文 | 魏鑫 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 近期在美国关税政策的影响下，商品整体呈现偏弱态势，短期市场受困于捉摸不定的 美国政策，以及不明朗的经济前景。2025与1984年前后，美国经济与政策的存在共 性，我们复盘20世纪80年代的大宗商品走势，寻找未来商品行情演绎的方向。 当前美国与1984年的美国，在 经济环境、政府压力、汇率、政策 方面存在四大共 性，商品长期走势存在趋同的可能。当然， 历史并不会简单重复，在阶段性的行情表 现中，或存在走势的分化 。 01 商品价格周期性：1977、1984与2025 工业金属具有较高的价格弹性，且对经济、政策的变化极为敏感。为方便复盘，我们选 取CRB现货指数作为商品价格的代表，选取道琼斯工业指数作为美股的代表，并采用月 度均值，忽略较为短期的波动。可以发现在70年代，CRB金属的走势与2018年至今十分 相似，先从低位大幅上行，在高位明显回落之后，到达比上涨前更高的价格中枢并趋势 上行；从美股的表现来看，两个阶段的趋势性变化也有相似之处。 我们也可以找到80年代初与近五年市场走势的相似性。如果单纯地刻舟求剑，会认为近 年的价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article draws parallels between the current economic and policy environment in the U.S. and that of 1984, suggesting that commodity prices may follow a similar trajectory due to shared characteristics in economic conditions, government pressures, exchange rates, and policy measures [1][5][20]. Group 1: Commodity Price Cycles - Industrial metals exhibit high price elasticity and are sensitive to economic and policy changes, with the CRB spot index serving as a representative for commodity prices [2]. - The price movements of CRB metals from the 1970s show similarities to recent trends, indicating a potential long-term upward price center, although current conditions are more comparable to 1984 [2][3]. - Historical data indicates that price increases typically last 20-30 months, while declines are more rapid, lasting 12-18 months [3]. Group 2: Economic and Policy Similarities - Current economic conditions mirror those of the early 1980s, characterized by recession, fiscal expansion, and high inflation, leading to a cycle of declining interest rates and inflation [5][11]. - The U.S. faces similar pressures as in the 1980s, including high trade deficits and increasing fiscal deficits [6][12]. - The exchange rate environment is akin to that of the early 1980s, with a strong dollar exacerbating trade deficits, prompting government efforts to weaken the dollar [6][16]. - Policy measures from the current administration reflect those of the Reagan era, including tax cuts, promoting oil production, and reducing government spending to address fiscal deficits [20]. Group 3: Future Commodity Outlook - Based on historical trends from 1984 to 1986, a downward trend in commodity prices is anticipated, influenced by the Plaza Accord and the resulting currency dynamics [21][23]. - The initial pricing of commodities may reflect a contraction in global trade, with future expectations potentially correcting if certain countries are less affected by tariffs [23]. - The unclear economic outlook in the U.S. will depend on the duration of government policies, with potential short-term price spikes driven by policy stimuli, but long-term price levels will be determined by demand fundamentals [23].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][36]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 145.5 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 2.81 billion yuan, a 4.1% increase year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit is expected to reach 2.69 billion yuan, showing a significant growth of 43.9% [5][6]. - The company’s copper smelting cost competitiveness is strong, and the second phase of the Mirador project is set to commence production in mid-2025, which will increase the company's copper mining capacity to 310,000 tons, ranking third among A-share copper companies [2][6]. Financial Performance and Forecast - In 2024, the company is expected to generate a net profit of 2.81 billion yuan, with a revenue of 145.5 billion yuan. The operating cash flow is projected to decline to 1.54 billion yuan, a decrease of 74.1% due to increased raw material inventory and new smelting capacity coming online [5][6]. - The company’s copper production is forecasted to be 155,000 tons in 2024, a decrease of 20,000 tons year-on-year, primarily due to power shortages in Ecuador affecting the Mirador copper mine [6][7]. - The estimated net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to be 2.885 billion yuan, 4.397 billion yuan, and 4.561 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.7%, 52.4%, and 3.7% [2][34]. Segment Analysis - In the smelting segment, the company’s profitability is expected to decline in the second half of 2024, but it will not incur losses. The estimated smelting profit margin is expected to remain above 40% in 2024, despite a general decline in profitability across the industry [2][6]. - The mining segment is facing challenges, with a projected copper output decrease due to operational disruptions. However, the upcoming production from the second phase of the Mirador project is anticipated to significantly enhance the company's mining capacity [2][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Buy" [6] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum reported a revenue of 7.925 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9%, with a gross margin of 20%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.058 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 23% [1] - The company plans to build an integrated aluminum industry park in Indonesia, which will include bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, deep processing, and supporting industries, enhancing its competitive edge in the global aluminum market [2] - Tianshan Aluminum aims to achieve a 100% self-sufficiency rate in bauxite supply by expanding its resource acquisition capabilities and upstream