Group 1 - As of the end of August 2025, the total bond custody amount in China reached 174.54 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 1.51 trillion yuan month-on-month, although this was a decrease of 0.24 trillion yuan compared to the end of July [5] - The Democratic Republic of the Congo announced an extension of the cobalt export ban until October 15, 2025, transitioning to a quota system thereafter, with the country accounting for 76.3% of global cobalt production in 2024 [5] - USAC received a five-year exclusive contract from the US Department of Defense worth up to $245 million for the supply of antimony metal ingots, highlighting the strategic value of antimony [5] Group 2 - In the first eight months of 2025, the export growth rates for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers were 1%, -5%, and 45% respectively, while forklifts, machine tools, and industrial sewing machines saw growth rates of 1%, 14%, and 16% respectively [7] - The export growth rates for major engineering machinery categories, including excavators, tractors, and mining machinery, were 14%, 25%, 30%, and 23% respectively [7] Group 3 - The global market size for brain-computer interfaces is expected to reach $7.63 billion by 2029, driven by policy support and demand from conditions like stroke and ALS [8] - The expected dividend yield for Gree Electric exceeded 7% in 2025, with a historical trend indicating a bottoming characteristic, supported by a projected profit of 33 billion yuan and a 52% cash dividend rate [8]

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing a weak trend due to the "seesaw" effect between stocks and bonds, as well as the implementation of new public fund sales regulations, making it difficult for the bond market to stabilize in the short term [1][6] - As of September 24, the yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds are at 1.8125% and 2.111%, respectively, showing an increase of 1.75 and 1.9 basis points compared to the previous Friday's close [1] - The futures market for government bonds has seen declines, with the main contracts for 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year bonds dropping by 0.71%, 0.1%, 0.06%, and 0.04% respectively [1] Group 2 - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding the increase of accommodative monetary policy, as the recent press conference did not signal any immediate policy adjustments [2][3] - The September LPR (Loan Prime Rate) quotes remained unchanged for both 1-year and 5-year rates, aligning with market expectations, but reflecting a lack of signals for further monetary easing [3] - Economic data from July to August showed a decline, leading to expectations for increased accommodative monetary policy, while the potential for the RMB to appreciate and stable financial markets reduce the necessity for such measures [3] Group 3 - The deadline for public fund sales regulations is approaching, which may lead to increased redemption pressure on short-term bonds as investors shift towards bond ETFs due to higher short-term redemption fees [4] - The central bank's recent adjustments to the 14-day reverse repurchase operations indicate a shift towards fixed quantity and multi-price bidding, with a recent operation of 300 billion yuan [5] - The likelihood of the central bank restarting bond purchases in September is low, depending on signals for incremental policy and fiscal stimulus [5] Group 4 - The current global liquidity environment remains loose, with a weak dollar and high market risk appetite, contributing to a challenging environment for the bond market [6] - In the medium term, if inflation and corporate earnings data improve significantly, the bond market may enter a larger-scale "bear market" [6] - The recommendation for trading strategies is to maintain a cautious approach with a focus on trend observation and consider arbitrage opportunities in steep yield curves [6]

Group 1 - The bond futures market continued to decline overall, with a slight rebound in the afternoon, as the 30-year main contract rose by 0.11% while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year contracts fell by 0.01% each [1] - As of 4:30 PM, the yields on major interbank government bonds showed mixed results, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.75 basis points to 1.8075%, while the 30-year bond yield remained unchanged at 2.114% [1][2] - Recent adjustments in the bond market are attributed to multiple factors, including unmet policy expectations and increased short-term redemption costs for bond funds due to new public fund fee regulations [3] Group 2 - The recent bond market adjustments have led to a rise in the yields of the 10-year and 30-year government bonds, reaching previous highs, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [2][3] - Analysts suggest that the current market volatility may define future trading ranges, with the possibility of a rebound in the short term, while the medium to long-term outlook remains uncertain [3] - Investment strategies recommended include cautious trading for short-term funds and gradual allocation for long-term investments, focusing on high-quality short to medium-duration bonds [3]

