Report Overview - Report Title: Iron Ore Daily Report - Report Date: September 15, 2025 - Report Author: Commodity Research Institute, Black Research and Development 1. Futures Market Data - **DCE Futures Prices**: DCE01 was at 796.0, down 3.5 from yesterday; DCE05 was at 774.5, down 3.0; DCE09 was at 757.0, down 59.0 [2] - **Spread Data**: I01 - I05 was 21.5, down 0.5; I05 - I09 was 17.5, up 56.0; I09 - I01 was -39.0, down 55.5 [2] 2. Spot Market Data - **Spot Prices and Changes**: Various iron ore powders and concentrates showed price increases, such as PB powder (60.8%) rising from 777 to 780, and Newman powder rising from 787 to 790 [2] - **Base Difference Data**: The base differences of different varieties to 01, 05, and 09 contracts were calculated, with the optimal delivery product being BRBF(62.5%) with base differences of 35, 57, and 18 respectively [2] - **Spot Variety Spreads**: Spreads like Carajás fines - PB powder were 126, up 1 from the previous day, and Newman powder - Jinbuba powder was 26, down 3 [2] - **Import Profits**: Import profits of different varieties changed; for example, Carajás fines' import profit increased from -10 to -7, and PB powder's increased from -7 to -6 [2] 3. Index Data - **Platts Index**: The Platts 62% iron ore price was 106.4, up 0.7; the 65% price was 123.1, up 0.5; the 58% price was 93.9, up 1.3 [2] - **Domestic and Foreign US Dollar Spreads**: SGX主力 - DCE01 was 8.1, up 0.1; SGX主力 - DCE05 was 10.8, unchanged; SGX主力 - DCE09 was 6.0, up 3.7 [2] 4. Graphical Data - **Base Difference Graphs**: There were graphs showing the base differences between the optimal delivery product and 01, 05, and 09 contracts [19][12] - **Spread Graphs**: Graphs presented the 1/5 spread and other cross - period spreads [14] - **Import Profit Graphs**: Graphs displayed the import profits of PB powder, PB lump, Super Special powder, and Carajás fines over multiple years [17][21] - **Price Spread Graphs**: Graphs showed the spreads between PB lump - PB powder, Carajás fines - PB powder, and relationships between steel mill cash profits and high - medium - low grade price spreads [24][26]

| | | | | | | | ER FARFER | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/09/15 | | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2605 | HC2605 | 12605 | J2605 | JM2605 | 7000 | | | 1000 | | | (元/ ...

Consumption Data - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, marking a slight decline of 0.3 percentage points from July, the lowest monthly growth rate this year[3] - Retail sales of goods and catering services showed a divergence, with growth rates of 3.6% and 2.1% respectively, indicating a decline in catering services compared to July[3] - The retail sales of durable goods saw a year-on-year decline of 0.5 percentage points to 2.6%, the lowest since December 2024[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in August fell by 7.1% year-on-year, deepening by 1.8 percentage points, with all three major sectors showing weakness[4] - Real estate development investment saw a year-on-year decline of 19.5%, worsening by 2.5 percentage points[4] - Infrastructure investment also declined by 4.6% year-on-year, with significant drops in the electricity, heat, gas, and water supply sectors[4] Real Estate Market - Residential sales area decreased by 9.7% year-on-year, worsening by 2.6 percentage points, while new construction area fell by 18.3%, a decline of 9.1 percentage points[5] - The completion area saw a slight narrowing of the decline to 28.8% year-on-year[5] - National new and second-hand residential prices fell by 0.3% and 0.6% month-on-month respectively, with first-tier cities experiencing a 1.0% drop in second-hand housing prices[5] Industrial Output - The industrial added value growth rate fell by 0.5 percentage points to 5.2% year-on-year, with mining, utilities, and manufacturing sectors showing varied performance[6] - The manufacturing sector remains in a high growth range despite the impact of "anti-involution" on upstream industrial products[6] Economic Outlook - The report highlights a continued cooling in consumption, investment, and the real estate market, with potential policy measures expected to stimulate the economy[6] - There is a focus on the possibility of increased fiscal expansion to boost consumption and effective investment, alongside potential monetary policy easing to stabilize real estate market expectations[6]

Oil Industry - International oil prices rebounded last week, with Brent 11 contract rising by 1.84% while SC10 contract fell by 1.39%. The market remains influenced by geopolitical tensions and mid-term oversupply pressures [2] Precious Metals - The market has fully priced in the expectation of three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, leading to a strong performance in precious metals, although volatility has increased [3] Copper - Copper prices saw a pullback after a spike, with high overseas inventory levels affecting market sentiment. Domestic production capacity is stabilizing, and attention is on current copper prices and premiums [4] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices followed the overall strength in non-ferrous metals, breaking through the 21,000 yuan mark. Seasonal demand recovery is expected, with aluminum ingot inventory likely remaining low [5] Alumina - Alumina production capacity exceeds 96 million tons, with rising industry inventory levels. The market is experiencing significant oversupply, leading to price declines [6] Zinc - LME zinc inventory is low, and external supply is tight. The market is experiencing a rebound, but domestic prices lag behind. Short-term strategies should focus on macroeconomic influences [8] Lead - Lead production is expected to decrease due to factory repairs, easing supply pressure. However, demand remains weak, with limited purchasing activity from downstream sectors [9] Steel Industry - Steel prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with rebar demand and production continuing to decline. The construction sector is slowing down, impacting overall