美国12月数据显示，美国潜在通胀有所缓和，这进一步印证了价格压力正在逐步缓解的观点，也使此前 受临时停摆影响而失真的数据更加清晰。受此影响，利率期货显示，投资者对美联储今年降息两次或三 次的预期存在分歧，超过了政策制定者此前预测的一次降息的中值。与此同时，由于美国检察官对美联 储主席鲍威尔6月份的证词展开刑事调查，市场对美联储独立性的担忧加剧，避险需求也随之增强。此 外，地缘政治风险依然高企，市场密切关注美国可能介入伊朗政治动荡的可能性，此前美国曾多次发出 可能采取军事行动的警告。 | 代码 | 名标 | | 涨幅% ↓ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002842 | 翔鹭铝业 | | 10.03 | 57.42亿 | 21.37 | | 002716 | 湖南日银 | 1 | 9.20 | 278亿 | 42.34 | | 000969 | 安泰科技 | 1 | 8.45 | 322 Z | 46.03 | | 002203 | 海亮股份 | 1 | 7.80 | 377亿 | 29.94 | | 000960 | 锡业股 ...

Core Insights - As of January 14, 2026, gold and copper prices have strengthened, leading to a rise in related products, with the non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) increasing by 1.89%, marking its fourth consecutive rise [1] - The non-ferrous metal ETF has seen continuous capital inflow over the past 14 days, totaling 7.578 billion yuan, with its latest share reaching 5.260 billion and total scale reaching 11.093 billion yuan, both hitting record highs since inception [1] - The net value of the non-ferrous metal ETF has increased by 137.34% over the past two years, with the highest monthly return since inception being 27.00% and the longest consecutive monthly increase lasting 6 months with a maximum increase of 69.57% [1] Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metal ETF closely tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Non-Ferrous Metal Theme Index, which as of December 31, 2025, has its top ten weighted stocks including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and others, collectively accounting for 52.98% of the index [2] - The top ten stocks in the index and their respective weightings are as follows: Zijin Mining (1.78%, 16.32%), Northern Rare Earth (2.11%, 6.60%), Luoyang Molybdenum (2.11%, 5.96%), and others [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significant increase in LME cancelled warrants supports copper prices [1] - By 2040, global copper demand will significantly increase, driven by the AI and defense sectors [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 102,290, with a daily decline of 1.45%, and the night - session closing price was 103,540, with a night - session increase of 1.22%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 13,157, with a daily decline of 0.12% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 668,804, an increase of 105,862 from the previous day, and the open interest was 690,536, a decrease of 4,076 from the previous day. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 32,396, a decrease of 3,345 from the previous day, and the open interest was 324,000, a decrease of 543 from the previous day [1] - **Futures Inventories**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 122,127, an increase of 5,505 from the previous day, and the LME Copper inventory was 141,550, an increase of 4,325 from the previous day. The LME cancelled warrant ratio was 36.61%, an increase of 20.53% from the previous day [1] - **Spreads**: There were changes in various spreads such as LME copper spreads, spot - to - futures spreads, and inter - contract spreads [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: In the US, the core CPI in December was only 2.6% year - on - year, remaining at a four - year low. The interest rate market still bets that the next interest rate cut will be in June this year. On January 13, US President Trump cancelled all talks with Iranian officials [1] - **Industry News**: Codelco's copper production in 2025 was 133.2 million tons, slightly higher than in 2024. In November, its copper production decreased by 3% year - on - year to 130,900 tons. Pan Pacific Copper (PPC) proposed a record - high copper premium of $330 per ton for Japanese domestic customers in 2026 [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis of various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and gives corresponding trend intensities and trading suggestions for each commodity [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. The prices of domestic and foreign gold futures and spot have different performances, and investors have almost erased their bets on a January rate cut. The trend intensity is 1 [7][9] - **Silver**: It has reached a new high. The prices of domestic and foreign silver futures and spot have increased, and the trend intensity is 1 [7] - **Platinum**: It is in range consolidation. The prices of platinum - related products have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [28][30] - **Palladium**: It has a narrow - range fluctuation. The prices of palladium - related products have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [28][30] Base Metals - **Copper**: The large increase in LME cancelled warrants supports the price. Although the prices of domestic and foreign copper futures have declined, the cancelled warrant ratio has increased significantly. The trend intensity is 1 [10][13] - **Zinc**: The high - level volatility has increased. The prices of domestic and foreign zinc futures have increased, and the trend intensity is 1 [14][17] - **Lead**: The reduction of overseas inventory supports the price. The prices of domestic and foreign lead futures have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [18][19] - **Tin**: It has broken