型劇现日报 聚烯烃广 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年7月2日 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 品种 | 7月1日 | 6月30日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 7214 | 7228 | -14 | -0.19% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7249 | 7261 | -12 | -0.17% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | eaal | 7012 | -16 | -0.23% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | 7044 | 7070 | -26 | -0.37% | | | L2509-2601 | રેટ | 33 | 2 | 6.06% | | | PP2509-2601 | 48 | 58 | -10 | -17.24% | TT/04 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7110 | 7150 | -40 | -0.56% | | | 华北LLDPE膜料现货 | 7170 | 7200 | -30 | -0.42% | | | 华北塑料基差 | -8 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 2 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | | | SC：元/桶 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌幅% | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a mixed trend with different performances across various sectors. In the financial derivatives market, stock index futures show certain resilience, while treasury bond futures are affected by the money - market conditions. Precious metals continue to rebound due to international trade and economic data. In the commodity futures market, different metals and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends, and the investment strategies vary accordingly [2][6][8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the A - share market showed a sector rotation. The red - chip sector rebounded, while the TMT sector pulled back. The four major stock index futures contracts had different price movements, and the basis spread widened. The macro situation is improving, but investors should be cautious about chasing high prices. They can lightly sell MO options with an execution price of 5900 in August - September to collect premiums [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: After the cross - month period, the money - market rate dropped significantly, and treasury bond futures generally rebounded. However, they lack the momentum to break through the previous high. The focus is on whether the money - market rate can further decline, the subsequent fundamental situation, and the central bank's bond trading announcements. Short - term unilateral strategies suggest appropriate allocation of long positions on dips and taking profits near the previous high [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold continues its upward trend due to the US tariff threat and the decline of the US dollar index. The US economic data shows the impact of tariffs on the manufacturing industry, and the labor supply is tightening. The euro - zone inflation rate is stable. The long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, but there are short - term uncertainties. Silver is affected by gold and has a short - term range - bound trend [8][9][12]. Container Shipping Futures (EC) - The spot prices of major shipping companies are provided, and the container shipping index shows different trends in the European and US routes. The futures market rose yesterday, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1800 - 2000 points. The actual price in August is not likely to drop significantly, and the subsequent price center will move up [13][14]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The COMEX - LME spread has widened again, and high copper prices have suppressed downstream purchases. The supply of copper concentrate is limited, and the demand has some resilience, but there are also potential pressures. The copper price is expected to be supported in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 79000 - 81000 [15][17][19]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is in a state of slight surplus, and the price is expected to be weak in the medium term. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 2750 - 3100, and investors can consider short - selling on rallies [19][20][21]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level. The macro environment and low inventory support the price, but the consumption off - season restricts its upward space. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 20000 - 20800 [22][23][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market of aluminum alloy shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 19200 - 20000 [24][25][26]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rebounds due to the weakening of the US dollar, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low. The supply of zinc ore is loose, the demand is weakening, and the inventory provides some support. The long - term strategy is to short on rallies, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 21500 - 22500 [27][28][30]. - **Tin**: The tin price is in a high - level range - bound state. The supply is still tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. The short - term strategy is to be bullish on dips and short on rallies based on inventory and import data [30][31][33]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is in a narrow - range oscillation. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is stable but with limited growth. The inventory still exerts pressure on the price. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 116000 - 124000 [33][34][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 12300 - 13000 [36][37][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures show a wide - range oscillation. The supply is sufficient, the demand is stable but with limited growth, and the inventory is at a high level. