2026 年 01 月 28 日 策略周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 宏观资金均衡偏松，ETF 继续大幅净流出 ——流动性周报 1 月第 3 期 最近一年走势 投资要点: 相关报告 变迁？*赵阳》——2026-01-16 《流动性周报 1 月第 1 期：资金需求端缓和，两融 余额创历史新高*赵阳》——2026-01-13 《信用重启与双峰共振——2026 年海外年度策略* 袁野，赵阳》——2026-01-12 1. 本周（2026/01/19-2026/01/23，下同）宏观资金面均衡偏松，央行通 过公开市场操作开展 7 天逆回购净投放 2295 亿元。资金价格方面，短端 利率下行、长端利率下行，且长端下行幅度大于短端，期限利差走窄。 2. 股市资金供给端总体结构分化，权益基金发行显著回升，两融余额仍 在高位震荡。融资净流入较多的行业为有色金属、非银金融等，融资净流 出较多的行业有电子、计算机等。股票 ETF 净流出 3331.17 亿元，宽基 ETF 资金主要流入中证 2000、科创 200 等指数，净流出 ...

- The financing balance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased by 139.05 billion yuan to 26,969.49 billion yuan last week[13][16] - The top five stocks with the highest net financing purchases last week were Ping An Insurance (601318), New Easys (300502), Zijin Mining (601899), Tianfu Communication (300394), and Industrial Bank (601166)[48][50] - The top five stocks with the highest net securities lending sales last week were BYD (002594), Chifeng Gold (600988), BlueFocus (300058), Kweichow Moutai (600519), and Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138)[48][52] - The financing balance of the ETF market was 1142.77 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.40 billion yuan from January 20[43] - The top five ETFs with the highest net financing purchases were Huaxia SSE 50ETF, Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300ETF, GF CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF, Huaan Gold ETF, and Harvest CSI 300ETF[45][46]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of January 27, the latest market financing balance is 27,059.04 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 2.12 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with 17 industries experiencing an increase in financing balance, while 14 industries saw a decrease [1]. Industry Financing Balance Changes - The communication industry had the highest increase in financing balance, rising by 1.11 billion yuan to a total of 1,339.67 billion yuan [1]. - Other industries with notable increases include: - Pharmaceutical and biological: increased by 0.44 billion yuan to 1,696.03 billion yuan - Non-ferrous metals: increased by 0.41 billion yuan to 1,494.54 billion yuan - Public utilities: increased by 0.29 billion yuan to 569.69 billion yuan [1]. - Conversely, the following industries experienced significant decreases in financing balance: - Machinery and equipment: decreased by 1.70 billion yuan to 1,418.93 billion yuan - Automotive: decreased by 0.96 billion yuan to 1,242.31 billion yuan - National defense and military: decreased by 0.68 billion yuan to 1,040.47 billion yuan [2]. Percentage Changes in Financing Balance - The coal industry recorded the highest percentage increase in financing balance at 1.09%, totaling 149.82 billion yuan [1]. - Other industries with notable percentage increases include: - Communication: 0.84% - Steel: 0.79% - Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery: 0.59% [1]. - Industries with the largest percentage decreases include: - Machinery and equipment: decreased by 1.19% - Comprehensive: decreased by 1.10% - Oil and petrochemicals: decreased by 0.89% [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the end of Q4 2025, the total number of active bond - type funds (excluding amortized cost method funds) was 3,399, a 1.5% increase from the previous quarter, and the fund scale was 7.80 trillion yuan, a 1.6% increase [2][5][7]. - In Q4 2025, 93 active bond - type funds were issued, 18 more than the previous quarter, a 24.0% increase. The total issuance scale was 62.49 billion yuan, a 24% increase [2][9][10]. - In Q4 2025, the performance of medium - and long - term pure bond funds was better than that of short - term pure bond funds. Affected by the equity market, the performance of secondary bond funds was slightly weaker [2][14][16]. - Different types of active bond funds had different changes in leverage, duration, and asset allocation. For example, medium - and long - term pure bond funds' heavy - position bond duration decreased, while short - term bond funds' leverage ratio slightly increased [2][19][34]. - The mixed secondary bond funds reduced their stock positions and increased their holdings in non - banking finance and communication sectors [2][54][61]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Active Bond - type Fund Scale and Issuance - **Scale Change**: The total number of active bond - type funds increased by 1.5% to 3,399. The scale increased by 1.6% to 7.80 trillion yuan. The number of medium - and long - term pure bond funds, short - term pure bond funds, and mixed secondary bond funds increased by 0.6%, 0.6%, and 5.8% respectively, while the number of mixed primary bond funds decreased by 0.2%. The scale of medium - and long - term pure bond funds and mixed primary bond funds decreased by 4.0% and 2.1% respectively, and the scale of short - term pure bond funds and mixed secondary bond funds increased by 6.2% and 19.7% respectively [2][5][7]. - **Fund Issuance**: In Q4 2025, 93 active bond - type funds were issued, an increase of 18 from the previous quarter. Among them, 52 were mixed secondary bond funds. The total issuance scale was 62.49 billion yuan, a 24% increase. The issuance scale of medium - and long - term pure bond funds and mixed primary bond funds decreased by 21.0% and 79.9% respectively, while the issuance scale of mixed secondary bond funds increased by 117.2% [2][9][10]. 3.2 Active Bond - type Fund Performance - **Performance of Pure Bond Funds**: In Q4 2025, the yields of medium - and long - term pure bond funds were better than those of short - term pure bond funds. The yields of short - term and medium - and long - term pure bond fund indexes were 0.47% and 0.54% respectively [2][14]. - **Performance of Secondary Bond Funds**: Affected by the equity market, the performance of secondary bond funds was slightly weaker. The yields of mixed primary and secondary bond fund indexes were 0.55% and 0.38% respectively, and the maximum drawdowns were - 0.51% and - 1.04% respectively [2][16]. 3.3 Active Bond Fund Position Analysis - **Medium - and Long - term Pure Bond Funds**: The leverage ratio of closed - end medium - and long - term pure bond funds increased, while that of open - end ones decreased. The bond position of closed - end funds increased, while that of open - end funds decreased. Closed - end funds increased their holdings of credit bonds and reduced their holdings of interest - rate bonds, and vice versa for open - end funds. Both types of funds reduced their holdings of financial bonds. The weighted duration of the top five heavy - position bonds of both types of funds decreased [19][22][31]. - **Short - term Bond Funds**: The median leverage ratio increased by 1.5pct to 110.1%. The median bond position increased by 1.2pct to 106.7%. They reduced their holdings of credit bonds and increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds, and the median financial bond position increased by 2.1pct. The weighted duration of the top five heavy - position bonds increased slightly by 0.01 year [34][36][40]. - **Mixed Primary Bond Funds**: The median leverage ratio and bond position increased by 3.1pct and 4.1pct respectively. They increased their holdings of credit and interest - rate bonds, the median financial bond position increased slightly, the median convertible bond position increased by 0.64pct, and the weighted duration of the top five heavy - position bonds decreased by 0.21 year [42][45][49]. - **Mixed Secondary Bond Funds**: The median leverage ratio decreased slightly by 0.3pct to 107.5%. The stock position decreased by 0.80pct to 13.85%, and the bond position increased by 0.40pct to 87.85%. The median convertible bond position decreased by 0.97pct. The weighted duration of the top five heavy - position bonds decreased by 0.08 year. They increased their holdings in non - banking finance, communication, and non - ferrous metals sectors, and reduced their holdings in pharmaceutical biology, media, and electronics sectors. Zijin Mining was the largest heavy - position stock, and the heavy - position holding scale of Zijin Mining, Zhongji Innolight, and Ping An of China increased by more than 2 billion yuan [51][54][64].

