Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Macroeconomics - Domestically, although the economic growth rate is showing a marginal slowdown, there is no need for excessive anxiety. A package of economic - stabilizing policies are gradually taking effect, and fiscal expenditure is accelerating. The trend of future economic data remains uncertain and requires continuous tracking of high - frequency data [1]. - Overseas, the possibility of a September interest rate cut remains uncertain. Attention should be focused on changes in US economic data and the policy signals released by Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [2]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: The stock market is in a stage of long - short game. Yesterday, the stock market as a whole pulled back, and the pressure line of the index was not successfully broken. If the trading volume narrows in the future, the decline of small - cap indexes may also widen. Short - term attention should be paid to market sentiment and trading volume adjustment near key points [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market showed a weak rebound on Tuesday. If the stock market continues to fluctuate, it will be beneficial for the bond market to stabilize. However, if the stock market rises after consolidation, it will suppress the bond market. It remains to be seen whether the bond market can bottom out [3]. - **Container Shipping**: The freight index (European Line) futures prices showed a trend of first decline and then rebound. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate, and some contracts may rebound at low levels [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Medium - to long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak. The strategy is to buy on dips [7][9]. - **Copper**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to consider long - alloy and short - aluminum arbitrage when the price difference widens [11][13]. - **Zinc**: Prices are in a weak state, and short - term trading is mainly range - bound. Consider selling the outer market and buying the inner market for arbitrage [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The fundamentals of steel are weakening, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation accelerating. Steel prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is trading on weak demand rather than production restrictions. Iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal - coke market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, attention should be paid to the inventory changes of finished steel products [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline. It is recommended to wait and see [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating. There is an increased risk of a medium - term downward break, and short - term geopolitical developments need to be tracked [25][26]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the current situation is mainly a game in the near - term contracts [26][28]. - **PTA - PX**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol**: Wait for the opportunity to go long. It is advisable to consider laying out long positions in the far - month contracts after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP**: Prices are in a weak range - bound state. The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE**: Prices are in a range - bound state in the short term, and the future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Prices are in a range - bound state. For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices remain weak, and the short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The crack spread is strengthening, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt**: The price center has shifted downward. In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500. Consider widening the price difference between deep - colored and light - colored rubber on dips [43][45]. - **Urea**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt [47][48]. - **Glass**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomics - **Domestic**: The cumulative growth rate of the national general public budget from January to July turned positive for the first time, and stamp duty increased by 20.7%. Fiscal expenditure is accelerating, and economic - stabilizing policies are taking effect [1]. - **Overseas**: The possibility of a September interest rate cut in the US remains uncertain. The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting is an important window to observe policy trends [2]. Financial Futures Stock Index - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the stock index pulled back with reduced trading volume, and small - cap indexes had relatively smaller decline rates. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 175.794 billion yuan [3]. - **Important Information**: From September 1, new conditions for personal pension withdrawals will be added [3]. - **Core Logic**: The index pressure line was not broken, and the large - cap index declined more. If trading volume narrows, small - cap indexes may also decline more [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, bond futures fluctuated at a low level and finally closed up across the board, showing a weak rebound [3]. - **Core Logic**: The central bank made large - scale injections, and the bond market got a breather due to the stock market's consolidation. Whether the bond market can bottom out remains to be seen [3]. Container Shipping - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the container shipping index (European Line) futures prices first declined slightly and then rebounded [4][6]. - **Important Information**: Hamas made concessions on the cease - fire plan, and some shipping companies adjusted their European Line quotes [4][5]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical risks decreased, but the reduction in the decline of MSK's European Line spot - cabin quotes was positive for prices. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market was in a weak state. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3,358.9 per ounce, down 0.57%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $37.33 per ounce, down 1.84% [7]. - **Core Logic**: Market focus is on the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. Long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak [7][9]. - **Copper** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper index was in a range - bound state on Tuesday, with low trading volume and stable decline in open interest [10]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term prices are likely to continue to fluctuate, and the previous support level can be raised [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,545 yuan per ton, down 0.19% [10]. - **Core Logic**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate [11][13]. - **Zinc** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,205 yuan per ton, down 0.69% [13]. - **Core Logic**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, demand is weak, and there is a risk of short - term range - bound trading [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 120,330 yuan per ton, down 0.37%; the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,885 yuan per ton, down 1.07% [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin index strengthened in the afternoon on Tuesday, closing at 26.8 yuan per ton [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, up 0.23% [16]. - **Core Logic**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 16,825 yuan per ton, up 0.30% [17]. - **Core Logic**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a weak downward trend [20]. - **Important Information**: Steel mills adjusted scrap purchase prices, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [20]. - **Core Logic**: Supply increases, demand decreases, inventory accumulates, and prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Review**: Iron ore prices are in a weak state, with five consecutive days of decline [21]. - **Important Information**: There are vehicle restrictions and an increase in blast furnace maintenance in Hebei [21]. - **Core Logic**: The market is trading on weak demand, and iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound and declining state [21]. - **Important Information**: There are rainfall and high - temperature weather, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [22]. - **Core Logic**: The market may fluctuate widely with sentiment, and attention should be paid to finished steel inventory changes [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese** - **Market Review**: Supply is increasing, and prices may decline [23]. - **Core Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline due to the game between strong expectations and weak reality [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Review**: Overnight, the crude oil futures prices declined slightly [25]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in the geopolitical situation and changes in oil - buying sources in India [25]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating [25][26]. - **LPG** - **Market Review**: LPG futures prices declined slightly [26]. - **Important Information**: Some refineries had maintenance and restart operations [27]. - **Core Logic**: Fundamentals have not changed significantly, and it is a near - term contract game [26][28]. - **PTA - PX** - **Market Review**: PX - PTA prices are in a range - bound state [29]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol** - **Market Review**: The methanol 09 contract declined [32]. - **Core Logic**: Wait for the opportunity to go long after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP** - **Market Review**: PP prices are in a weak range - bound state [34]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE** - **Market Review**: PE prices are in a range - bound state [36]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound state [37][38]. - **Core Logic**: For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: Fuel oil prices remain weak [39]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: The crack spread is strengthening [40]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: Asphalt prices have declined [42]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber** - **Market Review**: Rubber prices declined [43]. - **Core Logic**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500 [43][45]. - **Urea** - **Market Review**: Urea prices rose [46]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Soda Ash** - **Market Review**: The soda ash 2601 contract declined [47]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [47][48]. - **Glass** - **Market Review**: The glass 2601 contract declined [49]. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda** - **Market Review**: The caustic soda 2601 contract declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp** - **Market Review**: The main contract of pulp declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs** - **Market Review**: The main contract of logs declined [51]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market for crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia-related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand weakening in mid-August will limit its upside, with a short-term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI. It is recommended to buy on dips and take profits, and to position for Russian geopolitical expectations and hurricane supply disruptions in September on significant price drops [3]. - For methanol, coal prices are rising, increasing costs, but coal-to-methanol profits are still high year-on-year. Domestic and overseas production are increasing, leading to high supply pressure. Demand remains weak currently but is expected to improve in the peak season. It is advisable to wait and see [5]. - Regarding urea, the news of lifting export restrictions boosted market sentiment. Domestic production is increasing, with low corporate profits expected to bottom out. Supply is ample, while demand is average. The price is in a narrow range, and it is recommended to look for long opportunities on dips [7]. - For rubber, it is expected to be range-bound and weak. It is advisable to wait and see, and to partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [11]. - PVC has high supply, weak demand, and high valuations. The fundamentals are poor, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - For benzene ethylene, the macro sentiment is positive, with cost support. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may follow the cost trend upward [13][16]. - Polyethylene prices are expected to be determined by the cost and supply sides in the short term, with high production capacity planned for August. It is recommended to hold short positions [18]. - Polypropylene prices are expected to follow the crude oil trend and be slightly stronger in July, with weak supply and demand in the seasonal off - season [19]. - PX is expected to continue de - stocking, with support at the lower end of the valuation but limited upside in the short term. It is advisable to look for long opportunities on dips following crude oil in the peak season [22]. - PTA is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, with limited processing margins. It is advisable to look for long opportunities on dips following PX after the peak - season demand improves [23]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to enter an inventory accumulation cycle. The fundamentals are expected to weaken, and there is downward pressure on the short - term valuation [24]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI crude futures fell $0.77, or 1.22%, to $62.51/barrel; Brent crude futures fell $0.51, or 0.77%, to $65.95/barrel; INE crude futures fell 5.70 yuan, or 1.18%, to 476.9 yuan [2]. - **Inventory Data**: In the Fujeirah port, gasoline inventories increased by 0.39 million barrels to 8.06 million barrels, a 5.14% increase; diesel inventories increased by 0.03 million barrels to 2.28 million barrels, a 1.24% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.28 million barrels to 7.36 million barrels, a 3.64% decrease; total refined oil inventories increased by 0.14 million barrels to 17.69 million barrels, a 0.82% increase [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 19, the 01 contract fell 5 yuan/ton to 2391 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 22 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 111 [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Coal prices are rising, increasing costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still high year - on - year. Domestic production is bottoming out and rising, and overseas production is at a high level, leading to high supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak. The current situation is weak, but demand is expected to improve in the peak season [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 19, the 01 contract rose 63 yuan/ton to 1817 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 97 [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The news of lifting export restrictions boosted market sentiment. Domestic production is increasing, with low corporate profits expected to bottom out. Supply is ample, while domestic agricultural demand is ending, and overall demand is average [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU oscillated downward [9]. - **Fundamentals**: As of August 14, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from the previous week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year, with normal domestic and export orders. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.25%, down 2.28 percentage points from the previous week and 6.41 percentage points from the same period last year, with weak export orders. As of August 10, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, down 1.1 tons, or 0.85%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.7 tons, down 0.8%, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 48 tons, down 0.8%. RU inventory increased by 1%. As of August 17, the inventory in Qingdao was 48.54 (- 0.18) tons [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to be range - bound and weak. It is advisable to wait and see, and to partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 53 yuan to 5001 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4750 (- 50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 251 (+ 3) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 145 (- 11) yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side is stable, the overall operating rate is 80.3%, up 0.9%. The downstream operating rate is 42.8%, down 0.1%. Factory inventory is 32.7 (- 1) tons, and social inventory is 81.2 (+ 3.5) tons. The company's comprehensive profit is at a high level, with high production and low downstream demand. The export is under pressure from India's anti - dumping policy, and the valuation support is weakening [11]. Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price rose, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The macro sentiment is positive, with cost support. The BZN spread is at a low level and has room for upward repair. The supply side is increasing production, and the port inventory is decreasing significantly. The demand side is in the off - season but is showing an upward trend [15][16]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The market expects positive policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, with cost support. The spot price fell, and the valuation has limited downward space. Trader inventories are high, and demand is weak in the off - season. There is a high production capacity plan in August, and the price will be determined by the cost and supply sides in the short term [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Shandong refinery profits are rebounding, and the operating rate is expected to rise. Demand is seasonally weak. There is a 45 - ton production capacity plan in August. The price is expected to follow the crude oil trend and be slightly stronger in July [19]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 14 yuan to 6774 yuan, PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 835 dollars, the basis was 94 (+ 6) yuan, and the 11 - 1 spread was 48 (+ 12) yuan [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The load in China is 84.3%, up 2.3%, and in Asia is 74.1%, up 0.5%. Some devices are restarting or reducing production. PTA load is 76.4%, up 1.7%. PX is expected to continue de - stocking, with support at the lower end of the valuation but limited upside in the short term [21][22]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract fell 12 yuan to 4734 yuan, the East China spot price rose 20 yuan to 4690 yuan, the basis was - 8 (+ 4) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 54 (- 4) yuan [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The load is 76.4%, up 1.7%. Some devices are restarting or shutting down. The downstream load is 89.4%, up 0.6%. Social inventory is 225 tons, down 2.3 tons. Supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and processing margins are limited. It is advisable to look for long opportunities on dips following PX after the peak - season demand improves [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 38 yuan to 4384 yuan, the East China spot price rose 17 yuan to 4458 yuan, the basis was 93 (+ 1) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 40 (+ 6) yuan [24]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side load is 66.4%, down 2%, with some devices restarting or reducing production. The downstream load is 89.4%, up 0.6%. The import forecast is 5.4 tons, and the port inventory is 54.7 tons, down 0.6 tons. The cost side is stable, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken, with downward pressure on the short - term valuation [24].