industry layout [3] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.8 billion yuan, 5.5 billion yuan, and 6.0 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.3, 6.3, and 5.8 [4] Financial Summary - In 2025, Tianshan Aluminum is projected to have a revenue of 31.264 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.3% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.791 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 7.5% [5] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.03 yuan in 2025, with a net asset return rate of 16.2% [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the decline in alumina prices supports performance, with a focus on the growth potential of coal and aluminum businesses, as well as the elasticity of aluminum [3][4] - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 9.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.13%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 710 million yuan, down 35.1% year-on-year and 7.8% quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 5.81 billion, 6.46 billion, and 7.01 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.58, 2.87, and 3.12 yuan [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.63 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.13% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 4.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 710 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 35.1% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.8% [3][4] - The company expects a net profit growth of 35% in 2025, followed by 11.2% and 8.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [3][4] Business Segments - The coal business has a certified production capacity of 8.55 million tons per year, with a focus on high-quality metallurgical coal. In Q1 2025, coal prices decreased, with the average price of Yancheng anthracite coal at 1,240 yuan per ton, down 13.4% year-on-year and 3.7% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - The electrolytic aluminum business has a production capacity of 1.7 million tons per year, with the average price of aluminum in Q1 2025 at 20,433 yuan per ton, up 7.2% year-on-year but down 0.5% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] Growth Potential - The company anticipates an increase in coal production to approximately 7.2 million tons in 2025, supported by the technological upgrades at Liuhe Coal Mine [5] - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio to 41.78% in 2024, up 11.3 percentage points from 2023, indicating a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [5]

Group 1 - The core index, the China Hong Kong 300 Resource Index, reported a value of 2342.69 points, with a decline of 6.71% over the past month, 5.09% over the past three months, and 3.91% year-to-date [1] - The index comprises companies from various sectors including banking, transportation, resources, infrastructure, logistics, and leisure, reflecting the overall performance of different thematic listed companies in the Hong Kong market [1] - The top ten holdings of the index include China National Offshore Oil (30.27%), PetroChina (12.09%), China Shenhua (10.59%), Zijin Mining (10.42%), Sinopec (9.56%), China Hongqiao (3.67%), China Coal Energy (3.33%), Zhaojin Mining (3.3%), Yanzhou Coal Mining (2.6%), and Luoyang Molybdenum (2.2%) [1] Group 2 - The sector composition of the index shows that oil and gas account for 52.33%, coal for 18.61%, precious metals for 15.80%, industrial metals for 9.90%, rare metals for 2.94%, and other non-ferrous metals and alloys for 0.41% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year, and weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment [2]

| 排名 | 板块名称 | 主力资金净流出 (亿元) | 主力资金净流出率(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 机械设备 | -7.14 | -1.75 | | 2 | 房地产 | -6.79 | -7.41 | | 3 | 基础化工 | -4.64 | -1.32 | | ব | 矢药 | -4.10 | -1.22 | | 5 | 电子 | -3.18 | -0.49 | 星矿主力资金监控：早盘买入前十榜（截止时间： 10 时 50 分) 主力资金监控：紫金矿业净买入超4亿 智通财经4月21日电，智通财经星矿数据显示，今日早盘主力资金净流入计算机、有色金属、工业金属等板块，净流出机械设备、房 地产、基础化工行业等板块，其中计算机板块净流出超15亿元。个股方面，紫金矿业上涨，主力资金净买入4.95亿元位居首位，青 岛金王、大位科技、维维股份获主力资金净流入居前；红宝丽遭净卖出超5亿元，中兴通讯、罗博特科、硕贝德主力资金净流出额居 前。 | 排名 | 板块名称 | 主力资金净流入 (亿元) | 主力资金净流入率(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that in Q4 2024, the company achieved a record high revenue of 7.79 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.43% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.99% [4][5] - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.14 billion yuan in Q4 2024, which represents a significant year-on-year decrease of 82.53% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 53.21% [5][6] - The company is focusing on accelerating project construction as a key strategy for growth, with the TianTai intelligent manufacturing production base project expected to enhance production capacity significantly [9][10] Group 2 - The report indicates that Zhongfu Industrial's revenue for 2024 reached 22.76 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.12%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.7 billion yuan, down 39.3% [12][13] - In Q4 2024, Zhongfu Industrial's revenue was 6.03 billion yuan, up 17.05% year-on-year, but the net profit was negative at -0.24 billion yuan, a drastic decline of 106.46% [12][13] - The report notes that the decline in aluminum oxide prices is expected to significantly reduce production costs for Zhongfu Industrial, enhancing profit