Core Insights - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November increased by 2.6% year-over-year, down from 3% two months prior, indicating a slowdown in inflationary pressures [1] - The overall CPI for November rose by 2.7% year-over-year, marking the slowest potential inflation growth since early 2021 [1] - The report reflects a complex situation due to the government shutdown, which hindered data collection for October and limited the ability to assess broader inflation indicators [1][2] Inflation Trends - Core CPI increased by 0.2% month-over-month, primarily influenced by declines in hotel accommodations, entertainment, and clothing costs, while prices for household goods and personal care products rose [1] - Excluding food and energy, commodity prices rose by 1.4% year-over-year, slightly down from 1.5% in August and September [3] - New car prices increased by 0.2%, following a slight increase of 0.1% the previous month, while the growth rate for used car prices has slowed [4] Federal Reserve Considerations - The CPI report's impact on Federal Reserve policymakers remains uncertain, as they continue to have differing views on interest rate direction for the upcoming year [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the CPI data may have been distorted due to the government shutdown, which affected data collection [2] - Powell anticipates that commodity inflation will peak in the first quarter, assuming no new significant tariff measures are introduced [5] Housing and Services Impact - Service prices, excluding energy, rose by 3% year-over-year, with airline tickets and hotel accommodation prices decreasing compared to the previous year [5] - Housing costs, a major driver of inflation, increased by 3% year-over-year, representing the smallest increase in over four years [5] - The CPI relies on extensive field visits to collect prices from thousands of goods, with about 60% of the sample gathered through in-person visits [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the alarming rise in layoffs in the U.S. job market, with over 1.17 million employees laid off by November 2025, a 54% increase from the previous year, drawing parallels to the 2008-2009 financial crisis [4][5]. Group 1: Causes of Layoffs - The primary cause of layoffs is attributed to the efficiency revolution led by the DOGE department, resulting in 293,753 federal employees and contractors losing their jobs, with an additional 20,976 in the private and non-profit sectors, an eightfold increase compared to 2024 [15]. - The macroeconomic environment, characterized by high costs and tariffs, is also a significant factor, as many companies face debt repayment pressures from loans taken during the low-interest period of 2020-2021 [18][19]. - Companies, particularly those owned by private equity, are cutting jobs at a rate 1.5 times higher than publicly traded firms due to high leverage costs and cash flow constraints [21][22]. Group 2: Impact on Various Industries - The retail sector is the hardest hit, with a significant drop in consumer confidence and companies like Target and Starbucks announcing substantial layoffs due to decreased sales [27][28]. - The service industry has seen a 64% increase in layoffs, with UPS cutting 14,000 management positions to improve efficiency [30][31]. - The food industry has also been affected, with 34,165 job losses throughout the year, particularly in beef processing due to rising costs [32][33]. Group 3: Technology and Management Changes - The technology sector has contributed significantly to layoffs, with 35% of the total layoffs coming from this industry, primarily affecting middle management roles [46][47]. - A new corporate mantra has emerged: "Every employee generates revenue," leading to layoffs becoming a normalized management tool rather than a crisis response [51]. - Companies like Amazon and IBM have reported increased profits while simultaneously announcing significant layoffs, indicating a trend where cost-cutting measures are prioritized over workforce stability [53][54]. Group 4: Future Implications - The trend of layoffs is expected to continue, with predictions that the technology sector will see a peak in cost-cutting benefits by 2026, potentially reducing operational costs significantly [58]. - However, the loss of middle management, which often holds critical technical knowledge, could extend product development cycles and hinder innovation [62][71]. - The article warns that excessive cost-cutting may erode the foundation of innovation within the technology sector, leading to long-term negative consequences [72].

