中国发展网讯 五一假期期间，湖北京山市以"宠客政策"与"惠民举措"为双引擎，推动文旅、餐饮、住 宿、零售等多领域协同发展，消费市场迎来热潮，交出了一份亮眼的成绩单。 宠客政策暖人心，文旅体验再升级 住宿市场全线飘红，王府·君赞酒店贴心提供延时早餐、免费茶点，金山国际等多家酒店入住率连续多 日达100%，全市酒店接待旅客超5000人次。零售领域掀起"以旧换新"热潮，比亚迪（002594）4S店、 工贸家电等企业推出补贴活动，完成交易852笔、销售额597万元，同比增长9.6%。 景区惠民举措亮眼 亲子游成市场主流 绿林山风景区与泰康·京山农场成为热门打卡地。泰康·京山农场推出"三不三有"政策：不涨价、免门票 停车费，提供免费烟花秀、花鼓戏及管家服务，家庭游客占比超60%。随州游客王先生表示："农场酒 店订满，住周边也玩得尽兴。" 绿林山风景区创新体验场景，美人谷新添迎宾瀑景观，汉服巡游吸引游客穿越打卡；鸳鸯溪漂流首日开 漂，99元早鸟票预售火爆，景区整体接待量同比增长10%-20%，美人谷日均接待5000余人次。 从文旅惠民到消费提质，京山市以"宠客"诚意与"惠民"实招，激活了假日经济的"一池春水"，既让游客 ...

经营范围含酒店管理；游览景区管理；会议及展览服务；商业综合体管理服务；城市绿化管理；旅游开 发项目策划咨询；其他文化艺术经纪代理；文艺创作；咨询策划服务；休闲观光活动；外卖递送服务； 日用百货销售；租赁服务（不含许可类租赁服务）；停车场服务；票务代理服务；洗烫服务；广告设 计、代理；广告制作；广告发布；健身休闲活动；餐饮器具集中消毒服务；供应链管理服务；婚庆礼仪 服务；工艺美术品及礼仪用品销售（象牙及其制品除外）；公园、景区小型设施娱乐活动（除依法须经 批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活动）许可项目：旅游业务；演出场所经营；房地产开发 经营；住宿服务；餐饮服务；食品销售；洗浴服务；歌舞娱乐活动（依法须经批准的项目，经相关部门 批准后方可开展经营活动，具体经营项目以相关部门批准文件或许可证件为准） 企业名称栾川县鸾州渡酒店管理有限公司法定代表人王辉注册资本500万人民币国标行业住宿和餐饮业 >住宿业>一般旅馆地址河南省洛阳市栾川县栾川乡樊营村鸾州渡假日小镇C区1号企业类型有限责任公 司（非自然人投资或控股的法人独资）营业期限2025-5-12至无固定期限登记机关栾川县市场监督管理 局 天眼查App显示， ...

