Group 1 - The central government has initiated measures to prevent "involution" and unhealthy competition, with relevant ministries actively implementing "anti-involution" policies [1][3] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have released a draft amendment to the Price Law, which includes ten articles focusing on government pricing, standards for identifying unfair pricing behaviors, and legal responsibilities for price violations [3] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the need to resist "involution" competition and promote the restructuring and optimization of state-owned capital [3] Group 2 - On July 24, the basic metals index in the Wind China industry index rose by 3.94%, leading the industry indices, and has accelerated since the end of June [5] - The steel index also saw a significant increase of 2.43%, with substantial growth since July 1 [5] - The construction materials index experienced a surge following the commencement of the Yaxi Hydropower Super Project, continuing a trend of steady increases [9]

【导读】四部委出台相关"反内卷"举措 中国基金报记者 卢鸰 在中央明确要求防止"内卷式"恶性竞争之后，相关部委 积极 行动，出台相关"反内卷"举措。 据公告披露，该修正草案共10条，主要涉及三方面内容，包括完善政府定价相关内容、进一 步明确不正当价格行为认定标准、健全价格违法行为法律责任。 在进一步明确不正当价格行为认定标准方面，一是完善低价倾销的认定标准，规范市场价格 秩序，治理"内卷式"竞争；二是完善价格串通、哄抬价格、价格歧视等不正当价格行为认定 标准。 7月24日，国家发改委、国家市场监管总局发布关于《中华人民共和国价格法修正草案（征求 意见稿）》公开征求意见的公告，完善了低价倾销的认定标准，以规范市场价格秩序、治 理"内卷式"竞争；国资委在京举办地方国资委负责人研讨班，要求带头抵制"内卷式"竞争， 加强重组整合；国家医保局副局长施子海表示，第11批集采不再以简单的最低价作为参考， 且报价最低企业要公开说明报价的合理性，并承诺不低于成本报价。 二级市场上，7月24日，在Wind中国行业指数中，基本金属指数以3.94%的涨幅位居行业指 数榜首，且6月底以来加速上行；钢铁指数也大涨2.43%，7月1日以来 ...

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 2025年07月22日 | 黄金：震荡上行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：突破上行 | 2 | | 铜：库存减少，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 6 | | 铅：供需矛盾预期，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：价格走弱 | 9 | | 铝：震荡上行 | 11 | | 氧化铝：短期情绪偏强 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：宏观情绪提振预期，现实限制弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面决定弹性 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 22 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | 贵 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. has postponed the deadline for "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1, causing concerns in Taiwan regarding the tax rates to be imposed [1][2] - A report from a survey of 238 companies indicates that over 50% have already felt the direct impact of the proposed tariffs, with more than half predicting a revenue decrease of 10% to 30% if tariffs rise to 20% [1][2] - Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), particularly those with fewer than 50 employees, are expected to be hit hardest, with 35.8% forecasting revenue drops exceeding 30% [1][2] Group 2 - Traditional industries, such as rubber manufacturing, are projected to suffer the most, with over 60% of firms expecting revenue declines of more than 30% if tariffs are implemented [2] - The report aligns with recent statistics from Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs, showing a significant drop in export orders to the U.S. for traditional industries [2] - Although high-tech sectors like electronics have seen an increase in orders, this is attributed to U.S. firms stockpiling, and over 40% of high-tech companies anticipate future revenue declines due to potential tariff expansions [2][4] Group 3 - The report identifies five structural challenges faced by SMEs in Taiwan, including currency volatility and rising industrial electricity prices [3] - Policy recommendations include stabilizing the exchange rate and reviewing energy policies to support affected industries [3] - The potential economic impact of U.S. and Chinese economic downturns on Taiwan's economy is highlighted, with estimates suggesting a 0.29% decline for every 1% drop in the U.S. economy [3] Group 4 - The appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar has led to significant foreign exchange losses for companies, with one major postal service reporting a loss of 140.3 billion NTD due to currency fluctuations [4][5] - The hospitality sector is also feeling the effects, with hotels reporting decreased revenue due to reduced international tourist arrivals linked to both tariffs and currency appreciation [4][5] - Concerns are raised about the lack of transparency in tariff negotiations, with political implications affecting economic stability and business confidence [5][6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold is expected to move upward in a volatile manner, and silver is expected to break through and move upward [2][4]. - The good US economic data supports the copper price [2][9]. - Zinc is expected to operate within a range [2][13]. - The downside of lead may be limited [2][15]. - The price of tin is weakening [2][18]. - For aluminum, attention should be paid to the marginal changes in inventory; alumina is expected to be volatile and bullish; cast aluminum alloy is weaker than electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - Nickel is affected by news - related sentiment, and its fundamentals are under pressure; stainless steel prices are expected to move in a volatile manner due to the game between reality and macro factors [2][26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing price of沪金2510 was 776.28 with a daily decline of 0.05%, and the closing price of沪银2510 was 9166 with a daily increase of 0.15%. The trading volume and positions of relevant contracts also changed to varying degrees [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump's government is expected to visit the Fed regarding decoration issues. The next - likely Fed chairman, Waller, suggests a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July. US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations [5][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of gold and silver is 1 [7]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the沪铜主力合约 was 77,850 with a daily decline of 0.15%. The trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed, and