2025年4月30日，中金黄金（600489）股份有限公司(简称：中金黄金)正式发布2024年年度报告及2025 年第一季度报告。2024年全年及2025年一季度，公司紧抓黄金行业战略机遇期，狠抓生产经营，持续深 化改革，主要财务指标实现稳健增长。 2024年，中金黄金面对错综复杂的外部形势和艰巨繁重改革发展任务，始终坚持稳中求进工作总基调， 围绕以核心竞争力提升促高质量发展这一主题，圆满完成年度主要生产任务，经营指标持续增长、资产 质量持续提升、核心竞争力持续巩固、市场形象和市值水平持续向好，实现价值创造力、改革深化效 能、科技创新引领力、企业治理水平、风险防控根基和党建引领作用六个方面持续提升，为公司高质量 发展新征程奠定了坚实基础。 锚定高质量发展目标创新驱动绿色转型 中金黄金始终以科技创新为引擎，推动绿色矿山建设和智能化升级。2024年，公司研发费用7.30亿元， 同比增加0.47亿元，获得省部级或行业协会奖16项，新申请专利157项，其中新申请发明专利38项，获 得授权专利81项，其中授权发明专利22项。同时，公司积极响应"双碳"目标，连续10年披露社会责任报 告(ESG报告)，ESG治理水平持续提 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Macro: Positive policy signals from domestic important meetings and reduced US tariff negatives have cooled market risk aversion. Attention should be paid to negotiation progress [4]. - Fundamentals: Domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain negative. After the copper price fell from its high, terminal consumption recovered, and social inventories continued to decline. As of April 24, the copper inventory in major regions across the country dropped to 181,700 tons, with eight consecutive weeks of inventory reduction [4]. - Overall Logic: Trump's tariff remarks are volatile, market sentiment has eased, and the copper price has rebounded to fill the gap. Attention should be paid to whether there will be new macro - level positive support, and be vigilant against risks in the overseas market during the May Day holiday [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macro: Similar to copper, positive policy signals from domestic important meetings and reduced US tariff negatives have cooled market risk aversion. Attention should be paid to negotiation progress [6]. - Fundamentals: Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is at a high level, the start - up of downstream aluminum processing enterprises is stable, social inventories are in a seasonal destocking cycle, and aluminum product exports have declined significantly. Attention should be paid to domestic demand support [6]. - Overall Logic: The negative impact of US tariff increases has gradually been released. There are no major contradictions in the aluminum fundamentals. This week, it may continue to fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the gap position above, and be vigilant against risks in the overseas market during the May Day holiday [6]. Alumina - Macro: Similar to copper and electrolytic aluminum, positive policy signals from domestic important meetings and reduced US tariff negatives have cooled market risk aversion. Attention should be paid to negotiation progress [8]. - Fundamentals: As of last Thursday, the national alumina operating capacity was 83.62 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 740,000 tons. Due to recent concentrated maintenance and production cuts, the alumina operating capacity has been lower than the theoretical demand for electrolytic aluminum production for several consecutive weeks, and the spot supply of alumina has tightened [8]. - Overall Logic: The spot price of alumina has stopped falling recently, but the medium - term supply - demand fundamentals are still in surplus. A bearish outlook should be maintained in the medium term [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Copper Market**: The average price of copper in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market was 78,280 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1,880 yuan/ton. The closing prices of various copper futures contracts also showed increases. LME copper prices and inventories also had corresponding changes [15]. - **Aluminum Market**: The average price of aluminum in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market was 20,100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 210 yuan/ton. The closing prices of various aluminum futures contracts increased, and LME aluminum inventories increased [15]. - **Alumina Market**: The alumina spot price index was 2,897 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan/ton. The average prices of alumina in different regions also had small increases [15]. - **Weekly News**: In the first quarter, 11,906 large - scale non - ferrous metal industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of 91.77 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 40.7%. The Antamina copper mine in Peru is gradually resuming operations after an accident. The aluminum industry companies generally had good performance in 2024 and the first quarter of 2025. The Shanghai Futures Exchange is soliciting opinions on the futures contracts, option contracts, and business rules of cast aluminum alloy [17]. 3.2 Macro Analysis On April 25, 2025, the Politburo meeting proposed new measures in central government leverage, consumption, infrastructure, real estate, and employment, aiming to promote economic development [19]. 