall pressure still exists. The market trading is light, and the terminal consumption is weak. The futures price is expected to maintain a weak pattern at the bottom [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8620 yuan/ton, the futures price of Y2601 is 8286 yuan/ton, and the basis is 334 yuan/ton. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong is 8720 yuan/ton, the futures price of P2601 is 8730 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 10 yuan/ton. The盘面 import cost in Guangzhou Port in January is 9195.1 yuan/ton, and the盘面 import profit is - 465 yuan/ton. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 10050 yuan/ton, the futures price of Ol601 is 9711 yuan/ton, and the basis is 330 yuan/ton [1]. Pig Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the main contract of live pigs is 11925 yuan/ton, the price of the January contract is 11490 yuan/ton, and the price of the May contract is 11925 yuan/ton. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions such as Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan range from 11100 - 12410 yuan/ton. The sample slaughter volume increased by 0.25% to 210037, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.38% to 18.21 yuan/kg, and the weekly price of piglets decreased by 2.86% to 17.00 yuan/kg [3]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 3060 yuan/ton, the futures price of M2601 is 3046 yuan/ton, and the basis is 14 yuan/ton. The盘面 import profit for Brazilian soybeans in February is 53 yuan/ton. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2400 yuan/ton, the futures price of RM2601 is 2408 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 8 yuan/ton. The盘面 import profit for Canadian rapeseed in January is 670 yuan/ton [6]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - **Corn**: The price of the January contract is 2259 yuan/ton, the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port is 2300 yuan/ton, and the basis is 41 yuan/ton. The north - south trade profit is 59 yuan/ton, and the import profit is 352 yuan/ton. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the January contract is 2562 yuan/ton, the spot price in Changchun is 2590 yuan/ton, and the basis is 28 yuan/ton. The profit of Shandong starch is 1 yuan/ton [8]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the January contract is 5366 yuan/ton, the price of the May contract is 5297 yuan/ton, and the price of ICE raw sugar is 14.92 cents/pound. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming are 5420 yuan/ton and 5400 yuan/ton respectively. The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sales increased by 9.17% to 1048.00 million tons [12]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the January contract is 13780 yuan/ton, the price of the May contract is 13750 yuan/ton, and the price of ICE US cotton is 64.45 cents/pound. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton is 14862 yuan/ton, and the CC Index is 15005 yuan/ton. The commercial inventory increased by 24.2% to 363.97 million tons, and the industrial inventory increased by 4.9% to 93.14 million tons [13]. Egg Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the January contract is 3138 yuan/500KG, and the price of the February contract is 3052 yuan/500KG. - **Spot Market**: The egg price in the producing area is 3.05 yuan/jin, the egg - to - feed ratio is 2.32, and the breeding profit is - 27.35 yuan/feather. The theoretical in - laying hen inventory in December is expected to decline [15].

关注美国生物柴油政策 近期，市场担忧洪水影响马来西亚及印尼棕榈油产量，美国环保局澄清2026年及2027年生物柴油合规义务量 下降的传闻，棕榈油价格出现反弹。在印度2026年斋月前，棕榈油仍然具有价格优势。尽管需求端支撑棕榈 油价格反弹，但是持续上涨还需要生物柴油及减产周期表现配合。 上半年，机构预估今年马来西亚棕榈油产量为1950万吨，略高于2024年的1934万吨。然而，从6月开始，马来 西亚棕榈油产量持续维持较高增速，进入减产周期的10月也保持增长，市场预估今年马来西亚棕榈油产量有 望突破2000万吨。另外，马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）10月报告显示，马来西亚棕榈油累库超预期。进入11 月，马来西亚棕榈油出口降幅不断扩大，印度和中国等国采购放缓。印尼能矿部公布的数据显示，截至11月 初，年内印尼生物柴油累计分销量为122.5亿升，而2025年全年目标为156亿升，如果保持当前分销速度，全年 目标将难以完成。 9月，印尼棕榈油产量环比下降22.45%，至429.8万吨，受9月工作日天数少的因素影响；1—9月，累计产量同 比增加440万吨。9月，印尼上调出口关税接近80美元/吨，导致当月棕榈油出口量环比下降 ...

