关注微信公众号 | V (FF) | *业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月15日 | | | | 纪工菲 Z0013180 | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品相 | 5月14日 | 5月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 0000 | 9100 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基美(通氢SI5530基准) | eto | 870 | -260 | -29.89% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 10000 | 10000 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | 710 | 970 | -260 | -26.80% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8300 | 8300 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 墓差(新疆) | 610 | 870 | -260 | -29.89% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 5月14日 | 5 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, in the short - term, there is a marginal improvement. Driven by production cut expectations, the soda ash futures price in May may have a brief and small - scale rebound, but it lacks the power for continuous growth. In the long - term, the market is in an oversupply situation. Around mid - to late May, as the positive effects of maintenance fade and the supply - demand contradiction becomes prominent again, the price will enter a downward channel [8]. - For glass, the overall profit in the float glass production field using natural gas, coal, and oil as main raw materials has increased slightly. The current output of float glass remains relatively stable. The demand side is relatively dull, and downstream enterprises' inventory has accumulated to some extent. The futures price is approaching the production cost line, and the cost support is expected to show in the short - term. The short - term market has an expectation of rushing for exports due to the Sino - US tariff agreement, which provides some support to the market. However, the continuous game of supply - demand relationship is still the key factor for the subsequent trend of the float glass market [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: On May 15, for soda ash futures, SA505 opened at 1272, closed at 1296, up 24 yuan/ton (1.88%), with a position of 0.29 million lots and a decrease of 218 lots; SA509 opened at 1285, closed at 1345, up 35 yuan/ton (2.67%), with a position of 118.72 million lots and a decrease of 162,061 lots. For glass futures, FG505 opened at 1015, closed at 1042, up 6 yuan/ton (0.57%), with a position of 0.42 million lots and a decrease of 749 lots; FG509 opened at 1015, closed at 1046, up 14 yuan/ton (1.35%), with a position of 140.96 million lots and a decrease of 53,826 lots [7]. - **Soda Ash Situation**: The supply and demand of soda ash both decreased, and the inventory accumulation situation still exists. In the week of May 8, the weekly output of Chinese soda ash reached 757,000 tons, which was at the highest level this year though it declined compared with the previous week. The weekly operating load rate of Chinese soda ash remained at 90%. As of May 8, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 711,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.26%. The weekly enterprise inventory of Chinese soda ash (heavy soda ash) remained at 872,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,100 tons, continuing the inventory accumulation trend [8]. - **Glass Situation**: The supply side of glass has a slight profit increase, and the output is stable. The demand side is dull, and downstream enterprises purchase conservatively, leading to inventory accumulation. The futures price is approaching the production cost line, and cost support is expected to emerge in the short - term. The Sino - US tariff agreement brings short - term export expectations [9][10]. 3.2 Industry News - **Soda Ash Market**: The domestic soda ash market was slightly adjusted today. The trading atmosphere was lukewarm. Some soda ash plants such as Henan Junhua, Huachang Chemical, and Shilian Chemical had production stoppages or were under maintenance, reducing the supply. The futures market fluctuated, and downstream demand was average, with end - users mainly making rigid purchases. Some soda ash plants in East China raised their new order quotes slightly [11]. - **Glass Market**: The domestic float glass market prices continued to decline steadily. Different regions had different price trends: North China was weak, East China was affected by price cuts in surrounding areas, Central China had mixed price changes, South China had a small price increase in some enterprises, and Southwest China's price was stable [11]. - **Baking Soda Market**: Henan Jinshan Chemical's baking soda plant started maintenance last night. The quoted price for food - grade, feed - grade, and industrial - grade baking soda is 1250 - 1300 yuan/ton, with actual orders negotiated separately, and the sales were stable [11]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and the output of flat glass, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [13][17][18].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillation [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillation [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [4] 2. Core Views - The improvement of tariff policies has led to positive market sentiment, with glass, soda ash, and ferrous alloys showing rebounds [1][3] - Glass and soda ash markets face challenges in supply - demand balance, while ferrous alloys are affected by factors such as tariff policies, industry profits, and raw material costs [1][3] 3. Summary by Product Glass - Market: The glass futures market showed a strong - side oscillation, while the spot market had general transactions with manufacturers offering discounts [1] - Supply - demand: Glass production has been declining, but due to insufficient demand recovery in real estate and deep - processing industries, inventory has increased significantly, and prices lack upward momentum. Enterprises may be more inclined to reduce prices to clear inventory during the high - temperature and rainy season [1] Soda Ash - Market: The soda ash futures market oscillated upwards with a significant increase in trading volume, and the spot market was stable with flexible transaction prices [1] - Supply - demand: Soda ash production has declined