1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the Shanghai rubber (RU) 2605 contract, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", and the reference view is "oscillation and weakening" [1][5] - For the synthetic rubber (BR) 2605 contract, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation and strengthening", the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", and the reference view is "oscillation and weakening" [1][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - Core logic: After US President Trump signaled that the war against Iran might end soon, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East quickly cooled down, and international crude oil futures prices sharply corrected from high levels, weakening the bullish sentiment in energy - chemical commodities. Rising oil prices led to an increase in inflation expectations, and the global central bank's interest - rate cut cycle might end early and be replaced by an interest - rate hike cycle, strengthening the expectation of tight liquidity. Additionally, a new rubber - tapping period is approaching. Although the Shanghai rubber futures 2605 contract showed a stable oscillation trend during the night session on Tuesday, with a slight increase in the futures price, the rebound momentum was lacking. It is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend on Wednesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Core logic: After US President Trump signaled that the war against Iran might end soon, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East quickly cooled down, and international crude oil futures prices sharply corrected from high levels, weakening the bullish sentiment in energy - chemical commodities. Rising oil prices led to an increase in inflation expectations, and the global central bank's interest - rate cut cycle might end early and be replaced by an interest - rate hike cycle, strengthening the expectation of tight liquidity. In the context of the collective weakening of energy - chemical commodities, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2605 contract showed an oscillating decline during the night session on Tuesday, with a slight decrease in the futures price. It is expected that the domestic synthetic rubber may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend on Wednesday [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year percentiles, and all - time percentiles of various stock index futures spreads, including IF, IH, IC, and IM. It also shows cross - variety ratios [1]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - The report provides the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing for various treasury bond futures spreads, such as basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads [2]. 2.3 Capital Flow and Key Seats' Position Changes Daily Report - The report shows the capital inflow and outflow of varieties and the position changes of key seats, with the vertical axis percentage calculated as net position divided by total position (unilateral) and daily position increase/decrease divided by total position (unilateral) [3]. 2.4 Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - Gold is stabilizing above the 20 - day moving average, generally maintaining a range of 5000 - 5300 dollars. One should be cautious with unilateral operations and can observe the volatility changes of observable targets. In the short term, one can sell out - of - the - money call options above 1200 yuan. - Silver may still face downward pressure under multiple factors. Attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average. In the case of converging volatility, it operates in the range of 80 - 90 dollars. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options to earn time value. - Platinum and palladium prices are generally supported by macro - financial attributes and a tight supply pattern. The industrial demand is stable and the investment demand is slightly warming. The platinum price fluctuates in the range of 2050 - 2250 dollars, and one can roll and sell out - of - the - money call options [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Spread - **IF**: The current IF spot - futures spread is - 10.76, with a 70.40% historical 1 - year percentile and 37.20% all - time percentile. The cross - period spreads also have corresponding values and percentiles [1]. - **IH**: The IH spot - futures spread is - 0.44, with a 63.50% historical 1 - year percentile and 52.80% all - time percentile. Different cross - period spreads are presented with their respective data [1]. - **IC**: The IC spot - futures spread is - 16.70, with an 80.30% historical 1 - year percentile and 57.30% all - time percentile. Multiple cross - period spreads are shown [1]. - **IM**: The IM spot - futures spread is 23.62, with a 30.00% historical 1 - year percentile and 43.10% all - time percentile. Cross - period spreads are provided [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 200/SSE 20, CSI 300/SSE 50, and others are presented with their latest values, changes, and percentiles [1]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Spread - **Basis**: The IRR of TF basis is 1.3770 (on 2026 - 03 - 10), with a change of - 0.0058 and a 16.20% percentile since listing. Other basis values for T, TL, etc. are also given [2]. - **Cross - period Spreads**: For TS, TF, T, and TL, cross - period spreads like current quarter - next quarter, next quarter - far quarter are presented with their values, changes, and percentiles [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, TF - T, etc. are provided with relevant data [2]. 3.3 Capital Flow and Key Seats' Position Changes - The report shows the net position and daily position increase/decrease percentages of seats like Morgan Stanley, UBS Futures, CITIC Futures, and Guotai Junan [3]. 3.4 Precious Metals Spot - Futures - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: The AU2604 contract closed at 1150.00 yuan/gram on March 10, up 0.88% from the previous day. Other contracts like AG2604, PT2606, and PD2606 also have their closing prices and price changes [4]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: COMEX gold, silver, NYMEX platinum, and palladium futures have their closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes on March 10 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold, silver, spot platinum, and palladium, as well as Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D and silver T + D, have their current prices, price changes, and percentage changes [4]. - **Basis**: The basis values of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract, silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract, etc., along with their changes and historical 1 - year percentiles, are presented [4]. - **Ratios**: Ratios such as COMEX gold/silver, SHFE gold/silver, NYMEX platinum/palladium, and GZFE platinum/palladium are given with their values, changes, and percentage changes [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield, 2 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield, US dollar index, and offshore RMB exchange rate have their current values, changes, and percentage changes [4]. - **Inventory and Positions**: The inventory of SHFE gold, silver, COMEX gold, and silver, as well as the positions of COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts, SPDR gold ETF, and SLV silver ETF, have their current values, changes, and percentage changes [4].

