Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - **Overall**: The report provides short - term outlooks for various agricultural products including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs, analyzing their market trends based on factors such as weather, supply - demand, and policies [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term consolidation. Consider factors like US biodiesel policy and inventory levels [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term adjustment. Pay attention to US biodiesel hearings and Sino - Canadian relations [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bullish, but be cautious when chasing the market. Monitor Malaysian palm oil inventory and US biodiesel agreements [1][10]. - **Cotton**: Rebound is under pressure. Watch for Trump's latest tariff remarks [1][14]. - **Jujube**: Wide - range oscillation. Be wary of new production - related fluctuations [1][16]. - **Live Pigs**: Weak oscillation. Focus on the slaughter rhythm [1][19]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Data**: Futures price (main contract daily closing) rose 0.41% to 2947 yuan/ton; national average spot price increased 0.10% to 2897.14 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: US soybean planting weather is generally smooth, South American harvest is certain. Domestic ports and oil mills are in the inventory - building stage, and feed companies' restocking enthusiasm may slow down [1]. - **Outlook**: Short - term consolidation, watch for the outcome of biodiesel policy [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: Futures price (main contract daily closing) rose 0.39% to 2586 yuan/ton; national average spot price remained unchanged at 2565.79 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Inventory is decreasing, but still at a relatively high level year - on - year. High tariffs and reduced imports support prices, but low spot price difference with soybean meal affects consumption [1][7]. - **Outlook**: Short - term adjustment, pay attention to US biodiesel hearings [1][7]. Palm Oil - **Market Data**: Futures price (main contract daily closing) rose 0.39% to 8678 yuan/ton; national average price increased 0.94% to 8830 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Southeast Asian inventory - building cycle has started, but there are positive factors such as Chinese and Indian low - price purchases and US biodiesel policies. US tariff on Indonesia may benefit Malaysian palm oil [1][10]. - **Outlook**: Short - term bullish, but be cautious when chasing the market. Monitor Malaysian palm oil inventory and US biodiesel agreements [1][10]. Cotton - **Market Data**: Zhengzhou cotton main contract CF2509 rose 0.33% to 13830 yuan/ton; domestic spot price decreased 0.09% to 15189 yuan/ton [11][12]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Internationally, US cotton planting is mostly completed, with high planting area and good quality. India's planting area is increasing, and Brazil's output is expected to rise. Domestically, new cotton growth is good, inventory is decreasing, and imports are shrinking. However, downstream orders are weakening [12][13][14]. - **Outlook**: Rebound is under pressure, watch for Trump's latest tariff remarks [1][14]. Jujube - **Market Data**: Main contract CJ2601 decreased 0.10% to 10425 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: New - season jujube trees are growing well, current inventory is high, and demand is weak [16]. - **Outlook**: Wide - range oscillation, be wary of new production - related fluctuations [1][16]. Live Pigs - **Market Data**: Main contract Lh2509 decreased 0.04% to 14265 yuan/ton; domestic spot price decreased 0.40% to 15000 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is still in an increasing cycle, demand is marginally weakening [18]. - **Outlook**: Weak oscillation, focus on the slaughter rhythm [1][19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term. The price is affected by factors such as the good weather in US soybean - producing areas, high oil - mill开机率 due to concentrated arrival of imported soybeans, increasing demand in the aquaculture season, the substitution advantage of soybean meal, and the market's wait for Sino - US trade negotiation news [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is under pressure from the off - season of oil consumption, abundant domestic vegetable oil supply, and high inventory in oil mills. However, the decrease in oil - mill开机率 and the potential impact of fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter and the possible tightening of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations on future rapeseed exports to China should be noted [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9468 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2611 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; ICE rapeseed is 681.6 Canadian dollars/ton, down 23 Canadian dollars; and rapeseed is 5069 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - Spreads and positions: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 56 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 295 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil are 17084 lots, up 1352 lots; those of rapeseed meal are - 11937 lots, down 109 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3021, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 15030, down 633 [2]. 