demand [15][16] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are fluctuating, with stable port inventories and a slight recovery in demand. Steel mills are expected to continue replenishing inventories in the short term [16] Fertilizer Industry - Urea prices are declining due to weak market sentiment and high inventory levels among producers. Agricultural demand remains low, leading to a continuation of weak market conditions [25] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are experiencing low volatility, with market sentiment improving slightly. Total inventory levels are decreasing, indicating potential demand recovery [12] Agricultural Products - The USDA report indicates a slight increase in soybean production despite lower yield estimates. Market sentiment remains cautious as weather conditions are expected to impact future supply [37] Cotton - Cotton prices are fluctuating, with expectations of a large new crop. The market is closely monitoring the purchasing behavior of ginners as new cotton comes to market [44] Sugar - Sugar prices are under pressure due to high production levels in Brazil, while domestic sugar sales are increasing, leading to lower inventory levels [45]

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories shows a mixed trend, with 8 products experiencing price increases, while 40 products saw price declines, and 2 remained stable in early September 2025 compared to late August 2025 [2]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, prices for rebar, wire rod, and ordinary plates decreased by 1.3%, 1.6%, and 0.7% respectively, with rebar priced at 3175.0 yuan per ton [4]. - In the non-ferrous metal category, electrolytic copper increased by 1.0% to 80030.0 yuan per ton, while aluminum ingots decreased by 0.3% to 20686.3 yuan per ton [4]. - Chemical products showed varied results, with caustic soda increasing by 1.5% to 909.7 yuan per ton, while pure benzene and styrene saw declines of 2.5% and 3.1% respectively [4]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) increased by 1.6% to 4503.7 yuan per ton, while gasoline prices decreased by 0.6% for 95 and 0.7% for 92 grades [4]. - Coal prices also experienced declines, with ordinary mixed coal dropping by 5.5% to 526.6 yuan per ton, and Shanxi premium mixed coal decreasing by 2.0% to 687.5 yuan per ton [4]. Group 3: Agricultural Products and Inputs - In agricultural products, the price of yellow corn decreased by 0.1% to 2299.7 yuan per ton, while cotton prices fell by 0.2% to 14720.2 yuan per ton [5]. - Fertilizer prices showed a decline, with urea dropping by 1.3% to 1736.4 yuan per ton, while pesticide prices increased by 0.7% to 27275.0 yuan per ton [5]. Group 4: Monitoring Methodology - The monitoring of market prices includes data from over 2000 wholesalers, agents, and distributors across more than 300 trading markets in 31 provinces [8]. - The price monitoring methods involve on-site price collection, telephone inquiries, and electronic communications [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each black commodity, the short - term price trends are predicted as follows: steel (narrow - range consolidation), iron ore (fluctuation), coking coal (fluctuation), coke (fluctuation), manganese silicon (fluctuation), and ferrosilicon (fluctuation) [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For steel, the price of rebar futures fluctuated and declined. Spot prices were stable with some declines, and trading volume decreased. Rebar production increased, inventory accumulated for the seventh consecutive week, and apparent demand declined slightly. It is expected that the rebar futures market will mainly move in a narrow - range consolidation in the short term [1] - For iron ore, the price of the main futures contract first fell and then rose. Supply decreased, while demand increased due to the resumption of blast furnaces. Under the influence of multiple factors, it is expected that ore prices will fluctuate [1] - For coking coal, the futures price rose. Supply saw stable resumption, but downstream demand was mainly based on on - demand procurement. It is expected that the coking coal futures market will fluctuate in the short term [1] - For coke, the futures price rose. Supply increased as coke production increased, while demand was weak due to poor steel consumption. It is expected that the coke futures market will fluctuate in the short term [1] - For manganese silicon, the futures price fluctuated weakly. Supply was at a relatively high level, and demand was expected to increase. With cost support, it is expected that the manganese silicon market will mainly fluctuate in the short term [1][3] - For ferrosilicon, the futures price fluctuated weakly. Supply was at a relatively high level, and demand was expected to increase. With cost support, it is expected that the ferrosilicon market will mainly fluctuate in the short term [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3092 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton or 0.55% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 133,000 in open interest. The national rebar production this week decreased by 67,500 tons to 2.1193 million tons compared with the previous week, and the apparent demand decreased by 40,000 tons to 1.9807 million tons [1] - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the main futures contract i2601 was 795.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.5 yuan/ton or 1.18% from the previous trading day. The global iron ore shipments decreased from the high level. The molten iron output increased by 117,100 tons to 2.4055 million tons compared with the previous week [1] - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1141.