[Table_Page] 金融工程|量化投资专题 2026 年 1 月 23 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 业绩预告与行业表现呈现分化 量化基本面系列之三 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： （如无特别说明，本文数据均来源于 wind，数据截至 2026/01/23） 2025 年业绩预告披露类型 | 业绩预告类型 | 公司数量 | 占比 | | --- | --- | --- | | 不确定 | 5 | 0.7% | | 扭亏 | 58 | 8.1% | | 略减 | 17 | 2.4% | | 略增 | 45 | 6.3% | | 续亏 | 247 | 34.4% | | 续盈 | 6 | 0.8% | | 预减 | 64 | 8.9% | | 预增 | 180 | 25.1% | | 首亏 | 95 | 13.2% | | 积极 | 289 | 40.3% | 数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心 2025 年业绩预告/快报/正式财报 | | 业绩预告/快报/ | 业绩预告/快报/ | 归母净利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申万一级行业 | ...

公募主动权益基金第一大重仓股有了"新面孔"。 机构最新统计数据显示，截至2025年4季度末，中际旭创代替宁德时代成为主动权益基金（包括主动股 票基金、偏股混合基金、灵活配置基金）第一大重仓股。 同时，主动权益基金第二大至第十大重仓股排序均较上一季度发生变化，如新易盛取代腾讯控股成为基 金第二大重仓股，紫金矿业从第八大重仓股晋级为第五大重仓股，寒武纪-U升为第七大重仓股；而宁 德时代、腾讯控股分别退为第三、第四大重仓股，中芯国际退出了前十大重仓股队列。 另外，主动权益基金在行业配置层面也有调整。据机构统计，2025年4季度，主动权益基金增配较多的 行业包括有色金属、通信、非银、化工、机械；主要减配了电子、医药生物、传媒、计算机、电力设备 等行业。 重仓股排序更迭 截至2026年1月22日，公募基金2025年第4季度报告基本披露完毕，主动权益基金前十大重仓股名单随之 更新。 从持股绝对市值来看，据国信证券经济研究所金融工程组统计，截至2025年4季度末，主动权益基金持 有市值排名前十的个股依次是：中际旭创、新易盛、宁德时代、腾讯控股、紫金矿业、阿里巴巴-W、 寒武纪-U、立讯精密、贵州茅台、东山精密。 主动权益基 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the non-banking financial sector, indicating a strong performance and potential for continued growth in the coming years [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the introduction of multiple regulatory frameworks aimed at strengthening the long-term performance of the non-banking sector, which is expected to enhance the overall stability and growth prospects of the industry [1][39]. - The insurance market is expanding steadily, with significant growth in premium income and investment returns, indicating a robust recovery and potential for further development [7][58]. - The report emphasizes the performance of various non-banking sectors, with insurance leading the growth, followed by diversified finance and securities [22][58]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Dynamics - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) has introduced several new regulations, including adjustments to risk factors for insurance companies and management guidelines for financial leasing companies, aimed at enhancing regulatory efficiency and promoting high-quality development in the non-banking sector [3][39]. - New regulations also include the asset-liability management guidelines for insurance companies and the information disclosure management for asset management products, which are expected to improve transparency and investor protection [40][43]. Industry Dynamics - The non-banking sector has shown varied performance, with the insurance sector achieving a premium income of CNY 5.76 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 7.56% [58]. - The report notes that the A-share market's average daily trading volume reached CNY 10,768 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 53.24%, although there was a slight decline in trading activity towards the end of the year [10][64]. Market Performance - In December 2025, the non-banking index rose by 6.31%, outperforming major indices, with insurance stocks showing the highest gains at 14.59% [19][22]. - The report identifies key ETFs in the non-banking sector, highlighting strong performance in the securities insurance ETFs and financial technology ETFs, which saw significant inflows [13][38]. Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on the valuation recovery logic in the non-banking sector, particularly in ETFs such as the Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Banking ETF and the Financial Technology ETF, which are expected to benefit from the positive market dynamics [13][38]. - The insurance sector's dividend yields are becoming increasingly attractive, with several companies offering yields above 3.5%, indicating a potential investment opportunity for income-focused investors [12].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Zhongji Xuchuang has replaced CATL as the largest holding in actively managed equity funds as of Q4 2025, indicating a shift in market focus and investment strategies [1][3] - The top ten holdings of actively managed equity funds have changed significantly compared to Q3 2025, with Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Semiconductor, and Zijin Mining moving up in rankings, while CATL and Tencent have dropped [3][4] - The total market value of the top ten holdings in actively managed equity funds is reported, with Zhongji Xuchuang at 76.8 billion, Xinyi Semiconductor at 63.8 billion, and CATL at 63 billion [3] Group 2 - Actively managed equity funds have increased their allocation in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and non-bank financials, while reducing exposure to electronics, pharmaceuticals, and media [9][10] - The overall stock position of actively managed equity funds has decreased to 84.4%, reflecting a cautious approach amid changing market conditions [8] - The analysis indicates that the shift in sector allocation is driven by a combination of cyclical recovery, technological optimization, and improved market activity in non-bank financials [9][10]

