Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the text. Core Views of the Report - The short - term outlook for the stock index is expected to be volatile. As the negative factors of trade frictions gradually ease, the stock index is expected to return to the upward channel. Even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of the stock index is expected to be limited. The strategy is to go long on the stock index when opportunities arise [1]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are expected to be volatile, some are expected to be strong, and some are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term volatility, expected to return to the upward channel later, with limited adjustment space. Strategy: go long when opportunities arise [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Volatile. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: Short - term wide - range volatility. Geopolitical uncertainties and potential Fed rate cuts support the price, but the new round of Sino - US consultations limit the rise [1]. - **Silver**: Volatile in the short - term, and the physical situation in London needs to be monitored [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term price fluctuations are intensified, but with continuous supply disturbances and an increasing Fed rate - cut expectation, it is expected to be strong [1]. - **Alumina**: With production still profitable, domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released, and production and inventory are increasing. The spot price is under pressure, and cost support needs attention [1]. - **Zinc**: After a short - term rebound, the export window closes again. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and changes in domestic and foreign inventories need attention [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term volatility is mainly influenced by the macro situation and may be strong, but high inventory still suppresses the price. Suggestion: short - term low - buying within the range, and there is still pressure from long - term excess of primary nickel [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro situation improves, and the trade friction eases. The stainless steel futures may rebound in the short - term. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - **Tin**: Although the short - term impact of the Indonesian ore ban is not significant, the supply risk is high, and there is demand support. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The industrial driving force is unclear, and the futures valuation is low. Directional trading is not recommended [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward potential [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Direct demand is good, but supply is high, and inventory is at a high level. The price is under pressure and volatile [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Short - term production profit is poor, but cost support is strengthening, and direct demand is good. The price is expected to be volatile and the downward space is limited [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Follows the glass market, with a large supply - surplus pressure, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the price rebounded to fill the gap, it reached a relatively high level. It may challenge previous highs, but the breakthrough is difficult. It may be in a wide - range volatile market if there is no new policy on "anti - involution" [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's plan to regulate exports is favorable for the far - month contract. The near - month contract lacks new drivers, and it is advisable to wait for the production area to reduce production and destock [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The pressure from US soybean prices and the support from domestic de - stocking expectations coexist. There is a lack of new drivers, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Canola Oil**: The negotiation on Canadian canola anti - dumping may bring negative news. The domestic canola is in short supply, and the inventory is decreasing. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side trading, and the inter - month positive spread is expected to rise [1]. - **Cotton**: There is uncertainty in new - year cotton demand. The downside space of the futures is limited, but the basis and the futures may be under pressure due to high production [1]. - **Sugar**: In the short - term, sugar prices are seasonally strong due to typhoon impacts and the gap between old and new crops. In the medium - term, the rebound space is limited after new sugar is listed [1]. - **Corn**: The current stage still focuses on the selling pressure in November. The C01 contract is expected to be in low - level volatility [1]. - **Methanol**: The MO1 contract is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see or go long in the short - term, and pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and South American weather [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The trading logic is related to the old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. With weak downstream demand, it is recommended to do a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - **Logs**: The log fundamentals have declined, and the spot price is firm. It is advisable to wait and see after a sharp decline in the futures [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price has stabilized, but the futures still have a premium. It is necessary to wait for changes in the slaughter volume and weight, and the short - term trend is volatile [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: Influenced by US sanctions on Russia, geopolitical tensions, and the US attitude towards China's tariffs [1]. - **Bitumen**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - **SBS Rubber**: Supported by strong raw material costs, decreasing intermediate inventory, and a positive commodity market atmosphere [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost support is weak, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. Attention should be paid to inventory de - stocking [1]. - **PTA**: The price rebounds slightly due to factors such as a decline in domestic production caused by equipment inspections [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory in East China is low, the cost support is strengthening, and the polyester market has not declined significantly [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factory