1. Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures rebounded from a low level and showed a strong performance throughout the day, while the spot market was generally sluggish with some price cuts and slower shipments. The downstream mainly made rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and there was no large - scale speculative restocking. Due to poor real - estate completion data, the market is pessimistic about glass consumption. With low production, weak consumption, high inventory, and short - term restocking unable to change the weak situation, attention should be paid to glass production line changes and real - estate data [1]. - Soda ash futures showed a weak and volatile trend with lower trading sentiment. The domestic soda ash price was weakly stable with flexible transaction prices. Enterprise production increased, especially for heavy soda ash, and inventory slightly decreased, but downstream demand was mainly rigid. With new production projects coming on stream, high supply pressure has reappeared, and attention should be paid to intermittent maintenance and new production of soda ash production lines [1]. Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - For silicomanganese, tariff fluctuations and poor off - season consumption expectations led to a collective decline in the black sector, with a 0.87% drop in silicomanganese futures. The spot market was weak, with prices in the north and south at 5550 - 5650 yuan/ton. Affected by industry profits, production is at a low level, although it has slightly rebounded week - on - week. With high pig iron production currently providing demand support but a strong expectation of a peak in pig iron production, high inventories of manufacturers and registered warrants are suppressing prices. Low - level and slightly rising manganese ore port inventory, along with falling manganese ore prices dragging down shipments, support alloy costs, and attention should be paid to the manganese ore supply side [3]. - Ferrosilicon futures followed the black sector and slightly declined. The spot market was weak with cautious operations. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade was 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton. With enterprises in losses, production has dropped to a near - historical low. High pig iron production maintains demand, but inventory reduction is weakening, downstream inventory is low, and production capacity is relatively abundant. Short - term prices are dragged down by costs, and attention should be paid to electricity price changes and industrial policies affecting the black sector [4]. 2. Strategy - Glass is expected to be in a volatile state, while soda ash is expected to be volatile and weak. There are no strategies for inter - delivery or inter - commodity trading [2]. - Both silicomanganese and ferrosilicon are expected to be in a volatile state [4].

| 业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [2011 ] 1292号 2025年5月26日 | | | | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 5月23日 | 5月22日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 8650 | 8650 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | 735 | 770 | -35 | -4.55% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | a500 | 9500 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | 785 | 820 | -35 | -4.27% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8050 | 8050 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 墓差(新疆) | ‍රි35 | 970 | -35 | -3.61% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 5月23日 | 5月22日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 2506-2507 ...

Group 1 - The recent mutual tariff reduction between China and the U.S. has led to a surge in orders for Chinese export companies, indicating a positive market response to the trade talks [1][3] - Companies like Shenzhen Sheng Tian Long Audio-Visual Technology Co. have reported receiving multiple urgent orders from U.S. clients shortly after the tariff announcement, highlighting the immediate impact on trade [1] - The American Apparel and Footwear Association welcomed the progress in U.S.-China trade talks, suggesting it may help alleviate trade tensions that have persisted for over a month [1] Group 2 - U.S. companies, such as Juniper Design Group, have resumed placing orders with Chinese suppliers after initially delaying them due to tariff increases, demonstrating a quick recovery in trade relationships [3] - The logistics market has seen a significant rebound, with container shipping orders from China to the U.S. increasing by nearly 300% following the tariff reductions [4] - Ports like Shenzhen Yantian Port are experiencing a busy shipping schedule, with an average of six cargo ships departing for the U.S. daily, reflecting the renewed demand for exports [4] Group 3 - The increase in shipping activity has also revitalized the U.S. domestic transportation market, with truck transport businesses reporting heightened activity due to the resumption of Chinese exports [5] - Chinese foreign trade companies are focusing on enhancing their market competitiveness and product quality to navigate the uncertainties of international trade [5] - The emphasis on strong supply chains and product quality is seen as essential for Chinese companies to thrive in a complex global trade environment, as noted by industry leaders [5]

