Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints - Keep an eye on the impact of the new US tariff policy on upstream prices and the advancement of pension - service - related programs [1] - Observe the trends of prices,开工率, sales volume, and credit spreads across different industries [2][3][4][5] 3) Summary by Directory A. Mid - view Event Overview - **Production Industry**: The US has raised the tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and their derivatives from 25% to 50, and China will build 10 national data element comprehensive experimental zones [1] - **Service Industry**: The ISO has released an international standard on the inclusive digital economy for an aging society led by China [1] B. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: The price of soda ash in the chemical industry has dropped significantly, and the price of glass in the black industry has continued to decline [2] - **Mid - stream**: The PX operating rate in the chemical industry and the asphalt operating rate in the infrastructure industry have both increased [3] - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in the real - estate industry have seasonally declined to a near - three - year low, and the number of domestic flights in the service industry has cyclically decreased [4] - **Market Pricing**: The credit spreads across all industries are fluctuating [5] C. Data Graphs - There are 24 graphs showing various indicators such as coal consumption, inventory, operating rates of different industries, traffic congestion indices, movie box - office, and flight execution [6] D. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - Credit spreads of different industries have different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing compared to previous periods [45] E. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - Prices of various products in key industries have different changes, including increases and decreases in prices of agricultural products, metals, energy, and chemical products [46]

Playing the long game Key features of the outlook We forecast GDP growth of 4.6% and 4.2% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, assuming no change in the US tariff levels (up an additional 30% compared to the start of 2025) and modest stimulus. Over the coming months, export frontloading and the announced policy measures should remain supportive, but some weakening is bound to happen further ahead, when the exemption period on the reciprocal tariffs comes to an end, warranting more policy support. Given the tari ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In the production industry, attention should be paid to the progress of green infrastructure pilot projects, such as the first - batch pilot work of new power system construction organized by the National Energy Administration [1] - In the service industry, attention should be paid to the promotion of pension service - related programs, like the release of an international standard on the digital economy from an aging perspective led by China [1] - The credit spreads of the entire industry fluctuate slightly [3] Summary by Directory 1. Mid - level Event Overview Production Industry - The National Energy Administration is carrying out the first - batch pilot work on new power system construction, focusing on national hub nodes and non - hub nodes with good energy resources. It aims to increase the proportion of green electricity in data centers through the "green power aggregated supply" model [1] Service Industry - The International Organization for Standardization has released an international standard on the digital economy from an aging perspective led by China, which provides specific suggestions for elderly people's high - frequency digital economic scenarios [1] 2. Industry Overview Upstream - Coal inventories are at a three - year high recently [2] Mid - stream - The PX开工率 is continuously rising, and the urea开工率 is stable and at a three - year high; the asphalt开工率 is rising; the开工 rate of pig product processing is increasing [2] Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have a seasonal rebound but are still at a near - three - year low; the number of domestic flights has decreased [2] 3. Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the entire industry fluctuate slightly [3] 4. Industry Credit Spread Tracking | Industry | Last Year's Same Period | One Quarter Ago | One Month Ago | Last Week | This Week | Quantile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery | 69.83 | 80.55 | 75.09 | 78.86 | 63.16 | 1.10 | | Mining | 36.41 | 46.76 | 44.37 | 49.14 | 42.27 | 11.50 | | Chemical Industry | 67.53 | 68.59 | 62.96 | 64.22 | 57.43 | 0.00 | | Steel | 43.64 | 57.03 | 52.34 | 57.01 | 49.92 | 11.40 | | Non - ferrous Metals | 47.06 | 56.23 | 53.30 | 60.33 | 53.49 | 14.60 | | Electronics | 55.98 | 78.46 | 65.50 | 79.10 | 67.58 | 24.80 | | Automobile | 64.33 | 76.43 | 45.92 | 52.66 | 44.05 | 0.00 | | Household Appliances | 44.70 | 53.93 | 44.90 | 53.92 | 47.29 | 12.30 | | Food and Beverage | 42.71 | 43.83 | 43.40 | 46.81 | 39.58 | 4.10 | | Textile and Apparel | 50.19 | 57.43 | 50.48 | 56.71 | 50.28 | 4.90 | | Light Industry Manufacturing | 56.31 | 198.86 | 167.29 | 166.01 | 156.61 | 8.30 | | Pharmaceutical and Biological | 57.67 | 65.83 | 67.40 | 74.32 | 66.68 | 17.60 | | Public Utilities | 26.96 | 32.22 | 30.73 | 34.60 | 29.06 | 13.70 | | Transportation | 33.79 | 36.99 | 34.76 | 39.07 | 33.24 | 7.30 | | Real Estate | 403.85 | 187.61 | 146.74 | 126.56 | 113.61 | 6.50 | | Commercial Trade | 48.40 | 52.24 | 48.09 | 52.23 | 45.37 | 5.30 | | Leisure Services | 75.14 | 106.06 | 107.84 | 128.21 | 120.84 | 98.00 | | Banking | 24.57 | 26.56 | 19.97 | 19.61 | 17.94 | 4.10 | | Non - banking Finance | 30.74 | 34.45 | 32.24 | 36.24 | 30.34 | 7.10 | | Comprehensive | 68.97 | 51.39 | 46.45 | 52.02 | 46.01 | 2.50 | | Building Materials | 34.78 | 46.19 | 43.78 | 48.38 | 40.81 | 9.60 | | Building Decoration | 46.17 | 56.39 | 52.42 | 58.00 | 52.43 | 12.20 | | Electrical Equipment | 54.28 | 84.01 | 78.85 | 84.52 | 78.64 | 39.40 | | Mechanical Equipment | 37.35 | 43.94 | 41.86 | 49.79 | 44.51 | 25.20 | | Computer | 69.00 | 74.00 | 62.09 | 64.12 | 53.12 | 0.00 | | Media | 228.94 | 44.27 | 43.19 | 47.55 | 40.77 | 0.10 | | Communication | 243.53 | 36.87 | 28.67 | 29.93 | 23.64 | 0.00 | [45] 5. Key Industry Price Index Tracking | Industry | Index Name | Frequency | Update Time | Price | Year - on - Year | Past 5 - day Trend | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | Daily | 5/15 | 2304.3 | 0.81% | | | | Spot price of eggs | Daily | 5/15 | 0.8 | 4.65% | | | | Spot price of palm oil | Daily | 5/15 | 8588.0 | 0.59% | | | | Spot price of cotton | Daily | 5/15 | 14512.3 | 2.56% | | | | Average wholesale price of pork | Daily | 5/15 | 20.9 | - 0.10% | | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price of copper | Daily | 5/15 | 78938.3 | | | | | Spot price of zinc | Daily | 5/15 | 22880.0 | 0.61% | | | | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | 5/15 | 20366.7 | 3.75% | | | | Spot price of nickel | Daily | 5/15 | 126525.0 | 1.42% | | | | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | 5/15 | 16906.3 | 1.12% | | | Steel | Spot price of rebar | Daily | 5/15 | 3189.9 | 0.86% | | | | Spot price of iron ore | Daily | 5/15 | 793.3 | 2.20% | | | | Spot price of wire rod | Daily | 5/12 | 3377.5 | 0.30% | | | Building Materials | Spot price of glass | Daily | 5/15 | 14.8 | - 2.50% | | | Chemical Industry | Spot price of natural rubber | Daily | 5/15 | 14838.3 | 2.63% | | | | China Plastic City Price Index | Daily | 5/15 | 840.4 | 1.06% | | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | Daily | 5/15 | 63.2 | 8.75% | | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | Daily | 5/15 | | 8.13% | | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | Daily | 5/12 | 4278.0 | - 0.37% | | | | Coal price | Daily | 5/15 | 777.0 | - 1.40% | | | Chemical Industry | Spot price of PTA | Daily | 5/15 | 4991.7 | 6.47% | | | | Spot price of polyethylene | Daily | 5/15 | 7508.3 | 0.58% | | | | Spot price of urea | Daily | 5/15 | 1946.7 | 1.83% | | | | Spot price of soda ash | Daily | 5/15 | 1462.5 | 0.00% | | | Real Estate | Cement price index: National | Daily | 5/15 | 143.5 | - 0.93% | | | | Building materials composite index | Daily | 5/15 | 116.5 | 0.52% | | | | Concrete price index: National index | Daily | 5/15 | 99.8 | - 0.53% | | [46]

