Group 1: Macro and Index Futures - The stock index futures market has shown certain volatility recently, with the main contracts rising to varying degrees. The trading volume and open interest have increased, indicating rising attention to small and medium - cap index products. However, the basis is generally at a discount, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. It is advisable to hold a light position and make low - level layouts [2]. Group 2: Crude Oil - The escalation of the Middle East situation has led to concerns about oil supply disruptions and driven up oil prices. Fundamentally, the approaching summer peak season and declining US inventories support price increases, but in the medium - term, the reaction of the Middle East situation and the outcome of the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation are crucial. OPEC+ plans to increase production in July. WTI should pay attention to the pressure around $78 per barrel, and in the long - term, the upside of oil prices is limited without major geopolitical impacts on supply [3]. Group 3: Gold - The Middle East conflict has broken the consolidation of international gold prices. On June 13, spot gold prices soared by 1.7% intraday, approaching the April high. Investors should pay attention to geopolitical situations, the Fed's FOMC meeting in July, and the US - EU tariff negotiation deadline. Gold prices may face technical corrections [4][5]. Group 4: Silver - Affected by the Middle East situation, silver prices rose but were restricted by industrial attributes. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver futures warehouse receipts decreased, and trade policy uncertainties suppressed industrial demand. Sprott's silver trust received a net inflow of $500 million. Silver prices are supported by geopolitical risks but may face technical overbought corrections. Attention should be paid to Iran's retaliatory actions, the Fed's FOMC meeting, and the US - EU tariff negotiation [6]. Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The price of PTA is supported by the rising cost of crude oil due to the Middle East situation, but the upside is limited. In June, PTA device maintenance and restart were concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 83.25%. The polyester and textile industries are in the off - season, and the market lacks positive stimuli. PTA supply and demand are in a tight balance, and it may fluctuate with the cost side in the short term [7]. Ethylene Glycol - The supply of ethylene glycol has increased slightly, with an overall operating load of 55.07%. The inventory in East China's main ports has decreased. The demand side is weak, and it may fluctuate with the cost side in the short term [8]. PVC - The supply of PVC has decreased slightly, and the demand from downstream enterprises has not improved significantly. The social inventory has decreased. The futures price is affected by market sentiment and may oscillate at a low level due to weak fundamentals [9][10]. PP - The supply of PP has increased, with the average capacity utilization rate rising to 78.64%. The demand from downstream industries has decreased slightly, and the inventory has decreased. The futures price may oscillate at a low level due to weak demand [11][12]. Plastic - The supply of plastic has increased, with the production enterprise capacity utilization rate rising to 79.17%. The demand from downstream industries has decreased, and the inventory has decreased. The futures price may oscillate in the short term due to weak fundamentals [13]. Soda Ash - The supply of soda ash has increased, with the overall operating rate rising to 84.9%. The factory inventory has increased, and the social inventory has decreased. The demand is average, and the futures price may continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [14]. Glass - The supply of glass has remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease in weekly output. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the pressure during the rainy season cannot be ignored. The demand is weak, and the futures price may oscillate weakly in the short term [15][16]. Rubber - The price of rubber is affected by the repeated trade war situation and the oversupply fundamentals. The domestic and Southeast Asian production areas are in the harvest season, and the supply is abundant. The downstream tire operating rate has decreased. Rubber may show a pattern of slow rise and sharp fall under weak fundamentals [17]. Methanol - The spot price of methanol has decreased, while the futures price has increased. The port inventory has increased, and the supply pressure is high. The demand from the MTO device has recovered, but the traditional downstream demand is in the off - season. The futures price may oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation speed and the impact of the Middle East situation on oil prices [18]. Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA's June report has limited positive support. Domestically, the corn market is in the transition period between old and new grains, with a potential shortage of supply. Wheat may replace corn in the feed field, and weather may affect prices. The downstream demand is weak. Corn may oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan per ton in the short term [19]. Peanut - In the long - term, the domestic peanut planting area is expected to increase in 2025. Currently, the market is in the inventory consumption period, with low inventory levels. The demand is in the off - season, and the price may be pushed up by restocking demand. The short - term price may weaken, and attention should be paid to the support at 8200 yuan per ton [20]. Cotton - The US cotton planting and budding rates are slightly slower than in previous years. In the long - term, the cotton supply is expected to be abundant, and the price may remain low. Currently, the import is low, and the commercial inventory is lower than usual, providing support. The downstream textile market is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. Cotton may oscillate strongly in the short term [21]. Pig - The government's reserve release has sent a positive signal, but the market supply is sufficient, and the consumer demand is weak. The futures contract 2509 should pay attention to whether it can break through the upper pressure level of 14000, and the pig slaughter situation needs continuous attention [22]. Egg - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to high laying - hen inventory. The demand is weak due to difficult storage in hot and humid weather. The current futures price is undervalued, and it is recommended to wait and see [23]. Soybean No. 2 - The market has digested the positive impact of the China - US trade talks. The USDA's June report is neutral. The US soybean planting is progressing smoothly, and the Brazilian soybean is in the peak export season. It may oscillate in the short term [24][25]. Soybean Meal - The global geopolitical situation is unstable. The market has digested the China - US trade talks. The US soybean planting is good, and the Brazilian soybean is in the export peak. Domestically, the supply pressure of soybean meal is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. It may oscillate in the short term [26]. Soybean Oil - The international oil price increase has driven up the domestic soybean oil market. The US soybean planting is progressing well, and the Brazilian soybean is in the export peak. Domestically, the oil - mill operating rate is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory pressure is increasing. It may oscillate strongly in the short term [27]. Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The complexity of the 2025 interest - rate cut path, global tariff conflicts, and the Middle East risk may affect market sentiment. Domestically, policy support is strong. The copper market is in a stage of resonance, and it is advisable to hold for now, with the defense line moved to the lower neckline of the island pattern [28]. Shanghai Aluminum - The macro - sentiment is boosted by the China - US economic and trade consultation and the US interest - rate cut expectation. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, and the demand is in the off - season. The price may oscillate within a range [29][30]. Alumina - The supply of alumina is sufficient, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory has increased slightly. The price is under pressure, and the futures contract 2509 may show a weak adjustment trend [31]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is supported by the tight scrap - aluminum market, but the supply is excessive. The demand from the new - energy vehicle industry may slow down in the second half of the year. The inventory is relatively high, and the futures contract 2511 may operate weakly [32]. Lithium Carbonate - The raw - material prices in the lithium industry chain have stabilized, and the supply is stable with a structural adjustment. The demand is weak. The market may continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and it is recommended that conservative investors wait and see, while aggressive investors can conduct range operations [33]. Industrial Silicon - The supply of industrial silicon has increased slightly, and the demand is weak. The inventory digestion is slow, and the price is under pressure. Aggressive investors can short at high prices [34]. Polysilicon - The supply of polysilicon is stable, and the demand is weak overall. The export volume has decreased. The market supply - demand contradiction is still prominent, and the futures contract 2507 may oscillate, with attention paid to the previous low - point support [35]. Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - The technical trend of stainless steel may shift from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation. The cost support is weak, the supply pressure remains, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [36]. Rebar - The rebar futures may shift from a resistive decline to an oscillation under a high basis. The cost is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to take a light - position, low - level, long - biased approach in the short term [37]. Hot - Rolled Coil - The technical trend of hot - rolled coil is stabilizing. The cost is stable, the apparent demand has recovered, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to take a light - position, low - level, long - biased approach in the short term [38]. Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore has increased, and the demand has decreased slightly. The port inventory is still at a relatively high level, and the inventory pressure is emerging. The market sentiment is boosted by the easing of China - US tariffs, but the export sustainability is uncertain. The futures contract 2509 may oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the inventory digestion speed and the steel - mill restart rhythm [39][40]. Coal Mine - The supply of coking coal is expected to contract due to production accidents and new regulations. The demand for coking coal and coke is weak. The futures contracts of coking coal and coke may oscillate recently, and attention should be paid to the steel - mill inventory digestion and policy implementation [41].