Report on Local Government Bond Supply and Trading Tracking 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report analyzes the supply and trading characteristics of local government bonds, including the issuance rhythm, pricing, and secondary - market trading performance, to help investors understand the current situation of the local government bond market [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First - level Supply Rhythm - **Issuance Scale**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, local government bonds issued a total of 188.52 billion yuan, with new special bonds at 97.82 billion yuan and refinancing special bonds at 46.09 billion yuan. As of September 19, 2025, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in September reached 52.8 billion yuan, accounting for 6.7% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [3][10]. - **Funding Allocation**: "Special new special bonds" and "ordinary/project revenue" are the main areas for special bond fund allocation [3][10]. - **Issuance Pricing**: The issuance interest rate of 30 - year local bonds reached a new high this year. The spreads between the issuance interest rates of 30 - year and 10 - year local bonds and the same - maturity treasury bonds widened to 20.8BP and 23.1BP respectively, while the issuance spread of 20 - year local bonds narrowed slightly to 20.6BP [3][16]. - **Regional Distribution**: In September, Guizhou, Guangdong, Henan and other regions were the main areas for local bond issuance. The issuance scale of local bonds over 20 years in Guangdong and Hunan reached 59.61 billion yuan and 30.25 billion yuan respectively. The number of regions with an average coupon rate higher than 2.3% increased, and the local government bonds in Hunan even rose above 2.4% [3][18]. 3.2 Second - level Trading Characteristics - **Anti - decline Ability**: Local government bonds over 10 years are more resistant to decline than the same - maturity treasury bonds and credit bonds. Last week, the indexes of 7 - 10 - year and over 10 - year local bonds fell by 0.07% and 0.28% respectively. The 7 - 10 - year variety performed worse than the same - maturity treasury bonds, while the over 10 - year variety had better anti - volatility ability than the same - maturity treasury bonds and credit bonds [4][23]. - **Trading Activity**: Government bonds in Guangdong, Hunan and other provinces were relatively actively traded, with the average trading term in both provinces above 26 years. The trading volume in Hunan and Guangxi increased month - on - month [4][23]. - **Trading Yield**: The average yield of local government bonds in mainstream regions is basically above 2%. The yields in regions with increased trading volume all exceed 2.25%, especially the local bonds in Guangxi, which reached 2.34% [4][23].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese bond market has experienced healthy and rapid development, significantly enhancing its international influence and attractiveness, while playing a crucial role in serving the real economy and optimizing financing structures [1][2]. Group 1: Market Development and Performance - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the substantial potential for further opening of the bond market, with ongoing support for the construction of Hong Kong as an international financial center [2][3]. - The net financing scale of bonds has increased from approximately 30% of total social financing five years ago to over 40% currently, indicating a more active bond trading environment [3]. - As of August 2025, the total balance of the Chinese bond market reached 192 trillion RMB, ranking second globally, with bond issuance exceeding 59 trillion RMB in the first eight months of the year, a 14% year-on-year increase [3]. Group 2: Investment Value and Yield - Chinese bonds offer high nominal and real yields, ranking among the top globally, with a 70% return on investment over the past decade, regardless of foreign exchange hedging [4]. - The actual yield of RMB bonds remains relatively high, providing a solid avenue for value preservation and appreciation for global RMB holders [4]. - RMB bonds exhibit low correlation with G7 and other emerging market bonds, highlighting their diversification benefits [4]. Group 3: Foreign Investment and Market Access - Currently, foreign investors hold only 2% of the bond market, indicating significant room for growth compared to developed and some emerging markets [5]. - As of August 2025, nearly 1,170 foreign institutional investors have entered the Chinese bond market, with total holdings around 3.9 trillion RMB, a nearly fourfold increase since the Bond Connect was launched [6]. - The trading volume of bonds by foreign institutional investors reached approximately 11.8 trillion RMB in the first eight months of the year, with the Northbound Bond Connect accounting for about 7.2 trillion RMB [6]. Group 4: Future Initiatives and Market Integration - The PBOC plans to enhance cross-border investment and financing convenience, focusing on four key initiatives to support the offshore RMB market and improve market openness [8][9]. - These initiatives include supporting foreign investors in bond repurchase transactions, expanding the "Swap Connect" trading limits, and increasing the availability of high-quality offshore RMB assets in Hong Kong [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The attractiveness of the Chinese bond market has significantly increased, with the People's Bank of China emphasizing its rapid development and international influence [1][3]. Group 1: Market Development and Growth - The Chinese bond market's net financing scale has risen from approximately 30% to over 