交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2026年2月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：上周镍价震荡走弱，周五更是随着金银铜等大幅回落，现货整体成交一般。供应方面，前 期减产的产能开始恢复生产，进口货源陆续到货，印尼寒锐镍板也有大量提供，市场供应充足。产业 链上，镍矿看涨情绪较浓重，菲律宾与印尼都有强支撑。镍铁价格继续上涨，成本线上升。不锈钢库 存开始回升，要注意库存回升之后不锈钢价格或有反转。精炼镍库存持续高位，过剩格局不变。新能 源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货146150，基差6150，偏多 3、库存：LME库存286284，-186，上交所仓单46876，+22，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in various domestic commodity futures, particularly in precious metals, due to international price drops [4][6]. - As of February 2, the Shanghai silver futures contract hit the limit down, with platinum down 16% and palladium down over 15%, while Shanghai gold fell over 12% [4][6]. - Other non-precious metals such as Shanghai tin, nickel, copper, and aluminum also experienced substantial declines, with Shanghai tin down 11% and Shanghai nickel down 8.31% [5][6]. Group 2 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange announced adjustments to the margin levels and price limits for silver deferred contracts due to significant price volatility [6]. - If a one-sided market occurs, the margin level for the Ag (T+D) contract will increase from 20% to 26%, and the price fluctuation limit will change from 19% to 25% starting from the next trading day [6][7]. - Members are advised to enhance risk awareness and prepare emergency risk management plans to ensure market stability [8].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，1月份，制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落；偏多。 2、基差：现货104460，基差-780， 贴水期货；偏空。 3、库存：1月30日铜库存减1100至174975吨，上期所铜库存较上周增7067吨至233004吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高，目前高位 波动，注意仓位控制 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are oscillating and consolidating, with a relatively neutral domestic fundamental situation and stable domestic oil and fat supply. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans for export. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil and fat import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global oil and fat fundamentals. The main risk is the El Niño weather [5] Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the month - end inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January has increased by 29% month - on - month, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. The situation is neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,640, with a basis of 358, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - Inventory: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish [2] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [2] - Main positions: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract increased. It is bullish [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will oscillate in the range of 8,100 - 8,500 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report situation is the same, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. The situation is neutral [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,196, with a basis of - 44, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. It is bearish [3] - Inventory: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 2,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46%. It is bearish [3] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [3] - Main positions: The short positions of the main palm oil contract decreased. It is bearish [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 will oscillate in the range of 9,100 - 9,500 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report situation is the same, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. The situation is neutral [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,298, with a basis of 918, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - Inventory: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. It is bullish [4] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is bearish [4] - Main positions: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. It is bearish [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will oscillate in the range of 9,200 - 9,600 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - Bearish factors: The oil and fat prices are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil and fat inventory has been continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]

2026年开年以来，期货业监管高压态势丝毫不减。 多家期货公司被监管"点名"，处罚直指居间业务、内部控制、互联网营销等核心违规领域，既有警示函、监管谈话等柔性约束，更有暂停新开户等实质性 业务限制。 据不完全统计，2026年1月，多地证监局已对相关期货公司开出6张罚单，实施多起行政监管措施。金元期货、先锋期货、华金期货、恒泰期货、中辉期 货、国新国证期货等卷入其中。 金元期货被罚 1月30日，海南证监局网站公布有关金元期货及该公司相关人员的监管措施。海南证监局指出，经查，金元期货存在违规与第三方机构开展居间合作的情 形，反映出公司互联网营销业务合规管控缺失，内部控制存在缺陷。根据相关规定，金元期货被采取责令改正的行政监督管理措施。 除了公司被罚，金元期货首席风险官吴育娜，公司分管经纪业务的副总经理聂义锋，均被海南证监局采取出具警示函的行政监督管理措施。 分支机构成违规重灾区 从处罚对象看，分支机构成为违规"重灾区"。先锋期货广州分公司、中辉期货天津营业部、恒泰期货青岛营业部等多家分支机构均因多项违规被罚。处罚 力度的升级尤为明显，与以往不同，暂停期货经纪业务新开户与责令改正并行成为主流处罚方式。其中，恒泰期货 ...

