再推【钼】：海外军备或大幅扩张，22 年行情有望复现 20260112 摘要 钼价受供需关系影响显著，近期虽因南美进口矿超预期增加及钢厂盈利 走弱而下跌，但 11 月出口恢复理性，库存仍处低位，价格已回升至 4,200 元/吨。 2026 年前 11 个月，国内钼产量小幅增长，进口量大幅增加 93%，表 观消费增长 6%，需求旺盛与钢招量增长一致，验证了去库逻辑，支撑 钼均价持续上涨。 高端不锈钢是钼需求的主要构成，占比 50%，其次是品种钢和军用特钢。 油气领域资本开支减少对高端不锈钢消费有影响，但整体钢产量仍增长， 品种钢和军用特钢订单旺盛。 全球钼供应增速预计在 26-27 年较低（2-3%），而需求增速更强（4- 5%），叠加当前低库存，未来两到三年内钼价具备较强的上涨确定性。 钨与钼在军用领域存在替代或孪生关系，钨价创新高后，部分需求可能 转向成本相对较低的钼。美国国防开支增加也将拉动对钼的需求。 Q&A 为什么在当前时间点推荐木板块？ 目前木价已经回到了应有的位置，且美国总统特朗普宣布 2027 年国防开支将 达到 1.5 万亿美元，这一消息预示着海外军费预期大幅提升。钼本身的供需缺 口在 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent trends indicate a strong performance in gold prices, with COMEX gold surpassing $4600 per ounce, driven by liquidity easing and increased demand for safe-haven assets, suggesting a potential continuation of the bull market in the metals sector [3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - As of January 12, COMEX gold reached a historic high of over $4600 per ounce, supported by macroeconomic factors such as the deepening Federal Reserve rate cut cycle and rising geopolitical uncertainties [3]. - The ongoing demand for gold from global central banks remains robust, contributing to the upward pressure on prices [3]. Group 2: Supply Constraints in Base Metals - Key base metals like copper, aluminum, and nickel are facing supply challenges, which are expected to support price increases. Recent strikes and production halts in major mining operations have exacerbated supply issues [3][4]. - Specific incidents include a strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile and indefinite shutdowns at the Mozal aluminum plant in Mozambique, indicating significant supply disruptions [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Mining ETFs - The mining ETF (561330) has shown a remarkable performance, with a net inflow of nearly 600 million yuan over ten consecutive days, reflecting strong investor interest [1][4]. - The mining ETF is positioned to outperform due to a higher concentration of leading stocks, with the top ten holdings accounting for 55.82% of the index, compared to 47.93% in the broader base metals index [4][7]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The copper market is expected to benefit from supply-demand imbalances and the favorable conditions of a rate cut cycle, which historically leads to price increases [12]. - The aluminum sector is constrained by production limits and strong demand from new energy sectors, suggesting sustained high prices [12]. - Lithium demand is projected to rise due to energy storage needs, with a potential supply-demand balance expected by 2026 [13]. - The rare earth sector may see profit elasticity and valuation improvements as China eases export restrictions, highlighting its strategic importance in global markets [14].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing volatility with a strong performance in the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly driven by the surge in lithium carbonate futures and geopolitical tensions supporting gold prices [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 13, the non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw a significant increase, rising over 2.8% and attracting more than 730 million yuan in capital inflow, totaling over 300 million yuan in the last two days [1]. - Key stocks in the non-ferrous sector showed varied performance, with Zijin Mining up 3.89%, Ganfeng Lithium soaring 8.71%, and Shandong Gold increasing by 5.49% [2][7]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The non-ferrous sector is currently influenced by multiple factors including frequent macroeconomic disturbances, rigid supply-side conditions, and new demand-side dynamics [5]. - Lithium, as an energy metal, is expected to benefit from export tax adjustments, potentially leading to increased battery production and tighter supply-demand dynamics for lithium carbonate [5][8]. - Gold prices are supported by rising geopolitical tensions and weak employment data, with expectations for prices to remain above $4,500 per ounce [5][9]. - Copper prices are driven by structural supply concerns and regional mismatches, with expectations for continued price increases due to a projected supply gap of over 100,000 tons by 2026 [9]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted as a comprehensive investment vehicle covering various metal sectors, with a high concentration of strategic assets [11]. - The ETF's index shows a leading concentration in copper and gold, with a copper content of 34% and gold content of 12%, making it attractive for investors looking to capitalize on the ongoing non-ferrous market cycle [11][13]. - The ETF has demonstrated superior performance with a cumulative return of 99.61% since 2022, driven by earnings rather than valuation expansion, indicating a strong investment case [13].

