Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai fell over 2% to 102,590 yuan, while London copper hovered around $13,000 [4] - The macroeconomic outlook is neutral to bearish, with a cooling U.S. employment market and support for a strong dollar impacting copper prices [5][19] - The fundamental outlook is neutral to bullish, with a fixed investment target of 180 billion yuan for the Southern Power Grid by 2026, and a planned investment of over 24 billion yuan in Q1, a 20% year-on-year increase [6][19] - Short-term price fluctuations are expected to remain resilient due to global strategic reserves intensifying supply-demand tensions [6][19] - Today's trading range for Shanghai copper is suggested to be between 101,000 and 105,000 yuan per ton, with strategies recommending reducing positions before the holiday [6][19] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - The macro sentiment is showing marginal recovery, leading to an overall rebound in the non-ferrous sector [20] - Nickel supply is tight due to weather-related shipping disruptions in the Philippines and rainfall affecting Indonesian supply [20] - The stainless steel market faces oversupply pressures, with limited terminal demand, although suppliers are showing a strong willingness to maintain prices due to low arrivals and strong cost support [20][21] Group 3: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market experienced a general decline, with alumina futures prices slightly dropping while spot prices stabilized [22] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association indicated that a "reverse involution" policy for alumina will be introduced, but its impact will take time to materialize [22] - In January, 64.9% of the alumina industry was operating at a loss, with 23.8% of production facing cash cost losses [22] - The trading range for alumina futures is suggested to be between 2,600 and 2,900 yuan per ton, with a strategy of high selling and low buying within this range [23][22] Group 4: Zinc Market - Zinc prices showed weak fluctuations, influenced by mixed macroeconomic data from the U.S. [24] - February is expected to see a slight increase in processing fees, with a reduction in supply exceeding 50,000 tons due to production days and maintenance [24] - The demand side is affected by environmental controls in the north and reduced operations in galvanizing, leading to a return to a quiet market ahead of the holiday [24] Group 5: Lead Market - Lead prices showed a strong fluctuation, with tight supply from primary lead and a relatively loose supply from recycled lead due to transportation costs [25] - The market is entering a traditional off-season, with downstream purchasing primarily driven by essential needs, leading to an increase in inventory [25] - The trading range for lead futures is suggested to be between 16,500 and 17,500 yuan per ton [25] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced a slight rebound, although some gains were given back due to neutral to hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials [27] - The market is influenced by mixed economic data, with the ADP employment change significantly below expectations, while the ISM non-manufacturing PMI was slightly above expectations [27] - The long-term bullish logic for precious metals remains intact despite short-term volatility risks, with gold long positions recommended to be held [27]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 2 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 供需格局偏弱，矿价承压运行 | 期货研究报告 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局变化不大，库存持续高位攀升，钢厂生产弱稳，且淡季钢市产业矛盾累积，矿石 需求延续弱势格局，继而拖累矿价。与此同时，国内港口到货低位回升，而矿商发运则是持续增加， 海外矿石供应企稳，相应的内矿供应平稳，叠加库存高企，供应压力未退。目前来看 ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2026 年 2 月 5 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | ن ان استرند | | 生」 生 イ | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農药 | 農筋偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 烧碱 | 橡胶 | 燃油 | | | | 三十债 | 白糖 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | 合成橡胶 | 二债 | 沥青 | | | | 生猪 | 棉花 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 棉纱 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | 红枣 | 十债 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | 铁矿石 | 五债 | 焦炭 | | | | | 尿素 | 焦煤 | | | | | 原油 | PVC | | | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 2 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 短期恐慌抛售暂缓，去美元化长 期趋势不变 | | 铜 | 2603 | 强势 | 震荡 | 强势 | 长线看强 缩 | 短期恐慌抛售暂缓，国内供应收 | 期货研究报告 品种：铜（CU） 日内观点：强势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations before rising, with Wind All A Index increasing by 0.45% and a trading volume of 2.5 trillion yuan [10] - The cyclical sectors showed strong performance, while the CSI 1000 Index fell by 0.02%, the CSI 500 Index rose by 0.15%, the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.83%, and the SSE 50 Index rose by 1.14% [10] Economic Policies - Recent economic adjustment policies have been introduced, providing fundamental support for the indices [10] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to establish a national-level merger fund, regulate local economic promotion