1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][5][6] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions and inventory data impact prices, with cold - induced production decline providing support, but investors are advised to participate with light positions due to variable geopolitical factors [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Supply is abundant, demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival, and prices are affected by geopolitical and cost factors, with follow - up pressure [2] - **Asphalt**: In February, northern refineries have low production and inventory, while southern refineries' inventory rises during the Spring Festival. Prices are affected by crude oil and raw material imports [2] - **Polyester**: Macro - environment cools, crude oil prices fall, and polyester raw materials are expected to fluctuate with costs, with a first - quarter inventory build - up expected [4] - **Rubber**: The macro - environment cools, and the rubber market has a supply - increase and demand - weakness situation, with prices expected to decline and fluctuate [4] - **Methanol**: Supply may decrease in February, demand from MTO devices may decline, and prices are expected to fluctuate in a wide range at a low level [5] - **Polyolefins**: Supply may increase slightly, inventory will increase passively during the holiday, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: Supply is high, demand from the real - estate downstream is weak, but there is an expected supply reduction due to environmental policies, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI 3 - month contract rose 1.07 dollars to 63.21 dollars/barrel (1.72% increase), Brent 4 - month contract rose 1.03 dollars to 67.33 dollars/barrel (1.55% increase), and SC2603 rose 8 yuan/barrel to 457.8 yuan/barrel (1.78% increase). Geopolitical tensions and API data on inventory changes are key factors [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, FU2603 fell 3.81% to 22701 yuan/ton, LU2604 fell 2.28% to 3168 yuan/ton. Supply is abundant, and demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival [2] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, BU2603 fell 1.72% to 3309 yuan/ton. In February, northern refineries have low production and inventory, while southern refineries' inventory rises during the Spring Festival [2] - **Polyester**: TA605 rose 1.14% to 5150 yuan/ton, EG2605 was flat at 3767 yuan/ton. A 500,000 - ton/year MEG device in South China restarted, and there are inventory build - up expectations in the first quarter [4] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, RU2605 rose 200 yuan/ton to 16180 yuan/ton, NR rose 170 yuan/ton to 13095 yuan/ton, BR rose 285 yuan/ton to 13185 yuan/ton. The macro - environment cools, and supply exceeds demand [4] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, Taicang spot price was 2225 yuan/ton. Supply may decrease in February, and demand from MTO devices may decline [5] - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, East China's PP prices were between 6550 - 6750 yuan/ton. Supply may increase slightly, and inventory will increase during the holiday [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, PVC market prices in East China were stable with a slight increase. Supply is high, demand from the real - estate downstream is weak, but there is an expected supply reduction due to environmental policies [6] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the basis data of various energy - chemical products on February 4, 2026, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes [7] 3.3 Market News - Trump said on February 2 that the US and India reached a trade deal, with India potentially stopping buying Russian oil and the US reducing tariffs on Indian goods. API data showed that last week, US crude and distillate inventories decreased sharply, while gasoline inventory increased significantly [9] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The section presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026 [11][13][15][17][19][22][24][26] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The section shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026 [28][31][35][36][38][39] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The section presents the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products [41][43][46][49][51][53][55] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The section shows the spread and ratio charts between different energy - chemical products [57][59][61][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The section presents the production profit and processing fee charts of various energy - chemical products [67][69] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including the deputy director of the research institute, the research director, and several analysts, along with their professional backgrounds and honors [72][73][74][75]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term trend of oscillation and an intraday view of being on the strong side [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is strong. The reference view is to run strongly [1][5] - **Core Logic**: Domestic Yunnan and Hainan natural rubber producing areas have entered the off - season, and Southeast Asian producing areas will also enter the low - production season. Downstream domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. After the bearish sentiment in the energy and chemical sector is digested, supported by the optimistic supply - demand fundamentals of the rubber market, the Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and strong trend on Tuesday night, and it is expected to maintain this trend on Wednesday [5] 3.2 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is strong. The reference view is to run strongly [1][7] - **Core Logic**: The supply and demand of butadiene, the core raw material of domestic synthetic rubber, have recently tightened, boosting its price to rise significantly. Butadiene accounts for over 70% of the production cost of synthetic rubber, and the rigid increase in the cost side provides a solid foundation for the futures price. After the bearish sentiment in the energy and chemical sector is digested, supported by the optimistic supply - demand fundamentals of the rubber market, the domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and strong trend on Tuesday night, and it is expected to maintain this trend on Wednesday [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, the supply - disruption gap from Iran still exists, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and the subsequent production recovery of OPEC, the oil price should be taken profit at high levels, and the main operation idea is mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums. The current price strongly restricts downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upside space [5]. - For urea, the current situation of the domestic - foreign price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected production recovery at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is advisable to short - allocate on rallies [8]. - For rubber, with the overall decline of commodities and large price fluctuations, it is recommended to trade on the short - term basis of the market, set stop - losses, enter and exit quickly, and strictly control risks. The position of buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 can be re - established [13]. - For PVC, the overall situation of strong domestic supply and weak demand persists. