Core Viewpoint - Shanghai has released a three-year action plan to support the transformation and upgrading of advanced manufacturing, aiming to add 100 enterprises with an annual output value exceeding 1 billion yuan by 2028, totaling over 600, and to drive the addition of 500 new large-scale industrial enterprises in the supply chain, while significantly increasing the proportion of R&D expenses in revenue [2][3][7]. Group 1: Main Goals - By 2028, the plan aims to add 100 manufacturing enterprises with an annual output value exceeding 1 billion yuan, totaling over 600, and to drive the addition of 500 new large-scale industrial enterprises in the supply chain [7]. Group 2: Implementation Actions - **Optimizing Traditional Advantage Industries**: The plan encourages petrochemical companies to reduce oil dependency and develop new functional materials, while supporting steel and non-ferrous metal companies to strengthen specialty steel and expand lightweight alloys [8]. - **Accelerating Leading Industry Strategies**: Support for integrated circuit companies to focus on equipment, advanced processes, and materials, aiming to cultivate internationally competitive leading enterprises [8]. - **Promoting Key and Emerging Industries**: The plan emphasizes the development of new-generation electronic information, smart connected vehicles, high-end equipment, and green low-carbon industries [9]. Group 3: Innovation and Technology - **Releasing Innovation Vitality**: The plan supports enterprises to increase basic research investment, providing financial subsidies based on the amount of R&D expenditure [9]. - **Accelerating Core Technology Breakthroughs**: Focus on supporting enterprises in laser manufacturing, quantum technology, and new functional materials to conduct foundational research [10]. Group 4: Quality and Efficiency Enhancement - **Promoting Technological Transformation**: Support for enterprises to upgrade production, R&D, and design processes, with financial support for fixed asset investment loans [10]. - **Deepening Digital Transformation**: The plan includes initiatives for AI integration in manufacturing, aiming for large enterprises to achieve full digital application coverage by 2027 [10]. Group 5: Resource and Support Actions - **Strengthening Talent Development**: The plan supports enterprises in attracting high-level talent, providing priority recommendations for national and local talent cultivation programs [11]. - **Enhancing Financial Support**: Focus on promoting low-interest, high-amount, and long-term loan products for manufacturing enterprises, with interest subsidies for key component and raw material loans [12]. - **Expanding Logistics Support**: The plan aims to build industrial logistics and warehousing facilities to integrate logistics with manufacturing [12].