现货市场 - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9680 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2510 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9720 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 4891.19 yuan/ton, down 150.27 yuan [2]. - Basis and spreads: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 170 yuan/ton, up 138 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is - 101 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1540 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 980 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 290 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons. The import volume of rapeseed is 33.55 million tons, down 15.37 million tons. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; that of rapeseed meal is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - Inventory and开机率: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 20 million tons, up 5 million tons. The weekly开机率 of imported rapeseed is 12.53%, up 1.07 percentage points [2]. Industrial Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 10.01 million tons, down 1.14 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.46 million tons, down 0.64 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 59.95 million tons, down 1.64 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 35.58 million tons, down 1.32 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 6.9 million tons, down 0.3 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 29.3 million tons, down 0.8 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 2.11 million tons, down 0.89 million tons; that of rapeseed meal is 2.32 million tons, down 1.16 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4578.2 billion yuan, up 411.2 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options of rapeseed meal is 16.22%, down 0.78 percentage points; the historical volatility of 20 - day rapeseed meal is 13.78%, down 0.47 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options of rapeseed oil is 12.89%, down 0.48 percentage points; the historical volatility of 20 - day rapeseed oil is 14.7%, up 0.16 percentage points [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures fell more than 3% on July 9th due to technical selling and weak performance of other vegetable oils, with the most actively traded November contract down 23.01 Canadian dollars to 681.09 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The USDA reported that as of July 6th, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, unchanged from the previous week and lower than 68% in the same period last year [2]. Key Concerns - Pay attention to the results of the US EPA hearing, the rapeseed开机率 and inventory data from Myagric, and the development of Sino - Canadian and Canada - US trade disputes [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The international soybean market has a relatively loose supply - demand balance. Domestic soybeans face inventory accumulation pressure. For sugar, the domestic market is influenced by the weak international market. In the oil sector, palm oil is in a production - inventory increase phase, and domestic oils have different supply - demand characteristics. Corn has a complex domestic supply - demand situation, and its futures are expected to bottom - oscillate. The hog market is expected to be volatile under a loose supply - demand situation. Peanuts may be short - term strong but face long - term downward pressure. The egg market has different trends for different contracts. Apples are expected to be volatile in the short term. Cotton is expected to have limited upward space [5][9][16][25][30][35][42][47][52] Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index dropped 0.12% to 1013.75 cents/bushel, and CBOT meal index fell 0.21% to 280.4 dollars/short ton [2] - **Information**: USDA export sales and monthly supply - demand report have certain forecasts. Brazilian farmers sold less soybeans in 2025, and domestic oil mill data shows supply - demand status [2][3] - **Logic**: International and domestic soybean markets have a loose supply - demand balance [5] - **Strategy**: Low - point long positions, MRM09 spread expansion, and option watching [6] Sugar - **External Market**: ICE US sugar rose, with the main contract up 0.41 (2.54%) to 16.54 cents/pound [7] - **Information**: Forecasts for Brazilian sugar production are down year - on - year. Import costs and profits are provided, and domestic sugar prices are adjusted [8] - **Logic**: International sugar is weak, and domestic sugar follows the international trend [9] - **Strategy**: Zheng sugar oscillates, spread watching, and using out - of - the - money ratio spread options [10][11] Oils - **External Market**: CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil prices changed slightly [13] - **Information**: Forecasts for global soybean and EU rapeseed production. Domestic oil trading volume increased [14][15] - **Logic**: Palm oil is in production - inventory increase, and domestic oils have different supply - demand situations [16] - **Strategy**: Short - term oscillation, spread and option watching [17][18][19] Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market**: CBOT corn futures stabilized [21] - **Information**: Corn inventory