交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-6-17 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今年仍有较大投产计划，行业产量处于历史同期高位。 2、重碱下游浮法玻璃冷修高位，日熔量持续减少，对纯碱需求偏弱。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修逐步恢复，供给高位下滑逐步企稳；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1210元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1174元/吨，基差为36元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存168.63万吨，较前一周增加3.64%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、 ...

交产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月17日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 品种 | 6月16日 | 6月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 云南国富全乱胶(SCRWF):下海 | 13900 | 13900 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差 (切换至2509合约) | -10 | 25 | -35 | -140.00% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13750 | 13750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 非标价差 | -160 | -125 | -35 | -28.00% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 47.45 | 47.05 | 0.40 | 0.85% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 56.75 | 56.75 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 12600 | 12200 | 400 | 3.28% | | | 天然橡胶:胶水:西双版纳州 | 13100 | 12 ...

| | | | | | 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/6/17 | | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | 2025/6/9 | 2025/6/13 | | 2025/6/16 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/6/9 | 2025/6/13 | | 2025/6/16 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1121.0 | 1113.0 | 1104.0 | -17.0 | -9.0 | FG09合约 | 1006.0 | 976.0 | 980.0 | -26.0 | 4.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1109.0 | 1096.0 | 1091.0 | -18.0 | -5.0 | FG01合约 | 1066.0 | 1035.0 | 1041.0 | -25.0 | 6.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱周报 2025.6.9-6.13 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每周观点 上周纯碱期货低位震荡下行，主力合约SA2509收盘较前一周下跌4.62%报1156元/吨。现 货方面，河北沙河重碱低端价1200元/吨，较前一周下跌4.15%。 供给方面，近期行业装置开工基本正常，个别企业负荷波动，供应呈现一定增加趋势， 预计下周产量76万吨，开工率回升至87%左右。需求端，下游浮法和光伏玻璃需求一般，周 内浮法玻璃日熔量15.57万吨，环比下降1100吨；光伏日熔量9.83万吨，环比下降480吨；采 购多延续刚需补库，整体消费量波动不大，下游企业对原材料的储备意向不高。截止6月12 日，全国纯碱厂内库存168.63万吨，较前一周增加3.64%，库存仍处于历史同期高位。综合 来看， ...

纯碱早报 2025-6-16 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修逐步恢复，供给高位下滑逐步企稳；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1200元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1156元/吨，基差为44元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存168.63万吨，较前一周增加3.64%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产 ...

