市场分析 油脂日报 | 2025-07-03 印度棕榈油进口增加，油脂震荡运行 油脂观点 风险 政策变化 中性 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8440.00元/吨，环比变化+104元，幅度+1.25%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约8018.00 元/吨，环比变化+46.00元，幅度+0.58%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9619.00元/吨，环比变化+142.00元，幅度+1.50%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8440.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.60%，现货基差P09+0.00，环比变化 -54.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8160.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元/吨，幅度+0.25%，现货基差Y09+142.00， 环比变化-26.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9770.00元/吨，环比变化+110.00元，幅度+1.14%，现货基差 OI09+151.00，环比变化-32.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：欧盟委员会（European Commission）数据显示，2024年7月1日至2025年6月29日，欧盟2024/25 年度棕榈油进口量为279万吨，而去年同期为349 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-07-02 USDA面积报告变化较小，油脂延续震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8336.00元/吨，环比变化+6元，幅度+0.07%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7972.00 元/吨，环比变化-12.00元，幅度-0.15%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9477.00元/吨，环比变化+62.00元，幅度+0.66%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8390.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元，幅度-0.24%，现货基差P09+54.00，环比变化 -26.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8140.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.25%，现货基差Y09+168.00， 环比变化-8.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9660.00元/吨，环比变化+90.00元，幅度+0.94%，现货基差 OI09+183.00，环比变化+28.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025年6月1-30日马来西亚棕榈油单产环 比上月同期减少0.23%，出油率环比上月同期减少0.08%，产量环比上月同期减少0.65%。 据Wi ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the supply and demand dynamics for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate, with a general tightening in global vegetable oil supply and demand in the 2025/26 period, leading to potential price support [1] Group 2 - For palm oil, Malaysia's production is projected to be close to last year's levels at 19-19.5 million tons, with a slowdown in inventory accumulation expected until October [1] - Indonesia is anticipated to increase production by 2 million tons to 55 million tons, supported by the B40 policy and export demand, maintaining a tight balance in inventory for the second half of the year [1] - International palm oil prices are expected to experience fluctuations in Q3, with a potential strengthening in Q4 [1] Group 3 - In the soybean oil sector, South American soybean production is expected to increase in the 2024/25 season, alleviating supply pressure after July [1] - The U.S. soybean supply and demand are projected to tighten for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons, with weather during critical growth periods posing risks [1] - Domestic soybean oil imports are expected to exceed 10 million tons in Q3, with high operating rates in oil mills leading to strong inventory accumulation expectations [1] Group 4 - For rapeseed oil, a slight increase in global rapeseed production is expected for the 2025/26 season, while export demand is anticipated to decline significantly [1] - The EU is projected to increase production, but prior drought conditions may lead to lower-than-expected yields, while Australian rapeseed production is expected to decrease significantly [1] - Domestic rapeseed imports may decline post-June due to anti-dumping concerns, leading to potential inventory depletion and tighter supply [1] Group 5 - The short-term outlook suggests that with weak crude oil prices and no immediate weather-related speculation for U.S. soybeans, domestic soybean and palm oil inventories are likely to accumulate, making it difficult for oil prices to rise [1] - However, the global vegetable oil supply and demand are expected to tighten in the 2025/26 period, providing strong support for oil prices, with the potential for a seasonal increase in Q4 [1] - Strategy recommendations include monitoring support levels for soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil contracts, with cautious buying near these support levels [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Weakening with fluctuations [5] - **Protein Meal**: Fluctuating [7] - **Corn and Starch**: Fluctuating [8][9] - **Hogs**: Fluctuating [2][9] - **Natural Rubber**: Fluctuating horizontally [9][10][11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Maintaining range-bound fluctuations [12] - **Cotton**: Fluctuating in the short term, with a reference range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [13] - **Sugar**: Weakening with fluctuations in the long term, rebounding with fluctuations in the short term [14][16] - **Pulp**: Fluctuating, with a weakening bias [17] - **Logs**: Weakening with fluctuations [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall**: The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It assesses the supply - demand situation, price trends, and future outlooks for each product [2][5][7][8][9][10][13][14][17][18]. - **Short - term Outlook**: Most products are expected to show a trend of fluctuating, with some having a weakening or strengthening bias. For example, oils and fats are expected to weaken with fluctuations, while protein meal is expected to fluctuate [5][7]. - **Long - term Outlook**: Some products, such as hogs and sugar, are in a downward cycle or face supply - driven downward pressure in the long term [2][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: In 2025, Canada's rapeseed planting area decreased by 2.5% year - on - year. The US soybean planting is completed, and its growth is good. CNPE will raise Brazil's biodiesel blending ratio from 14% to 15% on August 1. China's imported soybean arrivals are large, and domestic soybean oil inventory is rising. The expected increase in palm oil production in June is limited, and export expectations are optimistic. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly declining but remains high [5]. - **Logic**: Due to technical rebounds, last Friday, US soybeans fluctuated strongly, while US soybean oil fluctuated weakly. Yesterday, China's three major oils and fats fluctuated weakly. Considering the macro - environment and industrial factors, oils and fats are expected to continue to weaken with fluctuations [5]. - **Outlook**: Oils and fats may continue to weaken with fluctuations in the near term, but the effectiveness of the lower technical support needs attention [5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On June 30, 2025, international soybean trade premiums and discounts showed different changes. China's imported soybean crushing profit increased week - on - week and year - on - year [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, US soybeans are in a range - bound fluctuation. Domestically, soybean arrivals are increasing, oil mill inventories are rising, and downstream replenishment is insufficient, leading to supply pressure. In the long term, the consumption demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations. Domestic soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or price at low prices after price drops [7]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port remained unchanged, and the domestic average corn price increased by 4 yuan/ton [8]. - **Logic**: Today, China's corn prices mainly rose. The remaining vehicles at North China's deep - processing enterprises decreased due to continuous rainy weather, and the purchase price increased. The demand for corn is being squeezed by wheat, and there are rumors of policy grain auctions [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Driven by the expected supply - demand gap, the price has an upward trend, but there may be corrections due to potential negative impacts from policy grain auctions [9]. 3.4 Hogs - **Industry Information**: On June 30, the spot price of hogs in Henan increased by 0.6% month - on - month, while the futures closing price decreased by 0.96% month - on - month [9]. - **Logic**: At the end of the month, the slaughter rhythm of farms slowed down, and the spot price rose, but the futures faced high - capacity and high - inventory pressure. In the short term, the average slaughter weight is decreasing, but the utilization rate of fattening pens is increasing. In the long term, the production capacity remains high, and the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year [2][9]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate. Recently, the average slaughter weight is slowly decreasing, but farmers' fattening profit still attracts them to hold back hogs. Currently in the off - season of consumption, the price mainly fluctuates [2][9]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: On June 30, the prices of various rubber products in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone and the Thai raw material market showed different changes [9][10]. - **Logic**: The external environment has changed little, and rubber prices are fluctuating horizontally. The raw material price is relatively firm, providing strong support at the bottom. The supply is expected to increase, while the demand is expected to decrease [10][11]. - **Outlook**: Before the fundamentals provide clear guidance, rubber prices may continue to fluctuate with the overall commodity market [11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene in different regions showed different changes [12]. - **Logic**: Recently, the macro - sentiment has been relatively positive, and the BR market has maintained range - bound fluctuations. The overall operating level has dropped to the lowest since May, and inventories have slightly increased [12]. - **Outlook**: The external situation may be temporarily controllable, and the market correction may not be over. Attention should be paid to the previous low support [12]. 3.7 Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of June 30, the number of registered cotton warrants in the 24/25 season was 10,273, and the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton 09 was 13,740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [13]. - **Logic**: In the 25/26 season, cotton production in China and other major producing countries is expected to increase. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. The current commercial inventory is at a relatively low level, which provides support for the price [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, cotton prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **Industry Information**: As of June 30, the closing price of Zhengzhou sugar 09 was 5,807 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton [14]. - **Logic**: Domestically, the 24/25 sugar production season has ended, and the sales rate is high, but there is an expectation of concentrated arrivals of imported sugar. Internationally, the new sugar seasons in Brazil, India, and Thailand are expected to have increased production [14][16]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, due to the expected increase in supply, sugar prices are expected to weaken with fluctuations. In the short term, they are expected to rebound with fluctuations [16]. 3.9 Pulp - **Industry Information**: On the previous trading day, the prices of various pulp products in Shandong showed different changes [17]. - **Logic**: Pulp imports remain high, and prices are in a downward trend. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream paper enterprises' inventories are increasing. The US dollar price is continuously falling, and the pulp market is facing downward pressure [17]. - **Outlook**: Due to weak supply - demand and potential positive impacts from changes in delivery rules, pulp futures are expected to fluctuate [17]. 3.10 Logs - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of logs in Jiangsu and Shandong remained stable, and the futures price of LG2507 decreased [18]. - **Logic**: Yesterday was the last trading day before the first log contract LG2507 entered the delivery month, and the price fluctuated and declined. The total inventory decreased, and the market is in the off - season. In the short term, the fundamentals are in a weak balance [18]. - **Outlook**: In the medium term, the market will gradually return to being dominated by fundamentals, and the far - month prices are expected to be weak [18].

