Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Urea futures showed a weak and volatile trend, mainly due to the game between the expected support from the export end and the domestic demand in the third quarter. The implementation of India's tender and the release of quotas will relieve the domestic high - supply pressure to some extent, but the domestic consumption restricts the upward elasticity. The short - term trend is likely to remain weak and volatile, and the actual export volume needs to be monitored [29]. - For methanol, the inland maintenance is expected to peak in early August, with high output year - on - year. The port has significantly accumulated inventory this week, and the import in August is still high. The downstream demand is weak due to low profits. The 09 contract has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation, while the 01 contract has seasonal peak season and Iran's shutdown expectations. It is recommended to build positions at low levels after the near - end weakens [32]. - In the polyester industry, the supply of PX is expected to increase marginally in August, but the demand from PTA and the terminal is not good, so the PX rebound is lack of drive. PTA's supply - demand situation has improved in the short - term but is expected to be weak in the medium - term. Ethylene glycol's short - term supply - demand is expected to improve. Short - fiber's short - term supply - demand drive is limited. Bottle - chip's processing fee has support, and its absolute price follows the cost [37]. - For PVC and caustic soda, the demand for caustic soda is currently good, but the supply is expected to increase in the future, and the rebound height is limited. PVC's supply pressure is increasing due to new capacity release, and the downstream demand has no sign of improvement [46]. - In the polyolefin industry, the supply of PP and PE has different trends, and the demand is expected to improve with the approaching of the peak season. The fundamental contradiction is not significant. It is recommended to stop profit for short positions and hold the LP01 contract [52]. - For crude oil, the overnight oil price declined due to the supply - side factors. The market sentiment is pessimistic, and the oil price is under pressure. The oil price is likely to remain weak, and the impact of the US - Russia negotiation on Friday needs to be monitored [59]. - In the pure benzene - styrene industry, pure benzene has short - term support but limited self - drive, and its rebound is under pressure. Styrene has a short - term situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend [63]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Urea - **Futures Contracts**: On August 13, the 01 contract was 1747 yuan/ton (-0.51% compared to August 12), the 05 contract was 1788 yuan/ton (-0.45%), the 09 contract was 1726 yuan/ton (-0.06%), and the methanol main contract was 2375 yuan/ton (-0.67%) [25]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: On August 13, the 01 - 05 contract spread was -41 yuan/ton (-2.50% compared to August 12), the 05 - 09 contract spread was 62 yuan/ton (-10.14%), the 09 - 01 contract spread was -21 yuan/ton (27.59%), and the UR - MA main contract spread was -649 yuan/ton (2.26%) [26]. - **Main Positions**: On August 13, the long top 20 positions were 42364 (-17.26% compared to August 12), the short top 20 positions were 49534 (-18.28%), the long - short ratio was 0.86 (1.26%), the unilateral trading volume was 90686 (-0.82%), and the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt quantity was 3823 (0.00%) [27]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: On August 13, the price of anthracite small pieces in Jincheng was 900 yuan/ton (0.00%), the price of thermal coal at the pithead in Ejin Horo Banner was 525 yuan/ton (0.00%), etc. [28]. - **Spot Market Prices**: On August 13, the price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1730 yuan/ton (0.58%), in Shanxi was 1620 yuan/ton (-0.61%), etc. [28]. - **Cross - regional Spreads**: On August 13, the Shandong - Henan spread was -10 yuan/ton (0%), the Guangdong - Henan spread was 140 yuan/ton (-7%), etc. [29]. - **Downstream Products**: On August 13, the price of melamine in Shandong was 5194 yuan/ton (0.00%), the price of 45% S compound fertilizer in Henan was 2930 yuan/ton (0.00%), etc. [29]. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: On August 15, the domestic daily urea output was 19.21 million tons (1.05% compared to August 14), the coal - based urea daily output was 15.03 million tons (1.35%), etc. [29]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 13, the MA2601 closing price was 2479 yuan/ton (-0.68% compared to August 12), the MA2509 closing price was 2375 yuan/ton (-0.67%), etc. [31]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory was 29.5573% (0.64% compared to the previous value), the methanol port inventory was 102.2 million tons (10.41%), and the methanol social inventory was 131.7% (8.06%) [31]. - **Upstream and Downstream**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 73.17% (2.28% compared to the previous value), the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate was 76.4% (0.00%), etc. [32]. Polyester Industry - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On August 13, the POY150/48 price was 6745 yuan/ton (0.2% compared to August 12), the FDY150/96 price was 7095 yuan/ton (0.0%), etc. [37]. - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: On August 13, the CFR China PX price was 10300 yuan/ton (-0.4% compared to August 12), the PX - naphtha spread was 267 yuan/ton (1.1%), etc. [37]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: On August 13, the PTA East - China spot price was 4695 yuan/ton (-0.2% compared to August 12), the TA09 - TA01 spread was -34 yuan/ton (0.0%), etc. [37]. - **MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectations**: On August 11, the MEG port inventory was 51.6 million tons (7.2% compared to August 4), and the MEG arrival expectation was 14.1 million tons (3.7%) [37]. - **Polyester Industry Operating Rate Changes**: The Asian PX operating rate was 73.6% (0.2% compared to August 1), the PTA operating rate was 76.2% (0.9%), etc. [37]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On August 13, the Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2500 yuan/ton (0.0%), the Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2620 yuan/ton (0.8%), etc. [42]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: On August 7, the P - 13 - 4 price was 390 US dollars/ton (-2.59% compared to July 31), and the export profit was 142.5 yuan/ton (19.0%) [42]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: On August 7, the CFR Southeast Asia price was 680 US dollars/ton (0.0% compared to July 31), and the export profit was 30.3 yuan/ton (152.5%) [43]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry operating rate was 89.1% (1.7% compared to August 1), the PVC total operating rate was 77.8% (6.1%), etc. [44]. - **Demand**: The alumina industry operating rate was 82.6% (0.2% compared to August 1), the viscose staple fiber industry operating rate was 85.0% (0.0%), etc. [45]. - **Inventory**: On August 7, the liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory was 21.9 million tons (2.0% compared to July 31), the PVC total social inventory was 48.1 million tons (7.3%), etc. [46]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 13, the L2601 closing price was 7381 yuan/ton (-0.11% compared to August 12), the L2509 closing price was 7313 yuan/ton (-0.22%), etc. [50]. - **PE and PP Non - standard Prices**: The East - China LDPE price was 9550 yuan/ton (0.00% compared to the previous value), the East - China HD film price was 7490 yuan/ton (-0.13%), etc. [51]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate was 77.8% (-2.10% compared to the previous value), the PE downstream weighted operating rate was 37.9% (-0.47%), etc. [51]. Crude Oil - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: On August 14, Brent was 65.63 US dollars/barrel (-0.74% compared to August 13), WTI was 62.79 US dollars/barrel (0.22%), SC was 490.50 yuan/barrel (-0.77%), etc. [59]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: On