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Urea - The short - term rebound of the urea futures is mainly driven by the export expectation on the demand side, with the co - existence of the lag in export policy implementation and the time constraint of Indian tenders. The secondary driver is the weak support from the increase in compound fertilizer production to industrial demand. However, the overall high supply situation remains unchanged. In the future, it is necessary to track the winning bids of Indian tenders and August export volume. If the export fails to meet expectations, the domestic supply pressure will drag down the futures price. It is recommended to maintain a band - trading strategy [33]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fluctuated. The main trading logic is the game between geopolitical risks and supply - side uncertainties. Geopolitical factors support oil prices in the short term, while the supply increase from OPEC+ suppresses the upside potential. The uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut path affects market risk appetite. Geopolitical factors are the core variables for short - term price fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading, expand the spreads between October - November/December contracts, and capture opportunities in volatility contraction in the options market [35]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply is expected to increase as some domestic PX plants restart. In August, PTA plants had many unplanned shutdowns due to low processing margins, so the PX supply - demand situation is expected to weaken marginally. However, with the approaching traditional peak season and new PTA plant commissioning expectations, the medium - term supply - demand pressure is not significant. The price is expected to be supported at low levels, but the rebound space is limited. For other products in the polyester industry chain, their prices and processing margins are affected by raw material prices, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal factors [40]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the demand has improved recently, but the supply is expected to increase in the future, and the number of warehouse receipts in the main production areas is expected to rise in August, which will limit the rebound. For PVC, the supply pressure is large due to the release of new capacity, while the downstream demand remains weak, so it is recommended to take a bearish view [45]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - For pure benzene, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve in the third quarter, and the port inventory is expected to decline in August, providing some support for the price. However, the overall supply is still sufficient, and the price increase is limited. For styrene, the supply is high in the short term, but the supply - demand situation is expected to improve as some plants plan to shut down for maintenance and export expectations increase. The price is expected to be supported at low levels, but the rebound is restricted by high inventory and limited oil - price support [48]. Polyolefins - For LLDPE and PP, on the supply side, PP maintenance is decreasing, PE maintenance is increasing in mid - to - late August, imports are low, and new capacity is expected to be put into operation in August - September. On the demand side, the downstream operating rates are low, but there is potential for restocking as the peak season approaches. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. It is recommended to close short positions around 7000 for the previous short - selling strategy on LLDPE and continue to hold the LP01 spread [53]. Methanol - The methanol market is facing significant supply pressure, with high production and imports in August - September, and the port inventory is at a high level compared to the same period. The traditional demand is weak, and the low profit of downstream industries restricts the operating rate. The MTO profit has recovered, and attention should be paid to the start - up of a certain MTO plant at the port from late August to early September. The 09 contract is expected to see strong inventory accumulation, while the 01 contract is supported by the seasonal peak season and Iranian gas - rationing expectations [56]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea - **Futures Prices**: On August 18, the 01 contract closed at 1754 yuan/ton (+0.98% compared to August 15), the 05 contract at 1790 yuan/ton (+0.39%), the 09 contract at 1731 yuan/ton (+0.58%), and the main contract at 2396 yuan/ton (-0.66%) [28]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 36 yuan/ton on August 18 (+21.74% compared to August 15), the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was 59 yuan/ton (-4.84%), the spread between the 09 and 01 contracts was - 23 yuan/ton (-43.75%), and the spread between the UR and MA main contracts was 665 yuan/ton (+3.76%) [29]. - **Positions**: On August 18, the long - position of the top 20 was 101,968 (-0.89% compared to August 15), the short - position of the top 20 was 123,878 (+3.00%), the long - to - short ratio was 0.82 (-3.77%), the unilateral trading volume was 167,760 (+53.80%), and the number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts was 3,573 (unchanged) [30]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of small - sized anthracite in Jincheng and power coal at the pithead in Ejin Horo Banner remained unchanged. The price of power coal at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 0.29%, and the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong decreased by 2.75%. The estimated production costs of fixed - bed and water - coal - slurry processes remained unchanged [31]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of small - sized urea in Shandong, Henan, and Guangdong increased by 1.76%, 1.16%, and 0.53% respectively, while the prices in other regions remained unchanged. The FOB prices in China and the US Gulf also remained unchanged [32]. - **Regional Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between Shandong - Henan, Guangdong - Henan, and Guangdong - Shanxi changed by - 50%, - 7%, and 4% respectively. The basis in Shandong, Henan, and Guangdong changed by 35.14%, 17.65%, and - 5.26% respectively, while the basis in Shanxi decreased by 13.39% [33]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of melamine in Shandong and 45% S/CL compound fertilizers in Henan remained unchanged, and the compound - fertilizer to urea ratio decreased by 1.15% [33]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily domestic urea production decreased by 0.78%, the coal - based urea production decreased by 0.99%, and the small - sized urea production decreased by 0.95%. The weekly domestic urea production increased by 1.51%, the weekly maintenance loss decreased by 4.48%, the factory inventory increased by 7.86%, and the port inventory decreased by 3.93%. The number of production - enterprise order days decreased by 3.68% [33]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 19, Brent crude was at $66.60/barrel (+1.14% compared to August 18), WTI at $63.35/barrel (-0.11%), and SC at 485.20 yuan/barrel (-0.76%). The spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 also changed to varying degrees [35]. - **Refined - Product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB was at 209.95 cents/gallon (+0.04%), NYM ULSD at 224.62 cents/gallon (+0.26%), and ICE Gasoil at $645.50/ton (-1.68%). The spreads of RBOB M1 - M3, ULSD M1 - M3, and Gasoil M1 - M3 also changed [35]. - **Refined - Product Cracking Spreads**: The cracking spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US, Europe, and Singapore changed on August 19 compared to August 18 [35]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices of POY, FDY, DTY, polyester chips, polyester bottle - chips, and other products changed slightly on August 18 compared to August 15. The cash flows of POY, FDY, and DTY also changed [40]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The CFR China PX price was $828/ton on August 18 (+0.6% compared to August 15), and the PX - related spreads also changed [40]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The PTA East - China spot price was 4670 yuan/ton on August 18 (+0.2% compared to August 15), and the PTA - related spreads also changed [40]. - **MEG Inventory and Arrival Expectations**: The MEG port inventory was 547,000 tons on August 18 (-1.1% compared to August 11), and the expected arrival volume was 54,000 tons (-8.7% compared to the previous period) [40]. - **Industry Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain, such as PX, PTA, MEG, and downstream polyester products, changed to varying degrees from August 8 to August 15 [40]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures**: On August 18, the prices of Shandong 32% and 50% caustic soda increased by 2.4% and 0.8% respectively. The prices of East - China calcium - carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC decreased by 1.0% and remained unchanged respectively. The SH2509 contract increased by 1.1%, and the SH2601 contract decreased by 0.1%. The SH basis increased by 146.8% [45]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The FOB East - China port price of caustic soda remained unchanged, and the export profit decreased by 42.3% [45]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The CFR Southeast - Asia and CFR India prices of PVC remained unchanged, and the export profit increased by 48.9% [45]. - **Supply - Side Indicators**: The caustic soda industry operating rate decreased by 2.0%, the PVC total operating rate increased by 1.4%. The profit of externally - sourced calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 3.7%, and the Northwest integrated profit decreased by 5.1% [45]. - **Demand - Side Indicators**: The operating rates of caustic - soda downstream industries such as alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing increased. The operating rates of PVC downstream products such as pipes and profiles also changed [45]. - **Inventory Indicators**: The East - China caustic - soda factory inventory increased by 6.6%, the Shandong caustic - soda inventory increased by 1.6%, the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 3.1%, and the PVC total social inventory increased by 2.5% [45]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On August 18, the Brent crude (October) was $66.60/barrel (+1.1% compared to August 15), the WTI crude (September) was $63.42/barrel (+1.0%), and the CFR Japan naphtha price was $571/ton (-0.3%). The pure - benzene - related prices and spreads also changed [48]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The East - China styrene spot price was 7290 yuan/ton on August 18 (-0.1% compared to August 15), and the styrene - related spreads also changed [48]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of phenol, caprolactam, aniline, EPS, PS, and ABS changed on August 18 compared to August 15 [48]. - **Inventory**: The Jiangsu port inventory of pure benzene decreased by 1.4%, and the Jiangsu port inventory of styrene increased by 8.5% [48]. - **Industry Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the pure - benzene and styrene industry chain, such as Asian pure - benzene, domestic hydro - benzene, and downstream products, changed from August 8 to August 15 [48]. Polyolefins - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On August 18, the L2601 contract closed at 7334 yuan/ton (-0.23% compared to August 15), the L2509 contract at 7292 yuan/ton (-0.19%), the PP2601 contract at 7048 yuan/ton (-0.51%), and the PP2509 contract at 7026 yuan/ton (-0.45%). The spreads of L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 also changed [53]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The East - China PP raffia spot price was 6960 yuan/ton on August 18 (-0.29% compared to August 15), and