贵金属日报 2026-03-11 贵金属 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 0.98 %，报 1154.88 元/克，沪银涨 1.88 %，报 22536.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 1.86 %， 报 5198.70 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 4.79 %，报 88.57 元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.15 %，美元指数报 98.91 ； 1）美国至 3 月 6 日当周 API 原油库存-167.8 万桶，预期 138 万桶，前值 564.7 万桶，数据大 幅低于预期。美国 2 月季调后非农就业人口减少 9.2 万人，继 2025 年 10 月之后再次录得负值， 市场预期增加 5.9 万人。 2） 特朗普称，伊朗领导人十分希望谈判，相关对话存在可能；伊朗议会议长则强硬表态，伊 朗绝不寻求停火，必将回击侵略者，使其不敢再犯。据消息称特朗普政府已要求以色列停止对 伊朗能源设施、尤其是石油基础设施的进一步空袭，这是美以联合军事行动以来美方对以方的 首次明确约束，并表示打击伊朗石油设施属于最后手段，仅在伊朗率先攻击海湾国家能源设施 时方可考虑。另有消息指出伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队已开始在霍尔木兹海峡布设水雷 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the Iran - US conflict, global risk preferences are disturbed, with rising oil prices, weakened Fed rate - cut expectations, and a rapid rise in US Treasury yields. The domestic two - sessions continue moderately loose monetary and more active fiscal policies. Attention should be paid to the war situation and risk control [4]. - The economic recovery's sustainability needs observation, and there is still room for loose monetary policy. The Iran geopolitical conflict and rising inflation may put pressure on the bond market, and the bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. - Gold prices are in a narrow - range shock. Geopolitics boosts gold and silver prices in the short - term, but inflation expectations and weak US economic data suppress precious metal prices. A cautious bearish view is taken on precious metals [9]. - Due to the Middle East war, copper prices are expected to rise in the short - term, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong, zinc prices may break downward, lead prices are expected to stop falling and recover, nickel prices will fluctuate, tin prices will fluctuate widely, lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate in a range, alumina prices will fluctuate widely, stainless steel prices will rise in a shock, and casting aluminum alloy prices will remain strong [12][14][16][17][18][20][21][24][25][27]. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, iron ore prices will fluctuate, coking coal and coke prices may fluctuate or slightly rebound in the short - term and are optimistic in the long - term, glass prices will fluctuate in a range, soda ash prices will fluctuate with the coal - chemical industry, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices may have short - term rebound opportunities, and industrial silicon and polysilicon prices will fluctuate [30][32][35][38][39][40][43][46][48]. - Rubber trading should be flexible, crude oil has a bearish strategic configuration, methanol should take profit at high prices, urea should be short - allocated, pure benzene and styrene should be observed on the sidelines, PVC may rebound in the short - term, ethylene glycol may have inventory reduction expectations, PTA may have valuation increase space, PX has a good medium - term pattern, polyethylene can be short - sold on rallies, and polypropylene's long - term contradiction shifts to production mismatch [54][56][58][60][62][64][66][68][72][74][77]. - Pig prices may remain weakly stable in the short - term, egg prices may be stable with partial narrow - range adjustments, soybean and rapeseed meal prices should be observed on the sidelines in the short - term, oil prices are bullish in the medium - term, sugar prices may rebound, and cotton prices may rise if downstream starts up well [80][82][85][87][91][93]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: Iran's parliamentary speaker says no cease - fire is sought, Trump says conditional negotiation with Iran is possible; the National Internet Emergency Center issues a risk warning for OpenClaw; storage chips and precious metals rise, and some car companies try to raise prices; Industrial Foshan's 2025 revenue is 902.887 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 48.22%, and net profit is 35.286 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 51.99% [2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: IF: 6.96%/5.44%/8.68%/6.49%; IC: 6.01%/5.89%/11.20%/8.33%; IM: 13.22%/9.71%/16.30%/11.40%; IH: 0.44%/0.43%/1.63%/3.34% [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the war situation and control risks [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have different changes; China's January - February exports and imports increase, and the trade surplus is 213.62 billion US dollars; Middle East oil production cuts up to 6.7 million barrels per day; the central bank conducts 3.85 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 52 million yuan [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic recovery's sustainability needs observation, and the bond market may be pressured by inflation. It is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver rise; US API crude oil inventory is lower than expected, and US non - farm payrolls decrease; Trump and Iran's parliamentary speaker have different stances on negotiation and cease - fire, and Iran may lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Gold prices are in a narrow - range shock. Geopolitics and inflation expectations affect prices. A cautious bearish view is taken, with Shanghai gold's reference range of 1100 - 1200 yuan/gram and Shanghai silver's of 20500 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Crude oil and precious metals rise, driving up copper prices. LME and domestic warehouse inventories change, and the spot basis changes [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Middle East war provides emotional support. The copper supply is tight, and prices are expected to rise in the short - term. The reference range for Shanghai copper is 100800 - 102800 yuan/ton, and for LME copper is 12900 - 13300 US dollars/ton [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Crude oil fluctuates, LME aluminum's cancelled warrants increase, and aluminum prices rise. Warehouse inventories and spot basis change [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Middle East war affects supply, and domestic downstream production resumes. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. The reference range for Shanghai aluminum is 24600 - 25800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum is 3350 - 3500 US dollars/ton [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rise slightly. Warehouse inventories and basis change [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc industry is weak, and the Iran conflict has little impact on supply. Zinc prices may break downward and will fluctuate widely [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fall. Warehouse inventories and basis change [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead production and demand are weak, but prices are at the lower end of the shock range. They are expected to stop falling and recover [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rise slightly. Spot premiums and raw material prices change [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the medium - term, nickel prices are supported by policies. In the short - term, they will fluctuate. The reference range for Shanghai nickel is 120000 - 160000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel is 16000 - 20000 US dollars/ton [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rise. Supply is tight, and demand is in the recovery stage [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is bullish on tin, but supply and demand are marginally loose. Tin prices will fluctuate widely. The reference range for domestic tin is 370000 - 450000 yuan/ton, and for overseas tin is 47000 - 54000 US dollars/ton [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Lithium carbonate prices rise. Spot and futures prices change [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Iran situation eases, and the lithium market may range - fluctuate. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 150000 - 175000 yuan/ton [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices fall. Warehouse inventories and basis change [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Over - inventory and supply factors suppress prices. They will fluctuate widely. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2700 - 3000 yuan/ton [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rise. Spot prices and warehouse inventories change [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Market purchasing warms up, and prices are expected to rise in a shock. The reference range for the main contract is 13800 - 14500 yuan/ton [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Casting aluminum alloy prices rise slightly. Warehouse inventories and contract spreads change [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Cost and demand factors support prices, which are expected to remain strong [27]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices fall. Warehouse inventories and positions change [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices will fluctuate weakly in the short - term. The key lies in inventory digestion and demand verification [30]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices fall slightly. Warehouse inventories and basis change [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas supply is volatile, and demand is weak. Prices will fluctuate in the short - term [32]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: Coking coal and coke prices fall. Spot prices and basis change [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short - term, prices may fluctuate or slightly rebound. In the long - term, they are optimistic [35][38]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: Glass prices fall. Warehouse inventories and positions change [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Demand improves slightly, and prices will fluctuate in a range. The reference range for the main contract is 1040 - 1130 yuan/ton [39]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: Soda ash prices fall. Warehouse inventories and positions change [40]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is in a wait - and - see state, and prices will fluctuate with the coal - chemical industry. The reference range for the main contract is 1200 - 1300 yuan/ton [40]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices fall, and ferrosilicon prices rise slightly. Spot prices and basis change [41]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Middle East war affects market sentiment. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon may have short - term rebound opportunities [43]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fall. Warehouse inventories and basis change [45]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply and demand may increase in March, and prices will fluctuate or rebound [46]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: Polysilicon prices fall. Warehouse inventories and basis change [47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply and demand increase, but inventory reduction is limited. Prices will fluctuate [48]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Crude oil and butadiene prices fall, affecting rubber prices. Tire production and inventory change [50][51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Trade flexibly and set stop - losses. Consider buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [54]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices fall [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a bearish strategic configuration, do long - short operations on different oil spreads [56]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices change. Spot and futures prices change [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Take profit at high prices [58]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices change. Spot and futures prices change [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - allocate urea [60]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices fall, and styrene prices rise. Supply, demand, and basis change [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Observe on the sidelines [62]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices fall. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory change [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Prices may rebound in the short - term, but beware of risks [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices fall. Supply, demand, and inventory change [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply may decrease, and inventory may reduce. Be cautious of over - rising [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices fall. Supply, demand, and inventory change [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA may not enter a de - stocking cycle. Valuation may rise, but beware of over - rising [68]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices fall. Supply, demand, and inventory change [70][71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX will enter a de - stocking cycle in March. Valuation may rise, but beware of over - rising [72]. Polyethylene PE - **Market Information**: PE prices fall. Supply, demand, and inventory change [73]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - sell on rallies for the LL2605 - LL2609 contract [74]. Polypropylene PP - **Market Information**: PP prices fall. Supply, demand, and inventory change [75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The long - term contradiction shifts to production mismatch [77]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices vary. Market supply and demand change [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Pig prices may remain weakly stable in the short - term. Short - sell on rallies for the near - term and observe the far - term [80]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices vary. Market supply and demand change [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Egg prices may be stable with partial narrow - range adjustments. Short - sell on rallies for the near - term and pay attention to cost support for the far - term [82]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Soybean import and production data change [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Observe on the sidelines in the short - term [85]. Oils - **Market Information**: Indonesia may restart the B50 policy, and palm oil production, export, and inventory data change [86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Bullish in the medium - term [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar production data in different countries change [88][90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Sugar prices may rebound. Participate in long positions on dips [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton production, export, and inventory data change [92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Pay attention to downstream start - up. Buy on dips [93].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Gold's support level at $5000 on the 20-day moving average is crucial. It's advisable to wait for a clear trend before taking action. Observe the volatility of the target to see if it declines. In the short term, sell out-of-the-money call options above 1170 yuan [1] - Silver prices may still face downward pressure due to multiple factors. Pay attention to the support of the 60-day moving average. When volatility converges, the operating range is between $80 - $90. Sell out-of-the-money call options to earn time value [1] - Platinum and palladium will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term. Platinum prices seek support around 550 yuan, and palladium may decline to around 410 yuan. Roll and sell out-of-the-money call options [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2604 contract closed at 1140.80 yuan/g, down 11.20 yuan or -0.97% from the previous day [1] - AG2604 contract closed at 21740 yuan/ten pieces, up 101 yuan or 0.47% [1] - PT2606 contract closed at 560.50 yuan/g, down 3.45 yuan or -0.61% [1] - PD2606 contract closed at 421.50 yuan, down 6.50 yuan or -1.52% [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold main contract closed at $5181.30, up $88.00 or 1.73% [1] - COMEX silver main contract closed at $84.70, up $2.18 or 2.64% [1] - NYMEX platinum main contract closed at $2151.80 per ounce, up $23.60 or 1.11% [1] - NYMEX palladium main contract closed at $1657.00, up $7.00 or 0.42% [1] Spot Prices - London gold was at $5168.01, up $83.32 or 1.64% [1] - London silver was at $84.48, up $2.22 or 2.70% [1] - Spot platinum was at $2109.00, down $40.00 or -1.86% [1] - Spot palladium was at $1626.00, down $19.00 or -1.16% [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T+D was at 1138.46 yuan/g, down 10.10 yuan or -0.88% [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T+D was at 21350 yuan/ten pieces, up 282 yuan or 1.34% [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum 9995 was at 552 yuan/g, down 2 yuan or -0.41% [1] Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis was -2.34, up 1.10, with a 1-year historical quantile of 46.10% [1] - Silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract basis was -390, up 181, with a 1-year historical quantile of 60.60% [1] - London gold - COMEX gold basis was -13.29, down 4.68, with a 1-year historical quantile of 58.30% [1] - London silver - COMEX silver basis was -0.22, up 0.04, with a 1-year historical quantile of 34.60% [1] Price Ratios - COMEX gold/silver ratio was 61.18, down 0.55 or -0.88% [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio was 52.47, down 0.76 or -1.43% [1] - NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio was 1.30, up 0.01 or 0.68% [1] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio was 1.33, up 0.01 or 0.92% [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.15%, up 0.02 percentage points or 0.5% [1] - 2-year US Treasury yield was 3.56%, down 0.01 percentage points or -0.3% [1] - 10-year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.80%, down 0.02 percentage points or -1.1% [1] - US dollar index was 98.96, down 0.09 or -0.09% [1] - Offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9093, down 0.0091 or -0.13% [1] Inventory and Positions - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 105033, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 255952 kg, down 16769 kg or -6.15% [1] - COMEX gold inventory was 33081878, down 18415 or -0.06% [1] - COMEX silver inventory was 349145895 ounces, down 2196030 ounces or -0.63% [1] - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 16899870, down 103591 or -0.61% [1] - COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 81733733, up 498427 or 0.61% [1] - SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1073, down 2.57 or -0.24% [1] - SLV silver ETF holdings were 15762, down 47.90 or -0.30% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly influenced by the geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, with the situation in the Middle East being a key factor affecting various sectors. The conflict has led to disruptions in the supply chain, especially in the energy and shipping industries, and has also impacted market sentiment and risk preferences [89][90][125]. - The macro - economic environment is complex. The Chinese government's policies announced during the Two Sessions have certain impacts on the domestic market, and the market is also affected by factors such as the expected Fed interest rate cuts and employment data in the US [7][11]. - Different industries have different trends. Some industries are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by cost factors and seasonal factors. For example, in the metal industry, some metals face supply - demand mismatches in the short term but have good long - term fundamentals; in the energy and chemical industry, the prices of many products are affected by the rise in oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts [2][16][93]. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Copper**: In the short term, there is a supply - demand mismatch, with high production in March, inventory accumulation, and limited upward price drivers. In the long term, the fundamentals are good, and the price center is expected to rise. Attention should be paid to the CL premium and downstream resumption of work [2][16]. - **Styrene**: The supply increment in March is limited, and the supply - demand is expected to have a slight de - stocking. Driven by the rise in oil prices and export orders, the short - term trend is strong. Attention should be paid to the downstream start - up and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz [3][105]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply and demand are in a tight balance. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand will also improve marginally. The price may fluctuate greatly in the short term, and there is pressure when the price rebounds to the FOB export cost [4][62]. - **Oils and Fats**: Driven by the rise in crude oil, vegetable oils are oscillating upwards. Palm oil and soybean oil have different trends, and the market is affected by factors such as production, exports, and demand [5][80]. Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The macro situation boosts market sentiment, and the stock index oscillates and stabilizes. The market is affected by domestic policies and international geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to wait and see and keep a low position [6][8]. - **Precious Metals**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts and central bank policies, the prices of precious metals are under pressure. In the long term, the demand for precious metals is expected to increase, but in the short term, it is recommended to wait and see and take protective measures for long positions [9][11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The short - term supply - demand mismatch, high inventory, and weak upward drivers. The long - term fundamentals are good, and the price center is expected to rise. Attention should be paid to downstream resumption and overseas macro - drivers [13][16]. - **Alumina**: The spot price may rebound slightly, and the inventory is in a state of slight de - stocking. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to sell short at high prices [16][18]. - **Aluminum**: Affected by the supply crisis in the Middle East, the price volatility increases. The short - term market is cautious, and the long - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to rise [18][21]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The social inventory is decreasing, and the short - term market oscillates in a range. The key lies in the downstream resumption and order recovery [22][23]. - **Zinc**: The social inventory is accumulating, and the demand is weak in the short term. The fundamentals are good, but the price may be suppressed if the downstream production resumption is not as expected [24][27]. - **Tin**: The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the price oscillates widely. The long - term bullish logic exists, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [27][31]. - **Nickel**: The macro uncertainty is high, and the price oscillates in a range. The supply and demand are in a state of weak demand and high inventory [31][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The policy expectations are gradually released, and the supply - demand is slowly recovering. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [34][37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by macro and supply uncertainties, the price oscillates widely. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [38][41]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price is falling, and the futures price rises and then falls. The supply pressure is high, but the demand is expected to recover in March. It is recommended to wait and see [42][43]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates. The supply and demand are expected to be strong in March, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production and sales [44][46]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The price oscillates, and the demand after the festival needs to be verified. The supply increment in March is limited, and the inventory is accumulating seasonally. Attention should be paid to the export volume and the height of the apparent demand [47][49]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply pressure is prominent, and the demand recovery is uncertain. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [50][51]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is weak, and the futures price oscillates. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. The price is affected by multiple factors and is expected to oscillate [52][55]. - **Coke**: The steel mills propose to lower the price, and the futures price oscillates. The supply and demand are basically balanced in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate [56][59]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price may fluctuate greatly in the short term. Attention should be paid to exports [60][62]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price of manganese ore is rising, and the supply of manganese silicon is increasing slightly. The price is affected by the cost of manganese ore and the supply - demand of manganese silicon, and it is recommended to try short - term long positions or 5 - 9 positive spreads [63][65]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic and foreign markets oscillate at a high level, and the domestic soybean meal basis falls. The supply is relatively loose, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [66][68]. - **Pigs**: The supply pressure is high, and the price oscillates weakly. The market focuses on secondary fattening and frozen product storage [69][70]. - **Corn**: Supported by the replenishment of the middle and lower reaches, the price oscillates strongly. Attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm and policy grain sources [71][73]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price is weak, and the domestic market oscillates at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [74]. - **Cotton**: The price first rises and then falls, and the adjustment range is limited. The long - term center of gravity is expected to rise, and attention should be paid to downstream orders and weather [76][77]. - **Eggs**: The market speed is slow, and the price oscillates at a low level. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is in the off - season [79]. - **Oils and Fats**: Driven by crude oil, the price oscillates upwards. Different oils have different trends, and attention should be paid to production, exports, and demand [80][83]. - **Jujubes**: The demand is weak, and the price oscillates in a range. The market is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the inventory removal [84][85]. - **Apples**: The inventory removal progress is good, and the price continues to rise. The market is affected by production, quality, and inventory [86][88]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the price rises. The key is the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the safety of energy facilities in the Middle East. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously and set stop - loss and take - profit [89][91]. - **PX**: The supply - demand is expected to improve, and the price is strong in the short term. It is recommended to take long positions with caution and pay attention to the oil price [92][93]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand drive is limited, and the price is driven by the cost. It is recommended to take long positions with caution and pay attention to the oil price [94][96]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price follows the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the cost transmission [97]. - **Bottle Chip**: The raw material is expected to be strong, and the supply is expected to increase. The processing fee may fall. It is recommended to take long positions and pay attention to the processing fee [98][100]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand is expected to improve in March, and the cost support is enhanced. It is recommended to take a positive spread between EG5 and EG9 [101]. - **Pure Benzene**: Driven by the cost, the price is strong. It is recommended to take long positions with caution and pay attention to the oil price [102][103]. - **Styrene**: Driven by the cost, the price is strong. It is recommended to take long positions with caution and pay attention to the downstream start - up and the Strait of Hormuz [3][105]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream sells at a loss, and the market transaction weakens. The supply may shrink in the future, and the demand is warming up. It is recommended to wait and see [106]. - **PP**: The valuation is low, and the price rises strongly. The supply may decrease, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended to take profits on the PL spread [107]. - **Methanol**: Affected by geopolitical risks, the price oscillates at a high level. The supply is affected by imports, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions [108]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by geopolitical disturbances, the price hits the daily limit. The supply is increasing, and the demand is stable. It is necessary to be vigilant against the price decline when the situation eases [109][110]. - **PVC**: Affected by geopolitical disturbances, the price fluctuates emotionally. The supply is high, and the demand is normal. The price is pushed up by cost concerns [111][112]. - **Urea**: The demand improves marginally, and the price consolidates at a high level. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions and take long positions [113]. - **Soda Ash**: The macro situation boosts the sentiment, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [114][117]. - **Glass**: The downstream resumption is less than expected, and the inventory increases. It is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: Affected by the overseas geopolitical situation, the price oscillates in the short term. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by exports [118][122]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The fundamental support is limited, but the geopolitical conflict drives the BR to rise in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [122][124]. Container Shipping to Europe - The shipping price increases, and it is necessary to pay attention to the actual implementation of the price increase in the off - season. The market is affected by geopolitical conflicts and shipping capacity. It is recommended to hold positive spreads [124][125].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical risks in the stock index futures market have eased, and risk appetite has marginally recovered. The market opened higher and moved higher, with strong capital offensive willingness. Technology stocks performed strongly, and the ChiNext Index led the rise by 3.04%, while the Science and Technology Innovation Comprehensive Index rose by 3.02%. It is advisable to turn positive in operation and semi - hold IM contracts with high elasticity and high technology proportion [1][6]. - In the stock index options market, it is recommended to continue holding call options for defense. Although the market sentiment is warm, considering the deep market fluctuations and the fact that the options market is trading volatility rather than just direction, call options should be held to protect the overall portfolio from systematic risks [2][6]. - The bond market has recovered. The performance of the main contracts of treasury bond futures was differentiated. The inter - bank bond market rebounded moderately, but the 30 - year treasury bond was relatively weak. The market may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the strategy may focus on arbitrage, paying attention to the convergence opportunity of the 30 - 10Y treasury bond term spread [3][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **View**: Geopolitical risks have eased, and risk appetite has marginally recovered [1][6]. - **Logic**: Trump said the geopolitical conflict would end "soon", and the G7 meeting proposed measures to stabilize energy prices, which promoted the TACO trading and the rapid recovery of global risk appetite. Geopolitical risk mitigation led to the continued decline of energy, oil and gas, and coal, while technology stocks were strong. Multiple local governments issued incentive policies to encourage the local deployment of OpenClaw, driving the market enthusiasm and the spread of funds to hardware sectors such as semiconductors and chips [1][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Semi - hold IM contracts [6]. 