从仓位角度看，主动偏股型基金25Q4仓位环比下降0.83pct至86.62%，但仍处于仅次于25Q3的历史第二高水平。25Q4主动偏股基金仓位环比下降0.83pct 至86.62%，其中普通股票型下降0.52pct至90.52%，偏股混合型下降0.82pct至88.97%，灵活配置型下降0.90pct至78.59%。 一、主动权益管理规模下降，存量赎回压力仍在出清 2025年四季度，主动权益基金管理规模小幅下降，未能延续三季度规模增长的势头，四季度存量基金的赎回压力仍然较大，是规模回落的主要拖累项。 2025Q4，三类主动偏股基金（普通股票型+偏股混合型+灵活配置型）管理规模下降1898亿元，其中新发主动权益基金规模562亿元，存量基金净赎回 1656亿元，涨跌影响导致规模下降804亿元。 二、配置上，加仓周期、金融地产，减仓科技成长、医药 （一）板块层面，创业板仓位上升，主板、科创板仓位下降 1）创业板的配置比例为24.98%，较2025Q3上升1.24个百分点，创业板超配比例上升，超配比例由8.77%提升至10.47%。 4）北交所的配置比例为0.26%，较2025Q3下降0.05个百分点。 2）科创板的 ...

1.A股市场主力资金净流出41.67亿元 今日A股市场主力资金开盘净流出83.56亿元，尾盘净流入58.37亿元，A股市场全天主力资金净流出41.67亿元。 1月23日，A股市场整体上涨。截至收盘，上证指数报4136.16点，上涨0.33%；深证成指报14439.66点，上涨0.79%；创业板指报3349.5点，上涨0.63%；北 证50指数上涨3.82%。 | | | 沪深两市近五日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 尾盘净流入 超大单净买入 | | | 2026-1-23 | -41.67 | -83.56 | 58. 37 | 119.93 | | 2026-1-22 | -104. 42 | -78. 12 | 17.97 | -9.81 | | 2026-1-21 | 56. 08 | -41.97 | 6. 26 | 154. 57 | | 2026-1-20 | -764. 07 | -221.93 | -61.61 | -471.97 | | 2026-1-19 | -397.98 ...

- In the past two years, broad-based ETFs have experienced significant net outflows, with a cumulative net outflow of 534.63 billion yuan since 2026, including 267.32 billion yuan from CSI 300, 71.58 billion yuan from CSI 1000, 45.67 billion yuan from STAR 50, 49.11 billion yuan from SSE 50, and 33.39 billion yuan from ChiNext Index[3] - Since 2024, there have been four major net inflows of medium- and long-term funds through broad-based ETFs, mainly into CSI 300 (current retained market value of approximately 608.8 billion yuan), CSI 1000 (approximately 163.4 billion yuan), CSI 500 (approximately 137.7 billion yuan), and ChiNext Index (approximately 105.8 billion yuan)[3] - Medium- and long-term funds in Q3 2025 were heavily invested in banks (37% of market value), non-bank financials (19%), food and beverage (5%), construction (4%), and utilities (4%)[3] - The report provides detailed statistics on the net inflows and outflows of major broad-based ETFs, including CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, SSE 50, ChiNext Index, and others, with specific figures for each ETF[5] - The report includes a table estimating the current cost lines for major ETFs, showing the buy and sell cost lines for each round of net inflows and outflows, along with the retained market value and the current index price[7] - The report lists the top holdings of medium- and long-term funds in Q3 2025, including Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Ping An Insurance, Bank of China, and others, with specific market values and percentages[9] - The report notes that the data comes from periodic reports disclosed by listed companies, fund reports, and other sources, and that medium- and long-term funds include entities such as Central Huijin, China Securities Finance, and others[10]