40% of total social financing in the past five years [3]. - The bond issuance scale exceeded 59 trillion RMB in the first eight months of this year, marking a 14% year-on-year increase [3]. - As of August 2025, the total balance of the Chinese bond market reached 192 trillion RMB, ranking second globally [3]. Group 2: Investment Value and Returns - Chinese bonds have shown high nominal and real yields, ranking among the top globally [4]. - Over the past decade, holding a portfolio of Chinese bonds from the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index yielded approximately 70% returns [4]. - The actual yield of RMB bonds remains relatively high, providing a good value preservation and appreciation avenue for global RMB holders [4]. Group 3: Risk and Liquidity - RMB bonds exhibit high diversification value, with low correlation to yields from G7 and other emerging market bonds [5]. - The trading activity of RMB bonds is robust, with an average turnover rate of nearly four times for government and policy financial bonds [5]. - The bid-ask spread for the most active interest rate bonds is around 0.02 basis points, comparable to developed markets [5]. Group 4: Foreign Investment and Market Access - Currently, foreign investors hold only 2% of the bond market, indicating significant potential for further opening [6]. - Nearly 1,170 foreign institutional investors have entered the Chinese bond market, with total holdings around 3.9 trillion RMB, a nearly fourfold increase since the Bond Connect was launched [8]. - In the first eight months of this year, the transaction volume of foreign institutional investors reached approximately 11.8 trillion RMB [8]. Group 5: Future Initiatives and Support - The People's Bank of China plans to support various foreign institutional investors in conducting bond repurchase transactions in the Chinese bond market [12]. - The daily trading net limit for the "Swap Connect" will be increased from 20 billion to 45 billion RMB to facilitate interest rate risk management [12]. - The central bank aims to accelerate the listing of RMB government bond futures in Hong Kong [13].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the significant growth and international influence of China's bond market, highlighting its role in supporting the real economy and optimizing financing structures [1][2] - The PBOC plans to continue enhancing the integration of the Hong Kong and mainland bond markets, aiming for greater acceptance of mainland bonds as collateral in global markets [1][4] Group 1: Market Development - China's bond net financing scale has increased from approximately 30% of total social financing five years ago to over 40% currently [2] - The turnover rate of government bonds has risen from 2.4% to 3.8% over the same period, indicating increased trading activity [2] - As of August 2025, the total balance of China's bond market is projected to reach 192 trillion RMB, making it the second largest in the world [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - In the first eight months of this year, the issuance scale of Chinese bonds exceeded 59 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14% [2] - The net financing of bonds reached 11.8 trillion RMB, accounting for 44.5% of the increase in social financing during the same period [2] - The actual yield of RMB bonds remains relatively high, providing a valuable preservation and appreciation avenue for global RMB holders [3] Group 3: International Participation - Nearly 1,170 foreign institutional investors have entered the Chinese bond market, with total holdings around 3.9 trillion RMB, a nearly fourfold increase since the Bond Connect program was launched [5] - The trading volume of foreign institutional investors in the bond market reached approximately 11.8 trillion RMB in the first eight months of this year [5] - The proportion of foreign investors holding Chinese bonds is currently at 2%, indicating substantial potential for further opening [3] Group 4: Future Initiatives - The PBOC plans to support various foreign institutional investors in conducting bond repurchase transactions in the Chinese bond market [6] - The daily trading net limit for the "Swap Connect" will be increased from 20 billion RMB to 45 billion RMB to facilitate interest rate risk management [6] - The PBOC aims to accelerate the launch of RMB government bond futures in Hong Kong to enhance cross-border investment and financing convenience [6]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing measures to enhance cross-border investment and financing, aiming to accelerate the development of the offshore RMB market [3][4] Group 1: Measures to Enhance Cross-Border Investment - PBOC will support foreign institutional investors in conducting bond repurchase transactions in the Chinese bond market to improve the efficiency of RMB bonds [3] - The daily trading net limit for the swap market will be increased from 20 billion to 45 billion RMB, facilitating investors in managing interest rate risks [3] - More high-credit-rated RMB assets, such as offshore RMB government bonds, will be provided in the Hong Kong market to enrich the RMB product system [3] - PBOC is working towards the launch of RMB government bond futures in Hong Kong [3] Group 2: Growth of China's Bond Market - As of August, the total balance of China's bond market reached 192 trillion RMB, ranking second globally [3] - In the first eight months of this year, the