交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢周报（1.26-1.30） 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 观点和策略 2 基本面 3 技术分析 4 产业链梳理总结 一、观点和策略 沪镍观点：本周镍价震荡走弱，周五更是随着金银铜等大幅回落，现货整体成交一般。供 应方面，前期减产的产能开始恢复生产，进口货源陆续到货，印尼寒锐镍板也有大量提供， 市场供应充足。产业链上，镍矿看涨情绪较浓重，菲律宾与印尼都有强支撑。镍铁价格继 续上涨，成本线上升。不锈钢库存开始回升，要注意库存回升之后不锈钢价格或有反转。 精炼镍库存持续高位，过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振有限。 1、产业链周度价格变化 2、镍矿市场状况分析 3、电解镍市场状况分析 4、镍铁市场状况分析 5、不锈钢市场状况分析 6、新能源汽车产销情 ...

长江期货粕类油脂月报 2026-02-02 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 豆粕：利多驱动匮乏，豆粕区间运行 02 油脂：宏观及资金离场扰动，高位波 动加剧 01 01 豆粕：利多驱动匮乏，豆粕区间运行 资料来源：同花顺 USDA 长江期货饲料养殖中心 ◆ 期现端：截止1月30日，华东现货报价3060元/吨，月度报价上涨10元/吨；M2605合约收盘至2762元/吨，月度下跌5元/吨；基差报价05+300元 /吨，基差报价上涨20元/吨。月度美豆围绕区间【1030，1100】美分区间波动为主，生柴及成本支撑美豆底部，但销售压力及供需宽松限制美 豆上方空间，区间震荡为主；豆粕05合约围绕【2700，2800】区间波动，进口成本支撑下方价格，但4月后国内到港宽松以及巴西大豆进口成 本下降，限制涨幅，跟随美豆区间波动为主。 ◆ 供应端：月度美豆单产维持53蒲/英亩，但需求不足下美豆库销比上移；巴西进入收割阶段，丰产预期较强，但巴西南部及阿根廷面临阶段性高 温干 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, geopolitical concerns supported the price of fuel oil to fluctuate upward. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,894 yuan/ton, up 9.50% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,356 yuan/ton, up 7.70% for the week [5] - The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil remained stable, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market was running strongly. High freight is suppressing the arbitrage economy of transporting from Europe to Asia, and the demand for marine fuel usually rebounds before the Lunar New Year, providing support to the market. The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure in Asia has strengthened due to strong downstream demand, and the overall supply is still sufficient. There are uncertainties in supply and trade flows [5] - Crude oil prices may continue to rise, and it is expected that fuel oil prices will continue to fluctuate upward following the market. For operation, the short - term range for high - sulfur fuel oil is 2,750 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and for low - sulfur fuel oil is 3,250 - 3,450 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Views - Geopolitical concerns supported fuel oil prices to rise last week. High - sulfur fuel oil had a weekly increase of 9.50% to 2,894 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil had a 7.70% weekly increase to 3,356 yuan/ton. The low - sulfur market structure was stable, and the high - sulfur market was strong. It is expected that fuel oil prices will continue to fluctuate upward, with specific operation ranges provided [5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures prices**: The FU main contract rose from 2,565 yuan/ton to 2,777 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.25%; the LU main contract rose from 3,094 yuan/ton to 3,229 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.38% [6] - **Spot prices**: The prices of various types of fuel oil in Zhoushan, Singapore, and the Middle East showed different changes. For example, the price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 475.00 to 470.00, a decrease of 1.05% [7] 3.3 Fundamental Data - There are charts showing Singapore fuel oil consumption, China fuel oil consumption, and Shandong fuel oil coking profit margins from 2021 to 2025 [8][9][10] 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from 2025 - 11 - 19 to 2026 - 01 - 28 is provided, showing fluctuations in inventory levels and changes [11] 3.5 Spread Data - There is a chart showing the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil futures [15]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花周报（1.26-1.30） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾： 本周棉花冲高回落，继续在14500-15000区间震荡。春节假期临近，下游工厂补库谨慎，棉花 价格上冲动力减弱。短期继续维持震荡整理。 2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。USDA12月报：25/26年度产量2608.1万吨， 消费2582.3万吨，期末库存1654.1万吨。海关：11月纺织品服装出口238.69亿美元，同比下 降5.12%。12月份我国棉花进口18万吨，同比增加31%；棉纱进口17万吨，同比增加13.33%。 农村部12月25/26年度：产量670万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存835万吨。 棉花主力05上方15000关口压力较大，短期预计在14500-15000区间震荡，夹板思路操作。 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信 ...

