| | 然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年6月11日 | | 越常勤 | Z0021810 | | | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | eHaH | | 命神 6月10日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 13650 | | 云南国富关部 胶(SCRWF): 下海 13850 | 200 | 1.47% | | | -75 | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) 45 | 120 | 160.00% | 元/吨 | | 13650 | | 泰标混合胶报价 13750 | 100 | 0.73% | | | -75 | | 非标价差 -ટેર | 20 | 26.67% | | | 45.20 | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 46.20 | 1.00 | 2.21% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 56.00 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 56.25 | 0.25 | 0.45% | | | 12200 | | ...

宏观 股指 市场分析：当日沪深两市成交额 1.45 万亿元，较前日放量 10.57%。银行、创新药等防御性 板块领涨，而半导体、航天航空等高波动板块承压。上证 50 主力合约 IH2506 持仓量环比下 降 2.82%，短期多空分歧加剧。中证 1000 收盘价接近压力位 6226 左右，若突破需成交量配 合；沪深 300 收盘价接近支撑位 3514 左右，短期反弹动能不足。 参考观点：中证 1000 波动率较高，建议关注 6227 附近压力位突破情况；上证 50 建议结合 持仓量变化判断趋势持续性；沪深 300 波动率处于低位，但成交额占比稳定，可作为中长期 配置参考；中证 1000 与沪深 300 的波动率比值（1.56）接近 2024 年均值（1.62），可关注 均值回归机会。 原油 宏观与地缘：上周五美国非农数据超预期，削弱美联储降息紧迫性，同时中美第二轮谈判， 市场对经贸缓和有一定预期，原油价格或偏强震荡，关注 WTI 主力 65 美元/桶关键位置。 市场分析：基本面看，OPEC 大幅调降未来两年全球需求增速，美国贸易战升级，特朗普政 府政策多变，引发市场对全球需求担忧。库存方面，美原油库存虽然下滑， ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.09 6 月开始逐步迎来低基数期 [Table_Industry] 建材 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [table_Authors] 鲍雁辛(分析师) 花健祎(分析师) 巫恺洋(研究助理) | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | --- | --- | --- | | 登记编号 S0880513070005 | S0880521010001 | S0880123070145 | 本报告导读： 水泥行业价格调整后开始出现企稳信号，消费建材改善竞争环境和盈利还在继续。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 究 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Summary] 水泥：本周(0531-0606)全国水泥市场价格环比回落 1.2%。价格回落 区域主要是山西、上海、江苏、安徽、湖北、湖南和广东等地，幅 度 10-20 元/吨；价格推涨地区有江苏、上海、浙江和广西地区，幅 度 20-30 元/吨。六月初，受高考、农忙和高温等多重不利因素影响， 国内 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Viewpoints - The sales of the top 100 real estate companies are weak, with a year-on-year decline of 10.4% in sales amount and 23.6% in sales area in May 2025, indicating a need for continued policy support for the real estate sector [5][6] - The report recommends focusing on the domestic substitution chain and the African building materials chain, with leading companies in the existing market being the main focus for the year [9] Summary by Sections Real Estate Sales - In May 2025, the total sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies decreased by 10.4% year-on-year, while the sales area dropped by 23.6%. The month-on-month sales amount increased by 4.2%, and the sales area rose by 2.7%, but these figures are still below the average from 2018 to 2024 [5][6] Central Government Support - The central government plans to provide over 20 billion yuan to support urban renewal actions in 20 cities, focusing on areas such as underground pipeline updates, sewage treatment, and the renovation of historical and old districts [6][21] Cement Market - The cement shipment rate remained stable month-on-month at approximately 48%, with a year-on-year decline of 2.3 percentage points. The average price of cement was 368.55 yuan per ton, down 4.19 yuan from the previous week [7][26] Glass Market - The domestic float glass market showed weak transactions, with prices continuing to decline. The average price was 71.59 yuan per weight box, down 1.25 yuan from the previous week [8][40] Recommended Companies - For domestic substitution, companies such as China National Materials, Meijia Xincai, and Puyang Huicheng are recommended due to their strong positions in the special glass fiber market. For the African chain, Keda Manufacturing is highlighted as a local leader with advantages in production and branding [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall: The report does not provide a unified industry - wide investment rating. For individual products, it gives ratings such as "oscillating" for steel, iron ore, scrap steel, silicon - manganese, and silicon - iron; "oscillating weakly" for glass, soda ash, and coking coal; and "oscillating with a downward view" for coke [7][8][11][12][14] 2. Core View of the Report - The black building materials market is in a low - level oscillation state. After a short - term rebound driven by favorable news, prices are under pressure again due to the approaching off - season. The demand for building materials remains weak, and the demand for industrial materials is facing a decline. Although some production links are in a state of loss, the overall profitability of steel mills is stable, and the conditions for negative feedback are not yet mature. The prices of various products are expected to show different trends of oscillation or weakening [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mines are in the end - of - fiscal - year and end - of - quarter shipment rush, with an expected seasonal increase in shipment volume, which will remain high until early July [2][7] - Demand: The profitability of steel enterprises is stable, and the molten iron output has slightly decreased but is expected to remain high in the short term [2][7] - Inventory: The short - term inventory accumulation pressure is small. At the end of the month, the port may have a slight inventory increase when the ore arrives at the port, but the inventory increase range is limited, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The short - term fundamentals are healthy, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate [2][7] 3.2 Carbon Element Coking Coal - Supply: Although the output of some individual coal mines has decreased slightly, most coal mines in the production area maintain normal production, and the coking coal output is still at a relatively high level. The actual transaction of Mongolian coal is limited, and the port inventory continues to accumulate, so the overall supply is still loose [3][11] - Demand: The coke output has started to decline. Under the environment of increasing inventory pressure on coke enterprises and shrinking coking profits, the coke output tends to decline [3][11] - Price: The supply contraction is limited, the upstream inventory pressure continues to increase, and the price lacks the driving force for a trend - like increase. It is expected to operate weakly [3][11] Coke - Supply: The coke output is at a high level but has started to decline, and the inventory pressure on coke enterprises continues to increase [3][10] - Demand: The molten iron output is declining, and the demand for coke is expected to weaken further [10] - Price: After the third round of price cuts, there is still a downward expectation in the market. The price is expected to face downward pressure [8][10] 3.3 Alloys Silicon - Manganese - Cost: The market is cautiously waiting and watching, and the manganese ore price still shows signs of decline [5][14] - Supply: The production cost in some areas has been slightly repaired, and the supply has increased slightly, but some areas are still in a loss state, and the manufacturers' willingness to ship is limited [5][14] - Demand: The black market is entering the off - season, the market sentiment is cautious, and the downstream has a strong attitude of pressing prices. The steel tenders are in progress, and the pricing is low [5][14] - Price: The supply - demand situation tends to be loose, and the manganese ore price is expected to decline. However, due to cost inversion, the manufacturers' willingness to ship is low. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate [5][14] Silicon - Iron - Cost: The cost may still have a dragging effect, and the Lanzhou - carbon market is stable [14] - Supply: The supply has increased slightly [5][14] - Demand: The terminal steel consumption is about to enter the off - season, the downstream has a strong willingness to reduce inventory, and the market sentiment is cautious [5][14] - Price: The disk is expected to be under pressure and oscillate in the short term. The future market should pay attention to steel tenders and production conditions [5][14] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Demand: The off - season demand is declining, the deep - processing demand is still weak year - on - year, and the spot price is falling [5][12] - Supply: There are expectations of cold - repair and ignition, and there are still 6 production lines waiting to produce glass, so the supply pressure still exists [5][12] - Price: The disk is at a discount to the spot, but the price cut of Hubei's spot guides the disk down. The short - term view is oscillating weakly [5][12] Soda Ash - Supply: The over - supply situation remains unchanged, and the maintenance is gradually resuming [5][12] - Demand: The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to be for rigid procurement, and the growth of photovoltaic glass melting may not be sustainable [12] - Price: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, the price center will continue to decline [5][12] 3.5 Other Products Steel - Demand: The demand for the five major steel products has weakened this week, especially for rebar [7] - Supply: The molten iron output is at a high level, and the steel output has not decreased significantly, but the molten iron output may have reached its peak [7] - Price: Affected by falling raw material prices and pessimistic expectations for domestic demand, the short - term steel price is expected to oscillate [7] Scrap Steel - Supply: The arrival volume has decreased again this week, and the resources are slightly tight [8] - Demand: The overall daily consumption of scrap steel in long - and short - process has slightly increased, but the cost of electric furnaces at off - peak hours is in a deeper loss [8] - Price: Due to the pessimistic market expectation for off - season demand, the price of scrap steel is expected to oscillate following the finished