3.3 Copper Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The processing fee TC continued to decline. The spread between refined and scrap copper, import profit, and other indicators also showed corresponding trends [25]. - **Futures Market**: The net long positions in COMEX copper increased [28]. - **Overseas Market**: The US dollar index rebounded, which had an impact on LME copper prices, spreads, and inventories [32]. - **Inventories**: As of April 24, the social copper inventory in major regions across the country dropped to 181,700 tons, achieving eight consecutive weeks of inventory reduction. The operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises is expected to rise to 81.81% this week [36]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis - **Domestic Market**: The spot premium of electrolytic aluminum converged. The spreads between different aluminum products and the import profit also showed corresponding changes [42]. - **Foreign Market**: The US dollar index rebounded, affecting LME aluminum prices, spreads, and net positions of different institutions [44]. - **Weekly Inventories**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, aluminum rod, and the inventories in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME all showed different trends [46]. - **Downstream Start - up**: As of April 24, the overall start - up rate of the domestic aluminum downstream processing industry increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%. Different sub - industries had different performance, and the start - up rate is expected to decline slightly this week [48]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of electrolytic aluminum were affected by the prices of alumina, pre - baked anodes, and power coal [53]. 3.5 Alumina Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The domestic alumina spot price has stopped falling. The prices of alumina in different regions and related raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda also showed corresponding trends [56]. - **Futures Market**: The inventory of alumina futures remained at a high level. The basis and the relationship between alumina futures prices and other related futures prices also had corresponding changes [59]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, the operating capacity of alumina increased. On the demand side, the theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased slightly [62]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost pressure on alumina enterprises is relatively high. As of April 24, the industry cost was 3,337.48 yuan/ton, and the industry profit was - 445.73 yuan/ton [65].

研究院 新能源&有色组 021-60827969 fengfan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03036024 投资咨询号：Z0014660 联系人 研究员 王育武 021-60827969 wangyuwu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114162 陈思捷 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 021-60827968 期货研究报告|铜周报 2025-04-27 师橙 021-60828513 shicheng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3046665 投资咨询号：Z0014806 封帆 市场存在挺价情绪 铜价预计震荡偏强 市场要闻与重要数据 矿端方面，据 Mysteel 讯，4 月 25 日当周，本周国内矿现货交易氛围保持平稳，市场延 续供需偏紧态势。尽管现货加工费出现显著下滑（可能受 Antamina 矿区生产事故引发 的供应担忧情绪升温影响），但作价比例波动相对有限，主流议价区间仍维持在 92-95% 水平，卖方在价格谈判中持续掌握主动权，作价体系保持高位震荡。周内现货 TC 价格 继续下降至-42.52 美元/吨。 冶炼及进口方面，4 月 25 日当周，市场国产资源 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices have rebounded mainly due to the easing of tariff attitudes and strong support from the spot end, but the sustainability of consumption remains to be observed. Near the May Day holiday, it is recommended to wait and see [2][3][7]. - Alumina prices have continued to decline, leading to an expansion of industry losses. The short - term market situation has alleviated the oversupply pattern, but the price is still under pressure. It is recommended to wait for the price to rebound and then short [10][14][15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is necessary to pay attention to changes in tariff policies and domestic demand - boosting policies [19][23][24]. - Zinc prices may rebound in the short term due to overseas zinc mine shutdown news, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [27][30][31]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term range, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [34][35][37]. - Nickel prices follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the short term and should be shorted on rebounds in the medium term [42][44][45]. - Stainless steel prices follow nickel prices and macro - changes in the short term and may decline in the medium term if the global economy enters a recession [47][49][50]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for options [53][58][59]. - Industrial silicon prices are under pressure due to high inventory. Even if there is a rebound, it is an opportunity to short [61][64][65]. - Polysilicon 2506 contract will follow the delivery logic, and the price will be repaired upwards. It is recommended to go long on PS2506 and short on PS2511 for arbitrage [66][68][69]. - Lithium carbonate prices are recommended to be shorted on rebounds, hold put ratio options, and wait and see for arbitrage [70][72][75]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Copper 2505 contract closed at 77,600 yuan, a decrease of 0.5%. The Shanghai Copper Index increased its positions by 4,180 lots to 534,100 lots. The spot copper price fluctuated downward, and the downstream demand for receiving goods weakened [2]. - **Important Information**: As of April 24, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 14,800 tons to 181,700 tons compared with Monday, and decreased by 51,700 tons compared with last Thursday. Canadian miner Teck Resources' copper sales increased in Q1, and Anglo American's copper production decreased in Q1, but both maintained their annual production guidance [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of copper ore is tight, processing fees are declining, and the price of sulfuric acid is falling. The supply of scrap copper has increased after the price rebound, and the downstream consumption has weakened, but the inventory is low, and there is restocking demand before May Day [3][6]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [7][12]. Alumina - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Alumina 2505 contract increased by 35 yuan/ton to 2,847 yuan/ton, and the positions decreased by 16,659 lots to 381,200 lots. The spot price increased slightly [9]. - **Related Information**: A large - scale alumina enterprise in Shandong completed the overhaul of a 1 - million - ton production line, and the 2.5 - million - ton old production line will be shut down. As of April 24, the national alumina inventory decreased by 26,000 tons to 3.423 million tons [10][11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in alumina prices has led to an expansion of industry losses. The short - term market situation has alleviated the oversupply pattern, but the price is still under pressure due to factors such as new production capacity and high inventory [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait for the price to rebound and then short for unilateral trading, and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [15][12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract closed at 19,930 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan/ton, and the positions increased by 8,103 lots to 536,500 lots. The spot price increased [18]. - **Related Information**: Trump said he might "significantly reduce" tariffs on China, but there is no actual negotiation. The US 4 - month Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly expanded, and the aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories decreased [19][22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The weighted starting rate of aluminum processing has continued to decline, but the inventory is low. The import of aluminum ingots has increased, and the annual supply - demand is expected to be in surplus [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [24]. Zinc - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Zinc 2506 increased by 0.78% to 22,590 yuan/ton, and the positions of the Shanghai Zinc Index decreased by 4,124 lots to 231,400 lots. The spot price in Shanghai increased, but the downstream procurement was weak [26]. - **Related Information**: As of April 24, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased by 14,200 tons to 85,800 tons. Boliden's zinc concentrate production in Q1 increased, and Newmont's decreased [27][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas zinc mines have shut down, which may drive zinc prices to rebound. In April - May, domestic smelters have both maintenance and production increases, and the consumption is about to enter the off - season [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Zinc prices may rebound in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [31]. Lead - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Lead 2506 increased by 0.41% to 16,940 yuan/ton, and the positions of the Shanghai Lead Index decreased by 1,218 lots to 72,200 lots. The spot price increased slightly, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [33]. - **Related Information**: A regenerated lead smelter in the northwest shut down due to equipment failure, and a smelter in the south began lead - zinc smelting maintenance [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The waste battery recycling is weak, the regenerated lead smelting is in a loss state, and the lead - acid battery enterprises will stock up before the holiday, which will support the lead price [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term range. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [37]. Nickel - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Nickel NI2506 decreased by 130 to 125,770 yuan/ton, and the index positions increased by 3,012 lots. The spot premium decreased, and the sulfuric acid nickel price increased [39]. - **Related Information**: The global public debt is expected to exceed the level during the COVID - 19 period. Indonesia's "Titan Project" will continue, and Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt postponed the commissioning of its nickel smelting project [40][41]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - sentiment fluctuates, the supply of raw materials is gradually abundant, and the medium - term supply - demand is turning to be loose [42][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds in the medium term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [45]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: On April 24, the main SS2506 contract increased by 15 to 12,780 yuan/ton, and the index positions decreased by 2,661 lots. The spot price of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel is given [47]. - **Related Information**: As of April 24, the national mainstream stainless steel social inventory decreased by 0.78% week - on - week, mainly the 300 - series resources were digested [48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The prices of NPI and chrome ore have stopped rising, the