and trading volume data in domestic ports, and processing data [23] - **Logic**: US corn has limited downside, and domestic corn has a complex supply - demand situation [25] - **Strategy**: Long on 09 corn, spread operation, and using call - writing strategy for those with spot [26][27] Hogs - **Information**: Hog, piglet, and sow prices are provided, and relevant agricultural product price indices are given [30] - **Logic**: Hog prices are supported but expected to be volatile [30] - **Strategy**: Short - side thinking, LH91 positive spread, and option watching [31] Peanuts - **Information**: Peanut and peanut product prices, and inventory data are provided [33][34] - **Logic**: Peanuts may be short - term strong but face long - term downward pressure [35] - **Strategy**: Short on 10 peanuts at high points, spread watching, and selling pk510 - C - 8800 options [36][38] Eggs - **Information**: Egg prices, production, and sales data are provided [40] - **Logic**: Different egg contracts have different trends [42] - **Strategy**: Long on the 9 - month contract, spread watching, and selling put options [43] Apples - **Information**: Apple inventory, import - export, and price data are provided [45] - **Logic**: Apples are expected to be short - term oscillatory [47] - **Strategy**: Low - buying and high - selling on AP10, spread watching, and selling put options [48] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market**: ICE US cotton rose [49] - **Information**: China's cotton inventory data and spot trading information are provided [50] - **Logic**: US cotton may be short - term weak but has potential positives, and Zheng cotton has limited upward space [51][52] - **Strategy**: Oscillation for US cotton, short - term slightly strong but limited upward space for Zheng cotton, spread watching, and selling put options [53]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is "Neutral" [4][6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The domestic soybean price oscillated recently. In the short - term, the gap in domestic soybean inventory supports price resilience, but the increase in imported soybean arrivals and weak demand for soybean meal limit the upside. In the long - term, the good weather in new - season soybean production areas and the global supply surplus will drag down the domestic price. Policy factors also affect the supply expectation, and the price will maintain a range - bound movement [3] - The domestic peanut price also oscillated. In the short - term, the low inventory of old peanuts and the tight supply of high - quality peanuts support the price, but the expected supply pressure in September and potential inventory pressure may affect the price. In the long - term, if there is no extreme weather in 2025, the new - season peanut supply will be abundant, and the support level may decline. There are also uncertainties such as weather, import arrivals, and the impact of soybean production on peanut prices [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybean 2509 contract was 4111.00 yuan/ton yesterday, up 7.00 yuan/ton (+0.17%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The basis of edible soybean spot was A09 + 189, down 7 (-32.14%) from the previous day [1] Market Information - On Tuesday, CBOT soybean futures closed lower, with the benchmark contract down 0.3%. As of the close, soybean futures fell between 2.75 and 10.25 cents. The prices of different contracts are as follows: July contract down 7.50 cents to 1024.25 cents/bushel; August contract down 10.25 cents to 1021.25 cents/bushel; November contract down 3.25 cents to 1017.50 cents/bushel [2] - On July 19, the prices of national standard first - class soybeans in various markets in Heilongjiang remained unchanged from the previous day [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - Short - term: There is a gap in domestic soybean inventory, but the increase in imported soybean arrivals (estimated at 9.5 million tons in July) and weak demand for soybean meal limit the upside [3] - Long - term: The good weather in new - season soybean production areas and the global supply surplus will drag down the domestic price, and the weak domestic food consumption also restricts the price increase [3] Policy Factors - Pay attention to the provincial reserve auction volume in July and the rotation rhythm of Sinograin. If the auction transaction rate exceeds 70%, it may strengthen the expectation of loose supply, but the purchase price of Sinograin provides some support [3] Peanut Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 8176.00 yuan/ton yesterday, up 56.00 yuan/ton (+0.69%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8900.00 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The basis was PK10 + 24.00, down 156.00 (-86.67%) from the previous day [4] Market Information - The current prices of peanuts in different regions are as follows: Henan Zhengyang Baisha general rice is about 4.50 - 4.60 yuan/jin; Shandong Linyi Junan Haohua general rice is about 4.10 yuan/jin; Liaoning Changtu 308 general rice is about 4.50 - 4.60 yuan/jin; Xingcheng Huayu 23 general rice is about 4.50 yuan/jin; Jilin 308 general rice purchase price is about 4.50 - 4.60 yuan/jin [4] Supply and Demand Analysis - Short - term: The inventory of old peanuts is low, and the high - quality peanuts support the price. However, the delayed