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export - rush sentiment support it, the weak fundamentals affect the industry pattern expectations. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant. The port inventory of styrene is continuously increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, so profits can be gradually taken [19]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene remains unchanged, and there is still room for PE valuation to decline. The coal - based inventory has significantly decreased, supporting the price. The demand is in the off - season, and the raw material inventory of agricultural films may peak [22]. - For polypropylene, the cost - end forecast shows a slight reduction in global oil inventory, and the supply - surplus situation may ease. There are no capacity - expansion plans in H1 2026, and the demand is in seasonal fluctuation. With high inventory pressure, the price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [25]. - For PX, the PX load remains high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans, so PX is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The valuation center has risen, and the short - term profit is also high. The mid - term outlook is good, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following the crude oil price [28]. - For PTA, the supply side maintains high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side of polyester and chemical fiber is affected by the off - season. PTA is in the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. Although the processing fee has increased significantly, there is a risk of correction in the short term, and there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to mid - term opportunities to go long on dips [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the import volume in February is expected to be high. The port inventory will continue to accumulate. There is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction in the mid - term. The valuation is currently moderately high year - on - year, and there is an expectation of further valuation compression in the mid - term without further production cuts in China [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures contract closed down 23.30 yuan/barrel, a decline of 4.93%, at 449.40 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products also declined. China's weekly crude oil data showed that the arrival inventory decreased by 2.48 million barrels to 201.25 million barrels, a 1.22% decline. Gasoline, diesel, and total refined oil commercial inventories increased [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in some areas decreased. The main futures contract decreased by 42.00 yuan/ton, reported at 2247 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit increased by 125 yuan [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot prices in some regions decreased, and the overall basis was reported at 0 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 17 yuan/ton, reported at 1770 yuan/ton [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Multiple commodities declined significantly with large price fluctuations. The short - term market is determined by funds, with low correlation to fundamentals. The long and short sides have different views. The overall situation of tire enterprises' production and inventory is complex, and spot prices of some products decreased [10][11][12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract increased by 57 yuan, reported at 5071 yuan. The spot price in Changzhou increased, and the basis and 5 - 9 spread changed. The overall production rate increased slightly, while the downstream demand decreased slightly. Factory and social inventories changed in different directions [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene increased, and the basis decreased. The spot price of styrene decreased, while the futures price increased, and the basis weakened. Supply - side indicators such as production rate and inventory changed, and demand - side indicators such as the weighted production rate of three S decreased [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract price decreased by 13 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream production rate increased, and production and trader inventories decreased. The downstream average production rate decreased slightly, and the LL5 - 9 spread decreased [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract price increased by 16 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream production rate decreased slightly, and production, trader, and port inventories decreased. The downstream average production rate decreased slightly, and the LL - PP spread and PP5 - 9 spread decreased [23][24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract increased by 36 yuan, reported at 7080 yuan. The CFR price increased, and the basis and 3 - 5 spread changed. The production loads in China and Asia increased. Some devices are in the process of restarting. The import volume from South Korea decreased, and the inventory increased [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract increased by 58 yuan, reported at 5150 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased, and the basis and 5 - 9 spread changed. The production load remained unchanged, some downstream devices were under maintenance or restarting, and the terminal production load decreased. The social inventory increased, and the processing fee changed [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract remained unchanged, reported at 3767 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased, and the basis and 5 - 9 spread changed. The production load increased, some devices at home and abroad were restarted, the downstream production load decreased, and the port inventory increased [32].