Group 1 - A total of 11 companies were investigated by funds on January 12, with a focus on Xingfa Group, Jintian Co., and Tianlu Technology [1] - Among the companies surveyed, Xingfa Group received the most attention with 18 funds participating, while both Jintian Co. and Tianlu Technology had 7 funds each [1] - The surveyed companies included 6 from the Shenzhen Main Board, 2 from the ChiNext Board, and 3 from the Shanghai Main Board, covering 7 different industries [1] Group 2 - The electronic industry had the highest representation with 3 companies, followed by home appliances and basic chemicals, each with 2 companies [1] - Among the surveyed companies, 2 had a total market capitalization exceeding 50 billion yuan, with one exceeding 100 billion yuan, while 5 companies had a market capitalization below 10 billion yuan [1] - In terms of market performance, 10 out of the surveyed stocks increased in value over the past 5 days, with Liou Co., Newcap, and Tianlu Technology showing the highest gains of 32.42%, 21.60%, and 16.17% respectively [1] Group 3 - In terms of net capital inflow over the past 5 days, 5 stocks saw positive inflows, with Liou Co. leading at 64.48 million yuan [2] - The only company to release an annual performance forecast among the surveyed was Whirlpool, expecting a net profit of 505 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 150% [2] - The detailed list of surveyed companies includes Xingfa Group, Tianlu Technology, Jintian Co., Newcap, Huadian Co., Liou Co., Taihe New Materials, China National Heavy Duty Truck, Changhong Meiling, Yidao Information, and Whirlpool [2]

长江铜业网讯：今日沪铜主力2603合约高开，开盘价报103040元/吨，涨60元。 宏观面上，周一美国司法部对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查，特朗普政府内部现内讧，市场担忧美联 储遭政治干扰。当日美元、美债价格下跌，债券收益率上扬，贵金属金银价格大涨并创盘中历史新高。 中国计划推出一系列财政政策提振需求，助力经济良好开局，利好工业金属。同时，电动汽车普及、数 据中心建设及全球电网升级扩建，正改变全球铜需求格局。尽管"铝代铜"呼声渐起，但铜仍是电网扩 建、可再生能源和电动汽车基础设施的核心。新的需求来源不断涌现，数据中心和人工智能基础设施正 成为铜、铝等金属的主要消费市场。而未来几年，因缺乏新供应，铜供应或短缺，推高铜价。瑞银分 析，受新项目审批受限、生产中断及产量下调影响，2025年矿铜产量增长极低，2026年增长也有限。 基本面方面，目前国内铜精矿加工费持续承压，年初海外供应端干扰再现，矿端脆弱性凸显，为铜价提 供支撑。当前国内冶炼端受冲击有限，12月精炼铜产量环比增7.5万吨，主因检修冶炼厂复产、精废价 差拉大致废产阳极铜产量增加、原料补充等。国内光伏出口退税全面取消，抢出口预期拉动金属短期需 求，带动铜价 ...

Group 1 - The macro liquidity environment has shown marginal convergence, with the central bank conducting a net withdrawal of 16,550 billion yuan through open market operations, resulting in a total net withdrawal of 5,550 billion yuan for the week [7][8] - Short-term interest rates have decreased, while long-term interest rates have increased, leading to a widening of the yield spread [7][8] - The overall structure of equity fund supply has shown significant differentiation, with a notable decline in equity fund issuance and a record high in margin financing balance, which has surpassed 2.6 trillion yuan [2][10] Group 2 - The financing net inflow has been concentrated in the electronics and non-ferrous metals sectors, while the food and beverage and building materials sectors have experienced net outflows [10][14] - The stock ETF has seen a net outflow of 1.81 billion yuan, reversing the previous week's net inflow of 354.41 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [10][12] - The overall pressure on the stock market's funding demand has eased, with equity financing dropping to 43.85 billion yuan, and the scale of restricted stock unlocks decreasing to 1,650.32 billion yuan [13][15] Group 3 - The IPO issuance for the week amounted to 15.55 billion yuan, down from 33.01 billion yuan the previous week, indicating a slowdown in new equity offerings [15][16] - The scale of directed placements has significantly decreased to 28.3 billion yuan from 172.08 billion yuan, reflecting a contraction in capital raising activities [15][16] - The net reduction in industrial capital has also decreased to 126.23 billion yuan from 146.61 billion yuan, suggesting a reduction in selling pressure from major shareholders [15][23]