the North - China LDPE film - grade spot price was 7210 yuan/ton (-0.14%). The basis of North - China plastics remained unchanged, and the East - China PP basis increased by 14.29% [53]. - **PE and PP Non - Standard Prices**: The prices of East - China LDPE, HD film, HD injection, PP injection, PP fiber, and PP low - melt co - polymer changed on August 18 compared to August 15 [53]. - **PE and PP Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 2.10%, the PE downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 0.47%, the PP device operating rate decreased by 1.1%, the PP powder operating rate increased by 4.1%, and the PP downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 0.3% [53]. - **PE and PP Inventories**: The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 13.76%, the PE social inventory decreased by 1.23%, the PP enterprise inventory increased by 0.07%, and the PP trader inventory decreased by 4.06% [53]. Methanol - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: On August 18, the MA2601 contract closed at 2396 yuan/ton (-0.66% compared to August 15), the MA2509 contract at 2293 yuan/ton (-0.99%), and the MA91 spread was - 103 yuan/ton (-7.29%). The basis and regional spreads also changed [56]. - **Methanol Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory was 29.5573% on August 18 (+0.64% compared to the previous period), and the methanol port inventory was 102.2 million tons (+10.41%) [56]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 72.63% on August 18 (-0.74% compared to the previous period), the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate was 76.92% (+0.68%), and the operating rates of other downstream industries also changed [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand weakness in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short - term long positions on dips and stop - profit, and left - side ambush for Russian geopolitical expectations in September and the hurricane supply - disruption season when oil prices slump sharply [2]. - For methanol, coal prices are rising, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level year - on - year. Domestic and overseas production capacity is increasing, leading to high supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see as the current situation is weak but may improve in the peak season [4]. - Regarding urea, domestic production has started to increase, and although enterprise profits are low, they are expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and overall demand is average. The price range is narrowing, and it is advisable to focus on long - position opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, it is expected to oscillate in the short term. A neutral approach is recommended, and partial closing of the long RU2601 and short RU2509 position is suggested [10]. - For PVC, the overall situation is supply - strong and demand - weak with high valuations. The cost of calcium carbide has declined, and the fundamentals are poor. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - In the case of styrene, the market macro - sentiment is good, and there is still cost support. The BZN spread has room for upward repair, and port inventories are decreasing. The price may follow the cost to oscillate upward [12][13]. - For polyethylene, the market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is cost support. But inventory pressure and seasonal factors exist. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - For polypropylene, Shandong refinery profits have stopped falling and rebounded, and the cost may dominate the market. It is expected to follow crude oil to oscillate stronger [16]. - For PX, the load is high, and downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance. However, due to new PTA installations, PX is expected to continue inventory reduction. There is support for valuation, but the upside is limited in the short term. It is recommended to follow crude oil to go long on dips [18][19]. - For PTA, supply may continue to increase inventory, and the processing fee has limited room. Demand is slightly improving, and it is recommended to follow PX to go long on dips when the peak - season demand improves [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply load is decreasing, and downstream load is increasing. Port inventories are decreasing, but the industry is expected to enter an inventory - accumulation cycle. Valuation is relatively high, and there is downward pressure on short - term valuation [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.14, or 0.22%, to $63.28; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.33, or 0.50%, to $66.46; INE main crude oil futures fell 3.70 yuan, or 0.76%, to 482.6 yuan [1]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data shows that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 1.37 million barrels to 207.19 million barrels, a 0.67% increase. Gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 1.81 million barrels to 90.14 million barrels, a 1.97% decrease. Diesel commercial inventory decreased by 0.96 million barrels to 104.59 million barrels, a 0.91% decrease. Total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 2.77 million barrels to 194.74 million barrels, a 1.40% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 18, the 01 - contract fell 16 yuan/ton to 2396 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 23 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 94 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Coal prices are rising, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still high year - on - year. Domestic and overseas production capacity is increasing, leading to high supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 18, the 01 - contract rose 17 yuan/ton to 1754 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 24 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production has started to increase, and although enterprise profits are low, they are expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and overall demand is average [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU oscillated and consolidated [8]. - **Data**: As of August 14, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from last week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.25%, down 2.28 percentage points from last week and 6.41 percentage points from the same period last year. As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a 0.85% decrease. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.7 tons, a 0.8% decrease, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 48 tons, a 0.8% decrease. RU inventory increased by 1%. As of August 17, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 48.54 (- 0.18) tons [9]. - **Analysis of Long and Short Views**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber - forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to production cuts, the seasonal trend turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears think that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production - cut amplitude may be lower than expected [12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 43 yuan to 5054 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4800 (- 50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 254 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 134 (+9) yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, the overall operating rate of PVC is 80.3%, up 0.9%. The downstream operating rate is 42.8%, down 0.1%. Factory inventory is 32.7 tons (- 1), and social inventory is 81.2 tons (+3.5). The enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a high level of the year, with high valuation pressure, low maintenance volume, high production, and weak downstream demand. The Indian anti - dumping policy affects exports [10]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices fell, and the basis weakened [12]. - **Analysis**: The market macro - sentiment is good, and there is still cost support. The BZN spread is at a low level in the same period, with large upward - repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the production of styrene is increasing. Port inventories are decreasing significantly. The short - term BZN may be repaired, and the price may follow the cost to oscillate upward [12][13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [15]. - **Analysis**: The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is cost support. Inventory pressure from traders is high, and demand is in the seasonal off - season. In August, there is a large production - capacity release plan. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [16]. - **Analysis**: Shandong refinery profits have stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. The downstream operating rate is seasonally oscillating downward. In August, there is a planned production - capacity release of 45 tons. In the context of weak supply and demand, the cost may dominate the market, and it is expected to follow crude oil to oscillate stronger [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 72 yuan to 6760 yuan, PX CFR rose 6 dollars to 833 dollars, the basis was 88 yuan (- 27), and the 11 - 1 spread was 36 yuan (+30) [18]. - **Fundamentals**: China's PX load is 84.3%, up 2.3%, and Asia's load is 74.1%, up 0.5%. Some devices have restarted or reduced load. PTA load is 76.4%, up 1.7%. In early August, South Korea's PX exports to China were 11.2 tons, down 0.5 tons year - on - year. Inventories decreased in June. PXN is 255 dollars (+2), and naphtha crack spread is 88 dollars (+7). PX is expected to continue inventory reduction, and there is support for valuation, but the upside is limited in the short term [18][19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 30 yuan to 4746 yuan, the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 4670 yuan, the basis was - 12 yuan (+1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 50 yuan (- 10) [20]. - **Fundamentals**: PTA load is 76.4%, up 1.7%. Some devices have stopped or restarted. The downstream load is 89.4%, up 0.6%. Terminal loads are increasing. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on August 8 was 227.3 tons, up 3.3 tons. The spot processing fee fell 19 yuan to 178 yuan, and the futures processing fee rose 2 yuan to 335 yuan. Supply may continue to increase inventory, and the processing fee has limited room. Demand is slightly improving [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 23 yuan to 4346 yuan, the East China spot price fell 21 yuan to 4441 yuan, the basis was 92 yuan (+4), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 46 yuan (- 3) [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply load is 66.4%, down 2%. Some devices have restarted or reduced load. The downstream load is 89.4%, up 0.6%. Import arrival forecast is 14.1 tons, and port inventory is 54.7 tons, down 0.6 tons. The cost of ethylene is flat, and the price of coal has risen. The industry is expected to enter an inventory - accumulation cycle, and the valuation is relatively high, with downward pressure on short - term valuation [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend due to strong demand factors [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 is likely to continue in a weaker pattern under the influence of a sharp decline in domestic coal futures prices and a weak supply - demand fundamental [4]. - Domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend as the demand growth rate has declined and the OPEC+ is increasing production, which may lead to a record supply surplus in the global crude oil market next year [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 10, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 61.99 million tons, a decrease of 1.19 million tons or 1.89% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.24%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 2.11%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 0.81 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.93 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.25 percentage points [8]. - As of August 15, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.11%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points month - on - month and 10.55 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, an increase of 2.56 percentage points month - on - month and 3.69 percentage points year - on - year [8]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12%. The production and sales growth rates increased by 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points respectively compared with January - June [9]. - In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [9]. - In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. From January to July, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 622,000, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.00%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.35%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.16%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.8633 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 18,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6,500 tons, and a significant increase of 79,000 tons compared with the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.47%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 9.17%, a week - on - week increase of 2.90%. The acetic acid operating rate was 86.56%, a week - on - week increase of 0.11%. The MTBE operating rate was 55.12%, a week - on - week increase of 1.21% [10]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.88%, a week - on - week increase of 3.18 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.61%. As of August 15, 2025, the futures contract profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 172 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 162 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 29 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 891,100 tons, a significant week - on - week increase of 87,800 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 295,100 tons, and a significant increase of 102,100 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of August 14, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 295,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,900 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 56,700 tons, and a significant decrease of 142,700 tons compared with 438,400 tons in the same period last year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 411, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 74 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.327 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 43,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 27,000 barrels per day [11]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 427 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 3.036 million barrels and a significant decrease of 3.98 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 23.051 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 45,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 403 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 226,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 96.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 1.7 percentage points, and a significant year - on - year increase of 4.9 percentage points [12]. - As of August 12, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 116,742 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 25,087 contracts and a significant decrease of 66,428 contracts or 36.27% compared with the July average of 183,170 contracts. As of August 12, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 199,820 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 30,594 contracts and a significant decrease of 20,256 contracts or 9.20% compared with the July average of 220,076 contracts [12]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,750 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 15,820 yuan/ton | - 85 yuan/ton | - 1,070 yuan/ton | + 85 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,340 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 2,396 yuan/ton | - 16 yuan/ton | - 56 yuan/ton | + 16 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 459.6 yuan/barrel | - 0.3 yuan/barrel | 486.5 yuan/barrel | - 1.6 yuan/barrel | - 26.9 yuan/barrel | + 1.3 yuan/barrel | [13] 3. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to rubber (such as rubber basis, 9 - 1 spread, etc.), methanol (such as methanol basis, 9 - 1 spread, etc.), and crude oil (such as crude oil basis, WTI and Brent net - position changes, etc.) [14][26][39]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and the macro - environment is bearish, current oil prices are relatively undervalued, with good static fundamentals and positive dynamic forecasts. It's a good time for left - hand side layout, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, oil prices will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, current reality is weak, but demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season. It's recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, the current situation is weak, but with low corporate profits, the downside is limited. There is a lack of upward drivers, but when positive factors emerge, prices may break out of the consolidation range. It's advisable to focus on long - position opportunities on dips [6] - For rubber, NR and RU are showing a strengthening trend in the oscillation. It's recommended to take a neutral view and wait and see in the short term, and consider a band - trading strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][10] - For PVC, it has a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It's necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation. It's recommended to wait and see [10] - For benzene styrene, the cost side has support, and the BZN spread has room for upward repair. Prices are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate upwards [12] - For PX, it has high load, and with new PTA installations, it's expected to continue de - stocking. It's recommended to look for long - position opportunities on dips following crude oil when the peak season arrives [18][19] - For PTA, there is expected continuous inventory build - up, and the processing fee has limited room for operation. It's recommended to look for long - position opportunities on dips following PX when downstream performance improves in the peak season [20] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental situation is expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is short - term pressure on valuation decline [21] Summary by Category Crude Oil - As of last Friday, WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.79, a 1.24% decline, at $63.14; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.76, a 1.14% decline, at $66.13; INE main crude oil futures closed up 4.40 yuan, a 0.91% increase, at 486.3 yuan [1] - European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.63 million barrels to 8.75 million barrels, a 6.76% decline; diesel inventory increased by 0.73 million barrels to 13.89 million barrels, a 5.56% increase; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.20 million barrels to 6.75 million barrels, a 3.00% increase; naphtha inventory increased by 0.76 million barrels to 5.72 million barrels, a 15.25% increase; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 0.50 million barrels to 7.29 million barrels, a 7.31% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 1.55 million barrels to 42.40 million barrels, a 3.78% increase [1] Methanol - On August 15, the 01 contract dropped 23 yuan/ton to 2412 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 87 [4] - Coal prices have bottomed out and risen, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level compared to the same period. Domestic production is gradually bottoming out and rising, and overseas installations are at a high level, so imports will gradually increase, resulting in large supply pressure [4] - Traditional demand has low profits, and attention should be paid to the actual demand during the "Golden September and Silver October". Olefin profits have improved, but port operation rates are low, and demand is weak [4] Urea - On August 15, the 01 contract rose 11 yuan/ton to 1737 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 37 [6] - Domestic production has turned from decline to increase, and corporate profits are still low but are expected to gradually bottom out and recover. Production is still at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period, and overall supply is relatively loose [6] - Domestic agricultural demand is ending and will enter the off - season. Compound fertilizer production is rising, and finished product inventory is at a high level. Exports are progressing steadily, and overall demand is average [6] Rubber - NR and RU are strengthening in the oscillation [8] - As of August 14, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from last week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year. Domestic and export orders for all - steel tires are normal. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.25%, down 2.28 percentage points from last week and 6.41 percentage points from the same period last year. Export orders for semi - steel tires are weak [9] - As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, down 1.1 tons from the previous week, a 0.85% decline. The total inventory of dark rubber was 79.7 tons, down 0.8%; the total inventory of light rubber was 48 tons, down 0.8%. RU inventory increased by 1%. As of August 11, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 48.72(-1.4) tons [9] PVC - The PVC09 contract dropped 16 yuan to 4954 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4850(-10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 104(+6) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 143(+11) yuan/ton [10] - The cost of calcium carbide decreased, and the overall PVC operating rate was 80.3%, up 0.9% from the previous period. Among them, the calcium carbide method was 80%, up 1.3%; the ethylene method was 81.3%, down 0.2% [10] - The overall downstream operating rate was 42.8%, down 0.1% from the previous period. Factory inventory was 32.7 tons (-1), and social inventory was 81.2 tons (+3.5) [10] Benzene Styrene - Spot prices dropped, futures prices rose, and the basis weakened [12] - The market's macro - sentiment is good, and the cost side still has support. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with large upward repair space [12] - The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has increased, and production is rising. Port inventory is continuously and significantly decreasing, and the demand - side operating rate of three S products is oscillating upwards [12] PX - The PX11 contract rose 74 yuan to 6688 yuan, PX CFR rose 3 dollars to 827 dollars, the basis was 115 yuan (-46), and the 11 - 1 spread was 6 yuan (+10) [18] - China's PX load was 84.3%, up 2.3% from the previous period; Asian load was 74.1%, up 0.5% [18] - Some domestic and overseas installations had restarts and shutdowns. PTA load was 76.4%, up 1.7%. In August, South Korea's PX exports to China were 11.2 tons, down 0.5 tons from the same period last year [18] PTA - The PTA09 contract rose 36 yuan to 4676 yuan, the spot price in East China rose 10 yuan to 4660 yuan, the basis was - 13 yuan (+1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 40 yuan (-14) [20] - PTA load was 76.4%, up 1.7%. Some installations had restarts and shutdowns. Downstream load was 89.4%, up 0.6%. Terminal draw - texturing load rose 2% to 72%, and loom load rose 4% to 63% [20] - As of August 8, social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 227.3 tons, up 3.3 tons from the previous period [20] Ethylene Glycol - The EG09 contract rose 2 yuan to 4369 yuan, the spot price in East China dropped 6 yuan to 4462 yuan, the basis was 88 yuan (+6), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 43 yuan (+4) [21] - The supply - side load was 66.4%, down 2%. Among them, synthetic gas - based production was 80.5%, up 5.3%; ethylene - based production was 57.9%, down 6.4%. Some installations had restarts and shutdowns [21] - Downstream load was 89.4%, up 0.6%. Terminal draw - texturing load rose 2% to 72%, and loom load rose 4% to 63%. The expected import volume was 14.1 tons, and the outbound volume from East China on August 14 was 0.67 tons. Port inventory was 55.3 tons, up 3.7 tons [21]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol market is experiencing significant regional differentiation, characterized by a "strong inland and weak port" scenario, contrasting sharply with the "strong port and weak inland" situation observed in the first half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current methanol price gap between inland and port regions has narrowed, with the ex-factory price in the northwest exceeding 2100 yuan/ton, while port prices have dropped to around 2350 yuan/ton, resulting in a price difference of 230-250 yuan/ton [1]. - The northwest region is facing low inventory levels and strong demand due to maintenance of coal-to-olefin facilities, while port areas are experiencing rapid inventory accumulation, exceeding 200,000 tons as of August, with total coastal inventory surpassing 1,100,000 tons [1][2]. Group 2: Historical Context - In the first half of the year, the methanol market was characterized by a "strong port and weak inland" dynamic, primarily due to low imports from Iran and a significant drop in port inventories [2]. - The shift in market dynamics is attributed to maintenance of port-based methanol production facilities and an increase in imports, leading to a substantial rise in port inventories [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - Current market conditions are influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties and regional supply-demand imbalances, with rising coal prices supporting methanol costs, while declining crude oil prices weaken downstream product prices [3]. - The inland coal chemical enterprises are facing rising production costs, while coastal downstream enterprises are experiencing significant losses, leading to weak demand and low acceptance of high-priced domestic methanol [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The methanol market is expected to maintain regional differentiation, with stable operating rates and a slight strength in the inland market, while coastal markets may continue to accumulate inventory due to increased imports [4]. - The key factors influencing future price trends will be actual demand during the peak season and inventory accumulation, with potential buying opportunities following market corrections [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino - US second - round trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause as scheduled, and the policy tone of the Politburo meeting was basically the same as before. The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume, and the performance of heavy - weight stocks was strong. The improvement of corporate earnings needs to be verified by mid - report data [2]. - The stock - bond seesaw continues to put pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment of the bond market has not recovered [2]. - The fluctuation of gold prices increases due to macro news, but the upward trend remains. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and the short position of the 10 - contract should be held [2]. - Steel prices are supported by limited inventory in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. Some coal prices are loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation [2]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The short - term silver price is expected to continue to rise after range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The supply - demand situation of some energy and chemical products is complex. Some products are in a weak shock, and some have price support or improvement expectations [2]. - Some agricultural products are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and some have price trends affected by supply - demand factors [2]. - Some special and new energy products are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume. It is recommended to sell put options with an execution price of around 6400 for MO2509 when the price is high, and maintain a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The stock - bond seesaw puts pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment has not recovered. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and focus on the tax - period capital situation and new bond issuance pricing [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are expected to rise, and a bullish spread portfolio can be constructed through gold call options. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations, and long positions can be held or a bullish spread strategy can be constructed [2]. Black - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices are supported, and iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of some coking coal is loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coke and short on iron ore [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper and Aluminum**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The supply - side benefits for aluminum are limited, and the price has a small increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure level [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: The price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and supply - demand expectations. Some products such as PX, PTA, and styrene are in a weak shock, and some products such as bottle chips have price support [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: The prices of some chemical products such as PVC, pure benzene, and synthetic rubber are affected by various factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Agricultural - **Grains and Oilseeds**: The prices of some agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and oils are affected by supply - demand factors. It is recommended to take corresponding trading strategies such as stopping profit on long positions and shorting on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The prices of some agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, and eggs are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Special and New Energy - **Special Products**: The prices of some special products such as glass and rubber are affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended, such as holding short positions and waiting and seeing [2]. - **New Energy Products**: The prices of some new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Methanol - The inland maintenance is expected to peak in early August. Currently, the production volume remains at a high level year - on - year. This week, the port has significantly accumulated inventory, the basis is stable, there are many imports in August, downstream demand is weak due to low profits, MTO profits are low, and the situation of low - profit and high - load operation is unsustainable. Pay attention to the subsequent start - up situation. For the 09 contract, there is significant inventory accumulation. The 01 contract has expectations of a seasonal peak season and Iranian plant shutdowns. After the near - end weakens significantly, consider building positions at low prices [1][2]. Polyolefins - On the supply side, PP maintenance is starting to decline, PE maintenance will increase in mid - to - late August, imports remain at a low level, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation from August to September. On the demand side, the downstream start - up of PP/PE is at a low level, raw material inventories have decreased to a low level, and there is potential for restocking during the subsequent peak season. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the inventory of the upper and middle reaches is being depleted. The fundamental contradictions are not significant. The strategy is to take profit on the previous unilateral short positions at 7200 - 7300 near 7000 and continue to hold the LP01 position [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Some PX maintenance units have restart expectations, and PX supply will increase marginally in August. Although there are new PTA units being put into operation, there are many unplanned PTA unit shutdowns in August due to low processing fees. The PX supply - demand situation is expected to weaken marginally in August, and with weak oil price support, PX will fluctuate weakly. However, the medium - term supply - demand pressure is not significant, and the downward space for PX is limited. The strategy is to pay attention to the support near 6500 - 6600 for PX11 and mainly expand the PX - SC spread at low levels [10]. - **PTA**: Due to continuously low processing spreads, the planned shutdowns of PTA units have increased in August, and the PTA supply - demand situation has improved compared to expectations. However, with the commissioning of the new Hailun Petrochemical PTA unit, the medium - term PTA supply - demand situation is expected to be weak, and the PTA basis will operate weakly. Overall, considering the weak supply - demand expectations and the trend of oil prices, PTA will fluctuate weakly. However, due to low PTA processing fees and limited PX supply - demand pressure, and with the expectation of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the downward space for PTA is limited. The strategy is to pay attention to the support near 4600 for TA01, conduct reverse arbitrage for TA1 - 5 at high prices, and mainly expand the PTA surface processing fee at low levels (around 250) [10]. - **MEG**: In terms of domestic supply, multiple coal - to - MEG units are restarting or increasing production in August, but the 1.9 - million - ton - per - year MEG unit of Shenghong Refining & Chemical is currently shut down due to an accident, and the restart time is undetermined, so the domestic supply recovery is postponed. In terms of overseas supply, the Ma Petroleum and Saudi Sharg3 units have shut down temporarily, and the restart time is unclear. The MEG import volume may be revised downwards. On the demand side, terminal orders are weak during the traditional off - season, but as the high - temperature period and the off - season are coming to an end, the polyester load will gradually increase. Overall, the short - term MEG supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The strategy is that EGO9 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4350 - 4500 [10]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber supply and demand are both increasing. On the supply side, the previously shut - down short - fiber plants are gradually restarting. In terms of demand, with the approaching of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, there are improvements in local autumn and winter orders at the terminal, and the downstream yarn - coating demand has increased slightly compared to last year, providing some support for prices. However, the short - term supply - demand driving force is limited, and the weak oil price trend may cause the absolute price of short - fiber to fluctuate weakly. The strategy is the same as that for TA in a single - side trade; the surface processing fee will fluctuate in the range of 800 - 1100, and the upward and downward driving forces are both limited [10]. - **Bottle - grade polyester**: August is still the peak season for soft - drink consumption, and large bottle - grade polyester plants such as Sanfangxiang, China Resources, Yisheng, and Wankai are maintaining production cuts. As the production - cut time extends, even though the demand is average, the production - cut effect is gradually emerging, as reflected in the slow depletion of current bottle - grade polyester inventory, which provides support for the processing fee. The absolute price still follows the cost side. The precondition for the processing fee to expand is an increase in demand. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the production cuts of bottle - grade polyester units will further increase and the downstream follow - up situation. The strategy is that the PR single - side trade is the same as that for PTA, the main - contract surface processing fee of PR is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton, and consider going long on the processing fee at low prices in the short term [10]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are rebounding. The current main trading logic is the game between geopolitical risk uncertainties and weak demand expectations. Specifically, the meeting between US and Russian leaders may cause oil price fluctuations. If the summit fails, the threat of secondary sanctions from the US on Russian oil buyers such as China and India may lead to supply disruptions in Russia, triggering a short - term bullish risk premium and driving oil prices to rebound slightly. However, the loose supply - demand fundamentals suppress the upward space. The IEA expects the supply surplus pressure to become increasingly prominent from 2025 - 2026, and the production increase of OPEC+ and the growth of non - member supply will further increase the loose pressure. In the short term, the unexpected increase in EIA US crude oil inventories has also strengthened the bearish sentiment. Macroscopically, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September provides some support for demand, but the impact is limited and lagging. Overall, the market remains in a stalemate before the summit results. As the weekend approaches, oil prices face two - way risks and the volatility will intensify. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines for single - side trades and consider widening the spreads between October - November/December. The support levels are [60, 61] for WTI, [63, 64] for Brent, and [470, 480] for SC. On the options side, opportunities for volatility contraction can be captured [14]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic soda**: The delivery volume of caustic soda to the main downstream has increased, and the non - aluminum downstream rigid demand has followed up. The overall demand performance has been good recently. However, some units in East China will resume operation next week. There will be fewer maintenance enterprises in the future than before, and the supply is expected to increase. In South China, it is the off - season for non - aluminum industries, but the supply is increasing. The exports of East China enterprises are mostly previous orders, and the non - aluminum market is also average. It is expected that the number of warehouse receipts in the main production areas will increase in August, which will also have a certain negative impact. It is expected that the rebound height will be limited. In the future, attention can be paid to the purchasing situation of alumina enterprises [76]. - **PVC**: On the supply side, new production capacity is being gradually put into operation, the domestic trade is weak, the spot trading is weak, and the number of warehouse receipts on the futures market is increasing. The inventory pressure continues to increase, and the demand is difficult to improve. In August, new domestic and foreign production capacity will continue to be released. Fujian Wanhua and Tianjin Bohua are expected to release production capacity in August, Gansu Yaowang plans to start production in August, and Qingdao Haiwan plans to start production in September. The release of new production capacity will put new pressure on the PVC supply side. On the downstream side, there is no expectation of improvement, the start - up rate of downstream product enterprises remains low, and the purchasing enthusiasm is weak. The industry is still in the off - season. Overall, the supply - demand pressure remains significant. The movement of coking coal will affect the PVC futures price from the cost side. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines for short - term trades [76]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Pure benzene**: In the third quarter, there are expectations of improvement in the pure benzene supply - demand situation compared to the previous quarter. With fewer port arrivals in August, port inventories are expected to decline, which will provide some short - term support for pure benzene prices. However, the overall supply of goods remains sufficient, and its own driving force is limited. It is expected that the short - term support for pure benzene will be relatively strong. However, with weak oil price support and weak medium - term supply - demand expectations, pure benzene will face some pressure. The strategy is that the BZ2603 single - side trade will follow the trends of oil prices and styrene [79]. - **Styrene**: In the short term, the overall styrene supply remains at a high level. However, as styrene profits are being compressed, some units have maintenance expectations; the overall load of the downstream 3S has increased. The short - term styrene supply - demand situation has improved marginally, and the port inventory continues to decline slightly, but the absolute level of port inventory is still high, and the fundamental driving force for styrene is limited. Coupled with the recent weak oil price trend, styrene may be dragged down in the short term. The strategy is to pay attention to the support near 7200 for EB09 and consider shorting on rebounds [79]. Urea - Recently, the futures market has been fluctuating weakly. The main trading logic is that the loose domestic supply - demand situation has dragged down the center of the futures price. Specifically, on the supply side, the production volume has increased, and the capacity utilization rate has improved. Although some enterprises are under maintenance, the overall supply is sufficient. On the demand side, agricultural demand is weak, industrial demand has limited growth, and in some regions, downstream production is restricted due to the military parade, resulting in temporary pressure on demand. The continuous inventory accumulation has further increased the market pressure. Although there is a certain amount of exports, the increase is limited, and the market's expectation for export fulfillment has cooled down, making it difficult to reverse the loose domestic supply - demand situation, which has led to the downward pressure on the futures price. In the future, pay attention to the resumption progress of maintenance enterprises and new maintenance plans, as well as the progress of the export side, the final confirmed volume of the Indian IPL tender, and China's supply proportion. In the short term, the futures market is likely to continue to operate weakly [86]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 14, the closing price of MA2601 was 2435, down 1.77% from the previous day; the closing price of MA2509 was 2340, down 1.47%. The MA91 spread was - 8.65%, and the Taicang basis remained stable at 10. The spot prices in Inner Mongolia's northern line, Henan Luoyang, and Taicang all declined to varying degrees [1]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory was 29.5573 tons, up 0.64% from the previous value; port inventory was 102.2 tons, up 10.41%; social inventory was 131.7 tons, up 8.06% [1]. - **Start - up Rates**: As of Thursday, the domestic upstream start - up rate was 72.63%, down 0.74%; the overseas upstream start - up rate was 69.8%, up 1.96%. The downstream MTO unit start - up rate was 76.92%, up 0.68%; the formaldehyde start - up rate remained unchanged at 30.2%; the water - based paint start - up rate was 90.8%, up 1.09% [1]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 14, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all declined to varying degrees. The spreads between L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 also changed. The basis of North China LDPE film and East China PP both increased slightly [7]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, PE enterprise inventory was 44.5 tons, down 13.76% from the previous value; PP enterprise inventory was 58.8 tons, up 0.07%. The PP trader inventory was 18.0 tons, down 4.06% [7]. - **Start - up Rates**: As of Thursday, the PE device start - up rate was 77.8%, down 2.10%; the downstream weighted start - up rate was 37.9%, down 0.47%. The PP device start - up rate was 76.6%, down 1.1%; the PP powder start - up rate was 37.5%, up 4.1%; the downstream weighted start - up rate was 48.6%, down 0.3% [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 14, the prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha all changed to varying degrees. The prices of downstream polyester products such as POY150/48, FDY150/96, and polyester bottle - grade chips also fluctuated. The PX - related prices and spreads, as well as the PTA - related prices and spreads, also showed different trends [10]. - **Inventory and Arrival Expectations**: As of August 11, the MEG port inventory was 55.3 tons, up 7.2% from August 4. The MEG arrival expectation on August 14 was 14.1 tons, up 2.2% from the previous day [10]. - **Start - up Rates**: The Asian PX start - up rate was 73.6%, up 0.2%; the Chinese PX start - up rate was 82.0%, up 0.9%. The PTA start - up rate was 76.2%, up 0.9%; the MEG comprehensive start - up rate was 68.4%, down 0.6%. The polyester comprehensive start - up rate was 88.8%, up 0.7% [10]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 15, Brent crude oil was at $66.84 per barrel, up 1.84% from the previous day; WTI was at $63.90 per barrel, down 0.09%. The spreads between different contracts and different crude oil varieties also changed significantly [14]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil all changed to varying degrees on August 15. The spreads between different refined oil contracts also showed different trends [14]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 14, the prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%), East China calcium - carbide - based PVC, and other products all declined to varying degrees. The spreads between different contracts and the basis also changed [76]. - **Inventory**: As of August 7, the liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories was 21.9 tons, up 2.0%; the PVC upstream factory inventory was 33.7 tons, down 2.4%; the total PVC social inventory was 48.1 tons, up 7.3% [76]. - **Start - up Rates**: As of August 8, the PVC total start - up rate was 77.8%, up 6.1%. The start - up rates of downstream products such as alumina, viscose staple fiber, and PVC pipes all changed to varying degrees [76]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 14, the prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha all changed. The prices of pure benzene and styrene - related products also fluctuated. The spreads between different products and contracts also showed different trends [79]. - **Inventory**: As of August 11, the pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 14.60 tons, down 10.4%; the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 14.88 tons, down 6.4% [79]. - **Start - up Rates**: As of August 8, the Asian pure benzene start - up rate was 76.096%, down 1.3%; the domestic pure benzene start - up rate was 78.8%, up 0.3%. The start - up rates of downstream products such as PS, EPS, and ABS also changed to varying degrees [79]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All commodities in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the "Trump - Putin Summit", and the market is in a state of waiting for further guidance with an increase in risk - aversion sentiment. The oil price has rebounded from a low level, but the final outcome of the talks needs to be monitored [1]. - The fuel oil market is under pressure due to sufficient supply and falling spot premiums. The high - sulfur fuel oil's summer power - generation demand is waning, and the upward space for both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is not optimistic [2]. - The asphalt market is expected to show a pattern of increasing supply and demand in August. In the short term, the price will likely fluctuate within a range due to the lack of a clear one - sided driver [2][4]. - The polyester market is affected by the decline in crude oil prices. With the recovery of supply and demand, the polyester chain follows the decline in the cost - end crude oil price [4]. - The methanol market has a situation where the Iranian device load has recovered to a high point, the port inventory has increased rapidly, suppressing the near - month price. However, the main contract will switch to January, and the subsequent winter port destocking will limit the downward space, maintaining a near - weak and far - strong structure with narrow - range price fluctuations [5]. - The polyolefin market is approaching the peak demand season of "Golden September and Silver October". The supply will remain at a high level after the end of the maintenance season, and the demand is expected to increase. The overall upward space is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5]. - The PVC market has high - level supply fluctuations and gradually recovering demand. The supply - demand gap is narrowing, and the inventory is expected to decline slowly. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices rose. The WTI September contract closed up $1.31 to $63.96 per barrel, a 2.09% increase; the Brent October contract closed up $1.21 to $66.84 per barrel, a 1.84% increase; SC2509 closed at 488.2 yuan per barrel, up 4.6 yuan per barrel, a 0.95% increase. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations may boost market demand. The "Trump - Putin Summit" is about to take place, and the market is waiting for the outcome. The oil price has rebounded from a low level, and the overall view is "volatile" [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed down 1.03% at 2700 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2510 closed down 0.23% at 3449 yuan per ton. Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory decreased, and the spot premium of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore fell to a four - month low. The overall view is "volatile" [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed down 0.4% at 3510 yuan per ton. This week, the sample shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of 69 sample modified asphalt enterprises increased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to recover, with the price expected to fluctuate within a range. The view is "volatile" [2][4]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 0.55% at 4666 yuan per ton; EG2509 closed down 0.89% at 4367 yuan per ton. Some MEG devices are shut down, and some polyester devices are restarted. The overall view is "volatile" [4]. - **Methanol**: The Iranian device load has recovered to a high point, the port inventory has increased rapidly, suppressing the near - month price. The main contract will switch to January, and the price is expected to maintain a near - weak and far - strong structure with narrow - range fluctuations. The view is "volatile" [5]. - **Polyolefin**: The maintenance season is coming to an end, and the supply will remain high. With the approaching of the peak demand season, the demand is expected to increase. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The view is "volatile" [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The supply remains at a high - level fluctuation, the demand is gradually recovering, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The view is "volatile" [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the base - price data of multiple energy - chemical varieties on August 15, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [7]. 3.3 Market News - The Russian government is considering extending the full ban on gasoline exports until September [9]. - South Korea did not import Iranian crude oil in July this year and last year, and its crude oil imports in July this year were 11.3 million tons, slightly higher than the same period last year [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing - price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [11][13][15][17][19][21][24] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. from 2021 to 2025 [25][27][31][32][33][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [39][41][44][47][50][51][54] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread charts of different varieties such as crude oil's internal - external market, B - W spread, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spread, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, etc. [56][60][58] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production - profit charts of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [64][66] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with their own professional fields and rich experience and honors [69][70][71][72] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [74]