1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the intensification of international conflicts and changes in supply - demand factors, the prices of the three major oils (palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil) are oscillating strongly. The macro - level international conflict has led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, which in turn drives up the prices of vegetable oils. On the supply - demand side, changes in the US biodiesel policy, the unexpected inventory build - up in the MPOB report, and the increase in Indian imports have all contributed to the price increase of oils [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8436.00 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 296 yuan or 3.64%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7960.00 yuan/ton, up 174.00 yuan or 2.23%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9505.00 yuan/ton, up 195.00 yuan or 2.09% [1] - Spot prices: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8700.00 yuan/ton, up 220.00 yuan or 2.59%. In Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8200.00 yuan/ton, up 160.00 yuan or 1.99%. In Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9710.00 yuan/ton, up 200.00 yuan or 2.10% [1] 3.2 Inventory Data - As of June 13, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 84.7 million tons, a weekly increase of 3.43 million tons or 4.22%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.06 million tons or 9.66% [2] - As of June 13, 2025 (week 24), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 40.96 million tons, a weekly increase of 3.70 million tons or 9.93%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.20 million tons or 11.41% [2] - As of June 16, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans across the country was 590.592 million tons, a decrease of 5.088 million tons from June 9 [2] 3.3 Factors Affecting Prices - **Macro - level**: The Israeli air - strike on Iranian targets last Thursday led to a sharp escalation of tensions in the Middle East. International oil prices soared by more than 9%, driving up the prices of vegetable oils. If the conflict spreads to key energy infrastructure or Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, it will have a major impact on the global energy supply chain [3] - **Supply - demand level**: - **Soybean oil**: The US EPA proposed a mandatory blending of 5.61 billion gallons of biodiesel in 2026, higher than the 3.35 billion gallons in 2025 and exceeding market expectations, leading to a sharp rise in CBOT soybean oil prices [3] - **Palm oil**: The MPOB report showed less - than - expected inventory build - up. India's reduction of import tariffs on crude palm oil improved import profits, increased purchases, and boosted international market prices. India's edible oil inventory is at a multi - year low, and the relatively low price of international palm oil has prompted Indian refineries to increase purchases [3] - **Rapeseed oil**: The strong operation of ICE rapeseed has increased the cost of imported rapeseed in China. With the decline in crushing profits, domestic oil mills are adopting a wait - and - see attitude. Rapeseed arrivals are expected to decrease in the coming months, and the current low inventory of rapeseed has led to low overall operation rates of oil mills, resulting in a firm spot price of rapeseed oil [3]

油脂：能源恐慌叠加生柴利好 油脂集体大涨 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | | 뷰 | E | 数 据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 単位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 朗宗 | DCE豆油主力 | 6月16日 | 元/吨 | 7960.00 | 7786.00 | 174.00 | 2.23% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 6月16日 | 元/吨 | 8436.00 | 8140.00 | 296.00 | 3.64% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 6月16日 | 元/吨 | 9505.00 | 9310.00 | 195.00 | 2.09% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 6月13日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1068.50 | 1043.00 | 25.50 | 2.44% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 6月13日 | 美分/磅 | 5 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the China-Malaysia joint laboratory for oil processing and safety marks a significant collaboration under the Belt and Road Initiative, aimed at advancing key technologies in the oil industry and promoting sustainable development [1][2]. Group 1: Joint Laboratory Overview - The joint laboratory is the first of its kind between China and Malaysia, co-established by Jinan University and Universiti Putra Malaysia, serving as a national-level technology innovation platform [1]. - The laboratory focuses on four main research areas: oil bio-processing and safety, extraction of bioactive lipid molecules and their health effects, applications of healthy oils and functional foods, and the sustainability of the palm oil supply chain [1]. Group 2: Research Directions and Goals - The laboratory aims to transform palm oil from Malaysia into more nutritious and healthy glycerol diesters, representing the future of healthy oils, through methods like bio-processing and synthetic biology [1]. - Research will also focus on extracting active components such as beta-carotene from structural lipids to study their anti-inflammatory, anti-osteoporosis, and anti-cancer mechanisms, with plans to develop functional products [1]. - Collaboration with the School of Pharmacy at Jinan University will explore lipid bio-molecules from Malaysian medicinal plants [1]. Group 3: Bilateral Trade Context - By 2025, China and Malaysia will celebrate the 51st anniversary of diplomatic relations and the 12th anniversary of their comprehensive strategic partnership [2]. - China imports approximately 28 million tons of oils annually, while Malaysia exports about 15 million tons of palm oil, indicating a highly complementary supply-demand structure between the two countries [2].

中辉期货表示，马棕榈油5月前30日出口表现强劲，印度5月棕榈油进口环比大幅放量叠加5月30日起调 低油脂进口关税，马来B20政策试点推广等利多市场看多人气。受原油价格上涨及美生柴刺激，隔夜棕 榈油期价大幅反弹，考虑累库周期，8500元以上继续追多需注意仓位控制管理。 目前来看，棕榈油行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于棕榈油后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 6月16日，国内期市油脂油料板块多数飘红。其中，棕榈油期货主力合约开盘报8170.00元/吨，今日盘 中高位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，棕榈油主力最高触及8482.00元，下方探低8140.00元，涨幅达 3.76%。 华联期货指出，SPPOMA数据显示，2025年6月1-10日马棕产量减少17.24%。ITS、SGS和AmSpec数据 显示，马来西亚2025年6月1-10日棕榈油出口量较上月同期分别增加26.4%、32.69%和8.07%。6月的马 棕产量和出口数据需重点关注。美生柴政策大幅好于预期，利好美豆油，带动国内油脂跟涨。预计国内 油脂短期或震荡偏强。操作上，建议棕榈油09支撑位参考7800附近。 正信期货分析称，中东局势紧张导致国际 ...