伦敦金属交易所（LME）数据显示， 铜库存114475吨，减少2375吨。 铝库存353225吨，减少2375吨。 镍库存197538吨，减少96吨。锌库存131000吨，减少1025吨。铅库存264975吨，减少3775吨。锡库存 2260吨，减少105吨。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年6月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘继续回落，20均线开始承压。产业链上，镍矿现货成交平静，菲律宾出船有所恢复， 矿山继续挺价。镍铁价格弱稳，成本线小幅下移。不锈钢仓单继续流出，现货供应压力仍大。新能源汽 车产销数据较好，电池向（6镍）倾向，有利于镍的需求提升。中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货122700，基差910，偏多 3、库存：LME库存197508，-618，上交所仓单21113，+72，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2507：震荡偏弱运行，重心慢慢下移，短期关注下方成本支撑。 多空因素 影响因素总结 利多： 1、新能源汽车 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance Overnight - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures flat at $3,346.70 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.12% at $36.91 per ounce [2] - International oil prices strengthened, with the U.S. oil main contract up 1.24% at $65.38 per barrel and the Brent crude main contract up 0.96% at $67.11 per barrel [3] - London base metals closed mixed, with LME copper up 1.03% at $9,769.02 per ton and LME nickel down 0.76% at $15,325.9 per ton [4] - Domestic futures main contracts were mixed. Styrene (EB) rose more than 1%, while coking coal fell more than 2% [4] - U.S. agricultural product futures fell across the board, with CBOT corn futures down 2.15%, CBOT wheat futures down 2.25%, and CBOT soybean futures down 0.12% [4] 2. Macroeconomic News - As of June 9, 2025, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) was 1,622.81 points, up 29.5% from the previous period [7] - Citigroup postponed its forecast for the Fed's next rate cut from July to September and now expects a total of 75 basis points of cuts this year [7] - In the first five months, China's imports of iron ore decreased by 5.2%, crude oil increased by 0.3%, coal decreased by 7.9%, natural gas decreased by 9.5%, soybeans decreased by 0.7%, and refined oil decreased by 26.8% [7] - In May 2025, China's CPI was down 0.1% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month [8] - On June 9, the first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London [9] - California Governor Gavin Newsom said he would sue the Trump administration over the National Guard deployment issue [9] 3. Energy and Chemical Futures - The local quotation of photovoltaic glass in the market has fallen below 12 yuan per square meter, with the lowest transaction price approaching 11.5 yuan per square meter [13] - As of June 6, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 3.39 million cubic meters, down 0.59% from the previous week [13] - As of June 8, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 605,500 tons, down 0.67% from the previous period [13] - Morgan Stanley said OPEC+ may be significantly increasing oil production quotas, but the actual output increase is not obvious [13] - The U.S. Bank's commodities research head said OPEC+'s oil production increase plan is part of Saudi Arabia's strategy to start a long - term but moderate price war [13] - Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman said the U.S. plan on the Iran nuclear deal is unacceptable [14] 4. Metal Futures - The listing benchmark prices for casting aluminum alloy futures contracts AD2511 - AD2605 are set at 18,365 yuan per ton [18] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange warned of high market volatility and advised members and investors to take risk - prevention measures [18] - China's lithium hydroxide production in June 2025 is expected to be 20,200 tons, down 5.8% month - on - month [19] 5. Black - series Futures - Mysteel's global iron ore shipments totaled 3.5104 