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.5 yuan/ton or 2.19%, with an increase of 13,673 in open interest. Some coal types in coal mines accumulated inventory, and downstream demand was mainly based on on - demand procurement [1] - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1630 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan/ton or 1.68%, with an increase of 472 in open interest. Coke production increased steadily, and some steel mills began to control the procurement rhythm [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The main contract price was 5838 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24% compared with the previous day, with an increase of 2085 in open interest. The 9 - month silicon - manganese tender was 17,000 tons, an increase of 900 tons compared with August [1][3] - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract price was 5626 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18% compared with the previous day, with a decrease of 5691 in open interest. A large steel group in Hebei tendered 3151 tons of 75B ferrosilicon in September, an increase of 316 tons compared with August [3] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: Data on contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months) and basis for various commodities (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon) are provided, along with their latest values and month - on - month changes [4] - **Profits and Cross - Commodity Spreads**: Data on profits (such as rebar futures profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and cross - commodity spreads (such as hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, rebar to iron ore ratio) are provided, along with their latest values and month - on - month changes [4] 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][15] - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of main contracts for various commodities from 2022 - 2026 [17][19][22][24] - **3.3 Inter - Period Contract Spreads**: Charts show the inter - period contract spreads (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for various commodities from 2019 - 2026 [26][29][31][32][34][36][38][40] - **3.4 Cross - Commodity Contract Spreads**: Charts show the cross - commodity contract spreads (such as hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, rebar to iron ore ratio) from 2020 - 2025 [42][43][44][46] - **3.5 Rebar Profits**: Charts show the profits of rebar main contracts (such as coal - coke ratio, double - silicon spread) from 2020 - 2025 [46][47][51] 4. Black Research Team Members Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional backgrounds and qualifications [53][54]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Macro and Financial Futures - The implementation of domestic service - consumption stimulus policies may form a synergistic effect with commodity - consumption boosting measures to support the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods, but the actual effect needs further observation. Overseas, the CPI data rebounded in August, and the weakening of the US employment market has increased the market's bet on the Fed's interest rate cut. The Fed's interest rate dot - plot will be the focus of the market [1]. - The US dollar index is in a volatile range. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate is likely to fluctuate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement in batches at the upper edge of the exchange - rate range, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign - exchange purchase strategy near the 7.10 mark [2][3]. Stock Index - The sentiment and capital situation of the stock index have improved, and it is expected to be strong in the short term. However, if the stock index continues to rise rapidly, there will be a need for adjustment due to over - heated sentiment [4]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market rebounded due to rumors of the central bank restarting bond purchases. The central bank's attitude needs to be closely watched, and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [4][5]. Shipping - The new weekly opening quotes of Maersk are lower than the previous values, and CMA CGM and Evergreen have also followed up and lowered their quotes for European routes, which is likely to drive down the futures price valuation. It is recommended to operate with a quick - in - and - quick - out strategy [8]. Commodities Precious Metals - Precious metals are in a high - level shock. In the medium and long term, they may be bullish. In the short term, gold and silver are in a high - level consolidation. It is advisable to maintain the idea of buying on dips [9][11]. Copper - US inflation - related data are lower than expected, which increases the expectation of interest rate cuts and causes the copper price to strengthen slightly. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [12]. Aluminum Industry Chain - For aluminum, the macro environment is favorable, and the short - term trend is expected to be strong, but investors should be cautious about chasing high prices. For alumina, the supply is in excess, and the price is expected to be weak. For cast aluminum alloy, the cost provides support, and it is advisable to consider arbitrage operations [13][14][15]. Zinc - In the short term, the zinc price is in a bottom - strengthening shock. It is advisable to continue to observe the LME inventory approaching the extreme value or sell out - of - the - money put options [16]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - They maintain a shock trend, with limited downward space [17][18]. Tin - Affected by US PPI data, the tin price has risen slightly. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The "Golden September and Silver October" downstream peak - season demand provides support for the lithium - carbonate price, and short - term supply - side disturbances do not change the fundamental support logic [20][21]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - In the short term, the Inner Mongolia meeting has a positive impact on sentiment. In the long term, the industry is under structural pressure. The polysilicon market is affected by news and policy expectations, and investors are advised to be cautious [22][23]. Lead - The lead price is in a narrow - range shock. It is advisable to consider selling out - of - the - money call options or using a double - selling strategy [24]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The supply of crude steel has recovered, but the overall supply of the five major steel products has decreased. The steel inventory pressure is large, and the steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [26][27]. Iron Ore - The iron - ore price is difficult to rise unilaterally. It is recommended to take profit on long positions [28]. Coking Coal and Coke - A second - round price cut is expected. The coal - coke market is expected to maintain a wide - range shock pattern in the short term [29]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Their trends mainly follow the coking - coal price. It is recommended to lightly try long positions on the main contracts, but beware of the risk of a sharp fall after a rise [30][31]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Production increase dominates the oil - price trend. It is recommended to short on rallies [33]. LPG - It maintains a shock trend. The domestic supply is controllable, and the demand is slightly weakened [34][35]. PTA - PX - The industrial profit is under pressure, but the support is strengthening. It is recommended to expand the processing margin below 260 and try to lay out long positions on TA01 below 4650 [35][38]. MEG - Bottle Chip - There is a pre - expected inventory build - up. It is recommended to wait and see and look for opportunities to short on rallies [39][40]. PP - The cost provides support, and it is expected to be stronger than PE in the short term [41][43]. PE - The current driving force is weak. It is expected to be in a shock pattern, and further demand increase signals need to be awaited [44][45]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - They follow the cost - end fluctuations. Pure benzene is expected to be weak in the short term, and styrene is in a shock state and it is advisable to wait and see [45][47]. Fuel Oil - It follows the cost fluctuations. It is recommended to wait to short the cracking spread [46][47]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - It is recommended to wait to go long on the cracking spread [48]. Asphalt - The demand is affected by rainfall, but the inventory is improving. It is advisable to try long positions after the crude - oil price stabilizes [49][50]. Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - The downstream operating rate has increased, and the domestic demand is resilient. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions [50][52]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda Soda Ash - The supply is expected to remain high in the medium and long term. The supply - demand pattern is one of strong supply and weak demand, and attention should be paid to cost and supply expectations [53]. Glass - The supply is expected to be stable or slightly increase. The market is in a weak - balance to weak - surplus state. Attention should be paid to supply, cost, and demand factors [54]. Caustic Soda - The near - end spot price is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the spot rhythm, peak - season performance, and downstream stocking enthusiasm [55][56]. Pulp - The fundamental improvement is not obvious. It is recommended to wait and see and not chase short positions [56][57]. Logs - There are no new factors, and it is in a shock state. It is advisable to wait and see [57]. Summaries According to the Catalog Financial Futures - **Macro**: Domestic service - consumption stimulus policies are expected to be introduced, and overseas, the US employment market is weakening, increasing the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US dollar - RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week. Different strategies are recommended for export and import enterprises [2][3]. - **Stock Index**: The sentiment and capital situation have improved, and it is expected to be strong in the short term, but there is a risk of adjustment [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market rebounded, and the central bank's attitude is the focus. It is recommended to wait and see [4][5]. Shipping - Maersk's new quotes and the follow - up actions of other shipping companies drive down the futures price valuation. A quick - in - and - quick - out strategy is recommended [8]. Commodities Precious Metals - The inflation data are in line with expectations, and the employment market is cooling. Precious metals are in a high - level shock, and a long - on - dips strategy is recommended [9][11]. Copper - US inflation data increase the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the copper price strengthens slightly. Selling out - of - the - money put options is recommended [12]. Aluminum Industry Chain - For aluminum, the macro and fundamental factors are favorable, but investors should be cautious. For alumina, the supply is excessive. For cast aluminum alloy, the cost provides support [13][14][15]. Zinc - The supply is in excess, and the demand is average. The short - term trend is a bottom - strengthening shock [16]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - They maintain a shock trend, with limited downward space [17][18]. Tin - Affected by US PPI data, the tin price rises slightly. Selling out - of - the money put options is recommended [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The downstream peak - season demand supports the price, and short - term supply disturbances do not change the fundamentals [20][21]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The short - term sentiment is supported, but the long - term industry is under structural pressure. The polysilicon market is affected by news and policies [22][23]. Lead - The lead price is in a narrow - range shock. It is advisable to consider option - selling strategies [24]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The crude - steel supply has recovered, but the overall supply of the five major steel products has decreased, and the inventory pressure is large [26][27]. Iron Ore - The price is difficult to rise