bond issuance scale exceeded 59 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14% [3] - Net financing through bonds accounted for 44.5% of the total social financing increment during the same period, making it the second-largest financing channel for the real economy [3] Group 3: International Influence and Investor Confidence - Nearly 1,170 foreign institutional investors from around 80 countries have entered the Chinese bond market, with total holdings reaching approximately 3.9 trillion RMB, a nearly fourfold increase since the Bond Connect was launched [4] - China's bonds now account for the second-largest share in the FTSE Russell Global Government Bond Index and the third-largest in the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index, reflecting strong global investor confidence [4][6] Group 4: Market Maturity and Development Potential - The proportion of net bond financing in total social financing has increased from around 30% five years ago to over 40% [5] - The annual turnover rate of government bonds has risen from 2.4 to 3.8 over the same period, indicating increased market activity [5] - Currently, foreign investors hold only 2% of the total bond market, suggesting significant potential for further opening [6] Group 5: Enhancements in Bond Connect Mechanisms - The Bond Connect "Southbound" initiative has seen significant growth, with the number of bonds under custody reaching 971 and a balance of 574.21 billion RMB, reflecting a more than 26-fold and 102-fold increase, respectively, since its launch [7][8] - Recent optimizations to the "Southbound" mechanism include extending settlement times and expanding the range of participating institutions to include non-bank entities [8]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority hosted the first Hong Kong Fixed Income and Currency Forum, where the Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, Zou Lan, emphasized the unique advantages of RMB bond assets and the robust development of the Chinese bond market [1] - Zou announced four significant measures aimed at enhancing cross-border investment and financing convenience, promoting high-level financial market openness, and accelerating the development of the offshore RMB market [1][6] Group 1: Chinese Bond Market Development - China's bond market ranks second globally, with a total balance of 192 trillion RMB as of August 2025, and a bond issuance scale exceeding 59 trillion RMB in the first eight months of 2025, reflecting a 14% year-on-year growth [2] - The net financing from bonds accounted for 44.5% of the total social financing increment during the same period, indicating its critical role in financing the real economy [2] - The proportion of net bond financing in total social financing has increased from around 30% five years ago to over 40% currently, showcasing the growing importance of the bond market [2] Group 2: International Investor Interest - Nearly 1,170 foreign institutional investors have entered the Chinese bond market, with a total holding of approximately 3.9 trillion RMB, marking a nearly fourfold increase since the launch of the Bond Connect [3] - The Chinese bond market's stability amid global financial volatility has led to its increased recognition, with its representation in major global indices exceeding initial expectations [3] - The International Monetary Fund has raised China's economic growth forecast, reflecting international confidence in China's economic prospects [3] Group 3: Bond Yield and Investment Value - Chinese bonds offer competitive short-term and long-term yields, with a 70% return on investments in the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index over the past decade [4] - The actual yield of RMB bonds remains relatively high, providing a solid value retention and appreciation avenue for global RMB holders [4] - RMB bonds exhibit low correlation with G7 and other emerging market bonds, enhancing their diversification value [4] Group 4: Future Measures and Market Potential - The People's Bank of China plans to support various foreign institutional investors in conducting bond repurchase transactions to improve the efficiency of RMB bond usage [7] - The daily trading limit for the swap market will be increased from 20 billion RMB to 45 billion RMB, facilitating better interest rate risk management for investors [7] - The measures announced reflect a commitment to further integrate Hong Kong into the global financial system and enhance its status as an international financial center [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - RWA bonds, as a key product integrating "real - asset credit anchoring" and "blockchain technology enabling", are reshaping the operation logic of the traditional debt - financing market. The report comprehensively analyzes RWA bonds from multiple aspects such as core definition, operation mechanism, comparison with traditional bonds and ABS, global policy environment and regulatory framework, typical cases, and investor participation paths [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 RWA Bond Core Definition - **Concept Definition**: RWA bonds are standardized debt - financing tools that tokenize the creditor's rights of real - world assets with stable cash flows through blockchain technology. They have "dual - anchoring" features, anchoring both the cash flows of underlying assets and the income - distribution rules of smart contracts, and are classified as "security tokens" subject to securities regulations [13][14]. - **Underlying Asset Types and Characteristics**: There are three types of underlying assets. Financial assets, including accounts receivable, corporate loans, and national debts, are the mainstream with stable cash flows and low verification difficulty. Physical assets, such as real estate, infrastructure, and charging piles, have anti - inflation properties but long valuation periods and poor liquidity. Equity assets, like carbon - emission rights and intellectual property rights, are scarce and suitable for long - term allocation [15][16]. 