million tons, up 79,400 tons week - on - week [21] - China's 47 - port iron ore arrivals totaled 2.6739 million tons, up 76,500 tons week - on - week [21] - As of the week of June 6, the total manganese ore inventory at ports was 420,200 tons, up 13,200 tons from the previous period [21] 6. Agricultural Product Futures - The central government will conduct a 10,000 - ton centralized procurement of frozen pork on June 11, 2025 [25] - As of June 6, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions of China was 812,700 tons, up 7.66% week - on - week [25] - Analysts expect Brazil's 2024/2025 soybean production to be 169.27 million tons and Argentina's to be 4.904 million tons [25] - With the arrival of imported soybeans, the soybean commercial inventory of major oil mills has reached nearly 7 million tons [26] - APK - Inform lowered its forecast for Ukraine's 2025 grain production by 4.3% to 52.9 million tons [27] - As of June 9, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5.9568 million tons, up 215,970 tons from June 3 [28] - As of last Thursday, Brazilian farmers in the central - southern region had harvested 1.9% of the 2025 second - season corn, the slowest pace since 2021 [28] - In the week ending June 5, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 547,040 tons, and the U.S. shipped 0 tons of soybeans to China [31] - As of June 8, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, the planting rate was 90%, and the emergence rate was 75% [31] 7. Financial Markets Commodities - The first recycled metal variety, casting aluminum alloy futures and options, was listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on June 10, with the benchmark price for 7 contracts set at 18,365 yuan per ton [33] Bonds - Domestic inter - bank bond yields were mixed, and the central bank conducted 173.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection [36] - Japan is considering repurchasing some long - term bonds, and Japanese investors sold a large amount of German and U.S. sovereign bonds in April [36] - U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board due to concerns about bond auctions, supply - demand adjustments, and investor sentiment [37] - European bond yields generally declined due to weak economic fundamentals in the eurozone [37] Foreign Exchange - Hong Kong will maintain the linked exchange rate system and strengthen its role as an offshore RMB business center [38] - The on - shore RMB closed at 7.1838 against the U.S. dollar on Monday, up 9 basis points from the previous trading day [38] - The three major RMB exchange rate indices fell last week, hitting new lows [41] - The U.S. dollar index fell 0.19% at the New York close, and non - U.S. currencies generally rose [41] 8. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Key economic data to be released include South Korea's April current account, the U.K.'s May unemployment rate, etc. [44] - Key events include China's central bank's reverse repurchase maturity, EIA's monthly short - term energy outlook report, and various conferences and corporate events [46]

期货市场上看，6月6日收盘，硅铁期货主力合约报5104.00元/吨，涨幅0.08%，最高触及5188.00元/吨， 最低下探5098.00元/吨，日内成交量达163627手。 【市场资讯】 6月6日，郑商所硅铁期货仓单录得15576张，较上一交易日减少260张；最近一周，硅铁期货仓单累计减 少1177张，减少幅度为7.03%；最近一个月，硅铁期货仓单累计减少2305张，减少幅度为12.89%。 昨日，各主产区72号硅铁现货汇总价格约5130-5200元/吨，较前一日基本持平。 （6月6日）全国硅铁价格一览表 | 规格 | 品牌/产 | | 报价类 | 交货 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地 | 报价 | 型 | 地 | | | 牌号:FeSi75～B;粒度等级/mm:自然 | 新华实业 | 5100元/ | 出厂价 | 宁夏 | 宁夏新华实业集团有限公司 | | 块 | | 吨 | | | | | 牌号:FeSi75～B;粒度等级/mm:自然 | 中卫银河 | 5100元/ | 出厂价 | 宁夏 | 宁夏中卫县银河冶炼有限公 | | 块 | ...

