Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Volatile [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - CSI 50: Volatile [3] - CSI 300: Volatile [3] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Bullish volatility [4] - Silver: Bullish volatility [4] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Wide-range volatility [6] - Palm oil: Wide-range volatility [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range volatility [6] - Soybean meal: Bearish volatility [6] - Rapeseed meal: Bearish volatility [6] - Soybean No. 2: Bearish volatility [6] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile [6] - Live pigs: Volatile and slightly bearish [7] - Rubber: Volatile [7] - PX: Wait-and-see [7] - PTA: Volatile [7] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views - The black sector is affected by trade frictions, and the iron ore market focuses on supply and steel demand; coking coal and coke face production and demand adjustments; steel products have supply and demand contradictions and are expected to continue to fluctuate and adjust [2] - The stock index futures/options market has improved bullish sentiment but still requires risk reduction; the bond market shows a slight upward trend; the gold and silver markets are expected to be bullish due to various factors [3][4] - The forestry and light industry products have different trends, with logs likely to return to range-bound, pulp at the bottom, and paper products showing various fluctuations [6] - The oil and fat market is affected by factors such as inventory, production, and demand, and is expected to continue wide-range volatility; the meal market is under supply pressure and is expected to be bearish [6] - The agricultural products market, such as live pigs, has supply and demand imbalances and is expected to be volatile; the rubber market is affected by weather and demand, and is expected to be wide-range volatile [7] - The chemical products market, such as PX, PTA, and MEG, is affected by factors such as oil prices and supply and demand, and has different trends [7][9] Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Trade frictions and supply issues affect the market. Steel mill profits are high, and iron ore prices are expected to be volatile. The key lies in steel demand after the holiday [2] - Coking coal and coke: Domestic coking coal production is expected to be lower, but Mongolian coal imports are at a record high. Coke demand is strong, and the first round of price increases has been implemented, but the second round has basically failed. Pay attention to low-buying opportunities [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Rebar has a large supply pressure, and the key is the demand recovery in October. High supply and inventory accumulation bring pressure, and prices need to match rapid de-stocking to stabilize [2] - Glass: The short-term supply and demand pattern has not improved significantly, with increased production capacity utilization and inventory accumulation. Real estate completion drags down demand, and pay attention to policy and demand recovery [2] - Soda ash: The supply and demand are under pressure, and the price follows the oil price. The PTA supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening, and the price follows the cost [7][9] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: The market sentiment has improved, but it is still recommended to reduce risk preference and control positions [3][4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond has declined, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations. The bond market shows a slight upward trend, and long positions can be held lightly [4] - Gold and silver: Affected by factors such as interest rates, geopolitics, and inflation, the pricing mechanism is changing, and the market is expected to be bullish [4] Forestry and Light Industry Products - Logs: The port inventory is increasing, and the cost support is strengthening. After the holiday, the supply may increase, and the demand is expected to gradually recover. The price is expected to return to range-bound [6] - Pulp: The spot price is stable, the cost support is weakening, and the demand improvement is uncertain. The price is expected to be at the bottom [6] - Offset paper: The production is relatively stable, the demand is expected to improve, but the profit is low. The price is expected to be volatile [6] Oil and Fat and Meal Products - Oil and fat: Affected by factors such as inventory, production, and demand, the market is expected to continue wide-range volatility. Pay attention to Brazilian soybean sowing and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [6] - Meal: Affected by factors such as global trade and supply and demand, the market is under supply pressure and is expected to be bearish. Pay attention to Brazilian soybean sowing and soybean imports [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The supply is relatively abundant, the demand may decline, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly bearish [7] - Rubber: Affected by weather and demand, the production is affected, and the demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to be wide-range volatile [7] Chemical Products - PX: The supply and demand are under pressure, and the price follows the oil price. The PXN spread is