Core Insights - The Atlantic Council report highlights the "gallium shortage" faced by the U.S. following China's export controls on gallium and related materials, emphasizing the need for the U.S. to explore "waste-to-gallium" recovery methods [2][3][4] Global Gallium Supply Dependence - China is the largest holder of gallium reserves, with approximately 190,000 tons, accounting for about 68% of global reserves, while the U.S. holds only 4,500 tons [3] - China's production of gallium exceeds 90% of global output, significantly impacting the global tech industry due to recent export controls [4] Strategic Importance and Supply Challenges - Gallium is critical for advanced electronic systems, including military applications, yet the U.S. lacks domestic production and government stockpiles to mitigate the impact of China's export restrictions [4][5] - The U.S. consumes about 20 tons of gallium annually for defense, but its reliance on imports has created vulnerabilities in its supply chain [5][6] Waste-to-Gallium Recovery Solutions - The report suggests that the U.S. should focus on recovering gallium from existing industrial processes rather than seeking new mining opportunities [7] - Potential recovery methods include extracting gallium from aluminum refining, zinc smelting, and semiconductor waste, which could help diversify and stabilize the supply chain [8][10] Recommendations for Increasing Domestic Gallium Supply - The U.S. can enhance gallium supply through various strategies, such as improving recovery processes at aluminum and zinc plants, and collaborating with allies for gallium recycling [9][10] - Establishing more facilities for recycling semiconductor waste could provide high-purity gallium, essential for defense applications [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overnight night - market showed mixed trends in various commodity futures and financial markets. Positive factors in supply and demand drove up oil prices, while the LME zinc market faced a severe squeeze. In the financial market, A - shares and some international stock markets had positive performances, and different industries had their own development trends and news [4][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - **Energy Futures**: The US crude oil main contract rose 0.98% to $57.58 per barrel, and Brent crude oil main contract rose 1.07% to $61.66 per barrel. The decrease in API crude oil inventory and the US energy department's procurement tender for strategic reserves were positive factors [4]. - **London Base Metals**: Most London base metals rose, with LME zinc up 0.50% at $2993.50 per ton, LME tin up 0.48% at $35475.00 per ton, etc. However, LME nickel and copper declined [4]. - **Domestic Futures**: Domestic futures main contracts were mixed. SC crude oil, etc. rose slightly, while precious metals like gold and silver, and some agricultural products futures declined [6]. Important News Macroeconomic News - There was speculation about Trump's possible visit to China next year, but the Chinese foreign ministry had no information to provide. Economists expected the Fed to cut interest rates in the coming weeks and December, with disagreements on the end - of - next - year rate. A possible trade agreement between Canada and the US might be signed during the APEC summit, and Trump mentioned military actions against Hamas [8]. Energy Futures News - The 2026 fertilizer import tariff quota was set at 13.65 million tons, with 3.3 million tons for urea. The natural gas market had a stable supply and slowing consumption growth. Goldman Sachs predicted a decline in Brent crude oil prices next year [11][12]. Metal Futures News - In September 2025, China's primary aluminum production was 3.6804 million tons, with a 2.67% year - on - year increase. The LME zinc market faced a severe supply squeeze, with a high spot premium [14]. Black - Series Futures News - South Africa's UMK raised the price of manganese ore for China in November. The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 Chinese ports increased, while the inventory in Australian and Brazilian ports decreased. BHP's iron ore production declined in Q3 2025, and Rio Tinto planned to ship high - grade iron ore from Guinea [17][18]. Agricultural Futures News - As of October 17, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit decreased. The national soybean oil port inventory decreased. Malaysian palm oil production and exports increased in October 1 - 20, and the price was expected to remain above a certain level. Indonesia aimed to increase sugar production in 2026, and Brazil was expected to increase exports of soybeans, etc. [20][23][27]. Financial Markets Financial - A - shares rose significantly, with technology and some concept sectors leading. The Hong Kong stock market also had positive performances. Many A - share companies had mid - term dividend plans. Some companies had important news, such as possible IPOs and expected revenue growth [30][34]. Industry - The state drug administration promoted the development of the medical device industry. The trust industry's asset management scale exceeded 30 trillion yuan. Some cities announced future industry plans, and a large - scale AIC mother fund was launched in Shenzhen [35][36]. Overseas - European leaders supported a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Japan had a new prime minister, and the Japanese central bank considered interest rate hikes. Argentina's loan plan faced problems, and the EU's financial situation deteriorated [38]. International Stock Markets - US, Japanese, and European stock markets had different performances. Some companies' financial reports were released, and an option exchange planned to extend trading hours [41][42]. Commodities - Oil prices rose, and most London base metals showed mixed trends. The LME zinc market was severely squeezed [45]. Bonds - The domestic bond market was strong, and the real - estate bond financing showed growth. US and Japanese bond yields had different trends [46][47]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore and offshore RMB had different trends against the US dollar, and the US dollar index rose. The Japanese new finance minister hoped for stable exchange rates [48][49]. Upcoming Events - There were various economic data releases and important events such as press conferences, product launches, and interest - rate decisions in different regions [52][54].