arrival of imported peanuts and the upcoming new - season peanuts may bring supply pressure in September, and the demand vacuum after the oil mills stop purchasing may also affect the price [5][6] - Long - term: If there is no extreme weather in 2025, the supply of new - season peanuts will be abundant, and the decrease in planting costs may lead to a downward shift in the support level [6] Uncertainties - The weather during the key growth period from April to July may cause yield fluctuations; the concentrated arrival of peanuts from Senegal after the port re - opens may overlap with the new - season peanuts; the bumper harvest of South American and North American soybeans may suppress the price of peanut meal and affect the peanut price [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [5] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a pattern of loose supply, and the domestic cotton price is supported in the short - term but restricted in the long - term [2] - The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle, and the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited [5] - The pulp market has supply pressure and weak demand, and the price is difficult to break away from the bottom in the short - term [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,830 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton (+0.33%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: 3128B cotton Xinjiang arrival price was 15,163 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,184 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton [1] - US cotton: As of July 6, the budding rate was 48%, 3 percentage points slower than last year; the bolling rate was 14%, 4 percentage points slower than last year; the good - excellent rate was 52%, 7 percentage points higher than last year [1] Market Analysis - International: The supply - side weather narrative is insufficient this year. The 25/26 global cotton market is in a loose supply pattern. The US cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate following the macro - market sentiment [2] - Domestic: The cotton commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly, supporting the Zhengzhou cotton price in the short - term. However, the new cotton production is likely to increase, and the demand is weak, restricting the upward space [2] Strategy - Adopt the idea of shorting far - month contracts on rallies [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,779 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (+0.56%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,040 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [3] - Forecast: The estimated sugarcane crushing volume in the second half of June in Brazil's central - southern region was 44.24 million tons, down 9.7% year - on - year; the sugar production was 2.95 million tons, down 9.8% year - on - year [3] Market Analysis - ICE raw sugar: The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle, suppressing the price in the long - term. There is a possibility of a short - term rebound [5] - Zhengzhou sugar: The domestic sugar sales progress is fast, and the industrial inventory is at a low level. But the import profit is high, and the import volume is expected to increase, restricting the upward space [5] Strategy - Expect a range - bound and weak - oscillating pattern in the third quarter, and focus on the arrival rhythm of imported sugar [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,106 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (+0.39%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean silver star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,935 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the price of Russian needles was 5,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - Market: The import wood pulp spot market price was mostly stable, with sporadic fluctuations [5] Market Analysis - Supply: The wood pulp import volume increased in the first half of 2025, and the domestic pulp production capacity will be put into operation in the second half of the year. The port inventory is high, and the supply pressure exists [6] - Demand: Affected by policies and the off - season, the global and domestic pulp demand is weak, and the improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited [6] Strategy - The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and the pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom in the short - term [7]

农产品日报 | 2025-07-10 现货保持稳定，豆粕震荡运行 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2947元/吨，较前日变动+12元/吨，幅度+0.41%；菜粕2509合约2586元/吨，较前 日变动+10元/吨，幅度+0.39%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2850元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M09-97， 较前日变动-12；江苏地区豆粕现货2780元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M09-167，较前日变动-12；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2780元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M09-167，较前日变动-12。福建地区菜粕现货价格2590 元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差RM09+4，较前日变动+0。 近期市场资讯，巴西外贸秘书处数据显示，7月初巴西大豆出口步伐相对去年同期放慢。1-4日，巴西大豆出口量为 191.8万吨，日均出口量为47.9万吨，同比降低2.0%；去年7月份全月出口1125.0万吨。1-4日，巴西豆粕出口量为23.0 万吨，去年7月全月出口203.2万吨。