Report Information - Report Date: May 15, 2025 [2] - Report Issuer: Shenyin Wanguo Futures Co., Ltd. [2] Industry Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. Core Views - For stock index futures, it is advisable to take a predominantly bullish stance, while for stock index options, a long straddle strategy can be used to capture the trending market after the direction is determined [2][8] - The price of Treasury bond futures has declined, and short - term fluctuations may increase [9] - The natural rubber market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [10] - The short - term outlook for methanol is bullish [12] - Glass and soda ash are in a cycle of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to their supply - demand digestion process and the impact of the overall commodity market on the real estate chain [13] - After a phased rebound, polyolefins may enter a high - level oscillatory consolidation phase in the future [14] - The fundamentals of coking coal continue to deteriorate, and for coke, there are expectations of a price cut [15] - Gold has entered a correction phase, and silver lacks upward momentum [17] - Copper and zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short term [18][19] - Shanghai aluminum is expected to be in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state, while nickel may follow the non - ferrous metal sector and show a slightly bullish and oscillatory trend [20][22] - The overall price of edible oils has declined, while protein meals are in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state [23][24] - Corn and corn starch may enter an oscillatory phase in the short term, and cotton is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [25][27] - The freight rate of the European container shipping line may increase, and the 08 contract is expected to remain strong [28] Summary by Directory 1. Main News Concerns of the Day International News - Oil prices dropped on Thursday due to expectations of a possible US - Iran nuclear agreement and an unexpected increase in US crude inventories last week [5] Domestic News - The CSRC will launch a new round of capital market reforms and introduce a package of policies to deepen the reforms of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [5] Industry News - In early May 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased compared to the previous period, with different trends in various regions [6] 2. Closing Comments on Major Varieties Financial Futures - Stock index futures declined, but short - term positive factors are present, and the valuation of major domestic indices is low [2][8] - Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance, and short - term fluctuations may intensify due to various factors such as the progress of Sino - US talks and economic data [9] Energy and Chemical - Rubber prices declined, and the market is expected to be in a weak and oscillatory state due to factors such as the progress of the harvest season and inventory [10] - Crude oil prices dropped, and attention should be paid to the impact of low oil prices on US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran [2][11] - Methanol prices decreased slightly, but the short - term outlook is bullish [12] - Glass and soda ash futures are in a consolidation phase, and attention should be paid to their supply - demand digestion and the impact of the overall market [13] - Polyolefins are in a consolidation phase, and after a phased rebound, they may enter a high - level oscillatory consolidation phase [14] Black Metals - Coking coal and coke prices are affected by macro - favorable factors, but the fundamentals of coking coal are deteriorating, and coke prices may face a cut [15] Metals - Gold and silver prices declined, and they are in a correction phase [17] - Copper, zinc, and other metal prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff negotiations and exchange rates [18][19] - Shanghai aluminum prices rose slightly, and it is expected to be in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state [20] - Nickel prices declined slightly, but it may follow the non - ferrous metal sector and show a slightly bullish and oscillatory trend [22] Agricultural Products - Edible oil prices declined due to factors such as the extension of the US clean fuel tax credit policy and the MPOB report [23] - Protein meal prices are in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state due to factors such as the USDA report and Sino - US talks [24] - Corn and corn starch prices may enter an oscillatory phase in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as imports and demand [25] - Cotton prices are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as new orders [27] Shipping Index - The European container shipping line showed a strong performance, and the 08 contract is expected to remain strong due to factors such as the easing of Sino - US tariff frictions [28] 3. Daily Views on Varieties The report provides a summary of the views on various varieties, including bullish, bearish, and neutral stances [29] 4. Daily Price Changes of Major Varieties The report presents the latest closing prices, price fluctuations, trading volumes, open interests, and other data of various varieties [30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices continue to decline, reaching a low of $3120 per ounce, the lowest since April 10, despite a weak US dollar