Core Viewpoint - As of the end of 2025, the northbound capital has shifted its focus towards hard technology and non-ferrous metals industries, with ten industries having a market value of over 100 billion yuan [1][7]. Industry Summary - The top three industries by market value held by northbound capital at the end of 2025 are: - Power Equipment: 449.5 billion yuan, a 60.04% increase from 2024 [3][7]. - Electronics: 387 billion yuan, an 85.02% increase from 2024 [3][7]. - Non-ferrous Metals: 185.6 billion yuan, a 173.04% increase from 2024 [3][7]. - Other industries with significant holdings include: - Banking: 217.6 billion yuan, a 56.45% increase [3]. - Machinery: 98.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.49% [3]. - Pharmaceuticals: 148.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.52% [4]. Major Holdings - The top ten stocks held by northbound capital at the end of 2025 include: - Ningde Times: 254.3 billion yuan, a 76.57% increase [5][8]. - Midea Group: 77 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.99% [5][8]. - Kweichow Moutai: 75.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.82% [5][8]. - China Merchants Bank: 51.4 billion yuan, a 2.92% increase [5][8]. - Zijin Mining: 47.1 billion yuan, a 120.18% increase [5][8]. - Notable changes in the top ten include: - Northern Huachuang, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Lixun Precision entering the list, while Longjiang Power, Mindray Medical, and BYD dropped out [8].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend driven by leveraged funds and retail investors, with significant contributions from speculative and foreign capital, leading to a notable increase in market risk appetite [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - During the first week of January 2026, the A-share market saw a substantial increase, with the Wind All A Index rising by 5.1% and the average daily trading volume surging over 700 billion yuan to 2.85 trillion yuan [1]. - The financing balance reached a historical high of 2.61 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.53% of the total A-share market capitalization, placing it in the 96th percentile historically since 2021 [3][10]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Retail investor sentiment has significantly improved, with net inflows of 155.7 billion yuan, marking the second-highest level in the past year [3][15]. - The activity of speculative funds has also increased, with an average daily trading volume of 31.4 billion yuan on the Long Hu List, reaching a six-month peak [3][17]. Group 3: Foreign Investment - Foreign capital has shown a renewed interest, with the average daily trading volume of the Stock Connect increasing by 98.6 billion yuan to 327.2 billion yuan, representing an increase of 0.73 percentage points in trading volume share [3][19]. - Passive foreign capital has turned into a slight net inflow of 6.7 million dollars, indicating a stronger attraction towards technology sectors [3][23]. Group 4: Macro Liquidity - The central bank's significant net withdrawal of 166 billion yuan has not tightened market liquidity, as interbank market interest rates have declined, maintaining a loose monetary environment [6][8]. - The RMB exchange rate appreciated to 6.98 against the US dollar, with the 2-year and 10-year China-US interest rate differentials narrowing [9]. Group 5: ETF Market Dynamics - The ETF market has shown structural divergence, with a slight net outflow of 390 million yuan from stock ETFs, while industry-themed ETFs attracted a net inflow of 13.6 billion yuan [25][26]. - Broad-based ETFs faced significant net outflows, particularly from the CSI A500-related ETFs, which saw a redemption of 13.1 billion yuan [25].

Market Overview - In 2025, the A-share market experienced a comprehensive recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3968.84 points, the ChiNext Index rising by 49.57%, the CSI 300 increasing by 17.66%, the CSI 500 up by 30.39%, and the STAR 50 gaining 35.92% [1] - The most notable performance was in precious metals, with gold and silver entering a historic bull market, leading all asset classes. London spot gold rose by 64.56% throughout the year, nearing $4600 per ounce, while London spot silver surged by 147.79% [1] Precious Metals and Base Metals Cycle - Historical patterns indicate that after gold and silver, base metals like copper and aluminum may enter a super cycle. The sequence of price increases typically follows: gold, silver, copper, aluminum, oil, gas, and agricultural products [2] - By the end of 2025, gold had increased over 60%, closing around $4320 per ounce, while silver prices saw significant increases, particularly in December, breaking through key price levels [2] - International investment banks are bullish on copper and aluminum for 2026, citing a lack of large mining projects coming online and the decline of older mines. Demand is also expected to rise from sectors like AI infrastructure, electric vehicles, and the photovoltaic industry [2] Investment Products in Base Metals - Investment products related to base metals can be categorized into two main types: those that include stocks or ETFs related to base metals and public mutual funds focused on base metals. Unlike precious metals, these products do not directly invest in physical metals [3] - Base metal index funds can be further divided into those tracking stock indices and those tracking futures indices. Examples include the "Wanjia CSI Industrial Base Metals Theme ETF" and "Guotai CSI Base Metals Theme ETF," which invest in stocks of companies related to gold, copper, aluminum, lithium, cobalt, and rare metals [4] Performance of Base Metal Funds - Recent performance data for base metal ETFs shows significant gains, with the "Wanjia CSI Industrial Base Metals Theme ETF" up by 98.20%, "Guotai CSI Base Metals Theme ETF" up by 82.96%, and others also showing strong returns [6] - Some bank wealth management products also allocate a portion of their holdings to precious and base metals to enhance returns, although these products carry higher risks compared to pure bond products [8] Practical Investment Tips - Investors are advised to consider their risk tolerance when investing in precious and base metals. For those with a preference for stability, bank wealth management products may be suitable, while those with higher risk tolerance might explore mining stocks and related funds [9] - In the context of base metals, investors should be cautious about chasing high prices and consider the volatility of silver, platinum, and palladium. It is recommended to select products that hold ETFs related to gold and base metals for more stable investment [10]