研究报告 2025 年油脂半年报 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | 农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 | | | | 电话：13609351809 | | | | 邮箱：445012260@qq.com | | | | 报告日期：2025 年 7 | 月 | 1 星期二 | 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 美联储进入降息周期后，市场对 2025 年美联储 降息次数的预期差异较大，特朗普对全球的贸易以 及国际局势的不确定性将增加将扰动油脂市场。国 际、国内宏观政策以对油脂的影响比重明显增强， 在整体供需收紧的格局下，油脂重心有望维持高位。 棕榈油，2025 下半年度全球供应格局仍偏紧， 棕油价格支撑偏强，远有树龄老化带来的供给增长 瓶颈，近有低库存支撑，需求端亦有印尼 生物柴油 计划的不确定性，供需不确定性较高。未来重点关 注产地库存节奏，只要产地累库不明显，棕油价格 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the current challenges and dynamics within the poultry and soybean meal industry, particularly focusing on price fluctuations and inventory pressures [1][4][30] - The price of chick seedlings has dropped significantly, falling below 2 yuan per chick by the end of June, compared to around 3 yuan at the end of May, indicating a rapid decline in the breeding sector [1] - The processing segment of poultry products is currently the most profitable, although sales are weak, leading to high inventory levels, especially in the Shandong region [1][10] Group 2 - The oil mills are experiencing inventory pressure, with some urging customers to pick up products to avoid storage issues, and the operating rate is expected to remain high in Shandong by mid to late July [2][44] - The daily usage of soybean meal has increased, primarily due to formula adjustments rather than an increase in feed sales, with expectations for stable usage in July compared to June [3][33] - The soybean meal inventory pressure is anticipated to rise significantly by mid-July, with feed factories reluctant to accept contracts due to a preference for higher protein content soybean meal [4][10] Group 3 - The procurement attitude for soybean meal for the period from October to January remains cautious due to policy uncertainties, with expectations that the basis may weaken compared to July [5][34] - The current soybean meal addition ratio in chicken feed has increased to 30%, up from 25% in late March, indicating a shift in feed formulation strategies [7][49] - Seasonal characteristics of poultry feed sales show a peak demand period from May to October, with a notable increase expected in August and September [8][45] Group 4 - The sales progress of soybean meal contracts shows a disparity, with approximately 80% of contracts for July to September sold, while only about 20% for October to January [13][41] - The quality of Brazilian soybeans has been noted to be lower this year, affecting the protein content and overall supply dynamics [14][22] - The overall supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient in October, but the tightness of supply in December to February remains to be observed [28][46] Group 5 - The market for soybean meal is characterized by a balance of high supply and high demand, with expectations for better demand in the third quarter compared to the fourth [30][33] - The pressure on soybean meal prices is expected to be limited in July, but caution is advised for August due to potential fluctuations [31][54] - The current physical inventory of soybean meal is around 7 days, with Shandong showing higher inventory levels exceeding 10 days, indicating a passive accumulation trend [42][44]

油脂日报 | 2025-06-27 昨日三大油脂价格震荡，美豆产区天气是风险较小，窗口期逐步缩小，压力逐步显现。 策略 中性 风险 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8360.00元/吨，环比变化+16元，幅度+0.19%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约8000.00 元/吨，环比变化+16.00元，幅度+0.20%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9482.00元/吨，环比变化+6.00元，幅度+0.06%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8460.00元/吨，环比变化+0.00元，幅度+0.00%，现货基差P09+100.00，环比变 化-16.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8180.00元/吨，环比变化+10.00元/吨，幅度+0.12%，现货基差Y09+180.00， 环比变化-6.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9630.00元/吨，环比变化-30.00元，幅度-0.31%，现货基差OI09+148.00， 环比变化-36.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：美国农业部（USDA）公布数据，民间出口商报告对埃及出口销售11万吨大豆，于2024/2025 年度交货。美国大豆市场年度始于9月1日。美国 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-06-26 巴西生柴政策变化，油脂震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8344.00元/吨，环比变化+18元，幅度+0.22%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7984.00 元/吨，环比变化+34.00元，幅度+0.43%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9476.00元/吨，环比变化-96.00元，幅度-1.00%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8460.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元，幅度-0.24%，现货基差P09+116.00，环比变 化-38.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8170.00元/吨，环比变化+10.00元/吨，幅度+0.12%，现货基差Y09+186.00， 环比变化-24.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9660.00元/吨，环比变化-90.00元，幅度-0.92%，现货基差 OI09+184.00，环比变化+6.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据巴西国家能源政策委员会（CNPE）官员，巴西将生物柴油在柴油中的强制掺混比例从14% 上调至15%，将汽油中乙醇强制掺混比例从27%上调至30%。据马来西亚棕榈油协会（MPOA）发布的数据，马来 西亚6 ...