上周A股市场呈现结构性分化格局，宽基指数涨跌不一，资金偏好显著向中小盘、热门成长赛道倾斜。 行业上，建筑材料、地产、军工转强，化工、有色行情强化，银行、非银与通信指数回落。 近期中央汇金大额减持ETF稳定了权重指数，价值股走势偏弱，但市场交易热度不减，科技成长方向加 速轮动，实现了稳指数又不打压市场热度。 我们认为，资本市场监管越严格、审慎，反而有助于提高中国市场的可投资性，也更有助于中国资本市 场走的更长远，利于更多投资人分享转型发展与改革红利。无风险收益下沉、资本市场改革、经济结构 转型仍是构成转型行情的三大关键动力。 投资方向上，新兴科技是主线，价值股也有春天，关注细分龙头与A500指数。具体来看：1）科技成长 方向：全球AI算力需求仍处于需求旺盛上升期，推动半导体设备需求快速增长，全产业链迎来涨价 潮，可关注港股互联网/电子半导体/通信/军工，以及具备全球竞争优势的制造业出海（电力设备/机械 设备/汽车及零部件）等。2）非银金融方向：受益居民存款搬家与财富管理需求增长，资本市场改革提 振市场风险偏好，可关注保险/券商等。3）顺周期方向：估值与持仓处于低位，景气底部边际改善，受 益扩内需政策部署，可关注 ...

