Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Date: February 27, 2026 [2] - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Both LLDPE and PP are expected to have a volatile trend today due to cost support from geopolitical factors and weak downstream demand [4][7] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Analysis - The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range [4] - Tensions in the Middle East have led to high - level fluctuations in crude oil prices, providing cost support for polyolefins [4] - Trump's new tariff policy may affect product exports [4] - Market demand expectations may increase due to possible stimulus policies during the Two Sessions in March and Sino - US negotiations [4] - Most agricultural film enterprises have not resumed work, packaging film enterprises are gradually resuming work at a low load, and pipe enterprises' resumption of work is restricted by weather [4] Key Data - The spot price of LLDPE delivery product is 6600 (-50) [4] - The basis of LLDPE 2605 contract is -68, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.0%, indicating a bearish signal [4] - PE comprehensive inventory is 62.7 tons (+25.9), neutral [4] - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, neutral [4] - The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4] Outlook - The LLDPE main contract is expected to rebound at the opening, with cost support from geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, neutral inventory, and weak downstream demand, so it is expected to be volatile today [4] Factors - Bullish factors: cost support and rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical premiums [6] - Bearish factors: weak downstream demand [6] - Main logic: oversupply, sensitive to marginal changes in supply and demand [6] PP Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Similar to LLDPE, the official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range [7] - Crude oil price fluctuations due to geopolitical factors support polyolefin costs [7] - Trump's new tariff policy may affect product exports [7] - Market demand expectations may increase due to possible stimulus policies during the Two Sessions in March and Sino - US negotiations [7] - The resumption of work in the plastic weaving industry is slow, while the BOPP industry has a relatively fast resumption of work but faces some finished - product inventory pressure [7] Key Data - The spot price of PP delivery product is 6680 (+0) [7] - The basis of PP 2605 contract is 5, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.1%, neutral [7] - PP comprehensive inventory is 74 tons (+34.9), neutral [7] - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, neutral [7] - The net position of the PP main contract is long, and long positions are decreasing, indicating a bullish signal [7] Outlook - The PP main contract is expected to rebound at the opening, with cost support from geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, neutral inventory, and weak downstream demand, so it is expected to be volatile today [7] Factors - Bullish factors: cost support and rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical premiums [8] - Bearish factors: weak downstream demand [8] - Main logic: oversupply, sensitive to marginal changes in supply and demand [8] Supply - Demand Balance Tables Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polyethylene has been increasing, with a significant increase of 20.5% expected in 2025E [14] - The import dependence of polyethylene has shown a downward trend in recent years [14] Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polypropylene has been increasing, with an expected increase of 11.0% in 2025E [16] - The import dependence of polypropylene has also shown a downward trend [16]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2026年2月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。USDA2月报：25/26年度产量 2609.6万吨，消费2584.7万吨，期末库存1635.3万吨。海关：12月纺织品服装出口259.9亿美 元，同比下降7.4%。12月份我国棉花进口18万吨，同比增加31%；棉纱进口17万吨，同比增加 13.33%。农村部2月25/26年度：产量664万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存829万 吨。偏多。 6：预期：昨日郑棉冲高回落，短期利多集中体现，盘面存在有调整需求。基本面看，美国关 税有所下调， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, trend intensities for various commodities are given, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment: - Strongly bullish: Iron ore, tin, cotton, palm oil, soybean oil, sugar [57][36][187][170][181] - Bullish: Logs,动力煤 [78][75] - Neutral: Gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, cast - aluminum alloy, platinum, palladium, nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, polysilicon, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, short - fiber, bottle - chip, offset printing paper, pure benzene, soybean meal, soybeans, corn, peanuts [22][25][28][31][38][40][44][50][53][59][63][67][79][88][92][95][100][105][111][114][119][122][125][127][155][158][163][171][174][195] - Bearish: PVC, fuel oil [137][140] - Strongly bearish: Live pigs [193] 2. Core Views 2.1 Exchange Rate - After the holiday, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continued its pre - holiday strong trend. On February 26, the on - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar reached new highs since April 2023. The appreciation is supported by factors such as the weakening of the US dollar index, the reduction of US tariffs on China, the withdrawal of US dollar long positions, and market expectations for favorable policies. However, there are also factors that may cause the RMB to depreciate in the short term [7]. 