suppressed [7] - PTA: The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the price follows the cost [7][9] - MEG: The port inventory is increasing, the supply pressure is increasing, and the price support may be weakened [9] - PR: The market rebounds weakly and may be volatile and bearish [9] - PF: The downstream demand is good, but the international oil price is weak, and the price may be bearish [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The current main logic is centered around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main bullish factor is that the US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The main bearish factors are that the prices of oils and fats are historically high, domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season [2] - The basis of soybean oil is 180, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish. The commercial inventory of soybean oil on August 22 was 1.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, which is bearish. The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish. The short positions of the main soybean oil contract are increasing, which is bearish. It is expected that soybean oil Y2601 will fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 [2] Daily Views - Palm Oil - The MPOB report for August shows a decrease in Malaysian palm oil production, exports, and inventory. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production - increase season [3] - The basis of palm oil is - 70, with the spot price lower than the futures price, which is bearish. The port inventory of palm oil on August 22 was 580,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%, which is bullish. The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish. The long positions of the main palm oil contract are decreasing, which is bullish. It is expected that palm oil P2601 will fluctuate in the range of 9,100 - 9,500 [3] Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - The MPOB report indicates a decrease in Malaysian palm oil production, exports, and inventory in August. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production - increase season [4] - The basis of rapeseed oil is 201, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish. The commercial inventory of rapeseed oil on August 22 was 560,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%, which is bearish. The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish. The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are decreasing, which is bullish. It is expected that rapeseed oil OI2601 will fluctuate in the range of 9,700 - 10,100 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish factor: The US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - Bearish factors: The prices of oils and fats are historically high, domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]

Group 1: Palm Oil - Indonesia's Energy Minister announced a mandatory B50 biodiesel policy to be implemented by 2026, leading to expectations of reduced palm oil exports from Indonesia [1] - MPOA data indicates a 2.35% decrease in Malaysia's palm oil production for September 1-30, with market surveys suggesting a potential decline in palm oil inventory for the first time in seven months due to increased exports and decreased production [1] - Concerns exist regarding India's potential increase in vegetable oil import tariffs, and domestic demand is under pressure following the end of the dual festival stocking period [1] Group 2: Gold - Concerns about a potential U.S. federal government shutdown have increased demand for safe-haven assets, with the World Gold Council reporting a 12% year-on-year increase in global central bank gold purchases in Q3 [1] - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes indicated a consensus on the necessity of another interest rate cut this year, putting pressure on the U.S. dollar [1] - Factors to watch include changes in inflation statements, adjustments to the balance sheet plan, and developments in geopolitical conflicts [1] Group 3: Copper - Global copper supply is tightening, exacerbated by production cuts at Chile's Escondida copper mine, with LME copper inventory dropping below 150,000 tons, the lowest level since 2005 [1] - Traditional sectors are experiencing weak demand, which may suppress downstream replenishment intentions due to high copper prices [1] - Key events to monitor include labor negotiations at Chile's Antofagasta copper mine and the resumption progress at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine [1] Group 4: Live Pigs - The inventory of breeding sows remains high, leading to sufficient supply of market pigs, while post-festival demand recovery has not met expectations [1] - National breeding sow inventory is being gradually reduced, with plans to decrease by 1 million heads within six months [1] - Events to watch include policy intervention signals, slaughter rhythm and weight, and the impact of weather changes on transportation and consumption demand [1] Group 5: Shipping - A ceasefire agreement in Gaza has been confirmed, and global fleet capacity is expected to grow by 6.3% by 2025, creating significant pressure from new ship deliveries [1] - The period from late Q3 to early Q4 is traditionally a low season, with spot rates continuing to decline [1] - Risks include potential seasonal