products [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Natural Rubber**: Short - term macro warming drives rubber price rebound, but under the expectation of increasing supply and weak demand, the rubber price is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds above 14,000. Attention should be paid to the raw material volume in each production area and macro events [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The demand for industrial silicon is expected to pick up, but the supply increase is larger. The inventory is expected to accumulate, and the price is under pressure. However, the rebound of coal prices provides some support, and the price may fluctuate at a low level [3]. - **Polysilicon**: In June, there is no obvious improvement in fundamentals. There is a risk of inventory accumulation, and the cost support may decline. It is recommended to close long positions and even try shorting on high prices [5]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: For soda ash, in the long - term, there is still pressure to accumulate inventory after maintenance. It is advisable to consider 7 - 9 calendar spreads and short on rebounds in the far - month contracts. For glass, it still faces over - supply pressure after the short - term market sentiment boost. The price may be strong in the short - term but will be under pressure later [6]. 3. Summary by Catalog Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: On June 6, the price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 13,750 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan or 1.48% from June 5. The full - milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) was 100 yuan/ton, up 1900% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 890 yuan/ton on June 6, down 10 yuan or 1.14% from June 5 [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, Thailand's production was 105,700 dry tons, down 29.16% from the previous period; Indonesia's production was 194,100 dry tons, down 7.26%. The weekly start - up rate of semi - steel tires was 73.86%, down 4.39 percentage points [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory was 614,584 tons on June 6, up 0.06% from the previous day. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 21,873 tons, up 23.99% [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: On June 6, the price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon was 8,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from June 5. The basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) was 1,015 yuan/ton, up 16.67% [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2506 - 2507 spread was 0 yuan/ton on June 6, up 100% from June 5 [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the national industrial silicon production was 300,800 tons, down 12.10% from the previous month. The production of organic silicon DMC was 184,000 tons, up 6.48% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: The Xinjiang inventory was 190,800 tons on June 6, up 0.37% from the previous day. The social inventory was 587,000 tons, down 0.34% [3]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: On June 6, the average price of N - type re -投料 was 36,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from June 5. The N - type material basis (average price) was 1,760 yuan/ton, down 10.20% [5]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The bs2506 contract price was 34,740 yuan/ton on June 6, up 0.58% from June 5. The PS2506 - PS2507 spread was 2,260 yuan/ton, up 43.49% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the polysilicon production was 96,100 tons, up 0.73% from the previous month. The weekly silicon wafer production was 130,400 GM, down 2.69% [5]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory was 269,000 tons on June 6, down 0.37% from the previous day. The silicon wafer inventory was 20,020 GM, up 7.81% [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: On June 6, the North China glass quotation was 1,160 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The glass 2509 contract price was 997 yuan/ton, up 3.53% [6]. - **Soda Ash**: On June 6, the North China soda ash quotation was 1,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The soda ash 2509 contract price was 1,212 yuan/ton, up 0.73% [6]. - **Supply**: In late May, the soda ash operation rate was 78.57%, down 0.08% from the previous period. The weekly soda ash production was 685,000 tons, up 1.08% [6]. - **Inventory**: In late May, the glass inventory was 67,762,000 square meters, down 0.01% from the previous period. The soda ash factory inventory was 1.6243 million tons, up 1.37% [6]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area in real estate was - 18.73%, an increase of 2.99 percentage points from the previous period; the completion area growth rate was - 11.68%, an increase of 15.67 percentage points [6].