demand is unclear, and the inventory digestion is slow [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow macro - fluctuations in the short term and decline in the medium term. Wait and see for arbitrage [50][51]. Tin - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Tin 2505 contract closed at 259,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 920 yuan/ton or 0.36%. The spot price increased, but the actual transaction was limited [53][55]. - **Related Information**: The Wabang industrial and mineral management bureau held a meeting on the resumption of production in the Manxiang mine, and the cost of low - altitude mines and small and medium - sized concentrators may increase. Elementos released the feasibility study of its Oropesa tin project [56][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US Treasury Secretary's statement released a signal of trade war easing, but the market expectation is still volatile. The short - term tin ore supply is tight, but the annual supply - demand tightness is alleviated [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term. Wait and see for options [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract weakened on April 24, closing at 8,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.11%. The spot price of some grades decreased [61]. - **Related Information**: Henan Rongwang New Materials plans to build a 1 - million - ton regenerated industrial silicon project [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory of industrial silicon is high, the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. Even if there is a rebound, it is an opportunity to short [64]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds. Wait and see for options. Participate in the reverse arbitrage of Si2511 and Si2512 [65]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: On April 24, the polysilicon futures main contract rebounded, closing at 39,375 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.26%. The spot price decreased [66]. - **Related Information**: From January to March 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 30.5% year - on - year [67]. - **Logic Analysis**: The prices of components, silicon wafers, and batteries have decreased, and the industry is pessimistic about demand. The 2506 contract will follow the delivery logic [68]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 2506 contract price will be repaired upwards. Go long on PS2506 and short on PS2511 for arbitrage [69]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: On April 24, the main 2507 contract increased by 40 to 68,300 yuan/ton, and the index positions decreased by 1,200 lots. The spot price decreased [70]. - **Related Information**: LG Energy Solution withdrew from an Indonesian project, and a new energy technology company was established. Jilin Province introduced consumption - boosting policies [71]. - **Logic Analysis**: Multiple factors led to a short - term price rebound, but the industrial logic is still bearish. The supply may increase in May, and the price may be under pressure [72]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds, wait and see for arbitrage, and hold put ratio options [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's tariff policies have a significant impact on the global financial market and有色金属 prices. Short - term price fluctuations are intense, and the medium - term supply - demand fundamentals of various metals are still the main factors affecting prices [3][18][37] - For different metals, the report provides corresponding trading strategies based on their supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and policy impacts [3][10][23] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2504 contract closed at 75,400 yuan, up 4.23%, and the Shanghai Copper Index increased its position by 3,919 lots to 543,300 lots. The spot premium decreased [2] - **Important Information**: As of April 10, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased significantly. It is expected that the supply will be tight next week, and the demand increase will be limited, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline [2] - **Logic Analysis**: Trump's tariff suspension announcement led to a short - term rebound in LME copper. The fundamentals show a back structure, and the impact of the trade war on orders may appear after April. It is recommended to short on rebounds [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions and wait and see for arbitrage [3] Alumina - **Market Review**: The Alumina 2505 contract rose 35 yuan/ton to 2,790 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 20,444 lots to 392,500 lots. The spot price decreased in most regions [5] - **Related Information**: Multiple alumina plants are undergoing maintenance, and new production lines are put into operation. The national alumina inventory increased, and the price of imported bauxite decreased [6][7] - **Logic Analysis**: Although the short - term supply - demand surplus situation is alleviated, it is difficult to change in the medium - term. It is recommended to short after the rebound [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Short the price, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy put options [10][11] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2505 