Macro Data Commentary - The report highlights the outstanding performance of small and mid-cap funds, with the average return of fund heavyweights at 8.94%, significantly outperforming the average return of the CSI 800 component stocks at 1.66% [1][15] - In the second quarter, 30 out of 31 industries saw fund heavyweights outperform their benchmark industry indices, with an excess return of 5.91% over the industry average [1][16] Timing Selection Ability - The report indicates that the asset allocation effects of various funds were not ideal, with equity funds reducing their average stock positions by 0.24 percentage points and mixed funds by 1.21 percentage points compared to the previous period [2][20] - The overall performance of the bond market was also subpar, with the total wealth index of bonds rising by only 1.53% while bond funds reduced their holdings by 0.12% [2][20] Risk Management Ability - The risk exchange efficiency of bond funds remained stable, with slight declines in both returns and volatility for equity and mixed funds [2][22] - The report notes that despite a recovery in the market since September, equity assets are still in a downward trend over a longer time frame [2][22] Comprehensive Management Ability - The report states that the Shanghai Securities comprehensive management ability index integrates performance across security selection, timing selection, and risk management [5][23] - Notable fund managers with outstanding performance include Jin Xin, Da Cheng, and Yuan Xin Yong Feng in the active management of equity funds, and Yi Fang Da, Tian Hong, and Bo Shi in pure bond funds [5][23] Fund Rating Performance Tracking - The report tracks the performance of rated funds, indicating that five-star funds maintain a 60% probability of being in the top 40% of their peers within 6 months to 1 year after rating [3][29] - Since 2015, the three-year return of five-star ordinary stock fund portfolios reached 216.93%, compared to only 38.82% for the CSI All Index [3][29]

行业风格配置建议及指数基金组合：增配中盘成长，聚焦 TMT 和金融板块 风险提示 海外降息进程不及预期、国内政策及经济复苏不及预期等带来的股票市场大幅波动风险；策略模型回测效果、基金历 史业绩不代表未来收益；基金相关信息及数据仅作为基金研究使用，不作为募集材料或者宣传材料。 量化行业轮动模型 8 月优选反内卷主线和 TMT、金融板块，具体包括半导体、汽车、光伏设备、银行、煤炭、商社、 非银金融、电子、计算机、纺织服饰。随着中报披露期的到来，基本面因子影响加深，前期情绪面主导的主题型行情 能否持续仍在博弈之中，预期面与基本面是共振还是切换仍有待观测，市场整体动量效应减弱。建议重点关注情绪和 基本面共振的半导体、电子行业和金融板块。从得分环比变化来看，银行、非银金融等得分环比提升明显，是为数不 多在资金面、预期面呈现较高一致性的行业，两类因子共振推动行业得分上行。伴随着反内卷主线的高质量发展，虽 然反内卷主线相关的光伏设备、煤炭等行业绝对得分仍较高，但其环比得分却有所下滑。本期行业 ETF 组合如下： | 512480.OF | 国联安中证全指半导体ETF | 512800.OF | 华宝中证银行ETF | 51 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - Trump may soon announce the next Fed Chair. If the Fed cuts interest rates, it will be beneficial for A-shares. However, the external market environment is highly uncertain due to Trump's threats regarding tariffs and energy sanctions. A-shares have shown strong index performance in the past two days but lack trading volume. In the short term, it is necessary to monitor whether the trading volume will recover and the activity of the technology sector to determine if the market will oscillate and break through the 3,674-point mark. In the long term, the market is expected to move upward with oscillations. The report is optimistic about the technology sector and suggests paying attention to its performance [1][2][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market View 1.1 Overseas Overnight - US service industry data indicates resilience, with the July ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 50.1 (below the expected 51.5 but above the previous value of 50.8) and the July S&P Global services PMI at 55.7 (above both the expected and previous values of 55.2). - Trump stated that the next Fed Chair candidates have been narrowed down to four, and an announcement may be made soon. The US will announce tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports next week, with the maximum pharmaceutical tariff reaching 250%. Trump also threatened to significantly increase tariffs on India within 24 hours and impose a 35% tariff on the EU if it fails to fulfill its investment obligations to the US. These factors have dampened market risk appetite, leading to a weaker US dollar index, a decline in short-term US Treasury yields and an increase in long-term yields, a rise in gold prices, a collective decline in US stock indices, a decline in the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, and a slight depreciation of the offshore RMB exchange rate. However, the potential for Fed rate cuts is seen as a positive for A-shares [1][4]. 