官方数据显示，2024/25年度乌克兰油菜籽出口量仅为314万吨，较上年 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: July 10, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products - Report Focus: Analysis of various agricultural futures including palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, soybean, corn, sugar, cotton, eggs, live pigs, and peanuts 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Report Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Macro sentiment drives up prices, but limited upside from fundamentals [2] - **Soybean Oil**: Insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans, lacking upward drivers [2][5] - **Soybean Meal**: Concerns over trade and falling US soybean prices may lead to weak and volatile prices of Dalian soybean meal futures [2][12] - **Soybean**: Stable spot prices, volatile futures prices [2][12] - **Corn**: Undergoing shock adjustment [2][16] - **Sugar**: In a consolidation phase [2][23] - **Cotton**: Tight inventory expectations for old crops continue to support futures prices [2][27] - **Eggs**: Attention should be paid to the realization of spot prices during the peak season [2][34] - **Live Pigs**: Spot market sentiment is weakening [2][36] - **Peanuts**: Prices have support at the bottom [2][42] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot prices, trading volumes, open interests, and basis are provided. For example, the closing price of palm oil futures (day session) was 8,678 yuan/ton, up 0.39% [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: Analysts expect Malaysia's palm oil production to recover in the 2025/26 season, with a 0.5% year - on - year increase to 19.5 million tons. However, domestic consumption is expected to decline by 2% to 38 million tons [6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Both palm oil and soybean oil have a trend intensity of -1, indicating a bearish outlook [11] 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of DCE soybean, DCE soybean meal, CBOT soybean, and CBOT soybean meal, as well as spot prices and basis in different regions are presented. For instance, the closing price of DCE soybean meal 2509 (day session) was 2,947 yuan/ton, up 0.31% [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 9, CBOT soybean futures fell for the third consecutive day due to concerns over US trade policies and good weather conditions in the Midwest [12][15] - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal has a trend intensity of -1, while soybean has a trend intensity of 0 (only for the day - session main contract futures price fluctuation on the reporting day) [13] 3.3 Corn - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices in different regions such as Northeast, Jinzhou, North China, and Guangdong, as well as futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and basis of different contracts are given. For example, the closing price of C2509 (day session) was 2,319 yuan/ton, down 0.04% [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn port prices remained stable, while prices in Northeast and North China mostly declined. Imported sorghum and barley prices were also reported [18] - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [21] 3.4 Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: Prices of raw sugar, mainstream spot, and futures, as well as price spreads and basis are provided. For example, the raw sugar price was 16.56 cents/pound, up 0.43% [23] - **Macro and Industry News**: Pakistan approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar; Brazil's central - southern MIX increased significantly year - on - year; India's monsoon rainfall was higher than the long - period average; Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar in June, a 5% year - on - year increase [23] - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of 0 [25] 3.5 Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of CF2509, CY2509, and ICE cotton, as well as spot prices in different regions, trading volumes, open interests, and price spreads are presented. For example, the closing price of CF2509 (day session) was 13,830 yuan/ton, up 0.33% [28] - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was mostly quiet, and the overall basis remained stable. Cotton textile enterprises' market changed little, with weak orders and large losses for spinning enterprises [29] - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [32] 3.6 Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price spreads of different contracts, as well as spot prices in different regions, are provided. For example, the closing price of egg 2508 was 3,484 yuan/500 kg, up 1.07% [34] - **Trend Intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [34] 3.7 Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices in different regions such as Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong, as well as futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price spreads of different contracts are given. For example, the closing price of live pig 2509 was 14,265 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [38] - **Market Logic**: The current market is in the expectation trading stage. The expectation of state reserve purchases has formed a policy bottom sentiment, and the unanimous bullish expectation from July to August has driven the near - term sentiment. However, the futures price offers hedging profits, increasing market competition. Attention should be paid to the spot market performance in the future [40] - **Trend Intensity**: Live pigs have a trend intensity of 0 [39] 3.8 Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices in different regions such as Liaoning, Henan, and Xingcheng, as well as futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price spreads of different contracts are presented. For example, the closing price of PK510 was 8,176 yuan/ton, up 0.86% [42] - **Spot Market Focus**: In the spot market, the remaining inventory in production areas is almost exhausted, and the raw material acquisition is nearing the end. The prices of good - quality peanuts are firm, while the prices in most regions are stable or slightly weak [43] - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [46]