Group 1 - The glass futures market is experiencing a downward trend with the main contract trading at 1015.00 CNY/ton, showing a decline of approximately 1.57% [1] - Current market sentiment is weak, with no significant positive support for glass prices, leading to a wide fluctuation around the bottom levels [1] - The real estate sector is still in an adjustment cycle, with a significant year-on-year decrease in housing completion area, which negatively impacts glass demand [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is affected by a sell-off in US bonds and a decline in US stocks, which lowers market risk appetite and negatively impacts commodity market sentiment [2] - The glass market faces a fundamental contradiction between supply contraction and demand decline, with downstream demand growth insufficient and slow payment issues prevalent [2] - Industry inventory levels are at a three-year high, leading to significant pressure on shipments, and the market is expected to remain weak as the rainy season approaches [2]

| *业期现日报 | F미 【2011 1292号 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纪元菲 | | | | | Z00T3180 | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | | 单位 | 市科 | 5月22日 | 5月21日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | | 8650 | 8700 | -50 | -0.57% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | | 770 | 832 | -65 | -7.78% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | | a200 | aeoo | -100 | -1.04% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | | 820 | વેડી | -115 | -12.30% | | | 新疆99硅 | | 8050 | 8100 | -20 | -0.62% | | | 基差(新疆) | | 970 | 1035 | -65 | -6.28% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | | 合约 | | 5月22日 | 5月 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is cautious, and the black commodity market shows a weak and volatile trend [1]. - For glass and soda ash, the downstream procurement is cautious, with glass opening high and closing low, and soda ash showing a narrow - range oscillation [1]. - For silicon - manganese and silicon - iron, the supply side is frequently disturbed, with silicon - manganese rising strongly and silicon - iron moving in a volatile manner [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures opened high and closed low yesterday. The spot market had dull trading, and the downstream procurement sentiment was average. This week, the national weekly average price of float glass was 1,251 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.35 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The enterprise operating rate was 75.34%, an increase of 0.34%. The manufacturer's inventory was 67.769 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 0.46% [1]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures showed a narrow - range oscillation yesterday. The spot market demand was average, mainly for rigid - demand procurement. This week, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 78.63%, a decrease of 1.64%. The output was 663,800 tons, a decrease of 2.04%. The inventory was 1.6768 million tons, a decrease of 2.06% [1]. Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: Recently, the glass output has slightly increased. Due to the insufficient recovery of real - estate and deep - processing demand, the restocking intensity and sustainability are weak. Although the glass inventory has slightly decreased, the de - stocking pressure is large, and the price lacks upward momentum. In the later high - temperature and rainy season, it is not conducive to glass storage, and enterprises may have a stronger intention to reduce prices for sales and inventory reduction [1]. - Soda Ash: Affected by the increase in alkali plant maintenance, the recent soda ash output has declined but remains in a loose state. Currently, the growth of the photovoltaic industry has slowed down, and the room for increasing soda ash demand is limited. The de - stocking pressure is still large. Attention should be paid to the summer maintenance of alkali plants and the progress of annual new - capacity production [1]. Strategy - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda Ash: Weakly volatile [2] Silicon - Manganese and Silicon - Iron Market Analysis - Silicon - Manganese: The market oscillated upward yesterday, with an increase of 14,243 open positions and a rapid expansion of trading volume. In the spot market, the mainstream steel tenders started to quote, and the market enthusiasm was average. Factories basically stopped quoting. Affected by industry profits, the silicon - manganese output continued to decline and was at a low level in previous years. The hot - metal output declined from a high level, and the demand for silicon - manganese weakened. The silicon - manganese manufacturer's inventory and registered warrants were at a high level, suppressing the silicon - manganese price. However, considering that the manganese ore port inventory was at a low level, the continuous decline in manganese ore prices had dragged down shipments, which supported the alloy cost. Attention should be paid to the supply side of manganese ore in the later stage [3]. - Silicon - Iron: The silicon - iron futures moved in a volatile manner yesterday, with a decrease of 7,875 open positions. In the spot market, the silicon - iron market was weak, with mostly cautious operations and little change in transaction prices. Against the background of enterprise losses, the silicon - iron output remained at a medium - low level. The hot - metal output reached the peak and then declined, and the demand for silicon - iron began to weaken. The manufacturer's inventory continued to be depleted, and the downstream enterprise inventory remained at a low level. The silicon - iron production capacity was relatively loose, and the short - term price was dragged down by costs. Attention should be paid to the impact of electricity price changes and industrial policies on the black sector in the future [3]. Strategy - Silicon - Manganese: Volatile [4] - Silicon - Iron: Volatile [4]