August 14, NYM RBOB was 207.72 US dollars/gallon (0.33% compared to August 13), NYM ULSD was 224.90 US dollars/gallon (0.28%), etc. [59]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: On August 14, the US gasoline crack spread was 24.45 US dollars/barrel (2.08% compared to August 13), the European gasoline crack spread was 16.04 US dollars/barrel (0.00%), etc. [59]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On August 13, the CFR China pure benzene price was 751 US dollars/ton (-0.5% compared to August 12), the pure benzene - naphtha spread was 187 US dollars/ton (1.1%), etc. [63]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: On August 13, the styrene East - China spot price was 7350 yuan/ton (-0.3% compared to August 12), the EB09 - EB10 spread was -23 yuan/ton (-11.5%), etc. [63]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: On August 13, the phenol cash flow was -720 yuan/ton (-1.2% compared to August 12), the caprolactam cash flow (single product) was -1845 yuan/ton (1.7%), etc. [63]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: On August 11, the pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 14.60 million tons (-10.4% compared to August 4), the styrene Jiangsu port inventory was 14.88 million tons (-6.4%), etc. [63].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and the macro environment is bearish, current oil prices are relatively undervalued. The static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain favorable, presenting a good opportunity for left - hand side layout. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, oil prices will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, its valuation is still high, downstream demand is weak, and prices face pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, domestic demand is currently weak, but its overall valuation is low and the room for further decline is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to going long at low prices and wait for potential positive factors [6] - For rubber, the price has risen recently. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term trading. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 for band trading [13] - For PVC, the supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high. It is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair. After the high - level port inventory is depleted, the styrene price may follow the cost side and fluctuate upwards [15][16] - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory depletion. The price will be determined by the game between the cost and supply sides in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [18] - For polypropylene, the cost side may dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [19] - For PX, it is expected to continue de - stocking, and the valuation has support at the bottom, but the upside is limited in the short term. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long following crude oil after the peak season arrives [21][22] - For PTA, it is expected to continue to build inventory, and the processing fee has limited room for operation. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long following PX after the downstream performance improves in the peak season [23] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals will change from strong to weak, and the short - term valuation is under downward pressure [24] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.34, a 0.54% decline, at $62.74; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.37, a 0.56% decline, at $65.74; INE main crude oil futures closed down 5.70 yuan, a 1.15% decline, at 489.5 yuan [1] - **Data**: US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.04 million barrels to 426.70 million barrels, a 0.72% increase; SPR replenished 0.23 million barrels to 403.20 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 0.79 million barrels to 226.29 million barrels, a 0.35% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 0.71 million barrels to 113.69 million barrels, a 0.63% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.07 million barrels to 19.73 million barrels, a 0.33% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.62 million barrels to 43.74 million barrels, a 1.40% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 13, the 01 contract fell 17 yuan/ton to 2479 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 2 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 104 [4] - **Analysis**: Domestic production has declined again, but corporate profits remain high. Future supply is likely to increase marginally. Port inventories are rising due to faster unloading and shutdown of port MTO plants. Inland inventories are low due to olefin procurement support. The valuation is high, downstream demand is weak, and prices face pressure [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 13, the 01 contract fell 9 yuan/ton to 1747 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 27 [6] - **Analysis**: Domestic production continues to decline, and corporate profits are at a low level but are expected to bottom out. Overall supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and the market is entering the off - season. Future demand will mainly come from compound fertilizers and exports. Domestic demand is weak, and inventory depletion is slow [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated and consolidated [9] - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia may lead to production cuts, there is a seasonal upward trend in the second half of the year, and Chinese demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [10] - **Industry Situation**: As of August 7, 2025, the full - steel tire production rate in Shandong was 60.98%, down 0.08 percentage points from last week but up 8.72 percentage points from the previous year. Domestic sales were slow, but exports were good. The semi - steel tire production rate was 74.53%, down 0.10 percentage points from last week and 4.21 percentage points from the previous year. Semi - steel tire factories had inventory pressure [11] - **Inventory**: As of August 3, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.289 million tons, a decrease of 0.48 tons from the previous period, a 0.4% decline. The total inventory of dark rubber was 804,000 tons, a 0.13% decrease, and the total inventory of light rubber was 485,000 tons, a 0.8% decrease. As of August 11, 2025, the inventory in Qingdao was 487,200 (- 14,000) tons [12] - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term trading. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 for band trading [13] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 31 yuan to 5016 yuan, and the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4900 (- 10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 116 (+ 21) yuan/ton and a 9 - 1 spread of - 151 (- 5) yuan/ton [13] - **Analysis**: The overall production rate was 79.5%, up 2.6%. The demand - side downstream production rate was 42.9%, up 0.8%. Factory inventory was 337,000 tons (- 8000 tons), and social inventory was 777,000 tons (+ 54,000 tons). Corporate comprehensive profits reached a high for the year, and the valuation was under pressure. Production was at a five - year high, and downstream production was at a five - year low. Indian anti - dumping policies were extended [13] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices both fell, and the basis remained unchanged [15] - **Analysis**: The macro market sentiment was positive, and there was still support on the cost side. The BZN spread was at a relatively low level for the same period and had a large upward repair space. The production rate of pure benzene decreased slightly, and the supply was still abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation decreased, but the styrene production rate continued to rise. Port inventory decreased significantly. Demand in the low - season was weak [15][16] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [18] - **Analysis**: The market was expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there was still support on the cost side. Spot prices remained unchanged, and the valuation had limited downward space. Trader inventory was at a high level, and the support for prices was weakening. Demand was in the seasonal off - season, and the production rate of agricultural film orders was low. There was a plan to put 1.1 million tons of production capacity into operation in August [18] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose [19] - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the production rate was expected to recover. Downstream production rates were seasonally declining. Only 450,000 tons of planned production capacity was to be put into operation in August. In the context of weak supply and demand, the cost side may dominate the market, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [19] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 48 yuan to 6784 yuan, and PX CFR fell 3 dollars to 831 dollars, with a basis of 114 (+ 81) yuan and a 9 - 1 spread of 64 (- 20) yuan [21] - **Analysis**: The Chinese production rate was 82%, up 0.9%; the Asian production rate was 73.6%, up 0.2%. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. PTA production rate was 74.7%, up 2.1%. In August, South Korean PX exports to China decreased year - on - year. June - end inventory decreased month - on - month. The PXN was $264 (- 3), and the naphtha crack spread was $85 (+ 6) [21][22] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 34 yuan to 4692 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 10 yuan to 4695 yuan, with a basis of - 13 (0) yuan and a 9 - 1 spread of - 34 (0) yuan [23] - **Analysis**: The PTA production rate was 74.7%, up 2.1%. Some plants had load adjustments. The downstream production rate was 88.8%, up 0.7%. Terminal production rates were mixed. Inventory increased in August. Spot and futures processing fees increased. New PTA plants were put into operation, but demand from the terminal and polyester sectors was weak [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 26 yuan to 4406 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 8 yuan to 4494 yuan, with a basis of 76 (0) yuan and a 9 - 1 spread of - 50 (- 4) yuan [24] - **Analysis**: The overall production rate was 68.4%, down 0.2%. The production rate of synthetic gas - based plants increased, while that of ethylene - based plants decreased. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. Downstream production rates were recovering from the off - season but were still at a low level. Import arrivals were expected to be 141,000 tons, and port inventory increased by 37,000 tons [24]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report believes that although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and the macro - environment is bearish, the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts are still good. It is a good opportunity for left - side layout, and the fundamentals will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - opens, the oil price will have more upside potential [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - WTI主力原油期货收跌0.92美元，跌幅1.44%，报63.08美元；布伦特主力原油期货收跌0.60美元，跌幅0.90%，报66.11美元；INE主力原油期货收涨5.80元，涨幅1.19%，报495.2元 [1] - 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据显示，汽油库存累库0.36百万桶至7.66百万桶，环比累库4.95%；柴油库存累库0.36百万桶至2.25百万桶，环比累库18.97%；燃料油库存累库0.10百万桶至9.70百万桶，环比累库0.05%；总成品油累库0.72百万桶至19.62百万桶，环比累库3.81% [1] Methanol - 8月12日09合约涨2元/吨，报2391元/吨，现货涨3元/吨，基差 - 14 [4] - 国内开工再度回落，企业利润维持高位，后续供应大概率边际走高；进口卸货速度增快但港口MTO装置停车，港口累库加快；内地受烯烃外采支撑企业库存去化，整体压力较小 [4] - 甲醇估值偏高，下游需求偏弱，价格面临压力，单边受整体商品情绪影响大，建议观望 [4] Urea - 8月12日09合约涨5元/吨，报1727元/吨，现货跌20元/吨，基差 - 17 [6] - 国内开工继续回落，企业利润处于低位，后续预计逐步见底回升，开工同比仍处中高位，整体供应宽松 [6] - 国内农业需求扫尾，进入淡季；复合肥开工因秋季肥生产持续回升，后续需求集中在复合肥和出口端；国内需求整体偏弱，企业库存去化缓慢，同比仍在中高位 [6] - 尿素整体估值偏低，继续回落空间有限，倾向于逢低关注多单等待潜在利多 [6] Rubber - 工业品整体上涨，NR和RU震荡反弹 [8] - 全钢轮胎开工率同比走高，截至2025年8月7日，山东轮胎企业全钢胎开工负荷为60.98%，较上周走低0.08个百分点，较去年同期走高8.72个百分点，国内走货慢但出口表现好；国内轮胎企业半钢胎开工负荷为74.53%，较上周走低0.10个百分点，较去年同期走低4.21个百分点，半钢轮胎工厂库存有压力 [9] - 截至2025年8月3日，中国天然橡胶社会库存128.9万吨，环比下降0.48万吨，降幅0.4%；中国深色胶社会总库存为80.4万吨，环比降0.13%；中国浅色胶社会总库存为48.5万吨，环比降0.8%；截至2025年8月4日，青岛天然橡胶库存50.12（ - 0.73）万吨 [10] - 现货方面，泰标混合胶14600（ + 50）元，STR20报1805（ + 10）美元，STR20混合1800（ + 10）美元，江浙丁二烯9300（ - 50）元，华北顺丁11500（0）元 [11] - 胶价短期涨幅大，宜中性思路，快进快出；多RU2601空RU2509择机波段操作 [11] PVC - PVC09合约上涨37元，报5047元，常州SG - 5现货价4910（ + 20）元/吨，基差 - 137（ - 17）元/吨，9 - 1价差 - 146（ + 2）元/吨 [11] - 成本端电石乌海报价2325（ - 15）元/吨，兰炭中料价格620（0）元/吨，乙烯825（ + 5）美元/吨，烧碱现货800（0）元/吨；PVC整体开工率79.5%，环比上升2.6%；其中电石法78.7%，环比上升2.6%；乙烯法81.5%，环比上升2.5% [11] - 需求端整体下游开工42.9%，环比上升0.8%；厂内库存33.7万吨（ - 0.8），社会库存77.7万吨（ + 5.4） [11] - 企业综合利润上升至年内高点，估值压力大，检修量减少，产量处五年期高位，短期多套装置投产，下游国内开工处五年期低位，出口方面印度反倾销政策延期，雨季末期可能抢出口，成本端电石企稳但难支撑估值；整体供强需弱且高估值，基本面差，需观察后续出口能否扭转国内累库格局，短期跟随黑色情绪反复，建议观望 [11] Styrene - 现货价格上涨，期货价格上涨，基差走弱；市场宏观情绪好，成本端有支撑，目前BZN价差处同期较低水平，向上修复空间大；成本端纯苯开工小幅回落但供应量偏多，供应端乙苯脱氢利润上涨，苯乙烯开工持续上行；苯乙烯港口库存持续大幅去库，季节性淡季需求端三S整体开工率震荡下降 [13][14] - 短期BZN或将修复，待港口库存高位去化后，苯乙烯价格或将跟随成本端震荡上行 [14] - 基本面方面，成本端华东纯苯6180元/吨，上涨20元/吨；苯乙烯现货7375元/吨，上涨50元/吨；苯乙烯活跃合约收盘价7322元/吨，上涨72元/吨；基差53元/吨，走弱22元/吨；BZN价差182元/吨，上涨5.5元/吨；EB非一体化装置利润 - 443.7元/吨，上涨54.2元/吨；EB连1 - 连2价差69元/吨，缩小19元/吨；供应端上游开工率77.7%，下降1.20%；江苏港口库存15.90万吨，去库0.50万吨；需求端三S加权开工率39.09%，下降0.85%；PS开工率55.00%，上涨1.70%，EPS开工率43.67%，下降10.58%，ABS开工率71.10%，上涨5.20% [14] Polyolefins Polyethylene - 期货价格上涨，市场期待中国财政部三季度利好政策，成本端有支撑，聚乙烯现货价格上涨，PE估值向下空间有限；贸易商库存高位震荡，对价格支撑松动，季节性淡季需求端农膜订单低位震荡，整体开工率震荡下行 [16] - 短期矛盾从成本端主导下跌行情转移至高检修助推库存去化，8月产能投放压力大，有110万吨产能投放计划，聚乙烯价格短期内由成本端及供应端博弈 [16] - 基本面看主力合约收盘价7329元/吨，上涨15元/吨，现货7300元/吨，上涨15元/吨，基差 - 29元/吨，无变动；上游开工83.44%，环比下降1.50%；周度库存方面，生产企业库存51.54万吨，环比累库8.26万吨，贸易商库存6.12万吨，环比累库0.34万吨；下游平均开工率38.9%，环比上涨0.16%；LL9 - 1价差 - 60元/吨，环比缩小10元/吨，建议空单继续持有 [16] Polypropylene - 期货价格下跌，山东地炼利润止跌反弹，开工率或将回升，丙烯供应边际回归；需求端下游开工率季节性震荡下行；8月聚丙烯仅存45万吨计划产能投放，季节性淡季供需双弱，成本端或将主导行情，预计7月聚丙烯价格跟随原油震荡偏强 [17] - 基本面看主力合约收盘价7091元/吨，下跌4元/吨，现货7110元/吨，无变动，基差19元/吨，走强4元/吨；上游开工78.22%，环比上涨0.56%；周度库存方面，生产企业库存58.71万吨，环比累库2.23万吨，贸易商库存18.73万吨，环比累库1.4万吨，港口库存6.11万吨，环比去库0.13万吨；下游平均开工率48.5%，环比上涨0.1%；LL - PP价差238元/吨，环比扩大19元/吨 [17] PX, PTA, and MEG PX - PX09合约上涨54元，报6832元，PX CFR下跌1美元，报834美元，按人民币中间价折算基差33元（ - 61），9 - 1价差84元（ + 18） [19] - PX负荷上，中国负荷82%，环比上升0.9%；亚洲负荷73.6%，环比上升0.2%；装置方面，盛虹、扬子石化负荷提升，威联石化重启，海外日本出光20万吨装置重启，韩国hanwha113万吨装置停车，SK40万吨装置重启 [19] - PTA负荷74.7%，环比上升2.1%，装置方面，台化装置一套重启一套停车，嘉兴石化重启，逸盛新材负荷恢复，英力士降负荷，威联石化重启 [19][21] - 进口方面，8月上旬韩国PX出口中国11.2万吨，同比下降0.5万吨；库存方面，6月底库存413.8万吨，月环比下降21万吨；估值成本方面，PXN为267美元（ + 6），石脑油裂差79美元（ - 5） [19][20] - PX负荷维持高位，下游PTA短期检修增加，整体负荷中枢下降，但因PTA新装置投产，PX有望持续去库，估值下方有支撑，但上方空间短期受限，终端及聚酯较弱压制上游估值；估值目前中性，关注旺季来临后跟随原油逢低做多机会 [20] PTA - PTA09合约上涨20元，报4726元，华东现货上涨5元，报4705元，基差 - 13元（ - 1），9 - 1价差 - 34元（ - 8） [21] - PTA负荷74.7%，环比上升2.1%，装置情况如上述；下游负荷88.8%，环比上升0.7%，装置整体变动小，部分化纤装置开工率适度提升；终端加弹负荷持平至70%，织机负荷下降2%至59% [21] - 库存方面，8月1日社会库存（除信用仓单）224万吨，环比累库3.5万吨；估值和成本方面，PTA现货加工费上涨9元，至201元，盘面加工费下跌16元，至244元 [21] - 供给端8月检修量增加但有新装置投产，预期持续累库，PTA加工费运行空间有限；需求端聚酯化纤库存压力下降，下游及终端即将结束淡季，需等待订单好转；估值方面，PXN在PTA投产格局改善下有支撑向上动力，但受终端和聚酯较弱景气度影响难走扩，关注旺季下游表现好转后跟随PX逢低做多机会 [21] MEG - EG09合约上涨18元，报4432元，华东现货上涨18元，报4502元，基差76元（ + 2），9 - 1价差 - 46元（ - 3） [22] - 供给端，乙二醇负荷68.4%，环比下降0.2%，其中合成气制75.1%，环比上升1.1%；乙烯制负荷64.4%，环比下降1%；合成气制装置方面，通辽金煤重启，山西沃能检修；油化工方面，三江负荷提升，浙石化负荷下降；海外方面，马来西亚装置、沙特sharq3停车 [22] - 下游负荷88.8%，环比上升0.7%，装置整体变动小，部分化纤装置开工率适度提升；终端加弹负荷持平至70%，织机负荷下降2%至59% [22] - 进口到港预报14.1万吨，华东出港8月11日0.86万吨，出库下降；港口库存55.3万吨，累库3.7万吨；估值和成本上，石脑油制利润为 - 299元，国内乙烯制利润 - 584元，煤制利润1051元；成本端乙烯持平至820美元，榆林坑口烟煤末价格下跌至520元 [22] - 产业基本面上，海内外检修装置逐渐开启，下游开工将从淡季恢复但高度偏低，预期港口库存去化放缓；估值同比偏高，检修季结束，基本面由强转弱，短期估值有下降压力 [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PX: ☆☆☆, implying a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆, meaning a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆, implying a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆, meaning a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The olefin - polyolefin market has mixed trends. Propylene has inventory and supply - side support, while polyolefin has limited upward drivers [2] - The pure benzene - styrene market shows different situations. Pure benzene has a slight recovery, and styrene has limited upward drivers due to cost and supply - demand contradictions [3] - The polyester industry has a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. Different products have different supply - demand and cost situations, and attention should be paid to oil price trends and demand recovery [4] - The coal - chemical industry has different