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Tuesday, the market continued its rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.96%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.59%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.39%. The strength of the Shanghai Composite Index was mainly due to the contribution of the large financial sector. Although more stocks rose than fell, the market sentiment was slightly weaker than on Monday. All primary sectors rose, with banks, steel, media, communications, and non-bank finance leading the gains, while pharmaceutical biology, computer, and building materials had the smallest increases. A total of 3,901 stocks rose, and 1,325 stocks fell. The central bank and six other departments jointly issued a document to promote financial support for new industrialization, which is essentially a financial supply-side reform aimed at breaking through bottlenecks through precise capital allocation [2][5]. 1.3 Important Information - **Tariffs**: Trump will announce tariffs on pharmaceuticals and chips in the next week, with the maximum pharmaceutical tariff reaching 250%. He will significantly increase tariffs on India within 24 hours and impose a 35% tariff on the EU if it fails to fulfill its investment obligations to the US. The US trade deficit in June was -$60.2 billion, the smallest since September 2023 [6]. - **Political News**: Trump believes that Vance is the most likely candidate for the next president, and Secretary of State Rubio would be a helpful ally. Trump may soon announce a new Fed Chair, with four candidates, and Besent hopes to remain in the Treasury. Trump will decide whether to impose sanctions on countries purchasing Russian energy after a meeting on Wednesday. The State Council General Office issued an opinion on gradually implementing free pre-school education, starting from the fall semester of 2025, waiving tuition fees for children in the first year of public kindergartens. The China Securities Regulatory Commission is strengthening constraints on third parties involved in capital market fraud. The central bank and six other departments are guiding banks to provide medium- and long-term financing for key manufacturing industrial chains such as integrated circuits and industrial mother machines. The National Health Commission and other departments jointly issued an implementation plan for a healthy environment promotion action [6][7][8]. 1.4 Today's Strategy - Monitor the recovery of trading volume and the activity of the technology sector in the short term to determine if the market will oscillate and break through the 3,674-point mark. In the long term, the market is expected to move upward with oscillations. The report is optimistic about the technology sector and suggests paying attention to its performance [10]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various stock index futures contracts, including the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. It also presents charts showing the basis, inter - contract spreads, and trading volume and open interest trends of these futures contracts [12][13]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - The report shows the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual returns, trading volumes, and valuation quantiles of major stock indices such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others. It also analyzes the impact of market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the performance of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices. Additionally, it provides valuation and trading volume data for various industries [37][38][39]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report includes charts showing central bank open - market operations (in billion yuan) and the Shibor interest rate levels [50].

上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到 先得！ Choice 数据显示，截至 8 月 5 日， A 股 两 融 余 额 报 20002.59 亿 元 ， 融 资 余 额 报 19863.11 亿元，均创逾十年新高。 A股两融余额上一次超过2万亿元，还是2015年7月1日， 当 日 A股两融余额报20352.90亿元。 今年以来， A 股两融余额增加 1356.76 亿元，融资余额增加 1321.66 亿元，两融余额的增 加部分主要来自于融资余额的增加。 从行业情况来看，申万一级 31 个行业中， 电子、非银金融、计算机行业两融余额居前，分 别为 2290.97 亿元、 1632.18 亿元、 1542.73 亿元 ，医药生物、电力设备、机械设备、 汽车行业两融余额均超 1000 亿元。 | 行业 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ↓ 两融余额(万元) | 融资余额(万元) | 融资余量(万股) | 融券余额(万元) | | SW电子 | 22,909,708,66 | 22,822,003.18 | ...