the inventory of沪铜 decreased by 8,103 tons [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US retail sales data was strong, and the number of initial jobless claims last week decreased. China's imports of copper concentrates and unwrought copper and copper products in June showed different trends [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 0 [12]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the沪锌主力 was 22120 with a daily increase of 0.41%. The trading volume, positions, and inventory of relevant contracts changed [13]. - **News**: Potential Fed chairman candidates have different views on Fed policies, and Waller suggests a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is 0 [13]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the沪铅主力 was 16845 with a daily decline of 0.30%. The trading volume, positions, and inventory of relevant contracts changed [15]. - **News**: Similar to zinc, potential Fed chairman candidates have different views on Fed policies, and Waller suggests a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0 [16]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the沪锡主力合约 was 261,920 with a daily decline of 0.77%. The trading volume, positions, and inventory of relevant contracts changed [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar macro - level news as other metals, such as Fed - related news and US economic data [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of tin is - 1 [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: For electrolytic aluminum, the closing price of the沪铝主力合约 was 20415. For alumina, the closing price of the沪氧化铝主力合约 was 3089. The trading volume, positions, and inventory of relevant contracts changed [23]. - **Comprehensive News**: Morgan Stanley believes that the Fed's independence is a "myth", and the US and India are close to reaching a trade agreement [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum is 0, alumina is 1, and cast aluminum alloy is 0 [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the沪镍主力 was 119,880, and the closing price of the不锈钢主力 was 12,730. The trading volume, positions, and relevant prices in the industrial chain changed [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There are issues such as potential nickel export restrictions from Canada, the start of trial production of a nickel - iron project in Indonesia, and the resumption of production of a nickel smelter in Indonesia [26][27]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0 [30].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The basic metals sector is under pressure, with tin and lead prices dropping by 3.15% and 2.10% respectively, indicating weak performance in the black series commodities, where coking coal and coke fell by 2.20% and 1.91% respectively [1] - The agricultural products market showed mixed results, with major indices experiencing slight declines, such as the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.02% to 3339.93 points [1] Real Estate Market Insights - A report from Goldman Sachs highlighted that the real estate market in the 21st domestic state is stabilizing, with notable performance in export-dependent cities. The transaction volume for new and second-hand homes increased by 9% and 3% respectively on a month-over-month basis [2][3] - The central government has launched a city renewal plan, including old community renovations and fiscal support, aimed at boosting market confidence. Despite a slight decrease of 1% in new home sales area, first-tier and mid-west cities continue to lead in performance [2] Construction Sector Challenges - Predictions indicate a year-over-year decline of approximately 20% and 10% in new construction and completion areas, reflecting ongoing supply-side pressures in the industry [3] - The report emphasizes the structural advantages of export-oriented cities and the long-term impact of policy support, although the market still faces challenges in supply-demand adjustments [3] Global Economic Context - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, marking the sixth consecutive cut since August 2024, with a cumulative reduction of 225 basis points [3] - The RBNZ forecasts a further decline in cash rates to 2.92% by Q4 2025 and 2.85% by Q1 2026, indicating a deeper easing cycle amid growing concerns over economic prospects [3] U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing increased risk perception, with the 20-year Treasury bond auction on May 21 facing weak demand, resulting in a high yield of 5.047%, the second-highest on record [4] - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign rating signifies a loss of the highest credit rating by all three major rating agencies, amplifying market risk expectations [4] Investor Sentiment and Market Reactions - Despite declines in U.S. equities and bonds, a report from Japan suggesting a potential reduction in long-term bond issuance has alleviated some market anxiety, potentially benefiting U.S. Treasury markets [5] - The global bond market is undergoing significant changes, with increased risks associated with traditionally safe U.S. Treasuries, leading investors to consider assets in other countries [6] Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical landscape remains tense, with the EU condemning Israeli military actions in Gaza, and discussions around defense systems involving Canada and the U.S. [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to oscillate upwards, while silver is predicted to break through and rise [2][6]. - Copper prices are supported by the firm domestic spot market [2][10]. - Zinc is under pressure and expected to operate under stress [2][13]. - The downside for lead prices may be relatively limited [2][16]. - Tin prices are weakening [2][19]. - Aluminum is under pressure during the off - season, alumina will fluctuate within a range, and the operating rate of cast aluminum alloy is declining [2][23]. - The support from the nickel ore end has loosened, and