3.2 RWA Bond Operation Mechanism - **Asset Confirmation and Pooling**: For non - standardized assets, asset confirmation uses the multi - node consensus of the alliance chain to generate "on - chain ownership certificates", and then packs the assets into an asset pool. For standardized financial assets, the issuer purchases the underlying assets through a licensed custodian, and the custodian issues a legal holding certificate, which is then uploaded to the chain [19][21]. - **Chain Mapping and Token Generation**: Non - standardized assets need to disassemble the asset - pool rights and interests into "on - chain quantifiable units" and associate them with on - chain ownership certificates, and then issue standardized security tokens. Standardized financial assets can be directly mapped by unit, and the token generation often uses a highly compatible general standard [22][25]. - **Trading, Circulation, and Settlement**: Non - standardized assets can be traded on compliant centralized exchanges or decentralized exchanges (DEX) with a KYC check. The settlement cycle is instant, and the T + 0 arrival is achieved. Standardized financial assets are traded on Layer2 DEX and licensed centralized exchanges, and the smart contract realizes instant "token - funds" transfer [26][30]. - **Income Distribution and Asset Monitoring**: For non - standardized assets, the income is distributed through IoT devices to collect data and smart contracts to execute the distribution rules. Asset monitoring uses IoT devices to collect data and establish an early - warning mechanism. Standardized financial assets have a simpler income - distribution process, and the asset monitoring focuses on price and ownership risks [31][34]. 3.3 Comparison with Traditional Bonds and ABS - **Compared with ABS**: RWA bonds are more efficient and intelligent. They change from an "off - line manual - driven" model to an "on - chain algorithm - driven" model, with a more transparent process, lower participation thresholds, and better risk control [37][38]. - **Multi - Dimensional Comparison**: In terms of technical foundation, asset scope, liquidity, regulatory framework, investor threshold, information transparency, and issuance cost, RWA bonds, traditional bonds, and ABS have significant differences. RWA bonds have a wider asset scope, higher liquidity, and lower investor thresholds [44][45]. 3.4 Global RWA Bond Policy Environment and Regulatory Framework - **United States**: It is the largest RWA bond market globally. After experiencing the technology - exploration period, institutional - trial period, and explosive - growth period, it has achieved significant market - scale growth. The passage of the CLARITY Act has established a dynamic regulatory framework, and technological infrastructure improvements and institutional capital inflows have also promoted market development [48][50]. - **Europe**: It has developed from infrastructure pilots to a unified framework under MiCA. After the phased and full implementation of MiCA, it has eliminated the regulatory differences among countries, and technological improvements have also met institutional requirements [51][54]. - **China**: It features a dual - track pattern of cautious piloting in the Chinese mainland (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) and international linkage in Hong Kong. Through rule recognition, asset interconnection, and technological interconnection, a cross - border compliance closed - loop has been formed [55][58]. 3.5 RWA Typical Cases - **Shenzhen Futian RWA Digital Bond**: Issued in 2025 with a scale of 500 million yuan and a coupon rate of 2.62%, it is the world's first public - offering RWA bond, listed on both the Macau Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, with the underlying assets being the income rights of charging piles and office buildings [60]. - **Langxin Group Charging Pile RWA**: Issued in 2024 with a scale of 100 million yuan, it is the first new - energy RWA in China, anchoring the income rights of 9000 charging piles [63]. - **GCL - New Energy Photovoltaic Power Station RWA**: Issued in 2024 with a scale of 200 million yuan, it anchors the income rights of an 82MW photovoltaic power station and bundles carbon - reduction benefits [64]. 3.6 RWA Bond Investor Participation Paths and Thresholds - **Primary Market Subscription**: Chinese mainland (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) institutional investors can subscribe through direct connection with overseas licensed underwriting institutions or indirect participation through domestic QDII products [68]. - **Secondary Market Trading**: They can trade through the Hong Kong MOX, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Cross - border Connect, or licensed digital exchanges, with different trading objects and risk levels for each channel [69][70].