through the historical high. The prices of domestic and foreign tin futures and spot have increased significantly, and the trend intensity is 1 [21][23] - **Aluminum**: It is in a strong - running state. The prices of domestic aluminum futures and related products have different performances, and the trend intensity is 1 [25][26] - **Alumina**: It continues to explore the bottom. The prices of domestic alumina futures and related products have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [25][26] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The prices of domestic cast aluminum alloy futures and related products have different performances, and the trend intensity is 1 [25][26] - **Nickel**: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, and it runs in a wide - range fluctuation. The prices of domestic nickel futures and related products have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [32][37] - **Stainless Steel**: The increase in nickel - iron raises the oscillation center of gravity, and the market bets on Indonesian policies. The prices of domestic stainless - steel futures and related products have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [33][37] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It has a strong - side oscillation, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. The prices of domestic carbonate - lithium futures and related products have increased, and the trend intensity is 0 [38][40] - **Industrial Silicon**: The downstream production has been cut, and the demand has decreased marginally. The prices of domestic industrial - silicon futures and related products have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [41][44] - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the factory's quotation. The prices of domestic polysilicon futures and related products have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [42][44] - **Iron Ore**: The valuation is relatively high, and it is necessary to be cautious about chasing up. The prices of domestic iron - ore futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is - 1 [45] - **Rebar**: It oscillates repeatedly. The prices of domestic rebar futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [47][51] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: It oscillates repeatedly. The prices of domestic hot - rolled - coil futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [47][51] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: It has a wide - range oscillation. The prices of domestic silicon - ferrosilicon futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [52][55] - **Manganese Ferrosilicon**: It has a wide - range oscillation. The prices of domestic manganese - ferrosilicon futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [52][55] - **Coke**: It oscillates at a high level. The prices of domestic coke futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [56][57] - **Coking Coal**: It oscillates at a high level. The prices of domestic coking - coal futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [56][57] - **Steam Coal**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price has a narrow - range adjustment in the short term. The prices of domestic steam - coal futures and spot have different performances, and no trend intensity is mentioned [58] - **Log**: It oscillates repeatedly. The prices of domestic log futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [60][63] - **Para - Xylene**: The cost support is relatively strong. The prices of domestic para - xylene futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 1 [64][69] - **PTA**: The polyester plans to cut production, and attention should be paid to the implementation strength. The prices of domestic PTA futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is 1 [64][69] - **MEG**: The downward valuation space is limited. The prices of domestic MEG futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is 1 [64][69] - **Rubber**: It has a wide - range oscillation. The prices of domestic rubber futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [72][73] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It oscillates at a high level. The prices of domestic synthetic - rubber futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [76][78] - **LLDPE**: The production of standard products remains at a low level, and the spot price has increased, with the basis turning positive. The prices of domestic LLDPE futures and spot have increased, and the trend intensity is 0 [79][80] - **PP**: The downstream export rush supports propylene, and the cost support for PP is relatively strong. The prices of domestic PP futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [81][83] - **Caustic Soda**: It oscillates weakly. The prices of domestic caustic - soda futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is - 1 [84][87] - **Pulp**: It oscillates. The prices of domestic pulp futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [89][91] - **Glass**: The price of the raw sheet is stable. The prices of domestic glass futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [94][95] - **Methanol**: It oscillates with support. The prices of domestic methanol futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 1 [97][100] - **Urea**: It oscillates. The prices of domestic urea futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [101][104] - **Styrene**: It oscillates in the short term. The prices of domestic styrene futures and related products have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [105][108] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The prices of domestic soda - ash futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [109][111] - **LPG**: The short - term supply is tight, and the geopolitical disturbance is strong. The prices of domestic LPG futures have increased, and the trend intensity is 0 [114][119] - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand has tightened, and the trend is strong. The prices of domestic propylene futures have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [115][119] - **PVC**: It oscillates weakly. The prices of domestic PVC futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is - 1 [123][124] - **Fuel Oil**: The geopolitical factor drives up the price, and there is still support below. The prices of domestic fuel - oil futures and spot have increased, and the trend intensity is 2 [126] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It mainly follows the upward trend, and the high - low - sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market has continued to rebound. The prices of domestic low - sulfur - fuel - oil futures and spot have increased, and the trend intensity is 2 [126] Agricultural Products - **Short - Fiber**: It oscillates strongly. The prices of domestic short - fiber futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [144][145] - **Bottle - Chip**: It oscillates strongly. The prices of domestic bottle - chip futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [144][145] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Short positions should be established at high prices. The prices of domestic offset - printing - paper futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is - 1 [147][148] - **Pure Benzene**: It oscillates mainly in the short term. The prices of domestic pure - benzene futures and spot have increased, and the trend intensity is 0 [152][154] - **Palm Oil**: There are doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and the POGO is expected to narrow. The prices of domestic palm - oil futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [156][161] - **Soybean Oil**: The momentum of US soybeans is limited, and attention should be paid to the spill - over effect of crude oil. The prices of domestic soybean - oil futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [156][161] - **Soybean Meal**: It may follow US soybeans to digest the USDA report, and the market is weak. The prices of domestic soybean - meal futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is - 1 [162][164] - **Soybeans**: The spot price is stable and strong, and the market may oscillate. The prices of domestic soybean futures have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [162][164] - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot price. The prices of domestic corn futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [165][168] - **Sugar**: It runs weakly. The prices of domestic sugar futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is - 1 [169][172] - **Cotton**: It continues the adjustment trend. The prices of domestic cotton futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [174][177] - **Eggs**: The spot market is profitable, but the sentiment in the far - month contracts has weakened. The prices of domestic egg futures have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [180][181] - **Hogs**: There is a negative feedback in demand, and the release of supply is further postponed. The prices of domestic hog futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [183][185] - **Peanuts**: It oscillates. The prices of domestic peanut futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [188][191] Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It runs weakly. The prices of domestic container - freight - index (European - line) futures have declined, and the trend intensity is - 1 [128][143]

1月14日，香港恒生指数开盘涨0.46%，恒生科技指数涨0.42%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HSI | 恒生指数 | 26971.97c 123.50 | 0.46% | | HSTECH | | 5894.63c 24.84 | 0.42% | | HSBIO | 恒生生物科技 | 16655.41c 167.58 | 1.02% | | HSCEI | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9328.05c 42.64 | 0.46% | | HSCl | 恒生综合指数 | 4145.92c 22.19 | 0.54% | 电气设备、食品饮料、有色金属、国防军工等板块走强，银行、地产等少数板块下跌。 恒生科技(HSTECH) Q 01-14 09:20:32 资讯 资料 成分 相关基金 月度收益 名称 涨跌| 三 现价 阿里巴巴-W 163.800 2.44% 9988.HK 快手-W 80.000 1.98% 1024.HK 百度集团-SW 144.700 1.62% 9888.HK 腾讯控股 1.04% 634.000 0700.H ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump continues to pressure the Fed and Powell, but it may be difficult to achieve results. If Powell or the Fed yields, it may bring further turmoil to the US and global financial systems [7]. - Tin prices have broken through historical highs and are expected to continue rising, with the first target at 400,000 yuan/ton and the next target around 450,000 yuan/ton [8][9]. - Crude oil may have a 2 - 4 dollars/barrel rebound space in the short - term, but there is still significant downward pressure in the first half of the year, and it may test 50 dollars/barrel [11]. - Double - offset paper has alleviated the warehouse receipt contradiction and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. In the long - term, it is still recommended to short at high prices [13]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Pre - market Focus - Trump criticizes Powell and calls for a large - scale interest rate cut. The Fed's independence is under threat, and the market is waiting to see if there will be an interest rate cut this month [7]. 