Group 1: Global Narrative Shifts - The "narrative inflection points" driving global capital reallocation include changes in overseas economies, AI advancements reshaping US-China dynamics, and a decrease in China's economic tail risks[4]. - The narrative power is expected to persist into 2026, with global monetary policies remaining accommodative and fiscal expansion opportunities greater in non-US countries than in the US[4]. - The "narrative inflection points" encompass three layers: the end of the "American exceptionalism," Europe's awakening, and the decline of tail risks in the Chinese economy[4]. Group 2: Economic Rebalancing in China - The main theme for China's macroeconomic strategy in 2026 is transitioning from capital reallocation to economic rebalancing, as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" draft[4]. - Key shifts in ideology during the "14th Five-Year" period include prioritizing demand-side policies over supply-side policies, emphasizing consumption over investment, and focusing on "investment in people" alongside "investment in goods"[4]. - Fiscal policy is expected to enter a "rigid expansion" phase, maintaining a budget deficit ratio of 4%, with slight increases in special government bonds and local government bonds[4]. Group 3: Economic Growth Projections - The GDP target for 2026 is projected to remain around 5%, with an expected actual completion of 4.9%, indicating a flat "U-shaped" growth trajectory[4]. - Consumer subsidy policies are anticipated to increase by 100-200 billion yuan on top of the 300 billion yuan allocated in 2025 to support service consumption[4]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise moderately to 0.4%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to decline by 0.9%[4]. Group 4: Industry Opportunities and Risks - From a macro perspective, technology remains a primary investment focus, but consumer investment value is also expected to emerge[5]. - Potential risks for 2026 include the ongoing US-China relationship dynamics, uncertainties in the European economy, and pressures in the domestic real estate market[5].

最新数据显示，美国十二月商业活动增速放缓至六个月来的最低点，然而，与此同时衡量企业投入成本的指标却攀升至超过三年的最高水平。这一现象凸显 出当前美国经济正面临增长动能减弱与通胀压力加剧并存的复杂局面，也为政策制定者带来了新的挑战。 根据本周二发布的初步统计数据，十二月综合产出指数相比前月下降一点二，降至五十三。尽管如此，该数值仍位于五十的荣枯分界线之上，表明经济活动 整体仍处于扩张区间。然而，扩张速度的明显放缓引发了市场对未来增长势头的关注。 与增长放缓形成鲜明对比的是价格压力的急剧上升。反映企业投入成本的综合支付价格指数在十二月大幅跃升近三个点，达到六十四点一的高位。标普全球 市场财智的首席商业经济学家在相关声明中指出，当前的主要担忧正是成本的大幅攀升，通胀增速已经达到自二零二二年十一月以来的最高水平。 分析认为，价格上升压力在很大程度上与关税因素相关。这种影响最初集中在制造业领域，如今正逐渐向服务业扩散，进一步加重了整体经济的成本负担。 数据显示，服务提供商的投入成本指标同样升至二零二二年十一月以来的最高点，而服务收费价格的上升速度也创下了二零二二年八月以来的最快纪录。 这种经济增长放缓和通胀压力上升并存 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic move to ensure long-term economic growth and meet the rising living standards of the population [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Economic Strategy - The conference prioritizes "domestic demand as the main driver" and aims to build a strong domestic market as the top task for 2026 [1]. - Key actions include implementing special measures to boost consumption, increasing urban and rural residents' income, expanding the supply of quality goods, optimizing the implementation of new policies, and removing unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector to unleash service consumption potential [1]. Consumption Focus - The article from "Qiushi" magazine highlights that the strategy to expand domestic demand is essential for maintaining sustainable economic development and fulfilling the people's growing needs for a better life [1][2]. - The emphasis on consumption as a "lasting driver" and "stabilizing anchor" indicates a long-term approach to economic growth, especially in the context of global economic recovery challenges and external demand fluctuations [2]. Investment Opportunities - The outlook for the consumption sector in 2026 is positive, with expectations of a moderate recovery in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will provide price support [2]. - The recovery elasticity is expected to rank as follows: 1. Service industry: Highlighted as a key area for consumption recovery, with strong policy support and high demand elasticity, particularly in sectors like elderly care, education, healthcare, and cultural sports [2]. 2. Mass consumer goods: Anticipated to stabilize and recover due to improved supply and demand dynamics, with strong demand for food and daily necessities [2]. 3. High-end consumption: Although recovery elasticity is weaker, there are structural opportunities driven by real estate and capital market wealth effects, with high-end liquor, duty-free goods, and premium home appliances being noteworthy [2].