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 58000 - 64000 [39][40][42]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The price of steel is slightly stable due to the rumor of production restrictions in Tangshan. The supply is at a high level but shows a slight decline, and the demand is in the off - season with a downward trend. The price of steel is affected by cost and demand expectations. Short - selling operations or selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [42][43][44]. - **Iron Ore**: The 09 contract of iron ore may turn weak. The global shipment volume has decreased, the demand is affected by the off - season and the production - restriction policy in Tangshan. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the range of 690 - 720 [45][46][47]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal is strong, and the futures price is oscillating. The supply is expected to increase, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory is at a medium level. Unilateral short - selling of the 2601 contract of coke for hedging is recommended, and waiting for a stable trend to go long on the 2509 contract of coking coal [48][50][51]. - **Coke**: The price of coke is close to the bottom. The fourth - round price cut has been implemented, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand will slightly decline. The inventory is at a medium level. Unilateral short - selling of the 2601 contract of coke for hedging is recommended, and waiting for a stable trend to go long on the 2509 contract of coke [52][54][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The US soybean market is in a bottom - grinding state, and the support at the bottom is strengthening. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the market is waiting for the determination of the demand trend. Short - term bottom - grinding and long - position opportunities on dips can be focused on [56][57][59]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs is oscillating strongly, but the futures price is under pressure due to profit - taking. The secondary fattening inventory is increasing, and the market sentiment is expected to be strong in the short term, but the 09 contract is under pressure [60][61][62]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn is stable, and the import auction has a premium, which supports the futures price. The supply is tight in the long term, and the demand is gradually increasing. The overall trend is upward, but the pace is slow [63][64].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Short - term price trends are volatile, and market fluctuations increase. US economic data and policy decisions influence its short - term rise and fall [14][15]. - Stock Index Futures: A - shares continue to rise with increased trading volume, and the next stage of incremental policies will determine whether market risk appetite can be further enhanced [2]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Bullish in July, but the probability of a trending market is not high. It is recommended to use a grid strategy and continue to hold the curve - steepening strategy [29]. - Steel: Steel prices are oscillating. While spot fundamentals are not under significant pressure, there are still medium - and long - term risks in external demand, so caution is advised regarding the height of the steel price rebound [4]. - Copper: Macro factors support copper prices, and short - term prices are likely to oscillate strongly due to repeated tariff expectations and increased LME squeeze - out expectations [5]. - Crude Oil: Prices are oscillating strongly, waiting for the results of the OPEC+ weekend meeting [6]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - News: Trump will not extend the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline; the US June ISM manufacturing PMI is 49; Powell cannot determine if a July rate cut is too early [12][13][14]. - Review: Gold prices rebound due to the weakening of the US dollar index, but short - term upward momentum is insufficient. The decision on a July rate cut depends on the June non - farm payroll report and inflation data [14]. - Investment Advice: Short - term price trends are volatile, and market fluctuations increase [15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - News: Powell expects tariffs to affect inflation this summer; the US Senate passes Trump's tax reform bill; Trump denies extending the tariff deadline [16][17][19]. - Review: Market risk appetite cools, and the US dollar index remains low in the short term [19]. - Investment Advice: The US dollar remains weak in the short term [20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - News: US June manufacturing activity is slightly better than expected; the number of job vacancies unexpectedly rises; Powell says tariffs will affect prices this summer [21][22][23]. - Review: The US economy shows resilience, and the market continues to wait for non - farm data. There are signs of overheating in market sentiment [23]. - Investment Advice: Be aware of the risk of a market correction [23]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - News: The added value of above - scale electronic information manufacturing from January to May increases by 11.1% year - on - year; the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting emphasizes regulating low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises [24][25]. - Review: A - shares continue to rise with increased trading volume, and the next stage of incremental policies will determine market risk appetite [26]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to allocate evenly among stock indices [27]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - News: The Caixin PMI in June