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Tuesday this week, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, stabilizing in shock, and slightly closing up. The intraday price center shifted slightly up to 16,180 yuan/ton. At the close, the price slightly rose 0.25% to 16,180 yuan/ton, and the premium of the 5 - 9 month spread widened to 130 yuan/ton. After the short - term bearish sentiment was vented, Shanghai rubber futures stopped falling and stabilized. It is expected that the rubber price may maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [6]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday this week, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, weakening downward, and slightly closing down. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,269 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,239 yuan/ton. At the close, it slightly closed down 1.83% to 2,247 yuan/ton. The discount of the 5 - 9 month spread widened to 32 yuan/ton. As the bearish atmosphere intensifies, methanol futures may maintain a weak - volatile trend [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday this week, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2603 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening downward, and significantly closing down. The futures price rose to a maximum of 453.9 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 446.4 yuan/barrel. At the close, the price significantly closed down 4.93% to 449.4 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risk in the Middle East weakens and the Fed's hawkish expectations strengthen, the crude oil premium has significantly retreated, and the short - term oil price has started to correct [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 591,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons or 1.23%. The bonded area inventory was 97,600 tons with a growth rate of 3.34%, and the general trade inventory was 494,100 tons with a growth rate of 0.82%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 5.10 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 2.27 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.40 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.35 percentage points. As of January 30, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.86 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 50.96 percentage points. In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. The annual automobile export exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1%. In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. In 2025, the total sales volume of China's heavy - truck market reached a new high in the past four years, 1.137 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [9][10]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.03%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.35%, a month - on - month slight increase of 0.45%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 10.22%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0378 million tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 28,800 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 13,300 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 112,100 tons compared with 1.9257 million tons in the same period last year. The domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 29.98%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.5%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 7.24%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.45%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 83.37%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.33%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.15%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01%. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.53%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.47 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decrease of 4.79%. As of January 30, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol - to - olefin was - 136 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight recovery of 102 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant recovery of 200 yuan/ton. The port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 993,800 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 26,100 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 174,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 229,500 tons. As of the week of January 29, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 454,200 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 15,800 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 50,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 119,200 tons compared with 573,400 tons in the same period last year [11][12]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of January 23, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 409, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1, and a decrease of 63 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.696 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 36,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 456,000 barrels per day, at a historical high. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 423.8 million barrels, a week - on - week significant decrease of 2.295 million barrels and a significant year - on - year increase of 8.628 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 24.785 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 278,000 barrels; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 415 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 515,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 90.9%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 2.4 percentage points, a month - on - month slight decrease of 3.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 7.4 percentage points. As of January 27, 2026, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 96,982 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 18,190 contracts, and a significant increase of 38,211 contracts or 65.02% compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts. As of January 27, 2026, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 217,962 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 12,191 contracts, and a significant increase of 112,503 contracts or 106.68% compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts [12][13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,900 yuan/ton | 0 yuan/ton | 16,180 yuan/ton | +200 yuan/ton | - 280 yuan/ton | - 200 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,247 yuan/ton | - 35 yuan/ton | 2,247 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | 0 yuan/ton | +5 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 433.0 yuan/barrel | - 0.6 yuan/barrel | 449.4 yuan/barrel | +0.4 yuan/barrel | - 16.4 yuan/barrel | - 1.0 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Related Charts The report lists various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month spreads, inventory, capacity utilization rate, and net position changes, with data sources from Wind and Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [16][28][40].