Stock Market Overview - In December, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut was implemented as expected, leading to fluctuations in future rate cut expectations, while the Nasdaq index experienced volatility [1] - The A-share market showed overall fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 11 consecutive gains by the end of the month, driven by a positive tone from the Central Economic Work Conference and a declining US dollar index [1] - The Wind All A index recorded a +3.3% increase for the month, with 60% of the Shenwan first-level industries rising, particularly strong performances in defense and military (+17.22%) and non-ferrous metals (+13.68%) [1] Bond Market Overview - The bond market continued to experience wide fluctuations in December, with increased yield volatility and a steeper curve [2] - Despite relatively ample liquidity and the central bank's resumption of bond purchases providing some support, concerns over long-term bond supply and other factors kept the market in a weak oscillation pattern [2] - The 10-year government bond yield ended the month at 1.85%, reflecting an N-shaped trend throughout December [2] Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market showed a bullish atmosphere in December, with precious metals and non-ferrous sectors being the strongest performers [3] - Gold prices fluctuated, with London gold closing at $4318.25 per ounce, up 2.36% from the previous month, while copper prices also saw significant increases [3] - The oil market experienced a downward trend, with Brent crude oil closing at $60.91 per barrel, down 2.26% for the month [3] Macroeconomic Performance - In November, China's exports demonstrated strong resilience, growing by 5.9% year-on-year, driven by a significant increase in machinery and high-tech product exports [5] - However, domestic consumption remained weak, with retail sales growth slowing to 0.3% year-on-year, indicating structural constraints on internal demand [5] - Fixed asset investment continued to decline, with real estate investment adjustments dragging down overall figures, highlighting the challenges in achieving self-sustaining growth [5] Policy Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference set the tone for macroeconomic policy in 2026, focusing on addressing the structural imbalance of "strong supply and weak demand" [9] - The strategic shift will prioritize investment in human capital and social welfare, aiming to enhance income levels and consumer demand [9] - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a more active stance, with a nominal deficit rate targeted around 4.0%, while monetary policy will shift focus from total volume to price stability [10][11] Asset Allocation Analysis - In December, net buying in the stock market rebounded to over 2.5 trillion yuan, with significant inflows into equity ETFs [14] - The manufacturing PMI showed a seasonal rebound, indicating improved trade conditions and proactive inventory preparations by companies [15] - Looking ahead to 2026, the market is expected to experience structural trends, with a focus on sectors that demonstrate sustainable performance and profitability [16]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 13 日 铜：现货走强，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 103,800 | 2.36% | 103320 | -0.46% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 13,172 | 1.59% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 562,942 | -224,328 | 694,612 | 12,971 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 35,741 | 8,674 | 325,000 | -446 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 116,622 | 5,406 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 137,225 | -1,750 | 16.09% | -0.91 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic copper and aluminum futures prices continue to rise, with over 10% increase in the past month, driven by strong demand expectations from the largest consumer and the growth of data centers for artificial intelligence [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 12, 2026, international copper futures rose by 1.63%, closing at $13,209.5 per ton, nearing record highs [1] - The Industrial Nonferrous ETF (560860) has attracted significant capital inflows, with over 1 billion yuan net inflow on January 12 alone, totaling 18.8 billion yuan over the past five trading days and 54 billion yuan over the last 60 days [1][3] Group 2: ETF Details - The Industrial Nonferrous ETF (560860) tracks the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index, covering leading companies in copper, aluminum, and rare earths [4] - The ETF has seen its scale grow rapidly, surpassing 10 billion yuan on January 6 and exceeding 12 billion yuan by January 12 [3] Group 3: Demand and Supply Outlook - The current loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, combined with strong demand and limited supply, is expected to support the ongoing nonferrous metal bull market [4] - The CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index consists of 30 leading companies in the industrial nonferrous metal sector, with copper (34.4%), aluminum (21.8%), and rare earths (13.6%) being the top three metals, accounting for nearly 70% of the index [6]

两融数据显示，该股最新（1月12日）两融余额为10.96亿元，其中，融资余额为10.89亿元，近10日增加 1.01亿元，环比增长10.20%。 公司发布的三季报数据显示，前三季度公司共实现营业收入58.18亿元，同比下降0.60%，实现净利润 2.82亿元，同比下降17.19%，基本每股收益为0.2702元，加权平均净资产收益率5.12%。（数据宝） （文章来源：证券时报网） 安泰科技股价创出历史新高，截至9:35，该股上涨4.47%，股价报28.95元，成交量4018.80万股，成交金 额11.69亿元，换手率3.89%，该股最新A股总市值达304.13亿元，该股A股流通市值299.27亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，安泰科技所属的有色金属行业，目前整体跌幅为0.22%，行业内，目前股价 上涨的有40只，涨幅居前的有铂科新材、安泰科技、湖南白银等，涨幅分别为4.72%、4.47%、3.82%。 股价下跌的有101只，跌幅居前的有天力复合、银邦股份、西部材料等，跌幅分别为11.84%、10.21%、 9.98%。 ...