behaviors, and advance significant high-tech projects during the 14th Five-Year Plan [10] Monetary Policy - The central bank lowered various structural monetary policy tool rates by 25 basis points, aiming to support specific financing needs in sectors like technological innovation and carbon reduction [10] - This rate cut is expected to guide funds into relevant sectors, boosting valuations and reducing financing costs in the long term [10] Market Sentiment - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced an increase in the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100%, indicating a rise in risk-averse sentiment among investors [10] - The market is currently in a high-level fluctuation mode, with increased short-term volatility, suggesting a cautious approach is advisable [10] Bond Market - On Wednesday, government bond futures closed with the 30-year main contract down by 0.23%, the 10-year down by 0.01%, the 5-year down by 0.04%, and the 2-year down by 0.02% [11] - The central bank conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a bid rate of 1.4%, maintaining the same rate as the previous operation [11] Precious Metals - Overnight, London spot gold and silver experienced a pullback, while platinum and palladium showed slight increases [12] - The gold-silver ratio slightly decreased to around 56, and the platinum-palladium price difference rose to approximately 491 USD/ounce [12] - The U.S. ISM services PMI for January was reported at 53.8, matching the highest level since October 2024, but new orders showed signs of slowing down [12]

宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 2 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 多空因素交织，焦煤震荡整理 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 向上驱动有限，焦炭低位运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：2 月 4 日夜盘，焦煤主力合约低开低走，未延 ...

1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Precious Metals High Volatility Continues, Stock Index Trends Diverge - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20260205" [1] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 3. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The nomination of Kevin Warsh as a candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chairman is expected to have limited impact on the market. The market views him as a hawkish figure, but it's difficult for him to implement the policy of shrinking the balance sheet. There are resistances for significant hawkish or dovish turns. Attention should be paid to the Iran-US situation and the US government shutdown [9]. - Domestic macro: The positive policy expectation remains the macro main - line. There is a growing expectation that policies in the first quarter will boost the economy to achieve a "good start" in the 15th Five - Year Plan. The policy environment is favorable. In January, both fiscal and monetary policies were proactive, and the economy showed overall stability with strong exports [9]. - Asset views: Emphasize the structural opportunities of portfolio allocation. Recommend over - allocating IC and non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin). The domestic policy expectation, loose liquidity, and inflation recovery expectation support the equity market. Treasury bonds are neutral, with better short - end opportunities. Precious metals have high short - term volatility and are recommended to be observed. Non - ferrous metals are relatively advantageous, and black commodities are volatile. Crude oil has high uncertainties [9]. 4. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 4.1 Market Data 4.1.1 Index Futures and Treasury Bonds - Index futures: The prices and various period - on - period changes of CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures are presented. For example, the CSI 300 futures price was 4693.6, with a daily increase of 0.2%, a weekly decrease of 0.37%, etc. [2]. - Treasury bonds: Information on 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures is given, including prices and period - on - period changes. For example, the 2 - year treasury bond futures price was 102.398, with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2]. 4.1.2 Foreign Exchange and Interest Rates - Foreign exchange: The dollar index was 97.3872, with a daily decrease of 0.23%, and the dollar intermediate price was 6.9385, with a decrease of 68 pips [2]. - Interest rates: Data on various interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank deposit - based pledge rate, 10Y Chinese treasury bond yield, 10Y US treasury bond yield, etc., and their changes are provided [2]. 4.1.3 Industry Index - The prices and various period - on - period changes of different industries are shown, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, national defense and military industry, etc. For example, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery index was 5718.7165, with a daily increase of 1.39% [3]. 