demand for Christmas stocking, which may lead to a temporary increase in cargo volume, and ongoing threats from Houthi forces in Yemen [1] Group 6: Coking Coal - Weekly inventory of coking coal has decreased by 132, reaching 36.324 million tons, with recent mining accidents raising concerns about production capacity [2] - The long-term contract price for Mongolian coal has increased by $3.8 per ton in Q4, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards traditional peak season demand [2] - Key events to monitor include the maintenance of high iron water production capacity and the fulfillment of steel demand [2] Group 7: Industrial Silicon - The southwestern region is approaching a dry season, with expectations of rising electricity prices pushing production costs higher [2] - Institutions forecast a 5.95% month-on-month increase in October's polysilicon output to 142,500 tons, with a 3.7% increase in operating rates to 50.05% [2] - Events to watch include the progress of polysilicon storage plans and discussions on revising energy consumption standards for industrial silicon [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - India and Southeast Asian origin vegetable oil low inventories, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, limited palm oil production growth potential in Southeast Asia, and the expected decline in exportable volume due to increasing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the oil price center. Oils are currently in a state of balanced or slightly loose real - world supply - demand, with a tight expectation. Before the inventories in consumption areas and origin are fully accumulated and there is no negative feedback in consumption area demand, the medium - term outlook is oscillating and bullish. Given the current high valuation, observe high - frequency data and adopt a buy - on - dips - after - stabilization approach for now [11][12][13] Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In September, the prices of the three major oils declined. Foreign capital seats reduced their net long positions in oils, mainly due to average palm oil export data from Malaysia, indicating either weak downstream demand or high oil production in other regions. Mid - month, the prices of the three major oils dropped significantly due to short - term discounted soybean oil sales in Argentina, and then rebounded due to the mid - term global palm oil supply - demand balance and a tight - supply expectation at the end of the year. During the National Day holiday, the proposed B50 plan in Indonesia for 2026 and the expected reduction of 500 million tons of palm oil exports led to a sharp rebound in the oil market [11] - **International Oils**: The MPOB monthly report on October 10 showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased to 2.36 million tons, with a slight decline in production and a slight increase in exports. The significant decline in domestic apparent consumption led to a year - on - year increase of about 350,000 tons in Malaysian palm oil inventory. Indonesian data lags, but if production cannot remain high in the long term and global oil demand is stable, Indonesian inventory is expected to remain low. After the fourth quarter, the production season will enter a decline phase. Both Indian and Indonesian inventories are lower year - on - year, which will support palm oil prices in the medium and long term [11] - **Domestic Oils**: In September, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was decent, and the spot basis was stable. The total domestic oil inventory was about 325,000 tons higher than last year, indicating sufficient oil supply. Rapeseed oil inventory was 187,000 tons higher than last year, palm oil inventory was 47,000 tons higher, and soybean oil inventory increased by 90,000 tons year - on - year. In the next two months, soybean crushing volume will maintain a high - level and slightly declining trend. Palm oil imports are expected to remain at a slightly below - neutral level, keeping inventory stable. The high price of rapeseed oil has slowed down the de - stocking process. However, due to the high margin required for Canadian rapeseed imports, the total domestic oil inventory will remain high in the short term and is expected to decline in the medium term [11] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a bullish unilateral strategy. Given the current high valuation, observe high - frequency data and use a buy - on - dips - after - stabilization approach [13] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The document presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts, including the basis of FCPOV25.MDE FOB palm oil (Malaysia), palm oil 01 contract, soybean oil 01 contract, and rapeseed oil 01 contract, as well as their seasonal basis charts, to show the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][21][23] 3. Supply Side - **Production and Exports**: Charts show the monthly production and exports of Malaysian palm oil, Indonesian palm oil + palm kernel oil, as well as the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, and the monthly imports of rapeseed and rapeseed oil, reflecting the supply situation of different oils [28][29][30] - **Weather in Palm - Producing Areas**: Charts display the weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas, along with