1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - IMF's upward revision of the global economic growth forecast provides temporary support for the non - ferrous metals sector. However, the uncertainty of US tariffs and the expectation of weakening demand still suppress prices, while policy stimulus expectations and supply disruptions support prices. Attention should be paid to structural opportunities, such as short - term long positions in aluminum and tin at low prices and short positions in zinc ingots at high prices. For the long - term, short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered for some varieties with supply surpluses or expected surpluses [1]. - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different market trends. Copper is expected to fluctuate due to the approaching expiration date of reciprocal tariffs; alumina will continue to fluctuate widely; aluminum prices will fluctuate narrowly with a continuous inventory accumulation trend; aluminum alloy will fluctuate in a weak off - season atmosphere; zinc prices will fluctuate weakly; lead prices will fluctuate with stable cost support; nickel prices will fluctuate widely; stainless steel will fluctuate; and tin prices will fluctuate with inventory accumulation [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: As the expiration date of reciprocal tariffs approaches, copper prices will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: The Chilean Finance Minister hopes that the 50% tariff on copper can be exempted. Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper, and the new tariff may be implemented at the end of July or August 1st. In June, China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. As of July 28th, copper inventory increased. On July 29th, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper had an average premium of 110 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract [8]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, investors are becoming more cautious as the tariff expiration date approaches, weakening the upward momentum of copper prices. The supply of raw materials is still tight, increasing the risk of smelter production cuts. The copper rod operating rate has declined, and inventory has increased. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and inventory is still low, but demand is weakening marginally. The implementation of US copper tariffs is not conducive to Shanghai copper prices, so copper is expected to show a fluctuating pattern [9]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: With a large - scale cancellation of warehouse receipts, alumina will continue to fluctuate widely. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the spot price of alumina increased in various regions. The supply of Guinea's bauxite may tighten during the rainy season, but the overall market surplus pattern will suppress prices. On July 29th, the alumina warehouse receipts decreased by 4823 tons to 4208 tons [9][10]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the alumina market is dominated by anti - involution sentiment and low warehouse receipts. Fundamentally, smelter production capacity is increasing, and the market is in a surplus state with rising inventory. However, the large - scale cancellation of warehouse receipts and the low level of warehouse receipt inventory may support prices. - **Outlook**: In the short term, alumina is expected to maintain high - volatility and wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to anti - involution sentiment and warehouse receipt issues [10][11]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: With the continuous inventory accumulation trend, aluminum prices will fluctuate narrowly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased by 40 yuan/ton. As of July 28th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the main consumption areas in China changed. On July 29th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 524 tons. Relevant policies for the stable growth of key industries are expected to be introduced. Hydro's Q2 production data shows a slight increase in aluminum production. The US has reached trade agreements with the EU, the Philippines, and other countries [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the approaching tariff deadline, a slight rebound in the US dollar, and the cooling of anti - involution policy expectations. The supply - side production capacity and operating rate are at a high level, while the demand - side off - season atmosphere is emerging, and the operating rate of primary processing is declining. Inventory is accumulating, and the spot basis is flat. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the consumption situation and inventory accumulation rhythm need to be observed, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. In the long term, there are concerns about consumption, and a short - selling strategy at high prices can be considered based on the premium and inventory inflection point [12]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: In a strong off - season atmosphere, the market will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the price of Baotai ADC12 remained unchanged. In June 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports decreased year - on - year. Thailand plans to implement carbon tax policies. An aluminum alloy project in Anhui started construction with a total investment of about 2 billion yuan [13]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, ADC12 is in a game between strong cost support and weak demand. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, but the previous imports have increased, and the anti - involution sentiment has cooled, resulting in a marginal decline in scrap aluminum prices. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy is low, and inventory is accumulating. The demand is in the off - season, and downstream enterprises purchase on a just - in - time basis. - **Outlook**: In the short term, ADC12 and the ADC12 - A00 spread will fluctuate at a low level, and the market will follow electrolytic aluminum. In the future, there is room for the spread to rise, and cross - variety arbitrage can be considered [13][15]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: With the cooling of anti - involution sentiment, zinc prices will fluctuate weakly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the spot price of zinc in different regions had different discounts to the main contract. As of July 29th, the inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions increased. The Xinjiang Huoshaoyun lead - zinc smelting project was put into production, with an annual zinc production capacity of 560,000 tons [15]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the anti - involution sentiment has cooled, but there are still expectations of domestic policy stimulus. The US dollar index has support, but its rebound is limited. The supply of zinc ore has become looser, and smelters' profitability is good, with strong production willingness. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and the overall demand expectation is average. - **Outlook**: In July, zinc ingot production will increase, and demand will weaken, leading to inventory accumulation. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: With stable cost support, lead prices will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead was stable. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained unchanged, and the spot premium increased by 25 yuan. As of July 28th, lead ingot inventory increased slightly. The supply of primary lead is still tight, while the production of recycled lead has recovered [16][17]. - **Main Logic**: In the spot market, the spot discount has narrowed slightly, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead is stable. The price of waste batteries is stable, and the operating rate of recycled lead smelters has increased. The production capacity of primary lead smelters has not fully recovered, and the weekly production of lead ingots has increased slightly. The demand is in the transition period from the off - season to the peak season, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories has increased [17][18]. - **Outlook**: Although the US reciprocal tariff suspension period has been postponed to August 1st, the announced tariff is high, causing macro - level fluctuations. As demand transitions from the off - season to the peak season, the battery factory operating rate has recovered. The supply of lead ingots may continue to increase slightly this week. The cost of recycled lead is supported at a high level, so lead prices are expected to fluctuate [18]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: With fluctuating market sentiment, nickel prices will fluctuate widely. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, LME nickel inventory increased, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Indonesia plans to invest in the nickel downstream industry, and some companies have adjusted their production forecasts. Vale Indonesia plans to raise funds for nickel projects. The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association proposes to revise the HPM formula, and the Indonesian government will implement a new RKAB system. The export volume of the Philippines to Indonesia is expected to increase [18][19][20]. - **Main Logic**: Currently, market sentiment dominates the market, and the static valuation of the market is stable. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. After the rainy season, the supply of raw materials may be looser. The production of intermediate products has recovered, and the price of nickel salts has declined slightly. The inventory of electrolytic nickel is accumulating, and the upward pressure is significant. - **Outlook**: In the short term, nickel prices will fluctuate widely, and in the long term, they will face downward pressure [22]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: With the cooling of sentiment, the stainless - steel market will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory remained unchanged. SMM expects the HPM of Indonesian domestic trade ore to rise slightly in the first half of August. The spot price of 304 stainless steel in Foshan had a discount to the main contract. The average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged [23][25]. - **Main Logic**: The price of nickel iron has stopped falling and rebounded, and the price of chrome iron is stable. Due to the traditional consumption off - season, the improvement in spot trading volume is limited. In June, stainless - steel production decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level, and there is a risk of weakening apparent demand. Last week, social inventory and warehouse receipts decreased, alleviating the structural surplus pressure. - **Outlook**: The overall sentiment in the commodity sector has cooled. Attention should be paid to the possibility of increased production cuts by steel mills due to long - term profit compression and policy expectations. In the short term, stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and cost - side changes [24]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: With inventory accumulation in both markets, tin prices will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 35 tons to 1855 tons, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 160 tons to 7529 tons. The trading volume decreased by 2289 lots to 52135 lots. The average spot price of 1 tin ingots decreased by 2700 yuan/ton to 266100 yuan/ton [24]. - **Main Logic**: After the mining license is issued, tin ore production is expected to gradually increase, but the tight supply situation in China will not change in the short term. The supply - demand fundamentals provide strong support for tin prices. However, the terminal demand for tin has weakened marginally in the second half of the year, limiting the upward momentum of tin prices. - **Outlook**: With the tight supply of tin ore, tin prices have bottom support and are expected to fluctuate. In August, the volatility of tin prices may increase due to possible changes in macro, capital, and supply - demand factors [26]. 3.2行情监测 The report does not provide specific content for this part.