3.2. Top Picks by the Director 3.2.1. Tin - Tin prices have reached a new high. Supply is tight, inventory is low, and price transmission to downstream is smooth. Future prices are expected to rise [8][9]. 3.2.2. Crude Oil - Short - term price may rise due to geopolitical risks and good spot market transactions, but there is downward pressure in the first half of the year [11]. 3.2.3. Double - offset Paper - Warehouse receipt quantity has increased, and the price is expected to decline in the short - term. In the long - term, supply is redundant, and demand is weak [13]. 3.3. Commodity Research Morning Report 3.3.1. Precious Metals - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. - Silver: Reached a new high [15][20]. 3.3.2. Base Metals - Copper: LME cancelled warehouse receipts have increased, supporting the price [23]. - Zinc: High - level volatility has increased [26]. - Lead: Overseas inventory has decreased, supporting the price [29]. - Tin: Broke through the historical high [32]. - Aluminum: Running strongly; Alumina: Continuing to bottom out; Cast aluminum alloy: Following electrolytic aluminum [36]. - Platinum: Range - bound; Palladium: Narrow - range oscillation [39]. - Nickel: Industry and secondary funds are in a game, with wide - range oscillation [43]. - Stainless steel: Nickel - iron has raised the oscillation center, and the market is betting on Indonesian policies [44]. 3.3.3. Energy Metals - Carbonate lithium: Oscillating strongly, pay attention to market sentiment changes [49]. 3.3.4. Industrial Metals - Industrial silicon: Downstream production cuts, and demand is decreasing marginally [52]. - Polysilicon: Pay attention to factory quotes [53]. 3.3.5. Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Valuation is high, be cautious about chasing up [56]. - Rebar: Oscillating repeatedly [58]. - Hot - rolled coil: Oscillating repeatedly [58]. - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation [63]. - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation [63]. - Coke: High - level oscillation [67]. - Coking coal: High - level oscillation [67]. - Steam coal: Supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price will be adjusted in a narrow range in the short - term [69]. 3.3.6. Forestry Products - Logs: Oscillating repeatedly [72]. 3.3.7. Chemicals - p - Xylene: Cost support is strong [76]. - PTA: Polyester plans to cut production, pay attention to the implementation strength [76]. - MEG: Valuation has limited downward space [76]. - Rubber: Wide - range oscillation [84]. - Synthetic rubber: High - level oscillation [88]. - LLDPE: Standard product production ratio remains low, and spot prices are rising [91]. - PP: Downstream export rush supports propylene, and PP cost support is strong [93]. - Caustic soda: Oscillating weakly [96]. - Pulp: Oscillating [101]. - Glass: Original sheet price is stable [106]. - Methanol: Oscillating with support [109]. - Urea: Oscillating [113]. - Styrene: Short - term oscillation [117]. - Soda ash: Spot market changes little [121]. - LPG: Short - term supply is tight, and geopolitical disturbances are strong [126]. - Propylene: Spot supply and demand are tightening, with a strong upward trend [127]. - PVC: Oscillating weakly [135]. - Fuel oil: Geopolitical factors drive up the price, and there is still support below [138]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Following the rise, the high - low sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market continues to rebound [138]. 3.3.8. Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line): Running weakly [140]. 3.3.9. Textiles - Short - fiber: Oscillating strongly, hold long TA and short PF positions [157]. - Bottle chips: Oscillating strongly, hold long - short spread positions [157]. 3.3.10. Paper Products - Offset printing paper: Short at high prices [160]. 3.3.11. Agricultural Products - Pure benzene: Short - term oscillation [165]. - Palm oil: There are doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and POGO is expected to shrink [169]. - Soybean oil: The momentum of US soybeans is limited, pay attention to the spill - over effect of crude oil [169]. - Soybean meal: May follow US soybeans to digest the USDA report, and the market is weak [175]. - Soybeans: Spot prices are stable and strong, and the market may oscillate [175]. - Corn: Pay attention to spot prices [178]. - Sugar: Running weakly [182]. - Cotton: Continuing the adjustment trend [186]. - Eggs: Spot is profitable, and the sentiment for far - month contracts is weakening [192]. - Hogs: Demand has negative feedback, and supply release is postponed [195]. - Peanuts: Oscillating [199].