Core Viewpoint - The public fund holdings in 2025 show a significant shift towards technology growth sectors, moving away from traditional consumer and financial sectors [9][10]. Group 1: Changes in Top Holdings - Ningde Times consistently ranked as the top holding throughout 2025, with a market value of 146.8 billion in Q1, 142.7 billion in Q2, 207.1 billion in Q3, and 181.9 billion in Q4 [3]. - Guizhou Moutai, a traditional consumer staple, saw a decline in its ranking and market value, dropping from second place at the beginning of the year to fifth by Q4 [10]. - Tencent Holdings maintained a relatively stable position, fluctuating between second and fourth place [10]. - Notable rises in rankings were observed for Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, both of which entered the top ten in Q3 and continued to rise in Q4, indicating a strong interest in AI-related stocks [10]. Group 2: Changes in Industry Holdings - The electronics sector remained the top industry for public fund holdings across all four quarters of 2025, with investment values increasing from 518.9 billion in Q1 to 774.5 billion in Q4 [6]. - The food and beverage sector declined from second place in Q1 to seventh place by Q4, reflecting a shift in investor preference [12]. - The medical and biological sector, which ranked high in the first three quarters, was overtaken by the electric equipment and communication sectors in Q4 [12]. - The electric equipment sector improved its ranking from fourth to second place by Q4, while the communication sector rose from outside the top ten to third place [12]. - Non-bank financial and banking sectors experienced an overall decline in rankings, while the non-ferrous metals sector entered the top six in Q4 [13].

Core Viewpoint - The public fund holdings in 2025 show a significant shift towards technology growth sectors, moving away from traditional consumer and financial sectors, with Ningde Times consistently ranking as the top heavy stock throughout the year [9][10]. Group 1: Changes in Top Holdings - Ningde Times maintained its position as the top heavy stock across all quarters, with a market value of 146.8 billion in Q1, 142.7 billion in Q2, 207.1 billion in Q3, and 181.9 billion in Q4 [3]. - Guizhou Moutai, a traditional consumer staple, saw a decline in its ranking and market value, dropping from second place at the beginning of the year to fifth by Q4 [10]. - Tencent Holdings remained relatively stable, fluctuating between second and fourth positions throughout the year [10]. - Notable rises in rankings were observed for technology stocks such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, which entered the top ten in Q3 and Q4, indicating a strong demand driven by AI computing needs [10]. Group 2: Changes in Industry Holdings - The electronics sector consistently ranked as the top industry for public fund holdings across all four quarters, with investment values increasing from 518.9 billion in Q1 to 774.5 billion in Q4 [6]. - The food and beverage sector declined from second place in Q1 to seventh place by Q4, reflecting a shift in investor preference [12]. - The medical and biological sector maintained a strong presence in the first three quarters but was surpassed by the electric equipment and communication sectors in Q4 [12]. - The electric equipment sector rose from fourth place at the beginning of the year to second place by Q4, while the communication sector made a notable leap from outside the top ten to third place [12]. - Non-bank financial and banking sectors experienced an overall decline in rankings, while the non-ferrous metals sector entered the top six in Q4 [13].

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Nuon New Power Flexible Allocation Mixed A (320018) reported a profit of 4.9971 million yuan for Q4 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.2548 yuan. The fund's net value growth rate for the reporting period was 7.26%, and the fund size reached 65.8123 million yuan by the end of Q4 2025 [3][14]. Fund Performance - As of January 22, the unit net value of the fund was 3.565 yuan. The fund manager, Li Xiaojie, has managed four funds over the past year, all of which have yielded positive returns. The highest growth rate among these funds was 48.16% for Nuon Low Carbon Economy Stock A, while the lowest was 5.05% for Nuon Huili Mixed A [3]. - The fund's net value growth rates over various periods are as follows: 2.18% over the last three months (ranking 1015/1286), 2.83% over the last six months (ranking 1146/1286), 16.89% over the last year (ranking 980/1286), and -15.38% over the last three years (ranking 1190/1286) [3]. Investment Strategy - The fund's Q4 holdings were primarily in dividend-related assets such as banks, oil and petrochemicals, and non-bank financials. The fund reduced its allocation in the banking sector while increasing its positions in non-bank financials and oil and petrochemicals [3]. Risk Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the last three years was -0.0472, ranking 1192/1275 among comparable funds [8]. - The maximum drawdown over the last three years was 30.05%, with the largest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q1 2022 at 17.43% [10]. Portfolio Composition - As of December 31, the fund's average stock position over the last three years was 74.15%, compared to the industry average of 72.57%. The fund reached a peak stock position of 79.28% at the end of 2021 and a low of 51.69% by the end of Q3 2022 [13]. - The top ten holdings of the fund as of Q4 2025 included China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, China Petroleum, Oppein Home, China Shenhua, New China Life Insurance, Sinopec, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, Yili Group, and Jiangsu Bank [17].