Core Insights - The May Day holiday in China witnessed an unprecedented surge in tourism, with major cities experiencing overwhelming crowds and travel demand exceeding expectations [1][2] - A notable trend emerged where travelers preferred longer trips, with cross-city orders accounting for 90% of bookings, indicating a shift towards "reverse tourism" where less popular destinations saw significant growth [4][7] - The entertainment sector, particularly concerts and music festivals, significantly boosted tourism in second-tier cities, with hotel prices in these areas increasing by 200% due to high demand from concert-goers [8][9] Transportation and Travel Trends - The transportation system faced a "stress test" during the holiday, with peak traffic on highways reaching 2.1 times the normal volume, totaling 62 million vehicles on May 1 [2] - The trend of "rational travel" emerged, with travelers opting for off-peak travel to save costs, reflecting a more mature consumer mindset [7] Accommodation Dynamics - The accommodation market displayed a stark contrast, with hotels in prime locations experiencing price surges and high occupancy, while less central areas offered more affordable options [9][10] - There was a doubling in bookings for high-end homestays and vacation packages, indicating a trend towards premium travel experiences [10] Cross-Border and Domestic Tourism - Outbound tourism remained popular, particularly to traditional destinations like Japan and Thailand, but inbound tourism saw a remarkable increase of 141%, highlighting China's growing appeal to foreign visitors [11] - County-level tourism orders grew by nearly 20%, with rural tourism experiencing a 40% increase, reflecting a shift towards more localized and authentic travel experiences [13] Cultural and Entertainment Integration - The film market showed differentiated competition, with domestic films performing strongly during the holiday, indicating a shift in audience preferences towards relatable content [12] - Night tours of museums and historical sites gained popularity, showcasing innovative cultural experiences that go beyond traditional ticket sales [17] Consumer Behavior and Market Evolution - The younger generation, particularly Gen Z, is reshaping the travel market with a focus on experiences that align with their interests, such as music festivals and unique accommodations [16] - The diversification of tourism consumption patterns was evident, moving from mere sightseeing to immersive experiences that combine entertainment, food, and local culture [18]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 韩港（微信 HGK1366） 2&3 ）从就业 & 工资来看 ，结合量（以就业增速衡量）价（以工资增速变化衡量）两个维度， 2024 年， 建筑业或是"缩量保价"，即农民工就业人数减少、但工资增速提升。制造业是"量价齐升"，农民工就业人数 增长、同时工资增速提升，后续吸纳就业或仍有空间。交运仓储、批发零售、住宿餐饮则是"量升价落"， 后续吸纳就业或面临量与价的抉择。 4 ）从消费结构看 ，此前农民工消费结构更侧重商品消费，但从近期情况看，其教育、住房、娱乐等服务 消费或在快速增长，消费结构有望向服务倾斜。 5 ）从经济体感看， 我们计算农民工视角下的 GDP 增速。 2020-2022 年该增速持续高于官方 GDP 增速， 对应该时期消费 K 型复苏。 2023-2024 年农民工视角下的 GDP 增速持续高于官方 GDP 增速，对应该时期 消费下沉。而从 2025 年一季度看，农民工视角下的 GDP 与官方 GDP 之间的差距已基本弥合，意味着此 前的消费 K 型复苏、 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ❖ 一、人流：主要流向东部，但规模已不及 2019 年 农民工从哪里来，到哪里去？2024 年，农民工总数为 3.0 亿人，总量创新高， 占到我国就业总人数的 41%。从输出地看，农民工主要来自东部、中部地区， 分别为 1.1、1.0 亿人，占到 35%、33%。而输入地主要集中在东部，为 1.5 亿 人、占比 51%。 短期看，农民工仍在向东部流动。使用各地区农民工输入数-输出数，观察农 民工的净流动情况。2024 年农民工净流入集中在东部、其他地区（中国港澳 台地区及海外），2024 年分别净流入 4834、89 万人，同比增长 41、19 万人。 【宏观快评】 农民工群体的五点观察 ❖ 核心观点 2024 年农民工群体已达 3 亿人，创历史新高，本文关注农民工的近况。 1）从人口流动来看，2024 年农民工仍主要流向东部地区，但对比 2019 年， 净流入规模已减少约 450 万人。 2&3）从就业&工资来看，结合量（以就业增速衡量）价（以工资增速变化衡 量）两个维度，2024 年，建筑业或是"缩量保价"，即农民工就业人数减少、 但工资增速提升。制造业是"量价齐升"，农 ...

Group 1 - The development index for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in China was reported at 89.2 in April, a slight decrease of 0.3 points from March, following a significant rise in the first quarter [1] - Among the sub-indices, 1 increased while 7 decreased, with 2 industry indices rising and 6 falling, indicating mixed performance across sectors [1] - The regional indices for SMEs showed declines across all areas, with the eastern, central, western, and northeastern regions reporting indices of 90.2, 89.5, 88.8, and 81.2 respectively, all lower than in March [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic sentiment index, comprehensive operation index, market index, funding index, labor index, input index, and efficiency index all saw declines compared to March, with decreases ranging from 0.2 to 0.9 points [1] - The cost index shifted from a decrease to an increase, rising by 0.1 points from March, indicating a fluctuation in the economic environment for SMEs [1] - The real estate and wholesale retail sectors experienced a slight recovery, each increasing by 0.1 points compared to March, while other sectors like industry, construction, transportation, social services, information transmission software, and accommodation and catering saw declines [1] Group 3 - The executive vice president of the China SME Association emphasized the need to implement recent policies from the Central Political Bureau, including enhancing domestic market demand and providing support for private SMEs [2] - The government is encouraged to strengthen assistance for private SMEs to build resilience and create favorable conditions for stabilizing employment, businesses, markets, and expectations [2]

