Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The latest released US ISM Manufacturing PMI in January soared from the previous month's 47.9 to 52.6, far exceeding the expected 48.5, indicating a substantial expansion in the US manufacturing sector [7][8]. - The sharp decline in precious metals and non - ferrous metals was mainly due to concerns over the overseas AI bubble and the unexpected adjustment of the Fed's replacement candidates. However, there may still be buying opportunities at relatively safe low - points, especially for copper in the long - term [9][11]. - The short - term outlook for stock index futures is expected to stabilize and recover. The end of the "Spring Rally" was affected by policy adjustments and external risks, but there is still a possibility of a second - wave rally [13]. Summary by Relevant Categories 1. Metals Gold and Silver - Yesterday, gold, silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their decline. The sharp drop was mainly triggered by the fall of US stocks, extreme trading convergence in precious metals, and the potential hawkish stance of the new Fed Chairman. In the short - term, it is recommended to consider option strategies mainly based on selling options, and the internal - external spread of silver may converge. The support level for gold is lowered to $4275 per ounce, and for silver, it remains at $70 per ounce [9][10]. Copper - The price of copper was weak due to pessimistic sentiment. The US manufacturing expansion and production changes in major copper - producing regions such as Zambia, Chile, and Canada affected the market. The copper trend strength was neutral [24][25][26]. Zinc - Zinc was in a range - bound oscillation. News such as the delay of the US employment report and the potential Fed Chairman's plan to shrink the balance sheet influenced the market. The zinc trend strength was neutral [27][28][29]. Lead - The decrease in LME lead inventory limited the price decline. Positive US manufacturing data and the delay of the US employment report were important news. The lead trend strength was neutral [30][31]. Tin - Tin was in a phase of decline and consolidation. The price of tin dropped significantly, and there were various macro and industry news such as Iran - US negotiations. The tin trend strength was bearish [33][34][35]. Aluminum - Aluminum was waiting for market repair. Alumina had a slight rebound, and cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum. There were various data changes in the aluminum market, and relevant news such as Iran - US nuclear negotiations and India - US trade agreements affected the market. The aluminum trend strength was bullish, while alumina and aluminum alloy were neutral [37][38]. Platinum and Palladium - Platinum was slightly recovering in the oscillation, and palladium had strong resilience but was still in low - level oscillation. The market was affected by factors such as the delay of the US employment report and the expansion of the US manufacturing sector. The trend strength of both was neutral [39][40][43]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The marginal influence on nickel was dominated by macro sentiment, with a game between fundamentals and speculative positions. For stainless steel, there were frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and nickel - iron was expected to support the price. The trend strength of both was neutral [46][47][52]. 2. Energy - related Coal - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Both were in high - level oscillations. The coking coal market had issues such as a high auction non - sale rate, and the price of both was affected by factors like the adjustment of the CCI metallurgical coal index [74][75]. - **Steam Coal**: The supply - demand was in a weak balance, and the coal price before the Spring Festival was expected to be stable. The market was affected by factors such as port inventory changes and potential production cuts in Indonesia [79][80]. 3. Chemicals PX, PTA, and MEG - PX followed the sharp decline of oil prices and was in an interval - oscillation market. PTA was also in an interval - oscillation market with a bearish view on the monthly spread. MEG was in a unilateral interval - oscillation market with large supply pressure. The market was affected by factors such as the restart of domestic and overseas devices, changes in the supply - demand of PTA and MEG, and the decline of the overall commodity market [85][90][91]. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Rubber was in a weak - oscillation trend. The inventory in Qingdao increased, and the production and sales of tires were affected by the approaching Spring Festival. Synthetic rubber was in a high - level decline, influenced by factors such as the reduction of geopolitical conflicts and the approaching boundary of valuation indicators [93][96][98]. LLDPE and PP - LLDPE had a narrowing import profit, limited offers, and weakened oil price support. PP was greatly affected by cost, and its profit might be repaired. The market was affected by factors such as the decline of raw material prices, changes in supply and demand, and the profit of production devices [99][100][103]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda was supported by cost, and the future expectation was strong. Although the high - inventory situation made the spot market weak before the Spring Festival, the market's expectation of future supply reduction was strong. The trend strength was bullish [105][107][110]. Pulp - Pulp was in a wide - range oscillation. The market demand was weak, and the high - inventory and weak - demand contradiction restricted the market trend. The trend strength was neutral [111][113][114]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets was stable. The market demand was limited, and attention should be paid to the winter - storage policy of manufacturers in high - inventory areas. The trend strength was neutral [116][117]. Methanol - Methanol was oscillating with support. The macro - sentiment was weak, but the international energy price provided support. The supply - demand pattern was weak in the short - term, and the inventory was high. The trend strength was neutral [119][121][122]. Urea - Urea was in short - term horizontal consolidation. The macro - sentiment was weak, and there was a small - scale state reserve release. The fundamental pressure and support levels were clear. The trend strength was neutral [124][125][126]. Styrene - Styrene was in a relatively strong oscillation. The market was in a high - production and high - inventory pattern, and the future supply - demand situation and the restart of parking devices should be noted. The trend strength was neutral [127][128]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash changed little. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be weakly stable and oscillating. The trend strength was neutral [130][132]. LPG and Propylene - LPG was strongly affected by short - term geopolitical factors, and the fundamental driving force was downward. Propylene's upward driving force was weakening, and attention should be paid to cost - end disturbances. The market was affected by factors such as price changes, device maintenance plans, and changes in shipping volume. The trend strength of both was neutral [134][138][139]. PVC - PVC had a strong sentiment, but the fundamentals did not improve significantly. Although there were some supporting factors in the short - term, the high - production and high - inventory structure was difficult to change, and attention should be paid to the future supply reduction situation. The trend strength was neutral [142][143][144]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil had a sharp decline and continued in a high - volatility state. Low - sulfur fuel oil mainly followed the decline, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market continued to shrink. The trend strength of both was bearish [147]. 4. Others Logs - Logs had a slight upward exploration. The price and trading volume of log contracts changed, and the market was affected by factors such as the manufacturing PMI. The trend strength was bullish [81][83][84]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The shipping index (European line) was in an oscillating market. The market was affected by factors such as the weakening of commodity sentiment, the easing of the geopolitical situation, and changes in shipping capacity. Different contracts had different strategies. The trend strength was neutral [149][160][162]. Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Resin - Both short - fiber and bottle - grade resin were in short - term oscillations after the release of emotional risks. The market was affected by factors such as price changes of upstream polyester raw materials and production and sales of products. The trend strength of both was neutral [165][166]. Offset Printing Paper - For offset printing paper, it was recommended to hold short positions and conduct a 3 - 4 reverse spread. The price in the spot market was stable, and the trading atmosphere was weak. The trend strength was bearish [168][169][170]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene was in a relatively strong oscillation. The inventory in some ports decreased, and the price changed. The trend strength was neutral [173][174][175]. Fats and Oils - Palm oil was affected by the ebb of macro - sentiment and the attenuation of geopolitical influence, and soybean oil was in high - level oscillation adjustment. The market was affected by factors such as the decline of international crude oil prices, the expected high yield of South American soybeans, and relevant policies in Indonesia. The trend strength of both was neutral [177][178][179]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Soybean meal oscillated following the sentiment of the commodity market, and the state - reserve auction of soybeans had a positive impact. The market was affected by factors such as the decline of international crude oil prices and the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans. The trend strength of both was neutral [183][185]. Corn - The decline range of corn was limited. The price in the spot market changed, and the futures price was affected by the overall market situation. The trend strength was neutral [186][187][188]. Sugar - Sugar was in a weak operation. The global sugar supply - demand situation changed, and attention should be paid to policies such as China's import of syrup and premixed powder. The trend strength was bearish [189][190][191]. Cotton - Cotton was expected to maintain an oscillating trend. The spot trading of cotton was average, the price of cotton yarn was stable, and the ICE cotton futures declined. The trend strength was bullish [193][194][197]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs weakened. The prices of futures and spot contracts changed, and the market was affected by factors such as the prices of feed and related products. The trend strength was bearish [199][200]. Hogs - The pre - festival price increase of hogs was less than expected, and the pressure increased. The prices of spot and futures contracts changed, and the trend strength was bearish [202][203][204]. Peanuts - Peanuts were in a weak - oscillating state. The spot price was stable, and the futures price and trading volume changed. The trend strength was neutral [206][207][208].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Huatai-PineBridge ETF (159652) in the non-ferrous metals sector, which opened with a gain of 3.96% at 1.891 yuan [1] - The ETF's major holdings include Zijin Mining, which rose by 3.36%, Luoyang Molybdenum by 3.12%, Northern Rare Earth by 2.41%, and others, indicating a positive trend in the sector [1] - The ETF has a performance benchmark based on the CSI Sub-Industry Non-Ferrous Metals Theme Index, managed by Huatai-PineBridge Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 89.27% since its inception on January 16, 2023, and a monthly return of 13.04% [1] Group 2 - Notable stock movements include Ganfeng Lithium increasing by 2.91%, while Shandong Gold experienced a decline of 7.33%, and Zhongjin Gold fell by 8.16%, reflecting volatility within the sector [1] - The article provides a snapshot of the ETF's performance and its key holdings, which are crucial for investors looking at opportunities in the non-ferrous metals market [1]

每经AI快讯，2月3日，有色金属股集体反弹。截至发稿，五矿资源(01208.HK)涨6.09%、洛阳钼业 (03993.HK)涨5.73%、招金矿业(01818.HK)涨5.12%、赤峰黄金(06693.HK)涨4.74%。 ...