Core Insights - The zinc market on the London Metal Exchange (LME) is experiencing one of the most severe squeezes in decades, with traders scrambling to purchase increasingly scarce zinc inventories to fulfill contracts on the exchange [1] - The current spot zinc price has a premium of $323 per ton over the three-month contract, marking the highest price differential since 1997, indicating strong spot demand exceeding supply [1] - Zinc inventories in the LME's storage network have plummeted to near historical lows, with only 24,425 tons available for buyers, which is insufficient to meet even one day's demand in a global market of 14 million tons [1] Group 1 - The pressure from buyers has been mounting as several Western smelters have cut production due to collapsing processing profits [1] - Six institutions hold long positions in LME inventories and contracts expiring in the next two days, amounting to at least 300% of the immediately available inventory [1] Group 2 - The spot premium may lead to significant losses for sellers who do not hold physical metal, with the Tom/next zinc price spread rising to $30 per ton, the highest level since the historic squeeze in 2022 [4] - The LME's backwardation has not attracted substantial inventory inflows, as noted by a senior strategist at Marex [4] - Chinese smelters continue production, creating a significant price gap between LME zinc prices and those on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), with some Chinese companies planning to export zinc to exploit the arbitrage opportunity [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing low profit margins in its smelting operations, with a reported gross profit margin of only 3.88%, primarily due to high costs and external sourcing of raw materials [1]. Group 1: Company Challenges - The company has been impacted by the continuous expansion of global metal smelting capacity and the release of domestic non-ferrous metal production, leading to low processing fees for zinc and copper concentrates [1]. - The absence of self-owned mines means the company relies entirely on external procurement for its raw materials, contributing to its low gross profit margin [1]. Group 2: Company Strategies - To address the unfavorable market conditions, the company is implementing several measures, including dynamically adjusting production structures and innovating raw material usage to reduce energy and auxiliary material costs [1]. - The company is conducting market trend research to align with demand, aiming to increase the procurement of high-value-added raw materials by deepening relationships with resource suppliers [1]. - The company is expanding its sales channels by developing new quality customers and exploring direct sales markets for zinc ingots, which helps to capitalize on price increases for gold, silver, and sulfuric acid, thereby enhancing overall profitability [1].

