Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The current iron ore supply and demand are relatively loose. Recently, the price has rebounded due to the expectation of resuming production and replenishing inventory and the boost of the international situation. However, as the situation cools down, it will maintain a volatile trend in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the recovery of demand. The trading strategy is a low - level rebound [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - The spot price of iron ore oscillated and rebounded. As of March 9, 2026, the spot price of Karara powder was 909, up 23 from last week, and the discounted futures price was 856, up 24 from last week; the spot price of PB powder was 777, up 23 from last week, and the discounted futures price was 826, up 25 from last week; the spot price of Super Special powder was 662, up 17 from last week, and the discounted futures price was 862, up 18 from last week [7][28] Mineral Powder Spread - The spread between high - grade and medium - grade ores remained stable, and the spread between medium - grade and low - grade ores slightly widened. The spread between PB powder and Macfarlane powder slightly increased [12][15] Futures Spread and Basis - The 5 - 9 spread rebounded slightly from the low level, and the basis of the 05 contract first rose and then fell. The basis of the 05 and 09 contracts slightly declined [19] Relative Valuation - The ratio of rebar to iron ore slightly declined from the low level, and the ratio of iron ore to coke oscillated at a high level [29] Supply - From March 2nd to March 8th, the global iron ore shipment volume was 28.978 million tons, a decrease of 4.429 million tons compared with the previous period. The shipment volume from Australia was 17.532 million tons, a decrease of 1.953 million tons; the shipment volume from Brazil was 5.745 million tons, a decrease of 1.632 million tons; the shipment volume of non - mainstream mines was 10.279 million tons, a decrease of 2.033 million tons. The arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 26.099 million tons, an increase of 4.63 million tons. As of March 6th, the daily average output of iron concentrate from 186 domestic mines was 453,600 tons, an increase of 21,200 tons compared with the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate was 58.05%, an increase of 2.71%. The inventory of mine concentrates was 950,700 tons, an increase of 137,000 tons [5] Demand - In the week of March 6th, the daily average pig iron output was 2.2759 million tons, a decrease of 56,900 tons compared with the previous period. During the important meeting, the blast furnace production restrictions of steel mills in North China increased, resulting in a significant decline in pig iron output. After the production restrictions end, steel mills are expected to resume production seasonally, which will support the procurement of raw material ores [5] Inventory - The inventory of imported ores increased slightly this period, and the number of ships at the port increased by 5 to 112. The port congestion increased slightly, and the arrival volume rebounded significantly. Due to the stop - falling and rebound of the port clearance volume, the port inventory increased slightly, which put pressure on the ore price. The steel mill inventory decreased slightly, maintaining a low - inventory strategy [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - EUA is running stably for now after the EU officially approved the 2040 emission reduction target [1] - The signal strength of the strategy is 0 (0 means empty position, ±1 means bullish/bearish, ±2 means long/short) [1] - The bullish factor is that the EU officially approved the 2040 emission reduction target, aiming to reduce by 90% compared to the 1990 level and allowing up to about 5% of emissions reduction through international carbon credits [1] - There is no new bearish factor [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Latest Market Conditions - In the primary market, the auction price is 69.66 euros/ton (0.97%), and the bid - cover ratio is 2.5 [1] - In the secondary market, the EUA futures settlement price is 70.57 euros/ton (0.31%), and the trading volume is 36,700 lots (-0.17) [1] Strategy - Signal strength: 0 (0 for empty position, ±1 for bullish/bearish, ±2 for long/short) [1] Core Logic - Bullish: EU officially approved 2040 emission reduction target, reducing by 90% compared to 1990 level and allowing up to about 5% reduction via international carbon credits [1] - Bearish: No new bearish factors [1] - Other: European auto lobby groups seek further concessions on EU emission standards due to limited progress in carbon dioxide data; the International Energy Agency warned that if the crisis caused by US - Israel's strike on Iran persists, Europe and Asia will compete for scarce LNG supplies [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The tail risk of the Iran situation has risen sharply, mainly affecting crude oil, LPG, and shipping sectors, and the continuous rise in oil prices has driven oil chemicals and oilseeds, also causing concerns about inflation and economic recession [1]. - During the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, but the stock index rebounds after the Two Sessions. The A - share index has a negative average return during the Two Sessions, while the commodity index has a low sample - rising probability. After the Two Sessions, the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 lead in terms of gains and win - rates [1]. - The US GDP in Q4 2025 was lower than expected, and the February non - farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased. Rising oil prices limit the space for interest rate cuts. China's January social financing had a