第二部分 基本面分析 研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 12 月 03 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | | | | | | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | 2025/12/3 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | 品种 2601收盘价 | | 涨跌 | | 各品种地区现货价 | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8286 | (2) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8546 | | | | 8566 | 8446 | | 280 | -10 | 260 | -10 | 160 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8730 | 10 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8680 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodities, presenting market conditions, influencing factors, and future outlooks for each. It suggests different trading strategies based on the characteristics of each sector, such as short - term trading, long - term investment, and arbitrage opportunities [1] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share market declined with reduced trading volume on Tuesday. Major indices and four major stock index futures contracts all fell. There are preparations for commercial real - estate REITs and new regulations on infrastructure REITs. A - share market trading volume decreased, and there was a net capital withdrawal. Short - term strategies include lightly selling December put options and gradually building long - spread positions on dips [2][3][4] - **Treasury Futures**: Treasury futures closed down across the board, with bond yields generally rising. The central bank's bond - buying scale was less than expected, and the bond market sentiment was weak. Although there was a net capital withdrawal in the open market, the inter - bank funds were still relatively loose. It is recommended to reduce left - side operations, temporarily wait and see, and pay attention to the implementation of the bond - fund redemption fee new regulations. Also, consider the positive - spread strategy for the 2603 contract [5][6] Precious Metals - **Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium**: Global central banks' expectations of monetary easing have decreased. Gold weakened, while silver continued to rise due to tight inventory. Platinum was dragged down by gold, and palladium rose due to industrial support. In the long - term, the bull market in precious metals is expected to continue, but there are short - term fluctuations. Different trading strategies are recommended for each metal [7][9][10] Shipping Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European line index and related routes' indices declined. The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends. The futures market is expected to be volatile in the short term [11][12] Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the spot premium stabilized. There are concerns about potential supply shortages, and copper prices are expected to remain high in the long - term. Short - term trading should focus on December interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and pay attention to support levels [12][13][16] - **Alumina**: The visible inventory continued to increase, and the market supply was still abundant. The price is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation, and the main contract's reference range has shifted downwards [17][18][19] - **Aluminum**: Driven by both macro and micro factors, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong in the short - term. It is necessary to pay attention to the Fed's monetary policy and domestic inventory reduction [19][20][21] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand maintains resilience. The price is expected to have strong short - term performance, and an arbitrage strategy can be considered [21][22][24] - **Zinc**: The supply reduction expectation provides support, but the spot trading is dull. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the TC inflection point and refined - zinc inventory changes [24][25][27] - **Tin**: There are disturbances on the supply side, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and buy on dips, while paying attention to macro changes [27][29][31] - **Nickel**: The price is oscillating within a range, and the upward driving force is limited due to fundamental pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [31][32][33] - **Stainless Steel**: The price oscillated slightly higher, but the fundamental pressure has not improved significantly. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to steel mills' production - cut implementation and nickel - iron prices [33][34][36] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is oscillating, and market differences may increase in the future. It is recommended to wait and see, as the market faces issues such as large - scale factory resumption and off - season demand [37][38][40] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price opened lower and fell. The supply is expected to exceed demand in December, and it is recommended to wait and see in the futures market and take profit on put options [40][41][42] - **Industrial Silicon**: The demand is poor, and the futures price oscillated downwards. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the price range is estimated [43][44][44] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel mills are reducing production. The steel price is expected to oscillate within a range, and a long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage strategy can be considered [45][46][47] - **Iron Ore**: The shipping volume increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased. The iron - ore price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the operating range is given [48][50][51] - **Coking Coal**: The price of domestic coking coal decreased, and the price of Mongolian coal stabilized. The futures price rebounded after an oversold situation. It is recommended to view it as an oscillation and consider an inverse - spread strategy [52][53][55] - **Coke**: The first - round price cut in December has been implemented, and the port trading price has declined. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and an inverse - spread strategy is recommended [56][57][58] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The market lacks guidance, and both domestic and international markets are mainly oscillating. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to China's soybean - purchasing trends [59][60][61] - **Pigs**: The spot price pressure remains, and the month - to - month inverse - spread position can be held. The pig price is expected to oscillate weakly [63][64][64] - **Corn**: The spot price shows a differentiated trend, and the futures price is oscillating. It is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm of corn supply [65][66][66] - **Sugar**: The raw - sugar price is in a bearish pattern, and the domestic sugar price is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to maintain a bottom - oscillation mindset [67][68][70] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic cotton price is oscillating within a range. It is necessary to wait for the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report [70][71][72] - **Eggs**: The egg price is stable with a slight increase, but the pressure is still high. The futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [73][74][74] - **Oils and Fats**: The Malaysian palm - oil price rose, and the domestic palm - oil price followed suit. The domestic soybean - oil price is oscillating narrowly. Different outlooks and strategies are provided for each [75][76][77] - **Jujubes**: The price in the production area has weakened, and the futures price is oscillating weakly. It is necessary to pay attention to the terminal consumption during the peak season [78][79][79] - **Apples**: The demand for stored apples is average, and the sales are slow. The market situation is relatively stable [80][80][80] Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand expectation has improved, and the short - term oil price is strong. The short - term support for PX is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 7000 [80][81][81] - **PTA**: The supply - demand pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. The rebound space for PTA is limited. It is recommended to view it as a high - level oscillation and consider a low - level positive - spread strategy [82][83][83] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the processing fee is mainly compressed. The price follows the raw - material fluctuations, and the processing fee should be shorted on rallies [84][85][85] - **Bottle - Chip**: The supply - demand situation in December remains loose. The price follows the raw - material fluctuations, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. It is recommended to short the processing fee [86][87][87] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to expected device maintenance, the inventory - building amplitude in December will narrow, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose. It is expected to oscillate within a range [88][88][88] - **Pure Benzene**: The port inventory is increasing, the supply - demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds [89][90][90] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and the profit has improved, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to view it as a wide - range oscillation [91][92][92] - **LLDPE**: The overall trading is weak, and the spot price has little change. It is expected to oscillate within a range [93][93][94] - **PP**: There are many unexpected device maintenance events, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [94][94][94] - **Methanol**: The spot price is strong, and the trading is acceptable. It is recommended to short the 05MTO spread [95][95][95] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand still has pressure, and the price is expected to run weakly [95][96][96] - **PVC**: The short - term futures price has rebounded, but the supply - demand contradiction has not improved. The price is expected to remain weak at the bottom [98][98][98] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda - ash production has rebounded after a decline, and the futures price is oscillating. The glass sales have declined, and the spot price has fallen. Different strategies are recommended for each [99][100][101] - **Natural Rubber**: The overseas raw - material price has stopped rising and started to fall, and the rubber price is mainly oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see [102][104][104] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Driven by butadiene export news, the BR price has risen strongly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 10800 [104][106][106]