the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate, which may affect palm oil production [34][36] 4. Profit and Inventory - **Inventory Charts**: Present the total inventory of the three major domestic oils, Indian imported vegetable oil inventory, palm oil import profit and commercial inventory, soybean oil spot crushing profit and major oil mill inventory, rapeseed spot average crushing profit and East China rapeseed oil commercial inventory, and Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil inventories, reflecting the inventory and profit situation of different oils [42][45][47] 5. Cost Side - **Cost Charts**: Show the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches, Malaysian palm oil import cost price, CNF import price of rapeseed oil, and the import cost price of Chinese rapeseed, reflecting the cost situation of different oils [52][56] 6. Demand Side - **Trading Volume**: Charts show the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year, reflecting the demand situation of different oils [59] - **Biodiesel Profit**: Charts show the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil), which may affect the demand for oils in the biodiesel field [61]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The implementation of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan in the second half of 2026 will significantly increase palm oil consumption and support palm oil prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,570 yuan/ton, up 342 yuan or 3.71% from the previous day; the soybean oil 2601 contract closed at 8,332 yuan/ton, up 192 yuan or 2.36%; the rapeseed oil 2601 contract closed at 10,248 yuan/ton, up 204 yuan or 2.03% [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Guangdong, the spot price of palm oil was 9,450 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan or 4.07%, with a spot basis of P01 + -120 yuan, up 28 yuan. In Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,520 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan or 2.77%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 188 yuan, up 38 yuan. In Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,500 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan or 2.14%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 252 yuan, up 16 yuan [1] - **Import Prices**: Argentina's soybean oil (November shipment) C&F price was 1,114 dollars/ton, down 8 dollars/ton from the previous day; (January shipment) was 1,107 dollars/ton, down 17 dollars/ton. Canadian rapeseed oil (November shipment) C&F price was 1,095 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars/ton; (January shipment) was 1,075 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars/ton. Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) C&F price was 510 dollars/ton, up 7 dollars/ton; (January shipment) was 520 dollars/ton, up 8 dollars/ton. US Gulf soybeans (November shipment) C&F price was 459 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton; US West soybeans (November shipment) was 438 dollars/ton, up 7 dollars/ton; Brazilian soybeans (November shipment) was 483 dollars/ton, up 8 dollars/ton [2] - **Import Premiums**: Mexican Gulf (November shipment) soybean import premium was 220 cents/bushel, down 12 cents/bushel; US West Coast (November shipment) was 165 cents/bushel, unchanged; Brazilian ports (November shipment) was 285 cents/bushel, unchanged [2] - **Supply and Demand**: In the 2024/25 market year, China's edible vegetable oil production was 3,144 million tons. Due to increased production, the import volume of edible vegetable oil in 2024/25 was reduced by 500,000 tons to 7.06 million tons, with palm oil and sunflower oil imports reduced by 300,000 tons and 200,000 tons respectively. The average ex - factory prices of national standard third - grade soybean oil, third - grade rapeseed oil, and first - grade peanut oil in 2024/25 were 8,089 yuan/ton, 9,585 yuan/ton, and 14,635 yuan/ton respectively, all within the estimated range. There were no adjustments to the supply - demand forecast data for China's edible vegetable oil in 2025/26 [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [4]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Grease Market Review: Positive Expectations from Indonesia's Biodiesel Policy, Palm Oil Leads the Grease Market" [1] - Date: October 9, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The market outlook for palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil is oscillating upward. Key positive factors include favorable expectations from Indonesia's biodiesel policy, increased palm oil consumption for biodiesel in Indonesia, palm oil entering the production - reduction season, continuous reduction of domestic rapeseed oil inventory, and a high probability of reduced US soybean yield [5] 3. Summary by Directory Price Performance - Today, palm oil led the domestic grease market. The closing price change rate of palm oil's 01 contract was 4.13%, that of soybean oil's 01 contract was 2.69%, and that of rapeseed oil's 01 contract was 2.01% [2] Fundamental Analysis - **Market Analysis** - Palm oil led the grease market today due to the recent rebound of US soybeans and US soybean oil, Indonesia's plan to enforce the B85 biodiesel policy in 2026, and the expected decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September [4] - Macroeconomic environment: The US federal government is in a "shutdown" state, and geopolitical and economic uncertainties are increasing. The US dollar has been strengthening recently, and crude oil prices are fluctuating [4] - US soybeans: Affected by the US government shutdown, recent US soybean data updates have been suspended. Considering the US soybean's good - to - excellent rate and weather conditions this year, there is a high probability of a decline in US soybean yield and production in the later period. The market hopes for a package of assistance plans for farmers from the US government and demand improvement. However, China has not imported US soybeans yet, and Sino - US trade relations are still uncertain, so US soybean export demand faces great uncertainty. The expected seasonal decline in domestic imported soybeans may lead to a peak - to - decline in domestic soybean oil inventory [4] - Palm oil: MP0A and SPPOMA data show that Malaysia's palm oil production in September decreased by 2.35% and 2.42% month - on - month respectively. ITS and AmSpec data show that Malaysia's palm oil exports in September increased by 9.6% and 7.3% month - on - month respectively. The market expects a slight decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September. Indonesia's biodiesel demand for palm oil is expected to increase. GAKPI data shows that from January to July 2025, Indonesia's domestic biodiesel consumption of palm oil was 7.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 793,000 tons. If Indonesia enforces the B85 biodiesel policy in 2026, the domestic biodiesel consumption of palm oil will reach 20.1 billion liters, a year - on - year increase of about 29% [4] - Rapeseed oil: Affected by China's restrictions on Canadian rapeseed imports and the fact that Russian rapeseed has not been widely available on the market, the expected volume of domestic rapeseed imports is low, and domestic rapeseed oil inventory may continue to decline [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Palm oil and soybean oil are not recommended to be chased high, with limited upside potential; rapeseed oil can be bought on dips with small long positions [4] Core View - With the news that Indonesia's B50 R & D is accelerating and Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to decline, the domestic vegetable oil sector opened higher and the palm oil led the rise. However, considering the current inventory situation of various oils, it is not advisable to chase high for palm oil and soybean oil, while rapeseed oil can be bought on dips [3][4] Summary According to Related Content Indonesia's B50 Policy - During the National Day holiday on October 7, Indonesian officials said that the B50 laboratory test was completed and planned to implement the B50 biodiesel plan next year, but the specific implementation time was undetermined. If B50 is implemented, Indonesia's demand for palm - based biofuel will rise to 20.1 billion liters, compared with 15.6 billion liters required by the current B40 policy [3] Malaysia's Palm Oil Situation - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (NPOB) will release the official monthly report on October 10. A survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September will decline for the first time since February due to increased exports and decreased production. The export volume in September is expected to be 1.427 million tons, a 7.7% month - on - month increase, the highest since November last year. The crude palm oil production in September is expected to be 1.794 million tons, a 3.3% month - on - month decrease, the lowest since June [3] Domestic Vegetable Oil Inventory and Investment Suggestions - The domestic soybean inventory is 7.79 million tons, a five - year high, and 40 ships of zero - tariff soybeans from Argentina are on the way. The soybean oil inventory of oil mills is 1.46 million tons, also a five - year high. The palm oil inventory is 524,000 tons, which can meet the rigid demand. Due to the China - Canada trade dispute, the subsequent arrival of rapeseed is low, and the rapeseed oil inventory of oil mills is being depleted. Among the three major oils, rapeseed oil has the strongest fundamentals and high resistance to decline [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains the rating, but the specific rating is not clearly stated [1] Core View - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of the oil and fat industry, including futures prices, spot prices, industry news, and production and trade data [1][2][4] According to the Related Catalog 1. Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Malaysian palm oil main contract was 4,546 ringgit/ton with a daily gain of 1.65%, and 4,560 ringgit/ton at night with a gain of 0.33%. The CBOT soybean oil main contract was at 51.29 cents/pound with a gain of 0.49% [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,060 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,450 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,250 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton [1] - **Base Difference**: The base difference of palm oil in Guangdong was - 168 yuan/ton, that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 310 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 206 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spread**: The price spread between the rapeseed and palm oil futures main contracts was 816 yuan/ton, the soybean and palm oil futures main contracts was - 1,088 yuan/ton, etc. [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Indonesia's Bio - diesel Policy**: Indonesia is moving towards a B50 biodiesel policy, planning to launch it next year. The implementation of the B50 policy will require 2,010 million liters of palm - based bio - fuel annually, compared with 1,560 million liters for the current B40 policy [2][3] - **Malaysia's Palm Oil Data**: From September 1 - 30, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports were estimated to be 1,013,140 tons, a 13.41% decrease from the previous month. Production was estimated to decrease by 2.42% (SPPOMA data) or 2.35% (MPOA data). The estimated inventory in September was 215 tons, a 2.5% decrease from August [4] - **Indonesia's Palm Oil Exports**: From January to August 2025, Indonesia exported 16.2 million tons of crude and refined palm oil, a 13.56% year - on - year increase, with 2.56 million tons exported in August alone [4] - **India's Oil Imports**: In September, India's soybean oil imports increased by 37.3% month - on - month to 505,000 tons, while total edible oil imports decreased by 0.7% to 1.61 million tons. Sunflower oil imports increased by 5.8% to 272,000 tons [5] - **US Crop Forecasts**: S&P Global Commodity Insights lowered the forecast of US soybean average yield to 53.0 bushels/acre and corn average yield to 185.5 bushels/acre [5] - **Brazil's Soybean Forecast**: StoneX predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would reach 178.6 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the September forecast [5] - **Argentina's Labor Issue**: Argentina's government suspended the planned indefinite strike of oil workers' unions in processing plants [6] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is both 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2, 2] interval [7]

豆油、棕榈油、菜籽油 姓名：毕慧 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0268536 投资咨询证号：Z0011311 电话：0411-84807266 邮箱：bihui@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协 会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证 书，本人承诺以勤勉的职业 态度，独立、客观地出具本 报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人 不会因本报告中的具体推荐 意见或观点而直接或间接接 收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 油脂 | 周报 2025 年 10 月 9 日 油脂 专业研究·创造价值 政策扰动持续 油脂强弱分化 核心观点 豆油： 由于美国政府关门造成关键数据缺失，难以准确评估美国豆油阶段性供需 格局变化。此外，巴西矿业和能源部表示，可能无法在 2026 年 3 月前将生柴 掺混比例从 15%上调至 16%。经销商估计印度 9 月份棕榈油进口量降至四个月 来最低水平，而豆油进口量将会升至三年新高，因为精炼企业从购买棕榈油转 向购买价格更便宜的豆油。随着国际豆油供应扰动减弱，需求保持强劲，外盘 美豆油期价震荡偏强运行对国内豆油期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic driving force for edible oils is insufficient, and future price movements depend on positive factors from the origin. In the short - term, the market will trade within a range. Pay attention to China - US and China - Canada relations, the de - stocking progress of palm oil origins, and the implementation of the B40 plan. Consider opportunities such as the positive spread trading of rapeseed oil 1 - 5 contracts and buying palm oil 01 contracts on dips [1]. - In the near - term, there is still pressure on domestic edible oils. The supply of soybeans is sufficient, and there is a risk of over - inventory for soybean oil. Rapeseed oil has high inventory, and palm oil supply may increase. The demand for edible oils is mainly for essential needs, but the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays may boost catering consumption [3][5]. - In the long - term, the edible oil market will focus on the final determination of the US biofuel obligation policy, the supply - demand balance of palm oil origins, the progress of Indonesia's B40 and B50 policies, and China - US and China - Canada relations [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The US biodiesel policy is uncertain. In the palm oil market, Malaysia entered the production - reduction season in September, while Indonesia's production is normal. The B40 plan in Indonesia may speed up at the end of the year. For soybean oil, Brazil's soybean sowing progress is fast, and global soybean supply is abundant. The purchase of Argentine soybeans can make up for part of the US soybean gap, delaying the tight supply of domestic soybean oil. For rapeseed oil, Canada's new - season output is optimistic, but the supply may still be tight due to the uncertainty of China - Canada relations and limited substitution from Australian rapeseed [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Short - term wide - range oscillation. The price ranges are P2601 [9000 - 9900], Y2601 [8000 - 8700], and OI [9600 - 10500]. Consider the opportunity of rebound after over - decline. Technically, consider going long on P2601 at low levels [13]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategies**: For basis strategies, use accumulated option purchases to reduce basis risk. For calendar spread strategies, consider positive spread trading for P1 - 5 at low levels (190, 200). For hedging arbitrage strategies, expect the rapeseed - soybean spread to widen and the soybean - palm spread to narrow [13]. 