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant capital inflows into various stocks, highlighting investor interest in specific sectors such as power equipment, communication devices, and gaming [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Capital Inflows - TBEA (特变电工) saw a capital inflow of 1.846 billion, with a price increase of 10.01% [2] - Haige Communication (海格通信) experienced a capital inflow of 1.661 billion, with a price increase of 10% [2] - ZQ Game (掌趣科技) had a capital inflow of 0.791 billion, with a notable price increase of 14.91% [2] - Yonyou Network (用友网络) attracted 0.768 billion in capital, with a price increase of 7.87% [2] - Shanghai Construction (上海建工) received 0.603 billion, with a price increase of 10.14% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The power equipment sector, represented by TBEA, shows strong investor confidence with significant capital inflows [2] - The communication device sector, including Haige Communication and Lian Te Technology (联特科技), also reflects positive investor sentiment [2][3] - The gaming industry, represented by ZQ Game and Century Huaman (世纪华通), demonstrates robust growth potential with substantial capital inflows [2][3] - The education sector, represented by Zhonggong Education (中公教育), shows a healthy capital inflow of 0.508 billion, indicating investor interest [2] - The energy metal sector, represented by Ganfeng Lithium (赣锋锂业) and Tianqi Lithium (天齐锂业), continues to attract investment, reflecting ongoing demand in the market [2][3]

消息面上，中国有色矿业公告，谦比希东南矿体主、副井于2025年12月完成修复工作，修复效果符合预 期，该矿山已于2026年1月1日正式复产。2026年，公司预计综合铜产量约48.4万吨，其中阴极铜约13.4 万吨，粗铜/阳极铜约35万吨。 智通财经APP获悉，中国有色矿业(01258)尾盘涨近5%，截至发稿，涨4.83%，报15.63港元，成交额3.08 亿港元。 值得注意的是，中国有色矿业上月发布公告称，拟进一步收购SM Minerals公司55%的股份，对应股份 为6.47万股，交易对价为8900万美元。此次收购完成后，该公司将合计持有SM Minerals 70%股份。该 公司是一间于哈萨克斯坦注册成立的公司，主要从事铜的开采和富集，其中本卡拉北矿区拥有约150万 吨铜资源。 ...

Group 1 - The core market performance shows that 29 out of 31 primary industries received net financing inflows, with the computer industry leading in net inflow amounts [1] - Over two thousand stocks experienced net financing inflows, with more than a hundred stocks having net inflows exceeding 100 million, and 22 stocks surpassing 300 million in net inflows [1] Group 2 - The determination of market highs and lows is primarily influenced by the trading intentions of institutional investors, which can be assessed through actual trading behaviors [6] - Quantitative data can reveal the true participation levels of institutional investors, helping to avoid misjudgments based solely on price movements [6][15] - The analysis of trading behavior through quantitative data can clarify that apparent price rebounds may not be supported by institutional participation, indicating that perceived lows may not be genuine [12][15] Group 3 - The use of quantitative big data allows for a more objective understanding of market conditions, helping to establish a rational perspective and avoid the pitfalls of emotional trading [15]