good start, and the February official manufacturing PMI was 49, non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5. The February CPI rose to 1.3% year - on - year, and the PPI decline continued to narrow to 0.9% [1]. - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. The non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and oil prices show an inverse correlation. Energy prices are affected by geopolitical factors, and black commodities should focus on domestic policy expectations and undervalued repair [2]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to buy on dips for stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The US and Israel launched an air strike on Iran on February 28, and Iran counterattacked. Multiple energy and production facilities in the Middle East and surrounding areas were damaged, and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz was seriously blocked. The conflict has exceeded the initial 4 - 5 - day expectation, and the US may increase troops. The UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq have cut production [1]. - The new supreme leader of Iran is Mujtaba Khamenei, and Trump threatened to take military action to seize enriched uranium. Trump said he would make a decision to end the military action against Iran at an "appropriate time" [1]. - Affected by the rising energy prices, the South Korean government is considering implementing an oil price cap for the first time in nearly 30 years, and President Lee Jae - myung said he would expand the 100 - trillion - won market stabilization plan if necessary [1]. - The 2026 government work report proposed an economic growth rate of 4.5% - 5%, a deficit rate of about 4%, a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, and the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds [1]. Commodity Analysis - The non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and oil prices are inversely correlated. The US has conditionally relaxed sanctions on Venezuelan gold trading [2]. - In the energy sector, continue to focus on the short - term evolution of the Iran situation. Rising oil prices drive oil chemicals and oilseeds. The black commodity sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and undervalued repair [2]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, buy on dips for stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [3] To - Do News - Iraq's oil production has dropped to 1.7 - 1.8 million barrels per day from about 4.3 million barrels per day before the US - Israel attack on Iran [5]. - Trump said he would make a decision to end the military action against Iran at an "appropriate time" and that it would be a decision jointly made with Netanyahu [5]. - In February, China's CPI rose 1.3% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 1.8%. The PPI fell 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [5]. - Iran's Experts Assembly elected Mujtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader [5]. - South Korean President Lee Jae - myung said he would expand the 100 - trillion - won market stabilization plan if necessary and called for measures to deal with foreign exchange and market fluctuations and implement oil product price limits [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by rising oil prices due to the Iran conflict, inflation trading has resurfaced. LPR remains unchanged. Meanwhile, the expectation of Fed rate - cuts continues, and the increasing uncertainty of global trade adds uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price Indicators: China's monthly CPI has a 1.00% month - on - month increase and a 1.30% year - on - year increase; China's monthly PPI has a 0.40% month - on - month increase and a - 0.90% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Monthly Economic Indicators: Social financing scale is 449.11 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 6.99 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 1.58%; M2 year - on - year growth rate is 9.00%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 5.88%; Manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% and a decline rate of 0.61% [10]. - Daily Economic Indicators: The US dollar index is 98.72, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.14 and a decline rate of 0.14%; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.8864, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.034 and a decline rate of 0.49%; SHIBOR 7 - day rate is 1.42, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.78%; DR007 is 1.45, with a day - on - day increase of 0.03 and a growth rate of 2.31%; R007 is 1.55, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.13 and a decline rate of 7.46%; The yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) for 3M is 1.51, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.33%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.33% [11]. 3.2 Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On March 9, 2026, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.46 yuan, 105.98 yuan, 108.32 yuan, and 111.52 yuan respectively, with price changes of - 0.04%, - 0.14%, - 0.21%, and - 1.11% respectively [3]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was 0.040 yuan, 0.133 yuan, 0.009 yuan, and 0.350 yuan respectively [3]. 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - On March 9, 2026, the central bank conducted a 485 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.322%, 1.423%, 1.475%, and 1.539% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. 3.4 Spread Overview - The report presents various spread trends, including the inter - term spread trends of treasury bond futures varieties, and the spread between spot - bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads such as (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [7]. 