equipment is gradually resuming operation, the basis is strengthening, and the price follows the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the arbitrage window to the US is closed, and domestic styrene plant inspections are increasing [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment eases, and domestic demand is insufficient. There is an upper limit to the price, but there is support from "anti - involution" and cost [1]. - **PE**: The price is volatile and slightly strong due to a slight downward adjustment in the crude oil price center, weakened inspection efforts, and slowly increasing downstream demand [1]. - **PP**: The inspection support is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is large, there are many near - month warehouse receipts, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **LPG**: There are problems such as planned alumina production in Guangxi, decreasing inspection concentration, and difficult digestion of warehouse receipts. The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and the domestic fundamentals are also loose [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - The stock market has seen rapid rotation of hot sectors recently, with reduced risk appetite and short - term uncertainty, but the long - term policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, suggesting a long - term strategy of buying on dips [4]. - The bond market may face short - term risk preference decline, which is conducive to its repair. In the fourth quarter, it is necessary to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The overall situation may be volatile, and it may repair if the stock market cools down and the allocation power increases [7]. - For precious metals, the Fed's monetary policy is in the early stage of the easing cycle. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy, buying on dips [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, most metal prices are expected to be strong due to factors such as trade negotiation sentiment improvement and supply - side constraints [12][14]. - In the black building materials market, steel prices may be weak in the short term but have long - term upward potential. Iron ore prices will oscillate due to the tug - of - war between weak reality and macro expectations [33][36]. - In the energy and chemical market, different products have different trends. For example, rubber prices may turn neutral, and crude oil prices are recommended to be observed in the short term [54][56]. - In the agricultural products market, the prices of various products such as hogs, eggs, and grains are affected by supply and demand factors, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed [79][81]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. There will be economic and trade consultations between China and the US. The R & D of new - generation batteries is being promoted [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term uncertainty exists, but long - term buying on dips is recommended [4]. - **Treasury Bond** - **Market Information**: Bond prices declined on Thursday. There will be China - US economic and trade consultations, and the central government held a symposium on the "15th Five - Year Plan" for central enterprises. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The short - term risk preference decline is beneficial to the bond market repair. The fourth - quarter situation may be volatile, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose. The US will release September CPI data, and it is expected that the data may be lower than expected, which will support precious metal prices [8]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position strategy and buy on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose. LME copper inventory increased, while domestic warehouse receipts decreased. The import of copper spot was at a loss [11]. - **Strategy**: Due to potential supply tightening and improved trade negotiation sentiment, copper prices may remain strong [12]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices continued to rise. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased, and the external LME aluminum inventory also decreased [13]. - **Strategy**: With the easing of trade tensions and low domestic inventory, aluminum prices may rise further [14]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose. Domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and overseas registered zinc warehouse receipts were at a low level [15]. - **Strategy**: The domestic zinc concentrate inventory decreased, and the overseas market had structural risks. Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short term [17]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose. The lead ore port inventory increased, and the lead ingot social inventory decreased [18]. - **Strategy**: With the improvement of downstream demand and the reduction of inventory, lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term [18]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. The cost of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron was weak [19]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops significantly [20][21]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Tin prices declined slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand from traditional industries was weak [22]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, tin prices may remain high and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [22]. - **Carbonate Lithium** - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium rose, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy**: The downstream demand is strong, and the price may face pressure from supply recovery and hedging. It is necessary to pay attention to market changes [24]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The price of alumina rose slightly. The overseas price decreased, and the inventory increased [25]. - **Strategy**: The ore price may be under pressure after the rainy season, and the production capacity of alumina is excessive. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [26]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel rose. The social inventory decreased slightly [27]. - **Strategy**: The market confidence has recovered, and the subsequent trend depends on the release of downstream demand [28]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy**: The cost supports the price, but the high warehouse receipts limit the upward space [30]. Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fluctuated slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased marginally [32]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, steel prices are weak, but in the long term, they may rise due to the loosening of the macro environment [33]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose. The overseas shipment increased, and the iron water output decreased [34][35]. - **Strategy**: The demand for iron ore is weakening, and the inventory is increasing. The price will oscillate due to the influence of macro expectations [36]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose, and the inventory increased. Soda ash prices rose slightly, and the inventory also increased [37][38]. - **Strategy**: Glass prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and soda ash prices will continue to oscillate weakly [37][38]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon** - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose slightly. The spot prices were higher than the futures prices [39]. - **Strategy**: The impact of trade frictions may ease. It is recommended to look for opportunities to rebound in the black sector [42][43]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices also rose. The supply of industrial silicon increased, and the polysilicon supply may decrease in the future [44][47]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices will oscillate, and polysilicon prices will be affected by supply and policy expectations [45][48]. Energy and Chemical - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose due to typhoon and stock market factors. The demand is in a seasonal off - season [50]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions and adopt a neutral strategy [54]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose. The US crude oil inventory decreased, and the SPR inventory increased [55]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support intention [56]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: Methanol prices rose. The port inventory increased slowly, and the domestic start - up rate decreased [57][58]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see due to potential supply disturbances and high port inventory [58]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: Urea prices rose slightly. The supply increased, and the demand also increased [59][60]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities at low prices [60]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices decreased, and styrene prices increased. The supply of pure benzene was abundant, and the demand for styrene increased [61]. - **Strategy**: The price of styrene may stop falling in the short term due to inventory reduction and seasonal demand [62]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. The production was high, and the demand was weak [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [64][65]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply was high, and the inventory increased [66]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation [67]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. The supply increased slightly, and the demand remained stable [68]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see due to weak processing fees and uncertain terminal demand [69]. - **Para - xylene** - **Market Information**: PX prices rose. The load was high, and the downstream demand was weak [70][71]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see as there is no obvious driving force and it mainly follows the crude oil trend [72]. - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. The inventory decreased, and the demand increased seasonally [73]. - **Strategy**: PE prices may remain low and oscillate due to high - level warehouse receipts and cost factors [74]. - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: PP prices rose. The supply pressure was high, and the demand rebounded seasonally [75]. - **Strategy**: The overall inventory pressure is high, and the cost supply surplus suppresses the price [76]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs** - **Market Information**: Hog prices fluctuated. The supply and demand were in a stalemate [78]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, hog prices may be strong, but in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies [79]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with slight increases. The supply was normal, and the demand was average [80]. - **Strategy**: The spot price may have limited upward space, and it is recommended to wait and see [81]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: Soybean meal prices rose. The domestic soybean inventory was high, and the import of US soybeans was uncertain [82]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, there is support, but in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies due to the expected abundant supply [84]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: Oil prices fell. The palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia was high, and the supply pressure was large [85]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for a clearer production signal [86]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebounded. The production in Brazil is expected to increase, and the prices of domestic processing factories decreased [87]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter as the overall supply is expected to increase [89]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rebounded. The new cotton purchase price increased, but the demand was weak [90]. - **Strategy**: The upward space of cotton prices is limited due to weak fundamentals [91].