Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the粕类 and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][6] Core Viewpoints - In the current situation, the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans in China is putting significant supply pressure on the domestic market. The increasing soybean inventory and weakening Brazilian soybean premiums suggest limited support for import costs. Future attention should be paid to the arrival of new - season soybeans, the planting of new - season US soybeans, and policy changes [3] - For the corn market, the supply of domestic corn has slightly increased, while the demand from deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the procurement by feed enterprises has been relatively passive [5] Summary by Directory 粕类 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 2961 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.17%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2604 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.19%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2850 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2890 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2560 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] - US Market: As of May 25, the US soybean planting progress reached 76%, the emergence rate was 50%. As of May 22, the US soybean export inspection volume was 19.5 tons, and the total export inspection volume in the 2024/25 season reached 4433 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.0% [2] Market Analysis - Currently, it is the concentrated arrival period of Brazilian soybeans, bringing supply pressure to the domestic market. The soybean meal inventory has been increasing, and the weakening of Brazilian soybean premiums provides limited support for import costs [3] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2507 contract was 2325 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2507 contract was 2663 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (+0.41%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4] - US Market: As of May 25, the US corn crop's first - rated good - to - excellent rate was 68%, and the planting progress reached 87% [4] Market Analysis - Domestically, the supply of corn has slightly increased, while the demand from deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the procurement by feed enterprises has been relatively passive [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]

4. 印尼贸易部公布的一项监管规定显示，印尼已将6月份的毛棕榈油参考价格下调至每吨856.38美元，5 月份为每吨924.46美元。在新参考价格下，6月毛棕榈油出口关税将为52美元/吨，低于上个月的每吨74 美元。 5. 国家粮油信息中心船期监测显示，近月我国菜籽进口买船仍较多，预期6月到港量20万吨，7月份13万 吨，8月份后进口菜籽将明显减少。尽管国内菜油库存高企，但企业采购俄罗斯、阿联酋等地菜油积极 性依然较高，预期6月份菜油进口量20万吨，7月份18万吨。 6. 据路透调查，亚洲炼油商表示，沙特可能会将7月售往亚洲的官方原油售价下调至六个月低位，以反 映因欧佩克+供应增加而导致的基准油价下跌。 7. 据隆众资讯，截至2025年5月28日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在52.30万吨，较上一期数据增加3.26万 吨。 9. 利比亚东部政府周三表示，可能宣布油田和港口遭遇不可抗力，理由是"利比亚国家石油公司屡遭攻 击"。 金十数据整理：每日期货市场要闻速递（5月29日） 1. 大商所、广期所公告指出，2025年端午节休市期间，交易所各品种期货合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证 金标准保持不变。 2. 美国一家联邦法院（美 ...

Group 1 - The core concern revolves around whether U.S. wheat futures prices can sustain their recovery following data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture [1] - U.S. soybean futures prices have experienced a decline, raising questions about the future trajectory of the agricultural market [1] - The overall outlook for agricultural products is uncertain, influenced by recent market movements and USDA data [1]

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the reports Group 2: Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil in Malaysia and China shows a short - term rebound, but long - term view on domestic palm oil remains weak. Soybean oil has short - term strong performance but faces inventory increase and weak demand in the domestic market, with its basis expected to decline [1]. Meal - Two types of meal are expected to maintain an oscillatory structure. US soybeans have no unilateral upward trend. Domestic meal supply pressure will increase, but the basis has limited room to fall [2]. Corn - In the short term, corn prices are stable with narrow - range oscillations. In the long term, supply tightening and increased demand will support price increases [4]. Pork - Spot pork prices have rebounded slightly. The 09 contract follows the spot price with a limited upward drive and no basis for a sharp decline [7][8]. Sugar - The supply outlook for 25/26 is optimistic, and the price of raw sugar is expected to oscillate weakly. Domestic sugar prices are also expected to maintain an oscillatory weak trend [11]. Cotton - The downstream demand for cotton has resilience, and the spot basis is strong, providing support for cotton prices. However, the long - term demand is not strong, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [13]. Eggs - The national egg supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand may first decrease and then increase. Egg prices are expected to first fall and then rise this week with a small adjustment range [15]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On May 27, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8100 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2509 was 7510 