contract closed at 19,805 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 19,603 lots to 509,800 lots. The spot price increased [13] - **Related Information**: Trump adjusted the tariff policy, and China counter - imposed tariffs. The US 10 - year Treasury yield soared. The domestic aluminum inventory decreased, and the CPI and PPI data were released [14][16] - **Trading Logic**: Trump's tariff suspension led to a market rebound. The tariff may affect aluminum exports, and the domestic second - quarter demand and inventory will support the basis and month - to - month spread [18] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the short - term due to macro - uncertainty, expect the AL05 - 08 contract spread to widen, and wait and see for options [23] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2505 rose 2.92% to 22,705 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Zinc Index decreased by 17,515 lots to 208,600 lots. The downstream procurement was cautious [21] - **Related Information**: As of April 10, the domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased, and the spot trading improved [22] - **Logic Analysis**: In April, the domestic zinc concentrate supply is still loose, and the smelting plant is profitable. The consumption in April is expected to be boosted [25] - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price runs strongly in the short - term and can be shorted on highs in the long - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [26] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2505 rose 1.97% to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Lead Index decreased by 7,357 lots to 81,800 lots. The spot price increased, and the supply and demand were weak [28] - **Related Information**: As of April 10, the domestic lead ingot inventory decreased [29] - **Logic Analysis**: In April, the supply of primary lead may decrease due to maintenance, and the raw materials of secondary lead smelters are in short supply. The consumption is weak, and attention should be paid to imports [30] - **Trading Strategy**: The lead price may rebound in the short - term, and there is a risk of further decline. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [31][33] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2505 fell 2,690 to 121,600 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 7,287 lots. The spot premium decreased [35] - **Related Information**: The EU announced counter - measures against US tariffs, and the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts is cautious [36] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term raw materials are tight, and the spot premium is strong. The medium - term supply may be in surplus, and it is recommended to short after the rebound [37] - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is weak, wait and see for arbitrage and options [38][39][40] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2505 contract fell 35 to 12,675 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased by 734 lots. The spot price range is 12,700 - 13,200 yuan/ton for cold - rolled and 12,700 - 12,800 yuan/ton for hot - rolled [43] - **Related Information**: The EU may impose import restrictions on stainless steel [44] - **Logic Analysis**: The nickel price is weak, and the stainless steel demand is poor. It is expected to be weak in the short - term [45] - **Trading Strategy**: The price fluctuates weakly, and pay attention to domestic stimulus policies. Wait and see for arbitrage [46][47] Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Tin 2505 contract closed at 257,200 yuan/ton, down 2,220 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 392 lots to 77,660 lots. The spot price decreased [49] - **Related Information**: The Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) is resuming production, and Indonesia may increase the mining royalty rate. The Myanmar earthquake affects the resumption of production [50][52][53] - **Logic Analysis**: The resumption of production in Congo (Kinshasa) affects the price, and the supply in Indonesia and Myanmar is uncertain. The downward space of the tin price may be limited [54] - **Trading Strategy**: The supply contradiction is weakened, and the macro - sentiment improves. Be cautious in operation and wait and see for options [55][56] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract opened slightly higher and fluctuated narrowly, closing at 9,555 yuan/ton. The spot price of some grades decreased [58] - **Related Information**: Trump suspended tariffs on some countries, and a 100,000 - ton industrial silicon project was put into operation [59] - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory is high, and the price is difficult to reverse. The cost decreases, and the short - term price may rebound [60] - **Trading Strategy**: Operate within the range, wait and see for options, and participate in the reverse arbitrage of Si2511 and Si2512 [61] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract opened high and closed low, closing at 42,190 yuan/ton, down 1.01%. The spot price of some enterprises decreased [62] - **Related Information**: Trump suspended tariffs on some countries [63][64] - **Logic Analysis**: In April, the polysilicon industry will reduce inventory. There are risks of