Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The price center of the contract during the session slightly moved down to 15,525 yuan/ton, and the closing price slightly decreased by 0.22% to 15,525 yuan/ton. The premium of the 1 - 5 month spread expanded to 40 yuan/ton. With the implementation of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the short - term positive factors were exhausted. The rubber market entered a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. It is expected that the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 may maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the future [5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,351 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,327 yuan/ton, and the closing price slightly decreased by 0.42% to 2,343 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 month spread widened to 32 yuan/ton. Suppressed by the weak methanol supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected that the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 may maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the future [5]. - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2511 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating downward, and significantly closing lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 478.7 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 471.6 yuan/barrel, and the closing price significantly decreased by 2.29% to 473.1 yuan/barrel. With the implementation of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the short - term positive factors were exhausted, and the market shifted to a weak supply - demand fundamental. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2511 may maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the future [6]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 461,200 tons (the adjusted previous - period total inventory was 464,700 tons), a month - on - month decrease of 3,600 tons or 0.76%. The bonded - area inventory was 69,400 tons (the adjusted previous - period bonded inventory was 73,100 tons), a decrease of 5.07%; the general - trade inventory was 391,800 tons (the adjusted previous - period general - trade inventory was 391,600 tons), an increase of 0.04%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural - rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 0.59 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.91 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general - trade warehouses increased by 1.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.78 percentage points. As of the week of September 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.70%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.09 percentage points and a year - on - year slight decrease of 3.40 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of the full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.70%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.61 percentage points and a year - on - year significant increase of 8.30 percentage points. In the terminal retail sector, in August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, a year - on - year increase of 0.8 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released that the China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index in August 2025 was 50.9%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a month - on - month slight decrease of 1% compared with July and a year - on - year increase of about 35% compared with 62,500 vehicles in the same period last year. In the first eight months of 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market reached 710,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13% [9][10]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of September 19, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate remained at 79.39%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.81%, a month - on - month slight decrease of 1.26%, and a slight decrease of 1.53% compared with the same period last year. During the same period, the average weekly domestic methanol output reached 1.8132 million tons, a week - on - week significant decrease of 106,100 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 84,200 tons, and a slight decrease of 30,200 tons compared with 1.8434 million tons in the same period last year. As of the week of September 19, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate remained at 31.54%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.06%. For dimethyl ether, the operating rate remained at 6.68%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.11%. The acetic acid operating rate remained at 75.72%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 3.84%. The MTBE operating rate remained at 57.66%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.85%. As of the week of September 19, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.88%, a week - on - week slight increase of 3.33 percentage points and a month - on - month slight increase of 3.58%. As of September 19, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 183 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight recovery of 41 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant decline of 26 yuan/ton. As of the week of September 19, 2025, the port methanol inventories in East and South China remained at 1.3298 million tons, a week - on - week significant increase of 62,500 tons, a month - on - month significant increase of 395,600 tons, and a significant increase of 487,200 tons compared with the same period last year. Among them, the port methanol inventory in East China reached 851,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,700 tons, and the port methanol inventory in South China reached 478,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18,800 tons. As of the week of September 17, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 340,500 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 2,100 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 29,600 tons, and a significant decrease of 94,200 tons compared with 434,700 tons in the same period last year [11][12][13]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of September 12, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 416, a week - on - week slight increase of 2 and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.482 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 13,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year slight increase of 282,000 barrels per day. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 415 million barrels, a week - on - week significant decrease of 9.285 million barrels and a significant decrease of 2.152 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, USA, reached 23.561 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 296,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 405.7 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 504,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate remained at 93.9%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.60 percentage points, a month - on - month slight decrease of 3.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 1.2 percentage points. As of September 16, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil futures remained at 98,709 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 16,865 contracts, a significant decrease of 23,354 contracts compared with the August average of 122,063 contracts, and a decline of 19.13%. Meanwhile, as of September 16, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds remained at 220,410 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 14,635 contracts, a slight increase of 18,092 contracts compared with the August average of 202,318 contracts, and an increase of 8.94%. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly week - on - week, while the net long positions in the Brent crude oil futures market increased significantly week - on - week [13][14][15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,700 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,615 yuan/ton | - 90 yuan/ton | - 825 yuan/ton | +90 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,260 yuan/ton | - 15 yuan/ton | 2,343 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | - 83 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 456.0 yuan/barrel | - 0.4 yuan/barrel | 473.1 yuan/barrel | - 9.9 yuan/barrel | - 17.1 yuan/barrel | +9.5 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts The report lists various related charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, methanol basis, methanol port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, crude oil basis, US commercial crude oil inventory, etc., but does not provide specific data analysis in the text [17][30][44]

Core Viewpoint - Qixiang Technology is initiating its listing guidance to provide high-quality products and services for the rubber industry, with a focus on innovative materials development and production [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Qixiang Technology specializes in the research, production, and sales of new materials, offering eight core product categories including low rolling resistance silane, high-temperature crosslinking agents, tread resins, bonding accelerators, special reinforcing fillers, environmentally friendly rubber oil, nano-silica, and modified bio-based materials [1] - The company has established a subsidiary, Qixiang New Materials (Shandong) Co., Ltd., which plans to invest 1.2 billion yuan, covering approximately 500 acres with a production capacity of 420,000 tons, utilizing innovative high-tech and automated systems, and is expected to commence production in 2025 [1] Group 2: Research and Development - Qixiang Technology emphasizes collaboration with universities, maintaining long-term technical exchanges with institutions such as Nanjing University, Nanjing University of Technology, South China University of Technology, Qingdao University of Science and Technology, and Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications [2] - The company has established specialized R&D centers in Huai'an and Suzhou, modern production bases in Huai'an and Linyi, a global marketing center in Shanghai, and has set up branches and offices in Qingdao, Chongqing, Tianjin, and Hong Kong [2] Group 3: Corporate Structure - The controlling shareholder of Qixiang Technology is Yao Xiang, who holds a direct shareholding ratio of 62.45% [3]

除部分企业存灵活控产行为，短期企业产能利用率或存小幅下调可能。ru2601合约短线预计在15300-1575 0区间波动，nr2511合约短线预计在12150-12600区间波动。 窄幅波动为主，半钢胎内销雪地胎订单集中排产期，仍有企业适度加大排产现象，对整体开工仍存一定支 数据来源于第三方，仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 撑；全钢胎替换市场需求未有明显提升，且部分企业外贸出口存压力。目前虽部分企业缺货现象仍存，企 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 业装置运行平稳以补充库存，但整体出货表现不及预期，部分企业库存仍存提升迹象，为缓解压力，不排 免责声明 天然橡胶产业日报 2025-09-23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | -90 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15525 | 12395 | -30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The substantial support policies such as "anti - involution" in the polysilicon market have not been implemented in time, and the new energy - consumption national standard has limited impact on short - term supply and demand. The supply - side regulation effect is less than expected, and the industry's over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. The inventory of downstream component links is high, and prices are loosening. Future attention should be paid to national - level policies on capacity clearance and industry procurement, as well as the actual start - up rate and production reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises, and the inventory digestion progress and new order demand of downstream photovoltaic component factories [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type polysilicon materials remained stable on September 22 compared with September 19, while the N - type material basis (average price) increased by 3420.00% [1]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 3.24% from September 19 to September 22, and the spread between different months showed various changes [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.64%, while monthly production increased by 23.31%. Monthly polysilicon import decreased by 9.63%, and net export increased by 94.25%. Weekly and monthly silicon wafer production increased [1]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 6.85%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.93% [1]. Group 2: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - From September to October, the supply of industrial silicon increases, and the supply - demand balance gradually becomes loose. The expected batch production reduction of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the flat - dry season is at the end of October, and the supply surplus is more obvious in October and narrows in November. The cost increase during the flat - dry season in the southwest boosts market sentiment. In the short term, industrial silicon has insufficient upward driving force, and the price may turn to oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and