and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [2] - The immediate trigger for the drop in gold prices is the easing of global trade tensions, which has led to a temporary improvement in risk sentiment and stable monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [2] - Current gold prices are at a critical support level, with potential for a rapid decline to $3100 or lower if upcoming US PPI data and comments from Powell are hawkish [2] Group 2 - After breaking below the key support level of $3200, gold has also fallen below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a clear bearish signal [3] - Technical indicators such as MACD and KDJ show increasing bearish momentum, while RSI has entered negative territory, suggesting that downward momentum is not yet over [3] - If gold fails to hold the $3100 support level, the next target could be $3075 [4] Group 3 - In the crude oil market, prices opened at $63.63 and experienced fluctuations, ultimately closing at $62.86, indicating a bearish trend [5] - The analysis suggests a target range for oil prices between $61.0 and $60.7, with a stop loss set at $62.4 [5]

IL期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月15日 Z0020680 苗扬 期货收盘价 | 品种 | 5月14日 | 5月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01合约 | 1814 | 1798 | 16 | 0.89% | 元/吨 | | 05合约 | 1900 | 1930 | -30 | -1.55% | | | 09合约 | 1886 | 1897 | =11 | -0.58% | | | 甲醇主力合约 Hm = A / L / A 3 / | 2365 | 2291 | 74 | 3.23% | | 期货合约价差 | 价差 | 5月14日 | 5月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01合约-05合约 | -86 | -132 | 46 | 34.85% | | | 05合约-09合约 | 14 | 33 | -19 | -57.58% | | | 09合约-01合约 | 72 | дд | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The domestic market sentiment continues to warm up, and the risk appetite continues to rise. Overseas, the US is close to reaching a trade tariff agreement with Japan, South Korea, and India, and the US dollar index rebounds from a low level. Domestically, China's credit and financing data in April were lower than expected, but exports far exceeded expectations, and the implementation of the policy of significantly reducing tariffs between China and the US has boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the US is close to reaching a trade tariff agreement with Japan, South Korea, and India, and the US does not seek a weaker dollar in tariff negotiations, leading to a rebound of the US dollar index from a low level. Domestically, China's credit and financing data in April were lower than expected, indicating weakening domestic demand, but exports far exceeded expectations, and the implementation of the policy of significantly reducing tariffs between China and the US has weakened the impact of US trade policy on the domestic economy and boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term. The RMB exchange rate and domestic stock market continue to strengthen. For assets, the stock index rebounds with short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the treasury bond corrects with short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see; among commodity sectors, the black metals fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; non - ferrous metals fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; energy and chemicals rebound with short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; precious metals fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as insurance, port shipping, and securities, the domestic stock market continues to rise. Fundamentally, China's credit and financing data in April were lower than expected, but exports far exceeded expectations, and the implementation of the tariff reduction policy between China and the US has boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [4]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market continued to decline overnight. The main contract of COMEX gold futures fell below the $3200/ounce mark, and the main contract of Shanghai gold fell more than 2% to 748 yuan/gram. Weaker - than - expected US inflation data supported the US dollar. The release of the China - US Geneva Joint Statement eased trade tensions, and the global risk - aversion sentiment significantly cooled down. The US dollar stabilized and rebounded, and the continuous strength of the US stock market suppressed the rise of gold. Gold is under short - term pressure, but the weakening of the US dollar's credit margin provides structural support for the gold price, and the value of gold allocation remains. For silver, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [4][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Wednesday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded significantly, and the market trading volume was at a low level. The substantial progress in the Sino - US tariff issue and the lower - than - expected US CPI data in April increased market risk appetite. Fundamentally, the construction steel inventory of Steel Valley Network continued to decline by 270,000 tons, and the apparent consumption increased slightly. It is currently the off - season for steel demand, and the demand decline trend may continue. In terms of supply, steel mills' profits are considerable, and the daily output of hot metal is at a high level this year, but the output of finished products has decreased recently. In the off - season, the subsequent demand may not be sufficient to support the current high output. It is advisable to view the short - term steel market with an interval - oscillation idea [6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded significantly. Steel mills' profits are considerable, and the hot - metal output is at a high level in the short term, but it is likely to decline in the future, and there are significant differences in the market regarding the decline path. In terms of supply, the iron - ore shipment volume decreased by 215,000 tons month - on - month, and the arrival volume decreased by 951,000 tons month - on - month. Considering that the second quarter is the traditional peak season for iron - ore shipments, the shipment and arrival volumes will increase later. The port inventory increased by 1.41 million tons on Monday compared with last Friday. The iron - ore price is expected to be strong in the short term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot price of silicon iron remained flat, and the spot price of silicon manganese rebounded slightly. The output of construction steel and hot - rolled coils of Steel Valley Network continued to decline, and the demand for ferroalloys remained weak. The supply of silicon iron also continued to decline. The short - term price of ferroalloys is expected to oscillate within an interval [7][8]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: EIA data shows that the US crude - oil inventory increased by 3.45 million barrels last week, the largest increase since March. Tensions over the Iranian nuclear issue may increase oil - price volatility. The oil price may be in a correction phase recently, and the 50 - day moving average will form resistance at around $63.9 [9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price remains stable at a high level following the oil price, and the overall supply is at a low level. The downstream demand has been boosted to some extent recently, and the inventory transfer from factories to society is smooth, with signs of inventory reduction in social warehouses. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following the crude oil in the short term [9]. - **PX**: After the increase of the crude - oil center, the PX outer - market price remains at around $840. With more PX maintenance and the increase of PTA price, PX rises in resonance with the polyester chain. The PX supply will be tighter later, and it will remain strongly oscillating in the short term [9]. - **PTA**: The basis first rose and then fell. The downstream leading manufacturers' statement of joint production cuts may hit the PTA demand. The PTA price has risen too fast recently, and the downstream production and sales have diverged. It is likely to have a phased correction, and then wait for the stabilization of the crude - oil price and the improvement of the terminal situation [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol has risen significantly due to the early maintenance of large plants, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. It may start the de - stocking channel, but it may have a phased correction in the short term due to downstream production cuts [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The polyester price remains oscillating at a high level following the crude - oil price, and the short - fiber price has rebounded significantly. The short - fiber will continue to be strong in the short term [10]. - **Methanol**: The methanol in Jiangsu Taicang continues to be strong. The overall basis weakens, and the supply pressure is prominent. The price may be repaired in the short term but has downward space in the medium and long term [11]. - **PP**: The domestic PP market price oscillates upward. The production has reached a historical high, the downstream demand is weak, and the fundamental situation has weakened marginally. The LP spread is expected to strengthen in the short term [12]. - **LLDPE**: The PE market price rises. The overall maintenance of PE devices is expected to exceed expectations, and the inventory has decreased. The PE price is expected to be repaired in the short term [12]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price has been raised. The domestic supply is high, and the export policy has boosted the price. It is oscillating strongly in the short term, but the upward driving force of the market is insufficient without more favorable policies [13]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: In April, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased significantly. The copper - ore processing fee has declined recently, and the decline rate has slowed down. It is about to enter the off - season for demand, and the reduction of Sino - US tariffs will boost the demand. The copper price oscillates in the short term, and it is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities in the medium term [14][15]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum rose significantly today, driven by the overall commodity - rising atmosphere. After the emotional digestion, it is advisable to try short - selling [15]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is expected to increase, and the demand is about to enter the off - season, with weak marginal demand. The tin price oscillates in the short term, and the news of the resumption of production in Wa State and the risk of weakening demand pressure the price [15].

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 15 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 数据来源：wind,建信期货研究发展部 API 数据显示，美国原油库存增长 428 万桶，但成品油库存回落明显，叠加 宏观预 ...