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [43][44]. 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [46][55]. 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [56][58]. 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [61][64]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral Strategy: With the decline of repurchase rates, treasury bond futures prices fluctuate [4]. - Arbitrage Strategy: Pay attention to the decline of the 2606 basis [4]. - Hedging Strategy: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can moderately hedge using far - month contracts [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Wait - and - see [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound under pressure, callback to go long [1] - Polysilicon: Low - level oscillation [1] - Lithium carbonate: Rebound, buy on dips [1] 2. Report's Core Views - Geopolitical factors such as the Iran situation and Trump's statements have a significant impact on the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The US dollar's weakening provides support for gold, while the uncertainty of the Iran situation makes it difficult to participate in the silver market in the short term. For non - ferrous metals, factors like supply - demand relationships, production capacity, and inventory changes influence price trends [1][3]. - The long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged, with short - term support around 1120. Silver should pay attention to support around 20000. For copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and lithium carbonate, there are corresponding long - term and short - term investment strategies based on market conditions [1][4][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market performance**: SHFE gold fell 0.07% to 1140, COMEX gold fell 0.63% to 5149. SHFE silver rose 0.07% to 21547, COMEX silver rose 3.13% to 87. Spot gold fell 0.67% to 5137.24 dollars per ounce [2]. - **Basic logic**: Trump's statement about the end of the war led to a weakening of the US dollar, and the gold market has "triple shocks" but the four underlying logics for the long - term bull market remain unchanged. China's central bank has been increasing its gold reserves for 16 consecutive months [3][4]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Long - term holding for gold, wait - and - see for silver, pay attention to geopolitical situations and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [1][4] Copper - **Market performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 101160 yuan per ton, up 1.28%. LME copper was at 12922 dollars per ton, up 0.49%. COMEX copper was 590.05 dollars per pound, up 1.08% [5]. - **Industrial logic**: Global copper mine supply remains tight, copper concentrate processing fees are at a record low. Although inventory has increased significantly, the expected effective circulating inventory is tight, and the resource - security premium for copper is rising [6]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Buy on dips when there is a callback, industry buyers should purchase as needed, and sellers should wait for the price to rebound and sell at the upper resistance level. Bullish on the medium - to - long - term trend of copper [7] Zinc - **Market performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 24425 yuan per ton, up 0.41%. LME zinc was 3326.5 dollars per ton, up 0.11% [8]. - **Industrial logic**: Global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026, smelter profits are inverted, and the supply side is weakening month - on - month. The demand side is weak, and inventory is accumulating [9]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold long positions cautiously in the short term, buy on dips on medium - to - long - term callbacks. Pay attention to the demand situation and policy stimuli [10] Aluminum - **Market performance**: The closing price of LME aluminum was 3385.5 dollars per ton, down 1.33%. The Shanghai aluminum main contract was 24950 yuan per ton, up 0.95% [11]. - **Industrial logic**: The short - term supply disturbance in the Middle East continues, inventory is a major factor suppressing prices, and downstream processing enterprises are gradually resuming production. For alumina, the overseas bauxite supply is sufficient, and the industry's oversupply pattern is difficult to reverse fundamentally [13]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Go long on dips in the short term for Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventory, and the main operating range is [23500 - 25500] [14] Nickel - **Market performance**: The closing price of LME nickel was 17444 dollars per ton, down 0.03%. The Shanghai nickel main contract was 136520 yuan per ton, down 0.45%. The stainless - steel main contract was 14105 yuan per ton, down 0.70% [15]. - **Industrial logic**: The expectation of tightening nickel ore supply is weakened, the domestic pure - nickel social inventory remains at a high level, and stainless - steel inventory has increased significantly, suppressing prices [17]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Go long on dips for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless - steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [130000 - 150000] [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market performance**: The main contract LC2605 opened low and went high, with an intraday amplitude of 15%, breaking through the 160,000 - yuan mark [19]. - **Industrial logic**: The supply - demand pattern remains tight, inventory has decreased for 7 consecutive weeks, and the cost of lithium carbonate will increase in the long term. Although the inventory - reduction rate has weakened recently, there is still a rigid support at the lower price [20]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Buy on dips in the range of [156000 - 170000] [21]