Policy Developments - The State Council of China has issued an opinion to gradually implement free preschool education, starting from the fall semester of 2025, exempting public kindergarten fees for the last year of preschool education[2] - This policy is seen as a continuation of previous investments in child-rearing, with a subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child per year for children under three years old, aimed at improving short-term demand and long-term economic sustainability[2] Economic Insights - President Trump criticized the Federal Reserve for delaying interest rate cuts, indicating potential changes in leadership at the Fed, which could impact the independence of the institution and global financial markets[3] - The brain-computer interface market in China reached 3.2 billion yuan in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 18.8%, expected to exceed 3.8 billion yuan in 2025 and 5.5 billion yuan by 2027, indicating a robust growth trajectory[4] Market Performance - The global diesel generator market was valued at $17.864 billion in 2024, projected to grow to $25.509 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.02%[5] - The A-share market has a total market capitalization of 96.03 trillion yuan, with a year-to-date increase of 1.017 trillion yuan, and a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 20.47x[17] Industry Trends - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a plan for the digital transformation of the machinery industry from 2025 to 2030, aiming for 50% of enterprises to reach a maturity level of two or above in intelligent manufacturing by 2027[5] - The photovoltaic industry is seeing a push against unfair competition, which is expected to improve the supply-demand dynamics within the sector[6] Financial Metrics - The latest 10-year government bond yield is 1.703%, with a change of -0.89 basis points, while the DR007 rate is at 1.445%, down by 0.73 basis points[7] - The USDCNH exchange rate is currently at 7.1886, reflecting a slight increase of 0.07%[9]

人民财讯8月5日电，招商证券研报表示，从短期角度，8月重点关注五大具备边际改善的赛道：AI应 用、AI硬件、非银金融、国防军工、创新药。从中长期角度，建议以周期为轴，供需为锚。关注新科 技周期下，全社会智能化的进展(大模型的持续迭代、算力基础设施与AI生态的完善、AI商业模式的落 地、以及AI对消费电子、机器人等赋能)，国产替代周期下相关产业链的自主可控(国产大模型、国产AI 应用与算力、国产集成电路产业链)，以及"双碳"周期下碳中和全产业链的降本增效(光伏、风电、储 能、氢能、核电)，电动化智能化大趋势下电动智能汽车渗透率增加。 ...

$\mathbb{E}[\hat{\lambda},\hat{\lambda}]=\mathbb{E}[\hat{\lambda},\hat{\lambda}]$. 核心观点 金融工程日报 市场表现：今日(20250805) 市场全线上涨，规模指数中中证 2000 指数表现 较好，板块指数中上证综指表现较好，风格指数中沪深 300 价值指数表现较 好。行业指数全线上涨，银行、通信、钢铁、非银、房地产行业表现较好， 医药、商贸零售、计算机、有色金属、消费者服务行业表现较差。PEEK 材料、 智能控制器、射频及天线、光纤、智能 IC 卡等概念表现较好，玻璃纤维、 西藏振兴、智谱 AI、熊去氧胆酸、Kimi 等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：今日收盘时有 69 只股票涨停，有 2 只股票跌停。昨日涨停股票 今日收盘收益为 2.94%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为-1.59%。今日封板率 76%，较前日下降 2%，连板率 23%，较前日下降 7%。 市场资金流向：截至 20250804 两融余额为 19913 亿元，其中融资余额 19776 亿元，融券余额 137 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.3%，两融交易占市 场成 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a comprehensive rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.96%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.59%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.39% [7] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 16,160.55 billion, an increase of 976.95 billion compared to the previous trading day [7] Investor Sentiment - A significant portion of retail investors are facing losses, with 99.9% of accounts with less than 10,000 yuan experiencing losses, and 97% of accounts between 10,000 to 100,000 yuan also in the red [1][2] - In contrast, 90% of accounts with over 1 million yuan reported profits, indicating a disparity in performance among different account sizes [2] Sector Performance - The communication sector saw the largest net inflow of funds, followed by automotive, banking, electronics, and machinery sectors [20] - The PEEK materials sector showed strong performance, with several stocks