industrial silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan in the fourth quarter [2]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The prices of various types of industrial silicon increased on September 22 compared with September 19, and the basis also showed significant changes [2]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between different months of industrial silicon futures contracts showed various changes [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: Monthly national and regional industrial silicon production increased, and the national and regional start - up rates also increased. The production of organic silicon DMC and polysilicon increased, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. Industrial silicon exports increased [2]. - **Inventory Change**: The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased, while that in Yunnan and Sichuan increased slightly. Social inventory and non - warehouse receipt inventory increased slightly, and contract inventory decreased slightly [2]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures market is weak. Although the manufacturer's inventory has decreased recently, the inventory has actually transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. The weekly production remains high, and there is still an over - supply situation compared with the current rigid demand. In the medium term, there is no significant increase in downstream capacity, so the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. If there is no actual capacity exit or load reduction, the inventory will be further pressured. Attention can be paid to the implementation of policies and the load - regulation situation of alkali plants. It is advisable to short on rebounds [4]. - **Glass**: The glass futures market is weak. The spot market trading has become dull, and the inventory of some middle - stream areas remains high without obvious reduction. In the long - term, as the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Attention can be paid to the implementation of regional policies and the inventory - replenishment performance of the middle and lower reaches during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. In the short term, sentiment - driven factors may drive the spot market to improve, and the sustainability needs to be tracked [4]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in different regions remained stable, and the prices of glass futures contracts decreased slightly [4]. - **Soda - Ash - related Price and Spread**: The prices of soda ash in different regions remained stable, and the prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased [4]. - **Supply**: The soda ash start - up rate and weekly production decreased, the float - glass daily melting volume decreased slightly, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory and soda - ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased, while the soda - ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased. The glass factory's soda - ash inventory days remained unchanged [4]. - **Real - estate Data**: The new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real - estate all showed different degrees of change [4]. Group 4: Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - On the supply side, the expected increase in future supply weakens the raw - material price and cost support, but the typhoon weather has raised concerns about short - term supply release. The pre - festival inventory replenishment of downstream tire factories is basically completed, and the inventory - reduction rhythm of natural rubber spot inventory has slowed down. On the demand side, although some enterprises still face shortages, the overall shipment performance is less than expected, and some enterprises' inventory may increase. Affected by the typhoon weather, the short - term rubber price will fluctuate strongly, with the 01 contract price ranging from 15000 - 16500 yuan/ton. Future attention should be paid to the raw - material output during the peak season in the main production areas and the impact of the La Nina phenomenon on supply. If the raw - material supply is smooth, the price may decline further; otherwise, it will continue to operate within the range [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of some rubber varieties remained stable, while the basis and non - standard price difference changed [5]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between different months of rubber futures contracts showed various changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of rubber in Thailand, Indonesia, and China in July showed different trends. The start - up rate of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased slightly. The domestic tire production in August increased, while the tire export decreased. The import of natural rubber and synthetic rubber increased [5]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded - area inventory and the上期所 factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased, and the inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in the bonded and general - trade warehouses in Qingdao changed [5]. Group 5: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The log futures market oscillated. The spot price of the main standard delivery products remained unchanged, and the inventory decreased significantly. The demand (outbound volume) decreased, while the supply (expected arrival of New Zealand logs) increased. As the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season approaches, attention should be paid to whether the outbound volume improves significantly after entering the seasonal peak season. The current daily outbound volume is about 60,000 cubic meters, but it has not exceeded 70,000 cubic meters. The price below 800 yuan/cubic meter has high "receiving value". In the current pattern of "weak reality and strong expectation", it is recommended to go long on dips [7]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Price**: The log futures price oscillated, and the spot price of main standard delivery products remained unchanged [7]. - **Cost: Import Cost Calculation**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate and import theoretical cost changed slightly [7]. - **Port Shipment and Departure Ship Number**: The port shipment volume and departure ship number from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased [7]. - **Main Port Inventory and Daily Outbound Volume**: The national coniferous log inventory decreased, and the daily outbound volume decreased [7].