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. plans to impose tariffs of up to 50% on copper imports, creating significant uncertainty in the market and potentially altering global metal trade dynamics, especially with Chile seeking exemptions and the emergence of a "metal alliance" between the U.S. and Europe [1]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Copper Prices - Following the announcement of the copper tariffs, copper prices surged by 13% to $5.6855 per pound, reaching a historical high not seen since 1968 [1]. - As of now, COMEX copper contracts are priced at approximately $5.63 per pound, while LME three-month copper prices are significantly lower at $4.44 per pound, indicating a widening arbitrage opportunity [2]. - If no exemptions are granted and tariffs are fully implemented, StoneX predicts that the arbitrage gap will further increase, maintaining high U.S. copper prices in the medium term [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - The U.S. relies heavily on copper imports, with a dependency rate of 44%, meaning any supply disruptions could lead to further price increases [2]. - There has been a notable increase in U.S. copper imports, which surged by 129% year-on-year in the first half of the year, leading to a significant rise in inventory levels [2]. - The global copper supply remains tight, but inventory distribution is highly uneven, which may lead to price pressures as the effects of "front-loading" imports are expected to unwind by the second half of 2025 [2]. Group 3: International Trade Relations - The European Union is also seeking exemptions from U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper, with discussions aimed at establishing a "metal alliance" that would create a protective economic framework [3]. - Under the proposed "metal alliance," EU steel and aluminum exports may receive certain duty-free quotas, while copper tariffs are still under evaluation, with expectations that they will not exceed 15% [3]. - Despite potential tariff impacts, the long-term outlook for copper remains bullish due to increasing demand driven by AI data center expansions and global electrification efforts [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with short - term prices under pressure and in a volatile state. The aluminum market is affected by macro - economic factors and fundamentals, with short - term price pressure. The zinc market has sufficient supply in the medium - to - long term and weak consumption, with prices under pressure. The lead market has cost support, and the prices have a certain bottom - line. The nickel market has limited driving forces for prices and maintains a volatile state. The stainless steel market is affected by macro - expectations and cost factors, with short - term prices returning to the volatile range. The tin market is affected by supply and demand, with short - term prices following market sentiment. The industrial silicon market is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long term, and the short - term may have a rebound. The polycrystalline silicon market may have a short - term correction and then be involved in the market with a long - position and protective put option strategy. The lithium carbonate market has high short - term speculative sentiment and high uncertainty, and investors are advised to wait for policy implementation [7][23][39][44][49][56][64][70][75][81]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,840 yuan/ton, down 0.18%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced its position by 2,049 lots to 496,800 lots. The spot premium of Shanghai copper was firm, and the spot premium in North China increased slightly [2]. - **Important Information**: The bonded - area copper inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong continued to increase. Teck Resource's copper production in Q2 2025 decreased year - on - year, and its annual production guidance was lowered. The production schedule of white - goods in August decreased compared to the same period last year [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The impact of reciprocal tariffs may be relatively mild. The domestic smelters maintain high production, and the market is mainly disturbed by the expectation of copper tariffs. The inventory has increased, and the downstream procurement has slightly increased [5][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The spot supply and demand are weak, and it is under pressure and volatile in the short term [7]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2509 contract rose 33 yuan to 3,307 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 7,296 lots to 359,400 lots. The spot prices in various regions increased [9]. - **Related Information**: Some alumina enterprises did not receive environmental - control notices. The replacement projects of large - scale alumina enterprises in Shandong were put into production, and the roasting project in Gansu was about to produce. The alumina plant in Guinea had a strike [10][11]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the reduction of positions and decline, it stabilized in the short term. The operating capacity increased, and the theoretical surplus expanded. The inventory has been increasing, and attention should be paid to the changes in warehouse receipts [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The low warehouse receipts may drive the price to rebound. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [15][16]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract fell 45 yuan/ton to 20,605 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 12,072 lots. The spot prices in various regions decreased [18]. - **Related Information**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased. Sino - US economic and trade talks were held, and the price law was being revised. Huafeng Aluminum planned to purchase aluminum products [19][20][22]. - **Trading Logic**: The LME aluminum price fluctuated and then declined. The domestic market should pay attention to policy expectations. The inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of the widening of the monthly spread [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is under pressure in the short term. Enter the long - spread position of 09 - 12 contracts after the spread converges due to inventory accumulation. Temporarily wait and see for options [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 15 yuan to 20,020 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 246 lots. The spot prices in various regions remained unchanged [26]. - **Related Information**: The production of cast aluminum alloy decreased, and the price law was being revised [26][27]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply is restricted by the shortage of scrap - aluminum sources, and the demand is affected by different orders. The futures price is mainly affected by the cost following the aluminum price [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is under pressure following the aluminum price. Consider the cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunity when the spot discount to the futures is more than 300 yuan. Temporarily wait and see for options [31][32]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2509 fell 0.35% to 22,655 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 6,419 lots. The spot trading was average, and the premium was basically stable [34]. - **Related Information**: Heavy rainfall in North China did not affect the production and transportation of galvanized plants. The zinc concentrate production of some mines increased [35][36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The zinc concentrate market is stable, and the port inventory has decreased. The domestic refined zinc production may increase. The consumption is in the off - season, and the downstream procurement is weak [37][39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Profitable short - positions can continue to be held, and attention should be paid to setting stop - profit points. Buy put options. Temporarily wait and see for options [40][41]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2509 fell 0.24% to 16,900 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 5,605 lots. The spot price was stable, and the downstream purchasing willingness improved slightly [42]. - **Related Information**: Heavy rainfall affected the raw - material transportation of recycled lead smelters [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The lead price has cost support, and the production of primary and recycled lead is affected. The terminal consumption of lead - acid batteries has improved slightly [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Profitable long - positions can continue to be held, and attention should be paid to macro - risks. Sell put options. Temporarily wait and see for options [45][47]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2509 fell 1,040 to 121,800 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 3,705 lots. The premiums of different brands of nickel changed [48]. - **Related Information**: The Fed may continue to cut interest rates. A large - scale nickel project in Southeast Sulawesi is expected to start in Q4 2025 [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The commodity atmosphere has weakened, and the nickel price has a limited decline. The supply and demand are weak in July and August, and the price lacks driving forces [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price follows the macro - atmosphere. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [50][52]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract fell 15 to 12,920 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 8,224 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were given [54]. - **Related Information**: The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project will drive the demand for stainless steel. A stainless - steel project of Guangqing Metal Technology is expected to be put into production in 2026 [55][56]. - **Logic Analysis**: The speculative atmosphere has cooled down. The external demand is restricted, and the internal demand is in the off - season. The cost has an impact on the price, and the market pays attention to macro - expectations [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price returns to the volatile range. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage [57][58]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2509 closed at 266,660 yuan/ton, down 0.76%, and the position decreased by 2,289 lots. The spot price decreased, and the trading was restricted [60]. - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held, and a national industrial - information conference was convened [61]. - **Logic Analysis**: The LME inventory increased slightly. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak in the off - season. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery signals [62][64]. - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price follows the market sentiment. Temporarily wait and see for options [65][66]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon opened high and closed at 9,350 yuan/ton. The spot prices generally weakened [67][68]. - **Related Information**: It is rumored that an anti - involution meeting will be held in August [69]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The supply has increased, and the demand of some downstream products has changed. The social inventory has decreased. The price may decline in the medium - to - long term [70]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may rebound, and it is weak in the medium - to - long term. Hold the previous protective put options. Participate in the reverse - spread of 11 and 12 contracts, the cash - and - carry arbitrage of 11 and 10 contracts, and the butterfly spread strategy [71]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polycrystalline silicon futures rose sharply and closed at 50,805 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different