今年以来，各地完善消费政策，创新消费场景，改善消费条件，消费潜力在这个假期进一步释放。 各大商圈频频"上新"，首发、首秀、首展密集落地。上海36个时尚地标同频共振，近百场品牌新品首秀 轮番上演，带火周边餐饮、住宿、旅游和购物，"首发经济"集聚引流效应充分释放。 "五一"假期，丰富的文旅活动、多样的消费场景、创新的消费业态，全球最具发展潜力的消费市场持续 涌动着新活力。 假日里的中国，在流动和忙碌中尽显生机。 75条旅游专线穿梭在大江南北，串联山河美景，带动跨城消费持续升温。 全国1000多个县城的酒店预订量同比增长超三成，"小城故事"演绎新精彩，成为消费新增长点。 假期入境游销售额同比增长约90%，离境退税"即买即退"全国落地，升级"焕新"的中国游吸引全球目 光。 商务部商务大数据监测，"五一"期间，全国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额同比增长6.3%，网上零售额同比 增长9.3%。 消费是经济增长的重要引擎。在部署今年经济工作重点时，习近平总书记强调把"大力提振消费、提高 投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求"放在首位，并部署提振消费的重点任务，积极发展首发经济、冰雪经 济、银发经济。各地考察中，围绕扩大消费，习近平总书记 ...

Core CPI and Economic Resilience - In April, China's core CPI remained stable year-on-year, reflecting the resilience of the domestic economy despite external fluctuations [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.5% year-on-year, indicating a stable inflationary environment [1][2] CPI and Price Movements - The overall CPI in April saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, reversing a previous decline of 0.4% [1][2] - Food prices rose by 0.2% month-on-month, influenced by seasonal factors and demand recovery, particularly in travel services [2][3] - Energy prices decreased by 4.8% year-on-year, with gasoline prices dropping by 10.4%, contributing significantly to the overall CPI decline [2][3] PPI Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, indicating a consistent downward trend in industrial prices [3][4] - The gap between purchase prices and factory prices has narrowed, suggesting synchronized adjustments in upstream and downstream prices [4] Policy Measures and Economic Outlook - The Chinese government is intensifying economic stabilization policies, including a comprehensive financial policy package aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations [5][6] - Upcoming holidays and strong tourism demand are expected to drive service prices up, leading to a moderate recovery in CPI [6]

Group 1: Overview of the Tourism and Cultural Market - The domestic travel market experienced significant growth during the May Day holiday, with 314 million domestic trips taken, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [1][3] - Total spending by domestic tourists reached 180.27 billion yuan, marking an 8.0% increase compared to the previous year [1][3] - Nighttime cultural and tourism consumption areas saw a total of 75.95 million visitors, reflecting a 5.2% year-on-year growth [1][3] Group 2: Retail and Dining Sector Performance - Key retail and catering enterprises reported a sales increase of 6.3% during the holiday [4] - The automotive sector saw over 60,000 subsidy applications, driving new car sales worth 8.8 billion yuan [4] - Sales of 12 categories of home appliances reached 11.9 billion yuan, with 3.56 million units sold [4] Group 3: Consumer Complaints in the Travel Industry - The travel industry faced a notable increase in complaints, with nearly 50,000 complaints recorded from April 6 to May 5, a rise of 11.26% compared to the same period in 2024 [9][27] - Complaints peaked on May 1, with 2,631 complaints filed on that day alone [9][27] - Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) accounted for nearly half of the complaints, with a share of 46.89% [12][28] Group 4: Issues with OTA Platforms - Complaints related to hotel bookings made through OTAs were particularly prominent, with nearly 11,000 complaints, representing 45.86% of OTA complaints [16][28] - Issues included unilateral cancellation of bookings and discrepancies between booked and actual accommodations [28] - Complaints regarding flight bookings approached 6,000, focusing on high cancellation fees and difficulties in changing tickets [29] Group 5: Airline Complaint Trends - In the airline sector, complaints about cancellation and change fees were the most significant, exceeding 55% of total complaints [19][31] - Many consumers reported high cancellation fees, with some facing fees as high as 80% of the ticket price [31] - Complaints about flight delays and cancellations accounted for over 6% of total airline complaints [31] Group 6: Ticketing and Accommodation Complaints - The ticketing sector saw a rise in complaints, with nearly 5,400 complaints recorded, a 22.88% increase [34] - Concerts and music festivals accounted for over 60% of ticketing complaints, primarily due to refusal to refund tickets and high cancellation fees [34][35] - In the accommodation sector, issues with short-term rentals, particularly with platforms like Muban, were prevalent, including difficulties in contacting hosts and sudden price hikes [36][37] Group 7: Industry Challenges and Recommendations - The data highlights significant service quality issues across the travel, ticketing, and accommodation sectors, indicating a need for improved management and transparency [38] - Recommendations include enhancing OTA platform management, optimizing airline cancellation policies, and regulating the short-term rental market to protect consumer rights [38][42] - A collaborative effort among businesses, regulatory bodies, and consumers is essential to foster a healthy and fair market environment [42]