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑材料 建筑材料行业跟踪周报 家庭消费仍有潜力，期待服务消费刺激 2025 年 06 月 08 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 黄诗涛 执业证书：S0600521120004 huangshitao@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 房大磊 执业证书：S0600522100001 fangdl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石峰源 执业证书：S0600521120001 shify@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -20% -16% -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 2024/6/11 2024/10/9 2025/2/6 2025/6/6 建筑材料 沪深300 相关研究 《建筑业 PMI 底部区间波动，推荐消 费建材》 2025-06-03 《继续推荐消费建材》 2025-05-25 东吴证券研究所 1 / 20 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周（2025.6.3–2025.6.6，下同）：本周建筑材料板块（SW）涨跌幅 0.63%， 同期沪深 300、万得全 A 指数 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights an increase in infrastructure expectations in the western region, with significant opportunities emerging in the building materials sector [2][3] - The real estate market is expected to stabilize with government support, as indicated in the 2025 Government Work Report, which aims to promote a recovery in the real estate market [2][14] - The report identifies key projects that will drive demand for building materials, including the Three Gorges New Channel and the Mêdog Hydropower Station, which are expected to significantly boost cement demand [3][19] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.88%, while the building materials sector (CITIC) increased by 0.59% this week, with most sub-sectors showing positive returns [12] - Notable stock performances included Shandong Glass Fiber (+18.4%) and Quartz Shares (+14.1%) [12] Western Infrastructure Expectations - The report notes a significant increase in special bond issuance in central and western regions, with Sichuan (+162%), Chongqing (+35%), and Shaanxi (+1162%) showing remarkable growth [3][16] - Fixed asset investments in Tibet and Xinjiang also increased by 16.5% and 17.2% respectively, indicating a positive outlook for the region [3] Key Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks based on project involvement: Huaxin Cement, Xizang Tianlu, and Qingsong Jianhua, among others, which are expected to benefit from upcoming infrastructure projects [3][19] - The focus is on traditional building materials companies that are expected to see long-term value, as well as new energy materials that are likely to continue their growth trajectory [19] Building Materials Sub-Sector Tracking - Cement prices have shown a slight decline of 1.2% this week, with regional variations in price adjustments [17] - The glass market, particularly photovoltaic glass, is experiencing price drops due to weak demand, with significant inventory levels reported [17][18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillating". Specific ratings for each variety are as follows: - Steel: Oscillating [7] - Iron ore: Oscillating [7] - Scrap steel: Oscillating [7] - Coke: Oscillating weakly [7] - Coking coal: Oscillating weakly [11] - Glass: Oscillating weakly [12] - Soda ash: Oscillating weakly [12] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [13] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [14] 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, the macro - positive sentiment and coking coal news catalyzed a strong rebound after the previous price decline. The steel inventory is in a destocking state, and the iron ore supply - demand is in a tight balance, leading to more optimistic voices in the market. However, the domestic construction and manufacturing industries are about to enter the off - season, and the "rush to export" is also under - performing, with limited demand growth. So the rebound height is still limited, and attention should be paid to subsequent policy guidance [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Element - Supply: Overseas incremental release is lower than expected, with a year - on - year decline in cumulative shipments throughout the year, and the new project ramp - up has slowed down, reducing the annual increment [2]. - Demand: Steel mills' profitability is stable, and hot metal production has slightly decreased, expected to remain at a high level in the short term. Under the tight supply - demand balance, the inventory accumulation pressure before September is small, and the real supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. Carbon Element - Coking Coal - Supply: Although there are expectations of supply tightening due to safety accidents in Shanxi and the news of Mongolia's coal export tariff increase, currently, most coal mines in the production area are operating normally, and the coking coal output remains high. The news of Mongolia's export tax rate change is unconfirmed, and the port clearance continues at a high level, so the overall supply is still loose [3]. - Demand: Coke production remains high but is expected to decline due to increased inventory pressure and shrinking coking profits. During the price cut cycle, coke enterprises' enthusiasm for raw material replenishment decreases, increasing the upstream inventory pressure of coking coal. Overall, the coking coal supply - demand remains loose, and the price lacks upward momentum [3]. - Coke: Steel mills have initiated the third round of price cuts. The supply is stable, but the demand is weakening due to the decline in hot metal production and the approaching off - season of steel consumption. With the continuous decline of coking coal prices and weakening demand, the coke price is expected to be weak in the short term [10]. Alloys - Silicomanganese: The market sentiment is cautious. The cost of manganese ore is under pressure as the south32 Australian ore is arriving at the port this week. The domestic market has not reacted significantly to Gabon's ban on manganese ore exports starting in 2029. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is weak due to the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - Ferrosilicon: The supply has increased slightly, and the downstream is in the off - season with a strong willingness to destock. The demand is expected to weaken further, and the cost may still have a negative impact. The price is expected to be under pressure in the short term [14]. Glass - Demand: In the off - season, the demand is declining, and the deep - processing demand is still weak year - on - year. - Supply: There are both cold - repair and restart plans, and the supply pressure remains. The upstream inventory is accumulating, and the mid - stream inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price cuts of Hubei manufacturers [5]. Soda Ash - Supply: The over - supply situation remains unchanged, and the maintenance is gradually resuming. - Demand: The heavy - soda demand is expected to be mainly for rigid procurement, and the growth of photovoltaic glass daily melting may not be sustainable. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and decline in the long term [5].