2026年2月2日上午，受国际市场贵金属波动传导影响，国内期货市场多个品种出现大幅下行，沪银期货 主力合约触及跌停，报24832元/千克。沪金期货主力合约、广期所铂金及钯金期货主力合约同步出现明 显下行走势，上海黄金交易所Au99.99黄金合约价格也出现重挫。 针对近期贵金属市场的剧烈波动，工行、农行、中行、建行、交行相继调整积存金相关业务规则，包括 上调积存金起购金额、增设业务办理的风险承受能力门槛、对非交易日积存业务实施限额管理等，同时 发布风险提示，引导投资者结合自身财务状况与风险承受能力开展投资，密切关注市场变化，有效管控 持仓风险。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 当日，上海黄金交易所发布《关于调整白银延期合约保证金水平和涨跌停板的通知》，称鉴于白银价格 波动幅度较大，为防范市场风险，将根据规则调整相关合约交易参数。若2月2日Ag（T+D）合约出现 单边市情况，自收盘清算时起该合约保证金水平从20%调整为26%，下一交易日起涨跌幅度限制从19% 调整为25%；未出现单边市则维持原有参数不变。通知要求各会员强化风险防范意识，完善应急 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Ratings for Different Industries - Macro - finance: Index futures are promising in the medium - to - long - term, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move in a range [1][5]. - Black building materials: Coking coal for short - term trading; rebar for range trading; glass recommended to buy on dips [1][8]. - Non - ferrous metals: Copper, aluminum, and nickel for observation; tin, gold, and silver for range trading; lithium carbonate for range - bound fluctuations [1][10][12][14]. - Energy and chemicals: PVC for range trading; caustic soda for temporary observation; soda ash for temporary observation; styrene for range trading; rubber for range trading; urea for range trading; methanol for range trading; polyolefins for weak - range fluctuations [1][17][19][20]. - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn for shock adjustment; apples and jujubes for shock operation [1][26]. - Agricultural and livestock: Pigs for rebound - based short - selling opportunities; eggs for hedging post - festival contracts on rallies; corn for cautious chasing of highs and hedging on rebounds; soybean meal for shorting on rallies; oils for strong - range fluctuations [1][29][30][31][32][33][34][35]. 2. Core Views - The overall market is affected by a variety of factors such as geopolitical situations, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships. Different industries and products show different trends and characteristics. For some products, there are potential investment opportunities, while for others, risks need to be carefully considered. For example, in the non - ferrous metals sector, the prices of copper and aluminum are affected by geopolitical and supply - demand factors, and investors are advised to observe; in the energy and chemicals sector, PVC may have long - term low - buying opportunities, while caustic soda is under pressure in the short - term [10][12][17][19]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Index futures: Affected by factors such as Trump's nomination of the Fed chairman and China's PMI data, they are expected to move in a range in the short - term and are promising in the medium - to - long - term, recommended to buy on dips [5]. - Treasury bonds: With no obvious major negative factors in the bond market, they are expected to move in a range, but the downward space of bond yields is limited [5]. Black building materials - Coking coal: The coal market shows short - term fluctuations. Although the price has increased slightly, the sustainability of the price increase is insufficient, recommended for short - term trading [8]. - Rebar: The futures price is slightly higher than the valley - electricity cost of the electric furnace and lower than the flat - electricity cost. With low inventory and small supply - demand contradictions, it is expected to move in a range [8]. - Glass: Although there are negative factors such as inventory, demand, and holidays, the futures price is at a relatively low level, recommended to buy on dips, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on glass and short on soda ash [9]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Affected by geopolitical and Fed chairman nomination factors, the price has fluctuated sharply. With tight supply and weakening demand, it is expected to move in a wide range, and investors are advised to control positions and pay attention to inventory changes [10]. - Aluminum: With the pressure on bauxite prices and the increase in alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and the approaching of the demand off - season, it is expected to adjust at a high level, and investors are advised to strengthen observation [12]. - Nickel: Affected by the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas, the price has risen, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to observe [14]. - Tin: With the supply of tin concentrate being tight and the downstream consumption maintaining rigid demand, it is expected to continue to fluctuate, recommended for range trading [15]. - Gold and silver: Affected by the nomination of the Fed chairman, the prices have corrected, but the medium - term price centers are expected to move up, and they are expected to continue to adjust in a range [16]. - Lithium carbonate: Affected by factors such as supply and demand and mine risks, it is expected to continue to fluctuate in a range [17]. Energy and chemicals - PVC: With weak domestic demand and high inventory, but low valuation, it is possible that the bottom has been reached. It is recommended to have a long - term low - buying idea, pay attention to policies such as export tax rebates and cost fluctuations [17]. - Caustic soda: With weak demand and high supply, there is short - term delivery pressure, and it is recommended to observe temporarily [19]. - Styrene: Although it has rebounded due to factors such as export increase and device maintenance, the valuation is high, recommended to be cautious about chasing highs, and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [20]. - Rubber: Affected by seasonal supply reduction and weak demand support, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and there is a possibility of further decline [21]. - Urea: With sufficient supply and increasing demand for compound fertilizers, the price is expected to move in a range, and attention should be paid to factors such as compound fertilizer start - up and urea device maintenance [22]. - Methanol: With the reduction of domestic supply and weak downstream demand, the price in the inland market is relatively weak, while the price in some regions is relatively strong due to geopolitical and port arrival factors [23]. - Polyolefins: With increasing supply, decreasing demand in the off - season, and inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to short on rallies [24]. - Soda ash: With supply over - capacity and rising production costs, the price may have limited downward space, and it is recommended to observe temporarily [25]. Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Affected by the global cotton supply - demand forecast report, the price has adjusted after a high - level shock, and it is recommended to be cautious in the short - term and optimistic in the long - term [26]. - Apples and jujubes: The market is generally stable with weak trends, and the price is expected to move in a shock [26][29]. Agricultural and livestock - Pigs: In the short - term, the price is restricted by supply - demand game, recommended to short on rebounds for off - season contracts; in the medium - to - long - term, the price is cautiously bullish, and the industry can hedge on rallies before effective capacity reduction [29][30]. - Eggs: With low basis and high valuation, it is recommended to hedge post - festival contracts on rallies, especially the 05 and 06 contracts considering the supply pressure shift [31]. - Corn: In the short - term, the price is supported by supply - demand balance; in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and hedge on rebounds [32][33][34]. - Soybean meal: In the short - term, the M2603 contract is expected to move in a range; the 05 contract is under pressure, and attention should be paid to support and resistance levels [34]. - Oils: In the short - term, the three major oils are expected to correct but with limited amplitude, recommended to take rolling profit on previous long positions and wait to go long on dips [35][40][41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Shanghai Aluminum first rose and then fell. The main contract increased by 1.11%, closing at 24,560 yuan/ton on Friday. Under the goal of carbon neutrality, production capacity is controlled in the long - term. Domestic real estate restrains demand, but opportunities for aluminum to replace copper should be noted. Currently, the demand is in the off - season, and later consumption changes should be monitored [3]. - From the perspective of the domestic fundamentals, last week, LME inventory was 495,725 tons, showing a slight increase compared with the previous week, and SHFE weekly inventory increased by 19,718 tons to 216,771 tons [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, Shanghai Aluminum first rose and then fell. The main contract increased by 1.11%, closing at 24,560 yuan/ton on Friday. The demand is in the off - season, and later consumption changes should be monitored. LME inventory was 495,725 tons with a slight increase, and SHFE weekly inventory increased by 19,718 tons to 216,771 tons [3]. 3.2 Fundamentals (Inventory Structure) 3.2.1 Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides the China annual supply - demand balance sheet for aluminum from 2018 to 2024 (in 10,000 tons). In 2018, production was 3,609, net imports were 7.03, apparent consumption was 3,615.03, actual consumption was 3,662.63, and the supply - demand balance was - 47.6. From 2019 to 2023, there were varying degrees of supply - demand deficits, with the largest deficit of - 68.61 in 2019. In 2024, there will be a supply - demand surplus of 15 [11]. 3.3 Market Structure 3.3.1 Spot - Futures Price Difference - No specific content provided 3.3.2 Import Profit - No specific content provided