global refined nickel is marginally accumulating inventory. Stainless steel prices will oscillate due to the game between reality and macro factors [2][26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Fundamental Data**: For gold, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2510, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2510 all declined, with daily and night - session fluctuations. For silver, the closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2510 and Silver T + D showed different trends, with some increases and some decreases. Trading volumes, positions, ETF holdings, and inventories also had corresponding changes [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US June core CPI data did not change the Fed's decision. The US Treasury Secretary said there was no need to worry about the deadline for suspending the imposition of some tariffs between the US and China, and the negotiation situation was good [5][7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of gold and silver is 1, indicating a relatively neutral - to - positive outlook [8]. 3.2 Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract declined slightly, while the London Copper 3M electronic disk rose slightly. Trading volumes, positions, inventories, and various spot - related price differences all changed [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US June core CPI data did not change the Fed's decision. There were also news about trade tariffs and copper trade activities [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12]. 3.3 Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Zinc main contract and the London Zinc 3M electronic disk both declined. Trading volumes, positions, and various price - related data had corresponding changes [13]. - **News**: The US June core CPI data did not change the Fed's decision [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [14]. 3.4 Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Lead main contract and the London Lead 3M electronic disk both declined. Trading volumes, positions, and various price - related data had corresponding changes [16]. - **News**: The US June core CPI data did not change the Fed's decision [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17]. 3.5 Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Tin main contract and the London Tin 3M electronic disk both declined. Trading volumes, positions, inventories, and various price - related data had corresponding changes [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, there were news about the US CPI and trade - related events [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of tin is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [22]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, positions, and various price - related data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy all had different degrees of change. There were also data on inventories, production costs, and corporate profits [23]. - **Comprehensive News**: The US June core CPI data did not change the Fed's decision. There was also news about the US - China tariff negotiation situation [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [25]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and various price - related data of nickel and stainless steel futures had corresponding changes. There were also data on the industrial chain, such as the prices of high - nickel pig iron and the profit margins of nickel plate imports [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were news about the potential suspension of nickel exports from Canada to the US, the production status of nickel - related projects in Indonesia, and the environmental issues in the Indonesian nickel - mining area [26][27][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industry products, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each sector, suggesting different approaches such as buying, selling, or holding based on the specific market conditions of each commodity [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Prices are in high - level oscillation. China's central bank has increased gold holdings for 8 consecutive months. Suggest going long on gold due to the unchanged de - dollarization logic [1]. - **Silver**: It shows a rebound with good market sales recently. Long - term industrial silver demand is downward, so consider long - term short positions or going long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Prices oscillated. Trump's tariff increase affected the market. It is recommended to wait for a full adjustment and then buy at low prices [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to oscillate. It is advised to wait and see due to macro uncertainties and a consumption off - season [2]. - **Alumina**: Prices may be strong in the short term. It is recommended to buy at low prices or purchase call options [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term market sentiment is strong with high unilateral risks. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is recommended to wait and see due to expected marginal improvement and industrial information disturbances [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar Steel**: Supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is recommended to wait and see and try a reverse spread [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply and demand are neutral. It is recommended to wait and see and layout long positions on the far - month coil - ore ratio [4][5]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is relatively loose with improving fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term US soybeans are in a range - bound oscillation. Domestic soybeans follow international cost - side trends [6]. - **Corn**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate within a range due to reduced surplus grain and wheat substitution [6]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract is expected to