Group 1: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core Viewpoints Spot prices are stable, polysilicon futures fluctuate and decline. In June, supply and demand are expected to remain weak. If there is no further production cut in polysilicon, there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is recommended that long - position holders close their positions in advance [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average prices of N - type reclaimed feedstock, P - type cauliflower feedstock, N - type granular silicon, etc., remained unchanged on June 5 compared to June 4. The basis of N - type feedstock and cauliflower feedstock increased by 35.64% and 7.42% respectively [1]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: PS2506 dropped by 1.47% to 34540 yuan/ton. The spread between PS2506 - PS2507 decreased by 46.34% [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: Silicon wafer production decreased by 2.69% to 13.04 GM, while polysilicon production increased by 1.85% to 2.20 million tons [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, polysilicon production increased by 0.73% to 9.61 million tons. In April, polysilicon imports decreased by 7.10%, exports decreased by 10.40%, and net exports remained unchanged. Silicon wafer production in May decreased by 0.50% to 58.06 GM. In April, silicon wafer imports decreased by 32.03%, exports increased by 28.29%, and net exports increased by 42.57% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.37% to 26.90 million tons, while silicon wafer inventory increased by 7.81% to 20.02 GM. Polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 5.73% to 2030 [1]. Group 2: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core Viewpoints Industrial silicon futures opened low, fluctuated, and slightly declined. The fundamentals continue to face pressure from high supply and high warehouse receipts. Although demand is expected to recover, it is difficult to digest the relatively high increase in supply. Supply is expected to grow significantly, and prices will remain under pressure. Attention should be paid to coal price changes [3]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis of the Main Contract**: The prices of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged, while the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon decreased by 0.56%. The basis of various types of industrial silicon decreased [3]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread between 2506 - 2507 increased by 86.54%, while the spread between 2507 - 2508 decreased by 150.00% [3]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In April, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10%, with significant decreases in Xinjiang and increases in Yunnan and Sichuan. The organic silicon DMC production increased by 6.48%, and the polysilicon production increased by 0.73%. The national industrial silicon start - up rate decreased by 11.37% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory increased by 0.37%, Yunnan's increased by 1.62%, and Sichuan's increased by 0.88%. Social inventory decreased by 0.34%, order inventory decreased by 0.80%, and non - warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 0.17% [3]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core Viewpoints - **Soda Ash**: Affected by macro news, the futures rebounded at night, but the fundamentals remained unchanged. The market sentiment was weak, and there was still pressure to accumulate inventory in the long - term. It is recommended to consider the 7 - 9 positive spread and short - term high - selling operations for the far - month contracts [4]. - **Glass**: Affected by macro news, the futures rebounded at night. The spot market was weak, and there was pressure to accumulate inventory after June. It is expected that the price will continue to be under pressure and operate weakly in the short - term [4]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, and Central China remained unchanged, while the price in South China decreased by 0.76%. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 decreased by 2.09% and 2.53% respectively [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased by 1.36% and 1.76% respectively [4]. - **Supply Volume**: Soda ash start - up rate decreased by 0.08%, weekly production increased by 1.08%, float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.64%, and photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.01%, soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.37%, and soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased by 4.79% [4]. - **Real Estate Data (Year - on - Year)**: New construction area increased by 2.99%, construction area decreased by 7.56%, completion area increased by 15.67%, and sales area increased by 12.13% [4]. Group 4: Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core Viewpoints In the short - term, the macro - economic recovery drives the rubber price to rebound. However, with the expectation of increasing supply and weakening demand, the rubber price is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds above 14000. Attention should be paid to the raw material supply in each production area and macro - event disturbances [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber increased by 1.12%, and the basis increased by 101.96%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.74% [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.39%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 40.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 6.40% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India decreased, while China's production increased. The start - up rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased, and domestic tire production and exports decreased [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory increased by 0.06%, and natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 59.49% [5].