隔夜夜盘市场走势 1.国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 3.08%报 4798.10 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货跌 16.64%报 70.35 美元/盎司。芝商所与上期所上调黄金白银保 证金及涨跌停板限制，抑制市场流动性；同时美联储官员强调维持紧缩政策，削 弱避险需求，共同导致贵金属价格下跌。 2. 美油主力合约收跌 3.1%，报 63.12 美元/桶；布油主力合约跌 2.98%，报 67.39 美元/桶。伊朗确认将与美国谈判，缓解了市场对军事冲突导致供应受阻的担忧， 同时美国私营部门就业数据引发对经济放缓及石油需求减弱的担忧，叠加原油供 应过剩预期，共同导致油价下跌。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Date: February 6, 2026 - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Report's Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are neutral, and their futures prices are expected to fluctuate today [4][7] - The suspension of OPEC's production increase in Q1 and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices provide strong cost support for polyolefins [4][7] - The downstream demand for both LLDPE and PP is weak, and the supply-demand relationship is sensitive to marginal changes [6][8] Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended its production increase plan in Q1 2026 due to weak seasonal demand. Affected by geopolitical factors, the crude oil price is strong and volatile, driving the polyolefins with poor device profits and strong cost support to follow the fluctuations. Near the Spring Festival, the demand from the agricultural film and packaging film industries is weak. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6,750 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -27, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.4%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 403,000 tons (+54,000 tons), which is neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, showing a bullish trend [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, showing a bearish trend [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro environment and crude oil situation affect PP. PDH device maintenance is relatively high. Near the Spring Festival, the demand for plastic weaving and pipes is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6,650 (-40), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is -26, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.4%, which is neutral [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 416,000 tons (+15,000 tons), showing a relatively high level [7] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, showing a bullish trend [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish trend [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today [7] Supply-Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with the capacity growth rate reaching 20.5% in 2025E [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, with the capacity growth rate expected to be 11.0% in 2025E [16] Other Information - The report also includes data on spot prices, futures prices, inventory changes, production cash flows, and internal and external price differences of LLDPE and PP, as well as corresponding trend charts [9][10][12][17][19][21][23][25][27]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2026年2月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：美国就业数据疲软叠加AI恐慌，芝商所和上期所再上调保证金，金价回 落；美国三大股指全线收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率集体下跌， 10年期美债收益率跌9.34个基点报4.180%；美元指数涨0.34%报97.96，离岸人民币 对美元贬值报6.9409；COMEX黄金期货跌3.08%报4798.10美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货1105.76，现货1104.8，基差-0.96，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单104052 千克，增加1020千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多减；偏多 6、预期：今日关注美国2月密 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2026年2月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：Covrig Analytics:26/27年度全球糖过剩预计缩减至140万吨，低于25/26年度的470 万吨。Green Pool：预计26/27年度全球糖供应量过剩15.6万吨，低于25/26年度的274万吨。2025 年12月底，25/26年度本期制糖全国累计产糖470.18万吨；全国累计销糖157万吨；销糖率33.39%。 2025年12月中国进口食糖58万吨，同比增加19万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计6.97万吨，同 比减少12.08万吨。偏空。 利空：白糖全球产量增加，新一年度全球供应过剩。外 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-02-06 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.3 | 49.0 | 49.1 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 49.4 | 50.1 | 50.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M1:同比 | % | 3.8 | 7.2 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply side is disturbed, smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy has been liberalized. In January, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.8 percentage point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity; the overall situation is bullish [2] - The spot price is 101,445, with a basis of 465, showing a premium over futures; the situation is neutral [2] - On February 5, copper inventory increased by 1,925 to 180,575 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 7,067 tons to 233,004 tons compared to last week; the situation is neutral [2] - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward; the situation is bearish [2] - The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing; the situation is bullish [2] - Geopolitical disturbances remain, and the incident at Indonesia's Grasberg Block Cave mine is intensifying. Copper prices have reached a new high and are currently fluctuating at a high level. Attention should be paid to position control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - The fundamentals, basis, inventory,盘面, main positions, and expectations of copper are analyzed, with a comprehensive consideration of bullish, neutral, and bearish factors [2] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors include global policy easing and tight mine supply, as well as geopolitical disturbances between Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel, Fed rate cuts, and slow mine production increase and the production cut event at Freeport's Indonesian mine [3][4] - Bearish factors include the unexpected increase in US comprehensive tariffs and the fact that the global economy is not optimistic, and high copper prices will suppress downstream consumption [4] Spot and Inventory - Information on spot prices, inventory types, and inventory changes is provided, and the bonded area inventory is rising from a low level [6][13] 期现价差 - No specific content provided in the given text Exchange Inventory - No specific content provided in the given text Processing Fee - The processing fee is declining [15] CFTC - No specific content provided in the given text Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, there will be a tight balance. The China annual supply - demand balance table for copper from 2018 - 2024 is presented, showing production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data [19][21]