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 06 月 04 日 5 月高频数据跟踪 [Table_Author] 魏争 分析师 沈夏宜 分析师 Email:weizheng@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 证书:S1320524100001 证书:S1320523020004 摘要： 生产端看，开工率涨跌互现：钢铁、玻璃及部分化工品开工改善，但水泥 仍疲弱；库存出现分化：钢材、矿石去库而水泥、玻璃累库；产能利用率 多数延续修复：焦化、电炉延续抬升趋势，水泥熟料小幅回落。开工率方 面，截至 5 月第四周，全国 247 家高炉开工率、主要钢企电炉开工率、螺 纹钢开工率延续 4 月上升趋势，分别为 83.89%、77.80%、42.64%，同 环比均正增；水泥磨机运转率处于低位水平，与建筑业新订单 PMI 处在荣 枯线以下互相印证（4 月录得 43.3）；浮法玻璃开工率出现修复，录得 75.99%；化工品开工率出现分化， PVC、PTA 开工率在 5 月下旬出现修 复，第四周分别为 78.49%、77.64%；纯碱开工率月内下降明显，或与企 业检修有关；石油沥青开工率月内先升后降， ...

Summary of China State Construction Engineering Corporation Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the construction industry in China, focusing on infrastructure and housing construction sectors [2][3][7]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Infrastructure Growth**: China State Construction's infrastructure engineering growth accelerated, benefiting from energy and water environmental projects, with year-on-year growth exceeding 40% [2][3]. 2. **Low-Carbon Transition**: The growth reflects the national low-carbon transition policy and the increasing demand from major owners like the six major power generation groups [3]. 3. **Project Management**: The company applies refined management practices from housing construction to emerging infrastructure sectors, ensuring a steady flow of orders [2][3]. 4. **Cash Flow Improvement**: The company integrates accounts receivable into government ledgers to secure government funding support and employs strategies like low-interest swaps to help local governments free up resources for construction orders [2][6]. 5. **Housing Construction Orders Decline**: Housing construction orders decreased by 4.8% in the first four months of the year, influenced by weak real estate market demand and insufficient production willingness from private enterprises [7]. 6. **Project Selection Strategy**: The company employs a "two optimizations and two focuses" strategy to select projects, aiming to maintain stability in the housing construction market [7]. 7. **Industrial Plant Demand**: Demand for industrial plants, previously a major contributor to housing construction orders, has declined, impacting the overall construction industry [9]. 8. **Urban Renewal Initiatives**: The company is actively developing urban renewal and village renovation projects, with new contracts in this area amounting to approximately 100 billion annually [10]. 9. **Debt Management**: The company reported a significant impairment loss of 20 billion last year due to an increase in accounts receivable and aging debts, with an expected impairment provision of about 5 billion this year [4][15]. 10. **High Dividend Yield**: The company has increased its dividend payout ratio, currently yielding around 4.8%, which is attractive for public funds and may lead to increased allocation in the construction sector [16][17]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - **Data Center Demand**: The data center business, part of the industrial plant sector, shows growth potential, particularly highlighted by major projects like the East Data West Computing initiative [13]. - **Steel Structure Business**: The steel structure segment maintains stability through advanced technology and robotics, ensuring quality without aggressive capacity expansion [14]. - **Market Positioning**: The company is focusing on enhancing its market competitiveness through design, investment, and operational management improvements in urban renewal projects [10]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic responses to market challenges and opportunities within the construction industry.