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the consumption sector in 2026, suggesting investment opportunities in this area [5][7]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference has prioritized "domestic demand-led growth and building a strong domestic market" as a key focus for 2026, emphasizing the importance of boosting consumption and increasing urban and rural incomes [5][6]. - The article in "Qiushi" magazine highlights that expanding domestic demand is essential for long-term economic health and meeting the needs of the population, with a focus on accelerating domestic demand, particularly consumption [6][7]. - The emphasis on consumption as a core growth driver reflects a strategic approach to leverage China's large market for sustainable growth, indicating continued policy support for consumption [7][8]. Summary by Sections - **Domestic Demand Strategy**: The report outlines that the strategy to expand domestic demand is crucial for maintaining long-term economic growth and addressing the needs of the population, with a focus on consumption as the main driver [6][7]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The report identifies three key areas for investment recovery in 2026: 1. **Services**: Highlighted as a priority area with strong policy support and high demand elasticity, particularly in elderly care, education, healthcare, and culture [8]. 2. **Mass Products**: Expected to see stable recovery due to bottom stabilization, structural optimization, and improved supply-demand dynamics, with strong demand for food and daily goods [8]. 3. **High-end Consumption**: Driven by real estate and capital market wealth effects, with structural opportunities in sectors like Chinese baijiu, duty-free, and high-end household appliances [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference has outlined the direction for economic work in 2026, emphasizing the importance of fundamental support and long-term development trends, with several sectors expected to continuously release high-quality development momentum [1] Group 1: Technological Innovation - Technological innovation is entering a new stage of deep application, with a robust support system developing in hard technology fields such as advanced manufacturing [2] - The construction of three major international technology innovation centers (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area) is fostering a collaborative environment for talent, technology, and industry [2] - The deepening expansion of "Artificial Intelligence +" will drive AI technology's penetration into various sectors, including manufacturing, healthcare, transportation, and services, enhancing the collaborative upgrade of the industrial chain [2] Group 2: Modern Industrial System - The industrial system in China is evolving towards consolidating strengths and enhancing overall competitiveness, involving the transformation of traditional industries through digital and green technologies [3] - The continuous optimization of the industrial ecosystem will highlight the advantages of industry leaders and companies with genuine technological innovation capabilities [3] Group 3: Domestic Demand Market Potential - Domestic demand, particularly consumption, plays a fundamental role in China's economic growth, with rising household income and innovative consumption scenarios creating numerous opportunities [4] - Diverse and quality consumption sectors such as the silver economy, ice and snow economy, leisure tourism, and service consumption are expected to benefit continuously [4] - Actions aimed at reducing logistics costs and promoting urban renewal will not only constitute effective investments but also enhance economic efficiency, creating opportunities in modern logistics, smart cities, and green buildings [4] Group 4: Efficiency and High-Level Opening Up - The continuous release of institutional dividends is crucial for high-quality development, with the deepening of the national unified market construction expected to eliminate regional barriers and enhance factor allocation efficiency [5] - The expansion of free trade zones, the construction of Hainan Free Trade Port, and the development of the Belt and Road Initiative will open broader market spaces for internationally competitive Chinese high-end manufacturing, cross-border e-commerce, and financial services [5] Group 5: Green Transformation - The green transformation under the "dual carbon" goals is viewed as a high-certainty long-term development track, with the construction of a new energy system and the development