types of polycrystalline silicon were given [73]. - **Related Information**: The price of photovoltaic silicon wafers continued to rise [74]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The short - term "anti - involution" sentiment has declined, and the price may have a correction. The capacity integration is imperative, and the silicon - wafer price adjustment is completed [75]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may have a correction, and then participate in the market with a long - position and protective put option strategy. Hold the long - polycrystalline - silicon and short - industrial - silicon position for a long time and conduct the reverse - spread of far - month contracts of polycrystalline silicon [76]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract fell 4,440 to 70,840 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 78,853 lots. The spot prices decreased [77]. - **Important Information**: The sales of new - energy vehicles in the world increased in H1 2025, and China had a high share [78]. - **Logic Analysis**: The situation of the ore end is uncertain, and the price may test the support at 65,000 [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term speculative sentiment is strong, and the fundamentals are uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see. Enterprises with long - term contracts can consider cash - and - carry arbitrage. Temporarily wait and see for options [82][84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are likely to maintain a volatile and weak pattern. Supply-side short-term disruptions are offset by the release of new smelting capacity. The off-season effect on the demand side suppresses the spot premium. The increase in photovoltaic installations offsets part of the decline in consumption, but the impact is limited. The strengthening of the US dollar at the macro level suppresses risk appetite, while the US-EU tariff agreement eases trade frictions and limits the downside space. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the US tariff policy on August 1 and inventory changes [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contracts and Basis**: As of the week ending July 25, the price of the SHFE copper main contract dropped from 79,820 yuan/ton to 79,290 yuan/ton, a decline of about 0.66%. The LME copper price fell from $9,854.5/ton to $9,796/ton, continuing the high-level correction trend. The spot premium significantly narrowed. The premium of premium copper decreased from 180 yuan/ton to 165 yuan/ton, and the premium of flat copper decreased from 110 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton, indicating increased spot supply pressure. The LME copper 0 - 3 backwardation widened to -$53.68/ton [1]. - **Positions and Trading Volume**: The LME copper position increased to 270,400 lots, but the SHFE copper inventory increased to 128,500 tons, intensifying the long-short game. Near the end of the month in the Shanghai market, the sentiment of holders to sell for cash increased, while downstream purchases only maintained rigid demand, and market liquidity marginally weakened [2]. 3.1.2 Industry Chain Supply and Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: Short-term disturbance factors intensified. Newmont's Red Chris mine suspended operations due to an accident, and Glencore's Mount Isa mine will officially close next week, weakening the global copper mine supply elasticity. However, the commissioning of Jiangxi Copper's Zambia project supplemented the supply of the processing end. Overall, the smelting end maintained a high level, and the arrival of imported copper and domestic supply led to inventory accumulation in the Shanghai area [3]. - **Demand Side**: The off-season characteristics were obvious. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises decreased by 2.07% to 70.83% week-on-week and is expected to further drop to 70.30% next week, mainly because the rising copper price suppressed purchases, and the orders for photovoltaic and power projects seasonally declined. Although there was resilience in the photovoltaic field demand, the terminal delivery rhythm slowed down. The spot discount in North China remained at 140 yuan/ton, indicating weak regional consumption [4]. - **Inventory Side**: The contradiction in global visible inventories emerged. The LME inventory slightly decreased to 16,133 tons, but the SHFE inventory increased to 128,500 tons, and the COMEX inventory rose to 248,600 short tons. The pressure on domestic social inventories was particularly prominent [5]. 3.1.3 Market Summary - Copper prices may maintain a volatile and weak pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the US tariff policy on August 1 and inventory changes [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - From July 22 to July 28, 2025, most copper-related prices showed a downward trend, and inventory changes varied. For example, the SMM 1 copper price decreased from 79,920 yuan/ton to 79,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.46%. The LME copper price decreased from $9,855/ton to $9,763/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. The LME inventory increased by 10.53%, the SHFE inventory decreased by 0.84%, and the COMEX inventory increased by 0.88% [8]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On July 25, 2025, Jiangxi Copper's first overseas wholly-owned factory in Zambia was fully put into production, with an initial investment of $11 million, capable of producing 40,000 kilometers of wire and cable and 10,000 tons of oxygen-free copper rods per year [9]. - On July 25, 2025, the operating rate of copper cable enterprises was 70.83%, a week-on-week decrease of 2.07 percentage points, and is expected to further drop to 70.30% next week [9]. - On July 24, 2025, Newmont's Red Chris mine in Canada suspended operations due to a collapse accident, with an expected copper production of 20,000 metal tons in 2025 [9]. - On July 24, 2025, Glencore will close its Mount Isa copper mine in Australia next