Core Viewpoint - The recent divergence in commodity markets is driven by geopolitical factors, monetary policy expectations, and market sentiment, which presents both opportunities and risks for medium to long-term investors [3][4][5]. Group 1: Oil Market - The rise in crude oil prices is primarily due to tightening sanctions against Russia by the EU and the impending U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies, leading to a decrease in supply [3]. - WTI crude oil has maintained a price above $60, with traders suggesting that it is unlikely to fall below this level unless there is a significant market downturn [3]. - The potential for further price increases exists if new sanctions are announced, indicating a bullish outlook for the medium to long term [3][5]. Group 2: Industrial Metals - The decline in copper and other industrial metals is linked to changing expectations regarding U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with investors cautious ahead of upcoming employment data [4][5]. - Industrial metals are closely tied to economic demand, and concerns about delayed rate cuts have led to increased selling pressure, despite previous supply concerns [4]. - For medium to long-term investors, focusing on metals with strong demand and supply constraints is recommended, particularly after price corrections [5]. Group 3: Gold Market - The increase in gold prices is attributed to heightened risk aversion among investors, particularly in light of stock market volatility [4]. - Gold prices are also influenced by interest rate expectations, and while there may be short-term gains, long-term trends will depend on broader market conditions [4][5]. - It is advised to maintain a portion of gold as a hedge against risk rather than pursuing aggressive trading strategies [5]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors should focus on supply-demand dynamics for oil and industrial metals, particularly in light of geopolitical developments and economic recovery trends [5][6]. - Monitoring U.S. employment reports is crucial for understanding future monetary policy directions, which will impact commodity markets significantly [5][6]. - Practical investment strategies include waiting for price corrections in oil, avoiding panic selling in industrial metals, and maintaining a balanced approach to gold investments [5][6].

行业风格方面，傅静涛展望2026年节奏如下："1.0"阶段已处于高位区域，2026年春季前科技成长至少 还有一波机会，"1.0"至"2.0"的过渡阶段，高股息防御或占优；"2.0"阶段将"周期搭台，成长唱戏"，周 期引领指数突破后，科技产业趋势和制造业全球影响力提升将成主线。三大结构线索值得关注，分别是 复苏交易（基础化工、工业金属等）、科技产业趋势（AI产业链、人形机器人等）和制造业影响力提 升（化工、工程机械等）。 ◎记者 徐蔚 在傅静涛看来，"1.0"阶段可能在2026年春季达到高峰。当前，AI产业趋势还有纵深，但A股AI产业链股 价已处于长期低性价比区域。这神似2014年初的创业板、2018年初的食品饮料和2021年初的新能源。历 史上，通常需经历季度级别的调整，再延续产业趋势行情。 11月18日，申万宏源2026资本市场投资年会举行。申万宏源党委书记、董事长刘健在主论坛致开幕辞， 申万宏源首席经济学家赵伟、A股策略首席分析师傅静涛等围绕2026年中国经济与资本市场走势展开深 度解读，提出"向改革要红利""上涨行情两段论"等核心观点，为明年投资方向勾勒清晰蓝图。 对于"2.0"阶段，傅静涛预测2026 ...