unilaterally due to weak demand. Taking profit on long positions is recommended [28]. Coking Coal and Coke - A second - round price cut is expected, and the market is in a wide - range shock in the short term [29]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Their trends follow coking coal. Lightly trying long positions is recommended, but beware of risks [30][31]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Production increase leads to a decline in oil prices. A short - on - rallies strategy is recommended [33]. LPG - It maintains a shock trend, with controllable supply and slightly weakened demand [34][35]. PTA - PX - The industrial profit is under pressure, but the support is strengthening. Processing - margin expansion and long - position layout strategies are recommended [35][38]. MEG - Bottle Chip - There is a pre - expected inventory build - up. It is recommended to wait and look for short - on - rallies opportunities [39][40]. PP - The cost provides support, and it is expected to be stronger than PE in the short term [41][43]. PE - The current driving force is weak, and it is in a shock pattern, awaiting demand increase signals [44][45]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - They follow cost fluctuations. Pure benzene is expected to be weak, and styrene is in a shock state [45][47]. Fuel Oil - It follows cost fluctuations. Waiting to short the cracking spread is recommended [46][47]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Waiting to go long on the cracking spread is recommended [48]. Asphalt - The demand is affected by rainfall, and the inventory is improving. Trying long positions after crude - oil price stabilization is advisable [49][50]. Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - The downstream operating rate has increased, and the domestic demand is resilient. Short - term long positions can be considered [50][52]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda Soda Ash - The supply is expected to remain high, and the supply - demand pattern is one of strong supply and weak demand [53]. Glass - The supply is stable or slightly increasing, and the market is in a weak - balance to weak - surplus state [54]. Caustic Soda - The near - end spot is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. Spot rhythm and demand need to be watched [55][56]. Pulp and Logs Pulp - The fundamental improvement is not obvious. It is recommended to wait and not chase short positions [56][57]. Logs - There are no new factors, and it is in a shock state. It is advisable to wait and see [57].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The trading logic of the crude oil market is still switching between medium - term surplus pressure and short - term geopolitical fluctuations, and the strategy is to combine previous high - level short positions with out - of - the - money call options [2]. - Precious metals may remain strong before the Fed's meeting this month, but be cautious about chasing highs after continuous rises [3]. - Various metals, energy products, chemical products, and agricultural products have different market trends, mainly including trends such as price fluctuations, supply - demand imbalances, and impacts of policies and events [2][3][4] Summary by Category Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices declined. The IEA's September report shows an increase in the supply - demand surplus, with pressure concentrated in Q4 and Q1 next year. The trading logic is between surplus pressure and geopolitical fluctuations, and the strategy is to combine short positions and call options [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: FU仓单 net decreased by 6800 tons in two trading days this week, and FU is stronger than LU due to geopolitical premium [20]. - **Asphalt**: Night - session oil prices dropped, and asphalt followed with a limited decline. Warehouse receipts decreased on Thursday. September's first - week shipments slowed, but the impact is expected to be short - term. Factory inventories increased while social inventories decreased, and overall inventory is flat. Long positions set at the beginning of the week were closed with profits [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The international market is strong due to strong procurement demand in India and East Asia. In early September, the arrival volume in Guangdong decreased, strengthening the support of import costs. Terminal product prices are rising, and the high -开工 rate pattern can be maintained. The spot has stronger support, but the futures price is limited by high - volume warehouse receipts and will run in a range [22]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: US CPI data in August met expectations, and the number of initial jobless claims reached a 4 - year high, verifying weak employment. The market has fully priced in three consecutive Fed rate cuts this year. Precious metals may remain strong before the meeting this month, but be cautious about chasing highs [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Night - session copper prices continued to rise. US CPI increased, and the labor market showed signs of slowing, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut and weakening the dollar. The spot copper price in China was 80175 yuan, and the Shanghai copper premium was 85 yuan. The inventory of the Steel Union increased by 900 tons to 149,000 tons. There is limited short - term upward space for Shanghai copper, and attention should be paid to the premium of call options with an exercise price of 82,000 yuan for the 2520 contract [4]. - **Aluminum**: Night - session Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly and reached the 21,000 - yuan mark. Downstream construction started to pick up seasonally, and the production of aluminum rods increased month - on - month. The inventory of aluminum ingots is likely to remain low this year, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 0.6 million tons on Tuesday. Short - term Shanghai aluminum will continue to test the 21,000 - yuan resistance [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It followed Shanghai aluminum and oscillated strongly. The Baotai spot price was stable at 20,400 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the expected tax policy adjustment increased enterprise costs. The cross - variety price difference between the spot and Shanghai aluminum has room to narrow further [6]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity is at a historical high, and the industry inventory is rising. The warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased to over 130,000 tons. Supply surplus is evident, and spot prices are dropping rapidly. The industry profit still has room to be compressed, and the support level is around 2830 yuan, the low in June [7]. - **Zinc**: The US PPI increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. Coupled with low LME zinc inventory, the external market is in a rebound trend, driving the domestic market. The import ore price ratio is not good, and smelters mainly purchase domestic ore. The domestic ore TC decreased instead of increasing, which also supports the price in the short term. The CZSPT issued a guidance price range of 120 - 140 dollars/ton for imported zinc concentrate TC by the end of Q4. The growth space of imported ore TC this year is limited. Short - term Shanghai zinc is strongly supported at 22,000 yuan/ton. The supply - demand situation of "supply increase and demand weakness" remains unchanged, and the market is observing the performance of the consumption peak season [8]. - **Lead**: The increase in refinery maintenance led to a decrease in SMM lead social inventory, and short - position holders reduced their positions at low levels. Consumption is still weak, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. The domestic situation is stronger than the overseas situation, and the expectation of overseas low - price lead inflow restricts the rebound space of Shanghai lead. The supply of scrap batteries is in short supply, and the cost of recycled lead has strong support. The supply - demand is weak, and the market lacks contradictions, so it is advisable to wait and see [9]. - **Tin**: Night - session tin prices rose. This week, it held the key support level. Overseas, the LME tin inventory is increasing, but the concentration of positions is still high. In China, the social inventory is awaited. The current tin price is 271,100 yuan, with a premium of 850 yuan for the delivery month. A small number of low - position long positions can be held based on the MA60 daily line [10]. Chemicals - **Polysilicon**: The main contract slightly reduced positions and closed up at 53,700 yuan/ton. The market trading enthusiasm declined marginally. The market is in a re - balancing stage dominated by capital games. The spot price is basically stable, and the prices of batteries and components are rising. The effectiveness of cost transfer needs to be verified. Some regions have completed energy - saving inspections of the polysilicon industry, and there is a lack of incremental policy guidance. The market is under significant upward pressure and will maintain a volatile pattern [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract reduced positions and closed up above 8700 yuan/ton. There is an increasing expectation of eliminating high - power - consumption and low - efficiency production capacity, but the actual effect remains to be seen. In September, the supply is expected to increase by 5%, and the production of downstream polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decrease. The decline in downstream demand is limited according to current inventory changes. Short - term industrial silicon is expected to maintain a volatile pattern [12]. - **Other Chemicals** - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC oscillated narrowly. Supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and social inventory is at a new high. New production capacity is being put into operation, and the supply pressure is large. The cost support is not obvious. The futures price may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda oscillated during the day. The industry inventory decreased again, and the spot performance is differentiated. The price is relatively firm, but there is still supply pressure in the future, and it is expected to oscillate widely [28]. - **PX & PTA**: Night - session prices were dragged down by the decline in oil prices. The short - process efficiency of PX is good, but there is a lack of new production capacity. The production growth space is limited. Attention should be paid to the maintenance of existing plants. PTA is continuously de - stocking, but the processing margin and basis are weakening. The price driver is still the raw material, and recent plant maintenance has increased. Terminal weaving orders are increasing, and demand is improving. Consider the possibility of the relative valuation of PX/PTA to oil rising before the National Day [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price continued to be weak. The trial operation of new plants put pressure on the near - term contract, and the monthly spread declined. The domestic production decreased slightly, and the expected weekly arrival volume increased slightly. The port inventory is low, and the basis is still strong. Attention should be paid to the trial operation of the two new plants [30]. Building Materials - **Steel Products (Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Night - session steel prices oscillated weakly. This week, the apparent demand and production of rebar continued to decline, and inventory continued to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coil recovered significantly, production increased, and inventory decreased slightly. The rapid resumption of blast furnaces led to an increase in hot - metal production, but the low profit per ton restricted further resumption. The market still faces potential negative feedback pressure. The downstream real estate investment continued to decline significantly, and the growth rate of infrastructure and manufacturing slowed down. Domestic demand is still weak, while steel exports remain high. The market is pessimistic, and the futures price has insufficient upward momentum. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the improvement of building material demand in the peak season [13]. - **Iron Ore**: Night - session iron ore futures oscillated. The global shipment decreased, the domestic arrival volume decreased slightly, and the port inventory stabilized and increased. There is no significant pressure to accumulate inventory in the short term. Terminal demand has slightly recovered, and steel mills' profitability is at a low level. Hot - metal production returned to a high level this week, and there is still support for iron ore demand. Steel mills have a demand for pre - holiday inventory replenishment in the next two weeks. Domestic policy benefits are yet to be released, and the overseas Fed rate - cut expectation is rising. The market speculative sentiment still exists in the short term. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [14]. - **Coke**: The price oscillated strongly during the day. The second round of price cuts for coking is in progress, and hot - metal production has recovered to over 240. Coking profit is acceptable, and daily coking production decreased slightly. The overall coke inventory is rising, and the purchasing意愿 of traders has decreased. The supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the downstream hot - metal production is expected to gradually recover. The price is greatly disturbed by the "anti - involution" policy expectation, and the volatility is large [15]. - **Coking Coal**: The price oscillated strongly during the day. Hot - metal production has recovered to over 240. The production of coking coal mines increased month - on - month. The spot auction transaction weakened slightly, and the transaction price followed the futures price down. The terminal inventory decreased slightly. The total coking coal inventory decreased month - on - month, and the production - end inventory continued to increase slightly. The previous shutdowns are gradually resuming. The supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the downstream hot - metal production is expected to gradually recover. The price is greatly disturbed by the "anti - involution" policy expectation, and the volatility is large [16]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: As of September 9, about 22% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 16% the previous week. US soybeans rose slightly yesterday. The domestic soybean meal futures are in a range - bound pattern, and the domestic soybean meal spot is slightly weak. Brazil's soybean premium is high, and the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient. With Argentine soybean meal, the supply in Q4 is generally stable. However, if Sino - US trade negotiations are not resolved by the end of the year, there may be a shortage of domestic soybean supply in Q1 next year. The market may continue to oscillate in the short term, and the strategy is to go long at low levels. The USDA will release the September supply - demand report on September 13, and the market expects a reduction in soybean yield per unit [35]. - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil & Palm Oil)**: The Malaysian palm oil futures rebounded after a short - term correction. The US soybean oil futures also rebounded after trading on the bearish bio - fuel policy expectation. The market is waiting for the USDA supply - demand report this week, expecting a reduction in US soybean yield per unit, US soybean exports, and Argentine soybean planting area. The domestic soybean oil and palm oil prices rebounded after reducing positions. The domestic situation is weak. In the medium term, palm oil is in the seasonal production - reduction cycle. In the long term, the biodiesel policies of Indonesia and the US support the industrial demand for vegetable oils, and the aging of palm trees is prominent. It is advisable to go long at low levels [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The price of North American oilseeds is under pressure due to the expected tight import of oilseeds in China. The port price of Canadian rapeseed decreased by 5% this week, driving down the price of Australian rapeseed by 2%. Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade negotiations are the main factors affecting the supply - demand and price of rapeseed products. The domestic rapeseed - soybean oil price difference is at a slightly high level, which is not conducive to the short - term demand for rapeseed oil. Rapeseed meal demand is mainly for rigid needs. The futures price may rise slightly in the short - term oscillation [37]. - **Corn**: Night - session corn futures continued to oscillate narrowly. The spot supply in Shandong is abundant, and the purchase price decreased. The Northeast corn spot is strong, and the opening price of new - season corn is higher than last year. The结转 inventory at the northern port is the lowest in recent years. Traders have high expectations for the new - season corn. Cofco will conduct an auction of imported corn today, about 190,000 tons. Corn may continue to oscillate strongly before the new - grain opening, and the Dalian corn futures may run weakly at the bottom after the enthusiasm for new - grain purchase fades [39]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pig**: The futures price oscillated weakly during the day, and the spot price stabilized. The price difference between fat and lean pigs is inverted in many provinces, which may accelerate the slaughter of large pigs. The supply pressure is large in the second half of the year, and the fundamentals are weak. The tightening of transportation policies has increased the downward pressure on pig prices in traditional pig - exporting provinces. The agricultural and rural affairs department will hold a symposium on pig production capacity regulation next Tuesday. The current main - contract futures price has dropped close