trends in different regions for methanol, and urea is in the off - season with limited demand promotion [5] - The chlor - alkali industry has PVC with supply pressure and a weakening trend, and caustic soda with short - term supply reduction but long - term pressure [6] - The soda - glass industry has soda with emotional - driven short - term fluctuations and long - term supply pressure, and glass with cost support and attention to low - buying opportunities [7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Olefin - Polyolefin - Propylene futures opened higher and fluctuated widely. Enterprises' low inventory and shutdown benefits boosted prices. Downstream demand was mainly rigid [2] - Polyolefin futures fluctuated narrowly. Polyethylene supply changed little, and demand increased slightly. Polypropylene supply increased slightly due to new capacity, and demand was weak [2] 3.2 Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures prices recovered with the increase of domestic production, decrease of imports, and port de - stocking. It was suggested to conduct monthly spread band operations [3] - Styrene futures closed up, but cost support was weak, and supply - demand contradictions still existed, with limited upward drivers [3] 3.3 Polyester - The polyester industry chain moved up slightly. PTA supply - demand was weak, PX had a positive outlook in the third quarter, and attention should be paid to oil price and demand [4] - Ethylene glycol prices rebounded slightly, with increasing industry start - up and expected demand recovery. Medium - term attention was on demand [4] - Short fiber supply - demand was stable, and it was suggested to be long - allocated in the medium - term. Bottle chip orders improved, but capacity over - supply was a long - term pressure [4] 3.4 Coal - chemical - Methanol fluctuated narrowly. Coal price increase compressed profits in the northwest, and there were differences between inland and port supply - demand situations. Attention was on downstream demand [5] - Urea was in the agricultural off - season, with increasing compound fertilizer start - up but limited demand promotion. It was expected to fluctuate in a range [5] 3.5 Chlor - alkali - PVC had supply pressure and was expected to have a weakening trend. Caustic soda had short - term supply reduction but long - term supply pressure [6] 3.6 Soda - Glass - Soda was affected by environmental news, with emotional - driven short - term fluctuations and long - term supply pressure [7] - Glass had cost support, and it was suggested to consider low - buying near the cost [7]

1. Urea Core View The domestic urea futures market has shown a weak and volatile trend recently, mainly driven by the contradiction between supply and demand. The supply is sufficient, while the demand is weak, leading to a poor trading atmosphere in the spot market and pushing down the futures price [7]. Summary by Category - **Futures Prices**: On August 11, the 01 contract closed at 1751, unchanged from August 8; the 05 contract closed at 1790, up 6 or 0.34%; the 09 contract closed at 1722, down 6 or -0.35% [2]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was -39 on August 11, down 6 or -18.18% from August 8; the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was 68, up 12 or 21.43%; the spread between the 09 and 01 contracts was -29, down 6 or -26.09%; the spread between the UR and MA main contracts was -667, down 12 or -1.83% [3]. - **Main Positions**: The long positions of the top 20 increased by 1403 to 63621 on August 11, a rise of 2.25%; the short positions of the top 20 decreased by 966 to 69896, a decline of -1.36%; the long - short ratio was 0.91, up 0.03 or 3.67%; the unilateral trading volume was 102540, up 22267 or 27.74%; the number of Zhengshang Institute warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3623 [4]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of small - sized anthracite in Jincheng remained at 900 yuan/ton; the price of thermal coal at the pithead in Ejin Horo Banner increased by 10 to 525 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.94%; the price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port remained at 680 yuan/ton; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong remained at 2300 yuan/ton; the estimated fixed - bed production cost remained at 1430 yuan/ton; the estimated water - coal slurry production cost increased by 14 to 1155 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.23% [5]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The prices of small - sized urea in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan decreased by 30, 20, and 40 yuan/ton respectively, with declines of -1.70%, -1.21%, and -2.25%; the prices in Northeast China and Guangdong remained unchanged; the FOB price of small - sized urea in China and the FOB price of large - sized urea in the US Gulf remained unchanged [6]. - **Regional Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between Shandong and Henan, Guangdong and Henan, and Guangdong and Shanxi changed, and the basis in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan decreased, while the basis in Guangdong increased [7]. - **Downstream Products**: The price of melamine in Shandong increased by 70 to 5177 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.37%; the prices of 45% S and 45% CL compound fertilizers in Henan remained unchanged; the compound fertilizer - urea ratio increased by 0.04 to 1.57, a rise of 2.30% [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily domestic urea production increased by 0.20 to 19.21 million tons, a rise of 1.05%; the weekly domestic urea production decreased by 2.63 to 132.85 million tons, a decline of -1.94%; the weekly domestic urea plant - side inventory decreased by 2.97 to 88.76 million tons, a decline of -3.24%; the weekly domestic urea port inventory decreased by 1.00 to 48.30 million tons, a decline of -2.03% [7]. 2. Crude Oil Core View Recent oil prices have shown a weak and volatile trend. The main trading logic is the influence of geopolitical risks and marginal supply increments. The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin is the focus. The market is in a cautious wait - and - see attitude. In the medium - to - long term, the direction of oil prices depends on the negotiation results and inventory changes. There is no strong unilateral trend currently [9]. Summary by Category - **Oil Prices and Spreads**: On August 12, Brent crude oil was at 66.84 dollars/barrel, up 0.21 or 0.32%; WTI was at 64.13 dollars/barrel, up 0.17 or 0.27%; SC was at 494.00 yuan/barrel, up 1.50 or 0.30%. Spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 also changed [9]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, ICE Gasoil and their month - to - month spreads changed on August 12 compared with August 11 [9]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of various refined oil products in the US, Europe, and Singapore changed on August 12 compared with August 11 [9]. 3. PVC and Caustic Soda Core View The caustic soda market is expected to be neutral to weak in the later stage, and the PVC market faces great supply - demand pressure, but attention should be paid to the boost of coking coal prices on PVC [19]. Summary by Category - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On August 11, the prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda, Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda, and various PVC futures contracts changed compared with August 8 [14]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China decreased by 10 to 390 dollars/ton, a decline of -2.5%; the export profit increased by 22.7 to 142.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 19.0%. The overseas quotes of PVC remained unchanged, and the export profit increased by 87.9 to 30.3 yuan/ton, a rise of 152.5% [15][16]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate and the PVC total operating rate increased, while the profits of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC and northwest integrated PVC decreased [17]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of caustic soda downstream industries such as alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing changed slightly; the operating rates of PVC downstream products such as pipes, profiles, and the pre - sales volume of PVC decreased [18][19]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of liquid caustic soda in East China and Shandong increased, the upstream plant - side inventory of PVC decreased, and the total social inventory of PVC increased [19]. 