Core Viewpoint - Current active funds are significantly underweight in the non-bank sector, indicating a potential opportunity for investment as the capital market remains active and reforms deepen [1] Group 1 - Active funds have a notable underallocation to the non-bank sector, suggesting a mispricing that could be corrected as market conditions improve [1] - The ongoing activity in the capital market, along with the deepening of reforms, is expected to attract more medium to long-term capital into the market [1] - There is an increasing trend of residents allocating more to equity investments, which bodes well for the non-bank financial sector [1] Group 2 - The non-bank financial sector is viewed positively for its beta characteristics, making it an attractive option for investors looking for growth [1]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 27 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：科技归来 [Table_Title2] [Table_Summary] 1 月 27 日， 股市低开高走，科技板块重新升温，上证指数几经周折，尾盘再度收于 4140 点，资金经历短期 纠结后，继续涌向双创领域，科创综指、创业板指单日上涨 1.72%、0.71%。"股债跷跷板"效应成为日内债市 定价主导变量，风险偏好小幅提振的背景下，债市收益率普遍上行。 权益市场缩量上涨。万得全 A上涨 0.14%，全天成交额 2.92 万亿元，较昨日（1 月 26 日）缩量 3592 亿 元。港股方面，恒生指数上涨 1.35%，恒生科技上涨 0.50%。南向资金净流出 6.35 亿港元，其中中国移动和紫金 矿业分别净流出 11.47 亿港元和 8.43 亿港元，而腾讯控股净流入 10.24 亿港元。 指数呈现 V 型走势。早盘 4000+只股票下跌，万得全 A 跌幅一度达 1.40%。不过前期在窄幅震荡区间聚集的 筹码，支撑指数从负转正。正如我们在《暗流涌动》中提及，这部分筹码在牛市延续的共识下进 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates a slight decrease in the total share of active equity funds, with a total of 26,662.1 billion, reflecting a reduction of 727.8 billion from the previous quarter, although the rate of decline has narrowed [7][8] - The performance of active equity funds in Q4 showed a slight retreat, with the active stock index down by 3.04% and underperforming the CSI 300 by nearly 3 percentage points [12][13] - The allocation to cyclical sectors has increased, with significant additions in materials, chemicals, and oil sectors, while technology and consumer sectors have seen a reduction in allocation [24][20] Group 2 - Fund managers are optimistic about the market outlook for Q1 2026, expecting a continuation of a "slow bull" market supported by economic recovery, liquidity easing, and policy support [28][24] - The report highlights a focus on sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and renewable energy, indicating a shift towards balanced growth and value stocks complementing growth stocks [28][24] - The top holdings in active equity funds include Zhongji Xuchuang, with significant increases in positions in China Ping An, Meituan, and Dongshan Precision [28][24]

Core Insights - The market pricing logic is shifting from short-term emotional speculation back to long-term industrial cycles, with a focus on deep safety margins and a contrarian approach in sectors like chemicals, finance, and traditional cycles [1][12] - The strategy is characterized by a deep value defense combined with a contrarian offensive, essentially acting as a high-probability call option on the recovery of the Chinese economy and the style switch in A-shares [1][12] Strategy Positioning: Resilient Bottom Position in a Bull Market - In a mid-bull market with extreme valuation differentiation, the report emphasizes avoiding popular bubble sectors and instead focuses on left-side pricing during industry headwinds [2][13] - The representative product has a maximum drawdown of only 10.8%, outperforming the 15.66% drawdown of the CSI 300 index during the same period [2][13] - The fund manager's commitment to a balanced value strategy is highlighted as a rare approach in a market characterized by high beta and significant intraday volatility [2][13] Investment Framework: High Probability Mean Reversion - The investment framework is based on capturing upward elastic opportunities during market downturns, with a focus on buying at cyclical bottoms [3][17] - The strategy emphasizes maintaining a core position in basic chemicals and consumer staples while tactically increasing exposure to non-bank financials to capitalize on bull market rebounds [18][20] - The report outlines a three-dimensional investment approach: maintaining core holdings in strong industries, tactical offensives in financials, and defensive measures through high-dividend, low-volatility assets [18][20] Portfolio Analysis: Asymmetric Risk-Return Structure - The portfolio exhibits a significant asymmetric risk-return profile, with a solid bottom and upward elasticity [21][23] - The longest-managed product, Yongying Huize, operates with a low turnover rate of 1.69 and a high position of 90%, effectively managing drawdowns while maintaining long-term returns [21][23] - The report notes that the maximum drawdown was effectively controlled at around 6% despite market challenges, reflecting a strong risk management strategy [21][23] Market Outlook and Allocation Strategy: Aligning with Macro Trends - The report identifies four key macroeconomic themes: optimizing supply structures through anti-involution policies, leveraging central government leverage to stabilize asset values, and stimulating consumption and fertility to unlock domestic demand [34][35] - The anticipated global liquidity and PPI upturn in 2026 are expected to support resource revaluation and corporate profit cycles, particularly benefiting sectors like food and beverage, chemicals, and electronics [35][38] - The investment strategy is expected to perform well in 2026, focusing on cyclical and domestic demand assets that are at a dual inflection point of profitability and valuation [42][43]

1月27日，A股市场整体上涨。 截至收盘，上证指数收报4139.9点，上涨0.18%；深证成指收报14329.91点，上涨0.09%；创业板指收报3342.6点，上涨0.71%。两市合计成交 28949.81亿元，较上一交易日减少3532.21亿元。 1. 两市主力资金净流出超410亿元 今日沪深两市主力资金开盘净流出373.34亿元，尾盘净流入41.39亿元，两市全天主力资金净流出414.34亿元。 | | | 沪深两市最近五个交易日主力资金流向情况 (亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 | 尾盘净流入 | 超大单净买入 | | 2026- 1- 27 | - 414. 34 | -373. 34 | 41. 39 | - 173. 55 | | 2026- 1- 26 | - 757. 10 | -324. 59 | - 15. 61 | - 496. 92 | | 2026- 1-23 | - 41. 67 | - 83. 56 | 58. 37 | 119. 93 | | 2026- 1- 22 | - 104. ...