to the level at the beginning of the "anti - involution", so it is advisable to wait and see [40]. - **Egg**: The egg futures oscillated and slightly reduced positions, and the spot price continued to rise. It is still in the seasonal rebound window of the spot market. The industry still has a high - inventory problem, and the capacity needs to be further reduced. The number of newly - hatched chickens is expected to decrease by the end of the year. It is estimated that the peak of this round of production capacity will be reached in Q4 this year. For the far - month contracts in the first half of next year, it is advisable to consider long positions, while for the near - month contracts, attention should be paid to the exit of short - position funds [41]. Others - **Stock Index**: A - shares rose significantly with heavy trading volume yesterday. The Shanghai Composite Index approached the previous high, and the ChiNext Index rose more than 5% to regain 3000 points. All the main contracts of stock - index futures closed up, with IC leading the rise by more than 3%. Only the IM contract is still slightly at a discount to the underlying index. Overnight, overseas stock markets rose collectively, and US bond yields declined at the long end, while the US dollar index closed down. The US CPI data in August basically met expectations, but the number of initial jobless claims reached a new high since October 2021. The market has fully priced in three Fed rate cuts by the end of the year. Geopolitical situations are at a critical stage, and attention should be paid to the possible linkage with Sino - EU and Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. It is advisable to increase the allocation of the technology - growth sector and also pay attention to the opportunity of the Hang Seng Technology Index [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures continued to adjust. Affected by the expected implementation of the third - stage fee reform of public funds, the market redemption pressure increased significantly, and the attractiveness of bond funds decreased. The bond market fluctuated greatly, and the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds may compete at the 1.8% level. Technically, the yield fluctuation is converging, and the market is quiet. The structural differentiation of treasury bond futures continues, and the probability of a steeper yield curve increases [48].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report for September 12, 2025, covering multiple commodity sectors including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] Group 2: Thermal Coal - The table shows the basis, 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads of thermal coal from September 5 to September 11, 2025. The basis on September 11 was - 126.4 yuan/ton, and the spreads were all 0.0 [2] Group 3: Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - Data on the basis of fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt are presented from September 5 to September 11, 2025. For example, on September 11, the basis of INE crude oil was 16.42 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1413 [7] Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from September 5 to September 11, 2025 is provided. For instance, on September 11, the basis of rubber was - 1005 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - delivery spreads**: The 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rubber was 30 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from September 5 to September 11, 2025 are shown. On September 11, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2352 yuan/ton [10] Group 4: Black Metals Inter - delivery spreads - The 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month(10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month(10) minus 5 - month spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rebar was 49.0 yuan/ton [19] Inter - commodity spreads - The ratios of rebar to iron ore, rebar to coke, coke to coking coal, and the spread of rebar minus hot - rolled coil from September 5 to September 11, 2025 are given. On September 11, the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 3.88 [19] Basis - The basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 5 to September 11, 2025 is provided. On September 11, the basis of rebar was 118.0 yuan/ton [20] Group 5: Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 5 to September 11, 2025 is shown. On September 11, the basis of copper was 10 yuan/ton [27] London Market - Data on LME non - ferrous metals including LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on September 11, 2025 are presented. For example, the LME premium/discount of copper was (61.54) [34] Group 6: Agricultural Products Basis - The basis of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from September 5 to September 11, 2025 is provided. On September 11, the basis of soybeans No.1 was 115 yuan/ton [39] Inter - delivery spreads - The 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads of various agricultural products are given. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 47 yuan/ton [39] Inter - commodity spreads - The ratios and spreads such as soybeans No.1 to corn, soybeans No.2 to corn, soybean oil to soybean meal, soybean meal minus rapeseed meal, soybean oil minus palm oil, rapeseed oil minus soybean oil, and corn minus corn starch from September 5 to September 11, 2025 are shown. On September 11, the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn was 1.79 [39] Group 7: Stock Index Futures Basis - The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 5 to September 11, 2025 is provided. On September 11, the basis of CSI 300 was - 13.97 [51] Inter - delivery spreads - The spreads of next - month minus current - month and next - quarter minus current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented. For example, the next - month minus current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 53.8 [53]

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