报告日期：2026 年 2 月 2 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：贵金属遭受重挫 国家统计局、中国物流与采购联合会 31 日发布 2026 年 1 月份中国采购经理指 数。数据显示，1 月我国制造业市场需求有所收紧，但企业生产保持扩张态势， 产业结构继续优化；服务业运行态势相对稳定，企业预期持续向好。2026 年 1 月 份中国制造业采购经理指数为 49.3%，比上月下降 0.8 个百分点。1 月份装备制 造业采购经理指数为 50.1%，高技术制造业采购经理指数为 52%，装备制造业和 高技术制造业稳中向好发展，制造业产业结构持续优化。受获利回吐和短期期货 交易者多头平仓等因素影响，国际黄金和白银价格 1 月 30 日继续大幅下跌，均 创下数十年来最大单日跌幅。1 月 30 日，国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金 期货跌 8.35%报 4907.50 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货跌 25.50%报 85.25 美元/盎 司。 重点品种：贵金属、原油、铜 贵金属：周五国际市场贵金属价格暴跌，现货白银一度跌超 30%，现货黄金一度 跌超 10%。此次巨震主要受两方面因素影响：一是因为 1 月 30 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2026年2月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：Green Pool：预计26/27年度全球糖供应量过剩15.6万吨，低于25/26年度的274万吨。 2025年12月底，25/26年度本期制糖全国累计产糖470.18万吨；全国累计销糖157万吨；销糖率 33.39%。2025年12月中国进口食糖58万吨，同比增加19万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计6.97 万吨，同比减少12.08万吨。偏空。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空增，主力趋势不明朗，偏空。 6、预期：郑糖主力05上方60日均线压力较大，短期受压回落。周五夜盘外糖再度走低，进口糖低 价压制，国内白糖冲高动力不足。预计继续在5200上下震荡整理。 白糖： 2、基差：柳州现货5370，基差12 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 2 日 0 / 50 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 金银：沃什被提名为联储新主席 引发金银市场风险释放 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：巨幅回撤后多空争夺剧烈 高波动行情谨慎参与 18 | | 铜：沃什提名美联储主席，铜价快速回撤 19 | | 氧化铝：震荡为主 20 | | 电解铝：警惕资金离场风险 20 | | 铸造铝合金：市场流动性收紧 铝合金随板块回调 21 | | 锌：关注市场情绪变化 22 | | 股指期货：波动不改上行趋势 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：官方 PMI 不及预期 5 | | 蛋白粕：供应总体宽松 | 盘面仍有压力 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价大跌 | 预计国内价格偏弱 6 | | 油脂板块：油脂维持宽度震荡 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货回落，盘面偏弱震荡 8 | | | 生猪：供应压力好转 | 现货整体上涨 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：临近节前备货，蛋价有所上涨 10 | | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 ...

【新闻】 提名沃什，特朗普：他会是最伟大的美联储主席之一，无需白宫施压，沃什自会降息。（华尔街见闻） 特朗普钦点美联储新主席，几位落选热门候选人喊话：利率太高该降了。（华尔街见闻） 铅趋势强度：0 2026 年 02 月 02 日 铅：供需双弱，价格震荡 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16865 | -1.86% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1995 | -0.77% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 122859 | 34910 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 10642 | -4770 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 56480 | -2608 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 171261 | 3394 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | 50 | 5 ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资和咖业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年2月2日 | 品种 | 最新值 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 较前一日变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | 4.66 | 92.60% | 77.50% | 上期间处差 | -25.47 | H期现价来 | 7.50 | -11.98 | 94.60% | 90.70% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | 90.10% | -8.12 | -7.88 | 71,60% | IM期现价差 | 5.74 | 18.79 | 90.00% | 91,20% | 次月-当月 | -8.40 | 92.6096 | 62.40% | 1.00 | | | 零月-当月 | -10.20 | -7.20 | ...