4. Polyolefins Core View The supply of PP and PE has different trends, and the demand is expected to improve in the peak season. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the inventories in the middle and upstream are being depleted. There is no major supply - demand contradiction [23]. Summary by Category - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 11, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, PP2509 and their spreads, as well as the spot prices of East China PP drawstrings, North China LLDPE film materials, and their basis changed compared with August 8 [23]. - **PE and PP Standard Prices**: The prices of various PE and PP products in East China changed on August 11 compared with the previous period [23]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates and Inventories**: The operating rates of PE and PP plants and their downstream industries changed, and the inventories of PE and PP enterprises and traders increased [23]. 5. Pure Benzene - Styrene Core View In the short term, pure benzene prices are relatively well - supported, but the rebound space is limited. Styrene's fundamentals are weak, but the downward space is also restricted. Specific trading strategies are provided for both [26]. Summary by Category - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On August 11, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, CFR China pure benzene, and their spreads changed compared with August 8 [26]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene in East China, EB futures contracts, and their spreads, as well as the cash flows and import profits changed [26]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of phenol, caprolactam, aniline, EPS, PS, ABS and other downstream products changed [26]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased, and the operating rates of various industries in the pure benzene and styrene产业链 changed [26]. 6. Methanol Core View The methanol market is affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand. The 09 contract has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation, while the 01 contract has seasonal and supply - reduction expectations. Specific trading strategies are provided [30]. Summary by Category - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 8, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 decreased, and the MA91 spread, Taicang basis, and regional spreads changed compared with August 7 [30]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3 to 29.3688%, a decline of -9.50%; the methanol port inventory increased by 12 to 92.5 million tons, a rise of 14.48%; the methanol social inventory increased by 8.6 to 121.9%, a rise of 7.61% [30]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream domestic enterprises and some downstream industries changed on August 8 compared with the previous period [30]. 7. Polyester Industry Chain Core View The supply - demand situations of PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip are different, and corresponding trading strategies are provided for each [59]. Summary by Category - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On August 11, the prices of POY, FDY, DTY, polyester chips, polyester bottle - chips, and their cash flows changed compared with August 8 [59]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of CFR China PX, PX futures contracts, and their spreads, as well as the PX basis and processing spreads changed [59]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PTA, PTA futures contracts, and their basis, processing spreads, and operating rates changed [59]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of MEG, MEG futures contracts, and their basis, spreads, and cash flows changed [59]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain such as PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products changed [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The current oil price has been relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain favorable. It is a good opportunity for left - side layout. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [3]. - For methanol, the valuation is still high, downstream demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see or short it within the sector when the price is high [5]. - For urea, although the current domestic demand is weak, the overall valuation is low, and the room for further decline is limited. It is advisable to go long at low prices and wait for potential positive factors [7]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is recommended for the short - term high - rising rubber price, with quick in - and - out operations. One can also consider a band - trading strategy of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [11]. - For PVC, the supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high. The fundamentals are poor, and it is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation. The price may decline significantly after the anti - involution sentiment fades [11]. - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair in the short term. After the high - level port inventory is reduced, the styrene price may oscillate upwards following the cost side [13][14]. - For polyethylene, the short - term price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side. It is recommended to hold short positions [16]. - For polypropylene, the cost side will likely dominate the market, and the price is expected to follow the oil price and oscillate upwards [17]. - For PX, the load remains high, and it is expected to continue de - stocking. The valuation has support at the bottom but limited upside in the short term. One can consider going long following the oil price when the peak season arrives [19][20]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue building up inventory, and the processing fee has limited room for operation. One can consider going long following PX when the downstream performance improves in the peak season [21]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals will turn from strong to weak, and the short - term valuation may decline [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI crude oil futures rose $0.65, or 1.03%, to $64; Brent crude oil futures rose $0.39, or 0.59%, to $66.71; INE crude oil futures fell 0.40 yuan, or 0.08%, to 489.4 yuan [1]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil arrival inventory increased by 1.37 million barrels to 207.19 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 0.67%; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.10 million barrels to 91.96 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 1.21%; diesel commercial inventory increased by 2.77 million barrels to 105.56 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 2.70%; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 3.87 million barrels to 197.51 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 2.00% [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the 09 contract rose 6 yuan/ton to 2389 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 6 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 15 [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic production has declined again, but corporate profits remain high. Future supply is likely to increase marginally. Port inventory is building up faster, while inland corporate inventory is decreasing. The valuation is high, and downstream demand is weak [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the 09 contract fell 6 yuan/ton to 1722 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 8 [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic production continues to decline, and corporate profits are at a low level but expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively abundant, and domestic agricultural demand is ending. Future