3.1.3 Industry Client Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price ranges for soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil are 8000 - 8400, 9700 - 10300, and 8900 - 9500 respectively [15]. - **Hedging Strategies**: Traders with high inventory can short Y2601 to lock in profits. Refineries with low inventory can buy Y2601 to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about over - inventory can short Y2601 [15]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides the latest prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot markets, as well as spreads between different contracts and varieties [18][19][20][21]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 30 increased by 7.3% month - on - month. The operating rate of domestic rapeseed oil mills decreased for the second consecutive week. The operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills decreased during the holiday [22][23]. - **Negative Information**: On September 26, the commercial inventory of three major edible oils in China was 240 million tons, still at a high level in recent years. As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting progress reached 3.2% [24]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Palm oil transactions improved slightly, soybean oil transactions decreased, and rapeseed oil had almost no transactions [25]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - September 29 domestic weekly inventory data, high - frequency production and export data of Malaysian palm oil, and progress on the US small - refinery exemption re - allocation decision [30]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: This week, the edible oil market oscillated and sorted. Rapeseed oil was relatively strong, while soybean oil and palm oil oscillated. Some speculative funds left the market cautiously. The market is in a multi - empty situation, and the downward space is limited, expected to trade in a range. Pay attention to the rebound opportunity of palm oil after over - decline [31]. - **Capital Trends**: Key profitable positions in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are cautious. Palm oil prices are at a medium - low level historically, with decreasing positions and a weak short - term trend. Soybean oil prices are declining with decreasing positions and increasing negative trend. Rapeseed oil prices are rising, with significant position fluctuations and cautious market sentiment [31]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The near - month term structure of edible oils is steeper. The OI1 - 5 positive spread continues to strengthen due to the expected tight supply of rapeseed oil at the end of this year and in the first quarter of next year. P1 - 5 and Y1 - 5 positive spreads are mainly consolidating [33]. - **Basis Structure**: This week, the basis of major edible oil contracts was weak. High domestic inventory and weak demand led to a continued weak basis [51]. - **Spread Structure**: This week, the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads strengthened. Rapeseed oil supply in the fourth quarter is not optimistic, while the supply pressure of soybean oil and palm oil has eased [55]. - **Foreign Market**: The domestic market followed the foreign market to oscillate and then weaken. Uncertainties in China - US and China - Canada relations and the closure of Argentine exports limited further downward movement. CBOT soybean oil managed funds reduced their net positions, while producers/ traders/ processors/ users increased their positions slightly [57]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The POGO spread is slightly lower but still at a high level, and the BOHO spread is at a low level. The overall cost of bio - fuel production remains high due to the low - price competition of Argentine soybean oil [65]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. The import cost has slightly decreased, and the import profit inversion has narrowed slightly. However, due to weak domestic demand and inventory pressure, the probability of a significant increase in purchasing is low [68]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to decline in the fourth quarter due to drought in the first quarter and floods in September. The inventory pressure will be further relieved, and the inventory - to - sales ratio is expected to decline [70]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm Oil**: The procurement intention of traders is low. The monthly purchase volume in September and October is about 200,000 tons. The supply pressure in the fourth quarter is not large, and inventory is expected to decline further. - **Soybean Oil**: The arrival of soybeans in September and October is high, and the supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient. However, the soybean crushing volume may decrease in December, and the supply of soybean oil may be tight if US soybean purchases are difficult [72][73]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic inventory is high, and demand is weak. High inventory will be gradually reduced in the fourth quarter. If China - Canada relations do not improve, supply may be tight from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year [73]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - In the short term, the inventory pressure of three major edible oils is large, and demand is weak. The Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays may boost catering consumption, but overall terminal demand is still weak compared to last year [75].