insufficient warehouse receipts and falling spot prices. Adjust the trading strategy [65] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long in the short - term and avoid short - selling. Hold the positive arbitrage of PS2506 and PS2511, and hold the reverse arbitrage of PS2511 and PS2512 [66] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2505 contract rose 1,060 to 70,540 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased by 4,973 lots. The spot price increased [67] - **Related Information**: A photovoltaic project was signed [68] - **Logic Analysis**: The trade war may affect lithium battery exports. The supply is expected to increase after May, and the price may fluctuate weakly [69][71] - **Trading Strategy**: Close short positions appropriately below 70,000, enter the market again on rebounds, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [72]

华源证券近日发布有色金属大宗金属周报：供给端扰动频发，铜价高位运行。 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风 险自担。 铜：供给端扰动频发，铜价高位运行。本周美铜/伦铜/沪铜分别上涨 0.08%/-0.45%/-0.20%，本周铜价在供给端扰动下冲高回落。供给端，据smm，嘉能可暂停智 利Altonorte冶炼厂运营，并启动不可抗力条款，Altonorte工厂的年产铜约35万吨，受此催化 影响，沪铜一度突破8.3万元/吨。南方铜业旗下SPCC-ILO铜冶炼厂在短暂停产一天后，已快 速恢复至满产状态，铜价回落。需求端，高铜价短期压制下游开工，库存去化，本周铜杆开 工率64.06%，环比降低5.87pct，smm电解铜社会库存33.45万吨，环比降低3.44%，沪铜库存 23.53万吨，环比降低8.21%。旺季逐步来临，铜需求端有支撑，在加工费持续低迷背景下， 若冶炼厂减产现象持续扩散，铜矿端短缺或逐步向金属端传导，铜价有望迎来上行周期，另 一方面重点关注美国对铜加征关税的落地情况。建议关注：紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、金诚信、 铜陵有色。 铝：库存去化叠加下游需求回升，支撑铝价高位 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - Domestic port copper concentrate inventory has rapidly decreased, indicating tightening supply and a bullish outlook for copper prices [1]. - As of March 14, 2025, SHFE copper price is 80,500 RMB/ton, up 2.8% week-on-week, while LME copper price is 9,793 USD/ton, up 2.0% week-on-week [1][15]. - The report anticipates continued upward movement in copper prices in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 3% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory fell by 9% [2]. - As of March 14, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stands at 575,000 tons, down 5.8% week-on-week [2]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory as of March 3, 2025, totaled 613,000 tons, a decrease of 1.6% week-on-week [2]. Supply - The TC spot price as of March 14 is -15.9 USD/pound, continuing to set historical lows [3]. - In February 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.0582 million tons, up 4.4% month-on-month and 11.4% year-on-year [3]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper is 2,330 RMB/ton, an increase of 72 RMB/ton week-on-week [2][48]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate increased by 4.6 percentage points week-on-week, reaching 77.21% [3]. - In January 2025, household air conditioner production decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, while sales increased by 8.7% [3]. - The operating rate for brass rods was 40.4% in February 2025, down 1.3 percentage points month-on-month but up 13.7 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 38% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions rose by 43% [4]. - As of March 14, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions reached 230,000 lots, a 38.1% increase week-on-week [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, with a focus on Minmetals Resources [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - Domestic port copper concentrate inventory has rapidly decreased, indicating tightening supply and a bullish outlook for copper prices [1][4]. - As of March 14, 2025, SHFE copper price is 80,500 RMB/ton, up 2.8% week-on-week, while LME copper price is 9,793 USD/ton, up 2.0% week-on-week [1][15]. - The report anticipates continued upward movement in copper prices in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 3% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory fell by 9% [2]. - As of March 14, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stands at 575,000 tons, down 5.8% week-on-week [2]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory as of March 3, 2025, totaled 613,000 tons, a decrease of 1.6% week-on-week [2]. Supply - The TC spot price as of March 14, 2025, is -15.9 USD/pound, continuing to set historical lows [3]. - In February 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.0582 million tons, up 4.4% month-on-month and 11.4% year-on-year [3]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper is 2,330 RMB/ton, an increase of 72 RMB/ton week-on-week [2][48]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate increased by 4.6 percentage points week-on-week, reaching 77.21% [3][63]. - In January 2025, household air conditioner production decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, while sales increased by 8.7% [3][79]. - The operating rate for brass rods, primarily used in construction, was 40.4% in February 2025, down 1.3 percentage points month-on-month but up 13.7 percentage points year-on-year [3][63]. Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 38% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions rose by 43% [4][29]. - As of March 14, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions reached 230,000 lots, a significant increase from the previous week [4][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Minmetals Resources [4].