of a national carbon market driving growth in wind power, photovoltaics, energy storage, and carbon monitoring services [6] - Energy-saving and carbon-reduction renovations, along with comprehensive solid waste management, will create sustained demand in the environmental technology and circular economy sectors [6] - New development models in real estate and the construction of "good houses" may present new opportunities in green buildings, smart homes, and urban operation services [6] Conclusion - With the Central Economic Work Conference convened, the coordinated efforts of various policies and the deepening of reform and opening up are expected to solidify and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery, with the capital market serving as a vital platform for resource allocation and a window to observe economic structural changes [7]

Report Overview - Report Date: December 17, 2025 - Report Title: Economic Data Review for November 2025 1. Industry Investment Rating - The document does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Most economic indicators continued to weaken in November. Consumption and investment faced significant pressure, and the GDP growth rate in Q4 might slow down compared to Q3. The core contradiction in the current economic operation is the co - existence of the drag from the adjustment of old driving forces and the growth of new driving forces. Real - estate downturn and cautious consumer behavior are short - term constraints, while policy support and industrial upgrading are key supports [2]. - In December, social retail sales still face a high - base pressure from the +3.7% year - on - year growth in December 2024, and the effect of the withdrawal of national subsidies may continue to show. In terms of fixed - asset investment, the decline in real - estate investment has widened, infrastructure investment may be under great fiscal constraint pressure, and only manufacturing upgrading provides support [2]. - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the role of domestic demand, strengthened the main position of enterprise innovation, and added the statement of "increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment" in macro - policies. Attention should be paid to the implementation effect of growth - stabilization policies and the supporting role of high - quality development and new productive forces on the economy [2]. - In 2026, the bond market may perform better than expected. Since the second half of the year, the bond market has often deviated from the fundamentals and is dominated by institutional behavior. It is expected that the policy interest rate will be cut by about 20BP in 2026, with a 10BP cut likely in Q1. In the long - term, the 30 - year treasury bond yield is expected to fall below 2% [3]. 3. Summary by Category Consumption - In November, the growth rate of social retail sales continued to decline. The total retail sales of consumer goods in November was 4.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%, 1.6 percentage points lower than the previous month. The year - on - year growth rate has declined for six consecutive months, reaching the lowest single - month level since 2023. From January to November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.0% year - on - year, 0.3 percentage points lower than from January to October [2]. - The policy to expand service consumption continued to be implemented, and service retail sales continued to grow rapidly. From January to November, the retail sales of cultural, sports, and leisure services continued to grow at a double - digit rate. The national box office revenue increased by 19.5% year - on - year, and the number of moviegoers increased by 20.3% year - on - year [2]. - The year - on - year growth rate of most retail sales of national - subsidy - related categories continued to slow down. In November, the year - on - year growth rate of retail sales of above - quota household appliances and audio - visual equipment dropped significantly to - 19.4%, 4.8 percentage points lower than in October. The year - on - year retail sales of above - quota furniture decreased by 3.8%, 13.4 percentage points lower than in October [2]. Fixed - Asset Investment - The pressure on fixed - asset investment continued to increase. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment has been weakening for eight consecutive months, with negative growth for three consecutive months and an accelerating decline. The decline in real - estate development investment has widened for nine consecutive months. From January to November, fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year [2]. - From January to November, infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and real - estate development investment decreased by 1.1%, increased by 1.9%, and decreased by 15.9% year - on - year respectively, 1.0, 0.8, and 1.2 percentage points lower than the previous period. Infrastructure investment has had negative cumulative year - on - year growth for two consecutive months [2]. - Private investment has had negative cumulative year - on - year growth for six consecutive months. From January to November, the year - on - year decline widened to - 5.3%, 0.8 percentage points lower than from January to October [2]. Foreign Trade - The overall growth rate of imports and exports rebounded significantly. In November, the total value of imports and exports was 3.9 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%, a significant increase of 4 percentage points from 0.1% in October. Exports were 2.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%, rebounding from - 0.8% in October. Imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, maintaining growth for six consecutive months [3]. - Trade with the EU and Africa rebounded significantly, while the decline in exports to the US continued to widen. In November, the total trade value with ASEAN increased by 3.3% year - on - year, and exports to ASEAN increased by 8.2%. The total trade value with the EU increased by 10.25% year - on - year, 8.3 percentage points higher than the previous period. Exports to the EU increased by 14.8% year - on - year, a significant rebound of 13.9 percentage points from October [3]. - High - end manufacturing became the core driving force for the rebound. In November, exports of mechanical and electrical products increased by 9.65% year - on - year in US dollars, 8.4 percentage points higher than the previous month, and exports of high - tech products increased by 7.68% year - on - year, 5.9 percentage points higher than the previous month [3]. Industrial and Service Sectors - From January to November, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.0% year - on - year, 0.1 percentage points lower than from January to October. In November, it increased by 4.8% year - on - year, 0.1 percentage points lower than in October [3]. - In November, the added value of high - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing above the designated size increased by 8.4% and 7.7% year - on - year respectively, maintaining a growth rate of over 7% in each month since 2025 [3]. - In November, the service production index increased by 4.2% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous month and 1.9 percentage points lower than in November last year [3]. Economic Outlook and Recommendations - The economy still faces certain pressure. On the consumption side, although there is growth in durable goods and service consumption supported by policies, the decline in the retail sales of above - quota durable goods reflects that the overall consumer willingness still needs to be boosted. On the investment side, the drag of infrastructure and real - estate on the economy may continue [3]. - The probability of the introduction of growth - stabilization policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts increases. The bond market in 2026 may perform better than expected, and it is recommended to focus on the allocation value of 5 - year bank capital bonds and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [3]

美国商务部16日上午发布的数据显示，美国10月份零售与食品服务业零售金额分别为7326亿美元，环比 持平，同比增加3.5%，环比涨幅低于市场预期的0.2%，9月份环比涨幅从0.2%修订为0.1%。 标普全球在当日上午发布的初步数据显示，美国12月制造业和服务业产出综合指数为53，低于11月的 54.2，为6个月以来的低点。其中，12月份服务业采购经理人商业活动指数为52.9，低于11月的54.1，为 6个月以来的低点；当月制造业采购经理人指数为51.8，低于11月的52.2，为5个月以来的低点。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日下跌302.30点，收于48114.26点，跌幅为0.62%；标 准普尔500种股票指数下跌16.25点，收于6800.26点，跌幅为0.24%；纳斯达克综合指数上涨54.049点， 收于23111.462点，涨幅为0.23%。 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块八跌三涨。能源板块和医疗板块分别以2.98%和1.28%跌幅领跌，科 技板块和非必需消费品板块分别以0.32%和0.31%涨幅领涨。 美国劳工部16日公布的数据显示，今年11月美国失业率升至4.6%，为2021年1 ...

（付一夫为苏商银行特约研究员） 在全球经济格局深刻调整与国内发展阶段转换的双重背景下，内需作为大国经济的"稳定器"和"主引 擎"，其战略地位日益凸显。前不久刚刚召开的中央经济工作会议将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市 场"置于明年八大重点任务之首，且日前《求是》杂志发表重要文章《扩大内需是战略之举》。这一系 列举措绝非应对短期波动的权宜之计，而是基于经济发展规律、国内外环境深刻变化以及中国式现代化 长远目标所作出的战略抉择。 本文将从经济学视角，系统剖析为扩大内需的原因及其多重战略意义，并探讨未来系统性、结构性的实 施路径。 一、扩大内需的战略逻辑 扩大内需战略的提出与强化，根植于对大国经济规律的深刻认识、对当前内外部挑战的现实回应，以及 对经济发展阶段转换的主动适应。 其一，扩大内需是遵循大国经济发展的普遍规律。 总管全球经济发展史，大国经济普遍具有的特征都是以内需为主导。无论是美国的消费驱动型经济，还 是德国、日本在体量扩大后因过度依赖外需而暴露的脆弱性，都印证了这一规律。我国作为拥有14亿多 人口、4亿多中等收入群体的超大规模经济体，已具备形成内部良性循环的巨大潜力和客观条件。将发 展的立足点更多放在国内 ...