Core Insights - The futures market for oils has seen a significant increase, with soybean oil's main contract rising above 8000 yuan/ton, reflecting a daily increase of 0.58% [1] - Palm oil's main contract has also experienced a notable rise of nearly 1%, reaching 8378 yuan/ton [1] - The main contract for rapeseed oil has seen its decline narrow to 0.37%, now priced at 9477 yuan/ton [1] - A key development influencing these movements is Brazil's decision to raise the mandatory blending ratio of biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15% [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2) Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils and fats oscillated and declined yesterday. Geopolitical factors caused a significant drop in crude oil prices, and the improved weather in US production areas put downward pressure on the overall oils and fats market [3] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,326.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 194 yuan or 2.28% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,950.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 176.00 yuan or 2.17%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,572.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 149.00 yuan or 1.53% [1] - **Spot Prices**: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,480.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140.00 yuan or 1.62%, with a spot basis of P09 + 154.00, an increase of 54.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,160.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120.00 yuan/ton or 1.45%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 210.00, an increase of 56.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,750.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150.00 yuan or 1.52%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 178.00, a decrease of 1.00 yuan [1] - **Market News**: US President Trump called on Israel to stop bombing Iran, stating that it "seriously violated" the fragile cease - fire agreement between the two countries announced a few hours ago. China's central bank and five other departments jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", which mentioned implementing monetary policies and strengthening counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments. In the short term, the domestic soybean crushing volume remains at a peak level, with soybean oil production exceeding downstream提货量, and inventory continuing to rise. As of the end of the 25th week of 2025, the domestic soybean oil inventory was 986,000 tons, an increase of 29,000 tons or 3.06% compared to the previous week. Among them, the coastal inventory was 892,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons or 2.59% compared to the previous week [2] - **Import Prices**: The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) was 613 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (August shipment) was 603 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (July shipment) was 1,118 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (September shipment) was 1,116 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 22 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of imported rapeseed oil from Canada (July shipment) was 1,050 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (September shipment) was 1,030 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (July shipment) was 461 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of US West soybeans (July shipment) was 456 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (August shipment) was 462 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton. The import soybean premium quotes: Mexico Gulf (July shipment) was 226 cents/bushel, a decrease of 3 cents/bushel; US West Coast (July shipment) was 199 cents/bushel, a decrease of 3 cents/bushel; Brazilian ports (August shipment) was 200 cents/bushel, unchanged [2] Strategy - The recommended strategy is neutral [4]