due to increased alkali plant maintenance but remains in a loose state. The growth of photovoltaic demand has slowed down, and the pressure to reduce inventory is still large [1] Silicomanganese - Market: After the mutual reduction of tariffs between China and the US, the market sentiment improved, and the silicomanganese futures rebounded slightly. The spot market was fair, with some factories reducing production for maintenance. The northern market price was 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, and the southern market price was 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - demand: Silicomanganese production has continued to decline due to industry profits and is at a low level over the years. Iron - making water production remains high, providing demand resilience. High inventories of manufacturers and registered warrants suppress prices, but low manganese ore port inventories support alloy costs [3] Ferrosilicon - Market: The ferrosilicon futures rebounded slightly following the black - metal sector, while the spot market was weak with cautious operations. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production area was 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, and that of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - demand: Ferrosilicon production remains at a medium - low level due to corporate losses. High iron - making water production maintains demand resilience, and factory inventories are continuously decreasing, while downstream enterprise inventories are low. Short - term prices are dragged down by costs [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of precise and scientific nitrogen oxide (NOx) emission control in industries, highlighting the risks associated with excessive ammonia (NH3) injection and the need for systematic pollution management [1][2][3]. Group 1: Current Issues in NOx Control - Some companies are resorting to blindly increasing ammonia injection to reduce NOx concentrations, leading to significant ammonia escape issues that require urgent attention [1][2]. - Ammonia escape not only affects environmental quality but also increases operational costs for companies, with estimates suggesting that a typical daily glass production facility could waste 25% of ammonia, leading to additional costs exceeding 200,000 yuan annually [2][3]. Group 2: Consequences of Ammonia Escape - Escaped ammonia reacts with sulfur oxides to form ammonium sulfate, which can cause blockages and corrosion in downstream equipment, increasing maintenance costs and reducing operational efficiency [3][4]. - Local regulations are being established to limit ammonia emissions, as evidenced by a recent fine imposed on a cement company for exceeding ammonia concentration limits [3]. Group 3: Solutions for Ammonia Escape - To mitigate ammonia escape, companies should implement automatic reagent addition systems and real-time monitoring of ammonia emissions, adjusting ammonia injection based on various operational parameters [5]. - Enhancing the performance of denitrification catalysts and ensuring optimal operating conditions for denitrification equipment are crucial for minimizing ammonia escape and achieving stable NOx emission standards [4][5].

PPI：油价强势反弹 生产：轮胎开工率降至年内次低 需求：集运运价指数止跌 CPI：猪价低位拉锯 统计口径误差。数据统计大多为抽样，恐与现实情况有些许出入。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 (1) 电厂日耗季节性下行。5 月 13 日，6 大发电集团的平均日耗为 74.7 万吨，较 5 月 6 日的 75.1 万吨下降 0.6%。5 月 7 日，南方八省电厂日耗为 173.7 万吨，较 4 月 28 日的 186.7 万吨下降 7.0%。 (2) 高炉开工率维持高位。5 月 9 日，全国高炉开工率 84.6%，较 5 月 2 日上升 0.3 个百分点；产能利用率 92.1%， 较 5 月 2 日上升 0.1 个百分点。5 月 9 日，唐山钢厂高炉开工率 94.3%，较 5 月 2 日持平。 (3) 轮胎开工率降至年内次低。5 月 8 日，汽车全钢胎（用于卡车）开工率 44.8%，较 5 月 1 日下降 11.5 个百分点； 汽车半钢胎（用于轿车）开工率 58.4%，较 5 月 1 日下降 14.1 个百分点。 (4) 江浙地区织机开工率小幅回升。5 月 8 日，江浙地区涤纶长丝开工率 92.0%，较 5 月 1 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings and General Market Outlook - No explicit report industry investment rating provided [1] - The core view is that various commodities show different trends based on factors such as national policies, trade negotiation results, and supply - demand fundamentals. Market sentiment has been affected by factors like China - US trade talks and inflation data [1] Group 2: Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Since April, with the support of national policies and Central Huijin's funds, the stock index has recovered the technical gap formed by the tariff shock on April 2. The current risk - return ratio of chasing the rise is not high. Holders of long positions can consider reducing positions on rallies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: Short - term market risk appetite has recovered, and the gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1] - **Silver**: Overall, it follows gold, but an unexpected tariff result will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term resilience of the silver price may be stronger than that of gold [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: The result of China - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and short - term market sentiment has improved. However, the copper price has significantly rebounded and may fluctuate [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The aluminum electrolysis industry has no obvious contradictions. With the unexpected result of China - US trade negotiations, the aluminum price continues to rebound. Supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, and the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved. The short - term price may further rebound [1] - **Zinc**: Although the macro sentiment has improved, the terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and with the inflow of imported goods, the zinc price remains weak [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: US inflation has cooled more than expected, and the result of China - US talks has exceeded market expectations. The export order expectation of terminals has improved, and market risk appetite is expected to recover. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and the premium of nickel ore is high. There are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines, but the implementation is difficult. The nickel price fluctuates in the short term, and there is still pressure from the surplus of primary nickel in the medium - to - long term. The short - term stainless steel futures fluctuate and rebound, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Tin**: With the unexpected result of China - US talks and improved macro sentiment, the tin price is expected to rebound. The resumption of production in Wa State needs to be continuously monitored [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, it has entered the low - valuation range, demand has not improved, inventory pressure has not been relieved, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, the first delivery is approaching, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream raw material inventory is at a high level, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] Group 4: Ferrous Metals Sector - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The trade turmoil has intensified the pressure on the export chain. The short - term risk appetite is slightly poor, and the opening price dives downward [1] - **Iron Ore**: The tariff policy affects market sentiment, and the iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is still an expectation of decline under the expectation of manganese ore surplus, and the variety has heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand situation has become tight [1] - **Glass**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. With the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price continues to be weak [1] - **Soda Ash**: There are many overhauls in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is medium - term supply surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus and are short - positioned in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunities of cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedging when the market rebounds to a premium. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: The rise in crude oil will drive the rebound of palm oil, and the China - US talks will drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to short after the crude oil price falls [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China - US talks are expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil sentiment in the short term, dragging down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting stage. The China - Canada relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it is expected to cause a large decline. Consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream finished products. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [1] - **Sugar**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Supply Company, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 663.4 million tons, a 2% decline from the previous year. The sugar production is expected to reach a record 4.59 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year. If the crude oil price continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season and lead to an unexpected increase in sugar production [1] - **Corn**: The overall situation of deep - processing in the Northeast has stabilized, the decline in Shandong's deep - processing has slowed down. The import corn auction policy and China - US economic and trade talks have a negative impact on sentiment. The market回调 in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the C07 - C01 calendar spread arbitrage [1] - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market continues to digest the negative factors of spot pressure and Brazilian selling pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the unexpected China - US trade negotiation on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Logs**: The arrival volume of logs remains high, the overall inventory is high, and the price of terminal products has declined. There is no short - term positive factor, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - **Pigs**: With the continuous repair of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase. The market expectation is obvious, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and there are no bright spots in the downstream [1] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil - Related (Fuel Oil, Palm Oil)**: The result of China - US trade negotiations far exceeds market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. After a sharp decline, there is a demand for rebound and repair [1] - **BR Rubber**: The result of China - US trade negotiations is unexpected. In the short term, the raw material cost support is strengthened due to rainfall in the production area. In the medium - to - long term, the fundamentals are loose, and demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline [1] - **PTA, Short - Fiber, and Related Products**: The upstream PX device is under intensive maintenance, and the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The demand for PTA is supported by the high load of polyester. The PTA shortage strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high basis [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based devices have started to be overhauled [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The improvement of China - US tariff policies stimulates market speculative demand, the pure benzene price gradually strengthens, the profit of the reforming device declines, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1] - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens, the trading volume is average. In the short term, the methanol price fluctuates in a range and is slightly strong. In the medium - to - long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] - **PE, PP, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: For PE, the basis strengthens, and the trading volume is general. It fluctuates slightly strongly in the short term and may change from strong to weak in the medium - to - long term. For PP, some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, demand is stable, and it fluctuates slightly strongly with macro - positive factors. For PVC, the fundamentals are weak, and it rebounds in the short term with macro - positive factors. For caustic soda, the spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]