is 50.4; the central bank conducts 131 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [28][29]. - Review: Bullish in July, but the probability of a trending market is not high. It is recommended to use a grid strategy and continue to hold the curve - steepening strategy [29]. - Investment Advice: Long positions can be held, and it is advisable to pay attention to the strategy of buying on dips [30]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - News: The US processed 203.7 million bushels of soybeans in May [31]. - Review: The market is calm. Brazilian exports are expected to decline in June, and domestic downstream transactions are dull [32]. - Investment Advice: Short - term futures prices continue to oscillate. Pay attention to weather in US soybean - growing areas and Sino - US relations [33]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - News: Malaysia's palm oil production in June decreased by 0.65% month - on - month; Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased by 53% year - on - year [34][35]. - Review: The oil market continues to oscillate. Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to decline slightly in June, and Indonesian exports are expected to remain high in June [35]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to production growth in producing areas and restocking in consuming areas. Also, watch the results of the US July 8 hearing [35]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - News: Only 3 sugar mills of Guangxi Nanhua have not cleared their inventories; the expected delivery volume of ICE July raw sugar is the lowest since 2014; sugar production in central - southern Brazil in the first half of June decreased by 22% year - on - year [36][37][38]. - Review: Sugar production in central - southern Brazil decreased due to rain, and there are uncertainties in future sugar production [38]. - Investment Advice: The external market is weak, which will drag down the domestic market, but domestic spot prices are firm. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain oscillating in the short term [39]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - News: Starch sugar prices are stable, with different trends in different varieties [40]. - Review: Starch enterprises are still in the red, and starch production is expected to gradually reduce to reduce inventory. Downstream demand may increase the operating rate of starch sugar [40]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to wait and see due to complex influencing factors on the CS - C spread [41]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - News: The total land acquisition amount of key real - estate enterprises in the first half of the year increased by 33.3% year - on - year; China's heavy - truck sales in June increased by 30% year - on - year [42][43]. - Review: Steel prices are oscillating, with no significant pressure on the spot market, but medium - and long - term external demand risks remain [44]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to use a rebound - hedging strategy for the spot market [45]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - News: The auction of imported corn starts, with a high成交 rate and premium [45]. - Review: The auction reflects a shortage of spot inventory. If the balance sheet is as expected, the auction volume may not reverse the supply - demand situation [45]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts. When the new - crop production situation is clearer, consider shorting the November and January contracts [45]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - News: The price of steam coal in northern ports is temporarily stable, and terminal inventory is relatively abundant [46]. - Review: High - temperature power consumption eases coal prices in the short term, and prices are expected to remain stable [46]. - Investment Advice: Coal prices are expected to remain stable in the short term due to high - temperature power consumption [46]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - News: The mining plan of the Sino Iron project is unconditionally approved [47][48]. - Review: Iron ore prices continue to oscillate weakly, with seasonal pressure on the fundamentals but no prominent contradictions [48]. - Investment Advice: Iron ore prices are expected to continue weak oscillations in July [48]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - News: The government emphasizes governing low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises [49]. - Review: The polysilicon fundamentals are not optimistic, but there have been significant policy changes recently [50]. - Investment Advice: Before leading enterprises jointly cut production, the fundamentals are bearish. It is recommended to continue holding the PS2508 - 2509 long - spread position [50]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - News: The production schedule of silicone continues to strengthen [51]. - Review: There are production changes in different regions, and the upper space of the disk is limited [51][52]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [52]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - News: Semi - solid batteries are mass - applied in electric light trucks, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will accelerate the research and development of related varieties [53][54]. - Review: The demand in July is better than expected, driving the price to rise [54]. - Investment Advice: Short - term lithium prices are expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to avoid short positions or move them to LC2511 and pay attention to buying on dips. Also, consider the LC2509 - LC2511 