week, with an estimated layoff of about 500 people [10]. - On July 23, 2025, according to data from the National Energy Administration, the new photovoltaic installed capacity in June was 14.36 GW, and the cumulative installed capacity from January to June 2025 was 212.21 GW. The increase in photovoltaic installed capacity will drive up copper demand [10]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions analysis, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventories [11][13][17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly, with a decrease in trading volume and an increase in spot premium and basis. The cost - support logic for copper prices remains due to the negative TC fees of copper concentrates and tight copper ore supply. The growth rate of domestic refined copper production may slow slightly due to the decline of raw material port inventory and policy adjustments. The downstream processing enterprises are in the off - season, and they are sensitive to high - priced copper, resulting in a dull spot market. The social inventory decreased slightly and remains at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage where supply growth slows slightly, demand is temporarily weak but the outlook is gradually improving. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility decreased slightly. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis with a shrinking green column. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 78,840 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,770 dollars/ton, down 23 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was - 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 173,684 lots, down 2,408 lots. The positions of the top 20 futures traders of Shanghai copper were 6,687 lots, down 1,567 lots. The LME copper inventory was 127,400 tons, down 1,075 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 73,423 tons (weekly), down 11,133 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 18,083 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 79,025 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 79,005 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 65 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 51.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was 185 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) was - 54.34 dollars/ton, down 0.66 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 234.97 million tons (monthly), down 4.58 million tons. The TC fee of domestic copper smelters was - 42.63 dollars/thousand tons (weekly), up 0.82 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 69,320 yuan/metal ton, down 150 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan was 70,020 yuan/metal ton, down 150 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 800 yuan/ton (weekly), unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north was 750 yuan/ton (weekly), unchanged. The production of refined copper was 130.20 million tons (monthly), up 4.80 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 460,000 tons (monthly), up 30,000 tons [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons (weekly), up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 55,340 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 67,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5下游及应用 - The production of copper products was 221.45 million tons (monthly), up 11.85 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 29.11 billion yuan (monthly), up 8.7114 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 466.5756 billion yuan (monthly), up 104.2372 billion yuan. The monthly production of integrated circuits was 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 10.45%, down 0.66%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 10.09%, up 0.02%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 11.41%, down 0.0110. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options was 1.47, down 0.0907 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Trump may impose a unified tariff of 15% - 20% on imported goods from countries that have not negotiated a separate trade agreement with the US. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology deployed eight key tasks for the second half of the year, including formulating action plans to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, promoting the development and application of technologies such as AI terminals, smart wearables, and drones, and strengthening the governance of key industries such as photovoltaics. The hawkish ECB Governing Council member Kazimir said that the ECB is not in a hurry to cut borrowing costs again. The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference closed, with procurement demands of over 300 projects announced and an expected intended procurement amount of 16.2 billion yuan, and 31 projects worth over 15 billion yuan were signed. Trump opened the market of the EU, which will open its 20 - trillion - dollar market, accept US automotive and industrial standards, buy 750 billion dollars of energy products from the US, invest 600 billion dollars in the US, and the US will set a 15% tariff on EU products exported to the US [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: On hold [9] - Options: short put @77,000 yuan/ton [9] Core Viewpoints - The domestic macro sentiment continues to recover, which is beneficial for the performance of risk assets. However, the US tariff policy may increase future uncertainties. The copper market is currently in a short - term situation of weak supply and demand, so the price is unlikely to show strong performance. Given the tight supply at the mine end, the possibility of a significant decline in copper prices is also limited. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate between 77,800 yuan/ton and 80,300 yuan/ton next week, and the operation is recommended to focus on buying hedges on dips [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On July 28, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,180 yuan/ton and closed at 79,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 79,130 yuan/ton and closed at 79,010 yuan/ton, a 0.04% increase from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper spot market remains weak. The SMM1 electrolytic copper is priced at 78,950 - 79,200 yuan/ton, with a premium of 50 - 140 yuan/ton over the current - month contract, and an average premium of 95 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan drop from the previous day. The Contango structure has narrowed to C40 - C20 yuan/ton. The market shows three characteristics: increased domestic and imported arrivals, significant regional differentiation, and tight supply of wet - process copper with a narrowing price difference between non - standard and standard products. It is expected that the downward space of the spot premium will narrow [2]. Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The Washington Federal Court rejected the request of an investment company to make the FOMC meeting public. The US Treasury has significantly increased its borrowing estimate for the third quarter to $1.007 trillion. The US and the EU have reached a trade agreement, alleviating market concerns about future uncertainties, but they are still discussing tariff exemptions for wine and spirits. The Fed's interest - rate meeting is coming up, and Trump has called for a rate cut this week [3]. - **Mine End**: First Quantum Minerals is still in negotiation with the Panama government and pays $15 million per month to maintain the shut - down Cobre copper mine, expected to increase to $17 - 18 million by the end of the year. Teck Resources' board has approved a C$2.1 - 2.4 billion ($1.6 - 1.8 billion) expansion project for the Highland Valley copper mine, which will extend its operation to the mid - 2040s, with an average annual output of 137,000 tons of copper [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: A new wave of senior executive departures at Trafigura Group is pressuring its stock - repurchase commitment. The company has postponed about 30% of the stock repurchases originally planned for this year, and the market is worried about potential delays next year [5]. - **Consumption**: The operating rate of the refined copper rod industry has dropped to 69.37%, a 4.85 - percentage - point decline from the previous week, lower than expected. The high copper price has suppressed terminal demand, leading to a "raw - material increase, finished - product accumulation" inventory pattern. The operating rate of the copper cable industry has dropped to 70.83%, a 2.07 - percentage - point decline from the previous week, with the largest year - on - year decline of 15.28 percentage points. SMM expects the operating rate to drop to 70.3% next week [6]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts have changed by 3,700 tons to 127,400 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts have changed by 1,699 tons to 17,832 tons. On July 28, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory is 120,300 tons, a change of 6,100 tons from the previous week. Last week, LME copper inventory continued to accumulate to 128,475 tons, SHFE copper inventory decreased by 13.17% to 73,423 tons, international copper inventory remained stable at 11,616 tons, and COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate to 248,635 tons [7][8]. Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously bullish. The price is expected to fluctuate between 77,800 yuan/ton and 80,300 yuan/ton next week, and it is recommended to buy hedges on dips [9]. - **Arbitrage**: On hold [9]. - **Options**: short put @77,000 yuan/ton [9]. Table 1: Copper Price and Basis Data - **Spot (Premium/Discount)**: The premium of SMM1 copper is 95 yuan, premium copper is 120 yuan, flat - water copper is 65 yuan, and wet - process copper is 5 yuan on July 29, 2025. - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 127,400 tons, SHFE inventory is 73,423 tons, and COMEX inventory is 225,558 tons. - **Warehouse Receipts**: SHFE warehouse receipts are 17,832 tons, and the proportion of LME cancelled warehouse receipts is 14.67%. - **Arbitrage**: The spread of CU10 - CU08 is - 40, CU09 - CU08 is 0, CU09/AL09 is 3.83, CU0/ZN09 is 3.49, the import profit is - 342 yuan, and the Shanghai - London ratio (main contract) is 8.09 [29][30][31].

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, China Copper achieved significant operational success, exceeding multiple performance targets set by the Aluminum Corporation of China (Chinalco), demonstrating resilience against challenges such as raw material supply constraints and declining treatment charges (TC) [1][2]. Financial Performance - China Copper's total profit reached 136.85% of the target set by Chinalco, while operating cash flow achieved 110.75% of the rolling target. The contribution to Chinalco's equity surpassed the target by 203.81% [2]. Industry Layout - The company is actively advancing its extension, strengthening, and supplementation strategies in its industrial layout, expanding its resource reserves in copper and lead-zinc mines. Key projects such as the Tangshan mixed ore base and the relocation of Yunnan Copper are progressing as planned, laying the groundwork for future capacity release [3]. Innovation Drive - China Copper is enhancing its development through innovation, increasing R&D investments, and achieving breakthroughs in key technology areas such as deep and high-altitude mineral development. The launch of the "Zhong Copper Data Analysis Platform 1.0" marks a significant step in data-driven decision-making across various operations [4]. Reform and Vitality - The company has made substantial progress in its reform initiatives, achieving a 96% completion rate in its overall reform actions by the end of June. The "Green Star Chain" platform was launched ahead of schedule, generating over 40 million yuan in effectiveness. The company is also advancing its restructuring efforts and has successfully issued a five-year, 500 million yuan technology innovation bond [5].