2.2 Commodities - **Cotton**: After the holiday, Zhengzhou cotton futures rose due to the increase in foreign markets and technical buying. However, there is no obvious fundamental support, and the futures price has fallen back. It is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend, but further upward movement may require new fundamental drivers [10]. - **Manganese silicon**: The price of manganese silicon futures rose due to the news of South African mineral tax, but it is mainly an emotional push. Fundamentally, the short - term supply has not decreased, and the price may be under pressure due to high inventory [11][12]. - **Steam coal**: After the Spring Festival, the steam coal market continued its pre - holiday strong trend, mainly driven by the reduction of imported coal supply. However, in March, the market will enter the traditional off - season, and the upward support for coal prices is expected to weaken [13][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pre - market Focus - **Exchange rate**: The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar reached a three - year high, and the pricing is not extremely deviated. The appreciation is supported by multiple factors, and the future trend is affected by both positive and negative factors [7]. - **Commodities**: The所长 recommends cotton, manganese silicon, and steam coal, with a high attention index of ★★★★. The prices of these commodities are affected by different factors, and their future trends need to pay attention to fundamental changes [10][11][13]. 3.2 Commodity Research Morning Report - **Precious metals**: Gold is expected to move up in a volatile manner, and silver is in a volatile pattern [22]. - **Base metals**: Copper's price recovery is restricted by increasing inventory; zinc needs to pay attention to geopolitical disturbances; lead lacks driving forces and is in a volatile state; tin is expected to be strongly volatile; aluminum is in a range - bound state; alumina's supply pressure is not relieved; cast - aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum; platinum is in a box - shaped oscillation; palladium's high - frequency data is weak; nickel still has speculative sentiment, and attention should be paid to the contradiction of nickel ore; stainless steel's cost support center moves up, but the off - season inventory accumulation restricts its elasticity [25][28][31][34][38][40][44]. - **Energy and chemicals**: Lithium carbonate's supply and demand are tight, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes; industrial silicon should pay attention to the resumption of production of upstream enterprises; polysilicon should pay attention to post - holiday spot transactions; iron ore's price is expected to rise in a volatile manner; rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a volatile and repeated state; ferrosilicon's price fluctuates widely due to sector sentiment; manganese silicon's price is pulled up at a low level by funds; coke and coking coal are in a weakly volatile state; steam coal's price is strong in the short term; logs are expected to be strongly volatile; p - xylene, PTA, and MEG are in a range - bound state; rubber is in a wide - range volatile state; synthetic rubber is in a high - level volatile state; LLDPE has oil price risks to be released, and its supply - demand pattern is average; PP's C3 raw material is strong, and PDH maintenance is still high; caustic soda has large near - month delivery pressure but cost support; pulp is in a volatile state; glass's original sheet price is stable; methanol is in a volatile state; urea is in a short - term volatile state; styrene is in a strongly volatile state; soda ash's spot market has little change; LPG is affected by Middle - East supply disturbances and is waiting for CP to be announced; propylene's supply and demand are tight, and the spot price is stable; PVC is in a weakly volatile state; fuel oil is in a weak state; low - sulfur fuel oil is in a narrow - range volatile state; the container shipping index (European line) should be treated with a volatile mindset; short - fiber and bottle - chip are in a high - level volatile state and should pay attention to geopolitical fluctuations; offset printing paper should be on the sidelines; pure benzene is in a strongly volatile state [50][53][56][59][63][67][73][76][79][88][92][95][100][105][111][114][119][122][125][127][137][140][143][155][158][163]. - **Agricultural products**: Palm oil's production reduction is realized, and a short - term long - buying strategy on dips can be adopted; soybean oil is strongly affected by the implementation of the US biofuel policy; soybean meal may be volatile due to the slight decline of overnight US soybeans; soybeans' spot price is stable, and the futures price is strong; corn is expected to be strongly volatile; sugar's price - increasing sentiment is spreading; cotton's futures price has回调; eggs are in a weakly volatile state; live pigs' futures price has advanced the trading of inventory accumulation, but it is difficult to reduce inventory in the off - season; peanuts are in a volatile state [167][171][174][178][182][188][191][195].