港股三大指数高开，恒指、国指涨0.46%，恒生科技指数涨0.42%。大型科技股多数上涨，其中阿里巴 巴涨2.44%连涨3日，百度涨1.6%，金银价格再创新高，黄金等有色金属股继续活跃，苹果概念股、生 物医药股、餐饮股、食品饮料股普涨，餐饮龙头海底捞涨近6%。另外，航空股、脑机接口概念股普 跌。(格隆汇) ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up by 0.46% and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.42%, with consumer stocks performing strongly, including Haidilao up over 5% and Nongfu Spring up over 3% [1] - The banking sector showed weakness, with China Bank declining by 0.22% [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities anticipates that the Hong Kong stock market will benefit from internal "15th Five-Year Plan" catalysts and external economic stimulus, predicting a second round of valuation recovery and performance revival by 2026, recommending focus on technology, healthcare, resource products, essential consumer goods, paper, and aviation sectors [2] - Huaxi Securities believes that the Hong Kong market will continue to underperform compared to A-shares, with a recovery in market sentiment requiring time, and notes that since early October last year, the market has been weak until a rebound in late December, suggesting that even with a strong start to the year, profit-taking may occur [2] - Guoyuan International states that the Hong Kong market is currently in a relatively quiet period, with market sentiment needing further catalysts, and mentions that the announcement of a new Federal Reserve Chair in January may reignite interest in rate cuts, potentially bringing new capital into the Hong Kong market [2] Group 3 - Industrial Securities recommends prioritizing leading internet companies in the AI sector, expecting a resonance of buying interest from both domestic and foreign investors, and suggests focusing on dividend assets in a low-interest-rate environment, including opportunities in insurance, banking, energy, property management, and public utilities [3] - The new consumption sector is highlighted, with three main lines of focus: traditional service-oriented consumption transformation led by chain hotels, Z-generation consumption such as trendy toys and beauty products, and high-end consumption [3]

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials in China shows a mixed trend, with 27 products experiencing price increases, 20 seeing declines, and 3 remaining stable in early January 2026 compared to late December 2025 [2]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, rebar prices increased by 7.0 yuan per ton (0.2%), while ordinary medium plates decreased by 10.6 yuan per ton (-0.3%) [4]. - In the non-ferrous metal category, electrolytic copper rose by 6,181.2 yuan per ton (6.4%), and aluminum ingots increased by 1,827.3 yuan per ton (8.3%) [4]. - Chemical products showed varied results, with sulfuric acid decreasing by 12.0 yuan per ton (-1.1%) and lithium iron phosphate increasing by 5,080.0 yuan per ton (11.3%) [4]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices fell by 35.4 yuan per ton (-1.0%), while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rose by 72.0 yuan per ton (1.7%) [4]. - Coal prices also saw declines, with anthracite coal dropping by 24.7 yuan per ton (-2.8%) and coke decreasing by 50.0 yuan per ton (-3.6%) [4]. Group 3: Agricultural Products and Fertilizers - In agricultural products, rice prices increased by 3.0 yuan per ton (0.1%), while soybean prices fell by 90.4 yuan per ton (-2.1%) [5]. - Fertilizer prices showed mixed results, with urea increasing by 17.4 yuan per ton (1.0%) and potassium fertilizer decreasing by 6.7 yuan per ton (-0.2%) [5]. Group 4: Monitoring Methodology - The price monitoring covers 50 products across 9 categories, with data collected from over 2,000 wholesalers and dealers across 31 provinces [8][9]. - The methodology includes on-site price collection, phone inquiries, and electronic communications [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On January 13, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 605.05 yuan/gram, with a decline of -3.2%; the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 483.25 yuan/gram, with a decline of -5.22% [3] - Due to concerns about the Fed's independence and rising geopolitical risks, platinum prices are expected to fluctuate widely but trend upward. The supply in South Africa faces risks, while the demand in the platinum market is expanding, and the "rate cut + soft landing" combination will increase price elasticity [3] - Affected by tariff expectations and geopolitical risks, palladium prices are expected to fluctuate widely but trend upward. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium is loosening, short - term spot shortages and the Fed's rate - cut cycle support the price [3][4] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Platinum Analysis - The main logic is that concerns about the Fed's independence and geopolitical risks have flared up again, and the "233" clause of the US Department of Commerce on critical minerals has no further news. Short - term price fluctuations may intensify. It is recommended to wait for price stabilization and then consider low - buying opportunities [3] - In terms of supply, South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, still faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. In terms of demand, the platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding demand in jewelry and investment [3] - The outlook is that platinum prices are expected to fluctuate upward due to healthy supply - demand fundamentals and positive macro - expectations [3] Palladium Analysis - The main logic is that the market expected the US to impose a 50% high - tariff on palladium on January 10. Palladium is being shipped to the US, intensifying non - US supply shortages. The policy has not been implemented yet, and short - term price fluctuations may intensify. It is recommended to trade cautiously and wait for price stabilization to consider low - buying opportunities [3] - In terms of demand, palladium shows significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium is loosening, short - term spot shortages and the Fed's rate - cut cycle support the price [3] - The outlook is that palladium prices are expected to fluctuate upward due to spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment [4] Commodity Index - On January 13, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2425.27, down - 0.30%; the commodity 20 index was 2779.12, down - 0.28%; the industrial products index was 2348.14, down - 0.52% [50] Non - ferrous Metals Index - On January 13, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2809.16, with a daily decline of -1.33%, a 5 - day decline of -1.30%, a 1 - month increase of +8.87%, and a year - to - date increase of +4.59% [52]