Core Viewpoint - The company predicts that tin prices will likely remain in a range-bound fluctuation due to mixed macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - There is an increasing expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Ongoing trade tensions between China and the U.S. contribute to cautious market sentiment [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Domestic large smelters in China are expected to resume tin ingot production in October [1] - However, raw material supply remains tight, providing support for supply [1] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Demand appears weak, with no improvement in orders noted [1] - Downstream inventory replenishment is cautious due to high tin prices, resulting in limited transactions [1]

Group 1: Inventory Changes - Copper inventory decreased by 50 tons to 137,175 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 129,350 tons and a cancellation ratio of 5.70% [1][3] - Aluminum inventory remained stable at 487,125 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 405,650 tons and a cancellation ratio of 16.73% [1][5] - Zinc inventory decreased by 700 tons to 37,325 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 24,425 tons and a cancellation ratio of 34.56% [1][9] - Tin inventory remained unchanged at 2,735 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 2,555 tons and a cancellation ratio of 6.58% [1][11] - Nickel inventory decreased by 54 tons to 250,476 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 244,356 tons and a cancellation ratio of 2.44% [1][13] Group 2: Warehouse Specific Changes - In Rotterdam, copper inventory decreased by 50 tons to 14,500 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 1.21% [3] - In Singapore, zinc inventory decreased by 700 tons to 35,875 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 35.89% [9] - In Hamburg, aluminum inventory remained stable at 3,075 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 0.00% [5] - In Kaohsiung, tin inventory remained stable at 40 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 0.00% [11]

Core Insights - The article provides an overview of the changes in warehouse inventories for various metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, and nickel, highlighting the fluctuations in registered and canceled warehouse receipts. Group 1: Copper Inventory Changes - The total copper inventory decreased to 137,225 tons, down from 137,450 tons, reflecting a change of -0.38% [1][3] - Registered warehouse receipts for copper increased by 3.64% to 7,825 tons, while the cancellation ratio rose to 5.70% [1][3] Group 2: Aluminum Inventory Changes - Aluminum inventory stands at 491,225 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons from the previous day, marking a change of -0.83% [5][7] - The cancellation ratio for aluminum is reported at 17.42%, with registered receipts totaling 85,575 tons [5][7] Group 3: Zinc Inventory Changes - Zinc inventory is recorded at 38,025 tons, showing a decrease of 275 tons, which is a change of -0.72% [9] - The cancellation ratio for zinc is 35.77%, with registered receipts at 13,600 tons [9] Group 4: Tin Inventory Changes - Tin inventory increased to 2,735 tons, up by 160 tons, reflecting a change of +7.05% [11] - The cancellation ratio for tin is 8.41%, with registered receipts at 230 tons [11] Group 5: Nickel Inventory Changes - Nickel inventory rose to 250,530 tons, an increase of 186 tons, marking a change of +0.07% [13] - The cancellation ratio for nickel is 2.46%, with registered receipts totaling 6,168 tons [13]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.65% at 45952.24 points, the S&P 500 down 0.63% at 6629.07 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.47% at 22562.54 points [1] - Most large-cap tech stocks declined, including Tesla down over 1%, Facebook down 0.76%, Apple down 0.76%, Amazon down 0.51%, and Microsoft down 0.35%. However, Nvidia rose over 1% and Google increased by 0.17% [1] - Chinese concept stocks mostly fell, with Luokung down nearly 9%, Century Internet down over 5%, New Oriental down over 5%, Pony.ai down nearly 4%, and iQIYI down over 3%. On the other hand, Daqo New Energy rose nearly 2%, Atour Hotel increased nearly 2%, Bilibili rose over 1%, and Manbang Group increased over 1% [1] European Market - European stock indices closed higher, with Germany's DAX up 0.38% at 24272.93 points, France's CAC40 up 1.38% at 8188.59 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.12% at 9436.09 points [1] Commodities - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 3.40% at $4344.3 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 3.99% at $53.43 per ounce [1] - U.S. oil futures fell, with the main contract down 1.54% at $56.95 per barrel, and Brent crude down 1.37% at $61.06 per barrel [1] Currency and Bonds - The U.S. dollar index fell 0.31% to 98.36, while the offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose by 55 basis points to 7.1246 [1] - U.S. Treasury yields collectively declined, with the 2-year yield down 8.14 basis points to 3.418%, the 3-year yield down 8.02 basis points to 3.422%, the 5-year yield down 7.63 basis points to 3.543%, the 10-year yield down 5.94 basis points to 3.973%, and the 30-year yield down 4.76 basis points to 4.581% [1] - European bond yields mostly fell, with the UK 10-year yield down 4.2 basis points to 4.499%, France's 10-year yield down 0.6 basis points to 3.333%, Germany's 10-year yield unchanged at 2.569%, Italy's 10-year yield down 2.2 basis points to 3.356%, and Spain's 10-year yield down 1.1 basis points to 3.087% [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After a previous continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence recently. The market risk appetite has decreased, and short - term indices face uncertainties due to concerns about Sino - US tariffs. However, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the