Group 1: Banking Sector Insights - The quantitative backtest results indicate that undervalued strategies contribute to excess returns while effectively reducing drawdowns [1] - High ROE and the strategy based on "provision coverage ratio - non-performing loan ratio - attention ratio" show superior performance, while short-term improvement strategies underperform [1] - The combined strategy of high ROE/PB and high "provision coverage ratio - non-performing loan ratio - attention ratio" × dividend yield has achieved over 300% cumulative excess returns since 2011, highlighting the importance of quality and value in bank stock investments [1] Group 2: Dividend Strategy Analysis - Current dividend strategies exhibit significant bottom characteristics, with a rare "negative return - high volatility" feature over the past three months, indicating potential for recovery [2] - The 40-day excess return of dividends is nearly -10% below the annual average, suggesting a high probability of excess return reversion based on historical patterns [2] - The dividend ETF is in a net subscription state with reduced trading volume, typically corresponding to a bottom phase for the strategy [2] Group 3: Copper Industry Outlook - The expectation of increased tariffs on imported copper in the U.S. is likely to push copper prices back to peak levels, with COMEX copper prices reaching new highs compared to LME prices [3] - The tariff impact on domestic demand in China is expected to be limited, but it may restrict imports of refined copper and scrap copper [3] - Positive policy developments and market dynamics are expected to accelerate the convergence of trading and fundamental factors, leading to a bullish outlook for copper prices [3] Group 4: Quantitative Strategy Improvements - The traditional asset rotation framework has been improved to address issues such as low flexibility and fixed scoring standards, enhancing the model's comprehensiveness and adaptability [4] - The industry rotation model constructed from 26 indicators achieved a 32% annualized absolute return during the backtest period from 2017 to January 2025, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [5] Group 5: U.S. Stock Market Strategy - U.S. stock markets are experiencing downward pressure due to uncertainties surrounding Trump's policies and tariffs, with major indices giving back all gains since the Fed's rate cuts in September 2023 [7] - Economic indicators from the U.S. have underperformed expectations, and trade tensions may further weaken the economic fundamentals, leading to capital rotation out of U.S. equities [7] - The outlook for U.S. stocks is expected to remain volatile until late March or early April, with recommendations to focus on healthcare, consumer services, traditional telecommunications, and utilities sectors [7] Group 6: Bond Market Insights - The demand for bond ETFs is increasing due to heightened market volatility, offering investors a more convenient and diversified investment tool compared to traditional bond allocations [8] - Local government bond ETFs are noted for their potential yield enhancement and better drawdown control compared to other bond ETF types [8] Group 7: Magnesium Alloy Market Potential - The demand for magnesium alloys in China is expected to grow due to rich domestic magnesium production and the lightweighting needs in automotive and robotics sectors [10] - The semi-solid magnesium alloy forming technology is anticipated to open new growth avenues for leading companies in the industry [10] Group 8: Dairy Industry Forecast - The potential implementation of child-rearing subsidies by 2025 may improve birth rates, positively impacting the demand for infant formula and cheese products [11] - The expected increase in the population of children aged 0-6 years is likely to boost the market outlook for children's cheese products [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][12] Core Viewpoints - Recent changes in copper processing material output align with terminal industry trends, with high demand in the power electronics, new energy vehicles, and air conditioning sectors driving growth in copper strips, foils, and pipes. Conversely, products related to real estate and construction, such as brass rods and brass strips, have seen stagnant or declining output [3][12] - Looking ahead to 2025, investment in the power sector is expected to maintain high growth, while home appliances will continue to benefit from national subsidies. Although growth in solar energy and new energy vehicles may slow, the drag from the real estate and construction sector is expected to lessen, indicating resilient copper demand overall [3][12] - With limited growth in copper supply, the copper market is expected to remain in a tight balance, keeping copper prices at elevated levels. It is recommended to continue monitoring copper mining stocks that benefit from high copper prices, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, Wanguo Resources, Western Mining, and China Nonferrous Mining [3][12] Summary by Sections Copper Processing Material Output - In 2024, China's copper processing material output is projected to increase by 1.9% year-on-year, reaching 21.25 million tons. The output growth is primarily driven by copper foils and pipes, which correspond to high demand in lithium battery foils and air conditioning pipes [4][12] - From 2020 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of copper processing material output is maintained at 3%, with copper foil showing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22%, significantly outpacing other categories [4][12] Copper Foil - The growth in copper foil output is mainly attributed to lithium battery copper foils, which saw a 143% increase in 2024 compared to 2021. However, this growth rate is lower than the 257% increase in domestic power battery output during the same period, primarily due to the trend of thinner lithium battery copper foils [7][12] Copper Strip - The production of purple copper strips has surpassed that of brass strips since 2022, with purple copper strips accounting for 45% of the total copper strip output in 2024. This shift is driven by increased demand in the power, electronics, and communications sectors [8][12] Copper Pipe - In 2024, the total output of copper pipes is expected to be 2.36 million tons, with purple copper pipes making up 2.24 million tons. The growth in copper pipe output is largely driven by the demand for purple inner threaded pipes, which have higher heat exchange efficiency due to their larger contact area [10][12]