3.2 Stock Index Options - **View**: Continue to hold call options for defense [2][6]. - **Logic**: The equity index was strong, but the trading volume of options decreased significantly. The option sentiment indicator (PCR) strengthened, and the implied volatility declined naturally, indicating warm market sentiment. However, due to the deep market fluctuations and the options market trading volatility, call options should be held for defense [2][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to hold call options for defense [6][7]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **View**: The bond market has recovered [3][7]. - **Logic**: The performance of the main contracts of treasury bond futures was differentiated. The inter - bank bond market rebounded moderately, but the 30 - year treasury bond was relatively weak. The uncertainties of the Middle East geopolitical situation, inflation trends, and the redemption pressure of fixed - income products are the three major risk variables. The inter - bank market funds are stable, and the central bank conducts small - scale net investment operations. As the tax period approaches, the central bank will increase the scale of reverse repurchase operations. If the Middle East situation disturbs and oil prices rise beyond expectations, inflation concerns may continue to disturb the bond market [3][7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Trend strategy: oscillate. Hedging strategy: pay attention to short - hedging at the low basis. Basis strategy: pay attention to the long - end positive arbitrage opportunity. Curve strategy: pay attention to the flattening of the 30Y - 10Y in the short term [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US-Iran situation is gradually becoming clear, and the time of the most intense war has passed, but the subsequent long - tail effect still needs attention. The rebound of global risk assets has driven the repair of stock index futures, and the long - position strategy of stock index futures can gradually increase positions [21]. - If the war can end quickly, the negative impact on the bond market from inflation will be significantly weakened, and there are not many negative factors in March, while negative factors will gradually accumulate in Q2 [25][26]. - The US private credit market may face a liquidity shock, and the US dollar index will maintain a volatile trend in the short term [15][16]. - The US stock market is under downward pressure due to the uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz and concerns about stagflation, and it is expected to operate weakly in a volatile manner in the short term [19]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different commodities have different investment suggestions, such as paying attention to buying opportunities on dips for some commodities and maintaining a wait - and - see attitude for others [22][26][35] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US existing - home sales in February 2026 were 4.09 million units, with a month - on - month increase of 1.7%. Trump signaled a willingness to end the war, but the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain. The short - term trend of precious metals is volatile, and the Middle East situation disturbs the market [10][11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - A credit fund with an asset size of $33 billion is facing a redemption of over 7%. The US private credit market may face a liquidity shock, and the US dollar index will maintain a volatile trend in the short term [13][15][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran continues to escalate. The US Energy Information Administration has raised the forecast of US oil production next year. The short - term situation in the Strait of Hormuz is uncertain, the US stock market is facing downward pressure, and it is expected to operate weakly in a volatile manner in the short term, with a wait - and - see attitude recommended [17][18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is researching and reserving a series of policies to support science and innovation. China's imports and exports in the first two months achieved good results. Trump said the war would end soon, driving the repair of the stock index. The long - position strategy of stock index futures can gradually increase positions [20][21][22]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's import and export data in the first two months exceeded expectations. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 39.5 billion yuan. If the war ends soon, there are not many negative factors for the bond market in March, while negative factors will gradually accumulate in Q2 [23][25][26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The Mongolian imported coking coal market is running strongly, but the terminal's acceptance of high - priced coal is limited. With the weakening of crude oil trading sentiment, attention should be paid to downstream replenishment [27][28][29]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's automobile exports increased in the first two months, while steel exports decreased. The steel price may be in a volatile pattern in the short term, and a volatile thinking is recommended [30][31][32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - China's soybean imports in the first two months decreased slightly. The USDA report only slightly adjusted the global soybean supply and demand. The short - term trend of soybean meal may be strongly volatile, but its supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and blind chasing of the rise is not recommended [33][34][35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The US corn exports to China were zero in a certain week. The supply and demand of corn are in a multi - factor game situation. In the short term, the market is volatile, and in the medium and long term, the price is expected to stabilize and rebound [36][37][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports increased in the first 10 days of March, and the inventory decreased in February. The short - term market is affected by the Iranian situation, and attention should be paid to the export recovery of Malaysian palm oil and Indonesia's biodiesel policy [39][40][42]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India's sugar production in a certain state increased, and Brazil's sugar exports decreased in the first week of March. The market's expectation of global sugar supply surplus has decreased, and the short - term trend of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be volatile at a low level [43][44][46]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The sales volume of some pig companies increased in February, while the sales revenue of some decreased. The pig market is under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to short the near - month contract on rebounds and pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities in the long term [47][48][49]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange issued an announcement on the lithium carbonate futures contract. A trading company signed a lithium purchase agreement. The short - term demand for lithium carbonate is supported, and attention should be paid to buying opportunities on dips [50][51][53]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The price of platinum rebounded slightly, and the price of palladium was mainly volatile. The short - term trend of platinum and palladium is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on platinum and shorting on palladium in the medium term [54][55]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The price of lead is expected to be volatile at a low level in the short term, and attention should be paid to buying opportunities on pullbacks [56][57][58]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The price of zinc is running cautiously, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and maintain the idea of positive arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets in the medium term [59][60]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - China's copper imports showed different trends in the first two months. Mongolia is seeking to renegotiate the copper mine contract. The short - term trend of copper is expected to bottom out and rebound, and it is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips and positive arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [61][63][65]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The short - term supply - demand pattern of tin is weak, and it is expected to operate in a wide - range volatile manner, with limited downward space [66][67][68]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA maintained the forecast of US crude oil production in 2026. An oil refinery in the UAE was attacked. The risk premium of oil prices has declined, and the market has returned to pricing the short - term blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [69][70][71]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of LPG is expected to fluctuate widely due to the impact of the Iranian situation and supply reduction [72][73]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The price of CEA is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and enterprises with demand can consider buying on dips [73][74][75]. 3.2.17 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The transportation department约谈ed shipping companies. The European line futures are mainly in a wide - range volatile pattern, and it is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the price adjustment of high - price shipping companies in late March [76][77][78].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-3-11 油价回落缓和通胀担忧，贵⾦属集体上 涨 黄金观点：短期或震荡运行，关注霍尔木兹海峡局势及后续滞胀交易 切换的潜在驱动 逻辑：万得数据显示，日内海内外金价均震荡上涨，COMEX黄金涨幅 超2%、突破5230美元/盎司，SHFE黄金涨幅超1%、站上1150元/千克； 主要受日内油价大幅下跌使得通胀担忧缓和、以及美元涨势暂缓等提 振。中东冲突已进入第11天，据中国新闻网和北京青年报报道，当地 时间3月9日，特朗普称他将取消一些与石油相关的制裁、以平抑油 价；并称若时机成熟，美国海军将在霍尔木兹海峡护航。同日，七国 集团财长发表声明称，各方已准备好采取必要措施，包括通过释放储 备等方式支持全球能源供应。 展望：短期黄金或呈区间震荡，需关注霍尔木兹海峡复航情况、外围 股市走向、3月11日美国2月CPI数据、3月13日美国PCE数据以及3月 17-18日联储议息会议决议等。长期我们对黄金趋势维持乐观，美元 信用弱化主线未改；若后续市场转向滞胀交易，将为金价带来阶段性 上行催化。 白银观点：或维持区间震荡运行，关注美伊冲突进展 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 10, 2026, equity index futures rose, while most commodities declined, with energy & chemicals and agricultural products falling across the board [2][9]. - China's imports and exports in RMB terms rose 17.1% and 19.2% YoY respectively in Jan - Feb 2026, showing continued steady improvement and strong resilience [34]. - Trump said he will lift some sanctions to stabilize international oil prices, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that Iran will decide when the war ends [1][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On March 10, equity index futures (IM and IC) rose 1.6%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Silver (up 7.1% with open interest decreasing 5.8% month - on - month), Platinum (up 4.3% with open interest decreasing 0.9% month - on - month), and Lithium Carbonate (up 4.2% with open interest increasing 0.6% month - on - month). The top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (down 13.9% with open interest decreasing 10.9% month - on - month), Crude Oil (down 10.8% with open interest decreasing 13.3% month - on - month), and Methanol (down 7.6% with open interest decreasing 16.2% month - on - month) [9][10][11]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Gold**: On March 10, the Gold main contract rose 0.8% to 1150.0 yuan/g (SHFE). Short - term may operate in a range - bound manner. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East persist, and China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for the 16th consecutive month. Long - term trend is optimistic as the weakening of U.S. dollar credibility remains unchanged [15][16][17]. - **Silver**: On March 10, the main contract of Silver rose 7.1% to 22758 yuan/kg (SHFE). It may remain range - bound, and the gold - silver ratio is likely to strengthen in oscillations in the short term. Short - term macro drivers are under pressure, and its own spot fundamentals are softening. Long - term trend is expected to align with gold [21][22][23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On March 10, the main contract of Lithium Carbonate rose 4.2% to 163000 yuan/ton (GFEX). Energy price increase expectations boost energy storage demand. In March, the fundamental outlook is strong, but downstream performance needs to be observed. Expect prices to stay range - bound [27][28][29]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - China's imports and exports in RMB terms rose 17.1% and 19.2% YoY respectively in Jan - Feb 2026, with total trade hitting 7.73 trillion yuan [34]. - Trump will lift some oil - related sanctions to stabilize oil prices, and the military operation against Iran will end "soon" but "not" this week [34]. - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that Iran will decide when the war ends [34]. - Israel launched an air strike on Iran's capital Tehran on March 10th, targeting local nuclear laboratories [34]. 3.2.2 Trading News - Multiple exchanges adjusted price limits, trading margin ratios, trading fee standards, and minimum opening & closing order sizes for various futures contracts on March 10, 2026 [35][39][41].