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: May 23, 2024 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, although supply has decreased and demand has rebounded, there is still inventory accumulation. The futures price lacks the impetus for continuous growth, and the price will re - enter the downward channel with a potentially weak and volatile trend on the market [8][9]. - For glass, supply has significantly declined, demand is in the traditional off - season, and the demand - boosting effect of policies is limited. The price trend will be weak and volatile in the short term [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data on May 22**: SA509 opened at 1284 yuan/ton, closed at 1286 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton or 0.54%, with a decrease of 24,595 lots in positions; SA601 closed at 1276 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.07%, with an increase of 3,943 lots in positions; FG509 closed at 1018 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.77%, with an increase of 64,371 lots in positions; FG601 closed at 1074 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.73%, with an increase of 6,554 lots in positions [7]. - **Soda Ash Market**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Central China was 1380 - 1480 yuan/ton, and that of light - quality soda ash was 1250 - 1380 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day. Weekly production dropped to 663,800 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week decrease; the capacity utilization rate dropped to 78.63%. The shipment volume was 699,000 tons, a 4.81% week - on - week increase. The weekly inventory of heavy - quality soda ash was 860,000 tons, with a slight reduction [8]. - **Glass Market**: Glass production has dropped significantly to the level of late February, and there is a possibility of further decline. The glass market has entered the traditional off - season, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is difficult to improve significantly in the short term. Policy support has little effect on boosting demand, and the price will be weak and volatile [10][11]. 2. Industry News - In April 2025, China's soda ash exports were 170,600 tons, a decrease of 23,700 tons month - on - month, with an average export price of $189.13/ton. The cumulative export volume from January to April was 653,900 tons, a 112.02% increase year - on - year. Imports were 4,600 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons month - on - month, with an average import price of $216.79/ton. The cumulative import volume from January to April was 14,500 tons, a 97.58% decrease year - on - year [12]. - The market price of baking soda in Henan remained stable, with the mainstream ex - factory price of food - grade baking soda at 1180 - 1260 yuan/ton [12]. - The domestic float glass market had mixed price changes, with most prices remaining stable. In North China, prices were mostly stable with some minor increases, and the market trading atmosphere was average [12]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, the market price of heavy - quality soda ash in Central China, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [17][18][16].

Group 1 - Industrial production remains stable, with a slight year-on-year decrease in blast furnace operating rates by 0.5 percentage points to 2.6% [2][5] - In the chemical sector, except for a significant drop in soda ash production, other areas like PTA and polyester filament show improvement, with year-on-year increases of 3.4 percentage points to 4.7% and 1.9 percentage points to 4.8% respectively [2][17] - The automotive semi-steel tire operating rate has improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 15.5 percentage points to -2.4% [2][17] Group 2 - Construction industry shows mixed performance; national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates are significantly lower than last year, with year-on-year changes of 1.5 percentage points to -3.5% and -0.6 percentage points to -6.9% respectively [2][28] - Asphalt operating rates have increased significantly, with a year-on-year rise of 4.8 percentage points to 6.8% [2][40] Group 3 - The real estate market continues to decline, with average daily transaction area for new homes dropping by 45.7% year-on-year to -12% [2][52] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput related to exports have also decreased, with year-on-year declines of 15.3% to -6.2% and 7.1% to -0.3% respectively [2][63] Group 4 - Agricultural product prices show divergence; vegetable and egg prices have decreased by 2.2% and 0.6% respectively, while pork prices remain stable and fruit prices have increased by 0.7% [3][105] - Industrial product prices have rebounded, with the South China industrial product price index rising by 2% [3][117]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the construction materials sector, indicating expected performance above the market index [2][4]. Core Insights - Urban renewal is anticipated to accelerate, with a focus on local construction and consumer building materials, driven by government policies aimed at enhancing existing building utilization and improving urban infrastructure [3][4]. - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from increased orders related to urban renewal projects, particularly in waterproof materials, coatings, and piping [3][4]. Summary by Sections Cement - The national average cement price decreased by 1.1% last week, with regional price changes ranging from a drop of 10-30 CNY/ton in North, East, and Central South China, while prices in Liaoning and Henan increased by 20 CNY/ton. Demand showed a slight increase week-on-week but remains 6-7% lower year-on-year [3][22]. Glass - The float glass market continued to show weakness, with an average price of 1306.73 CNY/ton, down 0.82% from the previous week. Demand remains weak, and supply is stable with a production capacity utilization rate of 80.08% [3][35]. Fiberglass - The price of non-alkali fiberglass remained stable, with mainstream prices for 2400tex ranging from 3500-3800 CNY/ton, averaging 3735.25 CNY/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [3][46]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resilient consumer building material leaders, particularly those benefiting from second-hand housing and renovation demand, recommending companies such as Sanke Tree, Beixin Building Materials, and others [4]. - For the cement and fiberglass sectors, companies like Anhui Conch Cement and China Jushi are highlighted for their potential recovery in performance [4].

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