Group 1 - The report maintains a bullish outlook on A-shares, commodities, and gold, indicating that the expected changes continue to favor risk assets as domestic fundamental concerns ease and risk evaluations decline [7][51] - A-share style and industry allocation focus on mid-cap blue chips, with small and micro-cap stocks potentially having a catch-up opportunity, highlighting sectors such as non-ferrous metals, media, defense, chemicals, and electronics [7][51] - The report emphasizes the continued strength of trends in A-shares, gold, and commodities, while noting a slight increase in medium-term uncertainty for commodities [31][51] Group 2 - Recent macroeconomic events impacting asset prices include a rise in CPI and a narrowing decline in PPI, alleviating concerns about the domestic economic downturn [19][21] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data indicates weak demand, with a drop in new jobs and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate, suggesting that the labor market remains fragile [23][26] - Adjustments to export tax rebate policies for various products, including solar energy and battery products, are expected to enhance China's competitive advantage in industries with high energy consumption and pollution [27] Group 3 - The report highlights the significant outperformance of CTA strategies, with the highest return reaching 7.45%, while other strategy categories lagged behind [14] - A-share market sentiment has shown a short-term increase, while medium-term risks remain stable, with fluctuations in various asset classes indicating changes in trading sentiment [36][40] - The report notes that the trends in non-ferrous metals and defense industries are strong, with both short-term sentiment and medium-term uncertainty rising [34][44]

再推【钼】：海外军备或大幅扩张，22 年行情有望复现 20260112 摘要 钼价受供需关系影响显著，近期虽因南美进口矿超预期增加及钢厂盈利 走弱而下跌，但 11 月出口恢复理性，库存仍处低位，价格已回升至 4,200 元/吨。 2026 年前 11 个月，国内钼产量小幅增长，进口量大幅增加 93%，表 观消费增长 6%，需求旺盛与钢招量增长一致，验证了去库逻辑，支撑 钼均价持续上涨。 高端不锈钢是钼需求的主要构成，占比 50%，其次是品种钢和军用特钢。 油气领域资本开支减少对高端不锈钢消费有影响，但整体钢产量仍增长， 品种钢和军用特钢订单旺盛。 全球钼供应增速预计在 26-27 年较低（2-3%），而需求增速更强（4- 5%），叠加当前低库存，未来两到三年内钼价具备较强的上涨确定性。 钨与钼在军用领域存在替代或孪生关系，钨价创新高后，部分需求可能 转向成本相对较低的钼。美国国防开支增加也将拉动对钼的需求。 Q&A 为什么在当前时间点推荐木板块？ 目前木价已经回到了应有的位置，且美国总统特朗普宣布 2027 年国防开支将 达到 1.5 万亿美元，这一消息预示着海外军费预期大幅提升。钼本身的供需缺 口在 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent trends indicate a strong performance in gold prices, with COMEX gold surpassing $4600 per ounce, driven by liquidity easing and increased demand for safe-haven assets, suggesting a potential continuation of the bull market in the metals sector [3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - As of January 12, COMEX gold reached a historic high of over $4600 per ounce, supported by macroeconomic factors such as the deepening Federal Reserve rate cut cycle and rising geopolitical uncertainties [3]. - The ongoing demand for gold from global central banks remains robust, contributing to the upward pressure on prices [3]. Group 2: Supply Constraints in Base Metals - Key base metals like copper, aluminum, and nickel are facing supply challenges, which are expected to support price increases. Recent strikes and production halts in major mining operations have exacerbated supply issues [3][4]. - Specific incidents include a strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile and indefinite shutdowns at the Mozal aluminum plant in Mozambique, indicating significant supply disruptions [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Mining ETFs - The mining ETF (561330) has shown a remarkable performance, with a net inflow of nearly 600 million yuan over ten consecutive days, reflecting strong investor interest [1][4]. - The mining ETF is positioned to outperform due to a higher concentration of leading stocks, with the top ten holdings accounting for 55.82% of the index, compared to 47.93% in the broader base metals index [4][7]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The copper market is expected to benefit from supply-demand imbalances and the favorable conditions of a rate cut cycle, which historically leads to price increases [12]. - The aluminum sector is constrained by production limits and strong demand from new energy sectors, suggesting sustained high prices [12]. - Lithium demand is projected to rise due to energy storage needs, with a potential supply-demand balance expected by 2026 [13]. - The rare earth sector may see profit elasticity and valuation improvements as China eases export restrictions, highlighting its strategic importance in global markets [14].