南华浩淞天然橡胶期货气象分析报告 ——除印尼产区外，其他产区降雨偏少 边舒扬（投资咨询资格证号：Z0012647） 研究助理： 黄超贤（期货从业证号：F03147169） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月3日 一、本周重要气象提示 中长期 气候动态 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO） ：目前Nino3.4指数-0.4（+0.1），弱拉尼娜现象持续，根据 NOAA预测，目前弱拉尼娜现象（-0.9~-0.5）或持续到 2026 年 2 月，并逐渐过渡到 ENSO 中 性，有45%以上概率在6-8月期间转为弱厄尔尼诺现象，产区天气扰动或加剧（厄尔尼诺有概率 会减少西太平洋周边产区雨水，提高干旱风险）。 印度洋偶极子（IOD）： DMI指数为−0.52，印度洋偶极子环比上周进一步减弱，对印尼周边降 雨影响降低。 马登-朱利安振荡（MJO）： 马登-朱利安振荡（MJO）目前于第一阶段区域，预计将在2月中旬 向第三阶段发展，并影响印度洋东岸区域（印尼周边）。 中国 产区 云南产区：云南产区停割，1月降水低于同期水平，土壤湿度正常。近期云南维持偏低气温，西 双版纳最低气温在10℃左右，临沧、普洱 ...

Group 1 - The rubber sector experienced a rise of 2.38% on February 3, with Sanwei Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4067.74, up 1.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14127.1, up 2.19% [1] - Key stocks in the rubber sector showed significant increases, with Sanwei Co., Ltd. closing at 11.33, up 4.04%, and Tongcheng New Materials at 55.98, up 3.27% [1] Group 2 - The rubber sector saw a net inflow of 59.165 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 65.6837 million yuan [1] - Among individual stocks, Kexin New Energy had a main fund net inflow of 84.1227 million yuan, while Sanwei Co., Ltd. had a net inflow of 33.39 million yuan from main funds [2] - The overall trading volume in the rubber sector was substantial, with notable transactions such as Tongcheng New Materials reaching a trading volume of 133,700 shares and a transaction value of 744 million yuan [1]

化工日报 | 2026-02-03 青岛港口库存小幅回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15980元/吨，较前一日变动-380元/吨；NR主力合约12925元/吨，较前一日变动-310 元/吨；BR主力合约12900元/吨，较前一日变动-490元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15800元/吨，较前一日变动-350元/吨。青岛保税区泰混15000元/吨，较前一 日变动-230元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1925美元/吨，较前一日变动-35美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1865 美元/吨，较前一日变动-40美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格13000元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价12700元/吨，较前一日变动-200元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年12月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量80.34万吨，环比增 加24.84%，同比增加25.4%，2025年1-12月累计进口数量667.51万吨，累计同比增加17.94%。 据中国海关总署1月18日公布的数据显示，2025年中国橡胶轮胎出口量达965万吨， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products generally declined on Monday due to factors such as geopolitical events and cost - side impacts. Most products are expected to be in an oscillatory state. For example, crude oil prices dropped significantly due to the potential nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US and the decision of OPEC+ to maintain production. Other products like fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, etc., were also affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost fluctuations [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, WTI 3 - month contract closed down $3.07 to $62.14 per barrel, a 4.71% decline; Brent new 4 - month contract closed down $3.02 to $66.3 per barrel, a 4.36% decline; SC2603 closed at 450 yuan/barrel, down 22.7 yuan/barrel, a 4.8% decline. Iran may hold high - level talks with the US in the coming days. OPEC+ decided to maintain March crude oil production. Brazil's 2025 oil production reached a record 3.77 million barrels per day, up 12.3% from the previous year. The price is expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main contract of fuel oil (FU2603) fell 7.01% to 2,679 yuan/ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2604) fell 5.92% to 3,128 yuan/ton. The supply of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be sufficient. The demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival. The price is expected to oscillate [2] - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2603) fell 4.879% to 3,299 yuan/ton. In the first half of February, the inventory in the north is at a low level, while in the south, the inventory is expected to rise during the Spring Festival. The price is expected to oscillate [2] - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 5,092 yuan/ton, down 3.38%; EG2605 closed at 3,767 yuan/ton, down 3.73%. Some PTA and polyester devices have changes in operation. The price of polyester raw materials is expected to oscillate following the cost [4] - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai rubber (RU2605) fell 380 yuan/ton to 15,980 yuan/ton. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased. The price is expected to be weakly oscillatory [4][6] - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,230 yuan/ton. The domestic production in February is expected to decrease slightly, and the import volume will decline from a high level. The demand from MTO devices is expected to decline. The price is expected to maintain a low - level wide - range oscillation [6] - **Polyolefin**: The price of polyolefin products shows a loss in profit. The supply in February is expected to increase slightly, and the demand will enter a holiday period, with inventory passively increasing. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6][8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The market price of PVC in East, North, and South China increased. The supply in February will remain high, and the demand is expected to weaken. The price is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on February 2, 2026, compared with January 30 [9] 3.3 Market News - Iran and the US will restart nuclear negotiations on Friday. OPEC+ decided to maintain March crude oil production. A preliminary survey shows that US crude oil and distillate inventories are expected to decline last week, while futures inventories may increase [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13][15][17] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [30][32][36] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [43][45][48] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, etc. [59][61][63] - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report shows the production profit charts of products like LLDPE, PP, PTA, etc. [68][70] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include the deputy director of the research institute, the energy - chemical research director, and analysts for different product categories, each with rich experience and professional titles [73][74][75]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair has triggered a significant game between macro - policy expectation reconstruction and industrial fundamentals in the domestic energy - chemical commodity futures market. Warsh's "tight liquidity + low - interest - rate" policy combination has broken the traditional impact logic of monetary policy on commodities, leading to an "upstream pressured, downstream differentiated" market structure [4][5][40]. - In the short term, the market will focus on Warsh's policy implementation rhythm, the trend of the US dollar index, and geopolitical dynamics, with intensified volatility. In the long - term, energy - chemical prices will return to industrial fundamentals, and domestic demand recovery, industrial structure upgrading, and cost advantages will be the core factors determining the trends of each sector [5][40]. Group 3: Summaries of Each Chapter Chapter 1: Domestic Energy - Chemical Sector Experiences a Collective Decline - On February 2, 2026, affected by the cooling of Middle - East geopolitical risks and the nomination of Kevin Warsh, the domestic energy - chemical sector declined collectively. The crude oil futures 2603 contract dropped 7.02% to 449 yuan/barrel, the fuel oil futures 2605 contract fell 6.51% to 2669 yuan/ton, the asphalt futures 2603 contract decreased 4.87% to 3299 yuan/ton, and the methanol futures 2605 contract declined 3.92% to 2252 yuan/ton. The rubber futures sector generally fell 3.5% - 5%, the polyester industry chain sector averaged a 5% decline, and the polyolefin sector averaged a 2.5% decline [10]. Chapter 2: Kevin Warsh's Policy Proposals and Transmission Mechanisms - Warsh's policy stance is a mix of "hawkish and dovish". He advocates active balance - sheet reduction to shrink excess liquidity and supports Trump's call for interest - rate cuts, creating a "tight financial liquidity + loose real - economy financing environment" combination. This makes the traditional "interest - rate cut = easing" logic ineffective, and the commodity market faces a dual game of "US - dollar strengthening suppression" and "economic recovery support" [23]. - The impact of Warsh's nomination on domestic energy - chemical futures is transmitted through three paths: the US - dollar exchange - rate channel (the expected balance - sheet reduction pushes up the US - dollar index, pressuring the prices of international crude oil and other basic energy sources), the capital - flow channel (tightening financial - market liquidity leads to speculative - capital withdrawal and concentrated closing of high - leverage positions), and the demand - expectation channel (the expected economic recovery from interest - rate cuts and the global demand suppression from balance - sheet reduction offset each other) [25]. Chapter 3: Oil - Chemical Futures Sector: Full - Chain Pressure under Crude Oil Dominance - The oil - chemical sector