mid - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - Recent Sino - US trade disputes have led to a short - term decline in risk appetite, which is beneficial for the bond market's repair. But the progress of tariffs is highly uncertain in the later stage. In the fourth quarter, the bond market needs to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The overall bond market may maintain a volatile trend, and it may oscillate and repair if the stock market cools down and the allocation power increases [8]. - Precious metals have shown strong price performance due to dovish remarks from Fed officials and a tight silver spot situation. Although prices have fallen after a short - term rapid increase, it is still recommended to hold long positions [9][10]. - For various metals and non - metals, the Sino - US trade situation is uncertain, and each product's price trend is affected by its own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. Some products are expected to have limited downside space, while others may face downward pressure [13][15][27]. - In the energy and chemical sectors, different products have different price trends and trading strategies based on their supply - demand balances, inventory levels, and cost factors. Some products are recommended for short - term observation, while others may have opportunities for long - or short - term operations [52][54][55]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different supply - demand situations. Some products are expected to have price increases, while others are expected to decline, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed accordingly [74][75][84]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: In late September, M2 balance was 335.38 trillion yuan, up 8.4% year - on - year; M1 balance was 113.15 trillion yuan, up 7.2% year - on - year; M0 balance was 13.58 trillion yuan, up 11.5% year - on - year. By the end of 2027, 28 million charging facilities will be built nationwide. US nuclear power concept stocks rose strongly, and the rumor of a large robot order for Sanhua Intelligent Control was false [2]. - **Strategy View**: After a previous continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence. The market risk appetite has decreased, and short - term indices face uncertainties due to concerns about Sino - US tariffs. However, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the mid - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts had different changes. In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. In late September, M2, M1, and M0 balances had year - on - year increases. The central bank conducted a 435 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on Wednesday, with a net investment of 435 billion yuan [5][6][7]. - **Strategy View**: Recent Sino - US trade disputes have led to a short - term decline in risk appetite, which is beneficial for the bond market's repair. But the progress of tariffs is highly uncertain in the later stage. In the fourth quarter, the bond market needs to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The overall bond market may maintain a volatile trend, and it may oscillate and repair if the stock market cools down and the allocation power increases [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.39% to 962.08 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 3.97% to 12,138 yuan/kilogram. Fed officials' dovish remarks and a tight silver spot situation led to strong precious metal prices [9]. - **Strategy View**: Although precious metal prices have fallen after a short - term rapid increase, it is still recommended to hold long positions. The reference operating range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 921 - 980 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver main contract is 11,368 - 13,000 yuan/kilogram [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Overnight, Powell mentioned the possible end of balance - sheet reduction. The copper price first rose and then fell. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic spot premiums varied. The domestic copper spot import loss narrowed, and the refined - scrap price difference decreased [12]. - **Strategy View**: Trump's threat to impose high tariffs on China is uncertain. Fundamentally, the expected tightening of copper supply in the next two years and the decrease in domestic refined copper production support the price. The short - term decline in copper prices may be limited. The reference operating range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 84,400 - 86,500 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M copper contract is 10,450 - 10,750 US dollars/ton [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price oscillated and rebounded. The LME 3M aluminum contract rose slightly, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at a certain price. Domestic and overseas inventories decreased, and the downstream consumption sentiment improved [14]. - **Strategy View**: The Sino - US trade situation is uncertain. Domestically, with the increase in the proportion of aluminum water, seasonal consumption recovery, and resilient exports, the pressure on aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is small, and the downside space for aluminum prices is expected to be limited. The reference operating range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,740 - 21,050 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M aluminum contract is 2,720 - 2,770 US dollars/ton [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index fell. LME zinc prices also decreased. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the basis and spreads had different values [16]. - **Strategy View**: During the holiday, domestic zinc smelters continued production, and some downstream enterprises had long holidays. The LME registered zinc warrants are at a low level, and there is a structural risk. After the opening of the zinc ingot export window, short - covering in the domestic market provides short - term support for Shanghai zinc. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will oscillate at a low level in the short term, with increased risk and volatility [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose. LME lead prices also increased. The domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the basis and spreads had different values [18]. - **Strategy View**: The visible lead ore inventory increased slightly, and the production of primary lead smelters remained high. The waste lead inventory decreased, and the production of secondary lead smelters increased slightly but remained at a low level. The lead ingot factory inventory increased. The downstream storage enterprises had shorter holiday times than in previous years, and the industrial data improved marginally. On October 10, a large number of LME lead warehouse warrants were cancelled, increasing the structural risk of LME lead. It is expected that Shanghai lead will run strongly in the short term [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price oscillated. The spot market trading was average, and the price of nickel ore and nickel iron remained stable. The price of MHP remained high due to increased demand [20]. - **Strategy View**: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may drive down market risk appetite, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. The recent weakening of nickel iron prices and the significant inventory pressure on refined nickel may drag down nickel prices. However, in the long term, the US easing expectations, China's anti - involution policy, and the RKAB approval are expected to support nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider going long on dips if the price drops significantly. The reference operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M nickel contract is 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract rose. The domestic futures registered warehouse warrants increased, and the price of tin concentrate decreased. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar and Indonesia was tight, and the smelter's operating rate decreased. The demand in the new energy and AI sectors was strong, but the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors were weak. The demand in the peak season improved marginally, but high prices still inhibited consumption [21]. - **Strategy View**: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may drive down market risk appetite, but the short - term supply - demand of tin is in a tight balance, and the demand in the peak season is recovering. Tin prices may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 34,000 - 36,000 US dollars/ton [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot index of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, and the futures contract price increased slightly. The spot premium was flat [22]. - **Strategy View**: The warehouse warrants of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased this week, and the inventory continued to decline. The available spot for circulation is tight, and the premium is strengthening. If consumption remains strong and resonates with the macro - environment, the upside space for lithium prices may be opened. It is more likely to oscillate strongly in the short term. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 71,880 - 75,280 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell. The domestic and overseas spot prices decreased, and the import window was close to closing. The futures inventory increased, and the ore price remained stable [24]. - **Strategy View**: The ore price is supported in the short term but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The opening of the import window may intensify the over - supply situation. However, the increased expectation of Fed rate cuts may drive the non - ferrous metal sector to run strongly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for the resonance of macro - sentiment. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract fell slightly. The spot prices in different markets had different changes, and the raw material prices remained stable. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [26]. - **Strategy View**: After the holiday, the social inventory increased significantly, but the terminal consumption was weak, and the market did not show the characteristics of the traditional peak season. The prices of Tsingshan products led the decline, and the market trading was light. It is expected that the market trend will be weak [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The AD2511 contract rose. The trading volume decreased, and the warehouse warrants decreased. The price difference between the AL2511 and AD2511 contracts increased. The domestic mainstream ADC12 price remained unchanged, and the import price increased. The domestic inventory increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy View**: The market sentiment is volatile, and the delivery pressure on the near - month contracts of cast aluminum alloy is still high, and the upside space for prices is relatively limited [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot decreased. The registered warehouse warrants and open interest increased [30]. - **Strategy View**: The overall commodity market atmosphere was weak yesterday, and steel prices continued to decline. Trump's tariff remarks disturbed the market, but the direct impact on steel is limited. Fundamentally, the demand for steel during the National Day holiday was significantly weaker than last year, and the inventory continued to accumulate. In the short term, the weak real - demand pattern of steel is difficult to reverse, and attention should be paid to the policy strength and direction around the Fourth Plenary Session [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract fell. The spot price and basis had certain values [32]. - **Strategy View**: In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume decreased seasonally, and the near - term arrival volume increased. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output remained stable, and the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline. The inventory accumulation level of steel during the holiday was high, and the post - holiday de - stocking situation is under test. Fundamentally, if the situation of finished steel weakens after the holiday, the iron ore price may adjust accordingly. The terminal demand is weak, and the macro - disturbance continues. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate weakly [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract fell. The spot prices in different regions had different changes, and the inventory increased. The open interest of long and short positions increased. The soda ash main contract fell slightly. The spot price decreased, and the inventory increased. The open interest of long and short positions also increased [34][36]. - **Strategy View**: For glass, some production lines are planned to resume production, and the cost has decreased. The terminal demand is weaker than expected, and the supply pressure is increasing. The market sentiment is cautious and bearish. For soda ash, the supply is stable, but the price has decreased. The demand is weak, and the market trading is light. It is expected to run weakly in the short term [35][36]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon main contract rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon main contract also rose. The spot prices were higher than the futures prices. The manganese silicon price is in an oscillation range and is currently close to the lower limit. The ferrosilicon price has broken through the support level and is weak [37]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by short - term demand pressure, the black sector has experienced a downward correction. The high pig iron output still exerts pressure on prices. The price may first decline to release the bearish sentiment and then rise with the expectation of the Fourth Plenary Session. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities on dips. For manganese silicon, if the black sector strengthens, pay attention to the disturbance from the manganese ore end. For ferrosilicon, it is likely to follow the black sector's trend [38][39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon futures main contract rose. The spot prices remained stable, and the basis was positive. The polysilicon futures main contract rose. The spot prices remained unchanged, and the basis was positive [42][44]. - **Strategy View**: For industrial silicon, the short - term price oscillates. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation is stable in the short term. In the future, the supply pressure will decrease, and the far - month contract valuation is expected to increase. There is still room for price repair. For polysilicon, the market may enter a fundamental correction stage. The short - term price is constrained by high inventory and weak demand. The supply - demand pattern may improve after November. The current price fluctuation is regarded as a technical correction [43][45]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price oscillated and showed signs of stabilization. The long and short sides had different views. The tire开工率 decreased during the National Day holiday, and the export of semi - steel tires slowed down. The domestic natural rubber inventory decreased. The spot prices of some rubber products increased [47][48][49][50][51]. - **Strategy View**: The macro - disturbance may temporarily decrease, and the rubber price may stabilize in the short term. It is recommended to set a stop - loss and go long on dips with a short - term and quick - in - quick - out strategy. It is also recommended to partially build a hedging position by buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [52]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures and related refined oil futures fell. The Singapore ESG oil product inventory data showed different changes in gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil inventories [53]. - **Strategy View**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, OPEC's supply has not increased significantly, so the oil price should not be overly bearish in the short term. It is recommended to maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently, it is recommended to wait and see and wait for the verification of OPEC's export price - support intention when the oil price falls [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol spot and futures prices had different changes, and the basis turned positive. The 1 - 5 spread increased [55]. - **Strategy View**: The import disturbance has weakened, and methanol is expected to return to its own fundamental pricing. The domestic supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. The inventory pressure is large, and the fundamental situation is weak. However, the downside space is relatively limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [55].

Core Viewpoint - The company has strategically invested in acquiring key mineral resources globally, focusing on nickel, lithium, and phosphorus resources [1] Nickel Resources - The company is continuously expanding its layout around high-quality laterite nickel mines in Indonesia [1] Lithium Resources - The company has established a presence in Argentina with salt lake lithium mines, expecting to control over 10 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) [1] Phosphorus Resources - The company possesses nearly 100 million tons of phosphate rock resources [1] Nickel Smelting Capacity - The company's nickel smelting capacity in Indonesia is close to 200,000 tons [1]