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that electric vehicle (EV) sales may account for one-quarter of global car sales this year [1] Group 1: Electric Vehicle Market Projections - Electric vehicles replaced approximately 1.3 million barrels per day of crude oil production last year, with current global crude oil production at about 100 million barrels per day [1] - By 2030, under current policies, the IEA forecasts that this figure could reach 5 million barrels per day, which is considered the agency's most conservative estimate [1] - The IEA currently expects that by 2030, electric vehicles will represent 20% of the light vehicle market, which includes cars, vans, SUVs, and pickups, a figure that is less than half of the IEA's previous analysis from last year [1]

Group 1: Investment Ratings and General Market Outlook - No explicit report industry investment rating provided [1] - The core view is that various commodities show different trends based on factors such as national policies, trade negotiation results, and supply - demand fundamentals. Market sentiment has been affected by factors like China - US trade talks and inflation data [1] Group 2: Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Since April, with the support of national policies and Central Huijin's funds, the stock index has recovered the technical gap formed by the tariff shock on April 2. The current risk - return ratio of chasing the rise is not high. Holders of long positions can consider reducing positions on rallies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: Short - term market risk appetite has recovered, and the gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1] - **Silver**: Overall, it follows gold, but an unexpected tariff result will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term resilience of the silver price may be stronger than that of gold [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: The result of China - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and short - term market sentiment has improved. However, the copper price has significantly rebounded and may fluctuate [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The aluminum electrolysis industry has no obvious contradictions. With the unexpected result of China - US trade negotiations, the aluminum price continues to rebound. Supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, and the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved. The short - term price may further rebound [1] - **Zinc**: Although the macro sentiment has improved, the terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and with the inflow of imported goods, the zinc price remains weak [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: US inflation has cooled more than expected, and the result of China - US talks has exceeded market expectations. The export order expectation of terminals has improved, and market risk appetite is expected to recover. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and the premium of nickel ore is high. There are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines, but the implementation is difficult. The nickel price fluctuates in the short term, and there is still pressure from the surplus of primary nickel in the medium - to - long term. The short - term stainless steel futures fluctuate and rebound, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Tin**: With the unexpected result of China - US talks and improved macro sentiment, the tin price is expected to rebound. The resumption of production in Wa State needs to be continuously monitored [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, it has entered the low - valuation range, demand has not improved, inventory pressure has not been relieved, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, the first delivery is approaching, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream raw material inventory is at a high level, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] Group 4: Ferrous Metals Sector - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The trade turmoil has intensified the pressure on the export chain. The short - term risk appetite is slightly poor, and the opening price dives downward [1] - **Iron Ore**: The tariff policy affects market sentiment, and the iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is still an expectation of decline under the expectation of manganese ore surplus, and the variety has heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand situation has become tight [1] - **Glass**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. With the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price continues to be weak [1] - **Soda Ash**: There are many overhauls in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is medium - term supply surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus and are short - positioned in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunities of cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedging when the market rebounds to a premium. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: The rise in crude oil will drive the rebound of palm oil, and the China - US talks will drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to short after the crude oil price falls [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China - US talks are expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil sentiment in the short term, dragging down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting stage. The China - Canada relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it is expected to cause a large decline. Consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream finished products. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [1] - **Sugar**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Supply Company, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 663.4 million tons, a 2% decline from the previous year. The sugar production is expected to reach a record 4.59 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year. If the crude oil price continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season and lead to an unexpected increase in sugar production [1] - **Corn**: The overall situation of deep - processing in the Northeast has stabilized, the decline in Shandong's deep - processing has slowed down. The import corn auction policy and China - US economic and trade talks have a negative impact on sentiment. The market回调 in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the C07 - C01 calendar spread arbitrage [1] - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market continues to digest the negative factors of spot pressure and Brazilian selling pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the unexpected China - US trade negotiation on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Logs**: The arrival volume of logs remains high, the overall inventory is high, and the price of terminal products has declined. There is no short - term positive factor, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - **Pigs**: With the continuous repair of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase. The market expectation is obvious, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and there are no bright spots in