Summary of LME Non-Ferrous Metal Inventory Report Core Insights - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a decrease in non-ferrous metal inventories across various metals, indicating potential supply tightening in the market [1] Inventory Changes - Copper inventory stands at 132,400 tons, down by 5,600 tons [1] - Aluminum inventory is at 363,850 tons, reduced by 2,000 tons [1] - Nickel inventory is recorded at 200,106 tons, decreasing by 618 tons [1] - Zinc inventory totals 136,975 tons, with a decline of 175 tons [1] - Lead inventory is at 281,275 tons, down by 1,375 tons [1] - Tin inventory is reported at 2,440 tons, decreasing by 5 tons [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock market risk appetite has gradually recovered, and it is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy on dips, or go long on IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" opportunistically [3]. - The short - term bond market will fluctuate, and in the context of weak domestic demand recovery and expected continued loose funds, the interest rate is expected to decline in the long - term, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [6]. - Silver has upward momentum under the Fed's loose monetary policy, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on silver on dips [8]. - The prices of most non - ferrous metals face different degrees of upward resistance or downward pressure, and corresponding trading strategies are given according to different metal varieties [10][11][12]. - The steel market is in the traditional off - season, and the terminal demand is weakening. The tariff policy is changeable, and the medium - and long - term demand still faces great pressure [22]. - The prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron are in a downward trend, and it is not recommended to bottom - fish prematurely due to "low valuation" [26][27]. - The prices of industrial silicon may continue to decline due to over - supply and insufficient demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [32]. - For rubber, a short - long trading strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [37]. - For crude oil, short - term observation is recommended [38]. - For methanol, it is recommended to go short on rallies; for urea, it is recommended to wait and see; for PVC, the medium - term fundamentals are still weak; for ethylene glycol, there is a risk of valuation correction; for PTA, it will continue to destock and oscillate at the current valuation level; for p - xylene, it will oscillate at the current valuation level; for polyethylene, the price will oscillate; for polypropylene, the price is expected to be bearish in June [39][40][41]. - For livestock and poultry products, for live pigs, it is recommended to sell on rallies; for eggs, it is recommended to sell on rallies for near - month contracts and wait for the accumulation of contradictions for far - month contracts [51][52]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, it is recommended to pay attention to the external market's weather stimulus at the lower end of the cost range of the 09 contract [54]. - For oils and fats, it is expected to oscillate [56]. - For sugar, the price may weaken in the future; for cotton, it is expected to continue the oscillating trend in the short term [58][59]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.42%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.11%, and other major indexes also showed varying degrees of increase. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1.153 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.6 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - **Macro News**: There are expectations of RRR cuts and restarting bond purchases, and there are calls for the Fed to cut interest rates in the US. The US ADP employment data in May was far lower than expected [2]. - **Funding Situation**: The margin trading balance increased by 3.469 billion yuan, and the overnight Shibor rate decreased by 0.20bp. The credit spread and Sino - US interest rate spread both decreased [2]. - **Valuation Indicators**: The price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, and dividend yields of major indexes are provided, as well as the basis ratios of stock index futures [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures on dips, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [3][4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Quotes**: The main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose on Wednesday [5]. - **News**: South Korea plans to formulate a second supplementary budget, and the Bank of Japan may continue to raise interest rates if inflation meets expectations [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 214.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 600 million yuan [6]. - **Strategy**: The short - term bond market will fluctuate, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips in the long - term [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai gold rose 0.45%, and Shanghai silver and COMEX gold and silver also showed different degrees of increase [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The Fed is approaching the time to signal further interest rate cuts. The US economic data has weakened comprehensively, and the silver - gold ratio has declined. Silver has upward momentum [7][8]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on silver on dips, with reference price ranges provided for Shanghai gold and silver [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Quotes**: LME copper rose 0.11%, and SHFE copper also showed a slight increase. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic warehouse receipt increased slightly [10]. - **Price Outlook**: The copper price faces upward resistance due to factors such as marginal improvement in supply tension and weakening consumption resilience [10]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: LME aluminum rose 0.67%, and SHFE aluminum also increased. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods showed different trends [11]. - **Price Outlook**: The short - term aluminum price may oscillate weakly due to factors such as tariff policies and inventory changes [11]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: The Shanghai zinc index rose 1.21%. The zinc concentrate processing fee increased, and the refined zinc output is expected to increase [12]. - **Price Outlook**: The zinc price still has a large downward risk due to over - supply and weak terminal consumption [12]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: The Shanghai lead index rose 0.59%. The downstream demand for lead is weak, and the supply of primary lead is increasing while the supply of recycled lead is decreasing [13]. - **Price Outlook**: If the price of recycled lead raw materials drops further, it may deepen the downward space of the lead price [13]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: The nickel price oscillated. The production of refined nickel is at a historical high, and the demand from the stainless - steel market is weak [14]. - **Price Outlook**: The short - term fundamentals of nickel have slightly improved, but it is still bearish in the long - term, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [14]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: The tin price rebounded significantly due to concerns about supply. The downstream demand has not increased significantly [15]. - **Price Outlook**: The rebound space of the tin price is limited, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [15]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Quotes**: The spot index of carbonate lithium was flat, and the futures price rose. The main contract reduced its position, and the short - term fundamentals have not changed substantially [16][17]. - **Price Outlook**: The lithium price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to the market atmosphere, position changes, and supply disturbances [17]. Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The alumina index rose 2.11%. The spot price remained unchanged, and the futures inventory decreased [18]. - **Price Outlook**: The alumina price is expected to be anchored by cost, and it is recommended to go short on rallies lightly [18]. Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The stainless - steel futures price rose, and the spot price remained stable. The raw material prices showed different trends, and the inventory decreased [19]. - **Price Outlook**: The stainless - steel market is in a situation of oversupply, and the traders have difficulty in supporting the price [19]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Quotes**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose, and the spot prices also increased. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the supply decreased; the supply and demand of hot - rolled coil both increased, and the inventory continued to decrease [21][22]. - **Price Outlook**: The steel market is in the off - season, and the terminal demand is weakening. The tariff policy is changeable, and the medium - and long - term demand still faces great pressure [22]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The iron - ore futures price rose. The iron - ore shipment increased, the iron - water output decreased, and the port inventory continued to decrease [23]. - **Price Outlook**: The iron - ore price may oscillate as the iron - water output declines and the downstream demand weakens [23]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price of glass in Shahe remained unchanged, and the production enterprise's inventory decreased slightly. The short - term spot sales were good, but the medium - term futures price is expected to be weak [24]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price of soda ash was slightly adjusted. The supply decreased due to summer maintenance, and the inventory increased. The demand is expected to decline, and the medium - term fundamentals are still weak [25]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Market Quotes**: The prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron futures rose slightly, but they are still in a downward trend [26][27]. - **Price Outlook**: The prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron are affected by factors such as over - supply, weak demand, and cost reduction, and it is not recommended to bottom - fish prematurely [26][27]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The industrial - silicon futures price rose, but it is still in a downward trend. The supply is over - abundant, and the demand is insufficient [32][33]. - **Price Outlook**: The price of industrial silicon may continue to decline, and it is recommended to wait and see [32]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Quotes**: The prices of NR and RU were boosted by the rebound of coking coal and coke. The operating rates of tire enterprises showed different trends, and the social inventory of natural rubber decreased [36]. - **Price Outlook**: A short - long trading strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [37]. Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures fell, while the INE crude oil futures price rose. The US EIA data showed different trends in inventory changes [38]. - **Price Outlook**: Short - term observation is recommended [38]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The methanol futures price rose, and the spot price also increased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [39]. - **Price Outlook**: It is recommended to go short on rallies, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on the PP - 3MA spread of the 09 contract [39]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The urea futures price rose, and the spot price remained unchanged. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is mediocre [40]. - **Price Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see [40]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC futures price rose, and the spot price increased slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [41]. - **Price Outlook**: The medium - term fundamentals are still weak, and the main logic is inventory reduction weakening [41]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The ethylene - glycol futures price fell, and the spot price also decreased. The supply load increased slightly, and the downstream load decreased. The port inventory decreased [42]. - **Price Outlook**: There is a risk of valuation correction [42]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA futures price rose, and the spot price decreased. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is stable. The inventory decreased [44]. - **Price Outlook**: PTA will continue to destock and oscillate at the current valuation level [44]. p - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The p - xylene futures price rose, and the spot price also increased. The supply load increased, and the demand decreased slightly. The inventory decreased [45]. - **Price Outlook**: It will oscillate at the current valuation level, and the destocking will slow down in June and accelerate in the third quarter [45]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The polyethylene futures price rose, and the spot price remained unchanged. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season [46]. - **Price Outlook**: The price will oscillate [46]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The polypropylene futures price rose, and the spot price remained unchanged. The supply will increase significantly in June, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally [47][48]. - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to be bearish in June [47]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Quotes**: The domestic pig price generally fell, the supply was sufficient, and the demand was weak [51]. - **Price Outlook**: The pig price may continue to decline, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [51]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: The national egg price was generally stable, the supply was stable, and the demand was weak [52]. - **Price Outlook**: The spot price is under downward pressure. It is recommended to sell on rallies for near - month contracts and wait for the accumulation of contradictions for far - month contracts [52]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Quotes**: The US soybean price rose slightly, and the domestic soybean - meal spot price fell. The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the inventory is expected to increase [53]. - **Price Outlook**: The price of soybean meal is affected by both external cost support and domestic supply pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the external market's weather stimulus at the lower end of the cost range of the 09 contract [54]. Oils and Fats - **Market Quotes**: The palm - oil production in Malaysia increased in May, and the export also increased. The prices of domestic oils and fats showed different trends, and the spot basis oscillated slightly [55]. - **Price Outlook**: The oils and fats are expected to oscillate due to factors such as production recovery, policy uncertainty, and inventory levels [56]. Sugar - **Market Quotes**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded slightly, and the spot price fell slightly. The sales volume and inventory in Guangxi and Yunnan showed different trends [57]. - **Price Outlook**: The sugar price may weaken in the future due to factors such as international supply and domestic import [58]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated weakly, and the spot price fell slightly. The US cotton planting and budding rates showed different trends [59]. - **Price Outlook**: The cotton price is expected to continue the oscillating trend in the short term due to factors such as supply - demand fundamentals and market sentiment [59].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that President Trump's decision to double tariffs on aluminum and steel to 50% has led to a significant increase in U.S. aluminum and steel futures prices, with aluminum prices reaching their highest level since 2013 [1][3] - Following the announcement, U.S. steel and aluminum producers' stock prices surged in after-hours trading, indicating a positive market reaction to the tariff increase [3] - The increase in tariffs is expected to raise costs for key construction materials, with construction companies warning that the higher tariffs will impact their expenses [3] Group 2 - Comex aluminum futures prices rose by 54%, while steel futures increased by over 8% after the tariff announcement, although some gains were later reversed [1][3] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley noted that over 80% of U.S. aluminum is imported, while less than 20% of steel comes from overseas, highlighting the reliance on imports [3] - Citigroup analysts predict that prices will continue to rise due to insufficient domestic capacity, particularly for aluminum, suggesting that the tariffs primarily impose a tax on consumers [3][4] Group 3 - The potential for increased tariffs on copper is being factored into market expectations, with analysts observing that U.S. buyers are preemptively importing materials ahead of any potential tariff implementation [4] - The premium for aluminum on the New York Commodity Exchange is likely to attract more raw materials to the U.S., reducing inventories outside the country and maintaining tightness in global markets [4]

贵金属： 金银价格步入整理。特朗普将把欧盟面临 50%关税的最后期限延长至7月9日，令担忧情绪降 温，上周五特朗普一度威胁对欧盟关税提高到50%，一度刺激黄金走高。上周美国众议院以微弱优势通 过税改法案，未来十年将增加联邦债务约3.8万亿美元，对美国债务问题的担忧发酵。5月开始公布的经 济数据将逐渐反馈关税冲击带来的影响，预计数据将呈现更将明显的滞胀态势，短期经济数据的表现影 响有限。美联储难有快速动作，但随着政策框架的修改，或为未来宽松进行铺垫。考虑市场正处于期待 关税冲突降温的阶段，而美联储短期内难有快速降息，黄金白银步入持续整理阶段。但黄金长期驱动仍 然明确提供支撑，短期内有关关税谈判扰动，美国债务问题发酵或是美联储重新QE等动作，都会提供 反弹动力，整体上呈现偏强震荡态势。 铜 ： 夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。根据国家统计局数据来 看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力投资高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新 能源渗透率提升有望巩固汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税谈判 进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 首席点评 ...