4.1.4 Domestic and Overseas Commodities - Domestic commodities: Information on various domestic commodities such as shipping, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products is presented, including prices and period - on - period changes. For example, the gold price was 1143.37, with a daily increase of 4.39% [4]. - Overseas commodities: Data on overseas energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products are provided, including prices and period - on - period changes. For example, the NYMEX WTI crude oil price was 63.9, with a daily increase of 2.83% [6]. 4.2 Viewpoints on Different Asset Classes 4.2.1 Financial Assets - Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, with the trend stabilizing and style complementing gains [10]. - Stock index options are expected to be volatile, with implied volatility continuing to decline and selling options to increase income [10]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile, as they fell across the board, and factors such as the implementation of monetary policies need to be concerned [10]. 4.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be volatile, as geopolitical conflicts have eased and the "Warsh trade" suppresses liquidity expectations [10]. 4.2.3 Shipping - The container shipping to Europe line is expected to be volatile, as spot freight rates are under pressure and shipping companies are reducing prices to attract cargo before the festival [10]. 4.2.4 Black Commodities - Steel products, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are all expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors such as cost support, market sentiment, and supply and demand [10]. 4.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals - Copper, aluminum, nickel, stainless steel, etc. are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while others like zinc, lead, etc. are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as market sentiment, supply and demand, and policies [10]. 4.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Most energy and chemical products such as crude oil, LPG, and asphalt are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply pressure, demand, and geopolitical situations. Styrene is expected to rise in a volatile manner [12]. 4.2.7 Agricultural Products - Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors. For example, cotton is expected to rise in a volatile manner, while sugar is expected to decline in a volatile manner [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, industrial silicon, carbonates, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It presents market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies for each sector, suggesting a cautious and diversified approach to investment in the commodity futures market [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Domestic precious metals opened higher and then dived last night. Shanghai gold closed down, while Shanghai silver closed up [1] - **Fundamentals**: The US service PMI was strong, while ADP employment was weak. The US Treasury maintained the bond issuance scale and did not increase the issuance of medium - and long - term bonds in the next few quarters. The US resumed the Iran - US negotiation. Domestic gold ETFs had an inflow of 1.2 tons, and there were changes in inventories of various gold and silver products [1] - **Trading Strategy**: For gold, reduce long positions and wait and see in the short term, while still being optimistic in the long term. For silver, the spot market remains tight, but the market is volatile and sentiment is fragile, so it is advisable to participate with caution [1] Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated weakly yesterday [2] - **Fundamentals**: After the shocks on Friday and Monday, risk appetite needs time to recover. The Sino - US leaders' call at night partially repaired risk appetite. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and China called for restricting investment in smelting projects. The spot of flat - water copper in East and South China was traded at a discount of about 150 yuan, and the refined - scrap price difference fluctuated around 3000 yuan [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the price to stabilize and then buy [2] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.61% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 23955 yuan/ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The US is expected to launch a key mineral reserve plan, and the market risk appetite has recovered. The LME aluminum price stopped falling and rebounded. It is expected that the electrolytic aluminum price will fluctuate strongly [2] Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main alumina contract increased by 0.53% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 2824 yuan/ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: Some alumina plants entered the production - reduction and rotation - maintenance stage, while aluminum smelters maintained high - load production [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price shows signs of stopping falling, and with the increasing number of industry maintenance and production cuts, the marginal change in the supply side becomes the core factor leading the market. It is expected that the alumina price will maintain a weakly strong trend in the short term. Follow up on the maintenance and