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Date: February 27, 2026 [2] - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of urea are bullish, with high daily production, high supply pressure, weak industrial demand, good reserve demand, and significant inventory destocking. The UR contract is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - The main logic for price movement lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand, with the main risk being changes in export policies [5]. Group 4: Urea Overview Fundamentals - Current daily production and operating rates are at high levels compared to the same period. After the Spring Festival, with the restart of some natural - gas plants, daily production is expected to remain high. Overall supply pressure is at a historical high for the same period. Industrial demand is weak, with low operating rates for compound fertilizers and melamine. Agricultural reserve demand is good, and there is still room for growth with the start of spring - plowing demand after the festival. Comprehensive inventory continues to decline, showing an obvious destocking pattern. The external market price remains high, and the export price difference continues to widen. The spot price of the delivery product is 1,830 (+0) [4]. Basis - The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 6, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.3%, indicating a neutral situation [4]. Inventory - The comprehensive UR inventory is 119.6 million tons (+19.6), considered neutral [4]. Futures Disk - The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, indicating a bullish trend [4]. Main Positions - The net position of the main UR contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish trend [4]. Expectation - The main UR contract is expected to fluctuate. With high daily production, weak industrial demand, good reserve demand, and significant inventory destocking, the UR is expected to show a fluctuating trend today [4]. Group 5: Spot and Futures Market Spot Market - The price of the spot delivery product is 1,830 with no change; Shandong spot price is 1,860 with no change; Henan spot price is 1,830 with no change; FOB China price is 3,205 [6]. Futures Market - The price of the 05 contract is 1,836, down 2; the basis is - 6, up 2; UR01 price is 1,784, down 9; UR05 price is 1,836, down 2; UR09 price is 1,801, down 8 [6]. Inventory - Warehouse receipts are 5,958, down 2,140; UR comprehensive inventory is 119.6 million tons; UR factory inventory is 103.0 million tons; UR port inventory is 16.6 million tons [6]. Group 6: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2,245.5 | - | 1,956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2,405.19 | 23.66 | 2,405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2,445.5 | 8.9% | 2,240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2,727.94 | 37.86 | 2,713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2,825.5 | 15.5% | 2,580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3,200.1 | 37.83 | 3,200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3,148.5 | 11.4% | 2,927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3,280.4 | 35.72 | 3,282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3,413.5 | 8.4% | 2,965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3,300.83 | 44.62 | 3,291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3,893.5 | 14.1% | 3,193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3,486.72 | 44.65 | 3,486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4,418.5 | 13.5% | 3,425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3,785 | 51.4 | 3,778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4,906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9] Group 7: Other Information - Data sources: Steel Union, Dayue Futures collation [8][11][13][15]

金融研究 2026年2月27日 星期五 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：2 月 26 日，A 股四大股指涨跌不一，其中上证指数下跌 0.01%，报收 4146.63 点；深成 指上涨 0.19%，报收 14503.79 点；创业板指下跌 0.29%，报收 3344.98 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.85%， 报收 1485.86 点。市场成交 25,566 亿元，较前日增加 757 亿元。行业板块方面，通信(+2.84%)，电 子(+1.98%)，国防军工(+1.52%)表现较好；房地产(-2.25%)，传媒(-1.45%)，非银金融(-1.42%)表现 一般。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,482/131/2,866。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-107、-193、88、213 亿元，分别变动-167、-18、+170、+15 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 92.42、42.22、20.27 与-1.33 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-7.56%、-3.43%、-2.98%与 0.3%，三年期历史分位 ...