Group 1: Report's Investment Ratings - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For natural rubber, before the end of September, rainfall in the main producing areas may continue to support rubber costs and limit the decline of rubber prices. The de - stocking in China is expected to slow down. The tire demand is in the seasonal peak season, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. After the downstream purchasing demand subsides, the rubber price is expected to be weak, but the decline is limited [7] - For BR, the upstream operating rate is expected to rise as the overhauled devices restart, and the supply will increase. The demand shows peak - season characteristics, but the raw material demand decreases after the tire factories finish stocking. The supply - demand situation is becoming looser. There are concerns about cost drag, and the price is expected to be weak, but the large price difference with natural rubber still supports the price [7] Group 3: Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15615 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12425 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11505 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14850 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1835 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1750 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Group 4: Market Information Import and Production - In August 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 66.4 tons, an increase of 7.8% compared with the same period in 2024. From January to August, the total imports were 537.3 tons, a 19% increase [2] - In August 2025, China's synthetic rubber production was 74 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. From January to August, the cumulative production was 584.8 tons, a 10.9% increase [2] - In August 2025, China's output of rubber tire casings was 102.954 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. From January to August, the output was 795.467 million pieces, a 1.6% increase [2] - In the first eight months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase compared with the same period in 2024. In August alone, exports increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [2] Sales of Heavy - Duty Trucks and Automobiles - In August 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a 1% month - on - month decrease and a 35% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative sales were about 708,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase [3] - From January to August, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, up 12.7% and 12.6% year - on - year. New energy vehicle production and sales were 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, up 37.3% and 36.7% year - on - year, accounting for 45.5% of the total new vehicle sales. In terms of exports, 4.292 million vehicles were exported, a 13.7% year - on - year increase, including 1.532 million new energy vehicles, an 87.3% year - on - year increase [3] Group 5: Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 22, 2025, the RU basis was - 865 yuan/ton (- 30), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 765 yuan/ton (- 40), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3388 yuan/ton (+ 132.60), the NR basis was 623.00 yuan/ton (- 58.00). The price of whole latex was 14750 yuan/ton (+ 50), the mixed rubber was 14850 yuan/ton (+ 120), the 3L spot was 15200 yuan/ton (+ 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1835 US dollars/ton (+ 10), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 450 yuan/ton (+ 0), the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2750 yuan/ton (+ 120) [4][5] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 59.67 Thai baht/kg (- 0.12), Thai glue was 55.80 Thai baht/kg (- 0.50), Thai cup lump was 50.35 Thai baht/kg (- 0.15), and the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 5.45 Thai baht/kg (- 0.35) [5] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 66.36% (+ 0.05%), and that of semi - steel tires was 72.74% (+ 0.13%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,235,510 tons (- 22,205.00), the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 154,920 tons (+ 3,180), and the NR futures inventory was 44,553 tons (- 1,411) [6] BR - Spot and spreads: On September 22, 2025, the BR basis was - 55 yuan/ton (- 60), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9250 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11700 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11450 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of private - owned BR in Shandong was 11400 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1732 yuan/ton (- 1) [6] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis BR was 69.72% (- 3.76%) [6] - Inventory: The inventory of BR traders was 7820 tons (- 390), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 25900 tons (- 400) [6]