production - cut situation of alumina plants [2] Industrial Metals and Chemicals Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract opened flat in the morning on Wednesday, fluctuated narrowly throughout the day, and closed at 8850 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [3] - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces decreased this week, mainly in Xinjiang. The polysilicon and organic silicon industries are promoting anti - involution. The polysilicon output in January is expected to decline to 100,000 tons, and the weekly output of the organic silicon industry continues to decrease slightly. The aluminum alloy operating rate stabilizes at around 60% [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The fundamentals show weak supply and demand. The market focuses on the production - cut situation and duration of large factories this week. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8400 - 9200 yuan. If the production - cut duration of large factories is limited, consider shorting at high prices with light positions [3] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 147,220 yuan/ton (- 880), with a closing price decrease of 0.59% [3] - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) remained unchanged. Some lithium salt plants carried out maintenance, and the weekly output decreased. The output of lithium - iron phosphate and ternary materials in January decreased, and the production in February is expected to continue to decline. The inventory is expected to be in a tight - balance state in January, and the total inventory days increased. The warehouse receipts in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The current price reflects high demand expectations. The industrial end expects the material - end production in March to be weaker than that in January. The core is the game between high raw material prices and high - growth demand. It is expected to fluctuate highly in the short term [3] Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract opened flat in the morning on Wednesday, fluctuated and rose throughout the day, and closed at 51195 yuan/ton, an increase of 1195 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [3] - **Fundamentals**: The weekly output decreased by 6%, and the industry inventory increased by 4% this week. The warehouse receipts increased significantly this week. The silicon wafer production in February remained stable, while the component production decreased by more than 10% month - on - month. The total photovoltaic installed capacity in 2025 is expected to exceed 300GW, exceeding market expectations. The component export in December increased by 10% year - on - year, and the cancellation of the photovoltaic export tax - refund policy on the 9th supports component exports during the window period [3] - **Trading Strategy**: There are rumors that the industry association is re - calculating production costs. In the short term, focus on the spot transaction price range. The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly between 45000 - 53000 yuan [3] Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices fluctuated weakly yesterday [3] - **Fundamentals**: Market risk appetite needs time to recover, and the Sino - US leaders' call helped repair market sentiment. US technology stocks declined significantly, and the AI narrative may be shaken. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and there was a landslide in an Indonesian tin mine. The domestic deliverable brand had a premium of about 800 yuan, and the London structure had an 850 - dollar contango. The domestic warehouse receipts decreased by 377 tons [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the price to stabilize and then buy [3] Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3105 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading - day night - session closing price [4] - **Fundamentals**: The building - material apparent demand decreased by 610,000 tons to 3.38 million tons week - on - week, and the production decreased by 330,000 tons to 3.97 million tons. The building - material demand expectation is weak, but the supply has decreased significantly year - on - year. The plate demand is stable, and direct and indirect exports remain high. The inventory level is still high, but the marginal change in inventory is the strongest in the same period in history. Steel mills continue to lose money, and the production increase space is limited. The steel spot is relatively weak, and the futures valuation is neutral. It is expected that the steel futures and spot markets will fluctuate widely in the short term [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for RB05 is 3090 - 3150 yuan [4] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 773.