the downstream [1] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil - Related (Fuel Oil, Palm Oil)**: The result of China - US trade negotiations far exceeds market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. After a sharp decline, there is a demand for rebound and repair [1] - **BR Rubber**: The result of China - US trade negotiations is unexpected. In the short term, the raw material cost support is strengthened due to rainfall in the production area. In the medium - to - long term, the fundamentals are loose, and demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline [1] - **PTA, Short - Fiber, and Related Products**: The upstream PX device is under intensive maintenance, and the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The demand for PTA is supported by the high load of polyester. The PTA shortage strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high basis [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based devices have started to be overhauled [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The improvement of China - US tariff policies stimulates market speculative demand, the pure benzene price gradually strengthens, the profit of the reforming device declines, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1] - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens, the trading volume is average. In the short term, the methanol price fluctuates in a range and is slightly strong. In the medium - to - long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] - **PE, PP, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: For PE, the basis strengthens, and the trading volume is general. It fluctuates slightly strongly in the short term and may change from strong to weak in the medium - to - long term. For PP, some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, demand is stable, and it fluctuates slightly strongly with macro - positive factors. For PVC, the fundamentals are weak, and it rebounds in the short term with macro - positive factors. For caustic soda, the spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]

原油产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月14日 宙 扬 Z0020680 | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 5月14日 | 2月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 車位 | | Brent | 66.53 | 66.63 | -0.10 | -0.15% | | | WTI | 63.59 | 63.67 | -0.08 | -0.13% | 美元/桶 | | SC | 491.00 | 482.80 | 8.20 | 1.70% | 元/桶 | | Brent M1-M3 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | WTI M1-M3 | 0.95 | 0.93 | 0.02 | 2.15% | 美元/桶 | | SC M1-M3 | 12.20 | 12.90 | -0.70 | -5.43% | 元/桶 | | Brent-WTI | 2.94 | 2.96 | -0.02 | -0.68% | | | EFS | 1.15 | 1.11 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2507 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term outlook of oscillation, a medium - term outlook of oscillation and weakening, and an intraday outlook of oscillation and strengthening [1][5]. - Due to OPEC+ accelerating production increase in June and the steady growth of US shale oil production, the expectation of oil market supply surplus has increased. However, as the crude oil consumption peak season approaches in mid - May, demand factors may gradually strengthen, and the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations has boosted market risk appetite. The domestic crude oil futures price rose 1.92% to 482.5 yuan/barrel on Tuesday night, and the 2507 contract is expected to maintain an oscillation and strengthening trend on Wednesday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Time - period Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The short - term view of the crude oil 2507 contract is oscillation [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of the crude oil 2507 contract is oscillation and weakening [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of the crude oil 2507 contract is oscillation and strengthening [1][5]. 3.2 Price Calculation and Fluctuation Definition - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, the starting price is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline between 0 - 1% is oscillation and weakening, an increase between 0 - 1% is oscillation and strengthening, and an increase greater than 1% is a rise [3]. - Oscillation and strengthening/weakening are only applicable to intraday views, not for short - term and medium - term views [4]. 3.3 Market Driving Logic - Supply side: OPEC+ is accelerating production increase in June, and US shale oil production is growing steadily, increasing the expectation of oil market supply surplus [5]. - Demand side: As the crude oil consumption peak season approaches in mid - May, demand factors may strengthen, providing support for crude oil futures prices [5]. - Macro factor: The progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations has boosted market risk appetite, leading to a 1.92% increase in domestic crude oil futures prices on Tuesday night [5].

Group 1: SoftBank Group Performance - SoftBank Group reported a net profit of 517.18 billion yen for Q4, driven by strong demand in the artificial intelligence sector [8] - For the full year 2024, SoftBank's net profit reached 1.15 trillion yen, a significant recovery from a loss of 227.65 billion yen in the previous year [8] - The strong quarterly profit was attributed to increased valuations of startups and sales from its chip subsidiary, bolstered by robust data center investment plans [8] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.3% year-on-year in April, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, reversing the previous month's decline [2] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 2.8% year-on-year, indicating a lower inflation rate than market expectations [2] - Analysts suggest that the data reflects ongoing inventory digestion by businesses and uncertainty in consumer economic expectations [3] Group 3: Automotive Market Trends - The average price of new cars in the U.S. reached $48,699 in April, marking a 2.5% month-on-month increase, the second-largest monthly rise in nearly a decade [4] - The increase in new car prices is linked to the effects of tariffs, with consumer panic buying driven by expectations of future price hikes [4] - Decreasing dealer inventories suggest that car prices may continue to rise in the coming months, posing challenges for both consumers and manufacturers [4] Group 4: Google Antitrust Issues - Google faces claims from dozens of comparison shopping websites in the EU, amounting to at least €12 billion, alleging that it misappropriated their customers [5] - These lawsuits stem from a 2017 EU ruling that fined Google €2.4 billion for abusing its market dominance, leading to ongoing legal challenges [5] - If the plaintiffs succeed, it could significantly impact Google's financial burden and provoke further legal actions from other companies [5][6] Group 5: Oil Market Outlook - Recent reports indicate that global oil demand has been weaker than expected, with inventories continuing to accumulate, raising concerns about a potential supply surplus by 2025-2026 [7] - Major investment firms have downgraded their oil price forecasts due to the ongoing supply-demand imbalance, despite some recovery in global economic activity [7] - The future trajectory of oil prices will depend on global economic conditions and OPEC+ production decisions [7][8]