2026年02月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 27 日 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：供需偏紧，关注市场情绪变化 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注上游复产情况 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注节后现货成交 | 6 | 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 141,040 | -210 | 5,850 | 9,200 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity futures market closed with mixed results, with base metals leading the gains. The A - share market is expected to continue its moderate upward trend after the opening, but the slope will be slower than in January. The RMB is expected to continue to strengthen in the second quarter. Most varieties in the market are expected to show an oscillatory trend in the short - term [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On February 25, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4731.4, with a daily increase of 0.9%, a weekly increase of 2.26%, a monthly increase of 0.43%, a quarterly increase of 2.86%, and an annual increase of 2.86%. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also showed different degrees of increase [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures showed different degrees of decline on February 25, 2026, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures having the largest daily decline of 0.48% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 97.6594 on February 25, 2026, with a daily decline of 0.24%, a weekly decline of 0.09%, a monthly increase of 0.56%, and an annual decline of 0.62%. The US dollar intermediate price decreased by 202 pips daily [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 4.05 bp on February 25, 2026, with a daily increase of 1 bp, a weekly decline of 3 bp, a monthly decline of 21 bp, and an annual decline of 13 bp [2]. 3.2 Fluctuations of Popular Industries - On February 26, 2026, the defense and military industry had a daily increase of 1.62%, a weekly increase of 4.8%, a monthly increase of 6.07%, a quarterly increase of 10.92%, and an annual increase of 10.92%. The consumer services industry had a daily decline of 1.41%, a weekly decline of 5.6%, a monthly decline of 4.96%, a quarterly decline of 4.37%, and an annual decline of 4.37% [5]. 3.3 Fluctuations of Overseas Commodities - On February 25, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil was priced at 65.57, with a daily decline of 0.09%, a weekly decline of 1.12%, a monthly decline of 0.26%, a quarterly increase of 14.21%, and an annual increase of 14.21%. COMEX gold was priced at 5183.7, with a daily increase of 0.14%, a weekly increase of 1.05%, a monthly increase of 5.63%, a quarterly increase of 19.66%, and an annual increase of 19.66% [8]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Summary - **Domestic Macroeconomy**: During the Spring Festival, travel and consumption performed well, while real - estate sales were at a seasonal low. The social financing at the beginning of January was stable, with strong government - sector financing and private - sector financing in line with expectations [16]. - **Overseas Macroeconomy**: The US economy showed a slowdown in overall expansion and structural differentiation in multiple fields. In February 2026, the US economic sentiment and consumer confidence weakened, and the private - sector expansion slowed down [16]. - **Major Asset Classes**: The US - Iran geopolitical situation and Trump's tariff policy may support the prices of gold and silver in the short - term. The A - share market is expected to continue its moderate upward trend, while the black - metal sector and the domestic bond market may continue to oscillate. The RMB is expected to strengthen in the second quarter [16]. 3.5 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to be oscillating and bullish, stock index options are expected to oscillate, and treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate [17]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be oscillating and bullish [17]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe is expected to oscillate [17]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties in this sector, such as steel, iron ore, and coke, are expected to oscillate [17]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metals and new materials, such as copper, aluminum, and nickel, are expected to oscillate, with some showing an oscillating and bullish trend [17]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical products, such as crude oil, LPG, and asphalt, are expected to oscillate [20]. - **Agriculture**: Most agricultural products, such as natural rubber, cotton, and sugar, are expected to oscillate, with some showing an oscillating and bullish or bearish trend [20].