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading - day night - session closing price [4] - **Fundamentals**: The Australia - Brazil shipment volume increased by 1.27 million tons to 25.21 million tons week - on - week, and decreased by 2.49 million tons year - on - year. The arrival volume increased by 440,000 tons to 26.69 million tons week - on - week, and increased by 8.17 million tons year - on - year. The iron - ore supply and demand are neutral. The molten - iron production decreased by 100 tons to 2.28 million tons week - on - week, and increased by 10,400 tons year - on - year. The first - round price increase has been implemented, and there are no further price - increase plans. Steel mills' profits are poor, and the subsequent blast - furnace production may decrease slightly. The supply is in line with seasonal rules and slightly increases year - on - year. The furnace - charge replenishment is nearly over, and the inventory days continue to rise to near the historical average level. The proportion of mainstream iron - ore inventory in ports is extremely low, and the structural contradiction persists. The iron ore maintains a forward - discount structure but is slightly lower year - on - year, and the valuation is neutral. It is expected that the iron - ore futures and spot markets will fluctuate widely in the short term [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 760 - 790 yuan [4] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1187.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading - day night - session closing price [4] - **Fundamentals**: The molten - iron production decreased by 100 tons to 2.28 million tons week - on - week, and increased by 10,400 tons year - on - year. Steel mills' profits are poor, and the subsequent blast - furnace production may decrease slightly. The first - round price increase has been implemented, and there are no further price - increase plans. The inventory at different supply - chain links is differentiated, with high inventory at ports and mine mouths and low inventory at other links. The overall inventory level is neutral. The 05 - contract futures are at a premium to the spot, and the forward - premium structure is maintained. The coking - coal supply and demand are weak [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for JM05 is 1160 - 1210 yuan [4] Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The CBOT soybeans rose sharply overnight, driven by the expectation of China purchasing US soybeans after the Sino - US leaders' call [5] - **Fundamentals**: In the supply side, the near - term supply is loose, and the long - term supply from South America is expected to be large. Brazil has entered the early - harvest stage, and private institutions expect an increase in production, while Argentina may face dry weather. In the demand side, US soybean crushing is strong, and exports meet expectations. Overall, the global supply - demand situation is expected to be loose [5] - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are strong. Pay attention to China's purchase of US soybeans and the realization of South American production. The domestic market is weaker than the overseas market, showing a differentiation between domestic and foreign markets due to the increase in US soybean prices and the decrease in South American price discounts [5] Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices fluctuated narrowly, and most corn spot prices fell [5] - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress has passed half, and the grain - selling pressure is not large. However, at the end of the year, the grain - selling mentality in the Northeast production area has loosened, and the enthusiasm for selling grain has increased. The inventories of north - south ports, downstream feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises are lower than in previous years, but the enthusiasm for building inventories at the current price is not high. Southern imported grains are cost - effective, and enterprises tend to import for supplementation. In the short term, the enthusiasm for selling grain in the Northeast is high, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate and fall, and the futures price is expected to follow the decline. Pay attention to weather and policy changes [5][6] - **Trading Strategy**: The enthusiasm for selling grain in the Northeast production area has increased, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm - oil market rose yesterday [6] - **Fundamentals**: In the supply side, MPOA estimates that the Malaysian production from January 1 - 20 decreased by 14% month - on - month, in the seasonal production - reduction period. In the demand side, exports improved month - on - month, and high - frequency ITS data shows that Malaysian exports increased by 18% month - on - month in January. Overall, the near - term inventory - reduction logic holds [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats are strong in the short term. Trade based on seasonal production reduction and biodiesel expectations. In the medium term, pay attention to production and biodiesel policies [6] Cotton - **Market Performance**: The ICE US cotton futures prices fluctuated and fell overnight, while international crude - oil futures prices continued to rise. The Zhengzhou cotton futures prices entered a shock - adjustment phase, but the long - term upward trend remains valid [6] - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, as of the week ending January 31, the cumulative