2026 年 2 月 2 日 股指期货将偏弱震荡 黄金、白银、铂、钯、碳酸锂期货将 震荡偏弱 焦煤、玻璃期货将震荡偏强 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： | 期货品 | 主力合 | 趋势 | 阻力位 | | | | 支撑位 | | 重点备注 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | 约 | | | | | | | | | | | 股指 | IF2603 | 偏 ...

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（1.26~1.30） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜冲高回落，沪铜主力合约上涨2.31%，收报于103680元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价， 全球不稳定因素仍存，印尼铜矿出险不可抗力和贵金属大涨，对铜价有明显支撑作用，全球不确定行 仍存。国内方面，消费淡季，目前来看下游消费意愿一般。产业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还是刚 需交易为主。库存方面，铜库存LME库存174975吨，上周小幅增加，上期所铜库存较上周增7067吨至 233004吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | | 中国年度供需平衡 ...

螺纹：震荡格局延续 区间交易为主 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2026-02-02 【产业服务总部 | 黑色产业服务中心】 研究员 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 2月观点：震荡格局延续 区间交易为主 逻辑与策略 1月回顾：1月份，黑色期货价格冲高回落，呈现出"倒V型"走势，较去年12月底稳中有涨，就指数涨跌幅度而言，呈现出焦煤 >焦炭>热卷>螺纹>铁矿格局。宏观方面，市场氛围偏暖，大宗商品价格普涨，而黑色表现平淡。产业方面，1月螺纹钢需求季节性走 弱，产量小幅回升，库存逐步累积，不过目前库存处于近年同期低位水平。 2月展望：宏观方面，全球不确定性加剧，美国对伊朗实施新一轮制裁、美联储新任主席人选影响后期货币政策，短期国内可能 处于政策真空期，产业方面，2月因春节放假，钢材需求回落幅度加大，累库速度会加快，目前钢厂利润尚可，关注产量变化，原料端， 节前下游仍存在一定补库空间，对原料价格有所支撑，不过原料自身供需格局偏宽松。从估值角度来看，目前螺纹钢价格略高于电炉 谷电与长流程成本，估值中性略偏低，预计2月价格涨跌空间都不大，延续震荡格局 ...