半年度宏观展望：柳暗花明，股债双牛 20250602 摘要 中国 2025 年全年 GDP 预计增长 5%，受益于美国关税阶段性下调和积 极的财政政策，但下半年可能面临增速放缓，三、四季度 GDP 增速或分 别降至 4.8%和 4.7%。 下半年财政和货币政策预计将侧重于稳就业，针对低附加值企业订单流 失导致的就业问题，政策将更偏向供给端，需求侧刺激可能相对缺位， 物价表现预计偏弱。 中美经贸关系仍具不确定性，关税豁免期结束后，关税上浮概率较大， 但两国元首可能在 G20 峰会上会面，或提振市场对达成经贸协定的预期。 下半年看好股票和债券，股票方面，红利类资产因中美关系不确定性具 备防御优势，科技类资产受益于机构资产配置偏好调整；债券方面，预 计 10 年期国债利率可能继续下探至 1.5%。 制造业投资是固定资产投资中最强劲的指标，受益于重大工程投资、设 备更新和高技术相关投资，以及新质生产力的推动，全年增速预计为 9.0%。 Q&A 2025 年下半年宏观经济环境的总体判断是什么？ 2025 年下半年，宏观经济依然面临一定的下行压力。全年需求被前置是主要 原因之一，因此预计三四季度 GDP 可能会下降。从外 ...

报 告 正 文 预计5月工业增加值同比增长6%。 5月全国制造业PMI回升至49.5%。主要分项指标中，产需双双回升，原材 料和出厂价格均有下行，库存原材料升、产成品降。从5月以来的中观高频数据来看，汽车半钢胎和全钢胎开 工率同比增速均有所下降。化工产业链开工率同比增速涨多跌少。六大发电集团耗煤同比增速有所回落。整体 来看，工业生产景气度保持平稳。我们预计，5月工业增加值同比增速降至6%。 预计5月固定资产投资累计同比增长3.9%。 4月固定资产投资累计同比增速下降至4%，具体来看三大类投资， 制造业投资和房地产投资累计同比增速有所下降，基建投资累计同比增速与上月相比基本持平。我们预计，5 月投资累计增速或保持稳定。 首先， 从基建相关的高频数据来看，钢材综合价格指数同比增速持续走低，沥 青开工率累计同比由负转正，预计基建投资累计增速保持平稳； 其次， 42城地产销量累计同比增速有所上 升，与房地产投资相关的浮法平板玻璃价格降幅有所收窄，预计房地产投资额累计降幅有所减小； 最后， 乘 联会乘用车批发和零售销量累计同比增速均有所放缓，预测制造业投资累计增速将有所下降。我们预计，5月 固定资产投资累计同比增速或略 ...