listed volume of cotton in Pakistan in the 2025/2026 season was 859,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In December, Argentina exported 10,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month decrease of 14.1% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. Domestically, according to the BCO announcement, some enterprises in Xinjiang maintained stable production and sales, and overall orders were relatively sufficient [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy at low prices. The price range is 14500 - 15000 yuan/ton [6] Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices were weak, and egg spot prices fell more sharply [6] - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply and demand, the number of laying hens in production decreased. The previous increase in egg prices led to improved profits, and the enthusiasm for replenishing the flock increased, and the price of chicks rose rapidly, slowing down the capacity reduction. The stocking is coming to an end, the risk - control sentiment in the trading end has increased, the inventory has increased significantly, the egg price has fallen rapidly, the demand has weakened, and the egg price is expected to fall seasonally, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] - **Trading Strategy**: The demand has weakened, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Pigs - **Market Performance**: Most pig futures prices rebounded, while pig spot prices continued to fall [6] - **Fundamentals**: As the Spring Festival approaches, with the start of Spring - Festival stocking, the slaughter volume is expected to increase rapidly in the next week. However, the average daily slaughter pressure this month is large, and the slaughter progress is slow. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak, and the pig price is expected to be weak [6] - **Trading Strategy**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract continued to fluctuate slightly yesterday. The low - price spot price in North China was 6700 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis was 180 yuan lower than the futures price. The basis was weak, and the market transaction was average. Overseas, the US - dollar price remained stable, and the import window was closed [7] - **Fundamentals**: In the supply side, new plants were put into operation earlier, and some plants reduced their loads or stopped production, so the domestic supply pressure slowed down. The import window remained closed, and the import volume is expected to decrease slightly later. Overall, the domestic supply pressure is rising but at a slower pace. In the demand side, the current downstream agricultural - film season is off - peak, and the demand has weakened month - on - month, while the demand in other fields remains stable [7] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the industrial - chain inventory is slightly reduced, the basis is weak, and the supply - demand situation before the Spring Festival is weak. Pay attention to geopolitical situations. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and the upside space is significantly restricted by the import window. In the medium term, the new production capacity will decrease in the first half of the year, and the supply - demand pattern will improve. It is recommended to buy at low prices [7][8] PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 5130 yuan, an increase of 0.4% [8] - **Fundamentals**: The PVC atmosphere was boosted, and the price rose. The supply was large, with the January output expected to be 2.148 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.49% and a year - on - year increase of 2.46%. The expected operating rate in the fourth quarter is 78 - 80%. The downstream factory operating rate dropped to about 36%. The real - estate market weakened in December, and the new construction and completion decreased by 25% year - on - year. The social inventory accumulated at a high level, and the PVC social inventory on January 30 was 1.2064 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.45

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-2-5 ⾦银冲⾼回落，短线震荡延续 ⽇内⾦银价格冲⾼后震荡回落，回吐部分涨幅，主要受美伊和俄乌地缘紧 张局势升级、以及美国政府暂停部分"停摆"等影响。当地时间2⽉3⽇， 美军在阿拉伯海击落伊朗⼀架⽆⼈机，同⽇俄军出动70余枚导弹、450 架 ⽆⼈机袭击乌克兰，推升市场避险情绪；此外，同⽇特朗普在⽩宫签署政 府拨款法案、结束政府部分"停摆"。4⽇晚间公布的美国1⽉ADP就业⼈ 数、ISM⾮制造业PMI均不及前值，⼀定程度上提振市场降息预期。预计 短线⾦银价格仍维持宽幅震荡，⽩银操作建议谨慎；近⽇地缘局势升级叠 加美国就业数据⾛软对贵⾦属形成⽀撑；但当前⾦银市场波动率仍处于⾼ 位，波动⻛险较⼤，⽩银端尤为明显。（数据来源：万得；新闻来源：央 视新闻、中新⽹） 黄金观点：短线大概率呈现宽幅震荡走势。 逻辑：万得数据显示，日内海内外金价冲高回落，COMEX金价一度 站上5100美元/盎司，沪金一度站上1100元/克；主要受益于美伊、俄 乌地缘局势在和谈前生变推升的避险情绪，然而投资者信心仍偏脆 弱。据央视新闻、北京日报报道，2 月 ...

早上好，先来关注下美伊谈判。 中东多国紧急游说 美国恢复原定于6日举行的美伊谈判 据央视新闻消息，当地时间2月4日，在多位中东领导人紧急游说特朗普政府放弃退出谈判的威胁后，原定于6日举行 的美伊核谈判计划得以恢复，谈判将在阿曼举行。 美国稍早前曾拒绝伊朗将原定会议地点由土耳其伊斯坦布尔改到阿曼的提议。据悉，此次僵局引发了整个中东地区的 担忧，担心特朗普会转而采取军事行动。该地区至少有九个国家通过最高级别渠道联系白宫，强烈敦促美国不要取消 会议。 当地时间2月4日，伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐就伊朗在阿曼与美国会谈的官方立场作出澄清，称谈判将于6日上午10点左 右在阿曼首都马斯喀特举行。并对阿曼为此次谈判所做的一切必要安排表示感谢。 蒂利斯这张反对票可能导致银行委员会在表决沃什的提名时出现平票局面，进而阻止提名诉诸参议院全院表决。 美国司法部1月9日向美联储送达传票，威胁对鲍威尔2025年6月在参议院银行委员会就美联储办公楼翻新项目作证一 事提起刑事诉讼。鲍威尔随后发表声明说，美国联邦检察官对其相关指控都是"借口"，直言遭调查是因为美联储"没 有遵从总统意愿"来设定利率。 2026年1月我国大宗商品价格指数创三年半新高 ...