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, under the background of the gradually loosening macro - environment, the logic of steel price trends remains unchanged; in the short - term, the weak real demand for steel is difficult to improve significantly [3] - For iron ore, the demand weakens after the decline of hot metal production, and the continuous accumulation of port inventory puts pressure on prices. The market is in a state of weak reality and macro - expectation tug - of - war, with prices oscillating [6] - For the black sector, it is not pessimistic about the future. It is considered that the cost - performance of finding callback positions to do rebounds may be higher than short - selling [11] - For industrial silicon, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term, following the commodity environment, and the trend of coking coal futures has a certain driving effect on its price [14] - For polysilicon, the current price fluctuation is regarded as a phased correction within the oscillation range, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies [16] - For glass, in the short - term, without external factors, the market is expected to remain weak [19] - For soda ash, the market is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [21] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3047 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.065%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 129,796 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 1.995833 million lots, down 10,093 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3110 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3200 yuan/ton, both with no change [2] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3219 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.124%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 113,657 tons, down 2375 tons. The main contract position was 1.509998 million lots, up 6767 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coil was 3230 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, with no change [2] Strategy Views - Rebar supply and demand both increased, and inventory decreased, showing a neutral performance; hot - rolled coil production decreased slightly, demand rebounded, inventory decreased marginally but remained at a relatively high level, and the inventory contradiction was slightly relieved. The steel mill profitability rate declined significantly recently, and the hot metal production decreased significantly, reducing the supply - side pressure marginally [3] Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 777.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.39% (+3.00), and the position changed by +2978 lots to 561,100 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 941,900 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 783 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 55.33 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.65% [5] Strategy Views - Supply: The overseas iron ore shipment volume rebounded in the latest period and was at a high level in the same period. The shipments from Australia and Brazil both increased, the shipment of FMG was strong, and the shipment from non - mainstream countries rebounded slightly. The near - end arrival volume decreased month - on - month [6] - Demand: The average daily hot metal production in the latest period was 239.9 tons, falling below 240 tons, mainly affected by the weak steel price, the decline of steel mill profitability to the lowest level of the year, and the environmental protection issues in Hebei affecting blast furnace production [6] - Inventory: Port inventory continued to increase, and steel mill inventory increased slightly [6] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On October 23, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed up 0.14% at 5818 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, converted to the futures price of 5910 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the premium to the futures price was 92 yuan/ton [9] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) closed up 0.65% at 5574 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the premium to the futures price was 76 yuan/ton [9] Strategy Views - The uncertainty of Sino - US trade friction has put pressure on commodities. Most of the current situation has been priced in, and subsequent macro - level factors may be more important [10] - For the black sector, it is not pessimistic. It is considered that the cost - performance of finding callback positions to do rebounds may be higher. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The main contract of industrial silicon futures (SI2511) closed at 8705 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.59% (+220). The weighted contract position changed by +103 lots to 438,582 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, with no change, and the basis of the main contract was 595 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, with no change, and the basis of the main contract was 145 yuan/ton [13] - Polysilicon: The main contract of polysilicon futures (PS2511) closed at 50760 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.89% (+450). The weighted contract position changed by - 3824 lots to 243,675 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, with no change; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.5 yuan/kg, with no change; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.98 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg, and the basis of the main contract was 2220 yuan/ton [15] Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The supply shows a pattern of "increasing in the north and decreasing in the south", and the supply pressure still exists. The demand is mainly restricted by supply. The cost provides support for the price, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [14] - Polysilicon: The over - expected increase in silicon material production in October and the decrease in downstream silicon wafer production lead to continuous inventory accumulation pressure. The supply pressure will be relieved if the leading enterprises start maintenance at the end of the month. The current price fluctuation is a phased correction [16] Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: On Thursday at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1108 yuan/ton, up 1.28% (+14). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1140 yuan, with no change; the price in Central China was 1150 yuan, with no change. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 66.613 million boxes, up 2.3374 million boxes (+3.64%). The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 12,367 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased their positions by 6711 lots [18] - Soda ash: On Thursday at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1235 yuan/ton, up 0.98% (+12). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1185 yuan, up 12 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7021 million tons, up 0.16 million tons (+3.64%), among which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 934,500 tons, down 62,000 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 767,600 tons, up 78,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 3131 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 4848 lots [20] Strategy Views - Glass: Entering the end of the traditional peak season, the downstream procurement rhythm slows down further, and the supply rebounds. The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve in the short - term, and the market is expected to remain weak [19] - Soda ash: The industry shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [21]