Core Viewpoint - The framework of "policy bottom, market bottom, economic bottom" is expected to return to effectiveness, potentially triggering a "Bull Market 2.0" in the second half of 2026 [2][4] Group 1: Market Outlook - The anticipated bull market may start in the second half of 2026, with a focus on the transition from "Bull Market 1.0" to "Bull Market 2.0" [2][4] - The "policy bottom" is likely to be validated around mid-2026, which could catalyze the start of the new bull market [4] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The current phase of the bull market is characterized by a significant shift in asset allocation towards equities, indicating that the bull market is far from over [3] - The A-share market is expected to see a qualitative change in profit accumulation, leading to improved conditions for incremental capital inflow over time [3] Group 3: Sector Focus - The technology sector is projected to be a key driver in the upcoming bull market, with a focus on areas such as humanoid robots, energy storage, photovoltaics, pharmaceuticals, and military industry [5] - The transition from "Bull Market 1.0" to "Bull Market 2.0" will favor high-dividend defensive stocks initially, followed by cyclical stocks and growth sectors [5] Group 4: Profit Forecast - A-share net profit growth is expected to show significant improvement, with forecasts of 7% and 14% year-on-year growth for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Capital Market Investment Conference held by Shenwan Hongyuan suggests that 2026 will be a year of comprehensive reform and development, with a potential full-scale launch of the A-share market by mid-2026, driven by trends in the technology industry and the enhancement of manufacturing global influence [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Growth and New Drivers - New factors and assets are becoming the new drivers of economic growth, with knowledge, technology, data, computing power, and talent leading the way [2]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to be a critical phase for comprehensive reform, with 2026 marking the acceleration of these reforms [2][3]. - The nominal GDP recovery in 2026 is anticipated to improve corporate profitability, with service demand showing greater elasticity [2]. Group 2: Reform and Opportunities - The focus for 2026 will be on leveraging reforms for dividends, emphasizing systemic and effective reforms, particularly in the implementation of "Artificial Intelligence+" initiatives [3]. - Key areas for reform include the construction of a unified market, development of new productive forces, and reforms in social security and financial systems [3]. Group 3: A-share Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to experience a significant rally by mid-2026, with a potential peak in the spring of 2026 [4]. - Factors supporting this rally include cyclical improvements in fundamentals, strengthening trends in emerging industries, and a shift in resident asset allocation towards equities [4][5]. - Investment focus areas for 2026 include basic chemicals, industrial metals, AI industry chains, and sectors related to manufacturing influence [5].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to reach a cyclical peak in spring 2026, with a comprehensive market rally potentially triggered by the sequential emergence of "policy bottom, market bottom, and economic bottom" around mid-2026 [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - By mid-2026, the supply in midstream manufacturing may clear, leading to a noticeable increase in sectors where capacity growth is lower than demand growth [1] - The upcoming market rally will be supported by improvements in the fundamental cycle, strengthening trends in emerging industries, shifts in resident asset allocation towards equities, and the enhancement of China's global influence [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Before spring 2026, technology growth stocks may experience minor rebounds; from spring to mid-year, high-dividend defensive stocks are expected to outperform [1] - After mid-2026, a "cyclical foundation with growth leading" approach is anticipated, with the "policy bottom" catalyzing cyclical sectors to lead index breakthroughs, while the trends in technology industries and the enhancement of manufacturing global influence will be the main market themes [1] Group 3: Key Investment Themes - Three major structural themes to focus on in 2026 include: 1. Recovery trading sectors such as cyclical Alpha, basic chemicals, and industrial metals 2. Technology industry trend sectors including AI supply chain, humanoid robots, energy storage, photovoltaics, pharmaceuticals, and military industry 3. Sectors related to the enhancement of manufacturing influence, such as chemicals and engineering machinery [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai Securities is optimistic about a comprehensive bull market in the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by macroeconomic and fundamental factors [1] Group 1: Industrial Metals - Several major mines have experienced unexpected disruptions, leading to a significant downward revision of global copper mine output for next year [1] - Supply disruptions in electrolytic aluminum are also frequent due to overseas electricity shortages, while traditional demand is expected to benefit from a global rate-cutting cycle [1] - Although the growth rate of new energy demand is slowing, its proportion continues to rise, and the demand from AI is expected to provide additional growth [1] - Copper and aluminum prices are anticipated to continue rising due to the resonance of macroeconomic and fundamental factors [1] - Despite stock prices being at new highs, this is primarily due to rising commodity prices and the realization of company growth potential, with valuations remaining at a neutral to low level [1] Group 2: Energy Metals - The outlook for energy metals is improving as expectations