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The basis decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The inventory is expected to increase [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong on May 27 was 8550 yuan/ton, up 0.35%. The futures price of P2509 was 7980 yuan/ton, up 0.76%. The basis decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The import profit increased by 31 yuan/ton [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu on May 27 was 9280 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The futures price of OI509 was 9109 yuan/ton, up 0.92%. The basis decreased by 113 yuan/ton [1]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2940 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures price of M2509 was 2966 yuan/ton, up 0.54%. The basis decreased by 16 yuan/ton. The inventory of oil mills is at a low level [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2520 yuan/ton, up 0.40%. The futures price of RM2509 was 2599 yuan/ton, up 1.29%. The basis decreased by 23 yuan/ton [2]. Corn - **Corn**: On May 27, the futures price of Corn 2507 was 2324 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. The basis decreased by 6 yuan/ton. The long - term supply is expected to tighten [4]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of Corn Starch 2507 was 2652 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. The basis increased by 1 yuan/ton. The profit of Shandong starch decreased by 4 yuan/ton [4]. Pork - **Futures**: The futures price of the main contract increased by 16.87%. The price of the 2507 contract was 13250 yuan/ton, down 0.08%, and the 2509 contract was 13560 yuan/ton, down 0.29% [7]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Henan was 14530 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The slaughter volume increased by 0.83%, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 40.23% [7]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract was 5708 yuan/ton, up 0.16%. The price of the 2509 contract was 5841 yuan/ton, up 0.10%. The price of ICE raw sugar decreased by 0.35% [11]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 6155 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis decreased, and the import price of Brazilian sugar decreased [11]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract was 13330 yuan/ton, down 0.41%. The price of the 2601 contract was 13385 yuan/ton, down 0.37%. The price of ICE US cotton decreased by 0.73% [13]. - **Spot**: The arrival price in Xinjiang was 14485 yuan/ton, down 0.13%. The industrial inventory decreased by 2.6%, and the import volume decreased by 14.3% [13]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract was 3713 yuan/500KG, down 1.41%. The price of the 06 contract was 2696 yuan/500KG, down 2.39% [15]. - **Spot**: The spot price in the egg - producing area was 3.05 yuan/jin, up 1.72%. The basis increased by 110 yuan/500KG, and the breeding profit increased by 7.32% [15].

大豆市场"明牌增产"为何不敢跌？巴西玉米收获延迟，短期供应缺口风险几何？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chicago wheat futures declined as traders focus on rainfall in the U.S. Plains, particularly in drought-affected areas of southwestern Kansas, which may provide much-needed moisture for long-term dry farmland [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Wheat prices on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange fell by over 2% as traders reacted to the weather conditions [1] - The market is closely monitoring the U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress and condition report for any signs of improvement [1] Group 2: Weather Impact - Rainfall has been reported in parts of southwestern Kansas, which is the largest winter wheat-producing region in the U.S. [1] - There is potential for further rainfall, which could alleviate drought conditions affecting agricultural production [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Strong Buy (★★★)**: Soybean (Domestic), Corn [1] - **Buy (★☆☆)**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Live Hogs, Eggs [1] - **Neutral**: Not specified Core Views - The prices of domestic agricultural products show various trends, with factors such as policy, supply - demand, weather, and imports influencing them. Different products have different outlooks, including oscillations, potential rises, and declines [2][3][4] Summary by Product Soybean - Domestic soybeans are in an oscillating trend after a recent price decline. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has narrowed. Imported soybeans have abundant supply from May to July due to large - scale arrivals from Brazil. Mid - term prices of both domestic and US soybeans are expected to be affected by weather, with a predicted oscillating and bullish trend [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Soybean meal prices in most domestic regions are falling, with weakening spot basis and increasing inventory. Supply has become more abundant since May, and the market lacks a driver for continuous price increases [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The domestic futures market shows a pattern of strong meal and weak oil. The domestic soybean oil and palm oil futures are expected to follow the US soybean market. Both soybean and palm oil are expected to maintain an