期货热点追踪 原油暴涨点燃油脂市场！叠加6月上旬马棕油产量超预期下降，8000元大关是棕榈油的底部？ 相关链接 ...

Core Insights - In 2024, China's UCO (Used Cooking Oil) export volume reached a record high of 2,950.79 thousand tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 43.44% compared to 2023 [3] - The United States emerged as the largest destination for UCO exports from China, accounting for 42.94% of total exports, with a significant year-on-year growth of 51.9% [3] - The cancellation of UCO export tax rebates starting December 1, 2024, led to a sharp decline in export volumes, indicating the impact of policy changes on export decisions [3][7] Export Trends - The total UCO export volume for the first three quarters of 2024 was 2,124.54 thousand tons, reflecting a 54.63% increase year-on-year [3] - November 2024 saw a peak in UCO exports at 434.05 thousand tons, breaking previous records before the tax rebate cancellation [3] - The top six destinations for UCO exports in 2024 were the United States, Singapore, the Netherlands, Spain, Malaysia, and Indonesia [3] Market Dynamics - Following the U.S. tariff policy changes, Chinese UCO exporters shifted focus to other markets, particularly Europe and Southeast Asia, with exports to the Netherlands and Spain increasing significantly [6] - From January to April 2025, UCO exports to the Netherlands and Spain totaled 237.11 thousand tons, a year-on-year increase of 63.11% [6] - The U.S. market saw a decline in UCO exports from China, with a drop of 34.04% year-on-year in early 2025 [7] Domestic Market Conditions - The domestic waste oil market is experiencing low trading sentiment, with a 20% decrease in waste oil collection compared to the previous year [7] - The introduction of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. has led to increased pressure on domestic UCO enterprises, resulting in profit margins being compressed to a range of 50-100 yuan per ton [7] - The overall trading atmosphere in the domestic waste oil market has cooled significantly compared to 2024, with businesses adopting a cautious approach to avoid potential losses [7]

油脂产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月13日 干泽辉 Z0019938 | | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8050 | 8080 | -30 | -0.37% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期价 | Y2509 | 7394 | 7390 | 4 | 0.05% | | 某差 | Y2509 | 656 | 690 | -34 | -4.93% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | 09+270 | 09+270 | 0 | | | 合单 | | 17552 | 17652 | -100 | -0.57% | 棕榈油 | | | 6月12日 | 6月11日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8350 | 8450 | -100 | -1.18% | | 期价 | P2509 | 7904 | 7898 | 6 | 0.08% | | 某差 | P2509 | 446 | 552 | -106 | -19.2 ...

2025 年 6 月 13 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：国际油价反弹，关注 RVO 公布情况 豆油：驱动暂时不强，区间震荡 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 【宏观及行业新闻】 消息人士称，美国环保局将提议将基于生物质的柴油配额设定在 52.5 亿加仑以下。消息人士称，该 提案涵盖了 2026 年和 2027 年的混合要求。行业期待 EPA 在第 13 段中做出有关小型炼油厂豁免的决定。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 USDA：全球 2025/26 年度棕榈油产量预计为 8073.6 万吨，较上月预估上调 30 万吨。全球 2025/26 年 度棕榈油期末库存预计为 1505.1 万吨，较上月预估上调 58.8 万吨。全球 2025/26 年度棕榈油出口预计为 4594.3 万吨，较上月预估上调 30 万吨。其中，印尼棕榈油出口预计为 2400 万吨，较上月预估持平；马来 西亚棕榈油出口预计为 1610 万吨，较上月预估上调 30 万吨。 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | - ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-6-13 均重偏高，生猪近月仍有压力 油脂：马棕增产压力或边际减弱，美豆产区天气正常 蛋⽩粕：豆粕10-1月基差放量，盘面套保压力增大 ⽟⽶/淀粉：现货涨势放缓，盘面偏弱 ⽣猪：均重偏高，现货及近月仍有压力 橡㬵：反弹结束，午后快速跳水 合成橡㬵：先跌后涨，维持偏弱对待 纸浆：盘面走低，平台下破可能更大 棉花：库存偏低，后续需求较为关键 ⽩糖：新作预期宽松，糖价延续走弱 原⽊：现货松动，盘面偏弱 【异动品种】 ⽣猪观点：均重偏⾼，现货及近⽉仍有压⼒ 主要逻辑：大猪出栏，需求淡季，生猪现货偏弱，猪粮比下跌后，6月11 日进行猪肉收储，市场情绪获得提振，但当前库存均重偏高，短期仍有压 力。（1）供应：短期，生猪出栏体重下降，大猪出栏占比明显提高， 活体库存加速释放中。中期，2025年1月~4月新生仔猪数量持续增加， 按照仔猪→商品猪6个月出栏时间推算，预计三季度生猪出栏量呈递增趋 势，供应压力继续增长。长期，当前产能仍在高位，据农业部口径，全国 能繁母猪存栏在2024年底增至高点后，2025年一季度母猪产能在高位呈现 增减波动。 ...