铜周报：国内政策推动铜价，关注铜关税落地 2025-7-28 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 咨询电话：027-65777106 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 01 主要观点策略 01 主要观点策略 供给端：铜矿供应持续偏紧，铜精矿加工费持续位于历史低位。截至7月25日，铜精矿进口粗炼费为-42.75美元/吨，铜精矿现货加 工费自5月初跌至-43美元后维持至今，供给端矿冶矛盾持续演绎。 需求端：上周（7月18日-7月24日）国内精铜杆企业开工率下降到69.37%，环比下降4.85个百分点，同比下降8.85个百分点。铜价 上涨后，下游消费在上周短暂回暖后又再度呈现疲弱，企业新增订单和提货量都有所减少，精铜杆企业的开工率出现下降。 库存：截至7月25日，上海期货交易所铜库存7.34万吨，周环比-13.17%，持续下探至历年低位。截止7月24日，国内铜社会库存 11.42万吨，周去库2.91万吨，环比-20.3 ...

【冠通研究】 关注宏观情绪变化 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 25 日 【策略分析】 今日盘面低开低走承压运行，何立峰将于 7 月 27 日至 30 日赴瑞典与美方举行经贸 会谈，中美谈判预期目前偏乐观，但不排除谈判推迟可能性。下周将迎来 50%关税的落 地期限，落地情况可能干扰市场波动幅度 供给方面，截至 2025 年 7 月 18 日，现货粗炼 费为-43.16 美元/干吨，现货精炼费为-4.31 美分/磅。冶炼厂粗炼费、精炼费本周均企 稳回升，7 月一家冶炼企业有检修计划，涉及精炼产能 15 万吨，对精炼铜产量影响有 限。SMM 预计 7 月国内电解铜产量环比增加 1.55 万吨，升幅为 1.37%。需求方面，截至 2025 年 5 月，电解铜表观消费 136.35 万吨，相比上月涨跌+8.08 万吨，涨跌幅+6.30%。 下游处于相对淡季，虽价格下跌后报价升水走强，但交投情绪依然偏弱，终端工业产品 如空调等均环比产量减少，下游按需跟进，市场观望情绪浓厚，上期所库存去化，终端 需求依然有韧性。综合来看，下周市场将迎来中美贸易谈判及关税的落地期限，宏观干 扰下，行情不确定性高，基本面库存低位支撑价格行情 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Global Macro Outlook**: The call discusses the macroeconomic environment, focusing on US rates, international rates, commodities, currencies, and emerging markets. Key Points on US Rates - **Value at Front-End**: There is a continued belief in value at the front-end of the yield curve, with 1Y1Y OIS rates appearing high on a medium-term basis. The expectation is for the Fed to ease later this year [3][11][16]. - **Treasury Issuance**: A projection of $629 billion in net T-bill issuance for the current quarter is made, as the Treasury aims to rebuild the TGA following the passage of the OBBBA [3][29]. International Rates - **Tariff Impact**: The announcement of a 30% tariff on EU goods has had little market reaction, with a focus on potential negotiations. The ECB is expected to keep rates on hold [4][42]. Commodities - **Oil Market Dynamics**: President Trump has issued a 50-day ultimatum to Russia regarding oil exports, threatening 100% secondary tariffs. This could lead to a significant supply shock in oil markets due to the scale of Russian exports and limited OPEC spare capacity [8][95]. - **Copper Tariffs**: The impending 50% US copper tariff could result in a 4% drag on refined copper demand growth in the US next year, although US copper demand only accounts for 6% of global demand [99][101]. Currencies - **USD Outlook**: A bearish outlook on the USD is maintained, with expectations of further weakness due to cyclical and structural factors. Recent data has shown mixed signals, but the overall medium-term view remains bearish [67][63]. - **EUR/USD Forecast**: The EUR/USD is expected to strengthen, with a target of 1.19 for Q3 and 1.22 for the next year, driven by US moderation and currency hedges rebalancing [78][80]. Emerging Markets - **Investment Strategy**: The recommendation is to stay underweight (UW) on EM sovereigns while maintaining a market weight (MW) stance on EM FX, local rates, and corporates. The outlook is cautious due to overvalued EM credit and overbought EM FX markets [8][5]. Additional Insights - **Treasury Funding Needs**: The Treasury is well-funded through FY25, but a significant funding gap is expected to emerge in FY26, necessitating coupon size increases starting in February 2026 [17][19]. - **Market Reactions**: The muted market reaction to tariff news indicates a focus on potential negotiations rather than immediate impacts [39][42]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current macroeconomic landscape and its implications for various sectors.