long - spread position [54]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - News: Russia's exports of basic metals to China have increased significantly; a new copper company is established; Chile's copper production in May increased month - on - month [55][57][58]. - Review: Macro factors support copper prices, and short - term prices are likely to oscillate strongly [58]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to take a bullish approach unilaterally and wait and see for arbitrage [59]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - News: Shanghai launches a subsidy program for electric bicycle trade - ins; battery prices are raised [60][61]. - Review: The short - term supply and demand are weak, but there is an expectation of strong supply and demand in the long term, and the price may rise [62][63]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to buying on dips and potential Sell Put opportunities. Wait and see for the C - structure and consider external - internal reverse arbitrage [63]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - News: The LME zinc spread is at a discount; a zinc smelter strike ends; Peru's zinc concentrate production increased in April [63][64]. - Review: Zinc prices oscillate downward. Although the short - term macro sentiment is strong, the medium - term fundamentals are expected to be in surplus [64]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see unilaterally, consider positive arbitrage for spreads, and maintain the external - internal positive arbitrage idea in the medium term [64]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - News: Indonesia proposes an investment plan for nickel mines to the US [65]. - Review: LME and SHFE inventories decrease. The shortage of nickel ore eases, and raw material cost support weakens [66]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds as the medium - term fundamentals are bearish [67]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - News: API US crude oil inventories increase [68]. - Review: Oil prices oscillate strongly, waiting for the results of the OPEC+ meeting [68]. - Investment Advice: Short - term price oscillations are expected within a range [69]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - News: Sinopec lowers the listing price of pure benzene [70]. - Review: The short - term supply - demand structure of pure benzene is average, and the supply - demand of styrene is expected to weaken in the future [70][71]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to the release rhythm of new pure benzene capacity, and price fluctuations depend on the oil end and supply disruptions [71]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - News: The price of caustic soda in Shandong decreases, and the supply and demand situation is not optimistic [72][73]. - Review: The caustic soda market is oversupplied, and prices may continue to decline [73][74]. - Investment Advice: The rebound of the futures price is limited as the spot price decline has not ended [74]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - News: Bottle chip factory export prices are mostly stable, and some are slightly lowered [75]. - Review: Bottle chip factories plan to cut production in July, and if implemented, inventory pressure will be relieved [77][78]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the bottle chip processing margin by buying on dips [78]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - News: The price of imported wood pulp continues to decline [78]. - Review: The fundamentals of pulp are weak, and the market is expected to oscillate [78][79]. - Investment Advice: The market is expected to oscillate as the fundamentals remain weak despite the adjustment of deliverable pulp varieties [79]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - News: The price of PVC powder in the domestic market decreases [80]. - Review: PVC futures oscillate after falling, and the short - term fundamentals change little [80]. - Investment Advice: The market is expected to oscillate as the short - term fundamentals change little [80]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - News: The closing price of CEA on July 1 decreases, and the carbon market enables one - way auction trading [81][82]. - Review: One - way auction trading improves market efficiency and liquidity [82]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to wait and see due to large short - term fluctuations [82].

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - Global stock market risk appetite has steadily increased, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching record closing highs [1] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6204.95 points, up 25% from its low on April 9, while the Nasdaq rose over 34% from its low [5] - The Korean Composite Index surged over 28%, leading global stock markets, while the German DAX index saw a cumulative increase of 20% [1] Group 2: Commodity Market Trends - Gold prices rose significantly, with a 25.59% increase in the first half of the year, following a 19% rise in Q1 and a 6% increase in Q2 [1][8] - Platinum experienced a notable "catch-up" rally, with a cumulative increase of 48% in the first half of the year, while silver futures rose by 32.61% [1] - The COMEX gold futures saw a 5.67% increase in Q2, while platinum prices surged approximately 36.14% in the same period [8] Group 3: Currency Market Dynamics - The US dollar index fell over 10% in the first half of the year, marking the largest decline since 1973, while non-US currencies strengthened [1][5] - The euro appreciated by 13.8% against the dollar, and both the yen and pound rose by 8% [1] Group 4: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices experienced wide fluctuations, with WTI crude oil reaching a high of nearly $80 per barrel and a low of around $55 [10] - OPEC+ has begun increasing production, with plans to add approximately 1.37 million barrels per day by July [11] - Analysts predict that oil prices may have reached their peak for the year, with expectations of a downward trend influenced by OPEC+ production increases [11]