流动性日报 | 2026-03-10 市场流动性概况 2026-03-09，股指板块成交10186.12亿元，较上一交易日变动+50.10%；持仓金额16367.13亿元，较上一交易日变动 +6.32%；成交持仓比为62.26%。 国债板块成交4959.75亿元，较上一交易日变动+85.25%；持仓金额8767.59亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.62%；成交 持仓比为56.14%。 基本金属板块成交9376.51亿元，较上一交易日变动+60.55%；持仓金额6643.33亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.03%； 成交持仓比为171.83%。 贵金属板块成交9210.30亿元，较上一交易日变动+24.24%；持仓金额4881.38亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.81%；成 交持仓比为220.37%。 能源化工板块成交12519.86亿元，较上一交易日变动-15.25%；持仓金额5890.13亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.86%； 成交持仓比为171.85%。 农产品板块成交7838.02亿元，较上一交易日变动+104.99%；持仓金额6736.68亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.50%；成 交持仓比为113.13%。 黑色建材 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report downgrades the previous overweight recommendation for stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals to equal - weight in the short term, and relatively recommends the allocation of TS and TF [1] Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical conflict stage affects market expectations of inflation and the economy, and the Fed will respond when long - term inflation expectations change. It is recommended to use the neutral scenario as the benchmark for asset portfolio construction and manage the positions of risk assets in the short term [1] - The market's policy expectations for the first half of the year will gradually converge, and the focus will shift to the verification of real - world data [1] - Stock indices may enter a period of shock adjustment, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected by the unfalsifiable expectation of tightened monetary conditions [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance Summary - Most domestic commodity futures markets closed higher, with shipping futures leading the gains, and energy, chemical, and other sectors also rising. Some varieties such as crude oil and asphalt had significant increases. However, basic metals and precious metals mostly declined [1] Overseas and Domestic Macroeconomic Analysis - Overseas: The stage of geopolitical conflict is crucial for the market's inflation and economic expectations, and the Fed will act when long - term inflation expectations change. It's too early to discuss the duration of the war, and a neutral scenario is recommended for asset allocation [1] - Domestic: After the release of the report, the market's policy expectations for the first half of the year will gradually converge, and the focus will shift to data verification [1] Asset Views - Short - term: Downgrade the previous overweight recommendation for stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals to equal - weight, and relatively recommend the allocation of TS and TF. Stock indices may enter a shock adjustment period, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected by monetary tightening expectations [1] Sector - by - Sector Analysis - **Financial**: Stock index futures, index options, and bond futures are expected to be in a shock state. Risk factors still exist, and attention should be paid to factors such as incremental funds and AI enterprise credit risks [4] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate. Inflation expectations suppress interest - rate cut expectations, and attention should be paid to US fundamental data, Fed policies, and geopolitical trends [4] - **Shipping**: The freight rate of the European line in the second half of March stopped falling and rose, and the Middle East route is seeking alternative routes. The market is expected to be slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to geopolitical events and shipping traffic [4] - **Black Building Materials**: Affected by geopolitical risks, costs are rising. Most varieties are in a shock state, and attention should be paid to factors such as mine production and policy dynamics [4] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Oil price fluctuations dominate the market, and most basic metals are in a wide - range shock. Some varieties such as aluminum and nickel are expected to be slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances and policy changes [4] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Geopolitical situations may lead to production cuts in oil - producing countries, and aromatics have a demand for price increases. Most varieties are expected to be in a shock state, and attention should be paid to factors such as oil prices and geopolitical events [4][5] - **Agriculture**: Geopolitical conflicts disrupt the market, and agricultural products fluctuate greatly. Most varieties are in a shock state, and attention should be paid to factors such as geopolitical events, weather, and policies [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The current market sentiment is high, and the monthly spread valuation is also high. Once there is negative news, there may be a significant decline. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. Additionally, focus on fuel costs, the congestion level of the Singapore port, and the possible release of a price increase notice for April by shipping companies this week [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2604 closed at 2236.4 with an 18.19% increase; EC2605 at 2257.0 with a 19.27% increase; EC2606 at 2494.0 with a 15.39% increase; EC2607 at 2590.4 with a 14.14% increase; EC2608 at 2422.6 with an 11.13% increase; EC2609 at 1742.3 with a 10.20% increase; EC2610 at 1617.2 with a 10.84% increase; EC2612 at 1861.0 with a 9.70% increase [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of each contract vary, with some showing a decrease in open interest [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of EC2604 - 2606, EC2604 - 2605, and EC2606 - 2610 have different changes compared to previous days and weeks [2]. Spot Market Information - **Spot Price**: The spot price of the European line on March 9, 2026, was 1545.46 points, with a 5.61% increase from the previous period. The SCFI (European line) on March 6, 2026, was 1452 US dollars/TEU, with a 2.25% increase [2]. - **Online Quotes**: OOCL quoted 2800, YML quoted 2700. The current average quotes are around 1750 points on the disk, and attention should be paid to further adjustments [3]. News and Events - **US - Iran Tensions**: The US President Trump stated that they are "far from" sending troops to Iran. G7 finance ministers reached a consensus not to release oil war reserves. Iran plans to charge "security fees" on some ships in the Persian Gulf, and Trump threatened to strike Iran if it blocks oil flow [4]. - **Oil Price and Military Action**: Trump said that military action against Iran will end soon and the oil price increase is lower than expected [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report anticipates that after the downward impact of news on oil prices, they will still maintain an upward trend. It suggests investors control their positions and try to enter the market with long - positions at low prices in the 660 - 710 range for SC2604, while waiting for opportunities to enter short - positions at high prices in the long - term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - **Crude Oil 2604 Analysis**: - **Fundamentals**: Trump predicts the end of the Middle - East war, but Iran shows no sign of backing down. G7 is ready to take measures but doesn't commit to using emergency reserves. Trump will exempt some sanctions to ensure oil supply. The chaos in the Middle - East has disrupted the global oil supply chain, and Saudi Arabia has started to cut production [3]. - **Basis**: On March 9, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $125.31 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $106.16 per barrel, with a basis of 62.85 yuan/barrel, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending February 27 increased by 5.647 million barrels (expected 2.2 million barrels), EIA inventory increased by 3.475 million barrels (expected 2.305 million barrels), and Cushing area inventory increased by 1.564 million barrels. As of March 6, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 2.557 million barrels, unchanged [3]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of March 3, the main long - positions in WTI and Brent crude oil both decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: Trump's remarks on the Middle - East war have hit oil prices, but due to Iran's strong attitude, low shipping efficiency, and supply shortages, oil prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to try long - positions at low prices in the 660 - 710 range for SC2604 and wait for short - position opportunities at high prices in the long - term [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **Trump's Statements**: Trump said the U.S. military action against Iran will end soon, was disappointed with Iran's new leader, and will lift some sanctions to lower oil prices. He also threatened Cuba and said he would transport 100 million barrels of oil from Venezuela [5]. - **Measures to Cope with Rising Oil Prices**: The Trump administration is considering options such as releasing emergency reserves, suspending the federal gasoline tax, and having the Treasury intervene in the crude oil futures market to deal with rising oil and gasoline prices [5]. - **Production Cuts in the Middle - East**: Saudi Arabia has started to cut oil production due to the near - shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. Other OPEC countries such as the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq have also cut production [5]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The Strait of Hormuz has poor shipping conditions, and the Middle - East situation has deteriorated [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Trump intends to end the war quickly [6]. - **Market Driver**: Short - term focus on geopolitical changes, and wait for the situation to ease in the long - term to enter the market for a reversal [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil have all increased, with increases of 4.01 (4.93%), 6.35 (8.51%), 41.70 (6.68%), and 3.84 (4.68%) respectively [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, and Dubai crude oil have increased, while the price of Shengli crude oil has decreased. The increases are 6.87 (8.46%), 6.35 (8.51%), 8.79 (10.16%), and 8.77 (10.15%) respectively, and the decrease of Shengli crude oil is 0.82 (1.02%) [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API and EIA inventories have both increased in the week ending February 27, with API inventory increasing by 5.647 million barrels and EIA inventory increasing by 3.475 million barrels [3][10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of March 3, the net long - position decreased by 562 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of March 3, the net long - position decreased by 35358 [19].

报告日期：2026 年 3 月 10 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：地缘降温，动荡仍存 当前市场多空因素激烈交织。地缘冲突溢价有所回吐，但结构性风险犹存。美伊 局势仍是短期核心，美方传递"行动接近结束"及"解除部分制裁"的信号缓和 紧张情绪，隔夜油价显著回落。然而，冲突对关键航道的潜在威胁持续支撑航运 成本，欧洲航线运价上涨印证供应链担忧。与此同时，全球监管机构正积极干预 以抑制投机、防范风险，国内外交易所密集出台上调手续费、调整开仓限制等措 施，旨在为过热市场降温。国内成品油价大幅上调则传导了成本压力。其他板块， 黑色系原料端到港增加但发运下滑，呈现分化；南美大豆收割延迟与天气影响提 供农产品支撑。整体而言，地缘政治风险与强力监管引导形成博弈，市场或步入 高波动与政策市并存的复杂阶段。 重点品种：原油、黄金、甲醇 原油：夜盘油价大幅回落。特朗普表示，我认为伊朗战争已经非常彻底，几乎结 束了。美国总统特朗普表示，我们还将豁免伊朗某些与石油相关的制裁措施，在 事情明朗化之前，我会取消一些制裁。如有必要，美国海军将在时机成熟时护送 油轮通过海峡。IEA 联合释放战略石油储备展开讨论。据报道，包括美国在内的 三 ...