demand will mainly come from compound fertilizers and exports [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU oscillated and rebounded [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Bulls expect price increases due to seasonal factors, demand expectations, and potential production cuts, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal low demand, and less - than - expected production cuts [9]. - **Industry Conditions**: As of August 7, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 60.98%, down 0.08 percentage points from the previous week but up 8.72 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.53%, down 0.10 percentage points from the previous week and 4.21 percentage points from the same period last year. The inventory of semi - steel tire factories is under pressure [10]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 17 yuan to 5010 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4890 yuan/ton, the basis was - 120 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 148 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall operating rate was 79.5%, up 2.6% week - on - week. The downstream operating rate was 42.9%, up 0.8% week - on - week. Factory inventory was 33.7 million tons (- 0.8), and social inventory was 77.7 million tons (+ 5.4). The supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The macro - market sentiment is positive, and the cost side provides support. The BZN spread is at a low level and has room for upward repair. The port inventory is decreasing significantly, and the demand in the off - season is weak [13][14]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: The market expects favorable policies from the Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side provides support. The inventory of traders is at a high level, and the demand is in the off - season. There is a large capacity - release pressure in August [16]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. The demand is in the off - season, and there is limited capacity - release in August. The cost side is expected to dominate the market [17]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 52 yuan to 6778 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 4 dollars to 835 dollars [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: The load in China and Asia increased. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. The import volume from South Korea decreased. The inventory decreased in June, and the valuation cost decreased [19][20]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 22 yuan to 4706 yuan, and the spot price in East China rose 30 yuan to 4700 yuan [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: The load increased, and some plants had load adjustments. The downstream load increased slightly, and terminal load was stable or decreased. The inventory increased in early August, and the processing fee had different trends [21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 30 yuan to 4414 yuan, and the spot price in East China rose 19 yuan to 4484 yuan [22]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall load decreased slightly, with different trends in synthetic gas and ethylene - based production. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. The downstream load increased slightly, and terminal load was stable or decreased. The port inventory increased, and the valuation and cost had different trends [22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - Olefins - Polyolefins: The futures of olefins rose slightly, with some PDH plants restarting and a major Shandong plant planning maintenance, supporting supply. Propylene producers were eager to raise prices. Polyolefins futures remained in a low - level range. PE had limited supply changes and moderate demand growth, with limited upward momentum. PP supply increased slightly due to new capacity, and demand was weak [2]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: Oil prices weakened, and pure benzene futures fluctuated. The spot price in East China rose slightly, and the far - month price was weak. Downstream备货 willingness improved, and port inventory decreased slightly. Styrene futures were weak, with weak cost support and ongoing supply - demand contradictions [3]. - Polyester: Affected by the weekend's strong filament sales, PX and PTA prices rebounded. PTA supply was still weak, and PX was expected to improve in the third quarter. Ethylene glycol prices rebounded, with increasing production but also expectations of reduced imports and rising demand. Short fiber had stable supply - demand, and bottle chip had low processing margins and long - term over - capacity pressure [5]. - Coal Chemicals: Methanol prices fluctuated narrowly, with expected increases in imports and different inventory trends in coastal and inland areas. Urea prices followed the market sentiment down, with weak agricultural demand and limited improvement from compound fertilizers. PVC was expected to be weak due to high production and low demand. Caustic soda was strong in the short - term but faced long - term supply pressure [6]. - Soda Ash - Glass: Soda ash prices were under pressure, with continued inventory accumulation and high supply. Glass prices were expected to be supported by cost, with improved processing orders but still weak compared to the same period last year [7]. Summary by Sections Olefins - Polyolefins - Futures of olefins rose slightly, with some PDH plants restarting and a major Shandong plant planning maintenance, supporting supply. Propylene producers were eager to raise prices [2]. - Polyolefins futures remained in a low - level range. PE had limited supply changes and moderate demand growth, with limited upward momentum. PP supply increased slightly due to new capacity, and demand was weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Oil prices weakened, and pure benzene futures fluctuated. The spot price in East China rose slightly, and the far - month price was weak. Downstream备货 willingness improved, and port inventory decreased slightly [3] - Styrene futures were weak, with weak cost support and ongoing supply - demand contradictions [3] Polyester - Affected by the weekend's strong filament sales, PX and PTA prices rebounded. PTA supply was still weak, and PX was expected to improve in the third quarter [5] - Ethylene glycol prices rebounded, with increasing production but also expectations of reduced imports and rising demand. Short fiber had stable supply - demand, and bottle chip had low processing margins and long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol prices fluctuated narrowly, with expected increases in imports and different inventory trends in coastal and inland areas [6] - Urea prices followed the market sentiment down, with weak agricultural demand and limited improvement from compound fertilizers [6] - PVC was expected to be weak due to high production and low demand. Caustic soda was strong in the short - term but faced long - term supply pressure [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices were under pressure, with continued inventory accumulation and high supply [7] - Glass prices were expected to be supported by cost, with improved processing orders but still weak compared to the same period last year [7]