is directly affected by international crude oil price fluctuations. Under the dual impact of the strengthening of the US dollar and the cooling of geopolitical risks, it shows a "full - chain pressured" weak market. The crude oil and fuel oil futures hit the daily limit down, while the asphalt futures are relatively resistant to decline [26]. - The expected balance - sheet reduction by Warsh pushes up the US - dollar index, increasing the procurement cost for non - US - currency buyers of crude oil and suppressing global demand. The cooling of geopolitical risks leads to a rapid return of the previously accumulated geopolitical premium. The global crude oil market has a loose supply - demand fundamental, with an expected daily surplus of 385,000 barrels in 2026 and a 0.3 - percentage - point reduction in the global crude oil demand growth rate forecast [26]. - The fuel oil futures are closely linked to crude oil. The sharp decline in crude oil prices leads to a collapse in the cost side, and the weak demand in the shipping market further suppresses prices. The asphalt futures are relatively resistant due to infrastructure demand support, but the overall demand is expected to decline year - on - year, and the industry is experiencing capacity reduction and increasing concentration [27][29]. Chapter 4: Coal - Chemical Futures Sector: Game Balance between Policy Impact and Cost Advantage - The coal - chemical sector is less directly affected by Warsh's policy. The prices of domestic coal - chemical products are mainly determined by policy regulation and the supply - demand fundamental of coal, and the demand for products like methanol and urea is relatively rigid. The coal - to - olefin route has a significant cost advantage when the international oil price is above 60 US dollars/barrel [30]. - It is expected that the stable coal cost and domestic rigid demand will support the prices of the coal - chemical sector. The methanol futures will maintain a range - bound trend, the urea futures may stabilize and rebound with the start of spring - plowing demand, and the price fluctuations of coal - based ethylene glycol will be limited [30]. Chapter 5: Rubber Futures Sector: Double Pressure from Import Dependence and Weak Overseas Demand - The rubber sector, which is import - dependent and sensitive to overseas demand, shows a "domestic - overseas resonance decline" under Warsh's policy impact. The strengthening of the US dollar increases import costs, and the continuous shrinkage of overseas terminal demand reduces the rubber procurement demand of domestic tire enterprises [31]. - In the short term, the double pressure of the strengthening US dollar and weak overseas demand will suppress rubber prices. In the long term, the incremental demand from the domestic new - energy vehicle industry and the supply contraction in Southeast Asia's main producing areas may support rubber prices [33]. Chapter 6: Polyester Futures Sector: Game Balance between Blocked Cost Transmission and Domestic Demand - The polyester sector shows characteristics of "pressured cost side, differentiated demand side". The decline in crude oil prices drags down raw - material costs, but the cost reduction is not fully transmitted to terminal products, and the profit margins of polyester enterprises improve marginally. The recovery of domestic consumption offsets the pressure from overseas demand [34]. - The polyester futures sector may present a pattern of "weak cost - side fluctuations, demand - side dominance" in the future. In the short term, the prices of PTA and ethylene glycol are under limited cost pressure, and the demand for polyester filament is expected to remain high. In the long term, the recovery of the global economy and domestic textile exports need to be monitored [35]. Chapter 7: Polyolefin Futures Sector: Resonant Decline due to Loose Supply - Demand and Policy Impact - The polyolefin sector is affected by both the loose supply - demand pattern and policy impact. On the supply side, the release of domestic production capacity and the pressure of imports intensify the supply - demand imbalance. On the demand side, the weak recovery of industrial demand fails to support price increases, and the pricing logic has shifted from "cost - side dominated" to "supply - demand - side dominated" [36][38]. - In the short term, the polyolefin sector will be suppressed by the loose supply - demand and policy uncertainties. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, and the demand growth from emerging fields will be the core driving force for structural opportunities [39]. Chapter 8: Summary - The domestic energy - chemical commodity futures market situation triggered by Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh is the result of the game between macro - policy expectation reconstruction and industrial fundamentals. The "tight liquidity + low - interest - rate" policy combination leads to a market structure of "upstream pressured, downstream differentiated" [40]. - Investors should focus on the supply - demand fundamentals and policy transmission logic of each sector, seize structural opportunities, and do a good job in risk prevention [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector: Neutral [1] - Rubber series in the energy and chemical sector: Neutral [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar market: External market ICE raw sugar is consolidating narrowly, with strong Indian sugar - making data pressuring prices. Some institutions are reducing sugar production forecasts for 2026/27, which may support long - term prices. The domestic sugar market has a weak trading atmosphere, and the short - term lacks fundamental and external market guidance [1]. - Rubber market: Natural rubber declined due to the overall fall of commodities, with upstream raw materials providing support and downstream tire enterprises' holidays dragging down capacity utilization. The long - term outlook is bullish. Synthetic rubber's cost - side support is limited, and it is affected by crude oil prices [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar 3.1.1 Market Quotes - SR605 contract closed at 5207 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.78%, and 5197 yuan/ton at night; SR609 contract closed at 5222 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.80%, and 5212 yuan/ton at night [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - Guangxi's spot sugar price was 5252 yuan/ton yesterday, down 41 yuan/ton; sugar - making groups' quotes in Guangxi and Yunnan were adjusted down, and some processing sugar mills' quotes were also lowered [1]. - Stonex expects Brazil's mid - southern sugar production in the 2026/27 season to be 4070 tons, 80 tons less than the previous forecast, and ethanol production to be 36.5 billion liters, 400 million liters more than before [1]. - As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season reached 19.503 million tons, up 18.35% year - on - year, and the number of operating sugar mills increased by 14 [1]. - Green Pool expects the global sugar surplus in the 2026/27 season to drop to 156,000 tons [1]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 50 to 14,069 yesterday [1]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - External market: ICE raw sugar is consolidating narrowly, pressured by strong Indian data, but production cuts may support long - term prices. - Domestic market: Zheng sugar declined yesterday and was weak at night. Pre - Spring Festival stocking is ending, and the market lacks guidance [1]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - SR605 should focus on the 5100 - 5300 range, with partial profit - taking for previous short positions and a short - term high - selling and low - buying strategy [1]. Rubber Series 3.2.1 Market Quotes - As of February 2, RU2605 closed at 15,980 yuan/ton, down 2.32%; NR2603 closed at 12,925 yuan/ton, down 2.34%; BR2603 closed at 12,900 yuan/ton, down 3.66% [4]. 3.2.2 Important Information - Thailand's raw material glue price was 59.1 baht/kg, and cup - lump price was 53.5 baht/kg yesterday [4]. - As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.23%, with保税区 inventory up 3.34% and general trade inventory up 0.82% [4]. - Yesterday's full - latex price was 15,800 yuan/ton, down 2.17%; 20 - standard Thai rubber was 1925 US dollars/ton, down 1.79% [4]. - The price difference between RU and NR narrowed, as did the price difference between mixed standard rubber and RU [4]. - Yesterday's butadiene prices in Shandong and East China were in certain ranges, and the prices of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber in Shandong declined [4]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Natural rubber: Affected by the overall fall of commodities, it is supported by upstream raw materials but dragged down by downstream tire enterprises' holidays. The long - term outlook is bullish [4]. - Synthetic rubber: Short - term supply supports the market, but the acceptance of new supplies by downstream is average, and it is affected by crude oil prices [4]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Rubber series should focus on the lower support. Those not in the market can enter lightly after the adjustment [4].