| 规格 | 市场 | 10 月 21 日 | 10月 22 日 | 日 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 轻质纯碱 | 华北市场 | 1170-1270 | 1170-1270 | 0/0 | | | 华东市场 | 1130-1600 | 1130-1600 | 0/0 | | | 华中市场 | 1110-1320 | 110-1320 | 0/0 | | | 西北市场 | 930-1140 | -930-1140 | 0/0 | | | 西南市场 | 1200-1310 | 1200-1310 | 0/0 | | | 华南市场 | 1330-1430 | 1320-1430 | -10/0 | | | 东北市场 | 1260-1370 | 1260-1370 | 0/0 | | 重质纯碱 | 华北市场 | 1180-1320 | 1180-1320 | 0/0 | | | 华东市场 | 1250-1320 | 1250-1320 | 0/0 | | | 华中市场 | 1240-1350- | 1240-1320 | 0/-30 | | | 西北市场 | 940- ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The inventory of steel decreased month - on - month, and steel prices rebounded. The cost of glass and soda ash increased, and their prices rebounded from the low level. The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures rose slightly, while the spot market remained on the sidelines [1][3]. - Glass prices are expected to be volatile and weak, and soda ash prices are also expected to be volatile and weak. Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon prices are expected to remain volatile [2][4]. Market Analysis and Strategy for Different Products Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass futures fluctuated strongly yesterday with active trading. The spot market was cautious, and enterprises offered flexible prices. The supply of glass is on a low - level upward trend, the inventory of middle - stream traders is high and still accumulating. With the end of the consumption peak season approaching and the possibility of some production lines resuming production, glass demand is expected to weaken further [1]. - Soda ash futures also fluctuated strongly yesterday with relatively active trading. The downstream's purchasing enthusiasm was low, mainly for rigid demand. The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash remains prominent, with supply at a high level and still having growth expectations. The demand side has some resilience, and inventory reduction pressure persists throughout the year [1]. - **Strategy** - Glass: Volatile and weak [2]. - Soda ash: Volatile and weak [2]. Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis** - For silicomanganese, the main contract of silicomanganese futures rose slightly yesterday. The silicomanganese market fluctuated, and the market was cautious. The price of 6517 silicomanganese in the northern market was 5630 - 5680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton. From January to August, India's cumulative export volume of silicomanganese was 761,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.90%; the cumulative import volume was 15,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.98%. Silicomanganese enterprises' losses have intensified, production is high, and with the decline of hot metal, demand has weakened. Considering the futures discount to the spot, the price is expected to remain volatile [3]. - For ferrosilicon, the main contract of ferrosilicon futures fluctuated and rose yesterday. The spot price was stable. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural block in Ningxia was 5150 - 5200 yuan/ton, the 72 - grade ferrosilicon standard block was quoted at 5250 - 5300 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade ferrosilicon was quoted at 5800 yuan/ton. Currently, the production of ferrosilicon enterprises has decreased slightly, enterprises are continuously losing money, and the motivation to increase production is insufficient. The downstream demand for ferrosilicon has begun to weaken, and the inventory of sample enterprises has increased [3]. - **Strategy** - Silicomanganese: Volatile [4]. - Ferrosilicon: Volatile [4].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: October 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researcher: Feng Zeren (Soda Ash and Glass) [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Soda ash market is in a weak pattern with supply exceeding demand, and the contract shows signs of bottoming out, expected to fluctuate weakly [8] - Glass market is in a weak balance of supply and demand, and the disk may test the bottom again, but excessive short - selling is not advisable, and attention should be paid to potential positive factors from policies and production lines [9] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Market** - On October 22, the main futures contract SA601 of soda ash fluctuated and rebounded, with a closing price of 1,223 yuan/ton, a rise of 16 yuan/ton, and a daily decline of 924 lots [7] - Fundamentally, supply decreased, inventory increased slightly, and the overall weak pattern remained unchanged. Weekly production decreased by 30,300 tons to 740,500 tons, and enterprise inventory rose to 1.705 million tons [8] - The market supply - demand imbalance has not been effectively improved, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [8] - **Glass Market** - Fundamentally, the production of float glass remained stable, and the photovoltaic glass was in a weak balance. The overall glass supply was at a high level within the year, and the inventory was at a high level after the festival [9] - The real - estate market has not shown a stabilizing trend, and the demand for float glass may not continue to rise. The disk may test the bottom again, but excessive short - selling is not advisable [9] 2. Data Overview - The report provides data on the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, as well as data on soda ash weekly production, enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production [11][17][18] - Data sources include Wind and iFind, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [12][16][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "sideways" outlook for the mid - term of the black building materials industry [7]. 2. Core Views of the Report - As the peak season draws to an end, although the demand for steel products has a slight month - on - month improvement, it cannot strongly support the prices of sector varieties. After the "15th Five - Year Plan" related meeting on October 23, the trading expectation around the introduction of favorable policies is expected to heat up. The fundamentals' guidance for prices will be "blunted", and short - term sector varieties may remain volatile. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the rebound opportunities under the background of policy introduction [1][2][6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals of iron ore have slightly weakened at the margin, but the overall contradiction is not significant. The overseas mine shipments have a slight month - on - month rebound, the arrival volume at 45 ports has declined from a high level, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The daily output of sample hot metal and the steel mill profitability rate have continued to decline slightly, but the hot metal is still at a high level. It is expected that the short - term price will fluctuate. The port trading volume is 122.9(+21.8) million tons, the swap main contract is 105.08(+0.52) dollars/ton, and the PB powder is 781(+4) yuan/ton [2][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply of scrap steel is relatively stable, with a significant decline in the arrival volume this week and a slight year - on - year decrease, and a slight rebound in yesterday's arrival at the port. The demand has seen a slight increase in the daily consumption of scrap steel due to the resumption of some electric furnaces after the festival, and a decrease in the daily consumption of long - process scrap steel due to a slight decline in hot metal production. The inventory has increased slightly in steel enterprises. It is expected that the short - term price will follow the trend of finished products. The average tax - free price of shredded materials in East China is 2173(+1) yuan/ton, and the price difference between rebar and scrap steel in East China is 945(+9) yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The profit margins of the coking and steel sectors have both narrowed, and the game between coking plants and steel mills continues. With the hot metal remaining at a high level in the short term, the expectation of a price increase is strong. It is expected that the coke price will fluctuate. The futures market fluctuated yesterday, and the spot price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is 1470(+20) yuan/ton [12][13]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply has been disrupted, and capacity release is still restricted. The demand for coke production can provide rigid support in the short term, and the fundamentals are relatively healthy with low upstream inventory. However, with the steel under pressure, the upward driving force of furnace materials is temporarily limited. It is expected that the coking coal price will fluctuate in the short term. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu is 1300 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 cleaned coal in Wubulangkou Jinquan Industrial Park is 1307 yuan/ton [12][13]. 3.3 Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: Cost reduction is limited, steel production is at a high level, and macro - policy expectations support the price. However, the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the price center may shift downward in the medium - to - long - term. The main contract price of silicomanganese rose yesterday. The ex - factory price of 6517 silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia is 5680 yuan/ton, and the price of Australian ore blocks with 45.0% Mn at Tianjin Port is 39 yuan/ton - degree [16][18]. - **Ferrosilicon**: High steel production, macro - policy expectations, and firm cost support the price. However, the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the rebound height of the ferrosilicon price is expected to be limited. The main contract price of ferrosilicon rose yesterday, and the ex - factory price of 72 ferrosilicon in Ningxia is 5180(+50) yuan/ton [19]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The upstream inventory has been continuously accumulating, and after the negative feedback between futures and spot, the short - term price shows a weak and volatile trend. The mid - stream has not significantly reduced inventory, and it is difficult to have a rebound in the short term. In the medium - to - long - term, market - oriented production capacity reduction is still needed. If the market refocuses on fundamentals, the price may continue to decline. The mainstream large - plate price in North China is 1140(-20) yuan/ton, and the national average price is 1196(-7) yuan/ton [3][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to follow the macro - fluctuations and have a wide - range volatile trend. In the long run, the price center will continue to decline to promote production capacity reduction. The delivered price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1160 yuan/ton, the daily production is 105,000 tons, and the upstream inventory increased by about 10,000 tons on Monday [16]. 3.5 Steel Products - The spot market transactions are average, with a strong willingness to sell at low prices. The profit of blast furnaces and electric furnaces is not good, but the profitability rate of steel mills is still relatively high. The downward trend of hot metal is not obvious, and there is a situation of electric furnace restart. The supply of steel products is at a relatively high level. The demand continues to recover, but the recovery height is still limited. The steel inventory continues to decline, but the inventory level is still at a moderately high level. It is expected that the short - term futures market will fluctuate at a low level. The price of Hangzhou rebar is 3170(+20) yuan/ton, the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3260(+10) yuan/ton, the trading volume of construction steel is 107,573(+6,422) tons, and the trading volume of hot - rolled coil is 35,237(+2,107) tons [9].