Group 1: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Under the expectation of increasing supply and weak demand, the subsequent rubber price is expected to remain weak. Hold the short position at 14,000 and pay attention to the raw material supply in each producing area and macro - event disturbances [1][2] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On June 13, the price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 13,900 yuan/ton, up 0.36% from the previous day. The full - milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 90.57% [1] - **Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 2.91% to - 835 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 10.00% to - 50 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 2.20% to 890 yuan/ton [1] - **Fundamental Data**: In April, Thailand's production decreased by 29.16% to 105,700 tons; Indonesia's production decreased by 7.26% to 194,100 tons; India's production decreased by 14.34% to 45,400 tons; China's production increased by 42,300 tons to 58,100 tons. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires was 77.98%, up 4.12 percentage points; the weekly开工率 of full - steel tires was 61.24%, down 2.23 percentage points. In April, domestic tire production decreased by 5.07% to 102.002 million pieces; tire export volume decreased by 7.87% to 57.39 million pieces; natural rubber import volume decreased by 11.93% to 523,200 tons [1] - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.80% to 614,584 tons; the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE increased by 59.45% to 34,876 tons [1] Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Soda Ash**: The supply is gradually recovering, the surplus pattern is obvious. Although there is still some profit for soda ash plants, the overall demand has not increased significantly. After the maintenance, inventory accumulation may accelerate. Hold the previous short positions [3] - **Glass**: After entering the summer rainy season in June, the demand will slow down again. The glass industry still faces over - supply pressure. Wait for more cold - repair to be realized for a real turnaround in the market. Adopt a short - term bearish strategy [3] Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: On June 13, the North China quotation was 1,140 yuan/ton, down 0.87%; the 05 basis decreased by 8.70% [3] - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The North China quotation remained unchanged at 1,400 yuan/ton; the 05 basis increased by 4.26% [3] - **Supply Volume**: The soda ash production rate increased by 8.06% to 84.90%; the weekly soda ash output increased by 8.04% to 740,100 tons; the float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.70% to 155,700 tons; the photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 1.00% to 98,990 tons [3] - **Inventory**: The glass factory warehouse increased by 2.84% to 69.685 million weight boxes; the soda ash factory warehouse increased by 3.82% to 1.6863 million tons; the soda ash delivery warehouse decreased by 5.87% to 327,100 tons; the glass factory's soda ash inventory days increased by 15.91% to 21 days [3] - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area was - 18.13%, an increase of 2.99 percentage points; the construction area decreased by 7.56% to - 33.33%; the completion area increased by 15.67% to - 11.68%; the sales area increased by 12.13% to - 1.55% [3] Group 3: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Although the demand has recovered to some extent, the supply is still increasing. In June, industrial silicon still faces a weak fundamental situation of oversupply, and the price is under pressure. However, the recent rebound in coal prices provides some support, and the price may fluctuate at a low level [4] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On June 13, the price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 8,150 yuan/ton; the basis increased by 17.80% [4] - **Inter - month Spread**: The 2506 - 2507 spread decreased by 29480.00% to - 7345 yuan/ton; the 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 40.00% [4] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, the national industrial silicon output increased by 2.29% to 307,700 tons; the Xinjiang output decreased by 2.60% to 163,100 tons; the Yunnan output decreased by 25.43% to 10,000 tons; the Sichuan output increased by 109.47% to 23,700 tons; the Inner Mongolia output increased by 4.78% to 46,100 tons; the Ningxia output increased by 17.50% to 23,500 tons; the 97 - silicon output decreased by 60.00% to 4,800 tons; the recycled silicon output increased by 3.12% to 16,500 tons; the organic silicon DMC output increased by 6.48% to 184,000 tons; the polysilicon output increased by 0.73% to 96,100 tons; the recycled aluminum alloy output decreased by 0.66% to 606,000 tons; the industrial silicon export volume in April increased by 1.64% to 60,500 tons [4] - **Inventory Change**: The Xinjiang factory warehouse inventory decreased by 2.15% to 186,700 tons; the Yunnan factory warehouse inventory increased by 2.79% to 25,800 tons; the social inventory decreased by 2.56% to 572,000 tons; the warehouse inventory decreased by 0.77% to 289,600 tons; the non - warehouse inventory decreased by 4.32% to 282,400 tons [4] Group 4: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Last week, the polysilicon price was under pressure due to increased supply and falling spot prices. Although the production of polysilicon and silicon wafers has increased this week, the growth rate of polysilicon production is greater, leading to inventory accumulation and price - falling pressure. Hold short positions cautiously and pay attention to the spread structure and polysilicon production. If the polysilicon production increases, it is beneficial for the arbitrage of buying industrial silicon and shorting polysilicon [5] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On June 13, the average price of N - type re -投料 decreased by 1.39% to 35,500 yuan/ton; the N - type material basis (average price) decreased by 25.26% [5] - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The PS2506 contract price increased by 0.33% to 33,695; the PS2506 - PS2507 spread decreased by 22.38% [5] - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: The silicon wafer production increased by 0.46% to 13.1 GW; the polysilicon production increased by 8.18% to 23,800 tons [5] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, the polysilicon production increased by 0.73% to 96,100 tons; the polysilicon import volume in April decreased by 7.10% to 2,900 tons; the polysilicon export volume in April decreased by 10.40% to 2,000 tons; the polysilicon net export volume remained unchanged at - 900 tons; the silicon wafer production in May decreased by 0.50% to 58.06 GW; the silicon wafer import volume in April decreased by 32.03% to 600 tons; the silicon wafer export volume in April increased by 28.29% to 5,900 tons; the silicon wafer net export volume in April increased by 42.57% to 5,300 tons; the silicon wafer demand in May decreased by 8.10% to 60.61 GW [5] - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 2.23% to 275,000 tons; the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 3.40% to 19.34 GW [5]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 高位震荡 | 伊以冲突不确定性上升，油价高位震荡。当前核心驱动由供需转为地缘政 | | | | 治，伊以冲突走向将主导油价，短期市场较为担忧战火扩大，极端情况下， | | | | 伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡。策略：双买期权策略。SC【530-570】 | | LPG | | 成本端油价走强，基本面边际改善，液化气短线偏强。原油受伊以冲突带 | | | | 动走强，成本端利好；下游化工需求有所回升，PDH、MTBE 开工率上升； | | | 偏强 | 库存端利好，厂库和港口库存均下降。策略：短线偏强，波动加剧，双买 | | | | 期权。PG【4300-4400】 | | L | 空头反弹 | 成本支撑好转，期现齐涨，华北基差为-18（环比-17），关注后续库存去 化力度。本周装置重启计划偏多，预计产量继续增加；社会库存转为累库， | | | | 农膜需求淡季，下游补库动力不足，后市中游存在继续累库风险。策略： | | | | 短期地缘冲突尚不明朗，空单减持。基差维持负值，上游企业可择机卖保。 | | | | ...

| | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/6 | | 2025/6/12 | 2025/6/13 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 2025/6/6 | 2025/6/12 | 2025/6/13 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 沙河重碱 | 1250.0 | 1230.0 | 1200.0 | -50.0 | -30.0 | SA05合 约 | 1242.0 | 1212.0 | 1204.0 | -38.0 | -8.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1220.0 | 1210.0 | 1165.0 | -55.0 | -45.0 | SA01合约 | 1198.0 | 1165.0 | 1153.0 | -45.0 | -12.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1510.0 | 1510.0 | 1510.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1212.0 | 1175.0 | 1156.0 | -56.0 | -19. ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 玻璃纯碱周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 日期：2025年6月15日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 纯碱：供应、 库存 05 纯碱：价格、 利润 06 01 玻璃：供应 端情况介绍 02 玻璃：价格 与利润 03 玻璃：库存 及下游开工 光伏玻璃： 价格与利润、 04 CONTENTS 产能与库存 玻璃观点：中期震荡市 第一，短期现货偏弱，全国各个地区玻璃价格普遍下跌。就中期而言需要注意6月地产偿债高峰因素、湖北仓 单定价对盘面压制因素，暂不宜对玻璃过度高看，但低位下跌空间也有限，长期看需要注意09合约作为一个 旺季合约，盘面定价却亏损幅度较大，玻璃未来波动率或较大； 第二、趋势上多头交易的核心支撑主要在政策端未来可能因地产收储、政府财政支持，政策资金保障加强后 保交楼落地预期增强、现货价格较低，处于历史价格25%分位以下、厂家长期亏损、09合约旺季预期； 第三、空头交易房 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-6-13 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修逐步恢复，供给高位下滑逐步企稳；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1220元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1175元/吨，基差为45元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存168.63万吨，较前一周增加3.64%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 2、重碱下游浮法玻璃冷修高位，日熔量持续减少，对纯碱需求偏弱。 主要逻辑和风 ...