Report Information - Report Title: Grease Morning Report - Report Date: February 6, 2026 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei - Qualification Number: F0283029 - Investment Consulting Number: Z0010442 - Contact Information: 0575-85226759 [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of oils are in a state of shock consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil supply is stable. Sino-US relations are stalemated, the export of new US soybeans is frustrated, and prices are under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil fundamentals are neutral, and the imported inventory is stable. [2][3][4] 3. Summary of Different Oils 3.1 Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month-on-month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month-on-month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory increased by 7.59% month-on-month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, shipping survey institutions show that Malaysia's palm oil export data in January has increased by 29% month-on-month. Subsequently, entering the production reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,422, the basis is 318, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. [2] - **Market Trend**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil (Y2605) will fluctuate in the range of 7,900 - 8,300. [2] 3.2 Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report data is the same, and the report is slightly bearish with inventory exceeding expectations. January's export data has increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production reduction season. [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,032, the basis is -10, and the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. [3] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 2,200 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 46%. [3] - **Market Trend**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased. [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil (P2605) will fluctuate in the range of 8,900 - 9,300. [3] 3.3 Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same MPOB report data as above, slightly bearish with inventory exceeding expectations. January's export data has increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production reduction season. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,980, the basis is 836, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 44%. [4] - **Market Trend**: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased. [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil (OI2605) will fluctuate in the range of 9,000 - 9,400. [4] 4. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean inventory-to-sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and the palm oil tremor season. [5] - **Bearish Factors**: Oil prices are at a historically high level, domestic oil inventories are continuously increasing, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils is high. [5] - **Main Logic**: The global oil fundamentals are relatively loose. [5]

贵金属日报 2026-02-06 【行情资讯】 沪金跌 1.48 %，报 1096.14 元/克，沪银跌 9.96 %，报 19895.00 元/千克；COMEX 金跌 4.08 %， 报 4689.90 美元/盎司，COMEX 银跌 16.23 %，报 64.26 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.21 %，美元指数报 97.99 ； 周四盘面延续震荡格局，行情由单边下挫转为冲高回落的高位震荡。中长期资金借回调分批加 仓与杠杆多头借反弹有序减仓形成博弈。 上期所公告，自 2026 年 2 月 9 日（周一）收盘结算时起，黄金、白银期货的涨跌停板幅度及 交易保证金比例均在此前基础上上调 1%。另据美联社披露的 COMEX 黄金期货数据，2 月 4 日估 算成交量为 277,028 手，较前一日略有放大；未平仓合约降至 414,317 手，单日减少 5,084 手， 期货端去杠杆进程或仍在延续。 品种表现上，白银波动显著强于黄金；黄金受美元信用及美联储后续降息预期支撑，波动相对 温和。继 ADP 数据后，美国 1 月挑战者企业裁员人数达 10.8 万人，创 2009 年以来年初最高水 平；当周初 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20260206 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：海外风险偏好降幅，A 股缩量普跌 海外方面，美国开年就业走弱线索增多：①最新初请失业金人数升至 23.1 万人，预期 21.2 万人，受极端天气扰动短期跳升；②12 月 JOLTS 职位空缺降至 654.2 万个，预期 720 万个，创 2020 年 9 月以来新低，且不同规模企业普遍回落，部分反映企业在 AI 提效背景下 对新增岗位需求趋谨慎。欧洲央行 2 月议息会议如期按兵不动，其认为通胀与增长判断基本 稳定、中期通胀仍回归 2%、经济路径与去年 12 月预测一致。行长拉加德认为形势"总体平 衡"，在承认外部不确定性的同时，重申政策立场稳健，短期暂无调整必要。在就业数据走 弱与海外 AI 叙事担忧共振下，市场风险偏好持续收缩：美股普遍下跌超 1%，VIX 抬升；贵 金属再度调整，黄金跌近 4%、白银回撤约 20%；美元指数上探 98 关口，资金转向避险的美 债，10Y 利率回落至 4.17%。原定于本周五晚公布的非农数据推迟至下周三发布，重要 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Overseas macro: Kevin Warsh's nomination as a candidate for the new Fed Chair is expected to have limited impact on the market. His policy stance on quantitative tightening may be difficult to implement. The market's expectations for the US monetary policy path are unlikely to change significantly, and investors should also monitor the US-Iran situation and the US government shutdown [9]. - Domestic macro: The domestic market is expected to continue with positive policy expectations. In Q1, there is a growing expectation that policies will be intensified to achieve a good start for the economy in the 15th Five-Year Plan. The overall policy environment is favorable, which supports a bullish view on risk assets in Q1 [9]. - Asset views: Structured opportunities in portfolio allocation are emphasized. It is recommended to overweight IC and non-ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin). The domestic policy expectations, loose liquidity, and inflation recovery expectations can support the upward movement of the equity market. Treasury bonds are neutral, with better short - end opportunities but limited odds. The precious metals sector has high short - term volatility, and it is recommended to wait for volatility to decline. Non - ferrous metals are relatively strong and can be considered for right - side allocation after a pullback. Black commodities are range - bound, and crude oil has high uncertainty, so it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Price and Performance Data Index Futures and Treasury Bonds - On February 5, 2026, most index futures showed declines, such as the CSI 500 futures with a daily decline of - 1.59% and a weekly decline of - 2.9%. Treasury bond futures generally rose, with the 30 - year Treasury bond futures having a daily increase of 0.32% and a weekly increase of 0.22% [2]. Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index rose by 0.27% on February 5, 2026, and the US dollar intermediate price decreased by 25 pips. The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate decreased by 0.95 bp [2]. Interest Rates - The 10Y US Treasury yield increased by 1 bp on February 5, 2026, and the US Treasury 10Y - 2Y spread increased by 1 bp [2]. Industry Index - On February 5, 2026, industries such as consumer services, textile and apparel, and food and beverage showed increases, while industries like non - ferrous metals, steel, and machinery showed declines [4]. Domestic Commodities - On February 5, 2026, commodities such as shipping (container shipping to Europe) and fuel oil showed increases, while precious metals (silver) and non - ferrous metals (nickel) showed significant declines [5]. Overseas Commodities - On February 4, 2026, overseas energy commodities such as NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent crude oil rose, while NYMEX natural gas fell. Precious metals like COMEX gold and COMEX silver also rose [6]. 2. Sector Analysis Financial Sector - Stock index futures: The stock market closed down with shrinking trading volume, and the consumer sector strengthened seasonally. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase [10]. - Stock index options: The implied volatility showed a differentiated trend, indicating a range - bound game sentiment. The short - term outlook is range - bound [10]. - Treasury bond futures: Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include the implementation of monetary policy, risk appetite, and government bond issuance [10]. Precious Metals Sector - Gold: Geopolitical tensions eased, and the "Warsh trade" suppressed liquidity expectations. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include the US economic fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and geopolitical trends [10]. - Silver: The structural tightness in the spot market eased, and the "Warsh trade" suppressed liquidity expectations. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch are similar to those for gold [10]. Shipping Sector - Container shipping to Europe: Spot freight rates were under pressure, and shipping companies cut prices to attract cargo before the festival. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include spot market freight rate changes, geopolitical sentiment, and the risk of price wars among shipping companies [10]. Black Building Materials Sector - Steel products: Cost support weakened, and the futures market was under pressure. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot metal production [10]. - Iron ore: Hot metal production increased slightly, and inventories continued to accumulate. The short - term outlook is range - bound, with factors such as overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot metal production, weather conditions, port ore inventories, and policy dynamics to be monitored [10]. - Coke: Profits recovered, supply increased, and the demand from hot metal production provided support. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include steel mill production, coking costs, and mid - downstream restocking [10]. - Coking coal: Restocking was nearly completed, and the futures and spot markets were range - bound. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include coal mine resumption, Mongolian coal imports, and mid - downstream restocking [10]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - Nickel: There was a game between expected policies and weak reality, and nickel prices were range - bound. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase, and factors to watch include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and insufficient supply release [10]. - Tin: Market sentiment was weak, and tin prices continued to adjust. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase, and factors to watch include the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations [10]. - Copper: The US dollar index continued to rise, and copper prices were under short - term pressure. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase, and factors to watch include supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovish stance of the Fed, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery [10]. - Aluminum: Inventories continued to accumulate, and aluminum prices declined. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase, and factors to watch include macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [10]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude oil: Supply pressure remained, and geopolitics dominated the rhythm. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical situations [12]. - LPG: Chemical demand weakened, and attention should be paid to Iranian risks. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include cost - side developments such as crude oil and overseas propane [12]. Agricultural Sector - Natural rubber: Short - term support was still effective. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [12]. - Synthetic rubber: The futures market had high elasticity, and attention should be paid to the lower - bound support. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [12]. - Cotton: It was range - bound and lacked a unilateral trend before the festival. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase, and factors to watch include production and demand [12]. - Sugar: Brazilian sugar exports still had potential, and the medium - to - long - term outlook was for a range - bound decline. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound decline, and factors to watch include Brazilian port logistics, lower - than - expected northern hemisphere production, and macroeconomic fluctuations [12].