Group 1: General Information - Report industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton futures closed higher with fluctuations. For example, CF2601 opened at 13,535 yuan/ton, closed at 13,605 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. CF2605 opened at 13,545 yuan/ton, closed at 13,615 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. CF2609 opened at 13,715 yuan/ton, closed at 13,785 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [7] - The latest cotton price index for grade 328 was 14,825 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The 2025/26 Xinjiang cotton had various prices and basis quotes [7] - Pure cotton yarn trading was mediocre. High - count yarn sales were okay, while low - count yarn sales were weaker than the previous two weeks. The grey fabric market had poor production and sales, with no large orders and difficult access to export orders [8] Operation Suggestions - In the domestic market, Xinjiang seed cotton procurement is approaching the end, with short - term driving forces weakening. Zhengzhou cotton faces hedging pressure at high prices, and low - basis transactions are good. The downstream terminal demand is tepid, but there is rigid demand. From November 10, 2025, the import tariff rate of US cotton quota will drop from 26% to 11%. The overall trading center is expected to move up slowly with fluctuations [8] Group 3: Industry News - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the premium and discount of alternative delivery goods for cotton futures starting from the 2026/27 production year. For out - of - range color grades due to natural variation during the re - evaluation period, the premium and discount will refer to the "2025 November Saw - ginned Fine - staple Cotton Quality Price Difference Table" issued by the China Cotton Association [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts such as China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, and various price spreads and inventory data, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [16][17][19]

Core Insights - The article highlights the journey of Wei Gangmin, the chairman of Henan Tongzhou International Trade Group, who transformed the company from a small startup with 300,000 yuan in initial capital to a leading player in the cotton industry with annual revenue exceeding 8 billion yuan [1][2]. Entrepreneurship - In 2000, Wei Gangmin left his stable job to start the business with 300,000 yuan, officially establishing Henan Tongzhou Cotton Industry Co., Ltd. in 2002 [2]. - The company initially faced a volatile cotton market but gradually expanded its operations from small-scale trading to a comprehensive industry chain, now handling over 500,000 tons of cotton and yarn annually [2]. - Tongzhou Group has evolved into a major enterprise involved in cotton procurement, processing, textile production, import-export trade, international financing, and logistics [2]. Management Philosophy - Wei Gangmin's management philosophy is built on three pillars: integrity, cooperation, and innovation, emphasizing that a company's competitiveness stems from its adherence to core values [4]. - The company operates under the principle that quality and integrity are fundamental, which has earned it widespread recognition in the industry [5]. Industry Collaboration - The company has established a collaborative network across the entire cotton industry chain, linking domestic and international markets and fostering partnerships with various stakeholders [6]. - Tongzhou Group has built strong relationships with financial institutions to facilitate resource sharing and leverage futures and options for risk management [6]. Innovation and Adaptation - Wei Gangmin has led the company in adopting innovative business models, such as basis trading and pricing models, to adapt to market changes [7][8]. - The company has also embraced digital transformation, enhancing operational efficiency through information management and e-commerce channels [8]. Industry Contribution - Wei Gangmin actively participates in industry discussions, advocating for collaborative innovation to address challenges such as insufficient demand and high inventory levels [9]. - He believes that the cotton industry can achieve higher quality development by aligning with market reforms and focusing on customer needs [9]. Future Outlook - The company aims to deepen financial partnerships and attract top talent to strengthen its competitive edge in research, management, and investment [10]. - Wei Gangmin is optimistic about achieving an annual transaction volume of 10 billion yuan within the next 3 to 5 years, reflecting his commitment to building a world-class enterprise [10].

Report Overview - Report Date: November 6, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) fluctuated and closed higher. The current 2025/26 annual cotton prices in Xinjiang are mostly between 14,600 - 14,800 yuan per metric ton on a net weight basis. The downstream demand is tepid but has some resilience, and the inventory pressure is not significant. With the Sino - US trade in a phased easing period, the export competitiveness of downstream textile and clothing enterprises may improve. The hedging pressure above during the peak period of new cotton listing and processing still needs to be digested, and the trading center will mainly move up slowly in a fluctuating manner [7][8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and closed higher. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 14,825 yuan per metric ton, down 16 yuan per metric ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices of hand - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang and machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang were in the range of 14,600 - 14,800 yuan per metric ton on a net weight basis. The trading of pure cotton yarn was lukewarm, with high - count yarns selling better than low - count yarns. The production and sales in the grey fabric spot market were sluggish, with few large orders and difficult access to export orders [7] - **International Market**: The US Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again on November 4. The federal government's "shutdown" entered the 35th day, tying the longest record in history, and the USDA data has not been updated [8] - **Market Outlook**: The acquisition of Xinjiang seed cotton is gradually coming to an end, and the short - term driving force is weakening. Zhengzhou cotton faces hedging pressure at high prices, and some cotton merchants continue to lower the spot sales basis. The downstream terminal demand is tepid, but there is still some resilience in rigid demand, and the inventory of downstream finished products is not high. The Sino - US trade is in a phased easing period, and the export competitiveness may improve. The hedging pressure above during the peak period of new cotton listing and processing still needs to be digested, and the trading center will mainly move up slowly in a fluctuating manner [8] 3.2 Industry News - As of November 4, 2025, a total of 1,018 cotton processing enterprises across the country have processed cotton and carried out notarized inspections in accordance with the requirements of the cotton quality inspection system reform plan. The cumulative inspection volume was 9,218,299 bales, totaling 2.0819 million tons, an increase of 91,600 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 9,133,907 bales, totaling 2.063 million tons, an increase of 91,100 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in the inland was 51,656 bales, totaling 11,500 tons [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts related to cotton, including price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, spreads between different contracts, commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates [14][16][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply side will face selling and hedging pressure as new cotton is expected to be in large supply in November. Although this year's cotton production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. The demand side is entering a relatively off - season after the peak season, with average recent orders. Considering these factors, Zhengzhou cotton is likely to fluctuate, with limited upside and downside potential. Additionally, Sino - US trade negotiations and the expiration of the Sino - US tariff agreement in November may have a significant impact on the market [5]. - It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be in a sideways pattern, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger sideways movement. Existing long positions should take profits [6]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: For cotton futures, the closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 10, 5, and 5 respectively. Their trading volumes decreased by 86089, 45399, and 14 respectively, and open interest changed by - 1553, + 4162, and - 12 respectively. For棉纱 futures, the closing prices of CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts increased by 50, 40, and 145 respectively. Their trading volumes changed by + 125, + 9, and - 2 respectively, and open interest changed by + 19, + 1, and - 1 respectively [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B decreased by 21 to 14820 yuan/ton, and the price of CY IndexC32S remained unchanged at 20520 yuan/ton. Other spot prices such as Cot A, FCY IndexC33S, etc., also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Spread**: Cotton and棉纱 cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads all had different degrees of change. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was - 10 with a decrease of 5, and the CY01 - CF01 spread was 6265 with an increase of 60 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: As of November 3, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 96.1%, with different progress in southern, northern, and eastern Xinjiang. The out - of - Xinjiang cotton road transport price index on November 6, 2025, remained unchanged at 0.1827 yuan/ton·km, and it is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term. As of October 31, 1006 cotton processing enterprises across the country had conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 178.4 million tons [4]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply side has new cotton coming onto the market in large quantities, with a large increase in production this year but a possible smaller increase than expected. The demand side is in a relatively off - season, and previous negative factors have been reflected in the price. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate mainly, and Sino - US trade policies need attention [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: - **Single - sided**: It is expected that US cotton will mostly fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate slightly stronger. Existing long positions should take profits [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7]. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: Affected by the good news of Sino - US tariff reduction, Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly, but the overall trading volume did not change much. Different varieties of cotton yarn showed different trends, with the overall inventory increasing. The spot market for all - cotton grey cloth had low production and sales, and enterprises generally reported a lack of large orders [8]. Third Part: Options - **Volatility**: On the previous day, the 120 - day HV of cotton was 7.2333, with a slight decrease in volatility. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 were 7.7%, 10.5%, and 15.1% respectively [10]. - **Volume Ratio**: The previous day, the PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7324, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.5889. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today [11]. - **Option Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given reports 2. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil futures may weaken to 4000 ringgit due to potential negative impacts from MPOA production growth and a significant decline in exports in the first five days of November. After the release of the MPOB supply report, it may gradually stop falling and start to recover. In China, it may test the 8500 yuan support level. - CBOT soybean oil has limited upside and will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. In China, the supply of soybean oil is sufficient, demand is weak, and the basis quote has limited fluctuation space [1]. Sugar Industry - The expected increase in the supply surplus, combined with weakening energy prices and favorable weather in major producing areas, has led to a weak trend in raw sugar prices. Chinese sugar prices are also under pressure but are relatively resistant to decline. The spot market remains tepid, and prices will generally fluctuate at a low level [4]. Corn Industry - In the short - term, corn prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. The supply in the Northeast is sufficient, and farmers are reluctant to sell. In the long - term, imports remain low, demand is resilient, and policy regulation will support prices [5]. Cotton Industry - The cost of new cotton provides strong support for cotton prices, but there is also hedging pressure. Downstream demand is weak, but finished - product inventory pressure is not large. Short - term cotton prices may fluctuate within a range [8]. Egg Industry - In the short - term, the egg market has a supply - demand imbalance, and prices may be in a state of being difficult to rise or fall. With the slow recovery of demand, prices may gradually start to rise, and are expected to fluctuate widely at the bottom, with a reference range of 2900 - 3300 [10]. Meal Industry - The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in China is at a high level, but the cost - side support is strengthening. The downside space is limited, and the support for soybean meal is expected to increase [12]. Pig Industry - The pig market supply is relatively loose, and pig prices have weakened. However, the slowdown in the planned November slaughter volume may boost prices. The market is in a range - bound pattern, and it is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 inverse spread and operate with caution [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: On November 5, the price of Jiangsu Grade - 1 soybean oil was 8420 yuan, down 0.48% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2601 was 8108 yuan, up 0.37%. The basis was 312 yuan, down 22.44% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 8616 yuan on November 5, down 0.30%. The futures price of P2601 was 8590 yuan, down 0.23%. The basis was - 46 yuan, up 13.04% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of Jiangsu Grade - 3 rapeseed oil was 9750 yuan on November 5, down 0.20%. The futures price of OI601 was 9407 yuan, down 0.38%. The basis was 343 yuan, up 4.89% [1]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil was 188 yuan, up 10.59%; that of palm oil was - 106 yuan, down 32.50%; and that of rapeseed oil was 345 yuan, down 4.96% [1]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: On November 5, the price of sugar 2601 was 5441 yuan/ton, down 0.73%; sugar 2605 was 5393 yuan/ton, down 0.70%; ICE raw sugar was 14.12 cents/pound, down 0.63% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 5700 yuan, down 0.18%; in Kunming was 5660 yuan, down 0.35%. The Nanning basis was 307 yuan, up 10.04%; the Kunming basis was 267 yuan, up 7.23% [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03%; sales were 1048.00 million tons, up 9.17%. The national industrial inventory was 68.21 million tons, down 41.20% [4]. Corn Industry - **Corn**: On November 5, the price of corn 2601 was 2134 yuan, down 0.05%. The basis was 16 yuan, up 6.67%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 101 yuan, down 4.12% [5]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 was 2451 yuan, up 0.29%. The basis was 59 yuan, down 10.61%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 104 yuan, unchanged [5]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: On November 5, the price of cotton 2605 was 13620 yuan/ton, up 0.48%; cotton 2601 was 13612 yuan/ton, up 0.59%. The ICE US cotton was 65.07 cents/pound, down 0.12% [8]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14627 yuan, down 0.09%; the CC Index of 3128B was 14825 yuan, down 0.11% [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 172.02 million tons, up 68.4%; the industrial inventory was 80.93 million tons, down 4.3%. The import volume was 10.00 million tons, up 42.9% [8]. Egg Industry - **Futures Market**: On November 5, the price of the egg 12 - contract was 3217 yuan/500KG, up 2.32%; the 01 - contract was 3385 yuan/500KG, up 1.44% [10]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price was 2.88 yuan/jin, up 0.22%. The basis was - 333 yuan/500KG, down 25.10% [10]. - **Related Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks was 2.80 yuan/feather, up 5.66%; the price of culled chickens was 4.11 yuan/jin, down 4.20% [10]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: On November 5, the price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 3030 yuan, down 0.66%. The futures price of M2601 was 3073 yuan, up 1.92%. The basis was - 43 yuan, down 222.86% [12]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2550 yuan, up 0.79%. The futures price of RM2601 was 2537 yuan, up 1.60%. The basis was 13 yuan, down 60.61% [12]. - **Soybeans**: The price of Harbin soybeans was 3920 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the soybean - 1 main contract was 4123 yuan, up 1.68%. The basis was - 203 yuan, down 50.37% [12]. Pig Industry - **Futures Market**: On November 5, the price of the pig 2605 contract was 12040 yuan/ton, up 1.52%; the 2601 contract was 11945 yuan/ton, up 2.23%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 95 yuan, up 45.71% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Henan was 11800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; in Shandong was 12100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Sichuan was 11400 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [15]. - **Related Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 159258, up 0.79%. The weekly white - strip price was 18.70 yuan/kg, up 1.25% [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive performance of the US non-manufacturing PMI in October, which stood at 52.4, exceeding expectations and previous values, leading to a collective rise in major US stock indices [1] - The US stock market saw the Nasdaq increase by 0.65%, the Dow Jones by 0.48%, and the S&P 500 by 0.37%, indicating a favorable market response to the PMI data [1] - Domestic futures markets showed mixed results, with certain commodities like coking coal and various agricultural products experiencing gains, while others like propylene and asphalt saw declines [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the performance of major stock indices, noting a recovery after a previous decline, with the electric equipment sector leading gains and the computer sector lagging [2] - The financing balance decreased by 3.32 billion yuan to 24.73687 trillion yuan, indicating a potential shift in market liquidity [2] - The article emphasizes the long-term focus on technology self-reliance as part of the 14th Five-Year Plan, suggesting that the technology sector will be a key investment direction [2] Group 3 - The article reports on the shipping market, specifically the European container shipping index, which rose by 3.82% to surpass 1900 points, reflecting positive macroeconomic sentiment [3] - The average price for large containers in early November stabilized around 2200 USD, with expectations for price adjustments based on seasonal demand [3] - The article notes that the glass and soda ash markets are in a phase of inventory digestion, with cautious market sentiment prevailing [3][19] Group 4 - The article highlights the significant growth in China's new energy storage capacity, which has exceeded 100 million kilowatts, representing a more than 30-fold increase compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [8] - The article mentions that this capacity now accounts for over 40% of the global total, positioning China as a leader in this sector [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply side has a large number of new cotton flowers on the market, with a significant increase in production in the new year but the increase may be less than expected; the demand side has average recent orders, and previous negative factors have been reflected in the market. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to mainly fluctuate, with relatively limited upward and downward space. Sino-US trade policies may have a significant impact on the market [5] - It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be in a range-bound pattern, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger range-bound trend. Previous long positions should take profits [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts increased by 80, 65, and 65 respectively; the closing price of CY01 increased by 25, CY05 decreased by 19845, and CY09 increased by 19930. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also had corresponding changes [2] - **Spot Market**: CCIndex3128B decreased by 34 yuan/ton, Cot A increased to 77.10 cents/pound, and prices of other varieties also had different changes [2] - **Spread**: Cotton and yarn inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads all had corresponding changes [2] Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of November 3, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 96.1%, with different progress in different regions [4] - On November 5, 2025, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang cotton increased by 1.33% compared with the previous period, and it is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [4] - As of November 4, 2025, 1018 cotton processing enterprises had processed and inspected 9,218,299 bales of cotton, weighing 2.0819 million tons [4] Trading Logic - In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling and hedging pressure. Although this year's production is abundant, the expected increase may be less than previous expectations. The market has entered a relatively off - season after the peak season. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to mainly fluctuate [5] Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: It is expected that US cotton will fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate slightly stronger. Take profits on previous long positions [6] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [7] - **Options**: Wait and see [8] Cotton Yarn Industry News - Although the macro - atmosphere improved last week, the actual downstream demand did not improve significantly. The actual transaction price of pure cotton yarn changed little, and the market was mainly small, urgent, and rigid - demand orders. The follow - up needs to pay attention to downstream demand and Zhengzhou cotton trends [9] - The spot market of all - cotton grey cloth remained weak, and the weaving mills' raw material procurement was mainly based on immediate needs. Downstream customers mainly placed rigid - demand orders and were cautious about the weaving mills' sales information [9] Third Part: Options - The 120 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly compared with the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 7.5%, CF601 - P - 13000 was 10.8%, and CF601 - P - 12400 was 14.7% [11] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased, and the trading volume of both call and put options decreased [12] - Option strategy: Wait and see [8][13] Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices, cotton basis for different months, spread between cotton yarn and cotton, and spread between different cotton contracts [15][18][22][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium - long term with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended for selling call options [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is advised to close long positions at high levels or engage in range short - term trading; Aluminum is recommended to buy on dips; Nickel suggests waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are for range trading [1][12][13] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to move sideways. Soda ash 01 contract follows a short - selling mindset [1][23][24][34] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to move sideways; PTA is in low - level oscillation; Apples and jujubes are in weak oscillation [1][37][38] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs face pressure in rebounds; Corn is in a bottom - building oscillation; Soybean meal rebounds from a low level; Oils are in weak oscillation [1][41][48][49] 2. Core Views - The market is in a vacuum period of performance, events, and policies after the Sino - US trade negotiation, third - quarter reports, and the Fourth Plenary Session, so it will oscillate to wait for new changes at the end of the year [6] - The main trading line of Treasury bonds is not over, but the market is observing the scale and scope of the central bank's Treasury bond trading, so it is expected to move sideways [6] - The coal market has tight supply and demand, and prices are rising steadily. The supply of coking coal may be affected by the resumption of production in coal mines, and the price of rebar is expected to have limited downside space due to low valuation [8] - The supply of glass is high, demand is weak, and the overall supply - demand pattern is poor, so it is recommended to sell call options [10] - The short - term supply - demand situation of copper has limited support for prices, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. The supply of aluminum may face adjustments, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels [12][14] - The supply of nickel may be more abundant in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies. The supply of tin is expected to improve, and it is recommended for range trading [18][20] - Precious metals are supported by interest - rate cut expectations and safe - haven needs, but are in a short - term adjustment state, and are recommended for range trading [20][22] - The supply - demand of PVC is still weak, and it is expected to oscillate. The supply of caustic soda is affected by alumina, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [23][25] - The cost of benzene ethylene is under pressure, and the overall chemical fundamentals are weak, so it is expected to oscillate. The cost support of rubber is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate [26][28] - The supply of urea decreases, demand increases, and the price is expected to rise slightly. The supply of methanol is tight in some areas, and the port inventory pressure is high, so it is expected to oscillate [29][31] - The supply of polyolefins has new production capacity, and demand is mainly for rigid needs, so PE is expected to oscillate, and PP is expected to oscillate weakly [33] - The supply of soda ash is excessive, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling mindset for the 01 contract [36] - The supply - demand of cotton and cotton yarn is expected to be stable, and it is expected to oscillate. The supply of PTA is in a state of inventory accumulation, and it is in low - level oscillation [37][38] - The quality of apples has declined, and consumption is weak, so the price is expected to decline. The price of jujubes is expected to decline [38][40] - The supply of pigs is large in the first half of next year, and prices face pressure. The supply of eggs is still large in the medium - long term, and prices face pressure [41][44] - The supply of corn is sufficient in the short term, and demand is weak, so it is in a bottom - building oscillation. The price of soybean meal is supported by cost and is expected to rebound [47][48] - Oils are under pressure in the short term but have support factors, and are expected to oscillate widely [54] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - Finance - **Index Futures**: A - shares and Hong Kong stocks are generally down. The market lacks catalysts and is expected to oscillate. It is bullish in the medium - long term and recommended to buy on dips [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures have mixed performance. The market is observing the central bank's operations, and it is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation and expect sideways movement [6] 3.2 Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking Coal**: The coal market has tight supply and demand, and prices are rising. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of production in coal mines [8] - **Rebar**: The price has fallen, but the low valuation limits the downside space. It is recommended to buy on dips for the RB2601 contract and focus on the range of 3000 - 3200 [8] - **Glass**: The supply is high, demand is weak, and the overall supply - demand pattern is poor. It is recommended to sell the 01 contract out - of - the - money call options and hold them until expiration [10] 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price has reached a new high and then declined. The short - term supply - demand has limited support, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. The recommended operating range of the main Shanghai copper contract is 85000 - 89000 [12][13] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is under pressure, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum may face adjustments. It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels [14] - **Nickel**: The supply may be more abundant in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [18] - **Tin**: The supply is expected to improve, and it is recommended for range trading, with the reference range of the Shanghai tin 12 contract being 275,000 - 295,000 yuan/ton [20] - **Silver and Gold**: They are supported by interest - rate cut expectations and safe - haven needs, are in a short - term adjustment state, and are recommended for range trading. The reference range of the Shanghai silver 12 contract is 10700 - 11600, and that of the Shanghai gold 12 contract is 890 - 940 [20][22] 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate. The 01 contract is temporarily concerned about the range of 4600 - 4800 [23] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is affected by alumina, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. The 01 contract is temporarily concerned about the pressure at 2400 [24] - **Benzene Ethylene**: The cost is under pressure, and the overall chemical fundamentals are weak. It is expected to oscillate, and the range of 6300 - 6700 is concerned [26] - **Rubber**: The cost support is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate. The support at 15000 is concerned [28] - **Urea**: The supply decreases, demand increases, and the price is expected to rise slightly. The 01 contract range is 1600 - 1700 [29][30] - **Methanol**: The supply is tight in some areas, and the port inventory pressure is high. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract range is 2230 - 2330 [31][32] - **Polyolefins**: The supply has new production capacity, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. PE is expected to oscillate, paying attention to the support at 6900, and PP is expected to oscillate weakly, paying attention to the support at 6600 [33] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is excessive, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling mindset for the 01 contract [36] 3.5 Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The supply - demand is expected to be stable, and it is expected to oscillate [37] - **PTA**: The price is in low - level oscillation, and the supply is in a state of inventory accumulation. The concerned range is 4400 - 4700 [38] - **Apples and Jujubes**: The quality of apples has declined, consumption is weak, and the price is expected to decline. The price of jujubes is also expected to decline [38][40] 3.6 Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The 01 contract is under pressure due to postponed supply, and it is recommended to take profit on short positions gradually. The 03 and 05 contracts have large supply and weak demand in the first half of next year, and it is recommended to hold short positions. The 07 and 09 contracts should be carefully bottom - fishing [41] - **Eggs**: The 12 contract has a large premium over the spot, and it is recommended to short on rallies lightly. The 01 contract oscillates in the range of 3250 - 3400 [43][44] - **Corn**: The short - term supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. It is in a bottom - building oscillation, and the 01 contract oscillates in the range of 2050 - 2170. It is recommended to pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread [45][46][47] - **Soybean Meal**: It rebounds from a low level. The M2601 contract can take profit on a small scale at high levels and hold after a pullback. Spot enterprises can fix the basis from November to January at low points [48][49] - **Oils**: They are in a high - level adjustment, with palm oil being weak and soybean oil being strong. The 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil should pay attention to the support levels of 7900 - 8000, 8450 - 8500, and 9250 - 9350 respectively, and not chase short. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of the narrowing spread of rapeseed - soybean 01 and the widening spread of soybean - palm 01 [49][54]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: November 5, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton prices faced downward pressure and declined. The latest price index for Grade 328 cotton was 14,841 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot prices for 2025/26 southern Xinjiang hand - picked cotton and northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton were mostly between 14,600 - 14,800 yuan/ton (public standard), with some lower prices around 14,500 - 14,600 yuan/ton. The basis for different qualities of cotton varied [7]. - The trading of pure cotton yarn was lackluster. High - count yarn sales were okay, while low - count yarn sales were worse than the previous two weeks. The fabric market had low production and sales, with no large orders and difficulties in obtaining export orders [7]. Operational Suggestions - In the domestic market, the purchase of Xinjiang seed cotton was mostly ending. The cost of new cotton was relatively high, providing support for Zhengzhou cotton prices, but there was also hedging pressure at high prices. The downstream demand was weak but had some resilience, and the inventory of finished products was not high. With the Sino - US trade in a period of easing, the export competitiveness of textile and clothing enterprises might improve. The trading center of cotton prices was expected to slowly move up while the hedging pressure from the peak season of new cotton listing and processing needed to be digested [8]. Group 3: Industry News - As of October 30, 2025, the national new cotton picking progress was 87.1%, 1.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 5.9 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years. The national delivery rate was 90.4%, 3.5 percentage points higher than last year and 15.2 percentage points higher than the four - year average. The national processing rate was 39.9%, 0.5 percentage points higher than last year but 1.5 percentage points lower than the four - year average. The national sales rate was 14.2%, 9.3 percentage points higher than last year and 11.0 percentage points higher than the four - year average [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presented multiple data charts, including those related to China's cotton price index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, spreads between different cotton futures contracts, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, warehouse receipt totals, and exchange rates such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee [17][18][29]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on cotton and cotton yarn in the agricultural products industry, dated November 4, 2024 [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,535, down 65; CF05 at 13,555, down 60; CF09 at 13,725, down 55; CY01 at 19,795, down 125; CY05 at 19,845, down 75; CY09 at 20,085, unchanged [2] - Trading volume and open interest of each contract had different changes, e.g., CF01 trading volume decreased by 3,913 and open interest decreased by 6,089 [2] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was 14,841 yuan/ton, down 19; Cot A was 76.85 cents/pound; FC Index:M: arrival price was 75.69, up 0.09; etc [2] Price Spreads - Cotton and cotton yarn had various spreads, such as cotton 1 - 5 month spread at -20, down 5; 5 - 9 month spread at -170, down 5; etc [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - On November 4, 2025, the Xinjiang cotton road transport price index was 0.1803 yuan/ton·km, unchanged from the previous day, with expected short - term upward fluctuations [4] - This year's cotton yield per mu in Shaya County was generally 380 - 450 kg/mu, a decrease of 30 - 70 kg/mu compared to last year, possibly due to improper fertilization and low September temperatures [4] - As of October 28, the drought index in the main US cotton - producing areas decreased significantly, and the quality indicators of US cotton declined [4] Trading Logic - In November, with new cotton on the market, there may be selling and hedging pressure. Supply is expected to increase but the increase may be less than previously thought. Demand enters the off - season. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate with limited upside and downside. Sino - US trade policies may have a large impact [5] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger. Close previous long positions [6] - Arbitrage: Hold off [7] - Options: Hold off [8] Cotton Yarn Industry News - Although market confidence improved last week, downstream demand did not improve significantly. Cotton has large hedging pressure. Most cotton yarn prices were stable, with only a few varieties selling well. Follow downstream demand and Zhengzhou cotton trends [9] - The all - cotton grey fabric market is weak, and fabric mills purchase raw materials as needed. Downstream customers place mainly rigid orders and are cautious [9] Group 4: Options Option Data - On November 3, 2025, for example, CF601C13400.CZC closed at 260, down 10%; CF601P13000.CZC closed at 25, down 34.2% [11] Volatility - The 120 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly. Implied volatilities of different options varied, e.g., 7.5% for CF601 - C - 13400 [11] Option Strategies - Hold off on options [13] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes charts of 1% tariff cotton price spreads, cotton basis for different months, cotton yarn - cotton spreads, and cotton inter - monthly spreads [15][18][22][23]