表现低迷，若后续央行降息，对于地产需求将有所支撑，否则恐继续拖累玻璃需求，下游深加工订单小幅 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-10-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 1223 129 | 13 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 6 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1094 1390463 | 7 -924 | | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1659798 | -1382 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -242017 | 17359 | | | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -206377 | 6247 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 10202 | -566 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 455 | 0 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | -55 | 14 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The steel market is currently focused on the Fourth Plenary Session. Steel prices may experience a slight rebound, but the weak fundamentals limit the upside potential, and a subsequent decline is likely. Short - term outlook is for a rebound, while the medium - to - long - term remains weak [3]. - The iron ore market is operating weakly under macro - sentiment and fundamental pressures. The supply is strong, and demand is weak. The price may be supported if there are positive policy signals [18]. - The coking coal market has strong bottom support due to tight resources and policy expectations, but the rebound space is limited by downstream contradictions. The price rebound depends on the downstream steel supply - demand balance [30]. - The ferroalloy market is under pressure due to weak downstream demand and high inventory. Without unexpected stimulus policies, prices will remain under pressure [48]. - The soda ash market has supply pressure in the long - term. Although exports are better than expected, high inventory restricts the price, with limited downside due to cost support [61]. - The glass market has weak demand and high inventory, and prices are suppressed. The implementation of the coal - to - gas project in Shahe and production line ignition plans need to be monitored [86]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices and Spreads** - On October 22, 2025, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3068 yuan/ton, up from 3047 yuan/ton on the 21st. The 01 - 05 month - spread was - 52 yuan/ton, up from - 57 yuan/ton [4]. - The hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3247 yuan/ton on the 22nd, up from 3219 yuan/ton on the 21st. The 01 - 05 month - spread was - 12 yuan/ton, up from - 17 yuan/ton [4]. - The rebar - to - iron ore ratio and rebar - to - coke ratio remained stable on the 22nd compared to the 21st [15]. - **Spot Prices and Basis** - The aggregated rebar price in China was 3215 yuan/ton on the 22nd, up slightly from 3212 yuan/ton on the 21st. The 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 142 yuan/ton, down from 153 yuan/ton [7]. - The aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton on the 22nd, up from 3270 yuan/ton on the 21st. The 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 33 yuan/ton, down from 51 yuan/ton [9]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Basis** - On October 22, 2025, the 01 contract closed at 774 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan from the 21st. The 01 basis was 7.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan from the 21st [19]. - The price of Rizhao PB powder was 779 yuan/ton on the 22nd, up 2 yuan from the 21st [19]. - **Fundamentals** - The daily average pig - iron output was 240.95 million tons on October 17, 2025, down 0.59 million tons week - on - week. The 45 - port inventory was 14278.27 million tons, up 253.77 million tons week - on - week [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads** - On October 22, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1238 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan week - on - week. The coking coal 09 - 01 month - spread was 153 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from the 21st [35]. - The coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1594 yuan/ton, unchanged from the 21st. The coke 09 - 01 month - spread was 220 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan from the 21st [35]. - **Spot Prices and Profits** - The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal was 1550 yuan/ton on the 22nd, up 20 yuan week - on - week. The immediate coking profit was 31 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the 21st [36]. Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron** - On October 22, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 8 yuan, down 14 yuan from the 21st. The silicon iron 01 - 05 month - spread was - 60 yuan, down 24 yuan from the 21st [49]. - The silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5280 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the 21st [49]. - **Silicon Manganese** - The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 220 yuan on the 22nd, down 64 yuan from the 21st. The silicon manganese 01 - 05 month - spread was - 38 yuan, down 4 yuan from the 21st [52]. - The silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5680 yuan/ton, unchanged from the 21st [52]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads** - On October 22, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1308 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the 21st. The 05 - 09 month - spread was - 62 yuan, up 1 yuan from the 21st [62]. - **Spot Prices** - The heavy - soda ash market price in North China was 1300 yuan/ton on the 22nd, unchanged from the 21st. The heavy - soda ash to light - soda ash price difference in North China was 100 yuan/ton [65]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads** - On October 22, 2025, the glass 05 contract closed at 1241 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the 21st. The 05 - 09 month - spread was - 89 yuan, down 3 yuan from the 21st [86]. - **Sales and Production** - On October 21, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was 59%, in Hubei was 86%, in East China was 84%, and in South China was 98% [87].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth of China's soda ash (sodium carbonate) production, indicating a positive trend in the industry with a year-on-year increase in production figures for 2025 [1] Industry Summary - As of August 2025, China's soda ash production reached 3.28 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [1] - Cumulative production from January to August 2025 totaled 26.254 million tons, with a cumulative growth rate of 3.4% [1] - The data is sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics and compiled by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China [1] Company Summary - Listed companies in the soda ash sector include: Yuanxing Energy (000683), Sanyou Chemical (600409), Shandong Haihua (000822), Shuanghuan Technology (000707), Chlor-Alkali Chemical (600618), Jinjing Technology (600586), Hubei Yihua (000422), Yuntu Holdings (002539), and Hebang Biotechnology (603077) [1] - The report provides insights into the competitive strategies and market analysis for the soda ash industry from 2025 to 2031 [1]