Core Insights - The article discusses the decline in U.S. agricultural futures ahead of the USDA's monthly report, raising questions about its potential impact on grain market direction [1] - It highlights the influence of weather conditions in the U.S. Midwest on yield expectations, which could further affect market dynamics [1] Group 1 - U.S. agricultural futures are experiencing a widespread decline [1] - The upcoming USDA monthly report is anticipated to provide guidance for the grain market [1] - Weather conditions in the Midwest are a critical factor influencing yield expectations [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [2] - Sugar: Neutral [5] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season is expected to be in a supply - loose pattern. US cotton futures prices are likely to oscillate, and domestic cotton prices are supported in the short - term but face pressure in the long - term [2] - The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle, suppressing ICE raw sugar prices in the long - run. Brazilian raw sugar may rebound in the short - term, and Zhengzhou sugar's upside is limited [4][5] - The pulp supply pressure persists, and the demand is weak. The pulp price may remain at the bottom in the short - term [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,785 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (+0.18%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,175 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,193 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. As of July 5, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 7.3%, up 2.3 percentage points week - on - week, 5% slower than last year [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply - side weather narrative is insufficient this year, and the global cotton market is supply - loose. US cotton futures prices are expected to oscillate. Domestically, the commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, supporting prices in the short - term. However, the new cotton production is likely to increase, and the demand in the off - season is weak. In the long - term, the new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral to bearish strategy. Recommend shorting distant - month contracts on rallies [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5747 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.12%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6020 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5865 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Brazil exported 67.73 tons of sugar and molasses in the first week of July, a 34.63% decrease from last year [3] Market Analysis - ICE raw sugar prices are under long - term pressure due to the increasing production cycle. However, there may be a short - term rebound. Zhengzhou sugar's spot price is firm due to low inventory, but the upside is limited by potential imports [4][5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Expect the sugar price to oscillate weakly in the third quarter, and focus on the arrival rhythm of imported sugar [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5086 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton (+0.24%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import pulp market prices showed mixed trends [5][6] Market Analysis - Supply: The wood pulp import increased in the first half of 2025, and domestic production capacity is expected to increase. The port inventory is high, and the supply pressure remains. Demand: Affected by policies and the off - season, the demand is weak, and the improvement in the second half of the year is limited [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and the pulp price may stay at the bottom in the short - term [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - 豆一: ★★★ [1] - 豆油: ★★★ [1] - 棕榈油: ★★★ [1] - 豆粕: ★★★ [1] - 菜粕: ★★★ [1] - 菜油: ★★★ [1] - 玉米: ★★★ [1] - 生猪: ★★★ [1] - 鸡蛋: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - 农产品市场各品种表现分化，短期需关注天气、政策和经贸谈判等因素指引，中长期部分品种受产能影响存在价格压力 [2][3][4] Summary by Category Soybean and Its Products - 国产大豆主力合约减仓价格止跌反弹，东北产区天气利于生长，政策端购销双向交易成交好；进口美豆产区天气未来一周利于生长，短期关注天气和政策 [2] - 美国大豆优良率正常，未来两周产区降雨波动、温度略低，特朗普政府税率威胁执行推迟，连粕震荡，国内油厂压榨量高、豆粕库存上升，中美贸易不确定多，大连豆粕先以震荡对待 [3] - 棕榈油增仓上涨，豆油减仓震荡，6月马来西亚棕榈油产量降、需求增、库存降，关注MPOB报告和欧洲及黑海葵花籽天气，三季度海外棕榈油处增产周期，长期植物油逢低多配，短期关注政策和产区天气 [4] Rapeseed and Its Products - 菜粕低开高走小涨，菜油为植物油板块最弱，基本面围绕外盘菜籽产区天气和经贸谈判，国外产区天气风险降低菜籽承压，菜系单边趋势不明显，菜粕弱势震荡，菜系油粕比短期有向上波动空间 [6] Corn - 大连玉米震荡，市场聚焦阶段性供应，7月受中储粮拍卖影响供应上量价格走低，基层贸易商增加供应，山东现货增加，南北港库存攀升，需求疲软，玉米期货或继续震荡 [7] Livestock Products - 生猪期价回落，现货稳定，前期盘面上涨现货下跌后基差收窄，6月能繁母猪存栏上升，中长期猪价有下行压力 [8] Eggs - 鸡蛋主力08合约减仓反弹，7月为淡旺季转折点但今年中秋晚旺季或延后，现货报价稳定，8月合约对现货升水近千元，关注旺季启动和升水收敛，长期产能去化不足蛋价未见底 [9]