知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | *业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年9月23日 | | | | 纪元菲 Z0013180 | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品相 | 9月22日 | 9月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | a500 | a320 | J20 | 1.60% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | ട്ടാ | 45 | 202 | 1122.22% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 9700 | 9600 | 100 | 1.04% | 元/肥 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | -50 | -505 | 455 | 90.10% | | | 新疆99硅 | 9000 | 8800 | 200 | 2.27% | | | 基差(新疆) | 820 | 295 | 555 | 188.14% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 9月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rubber market is experiencing a shift in supply and demand dynamics, with increased production in domestic regions and fluctuating prices in Thailand [1] Supply Side - In Thailand, the central market price for rubber water is 55.8 THB/kg, down by 0.5 THB/kg from the previous period, while the cup price is 54 THB/kg, also down by 0.5 THB/kg [1] - In Shandong, the SCRWF price is 14,650 CNY/ton, an increase of 50 CNY/ton [1] - Domestic production in Yunnan has significantly increased, with average dry content ranging from 28% to 35%, which is lower than last year [1] - There is a notable increase in supply from Northern Thailand, with expectations of strong rainfall in the coming weeks that may impact raw material prices [1] Demand Side - Tire production has increased year-on-year, supported by the "old-for-new" policy, leading to strong terminal sales [1] - However, there is a high inventory of semi-steel tires, and sales may decline following the end of heavy truck policies [1] Market Outlook - The current market shows a strong reality but weak expectations for natural rubber, with short-term supply increases leading to price declines [1] - The deep-colored spot market remains strong, with Thai mixed rubber (RU01) at historical highs [1] - Future attention should be on weather conditions in Thailand and domestic policies, with recommendations to buy on dips for RU01, allowing for both left-side and right-side positioning [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2][12][22] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [2][12][22] - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [2][12][22] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume Metrics**: On September 22, the closing price of the main contract was 11,505, up 60 from the previous day and down 200 from the same period last month; the open interest was 70,306, down 4,953 from the previous day and up 51,521 from the same period last month; the trading volume was 95,866, up 1,305 from the previous day and up 59,284 from the same period last month; the warrant quantity was 9,190, down 1,040 from the previous day and down 4,480 from the same period last month; the virtual - to - real ratio was 38.25 [3][13][23]. - **Basis and Spread Metrics**: The butadiene basis was 45, down 110 from the previous day and up 50 from the same period last month; the 8 - 9 month spread was 125, down 60 from the previous day and down 30 from the same period last month; the 9 - 10 month spread was 90, down 40 from the previous day and up 120 from the same period last month [3][13][23]. - **Price and Profit Metrics**: The Shandong market price was 11,550, down 50 from the previous day and down 150 from the same period last month; the spot processing profit was - 238; the on - screen processing profit was - 283, up 162 from the previous day and down 200 from the same period last month; the export profit was 111, up 44 from the previous day and up 124 from the same period last month [3][13][23]. BD (Butadiene) - **Price and Profit Metrics**: The CFR China price was 1,060, down 10 from the previous day and down 30 from the same period last month; the carbon tetrachloride extraction profit was N/A; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 196, up 90 from the previous day and up 110 from the same period last month; the import profit was 527, up 80 from the previous day and up 197 from the same period last month; the export profit was - 896, unchanged from the previous day and up 110 from the same period last month [3][13][23]. Downstream Products - **Profit Metrics**: The butadiene - styrene production profit was 1,063, up 100 from the previous day and down 50 from the same period last month; the SBS (791 - H) production profit was 882, up 70 from the previous day and up 130 from the same period last month; the ABS production profit was N/A [3][13][23]. Variety Spreads - **Spread Metrics**: The Thai mixed - butadiene spread was 3,300, up 170 from the previous day and down 150 from the same period last month; the 3L - butadiene - styrene spread was 3,100, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged from the same period last month; the butadiene standard - non - standard spread was 150, down 50 from the previous day and down 50 from the same period last month; the butadiene - styrene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged from the same period last month; the RU - BR spread was - 54,691, up 5,033 from the previous day; the NR - BR spread was - 57,881, down 51,806 from the same period last month [3][13][23].