跨品种套利跟踪 2026/02/03 有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/02/03 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2026/02/03 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 100400 12448 8.26 三月 98280 12508 8.10 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 7.88 -731.31 现货出口 -3180.64 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2026/02/03 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 25010 3266 7.66 三月 24530 3272 5.14 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.29 -2060.16 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2026/02/03 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 23700 2977 7.96 三月 23005 2999 7.99 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.36 -1179.22 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2026/02/03 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 134750 16431 8.20 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.04 -1560.37 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2026/02/03 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16625 1913 8.67 三月 16760 1961 12.7 ...

Group 1 - A-shares experienced significant volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 2.48% on the first trading day of February 2026, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2025 [1] - Some funds shifted from cyclical and technology sectors to defensive sectors such as agriculture and consumer goods, while the overall strategy remains focused on AI technology and cyclical sectors [1][2] Group 2 - The decline in the A-share market is attributed to multiple factors, including overseas liquidity expectations due to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, which raised concerns about tightening financial conditions [2] - The commodity market's high volatility, particularly in gold and silver prices, also contributed to the market downturn [2] - The approach of the Chinese New Year holiday has led to increased market caution and observation [2] Group 3 - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, the current market issues are primarily due to overtrading of trend assets, and the weak dollar cycle is not ending but rather shifting in logic [3] - The long-term logic of "cyclical Alpha, supply constraints + new economic demand + strategic resource security + weak dollar" remains intact [3][4] Group 4 - Shenwan Hongyuan suggests that a prolonged period of market fluctuation is expected before a new upward trend emerges, with a focus on AI applications and the chemical sector [4] - The AI industry continues to progress, with potential gradual transition towards application, while the cyclical Alpha recovery has not yet reached extreme values [4] Group 5 - Guotai Junan believes that after the market decline, there is potential for stabilization and a recovery in the upward trend before the Chinese New Year, maintaining a positive outlook on the Chinese stock market [5] - The focus is shifting towards domestic demand, which is expected to enhance the economic outlook and asset returns [5] Group 6 - Emerging technologies are seen as a main investment theme, with recommendations for sectors such as internet, media, computing, and robotics [6] - The expansion of domestic demand is identified as a key growth driver, with recommendations for food and beverage, consumer services, and aviation sectors [6] - The financial sector is viewed as a stabilizing force, benefiting from the growth in wealth management demand, with recommendations for insurance, brokerage, and banking [6] Group 7 - Suggested ETFs for investment include: - AI applications/emerging technology: Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330.SH), Media ETF (516190.SH) - Domestic demand: Food and Beverage ETF (515170.SH) - Financial sector: Hong Kong Stock Connect Financial ETF (513190.SH) - Broad market: CSI 300 ETF (510330.SH) [7]

Core Viewpoint - Recent sharp decline in precious metals has spread panic to the non-ferrous metals sector, with significant price drops observed in various contracts [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Overnight, Shanghai tin prices continued to plummet, with initial trading today showing a slight reduction in losses, yet the main contract still fell over 9% [1] - Shanghai nickel exhibited weak fluctuations, with the main contract dropping more than 2% [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman, known for his hawkish policy stance, has raised investor concerns regarding tightening monetary policy and a strengthening dollar [1] - This shift in sentiment has rapidly cooled risk appetite, putting pressure on the entire non-ferrous metals sector [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - A significant number of long positions accumulated previously were liquidated, creating a stampede effect that exacerbated market liquidity issues and led to a sharp price decline [1]

策略配置研究 2026 年 2 月 3 日 中观行业比较月报（2026 年 1 月） 轮动中把握景气线索，关注涨价与科技 证券分析师 平安观点： 1. 上游周期：地缘风险、流动性偏宽等多重驱动下，1 月商品走强波动加大。 有色涨幅最为显著，月末价格回落、波动加大，多数品种已升至近两年 90% 以上高分位区间；石油、化工品接力上涨，但价格水平多数仍处于历史中枢以 下，化工品内部分化明显；煤炭价格波动向上，钢铁、建材表现平淡。 2. 中游制造：新能源产业链材料涨价，出口支撑部分行业量的景气。1 月新 能源光伏、电池产业链材料价格普遍上涨，多数品种已处近两年 80%以上分 位，但仍远低于 2022 年高点；12 月电池出口有支撑；电网设备迎"十五五" 政策支持。机械制造的近一年价格指数相对平稳，12 月通用机械、挖掘机出 口维持高增，机器人产量延续高增。汽车内销偏弱出口韧性，12 月乘用车、 新能源车销量环比负增，但出口相对韧性；商用车内销、出口环比同步增长。 3. TMT：存储引领半导体涨价周期，AI 软硬件需求延续向好。1 月存储 DXI 指数环比上涨 28.3%，同比涨幅超 10 倍，智能设备销售均价同步上涨 ...