Core Viewpoint - The global stock market remains optimistic despite tariff concerns, with the MSCI global index reaching new highs and continuing its upward trend in the second half of the year [1] Market Performance - The MSCI global index has risen for four consecutive days, reaching a record high, while Asian and European stock markets have seen slight increases [1] - U.S. stock index futures are slightly down, with the S&P 500 futures showing a minor decline of approximately 0.2% [7][8] - European stocks have also experienced slight gains, with the German DAX30 and the UK FTSE 100 indices opening up by 0.17% and 0.18% respectively [3] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell by 1.2% due to tariff threats from Trump, while the South Korean Seoul Composite Index rose by 0.6% [4][8] Currency and Commodity Movements - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.1%, while the Japanese yen appreciated by about 0.4% [4] - Gold prices increased by approximately 0.8%, and silver rose by about 0.7% [6] - International oil prices saw a short-term drop, with WTI crude oil falling below $65 per barrel, currently at $64.99 [7] Economic Context - Analysts suggest that market sentiment may be highly sensitive to developments in trade policy as the earnings season approaches and tariff deadlines loom [9] - The U.S. market is at historical highs amid macroeconomic uncertainties, primarily driven by U.S. policies [9] - The first half of the year saw U.S. stocks reach new highs due to expectations of successful trade negotiations and rising Fed rate cut expectations, while the dollar index experienced a 10.8% decline, marking its worst first half since 1973 [9]

在特朗普"关税大限"逼近之际，美印两国贸易谈判进入冲刺阶段。 据媒体7月1日报道，印度正寻求与美国在本周内达成一项临时贸易协定，以避免特朗普政府征收的高达 26%的对等关税。这将是特朗普宣布关税政策以来，美国与主要贸易伙伴达成的首批协议之一。而这一 临时协定将为全面双边贸易协定奠定基础，两国计划在秋季前完成全面协议的第一阶段内容。 "农业市场存在很大敏感性。"一位印度政府高级官员说道。印度乳制品行业雇佣超过8000万人，其中多 数为小农户，该行业在此前与欧盟的贸易谈判中也成功获得保护。 印度对外国乳制品进口的谨慎态度还涉及宗教因素。由于担心外国乳制品可能来自食用含牛肉饲料的奶 牛，这使得虔诚的印度教徒无法接受此类产品。 增加美天然气进口 双边贸易额翻倍至5000亿美元 为解决双边贸易不平衡问题，印度已同意增加从美国进口天然气，以降低贸易顺差。消息人士透露，印 度对美贸易顺差在2024-2025财年达到412亿美元。 这一谈判成果或将赶在"关税大限"之前。央视新闻指出，7月9日是美国政府暂停征收所谓"对等关税"90 天的截止期限。 印度代表团负责人Rajesh Agarwal周一已经抵达华盛顿，加速进行贸易谈判 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual ratings for each energy and chemical product, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "oscillating strongly" [149]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international crude oil futures market continues to oscillate. Although the global inventory is gradually rising, the low inventory in the US, the world's largest oil consumer, supports oil prices and domestic chemicals [2]. - The chemical products market remains in an oscillating state. There is a divergence in the inventory of liquid chemicals, with the inventory of pure benzene and styrene in East China ports rising to the highest in the same period in five years, while the ethylene glycol inventory has dropped to the lowest in five years. Low - inventory and high - basis varieties are expected to perform better [3]. - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is to approach it with an oscillating mindset, waiting for new supply - demand drivers [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News - The EU is willing to accept a 10% uniform tariff from the US but hopes for lower rates in key industries. Trump threatens to impose new tariffs on Japan, and the US will announce trade agreements with multiple countries after July 4 [7]. - The International Energy Agency predicts that global oil demand will increase by 2.5 million barrels per day from 2024 to 2030, reaching a peak of about 105.5 million barrels per day by the end of the decade. Electric vehicles are expected to replace 5.4 million barrels per day of oil demand by the end of the decade, and the petrochemical industry will become the main source of oil - demand growth from 2026 [7]. - An oil tanker "Villamoura" carrying 1 million barrels of oil exploded near Libya. Since the beginning of this year, four other ships have had similar explosions [7]. - China's manufacturing activity improved for the second consecutive month in June but remained in a contraction state. The official manufacturing PMI was 49.7, and the non - manufacturing index rose from 50.3 to 50.5 [7]. 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - On June 30, international crude oil futures continued to oscillate and declined slightly due to the record - high US production reported by EIA. The market is closely watching OPEC+'s production decision on July 6, with a high call for continued production increase in August. As global supply increases and the US changes its low - inventory pattern, oil prices may enter a downward trend [6][8]. 3.2.2 Asphalt - The main asphalt futures closed at 3,561 yuan/ton. With geopolitical cooling, OPEC+ may continue to increase production more than expected in August, and the supply of heavy oil will increase. The current asphalt price is overvalued, and its absolute price and monthly spread are expected to decline [9]. 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3,002 yuan/ton. Geopolitical cooling, increased supply of heavy oil, and reduced demand for power generation are negative factors. The overall supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [10]. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3,600 yuan/ton. It follows the decline of crude oil. Facing factors such as reduced shipping demand, green - energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, it is expected to maintain low - valuation operation and follow crude - oil fluctuations [11]. 3.2.5 LPG - On June 30, 2025, the PG 2508 contract closed at 4,222 yuan/ton. The market is still cautious about geopolitical risks, but the supply - demand pattern of "strong supply and weak demand" is difficult to change in the short term. The PG market is expected to oscillate in the short term [11][12]. 3.2.6 PX - On June 30, the CFR price of PX in Taiwan, China was 874(6) dollars/ton. In the short term, the cost of PX is likely to weaken due to OPEC+ production increase and concerns about global demand. Some domestic PX plants will be shut down for maintenance, and the market should focus on the implementation of device - change expectations [14]. 3.2.7 PTA - On June 30, the PTA spot price was 5,050(25) yuan/ton. This week, the crude - oil market may decline, and the support for PTA is weak. Although the supply of PTA is tight and the basis of July's supply is strong, some downstream factories plan to reduce production, so the PTA market is expected to oscillate [14]. 3.2.8 Styrene - On June 30, the spot price of styrene in East China was 7,780(-170) yuan/ton. Affected by the easing of the Middle - East situation, the styrene price has corrected. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The market should be vigilant about the impact of short - squeezing events and pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene [15]. 3.2.9 Ethylene Glycol - On June 30, the price of ethylene glycol was sorted at a low level. The inventory in East China ports has dropped to the lowest in the same period in five years. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate strongly, and investors should not short too aggressively [17]. 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - On June 30, the raw materials provided support, and the short - fiber futures remained stable. The short - fiber price follows the raw materials, and its own supply - demand situation is oscillating. The processing fee is expected to bottom out and rise [17]. 3.2.11 Polyester Bottle Chip - On June 30, the futures of polyester raw materials rose slightly, and the price of polyester bottle chips was mostly stable. The absolute price of bottle chips follows the raw materials, and the compression space of the processing fee is limited [18][20]. 3.2.12 Methanol - On June 30, the spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2,780(-20) yuan/ton. With the easing of the Israel - Iran situation, the support for the methanol price has weakened. The port inventory has increased, and the negative feedback from the downstream has emerged. The methanol market is expected to oscillate in the short term [21][22]. 3.2.13 Urea - On June 30, 2025, the low - end prices of urea factory warehouses and the market were 1,760(+0) and 1,790(-10) yuan/ton respectively. The domestic supply - demand pattern of "strong supply and weak demand" is difficult to change, and it depends on exports. The urea market is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to changes in export quotas [22][23]. 3.2.14 LLDPE - On June 30, the mainstream spot price of LLDPE was 7,300(0) yuan/ton. Affected by the decline in oil prices and the increase in supply, and the low downstream demand, the LLDPE 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. 3.2.15 PP - On June 30, the mainstream transaction price of East China wire - drawing PP was 7,160(-20) yuan/ton. The cost is affected by oil prices, the supply is increasing, the downstream demand is weak, and the export window is limited. The PP market is expected to oscillate in the short term [26][27]. 3.2.16 PVC - The benchmark price of calcium - carbide - method PVC in East China was 4,860(+0) yuan/ton. Although the market risk preference has improved, the PVC supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the market should short on rallies [28]. 3.2.17 Caustic Soda - The 50% caustic - soda price in Shandong was 2,560(-40) yuan/ton. Affected by factors such as the decrease in electricity prices, the increase in production, and the weakening of demand, the caustic - soda market is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the impact of cost increases on production reduction [29]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - The report provides data on the spreads (such as M1 - M2, 1 - 5 months, etc.) and basis of various energy and chemical products, as well as the changes in these data [31]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists different chemical products for basis and spread monitoring, specific content is not fully presented in the provided text.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: US consumer sentiment has improved, and the economic fundamentals are showing signs of recovery. However, due to tariff policies, consumers remain cautious about the future, and structural concerns still exist. Inflation expectations are stabilizing, and market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates have increased this week [8]. - Domestic macro: The domestic economic fundamentals have not changed significantly this week. Both domestic and external demand have some resilience, but the upward drive depends on the acceleration of existing policies and the implementation of incremental policies. The real estate market is in a slow season, and infrastructure construction's physical workload is seasonally decreasing. Local special bond issuance has increased at the end of the month, and the remaining trade - in funds will be allocated in July to support consumption [8]. - Asset views: The domestic economy remains stable, with mainly structural opportunities for domestic assets. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while the long - term weak - dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Movements - **Domestic financial markets**: The CSI 300 futures rose 0.24% daily, 0.24% weekly, 3.57% monthly, 1.09% quarterly, and - 0.90% year - to - date. Treasury bond futures generally declined, with the 30 - year Treasury bond futures down 0.39% daily. The dollar index was flat, and the dollar - yuan central parity rate decreased by 41 pips daily. Interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate increased [3][5]. - **Domestic commodities**: The shipping sector's container shipping to Europe route decreased by 2.42% daily. Among non - ferrous metals, copper decreased by 0.06% daily, while zinc increased by 0.38% daily. In the energy and chemical sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil decreased by 0.23% daily, and ICE UK natural gas decreased by 2.90% daily. Agricultural products showed mixed trends, with CBOT soybeans rising 0.89% daily and CBOT corn rising 1.79% daily [3][4][5]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas macro**: The US consumer sentiment is improving, but tariff policies make consumers cautious. The inflation expectation structure is stabilizing, and market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates have increased [8]. - **Domestic macro**: The domestic economic fundamentals are stable, but the real estate market is in a slow season, and infrastructure construction's physical workload is decreasing seasonally. Local special bond issuance is increasing, and consumption - supporting funds will be allocated in July [8]. 3.3 Viewpoints on Various Sectors - **Macro**: Overseas stagflation trading is cooling down, and the long - and short - term allocation strategies are diverging. Domestically, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal side will implement established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure is flattening, and economic growth expectations are improving [10]. - **Financial**: The bullish sentiment in both the stock and bond markets has declined. Stock index futures are in a state of releasing capital congestion, and stock index options require waiting for a decline in volatility. The bullish sentiment in the bond market has weakened [10]. - **Precious metals**: Risk appetite has recovered, and precious metals are undergoing short - term adjustments. The short - term trend will continue to adjust due to the progress of Sino - US negotiations [10]. - **Shipping**: Market sentiment has declined. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June, and the game between peak - season expectations and price increases needs to be monitored [10]. - **Black building materials**: The sector remains in a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the recovery of coal supply in July. Coke has completed four rounds of price cuts, and the sentiment of stabilizing prices is increasing. Coking coal supply is continuously disrupted, and the market sentiment is high [10]. - **Non - ferrous metals and new materials**: The coexistence of low inventory and weak demand expectations leads to continued volatility in non - ferrous metals. Copper prices are high due to a weak dollar index, while zinc is expected to decline due to an oversupply situation [10]. - **Energy and chemicals**: Crude oil prices are stable, and the positive basis of chemicals provides some support. Most products are in a volatile state, with some expected to decline and a few expected to rise [12]. - **Agriculture**: Sino - US negotiations have made substantial progress, which is beneficial for the cotton price to rebound. Most agricultural products are in a volatile state, with some expected to decline, such as pulp [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on July 1, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows a gradual increase from - 185.4 to - 180.4 yuan/ton; the 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 spreads are all 0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For INE crude oil, the basis from June 24 to June 30, 2025, increased from - 33.99 to - 19.94 yuan/ton; the fuel oil basis data has some blanks; the crude oil/asphalt ratio decreased from 0.1520 to 0.1395 [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis data for various chemicals from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows different trends. For example, the natural rubber basis changed from 185 to - 35 yuan/ton. Inter - period spreads and inter - variety spreads are also provided for multiple chemicals [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows different trends. Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, as well as inter - variety spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc., are presented [16]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows different trends [24]. 3.4.2 London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on June 30, 2025, are provided [30]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows different trends. Inter - period spreads and inter - variety spreads for multiple agricultural products are also presented [40]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows different trends. Inter - period spreads for different contracts of these indices are also provided [48].