Investment Rating of the Report The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are trending upward with strong performance, influenced by the risk - aversion sentiment due to the implementation of reciprocal tariffs by the US. The potential US tariff on Swiss gold imports has significantly increased the premium of COMEX gold over London gold. The short - term trend of the US dollar is weak. The US stock index futures face the need for more data to verify the intensification of economic downward pressure, and there is a risk of correction at the current level. The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the upward rhythm is relatively tortuous. For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international situations [14][19][23][31]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US allows 401(k) investors to invest in alternative assets. Trump nominates a new Fed governor. China's gold reserves increased by 1.86 tons in July. Gold prices are trending upward, and there are arbitrage opportunities due to the widening regional price difference [12][13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Miran is nominated as a Fed governor by Trump. The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump nominates Stephen Miran as a Fed governor. The risk in the job market has increased, and inflation expectations have risen in July. The possibility of a Fed rate cut within the year has increased in the short term, but the long - term independence of the Fed is affected. Attention should be paid to the risk of correction [21][22][23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's import and export data in July exceeded expectations. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [25][27][28]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. China's import and export data in July exceeded expectations. The sustainability of strong export growth is questionable. The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the upward rhythm is tortuous, and the timing of going long should be carefully grasped [29][30][31]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - China imported 1166.6 million tons of soybeans in July. ANEC expects Brazil to export 815 million tons of soybeans in August. US soybean exports were better than expected, and CBOT soybeans stopped falling and stabilized. The supply in China may tighten in the fourth quarter if no US soybeans are purchased. The operating center of soybean meal futures prices is expected to move up [33][35][37]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - China imported 53.4 million tons of edible vegetable oil in July. The oil market is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillating trend. It is not recommended to enter the market today, and existing long positions can be held [39]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The excavator monthly operation rate in July was 56.7%. The inventory of five major steel products increased this week, suppressing the market. Steel prices are driven by policies, but it is difficult for spot prices to rise. It is recommended to be cautious about market rallies [40][41][42]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of the corn starch industry increased, and inventory accumulated again. The supply - demand situation does not support the strengthening of the rice - flour price difference, and the regional price difference may be unfavorable to the 09 contract [44][45]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The northern port inventory is similar to that of the same period last year. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased, and consumption slightly increased. It is recommended to hold new - crop short positions and pay attention to the weather [47][48][49]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market was strong on August 7. The coal price is expected to remain strong in the short term, but it is difficult to continue to rebound. Attention should be paid to the change in daily consumption in mid - August [49]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - China imported 10462.3 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates in July. The ore price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [50][51]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - India's cotton planting area in the 25/26 season is 1058.7 million hectares. Vietnamese textile enterprises have weak restocking intentions. Textile and clothing exports declined in July. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to have limited room for further decline in the short term and may rebound [52][53][54]. 2.9 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The online auction price of coking coal in Jinzhong Lingshi market increased. The coking coal market has strong speculation sentiment due to policy and inspection factors, and the impact on the fundamentals depends on further policies [58][59]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A large - scale alumina enterprise in Guangxi postponed the maintenance of a roasting furnace to August 16. The alumina futures price is expected to be weakly oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see [60][61]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Jingao's project is under pre - approval publicity. The spot transaction price has increased, and the polysilicon price is expected to operate between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton in the short term. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [62][63][64]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.7 million tons. The supply may increase slightly in August, and the balance sheet may still show inventory reduction. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton [65][67]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - China's copper import volume increased in July. A copper mine accident in Chile affected production. The macro - sentiment is favorable to copper prices in the short term, but inventory accumulation suppresses the market. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy [68][70][71]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreased by 240 tons on August 7. The nickel price is difficult to decline deeply in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities at high prices [73][74][75]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Australia will invest in a lithium project. The demand is strong in August, and the supply risk remains. It is recommended to wait and see before the risk event is resolved and take profit on the 9 - 11 reverse arbitrage [76][77]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Pan American Silver's lead concentrate production increased in the second quarter. The lead price has cost support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage [78][79]. 2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Pan American Silver's zinc concentrate production increased in the second quarter. The zinc price may continue to rise in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity [80][81][82]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - China's LPG weekly commodity volume increased slightly, and the inventory situation changed. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to the behavior of factory warehouses [83][84]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emission) - The CEA price is oscillating. It is recommended to buy on dips cautiously for enterprises with quota demand [85][86]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased, and the inventory increased. The downward space of caustic soda is limited [87][88][89]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable. The pulp market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [91]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market is locally weak. The PVC price is expected to oscillate in the short term due to cost support from coal [92][93]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - PX supply may increase, and PTA is in a loss. PX may accumulate inventory in August - September, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [93][94]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been adjusted locally. The downstream is still in the off - season, and the PTA market is expected to oscillate in the short term [95][96][97]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene device of Jingbo has produced qualified products. The styrene market is expected to oscillate at the current price [99]. 2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased. In the medium term, a strategy of short - selling at high prices can be considered for soda ash [100]. 2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers increased. The glass price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to be cautious in single - side trading and focus on arbitrage [101][102]. 2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - China's import and export data from January to July was released. The container freight rate is expected to be weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [103][104].

Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside, and a short - term target price of WTI at $70.4/barrel is given. It is recommended to go long at low prices and take profits, and to position for the Russian geopolitical expectations in September and the hurricane - induced supply disruption season when oil prices drop significantly [2]. - Methanol's valuation is still high, downstream demand is weak, and prices face pressure. It can be considered as a short - position variety within the sector [4]. - Urea's overall valuation is low, and the room for further decline is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to going long at low prices and wait for potential positive factors [6]. - For natural rubber, after a significant decline, the price rebounds. A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy with quick entry and exit is recommended, and a long - short spread trading between RU2601 and RU2509 can be considered [10]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - For benzene - ethylene, the BZN spread is expected to repair, and after the high - level port inventory is reduced, the price may follow the cost side to fluctuate upward [13]. - For polyethylene, the price in the short - term will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - For polypropylene, the cost side will dominate the market, and the price in July is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil [16]. - For PX, it is recommended to pay attention to short - term long - position opportunities following crude oil at low prices [19]. - For PTA, it is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX at low prices [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the short - term valuation has a downward pressure [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.45, a 0.70% decline, at $63.82; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.55, an 0.82% decline, at $66.41; INE main crude oil futures closed down 4.90 yuan, a 0.97% decline, at 501 yuan [1]. - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.26 million barrels to 13.01 million barrels, a 2.02% increase; diesel inventories increased by 0.22 million barrels to 8.67 million barrels, a 2.54% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 1.65 million barrels to 26.32 million barrels, a 6.69% increase; total refined oil inventories increased by 2.12 million barrels to 48.00 million barrels, a 4.63% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 7, the 09 contract fell 8 yuan/ton to 2388 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 6 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 6 [4]. - **Analysis**: Domestic methanol production resumed its decline this week, but corporate profits remained high. Future supply is likely to increase marginally. Port inventories are increasing faster due to faster unloading and shutdown of port MTO units. Inland inventories are decreasing due to olefin procurement, with relatively low pressure [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 7, the 09 contract fell 13 yuan/ton to 1737 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of + 42 [6]. - **Analysis**: Domestic urea production continued to decline, and corporate profits were still at a low level but are expected to bottom out and rebound. Overall supply is relatively abundant. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and subsequent demand will mainly come from compound fertilizers and exports. Current domestic demand is weak, and inventory reduction is slow [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded and then fluctuated [8]. - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to rubber production cuts, and the price usually turns upward in the second half of the year. Bears think that macro - expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected. As of August 7, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 60.98%, down 0.08 percentage points from last week but up 8.72 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.53%, down 0.10 percentage points from last week and 4.21 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel tire factories have inventory pressure [9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 5 yuan to 5046 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4910 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 136 (- 5) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 126 (+ 12) yuan/ton [10]. - **Analysis**: The cost of calcium carbide increased, the overall operating rate of PVC was 76.8%, up 0.05%. The downstream operating rate was 42.1%, up 0.2%. Factory inventories were 34.5 (+ 1.2) million tons, and social inventories were 72.2 (+ 3.9) million tons. The overall situation is strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory accumulation pattern [10]. Benzene - Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices of benzene - ethylene rose, and the basis strengthened [12]. - **Analysis**: The macro - market sentiment is good, and there is still support on the cost side. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with a large upward repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the operating rate of benzene - ethylene continues to rise. Port inventories are decreasing significantly, and the short - term BZN spread is expected to repair [12][13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene fell [15]. - **Analysis**: The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is still cost support. The spot price remained unchanged, and the valuation has limited downward space. Trade inventories are at a high level and have a weak supporting effect on prices. In August, there is a large planned production capacity release. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene fell [16]. - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover. The downstream operating rate is seasonally declining. In August, there is only a small planned production capacity release. Under the background of weak supply and demand, the cost side will dominate the market, and the price in July is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 38 yuan to 6756 yuan, and PX CFR fell 4 dollars to 840 dollars. The basis was 152 (- 1) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 46 (- 4) yuan [18]. - **Analysis**: PX operating rates in China and Asia increased. Some PTA units had short - term maintenance, but PTA inventories are low, and the negative feedback pressure on PX is small. New PTA units are being put into production, and PX is expected to continue to reduce inventories. The current valuation is at a neutral level [18][19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 36 yuan to 4688 yuan, the East China spot price rose 20 yuan to 4690 yuan, the basis was - 20 (+ 1) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 38 (- 8) yuan [20]. - **Analysis**: The PTA operating rate increased. Downstream operating rates also increased slightly. Supply is expected to increase due to new unit launches, but demand from the polyester and terminal sectors is about to end the off - season. The inventory level is low, and the negative feedback pressure is small [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 18 yuan to 4396 yuan, the East China spot price fell 5 yuan to 4486 yuan, the basis was 73 (- 7) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 34 (- 13) yuan [21]. - **Analysis**: The production of ethylene glycol decreased slightly. Downstream operating rates increased slightly. Import arrivals are expected to increase, and port inventories are expected to gradually increase. The current valuation is relatively high compared to the same period, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken [21].

Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Current oil price decline is driven by OPEC+ production increase, and supply-demand logic will dominate oil price trends in the short term. Suggest trading in a band, with support levels for WTI at [63, 64], Brent at [66, 67], and SC at [495, 505]. Consider capturing volatility contraction opportunities in the options market [2]. - **Pure Benzene**: In the short term, pure benzene is expected to fluctuate weakly. The BZ2603 contract should follow the trends of oil prices and styrene [5]. - **Styrene**: In the short term, styrene is expected to fluctuate weakly. Consider closing short positions in EB09 and look for opportunities to short at high prices [5]. - **Methanol**: MA09 is expected to accumulate inventory, while MA01 has seasonal demand and potential supply reduction from Iranian plants. Consider buying MA01 at low prices [30]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is in a weak state. It is expected that the number of warehouse receipts in the main production areas will increase in August. Consider holding short positions at high prices [40]. - **PVC**: The PVC market is under pressure, with increasing inventory and weak demand. Future prices are likely to continue to decline [40]. - **Polyolefins**: In August, there is pressure on inventory accumulation. However, there is potential for restocking in the seasonal peak season. Consider closing short positions at 7200 - 7300 and continue to hold LP01 [44]. - **Urea**: In the short term, the urea market is dominated by bullish sentiment. There is a game between positive factors such as the Indian tender and negative factors such as the off - peak agricultural demand [52]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip markets are all affected by supply - demand relationships and oil prices. They are expected to fluctuate in certain ranges, and corresponding trading strategies are provided [56]. Summaries by Catalog Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 7, Brent was at $66.92, WTI at $64.41, and SC at 502.10 yuan/barrel. Some spreads such as Brent - WTI and EFS decreased, while others like WTI M1 - M3 and SC M1 - M3 increased [2]. - **EIA Data**: As of August 1, US crude oil production was 1328.4万桶/日, refinery utilization rate was 96.9%, and commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 302.9万桶 [60]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, the price of pure benzene and related products changed. For example, the pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 4.9%. Styrene prices also had minor fluctuations [5]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports decreased, and the开工 rates of related industries had different changes [5]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, MA2601 closed at 2503, MA2509 at 2396. The MA91 spread decreased by 7.00% [28]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 9.50%, while port inventory increased by 14.48% [29]. Caustic Soda and PVC - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained unchanged, and the price of PVC in East China increased slightly [35]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry's开工率 increased, while the PVC total开工率 decreased. The demand for caustic soda and PVC downstream industries was weak [38][39][40]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, L2601 closed at 7382, PP2601 at 7120. Some spreads such as L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 changed [44]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased, and the开工 rates of related devices decreased [44]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, the price of urea in various regions increased slightly. The futures prices of different contracts decreased [52]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased slightly, and factory inventory decreased by 3.24% [52]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 6, the prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha decreased, and the prices of downstream polyester products had different changes [56]. - **开工率**: The开工 rates of PX, PTA, and other industries had different degrees of change [56].