市场每天都被各类消息包裹，不少投资者习惯跟着消息面调整自己的投资方向，但常常陷入"消息刚出，行情已变"的尴尬。近期有统计数据显示，截 至1月30日，沪深两市共有84只个股连续5个交易日或以上获融资净买入，其中鹏欣资源连续11个交易日获净买入，申万宏源、崧盛股份等多只个股也 在列。很多人会疑惑，这些获持续资金关注的个股，后续走势是否值得期待？实际上，A股市场的运行逻辑有其特殊性，往往存在"提前布局、提前交 易"的特征，消息面更多是市场波动的诱因，而非核心决定因素。想要跳出消息面的迷惑，关键在于看懂背后的真实交易行为——这正是量化大数据能 发挥核心价值的地方，它能帮我们客观还原资金的参与状态，避免被表面走势和嘈杂消息左右。 一、消息面的迷惑性：交易节奏的错位困境 不少投资者都有过类似经历：一则利好消息出台，赶紧跟进却发现走势不及预期；或是利空消息出现，慌忙离场后却看到走势出现逆转。这种困惑的 根源，在于A股市场和海外市场的交易逻辑差异——海外市场通常基于已知信息开展交易，消息会直接反映在走势变化中；而A股市场更倾向于提前布 局、提前交易，也就有了"买传闻、卖新闻"的说法。但即便了解这个逻辑，依然很难踩准节奏，因为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, leading to a rebound in risk appetite and a strengthening of the US dollar index. The short - term economic downward pressure has eased, and the market risk preference has recovered. The short - term dollar is expected to continue to rise [15]. - Gold prices continued to decline on Monday, and silver hit the daily limit down. The market is still digesting the negative impact of Wash being nominated as the Fed Chairman. The short - term sharp decline of precious metals may end, but it is difficult to rise rapidly, and it is expected to enter a volatile stage [13]. - A - shares had a sharp adjustment, and the Shanghai Composite Index barely held above 4000 points. The weakening of the "inflation up, bulk prices up, economic recovery" logic led to a sharp decline in related sectors and dragged down the stock market. In the short term, the stock index lacks the momentum to rise and still needs to oscillate to digest the capital pressure [23]. - For commodities, different varieties have different trends. For example, palm oil exports increased, and the inventory decreased; iron ore supply pressure is high, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly; coal prices are expected to be strong in February; and the prices of some energy - chemical products such as crude oil and asphalt are affected by geopolitical and market factors [37][34][32]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 1 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.6, the highest since August 2022, with an expected 48.5 and a previous value of 47.9. Fed Bostic expects no rate cuts in 2026. Gold prices continued to decline on Monday, and silver hit the daily limit down. The short - term sharp decline of precious metals may end, but it is difficult to rise rapidly, and it is expected to enter a volatile stage. It is recommended to wait for the market volatility to decline, and the adjustment pressure of silver is greater than that of gold, and the gold - silver ratio will rise [11][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump called on Republicans to take control of the election process from the states. The US 1 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was the highest since February 2022, which led to a rebound in risk appetite and a strengthening of the US dollar index. The short - term dollar is expected to continue to rise [14][15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 1 - month ISM manufacturing PMI far exceeded expectations. Oracle launched a $25 billion bond issuance. The US government shutdown postponed the release of the January employment report. It is expected that the US stock market will maintain high - level volatility [17][18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market had a sharp adjustment, and the Shanghai Composite Index barely held above 4000 points. The weakening of the "inflation up, bulk prices up, economic recovery" logic led to a sharp decline in related sectors and dragged down the stock market. In the short term, the stock index lacks the momentum to rise and still needs to oscillate to digest the capital pressure [23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank carried out 750 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan on the day. The performance of treasury bond futures was slightly weak. It is recommended to moderately pay attention to the opportunity of shorting T [25]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - 276 steel enterprises completed the publicity of ultra - low emission transformation. The 2 - month auto market will enter a stage of adjustment. Steel prices followed the decline of peripheral metals. The inventory of building materials has increased significantly, and the demand has weakened seasonally. It is recommended to treat steel prices with an oscillatory mindset, and the short - term decline space is expected to be limited [27][30]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On February 2, the price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable. With the approach of the festival, the supply has shrunk, and some terminal enterprises still have pre - holiday replenishment needs, which support the coal price to a certain extent. It is expected that the coal price will be strong in February, and attention should be paid to the temperature and new energy power generation in February [32]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The construction of the port and railway in Baffin Island was approved to support the expansion plan of Mary River Mine. The supply of iron ore is at a high level, and the demand is temporarily static. It is expected that the iron ore price will oscillate weakly [34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - As of January 30, 2026, the domestic palm oil inventory was 701,400 tons, a decrease of 40,900 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 5.51%. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 31 increased by 17.93% month - on - month. After the macro - sentiment stabilizes, long positions can be continued to be arranged [36][37]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The Brazilian soybean harvest progress is slightly faster than that of the same period last year. The domestic soybean meal inventory of oil mills has increased. It is expected that the domestic and foreign futures prices will maintain a weak - oscillatory trend [38][40]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The copper concentrate processing fee is at a low level, and the EU is considering new sanctions on Russian copper. The copper price has dropped significantly due to the decline of precious metals. In the short term, the volatility is still relatively large. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - term and wait - and - see for arbitrage [41][42][44]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The domestic social inventory of lead ingots has increased. The lead market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the social inventory will increase seasonally. It is recommended to wait - and - see in the short - term and pay attention to the medium - term long - position opportunity [45]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price has dropped significantly. The domestic inventory has increased seasonally. It is recommended to wait - and - see temporarily and manage positions well [48][49]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply of tin is expected to ease, but the supply concentration is high. The short - term tin price is expected to be weak and oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the supply recovery expectation and the improvement of consumption [51][52]. 3.2.10 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iran said it was willing to close or suspend its nuclear program. Trump reached a trade agreement with India. The oil price has dropped significantly. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the changes in the Iranian situation [53][55]. 3.2.11 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries has decreased, and the social inventory has increased. The short - term asphalt price is under pressure, and the subsequent trend depends on whether there are sudden changes in the geopolitical situation [57]. 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - Iran hopes to avoid war with the US through diplomatic efforts. It is recommended to short the methanol 05 contract, with a stop - profit point of 2183 yuan/ton, and aggressive investors can lower the stop - profit to the previous box area of 2120 - 2150 yuan/ton [58][60]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports has changed. The short - term styrene market has large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait - and - see and reduce the risk exposure before the Spring Festival [61][63]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The high - supply, weak - demand, and high - inventory situation has not changed. The short - term rebound height of caustic soda is expected to be limited, and the disk may be under pressure again [64][65]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder has risen, but the transaction is not good. The PVC market is under supply pressure, and the downstream demand is expected to weaken. The current rise is mainly due to policy expectations, and the upward rebound height should not be overly optimistic, but it may still be relatively strong in the short - term under the catalysis of sentiment [66][67].

建议逢低布局。本次波动与美联储主席提名引发的美宽松预期变化有关，但更主要的可能是此前大宗商 品价格过快上行，交易拥挤度较高，一旦预期变化将引发头寸集中抛售。并且该行认为凯文·沃什的决 策可能受到较多制约，美联储难以像市场担忧彻底转为鹰派，市场短期可能已经提前计入较多悲观预 期。A股当前资金面充裕、业绩改善、产业趋势催化等积极因素并未发生改变，该行认为短期波动已开 始提供逢低布局机会。中期而言，该行在此前研报中指出，国际秩序重构与我国产业创新趋势共振是推 动本轮市场上涨、中国资产重估的核心驱动力；全球货币秩序重构带来的格局转换和资金流动的力量， 或远大于一时、一国和一市场的基本面力量。该行认为，这两大条件未发生改变，2026年将继续支持中 国资产表现。 A股今日表现偏弱，上证指数下跌2.5%。2026年初A股市场在乐观预期、产业事件性催化、流动性相对 充裕等因素影响下延续上行趋势，但换手率过高、情绪偏热后，市场自1月13日震荡调整。今日A股市 场主要指数普跌，上证指数跌2.5%，沪深300跌2.1%，偏成长风格的科创50和创业板指分别跌3.9%、 2.5%，中证红利跌3.1%。成交层面，今日成交额2.6万亿元， ...