for energy storage demand continue to rise, significantly improving the supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate next year [1] - Following the implementation of an export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo, cobalt prices have surged, and with supply constraints expected next year, the market is likely to remain tight with bullish price expectations [1] Group 3: Gold Market - The trend of reshaping the dollar credit system is becoming evident against the backdrop of overseas monetary expansion and weakening fiscal discipline, maintaining the long-term bullish logic for gold prices [1] - The performance of gold stocks has significantly lagged behind the continuously rising gold prices, with current stock valuations at historical lows, presenting a favorable opportunity for investment [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining's stock price has experienced fluctuations, with a notable increase of 94.25% year-to-date, but a recent decline of 4.12% over the past five trading days [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 18, Zijin Mining's stock price was 28.40 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 754.80 billion CNY [1] - The stock has seen a trading volume of 29.85 billion CNY, with a turnover rate of 0.51% [1] - Year-to-date, the stock has increased by 94.25%, but has decreased by 4.12% in the last five trading days and 5.49% in the last twenty trading days [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Zijin Mining reported a revenue of 254.20 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.33% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 37.86 billion CNY, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 55.45% [2] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Zijin Mining reached 529,800, an increase of 57.83% from the previous period [2] - The company has distributed a total of 59.28 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 27.77 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3] - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 1.35 billion shares, a decrease of 235 million shares from the previous period [3]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月18日 中国黄金国际（02099.HK） 优于大市 Q3 业绩表现亮眼，公司兼具高业绩弹性及高成长性 公司发布三季报：前三季度实现营收 9.25 亿美元，同比+99.83%；实现归母 净利润 3.41 亿美元，同比扭亏；其中，Q1/Q2/Q3 分别实现归母净利润 0.85/1.15/1.41 亿美元，Q3 环比+22.43%。公司 Q3 利润环比再次实现明显 提升，主要得益于金铜价格上涨以及甲玛矿销售折价系数提升。 核心产品产销量数据方面：公司前三季度实现黄金产量 4.02 吨，实现黄金 销量 4.21 吨。其中长山壕前三季度黄金产量约 2.12 吨，黄金销量约 2.34 吨；甲玛矿前三季度黄金产量约 1.90 吨，黄金销量约 1.87 吨。公司前三季 度实现铜产量 5.41 万吨，实现铜销量 5.33 万吨。公司 2025 年产量指引： 长山壕黄金产量指引约 2.4-2.6 吨；甲玛矿黄金产量指引约 2.15-2.3 吨， 铜产量指引约 6.3-6.7 万吨。全年的维度来看，公司金、铜产量超过指引的 可能性较高。 核心产品成本数据方面：长山壕前三季度黄金单位生产成本1639 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share bull market is far from over, with "Bull Market 1.0" expected to peak in spring 2026, followed by a potential "Bull Market 2.0" in the second half of 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Global competition is intensifying, necessitating a shift in mindset for A-shares to embrace competitive thinking, which will drive market dynamics [1] - The transition of Chinese residents' asset allocation towards equities is still in its early stages, indicating further potential for A-share liquidity improvement [1][2] Group 2: Bull Market Phases - "Bull Market 1.0" is anticipated to reach a peak in spring 2026, with a subsequent transition to "Bull Market 2.0" in the latter half of 2026 [2] - The second phase, "Bull Market 2.0," is expected to be a comprehensive bull market driven by improvements in fundamental cycles, emerging industry trends, and increased global influence of China [2][3] Group 3: Profit Forecasts - Predictions for 2026 indicate two significant milestones: the first effective rebound in profitability for all A-shares in five years and the first double-digit growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in five years [3] - Forecasted year-on-year growth rates for net profit attributable to shareholders are 7% for 2025 and 14% for 2026, with substantial quarterly growth expected [3] Group 4: Sector Trends - The transition from "Bull Market 1.0" to "Bull Market 2.0" will see high-dividend defensive stocks outperforming, while the latter phase will focus on cyclical recovery and growth sectors [3] - Key structural themes for 2026 include recovery trades in cyclical sectors, technology industry trends with opportunities in AI, and enhanced manufacturing influence [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations in early trading, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3949.83 points, down 0.56% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13145.00 points, down 0.43%, and the ChiNext Index closed at 3091.87 points, also down 0.43% [1] Sector Performance Top Performing Sectors - The Internet e-commerce sector led the gains with an increase of 2.70%, achieving a total trading volume of 331.26 million hands and a net inflow of 31.52 billion [2] - The Cultural Media sector rose by 2.25%, with a total trading volume of 3271.69 million hands and a net inflow of 30.33 billion [2] - The Kitchen and Bathroom Appliances sector increased by 1.66%, with a trading volume of 224.39 million hands and a net inflow of 0.65 billion [2] - The IT Services sector saw a rise of 1.64%, with a trading volume of 2398.60 million hands and a net inflow of 21.29 billion [2] Underperforming Sectors - The Battery sector experienced the largest decline at -4.13%, with a trading volume of 2759.67 million hands and a net outflow of 88.07 billion [2] - The Coal Mining and Processing sector fell by 4.08%, with a trading volume of 1622.64 million hands and a net outflow of 30.66 billion [2] - The Steel sector decreased by 3.16%, with a trading volume of 2494.42 million hands and a net outflow of 28.21 billion [2] - The Industrial Metals sector dropped by 2.98%, with a trading volume of 2695.32 million hands and a net outflow of 42.11 billion [2]