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and shifted to a volatile state. The technology sector still dominates the market. With the holiday approaching, capital activity has declined [2]. - Without incremental negative factors, 1.8% may be the high point for the 10 - year Treasury yield, but in the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term downward movement of the yield is also limited, with resistance around 1.75% [2]. - Gold remains in a high - level volatile state, and its volatility may rise again. Silver has high upward elasticity driven by突发事件 but the sentiment fades quickly [2]. - The EC futures contract continues to decline, and the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel exports support the valuation of the black commodity sector, and the spread between hot - rolled and rebar contracts is narrowing [2]. - The decline in iron ore shipments, the rebound in molten iron production, and the restocking demand support the strong price of iron ore [2]. - Coal prices at production areas are stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream restocking demand supports the upward trend of coal futures [2]. - The copper market is in a volatile consolidation phase, and the spot trading volume is good below 80,000 [2]. - There are more supply - side disturbances in Guinea for aluminum, and it is expected to fluctuate widely around the bottom of 2900 in the short term [2]. - The supply of tin ore imports remained low in August, providing fundamental support [2]. - Concerns about marginal increases in oil supply have led to a downward shift in short - term oil prices, but geopolitical factors still provide some support [2]. - The high supply pressure of urea persists, and the progress of urea factory orders before the National Day needs attention [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for PX has further weakened, and the cost side is also weak, putting short - term pressure on prices [2]. - The supply - demand situation of PTA has improved slightly but remains weak in the medium term, with limited driving forces [2]. - The short - fiber market has no obvious short - term drivers and follows the raw material price fluctuations [2]. - The demand for bottle - grade polyester chips has improved temporarily, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose, with limited upside for processing fees [2]. - The new ethylene glycol plant commissioning expectation and the weak terminal market put pressure on the upside of MEG [2]. - With the holiday approaching, the mid - stream of caustic soda is in a wait - and - see mode, and the spot price is under pressure [2]. - The spot procurement enthusiasm for PVC is average, and the market is in a volatile state [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene has weakened, and the price driving force is limited [2]. - The weak oil price expectation puts pressure on the absolute price of styrene [2]. - The cost and supply - demand drivers for synthetic rubber are limited, and it may follow the trends of natural rubber and other commodities [2]. - The sentiment in the LLDPE spot market has weakened, and the basis remains stable [2]. - The number of PP plant overhauls has increased, and the trading volume is average [2]. - The port inventory of methanol has been accumulating, and the price is weak [2]. - After Argentina取消 the export tax, the two -粕 market is under pressure again [2]. - The pig slaughter pressure is high, and the spot price is unlikely to improve before the National Day [2]. - Under the bearish expectation, the corn futures price continues to decline [2]. - The Sino - US talks did not release incremental positive factors, and the oilseed market is in a volatile adjustment phase [2]. - The overseas sugar supply outlook is broad [2]. - With new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure is increasing [2]. - The local domestic sales in the egg market still provide some support for demand, but the long - term trend is bearish [2]. - The early Fuji apples are traded at negotiated prices, and the sales volume is acceptable [2]. - The spot price of red dates fluctuates slightly, and the futures market is in a volatile state [2]. - The overall sentiment in the soda ash market has declined, and the price is trending weakly [2]. - The production and sales of glass have weakened, and the futures price has declined [2]. - Affected by typhoon weather, the rubber price is strongly volatile in the short term [2]. - The market sentiment for industrial silicon has weakened, and the price has declined [2]. - Affected by fundamental sentiment, the polysilicon price has dropped significantly [2]. - With no new news, the market sentiment for lithium carbonate is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance during the peak season [2]. Summaries by Categories Equity Index Futures - Recommend selling short - term put options on the IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and MO2511 contracts near the strike price of 6600 when the index pulls back to collect option premiums [2]. Treasury Futures - The T2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 107.5 and 108.35. For single - side strategies, investors are advised to trade within the range, and consider going long lightly when the price pulls back to the low level if the market sentiment stabilizes, but should pay attention to taking profits in time. For the spot - futures strategy, the basis of the TL contract is oscillating at a high level, and investors can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, consider buying at low levels or buying out - of - the - money call options instead of going long. For silver, sell out - of - the - money put options when the price is high [2]. Freight Index Futures (EC) - Consider the spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [2]. Black Commodities - For steel, try to go long on pullbacks and narrow the spread between the January hot - rolled and rebar contracts. For iron ore, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 780 - 850, and consider a long - iron - ore short - hot - rolled strategy. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1150 - 1300, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy. For coke, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1650 - 1800, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - For copper, the main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000. For aluminum, the main contract reference range is 20,600 - 21,000. For aluminum alloy, the main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,600. For zinc, the main contract reference range is 21,500 - 22,500 [2][3]. Energy and Chemicals - For crude oil, temporarily observe on the single - side, with the support range of WTI at [60, 61], Brent at [63, 64], and SC at [467, 474]. For urea, wait for the implied volatility to rise and then narrow it. For PX, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend and pay attention to the support around 6500. For PTA, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend, pay attention to the support around 4500, and consider a rolling reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For short - fiber, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee oscillates between 800 - 1100. For bottle - grade polyester chips, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500. For ethylene glycol, sell call options on rallies and consider a reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For caustic soda, adopt a short - selling strategy. For PVC, observe. For pure benzene, it will follow the benzene - ethylene and oil price fluctuations in the short term. For benzene - ethylene, short on absolute price rebounds and widen the spread between the November benzene - ethylene and November pure - benzene contracts. For synthetic rubber, pay attention to the support around 11,400. For LLDPE, observe near the previous low. For PP, observe in the short term. For methanol, observe as the downward space is currently limited [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and rapeseed meal, adjust weakly in the short term. For live pigs, pay attention to the reverse spread opportunities between the January - May and March - July contracts. For corn, it is in a weak trend. For oils, the main palm oil contract adjusts weakly in the short term. For sugar, hold short positions. For cotton, adopt a short - selling strategy in the short term. For eggs, control the short - position size. For apples, the main contract runs around 8300. For red dates, it is bearish in the medium - to - long term. For soda ash, observe. For glass, observe. For rubber, observe. For industrial silicon, the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, observe temporarily. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to run between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an energy and chemical options strategy morning report, covering energy (crude oil, LPG), polyolefins (PP, PVC, etc.), polyesters (PX, PTA, etc.), alkali chemicals (caustic soda, soda ash), and other energy and chemical products [3]. - The recommended strategy is to construct an option portfolio strategy mainly as a seller, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - Crude oil (SC2511) latest price is 478, down 7, a decline of 1.38%, with a trading volume of 9.61 million lots and an open interest of 3.53 million lots [4]. - LPG (PG2511) latest price is 4,259, down 34, a decline of 0.79%, with a trading volume of 9.06 million lots and an open interest of 8.12 million lots [4]. - Other varieties such as methanol, ethylene glycol, etc., also have corresponding price, trading volume, and open - interest data [4]. Group 3: Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - For crude oil options, the volume PCR is 0.83, down 0.11, and the open - interest PCR is 0.88, down 0.15 [5]. - For LPG options, the volume PCR is 1.83, up 0.62, and the open - interest PCR is 0.79, down 0.03 [5]. Group 4: Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure level for crude oil is 570 and the support level is 480 [6]. - The pressure level for LPG is 4,500 and the support level is 4,200 [6]. Group 5: Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil options is 30.57%, and the weighted implied volatility is 33.81%, up 0.83 [7]. - The at - the - money implied volatility of LPG options is 17.815%, and the weighted implied volatility is 19.67%, down 0.13 [7]. Group 6: Option Strategies and Recommendations Energy - related Options (Crude Oil) - Fundamental analysis: OPEC plans to discuss early release of 1.6 million barrels per day of production cuts, and Russia has production cut plans from July to December and supports extending the gasoline export ban until November [8]. - Market analysis: Crude oil has shown a bearish market trend since July, with weak fluctuations in September [8]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the mean, open - interest PCR above 1.00 indicates a sideways market, and the pressure and support levels are 570 and 480 respectively [8]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [8]. Energy - related Options (LPG) - Fundamental analysis: PDH plant maintenance is stable, but profit decline may lead to a decrease in capacity utilization [9][10]. - Market analysis: LPG has shown an oversold rebound market trend with pressure above [10]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility has dropped significantly to around the mean, open - interest PCR around 0.80 indicates a sideways market, and the pressure and support levels are 4,500 and 4,200 respectively [10]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [10]. Alcohol - related Options (Methanol) - Fundamental analysis: Port inventory is at a new high, and enterprise inventory and orders have changed [10]. - Market analysis: Methanol has shown a weak market trend with pressure above [10]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility has dropped and fluctuates below the mean, open - interest PCR around 0.80 indicates a weak sideways market, and the pressure and support levels are 2,400 and 2,250 respectively [10]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish put spread strategy; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [10]. Alcohol - related Options (Ethylene Glycol) - Fundamental analysis: Port inventory is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term and may enter a stocking cycle later [11]. - Market analysis: Ethylene glycol has shown a weak market trend with pressure above [11]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates below the mean, open - interest PCR around 0.60 indicates strong bearish power, and the pressure and support levels are 4,500 and 4,250 respectively [11]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish put spread strategy; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold spot long + buy put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [11]. Polyolefin - related Options - Fundamental analysis: PE and PP inventory levels have changed, with PP having higher inventory pressure [12]. - Market analysis: Polypropylene has shown a weak market trend with pressure above [12]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility has dropped to below the mean, open - interest PCR around 0.80 indicates a weakening trend, and the pressure and support levels are 7,400 and 6,700 respectively [12]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: None; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold spot long + buy at - the - money put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [12]. Rubber - related Options - Fundamental analysis: Affected by the rubber tapping season in Southeast Asia and increased overseas supply expectations, the global rubber futures market has continued to decline [13]. - Market analysis: Rubber has shown a weak sideways market trend with support below and pressure above [13]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility has risen sharply and then dropped to around the mean, open - interest PCR below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 17,000 and 14,000 respectively [13]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [13]. Polyester - related Options (PTA) - Fundamental analysis: PTA social inventory has increased slightly, and it is expected to maintain a de - stocking pattern [13]. - Market analysis: PTA has shown a weak bearish market trend with pressure above [13]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high level above the mean, open - interest PCR around 0.70 indicates a sideways market, and the pressure and support levels are 5,000 and 4,400 respectively [13]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [13]. Alkali - related Options (Caustic Soda) - Fundamental analysis: Caustic soda plant inventory has increased [14]. - Market analysis: Caustic soda has shown a downward - trending market with pressure above [14]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high level, open - interest PCR below 0.90 indicates a weak sideways market, and the pressure and support levels are 3,000 and 2,440 respectively [14]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: None; Spot collar hedging strategy: Hold spot long + buy put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [14]. Alkali - related Options (Soda Ash) - Fundamental analysis: Soda ash plant inventory has decreased, and inventory available days have shortened [14]. - Market analysis: Soda ash has shown a low - level sideways market trend with support below [14]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high historical level, open - interest PCR below 0.60 indicates strong bearish pressure, and the pressure and support levels are 1,300 and 1,200 respectively [14]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [14]. Urea - related Options - Fundamental analysis: Urea enterprise inventory is at a high level, and domestic demand is weak [15]. - Market analysis: Urea has shown a weak sideways market trend at a low level [15]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates slightly around the historical mean, open - interest PCR below 0.60 indicates strong bearish pressure, and the pressure and support levels are 1,800 and 1,620 respectively [15]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: Hold spot long + buy at - the - money put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [15].