be weak and oscillate. It is recommended to short in the futures market, sell call options, or lock in prices for end - users [6]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - bound trading strategy [7]. - **Palm Oil**: It is expected to be strong in the short term with wide - range oscillations. Pay attention to production areas and bio - diesel policies [7]. - **Eggs**: Futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate due to high supply and cost support [7]. - **Pigs**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate and adjust due to increasing supply and weakening demand [7]. - **Apples**: It is recommended to wait and see, and the market is affected by weather [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Short - term supply and demand improve. It is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long term [8][9]. - **PVC**: It is recommended to wait and see after gradually closing short positions [9]. - **PTA**: It is recommended to go long on PX, do a positive spread on PTA, and short processing fees in the long term [9]. - **Glass**: Fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **PP**: The short - term trend is weak and oscillating. It is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long term [9][10]. - **MEG**: It is expected to be weak. It is recommended to short at high prices [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The long - term trend is bearish. It is recommended to short at high prices and pay attention to inventory accumulation [10]. - **Styrene**: The short - term trend is weak and oscillating. It is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long term [10]. - **Soda Ash**: Fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to short at high prices [10][11].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 3500 points, reaching a high of 3512.67 points, the highest intraday level in nearly eight months, but closed at 3493.05 points, down 0.13% [1][3] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell slightly by 0.06% to 10581.8 points, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.16% [1] - Total A-share trading volume was 1.53 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 528 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The market showed sector divergence, with Wind's multi-financial and education indices leading gains, while precious and base metals indices saw significant declines [1] - Notable concept indices included Kimi, short drama games, and chicken industry indices, which rose by 2.22%, 2.13%, and 1.71% respectively, while rare earth, insurance, and GPU indices fell by around 1.8% [1][4] Investment Sentiment - Southbound funds showed a net inflow of approximately 9.256 billion Hong Kong dollars, indicating a willingness to invest despite the overall market decline [2] - Analysts suggest that while the risk of a significant market pullback is relatively low, further upward movement requires more fundamental support [2][12] Recent Trends - From July 1 to July 9, the Shanghai Composite Index, ChiNext Index, and Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.41%, 1.47%, and 1.11% respectively [6] - The construction materials, comprehensive, steel, banking, and media indices were the top five performing sectors during this period, with gains of 6.65%, 6.18%, 5.55%, 4.67%, and 3.75% respectively [10] Fund Flows - There has been a noticeable increase in fund inflows into thematic ETFs, with several ETFs seeing net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan [11] - The A-share financing balance has remained above 1.8 trillion yuan, indicating strong leverage sentiment among investors [11] Future Outlook - Analysts emphasize the importance of fundamental improvements for sustained market growth, with a focus on high ROE assets as a favorable investment strategy [12][13] - The current market environment is seen as a good opportunity for long-term investments, particularly in sectors like pharmaceuticals and consumer goods, which are expected to yield significant returns over time [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of global financial markets, including futures, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It also covers macro - economic news, industry policies, and corporate events, reflecting the complex and volatile nature of the current financial and economic situation. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Market Trends - International oil prices rose strongly, with the US oil main contract up 1.37% at $67.92 per barrel and Brent crude up 1.84% at $69.56 per barrel [2]. - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold up 0.10% at $3346.40 per ounce and COMEX silver down 0.39% at $36.94 per ounce [2]. - London base metals closed down across the board, with LME zinc down 1.51% at $2683.00 per ton, LME tin down 1.31% at $33260.00 per ton, and LME copper down 0.82% at $9784.00 per ton [2]. - Domestic futures main contracts were mixed, with fuel oil up over 1% and asphalt up nearly 1%, while rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, and corn were down nearly 1% [3]. Important Information Macro - Information - The first round of Gaza cease - fire talks in Doha ended without an agreement as the Israeli negotiation team lacked sufficient authorization [6]. - Trump announced a 10% tariff on countries aligning with BRICS' "anti - US policies", and China opposed such tariff wars [6][7]. - As of July 7, 2025, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) rose 6.3% to 2258.04 points [7]. - The EU is making progress in tariff - trade negotiations with the US and aims to reach an agreement by July 9 [7]. - The "Magic Seas" bulk carrier sank in the Red Sea, and the Houthi armed forces claimed responsibility [8]. - The next - possible Fed chair nominee, Wash, advocated for a rate cut and said Trump's tariffs would not cause inflation [10]. - China added 10 billion yuan in central budgetary investment for work - relief projects to promote employment [11]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Goldman Sachs maintained its Q4 2025 Brent crude price forecast at $59 per barrel and 2026 at $56 per barrel, and OPEC + may increase production by 550,000 barrels per day in September [13]. - As of July 7, the MEG port inventory in East China decreased, while the benzene - ethylene port inventory in Jiangsu increased by 12.85% [13]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced the listing benchmark prices for pure benzene futures contracts [13]. Metal Futures - China's central bank increased its gold reserves for the 8th consecutive month in June, reaching 73.9 million ounces [15]. - China's primary aluminum production in June 2025 was 3.6525 million tons, up 2.64% year - on - year and down 2.59% month - on - month [17]. Black - Series Futures - From January to May, China's cumulative coal production was 1.99 billion tons, with May's output hitting a record high [19]. - From June 30 to July 6, global iron ore shipments decreased, while Chinese port arrivals increased [19][20]. - A coal mine in Linfen, Shanxi, resumed production on July 5, but its output was still below normal [19]. - As of July 7, some Tangshan steel enterprises' blast furnaces were under maintenance, affecting iron - water production [20]. Agricultural Product Futures - In June, domestic soybean crushing reached a record high, and it is expected to remain high in July [23]. - As of July 4, domestic feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days increased for the 8th consecutive week [23]. - As of July 4, cotton commercial inventory decreased, while palm oil and soybean oil inventories increased [23][24]. - As of July 7, the national imported soybean port inventory increased [25]. - India's minister called for a change in palm - oil import policy, and Argentina will export soybean meal to China for the first time [26]. - Pakistan's cotton production dropped sharply, hitting the textile industry [28]. - As of July 3, US soybean, corn, and wheat export inspection volumes were reported [28]. - As of July 5, Brazil's first - crop corn harvest rate was 97.2%, and the second - crop was 27.7% [28]. - As of July 6, the US soybean and corn good - rate were reported [28]. Financial Market Finance - A - shares closed mixed, with power and real - estate stocks rising, and innovation - drug and computing - power stocks falling [30]. - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose, and south - bound funds had significant net inflows [30]. - A - shares will launch specialized and innovative indices on July 21 [32]. - Quantitative trading new rules were implemented, impacting some strategies [32]. - Public funds' position - adjustment demand increased, and "discounted - share" private - placement business heated up [32]. - Jiangsu Runyang plans to complete A - share IPO by the end of 2028, and Lens Technology will list in Hong Kong on July 9 [33]. Industry - Four departments plan to have over 100,000 high - power charging facilities by 2027 [35]. - A new national standard for passenger - car braking systems will be implemented in 2026 [35]. - The first 10 science - innovation bond ETFs were fully subscribed on the first day [36]. - As of July 7, Shenzhen's second - hand housing inventory reached a new high [37]. - Wuhan will strengthen real - estate policies and promote project launches [37]. - China's shipping industry showed improved confidence in Q2 [37]. - From January to May, China's textile industry had mixed performance in output, revenue, and exports [37]. - From January to May, China's coal production hit a record high, while imports decreased [38]. - Global new ship orders decreased by 54% year - to - date, with different performances in various ship types [40]. Overseas - The US Treasury Secretary expects to announce multiple trade agreements soon [41]. - Goldman Sachs believes the Fed may cut rates in September, with a lower terminal - rate forecast [41]. - The EU aims to reach a preliminary trade agreement with the US this week [41]. - The European Central Bank warns of increased financial - stability risks in the eurozone [41]. - Eurozone's July investor confidence and May retail sales data were reported [42]. - Germany's May industrial output showed positive growth [43]. - The UK's June housing price index had mixed performance [44]. International Stocks - US stocks closed down, with Trump's tariff announcements causing market fluctuations, while most Chinese concept stocks rose [46]. - European stocks closed mixed, affected by Trump's tariff policies and corporate news [46]. - The FBI warned of a surge in "pump - and - dump" scams targeting US stock investors [46]. Commodities - International oil prices rose, and Goldman Sachs maintained its Brent crude price forecast [47]. - International precious metal futures closed mixed, supported by economic uncertainties [47]. - London base metals closed down, with traditional metals facing demand pressure [49]. Bonds - Domestic bond yields mostly rose slightly, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations [50]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue multiple batches of bonds in July [50]. - US bond yields rose due to Trump's trade policies, and Japanese long - term bonds fell [50][51]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB depreciated against the US dollar, and the US dollar index rose due to Trump's tariff threats [52][54]. Upcoming Events - The China Central Bank has 13.1 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase due at 09:20 [56]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest - rate decision at 12:30 and hold a press conference at 13:30 [56]. - ECB's Nagel will give a speech at 22:00, and the EIA will release its monthly short - term energy outlook at 24:00 [56]. - The 12th World High - Speed Rail Congress will be held from July 8 to 11, and the E - Tang Co., Ltd. will be listed on the STAR Market [56]. - Pure benzene futures and options will be listed on the DCE starting from July 8 [56].