Group 1 - Infrastructure investment is a crucial means of achieving current fixed asset investment and lays the foundation for future economic growth [1][6] - As of May 30, 28 out of 31 provinces reported positive year-on-year growth in fixed asset investment for the first four months of the year, with 7 provinces achieving double-digit growth [1][3] - Notably, Beijing led with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.2%, while provinces like Qinghai, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia also showed significant growth rates in infrastructure investment [1][2] Group 2 - National statistics indicate that fixed asset investment grew by 4.0% year-on-year from January to April, with infrastructure investment contributing significantly at a growth rate of 5.8% [3][5] - In Shenzhen, major projects completed investments of 109.9 billion yuan, with a planned total investment of 3.15 trillion yuan for 798 major projects by 2025 [3][4] - The issuance of local government bonds reached approximately 35.354 billion yuan in the first four months, marking an 84% year-on-year increase, providing substantial funding for major projects [5][6] Group 3 - The growth in infrastructure investment has effectively countered the decline in real estate investment, contributing to overall economic stability [5][6] - The sales of excavators, a key indicator of infrastructure construction activity, increased by 17.6% year-on-year in April, reflecting heightened construction activity across various regions [5][6] - The project bidding amounts in April showed a year-on-year increase of 10.0%, with significant growth in sectors such as energy, transportation, and municipal facilities [6]

Group 1 - The core argument of the article emphasizes that rapid GDP growth in India does not necessarily translate into improved living standards for its citizens, raising questions about the true benefits of economic growth [1][2]. - According to IMF projections, India's GDP is expected to reach $4.19 trillion by 2025, surpassing Japan and becoming the fourth-largest economy globally, but this growth masks underlying structural issues [1][2]. - Despite the impressive rise from the 10th to the 5th largest economy in the past decade, India's per capita GDP is projected to be only $2,800 in 2025, ranking 140th globally and the lowest among BRICS nations [2][3]. Group 2 - The concentration of wealth in India is alarming, with the richest 1% owning over 40% of the country's wealth, and the remaining population's average income drops to $1,130 when excluding the top 5% [2][3]. - India's Human Development Index (HDI) score of 0.685 in 2023 places it 130th globally, indicating significant lag in education, healthcare, and social welfare compared to other BRICS countries [3][4]. - The article highlights the regional disparities in HDI and income, with southern and western regions performing better than central and eastern areas, showcasing the challenge of achieving inclusive growth [3][4]. Group 3 - India's demographic advantage, with a median age of under 30, could become a burden if not matched with adequate education, skills training, and job creation [4]. - The labor force participation rate remains low, particularly among women, and millions of youth enter the job market annually without sufficient employment opportunities in the formal sector [4]. - The article calls for a shift in focus from merely pursuing GDP figures to investing in job creation, public health, quality education, and a robust social security system to ensure that economic growth benefits all citizens [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of China's economic situation through various high - frequency indicators, showing a mixed picture of economic trends with some sectors declining and others recovering [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Economic Index - The China Weekly Economic Index (WEI) remained flat at 5.0%. The WEI production sub - index was 4.6%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value, and the WEI demand sub - index was 5.7%, unchanged from the previous value. The supply - demand gap was 1.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 3.2 Production - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar production was - 1.2%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous value. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.7%, down 0.4 percentage points. The automobile semi - steel tire operating rate was 78.2%, down 0.1 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average daily coal consumption of major coastal power plants was 1.4%, up 0.5 percentage points [1]. 3.3 Infrastructure - The cement shipping rate was 40.5%, down 1.0 percentage point from the previous value. The cement mill operating rate was 41.8%, down 0.2 percentage points. The petroleum asphalt plant operating rate was 30.8%, down 3.6 percentage points [1]. 3.4 Real Estate - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the commercial housing sales area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was - 0.8%, up 5.1 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the land acquisition area of 100 large - and medium - sized cities was - 5.5%, down 4.9 percentage points from the previous value [2]. 3.5 Consumption - The year - on - year of the average daily retail sales of passenger cars was 14.0%, down 16.0 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of movie box office was - 47.2%, down 3.8 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen was 1.8%, down 1.2 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Export - South Korea's export year - on - year in mid - May was 20.3%, up 44.1 percentage points from the previous period. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was - 40.4%, down 2.4 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) remained unchanged [2]. 3.7 CPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index was - 3.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of pork was 1.4%, down 0.5 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was - 9.0%, down 1.2 percentage points [3]. 3.8 PPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Nanhua Composite Index was - 10.7%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Brent crude oil spot price was - 22.6%, up 1.1 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the rebar price was - 13.3%, down 0.6 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Qinhuangdao Port steam coal closing price was - 26.2%, down 2.7 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the cement price index was 12.0%, down 2.5 percentage points [3].