Group 1: Glass and Soda Ash - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The market sentiment for glass and soda ash is pessimistic, with both showing an oscillating downward trend. Glass production is decreasing, but due to insufficient demand recovery in the real - estate and deep - processing sectors, inventory is piling up. Soda ash production has declined due to increased plant maintenance, but the supply remains abundant, and the demand improvement space is limited [1] - Market analysis - Glass: The glass futures market oscillated downward yesterday, with strong pessimism. In the spot market, the Shahe market was weak, the East China market had a narrow - range adjustment, the Central China market's prices were weak, the South China market's prices were stable for now, and the Northeast market remained unchanged. Overall, the shipment was average, mainly for external sales [1] - Soda ash: The soda ash futures market oscillated weakly yesterday. In the spot market, the domestic soda ash market was stable with oscillations, and the transaction prices were flexible. The daily production of soda ash decreased, with an operating rate of 75.45% [1] - Supply - demand and logic - Glass: Recently, glass production has been on a downward trend. However, due to insufficient demand recovery in the real - estate and deep - processing sectors, the replenishment intensity and sustainability are weak, leading to obvious inventory accumulation. The high - temperature and rainy season is unfavorable for glass storage, and enterprises may have a stronger intention to reduce prices for inventory clearance [1] - Soda ash: Affected by increased plant maintenance, soda ash production has declined recently but remains in a loose state. Currently, the growth of the photovoltaic industry has slowed down, the demand improvement space for soda ash is limited, and the inventory clearance pressure is still large [1] - Strategy - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] Group 2: Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The market for silicomanganese and ferrosilicon is sluggish, with continuous increases in maintenance. The production of both is affected by industry profits and is at a low level, but the demand has certain resilience. The high inventory of silicomanganese manufacturers suppresses prices, while the low - level manganese ore port inventory supports the alloy cost. The ferrosilicon price is currently dragged down by costs [3] - Market analysis - Silicomanganese: The market expectation has been weak recently. A large - scale silicomanganese enterprise in Chongqing decided to shut down 2 furnaces for maintenance. The daily average production of silicomanganese this week was 22,065 tons, with a theoretical weekly production of 154,455 tons. The silicomanganese futures market oscillated strongly. In the spot market, the silicomanganese market oscillated, with few quotes. The price in the northern market was 5,600 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5,650 - 5,750 yuan/ton [3] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures market followed the black - goods sector, rising and then falling. In the spot market, the ferrosilicon market was weak, and most operations were cautious. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,900 - 5,950 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - demand and logic - Silicomanganese: Affected by industry profits, silicomanganese production continues to decline and is at a low level over the years. The high pig - iron production maintains the demand for silicomanganese. The high inventory of silicomanganese manufacturers and registered warrants suppresses the price. However, the low - level manganese ore port inventory and the continuous decline in manganese ore prices support the alloy cost. Future attention should be paid to the supply side of manganese ore [3] - Ferrosilicon: In the context of enterprise losses, ferrosilicon production remains at a medium - low level. The high pig - iron production maintains the demand for ferrosilicon. The manufacturers' inventory is continuously decreasing, and the downstream enterprises' inventory is at a low level. The ferrosilicon production capacity is relatively abundant, and the short - term price is dragged down by costs. Future attention should be paid to the impact of electricity price changes and industrial policies on the black - goods sector [3] - Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillation [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [4]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the construction and building materials industry, with specific recommendations for companies like Honglu Steel Structure, China Jushi, Puyang Refractories, Hainan Huatie, Beixin Building Materials, China Chemical, China State Construction, Shanghai Port, and China National Materials [3]. Core Insights - The cement industry shows signs of improvement in the fundamentals from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with a focus on corporate discipline and peak production implementation, as well as cement price trends [3][10]. - The glass industry experienced widespread losses in Q4 2024, but there was a significant improvement in Q1 2025, driven by the price of photovoltaic glass [3][15]. - The fiberglass sector saw a general improvement in profitability from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with all sample companies achieving profitability due to stable price increases and effective industry self-discipline [3][16]. - The consumer building materials sector continues to face declining revenues and profits, with expectations of sustained pressure on downstream demand from construction completions [3][20]. - The construction industry is experiencing a decline in revenue and profits among major companies, indicating weak operational data [3][24]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry - The cement industry's fundamentals improved from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with a narrowing decline in production growth rates and a recovery in net profits for leading companies [10]. - The national average cement price in early May 2025 was slightly lower than the same period last year, indicating a need to monitor price trends closely [10]. Glass Industry - The glass sector faced significant losses in Q4 2024, but Q1 2025 showed marked improvement, particularly in photovoltaic glass pricing [15]. - Key variables to watch include glass price trends and downstream demand changes [15]. Fiberglass Industry - Fiberglass companies reported improved profitability in Q1 2025, attributed to stable price increases and effective supply-side management [16]. - The inventory levels remained stable, indicating a weak balance in supply and demand [16]. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is experiencing a downward trend in revenue and profits, with expectations of continued pressure on demand from construction completions [20]. - The report highlights the correlation between construction completions and downstream demand [20]. Construction Industry - The construction sector is seeing a decline in revenue and profits among major companies, with many reporting weak operational data [24]. - The report notes that most central construction enterprises experienced a decline in orders, revenue, and profits in Q1 2025 [24].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the stable operation of industrial production, marginal improvement in infrastructure construction, and a significant increase in human mobility and travel intensity, indicating a mixed economic recovery trend. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains stable, with a slight year-on-year decrease in blast furnace operating rates by 0.6 percentage points to 3.1% [2][5] - The chemical sector shows marginal improvement, with soda ash, PTA, and polyester filament operating rates increasing by 1.5, 1.2, and 1.6 percentage points to 1.3%, 1.2%, and 2.9% respectively [2][13] - However, the automotive sector experiences a significant decline, with semi-steel tire operating rates dropping by 11.3 percentage points to 17.9% [2][13] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows mixed performance, with national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates declining by 14% to 5% and 3.8% to 6.3% respectively [2][16] - Asphalt operating rates, however, have increased year-on-year by 7% to 2% [2][21] Group 3: Demand Trends - There is a notable recovery in housing transactions, with average daily transaction area in 30 major cities increasing by 36.2% year-on-year to 26.8% [2][29] - Port cargo throughput has significantly improved, rising by 10.4% year-on-year to 4.2%, while container throughput increased by 2.5% to 2.9% [2][32] - Human mobility has surged, with the migration index increasing by 50.5% year-on-year to 51.4% [2][34] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have generally declined, with vegetable, pork, and egg prices falling by 2.2%, 2.3%, and 0.1% respectively [2][46] - The South China industrial product price index decreased by 0.7%, with energy and chemical prices down by 0.9% and metal prices down by 0.4% [2][49]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the construction and building materials industry, with specific recommendations for companies like Honglu Steel Structure, China Jushi, Puyang Refractories, Hainan Huatie, Beixin Building Materials, China Chemical, China State Construction, Shanghai Port, and China National Materials [3]. Core Views - The cement industry shows signs of improvement in the fundamentals from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with a focus on corporate discipline and peak production implementation, as well as cement price trends [3][10]. - The glass industry experienced widespread losses in Q4 2024, but there was a significant improvement in Q1 2025, driven by the price of photovoltaic glass [3][15]. - The fiberglass sector saw a general improvement in profitability from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with all sample companies achieving profitability due to stable price increases and effective industry self-discipline [3][16]. - The consumer building materials sector continues to face declining revenues and profits, with expectations of sustained pressure on downstream demand from construction completions [3][20]. - The construction industry is experiencing a decline in revenue and profits among leading companies, indicating weak operational data [3][24]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry - The cement industry's fundamentals improved from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with a narrowing decline in quarterly cement production growth rates and a general recovery in net profits for leading companies [10]. - The national average cement price in early May 2025 was slightly lower than the same period last year, indicating a need to monitor corporate discipline and price trends [10]. Glass Industry - The glass industry faced significant losses in Q4 2024, but Q1 2025 showed marked improvement, particularly in photovoltaic glass prices [15]. - Key variables to watch include glass price trends and downstream demand changes [15]. Fiberglass Industry - Fiberglass companies reported improved profitability from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with all sample companies achieving profits due to stable price increases and effective supply-side management [16]. - The inventory levels remained stable, indicating a weak balance in supply and demand [16]. Consumer Building Materials - Leading companies in the consumer building materials sector reported widespread revenue declines, with expectations of continued pressure on downstream demand linked to construction completions [20]. - The report anticipates a narrowing decline in new construction demand over the next year [20]. Construction Industry - The construction sector is seeing a decline in revenue and profits among major companies, with many reporting weak operational data [24]. - The report highlights a significant drop in orders and revenues for central state-owned enterprises in Q1 2025 [24].