interval - oscillating trend, affected by factors such as supply and overseas production [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed products generally rose today, with rapeseed meal outperforming rapeseed oil. Mid - term policies may bring import bottlenecks, which will relieve supply pressure. The demand for rapeseed meal is promising, and a bullish strategy is recommended [6] Corn - Northeast corn prices are stable, while Shandong's purchase prices are weakening. North port inventories are below 4 million tons, and south port inventories are increasing. The market is expected to be oscillating and bearish in the next stage [7] Live Hogs - The live hog futures market is weakly oscillating, and spot prices are slightly rebounding. Long - term supply is expected to recover, and downward pressure on spot prices may affect the futures market [8] Eggs - Egg futures prices are falling with increased positions, while spot prices are rebounding in many areas. After the Dragon Boat Festival, supply pressure may lead to further price drops, and a short - selling strategy is recommended for the futures market [9]

菜籽系产业日报 2025-05-27 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 免责声明 间震荡，短线参与为主。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9444 | 62 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2599 | 33 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 182 353590 | -16 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) 27423 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 252 615879 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Palm oil: There are still risks in the producing areas, and it is oscillating to find the bottom [2][6]. - Soybean oil: The driving force of the soybean system is weak, and it is oscillating within a range [2][6]. - Soybean meal: The U.S. soybeans were closed overnight, and the Dalian soybean meal is oscillating [2][15]. - Soybean: The futures price is oscillating weakly [2][15]. - Corn: It is oscillating [2][18]. - Sugar: It is oscillating in a narrow range [2][22]. - Cotton: The demand fails to meet expectations, and the cotton price has dropped slightly [2][27]. - Eggs: Wait for the verification of culling after the Dragon Boat Festival [2][32]. - Pigs: Passive inventory accumulation has formed, and a trend reverse spread strategy is adopted [2][34]. - Peanuts: Focus on the spot market [2][38]. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of the palm oil main contract was 7,954 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.65%, and 7,982 yuan/ton during the night session, up 0.35%. The closing price of the soybean oil main contract was 7,704 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.90%, and 7,714 yuan/ton during the night session, up 0.13% [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From May 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.73%. Exports from May 1 - 25 increased by 7.3% (AmSpec) and 34.71% (SGS) compared to the same period last month. Datagro expects Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to reach 1.72 billion tons [7][9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0 [13]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of DCE soybean 2507 was 4,144 yuan/ton during the day session, down 1.22%, and 4,137 yuan/ton during the night session, down 0.53%. The closing price of DCE soybean meal 2509 was 2,950 yuan/ton during the day session, unchanged, and 2,956 yuan/ton during the night session, up 0.31% [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The U.S. market was closed on Monday due to a public holiday. Datagro raised Brazil's soybean production forecast to a record 1.72 billion tons [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and that of soybean is -1 (only referring to the price fluctuation of the main contract during the day session on the reporting day) [17]. Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of C2507 was 2,318 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.39%, and 2,322 yuan/ton during the night session, up 0.17%. The closing price of C2509 was 2,344 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.34%, and 2,348 yuan/ton during the night session, up 0.17% [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The northern corn collection price was 2,260 - 2,280 yuan/ton (new crop listing), and the price in Guangdong Shekou was 2,370 - 2,390 yuan/ton [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of corn is 0 [21]. Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The raw sugar price was 17.31 cents/pound, down 0.07%. The mainstream spot price was 6,140 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The U.S. dollar index fell below 100 again. Brazil's crushing progress slowed down year - on - year. The USDA expects the global sugar production to increase by 4.73% in the 25/26 season [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of sugar is -1 [25]. Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of CF2509 was 13,385 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.19%, and 13,285 yuan/ton during the night session, down 0.75%. The closing price of CY2507 was 19,580 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.36%, and 19,465 yuan/ton during the night session, down 0.59% [27]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The cotton spot trading was light, and the mainstream basis remained firm. The cotton yarn market was gradually weakening, and the confidence of spinning enterprises was low [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of cotton is 0 [31]. Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of egg 2507 was 2,943 yuan/500 kg, down 1.01%. The closing price of egg 2509 was 3,766 yuan/500 kg, up 0.11% [32]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [32]. Pigs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The spot price in Henan was 14,450 yuan/ton, in Sichuan was 14,200 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong was 15,340 yuan/ton. The closing price of pig 2507 was 13,260 yuan/ton, and that of pig 2509 was 13,600 yuan/ton [34]. - **Market Logic**: Passive inventory accumulation occurred in mid - to - late May. If the second - fattening policy is fully implemented, it will drive slow inventory reduction. Long - term reverse spread strategies for 7 - 1, 9 - 1, and 11 - 1 can be laid out [36]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of pigs is 0 [35]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 8,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The closing price of PK510 was 8,252 yuan/ton, down 0.75%, and that of PK511 was 8,164 yuan/ton, down 0.75% [38]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, the price of Baisha general peanuts in Huangludian was about 4.6 yuan/jin, and in Kaifeng, the price of large peanut general peanuts was about 4.3 yuan/jin. The supply in most producing areas was low, and the price was stable [39]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of the soybean market is relatively loose, with high yields in Brazil and Argentina, and smooth progress in the new - crop planting of US soybeans. The domestic soybean market also faces inventory accumulation pressure. For sugar, it is expected to show a short - term weak and volatile trend. The short - term trend of the oil market is expected to be volatile, and the corn market is expected to be stable in the short - term with strong support for futures. The pig market has short - term supply pressure, and the peanut market has limited rebound space. The egg supply is sufficient, and the apple market may be slightly weak in the short - term. The cotton market is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend [3][5][10][19][28][33][37][48][52][58] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **外盘情况**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.45% to 1057.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.33% to $302.2 per short ton [2] - **相关资讯**: Brazil's soybean production reached 169 million tons this year. The global rapeseed production may be about 800,000 - 900,000 tons less. Brazil launched a 28 - day avian influenza observation period. As of the week of May 23, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2093 million tons, the开机率 was 62.1%, the soybean inventory increased by 9.71% week - on - week, and the soybean meal inventory increased by 20.26% week - on - week [2] - **逻辑分析**: The overall supply of the soybean market is relatively loose, and the domestic oil mills face inventory accumulation pressure [3][5] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, slightly allocate long positions; for arbitrage, conduct M11 - 1 positive arbitrage and expand the MRM spread; for options, adopt the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [6] Sugar - **外盘情况**: ICE US sugar fell 0.32 (1.81%) to 17.38 cents per pound [7] - **重要资讯**: The spot price of Guangxi sugar rose slightly, and the quotes of sugar - making groups in various regions decreased. The inventory in Guangxi's third - party warehouses increased year - on - year, and the destocking speed was the lowest in the same period of the past five years. The import cost of Brazilian sugar decreased, and there was import profit [8] - **逻辑分析**: Brazil is about to enter the peak crushing period, and the domestic sugar market is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [10] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, view it as weak and volatile; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for options, sell wide - straddle options or out - of - the - money ratio spread options [11][12][13] Oil - **外盘情况**: The overnight CBOT US soybean oil main price changed by - 0.44% to 49.22 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil main price changed by 0.16% to 3827 ringgit per ton [15] - **相关资讯**: Malaysia's palm oil production from May 1 - 20 increased by 3.51%. Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 25 increased by 11.6% compared with the same period last month. Argentina's soybean planting area and output increased, and the soybean harvest rate was 77%. Canada's rapeseed exports increased, and the commercial inventory was 966,700 tons [16][17][18] - **逻辑分析**: Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to increase production and accumulate inventory in May. The soybean oil inventory accumulation speed may slow down, and the rapeseed oil supply exceeds demand, but the decline space may be limited [19] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, the oil market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and palm oil can be short - sold at the upper limit of the range; for arbitrage, consider expanding the YP 09 spread at low levels and going long on OI 91 at low levels; for options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [20][21][22] Corn/Corn Starch - **外盘变化**: CBOT corn futures declined, with the main contract falling 0.3% to 459.5 cents per bushel [24] - **重要资讯**: CBOT corn futures rose last week due to slow spring sowing and good export sales. The temperature in the US corn - producing states is expected to be higher than normal, and the precipitation is expected to be lower than normal. The corn inventory of major processing enterprises increased slightly. The purchase price in the northern port and the price in the North China production area were stable [25][27] - **逻辑分析**: The US corn report is stable, and the sowing speed is accelerating. The domestic corn supply is relatively small, and the spot price is relatively stable. The 07 corn contract is in a low - level shock, and the basis difference is narrowing [28] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, the 07 corn contract has support at around 440 cents per bushel, and long positions can be tried; for arbitrage, conduct shock operations on the corn and starch arbitrage and expand the spread at low levels; for options, those with spot can consider the strategy of accumulating put options at high prices [29][30] Pig - **相关资讯**: The pig price showed a weak trend, and the prices of piglets and sows decreased slightly. The wholesale price of pork increased [32][33] - **逻辑分析**: The enthusiasm of farmers for slaughter is still relatively high, and the short - term supply pressure still exists [33] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, the market is mainly in a shock operation; for arbitrage, conduct LH79 reverse arbitrage; for options, sell wide - straddle options [34] Peanut - **重要资讯**: The quotes of peanuts in various regions are relatively stable, and the arrivals and transaction prices of peanut oil mills vary. The price of peanut oil is relatively strong, and the sales of peanut meal are average. The peanut inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly, and the peanut oil inventory decreased slightly [35][36] - **逻辑分析**: The spot trading volume of peanuts is still small, the import volume has decreased significantly, the downstream consumption is still weak, but the large - scale oil mills' purchases have boosted the market. The 10 - contract peanut is short - term strong, but the rebound space is limited [37] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach for the 10 - contract peanut; for arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [38][39][40] Egg - **重要资讯**: The average price of eggs in the main production areas decreased, and the price in the main sales areas also decreased. The inventory of laying hens increased, the egg - chick hatching volume increased, the slaughter volume of laying hens increased, the egg sales volume increased, the inventory in the production and circulation links decreased, and the egg - raising profit increased [43][44][45] - **交易逻辑**: The overall egg supply is still sufficient, and it is recommended to close the previous short positions and wait and see [48] - **交易策略**: No specific strategies provided in the text Apple - **重要资讯**: The apple inventory in cold storage decreased, the export volume increased, the import volume increased significantly, the market destocking speed slowed down, the terminal demand decreased slightly, the new - season apple is entering the bagging stage, and the precipitation in the western region has alleviated the drought to some extent. The spot price is expected to be stable in the short - term, and the storage profit has increased [49][50][51] - **交易逻辑**: The apple market is in the peak of weather - related trading. The market may revise the previous pessimistic expectations, and the spot market sales have slowed down, but the low inventory has a certain supporting effect on the price [52] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, short positions can consider closing the positions and waiting and seeing, and then build long positions at low levels for the AP10 contract; for arbitrage, go long on the 08 contract and short the 09 contract; for options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [50][53] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **外盘影响**: ICE US cotton rose 0.39 (0.59%) to 66.06 cents per pound [54] - **重要资讯**: As of May 18, the US cotton planting rate was 40%, slower than the same period last year and the five - year average. The drought in the US main production areas has been alleviated. The weekly signing volume of US upland cotton increased, and the weekly shipping volume decreased. The number of un - priced contracts of ICE cotton decreased [55][56][57] - **交易逻辑**: The market fundamentals change little, and the Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend under the influence of the macro - level [58] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, the US cotton is expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile trend, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be stronger in a volatile trend; for arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [59][60]