margins in the future [13][14] Group 3 - The report states that Meinian Health achieved a revenue of 10.7 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 1.76% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.82 billion yuan, down 44.18% [17][18] - The company reported that its health check service revenue was 10.3 billion yuan, with a total of 15.38 million visits, indicating a 12% decline in customer visits [18][19] - The integration of AI technology is expected to enhance revenue generation and operational efficiency, with AI-related income reaching 220 million yuan in 2024 [18][20] Group 4 - The report discusses the global first humanoid robot marathon held in Beijing, indicating a growing interest and investment in humanoid robotics [21][22] - The establishment of the K-Humanoid Robot Alliance in South Korea, with a budget of 200 billion won (approximately 10.24 billion yuan), signifies a national commitment to advancing humanoid robotics [23][24] - The report emphasizes that the humanoid robot industry is poised for significant investment opportunities, likening its potential to the "ChatGPT moment" in technology [31][32] Group 5 - The report indicates that Electric Science Digital achieved a revenue of 10.7 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.05%, with a net profit of 5.51 billion yuan, up 10.77% [33][34] - The company is focusing on digital products and industry digitalization, with significant growth in its digital finance and smart manufacturing sectors [34][35] - The report projects that the company's revenue will continue to grow, with estimates of 11.84 billion yuan, 13.17 billion yuan, and 14.98 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [39][40] Group 6 - The report highlights that Huading Co. achieved a revenue of 1.156 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 44.53%, while the net profit increased by 17.26% to 0.94 billion yuan [41][42] - The company’s nylon segment reported a revenue of 1.133 billion yuan, with a production increase of 3.99% year-on-year [44][45] - The report notes ongoing project investments aimed at enhancing production capacity and market share in the high-end nylon segment [46]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company has shown significant profit growth, with a 102.03% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024, driven by rising alumina prices and production increases [6] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from its full industry chain layout, which mitigates the impact of fluctuating alumina prices [6] - New projects in Guinea and Guangxi are set to enhance the company's resource base and production capacity, contributing to future profit growth [6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 280.89 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.06% year-on-year, while net profit reached 44.55 billion yuan [6] - The company's projected profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 60 billion yuan, 64 billion yuan, and 62 billion yuan respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [6] - The gross profit margin is expected to rise significantly, with estimates of 28.6% in 2025 and 26.0% in 2026 [7] Production and Market Trends - The company produced 1.1759 million tons of electrolytic aluminum in 2024, a 1% increase year-on-year, and 2.2789 million tons of alumina, a 7.55% increase [6] - Alumina prices have shown a gradual increase in 2024, with average prices rising from 3,365 yuan/ton in Q1 to 5,312 yuan/ton in Q2 [6] - Despite a recent decline in alumina prices, the company is expected to maintain profitability due to improved margins in other segments of the industry [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [7][18]. Core Views - The company achieved record high performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 78.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.55% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.76%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 10.17 billion yuan, up 62.39% year-on-year and 32.15% quarter-on-quarter, driven by rising gold and copper prices [1][2]. - The production and sales of gold and copper met expectations, with gold production reaching 19.1 tons and copper production at 288,000 tons, achieving 22.5% and 25% of the annual targets respectively [2]. - The company completed the acquisition of the Akyem gold mine in Ghana, which generated sales revenue of 574 million USD and a net profit of 128 million USD in 2023. The ongoing projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo and other regions are expected to significantly increase production capacity [5][6]. Financial Performance - The average cost of gold production in Q1 was 251 yuan per gram, up 6.8% quarter-on-quarter, while the average cost of copper was 24,107 yuan per ton, a slight increase of 0.4%. The gross profit for gold was 7.04 billion yuan, and for copper, it was 8.34 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of approximately 2.34 billion yuan for both metals [3]. - The company forecasts net profits of 40.95 billion yuan, 45.35 billion yuan, and 51.02 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.6x, 10.4x, and 9.3x [5][6]. Production and Capacity Expansion - The company aims to achieve production targets of 1.15 million tons of copper and 85 tons of gold in 2025, supported by ongoing projects that are expected to ramp up production significantly [5][6].