reaching the daily limit, driven by increased interest in lightweight materials for robotics [7] Financing Trends - The financing balance in the market has reached 19,713 billion, surpassing the levels seen during the 2015 market peak, indicating a potential for further growth [3] - The overall market volume remains relatively low at 1.6 trillion, suggesting that while there is upward momentum, the market may lack sufficient strength for sustained growth [5] Key Developments - The upcoming launch of Apple's iPhone 17 series, which is expected to fully transition to eSIM technology, is anticipated to impact related stocks positively [6] - The Chinese government has initiated several policies to support new industrialization, including financial support for key technology sectors such as integrated circuits and advanced materials [13] Institutional Activity - Institutional investors showed a net inflow of 138.16 billion, with notable purchases in the communication and automotive sectors [20] - The top individual stocks attracting institutional interest included Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, Dongxin Peace, and Changcheng Military Industry [20] Valuation Insights - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios in various sectors indicate that some, like agriculture and non-bank financials, are at historically low levels, suggesting potential investment opportunities [32]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant rise in July, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both increasing by over 2.8%, and the Hang Seng Stock Connect rising by 4.7% [1] - There has been a resonance inflow of both domestic and foreign capital into the Hong Kong stock market this year, leading to a sustained liquidity environment [1] - According to Guosen Securities, Hong Kong stocks remain in a reasonable valuation range compared to A-shares, with a focus on five key investment directions: undervalued internet and AI leaders, innovative pharmaceuticals, resources and commodities benefiting from anti-involution, strong fundamentals in new consumption, and improving performance in non-bank financial institutions [1][2] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Innovative Pharmaceutical ETF (513120) has seen a year-to-date return exceeding 100% as of July 29, with its latest scale surpassing 16 billion yuan, making it the largest innovative pharmaceutical ETF in the market [2] - The Hang Seng Consumption ETF (159699) tracks the Hang Seng Consumption Index, including 50 leading Hong Kong consumer stocks, and offers a balanced distribution that aligns with the consumption trends of Generation Z [2] - The Hong Kong Non-Bank Financial ETF (513750) is the only ETF tracking the Hong Kong non-bank financial index, with significant holdings in major insurance companies and has seen continuous net inflows, reaching a scale of 12.5 billion yuan and a year-to-date return of over 40% [2] Group 3 - Fund professionals believe that the four ETFs covering technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, and non-bank financial sectors provide investors with a convenient tool for a diversified exposure to Hong Kong stock opportunities [3] - Institutional analysis highlights the long-term allocation value of the Hong Kong technology and pharmaceutical sectors, especially with the deepening of anti-involution policies and rising global inflation expectations [3]

2025 年 08 月 05 日 市场进入上涨波段， 企业回收 意愿 图语 -上市公司回购增持月度跟踪（2025年７月） 集中落地,回购增持实 -上市公司回购培 持月度跟踪（2025年６月）》 2025/07/03 申万宏源研究微信服务号 《市场有所回暖, 回购增持随之降温 =市公司回购增持月度跟踪 (2025年5月) 》 2025/06/17 证券分析师 牟璋璋 A0230524100002 mujj@swsresearch.com 陆灏川 A0230520080001 luhc@swsresearch.com 王雪蓉 A0230523070003 wangxr@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 牟璋璋 A0230524100002 mujj@swsresearch.com 联系人 牟蓮蓮 (8621)23297818× mujj@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 2024 年 9 月 24 日，国务院举行新闻发布会，央行行长潘功胜宣布创设两项结构性货币 政策工具,以支持 ...