Market Ratings - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industries. Core Views - The report provides short - term trend outlooks for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. Each commodity's outlook is based on its specific supply - demand situation, market sentiment, and macro - economic factors [2][4]. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate upwards. The trend strength is 1. Gold prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical events and macro - economic data [2][7]. - **Silver**: In an oscillating pattern. The trend strength is 1. Silver prices are influenced by market sentiment and industrial demand [2][6]. - **Platinum**: In a box - shaped oscillation. The trend strength is 0. Platinum prices are affected by supply - demand balance and market sentiment [25][27]. - **Palladium**: High - frequency data is weak. The trend strength is 0. Palladium prices are influenced by automotive industry demand and supply factors [25][27]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Inventory is continuously increasing, which restricts price recovery. The trend strength is 0. Global supply - demand balance and geopolitical factors affect copper prices [2][10]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. The trend strength is 0. Zinc prices are influenced by geopolitical events and supply - demand fundamentals [2][13]. - **Lead**: Lacks driving forces, and prices oscillate. The trend strength is 0. Lead prices are affected by supply - demand balance and market sentiment [2][16]. - **Tin**: Oscillates with a slightly upward trend. The trend strength is 1. Tin prices are influenced by supply - demand situation and market sentiment [2][19]. - **Aluminum**: In a range - bound oscillation. The trend strength is 0. Aluminum prices are affected by supply - demand balance and cost factors [23][24]. - **Alumina**: Supply pressure remains unrelieved. The trend strength is - 1. Alumina prices are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals and production costs [23][24]. - **Nickel**: Speculative sentiment in Shanghai nickel still exists, and continuous attention should be paid to nickel ore contradictions. The trend strength is 0. Nickel prices are affected by supply - demand balance and policy factors [29][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The cost support center moves up, but off - season inventory accumulation restricts elasticity. The trend strength is 0. Stainless steel prices are influenced by cost and demand factors [29][34]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Although not directly mentioned in the title, it affects related products. - **Fuel Oil**: Night - session prices declined, and weakness reappeared. The trend strength is - 1. Fuel oil prices are affected by crude oil prices and market demand [2][124]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Narrow - range oscillation, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable. The trend strength is 0. Low - sulfur fuel oil prices are influenced by crude oil prices and regulatory policies [2][125]. - **Natural Gas**: Not specifically mentioned in the report. - **Coal**: - **Coking Coal**: Affected by warehouse - receipt disturbances, prices oscillate weakly. The trend strength is 0. Coking coal prices are influenced by supply - demand balance and market sentiment [2][54]. - **Coking Coke**: Oscillates weakly. The trend strength is 0. Coke prices are affected by coking coal prices and steel industry demand [2][53]. - **Steam Coal**: Upstream quotes are firm, and short - term coal prices are strong. The trend strength is 1. Steam coal prices are influenced by supply - demand balance and seasonal factors [2][59]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Production cuts are realized, and a short - term buy - on - dips strategy is recommended. The trend strength is 1. Palm oil prices are affected by production, demand, and weather conditions [151][154]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US bio - diesel policy is gradually implemented, and US soybean oil shows a strong performance. The trend strength is 1. Soybean oil prices are influenced by US policies and global supply - demand balance [151][154]. - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight US soybeans slightly declined, and Dalian soybean meal may oscillate. The trend strength is 0. Soybean meal prices are affected by US soybean prices and domestic demand [155][157]. - **Soybean**: Spot prices are stable, and the futures market is strong. The trend strength is 0. Soybean prices are influenced by domestic supply - demand balance and international market conditions [155][157]. - **Corn**: Oscillates with a slightly upward trend. The trend strength is 0. Corn prices are affected by supply - demand balance and policy factors [158][161]. - **Sugar**: The price - increase sentiment is spreading. The trend strength is 1. Sugar prices are influenced by global supply - demand balance and policy factors [162][165]. - **Cotton**: Futures prices have回调. The trend strength is 1. Cotton prices are affected by domestic and international supply - demand balance and market sentiment [166][171]. - **Eggs**: Oscillate weakly. The trend strength is - 1. Egg prices are influenced by supply - demand balance and feed costs [172][173]. - **Hogs**: The futures market anticipates inventory accumulation in advance, but it is difficult to reduce inventory in the off - season. The trend strength is - 2. Hog prices are affected by supply - demand balance and market sentiment [175][177]. - **Peanuts**: Oscillate. The trend strength is 0. Peanut prices are influenced by supply - demand balance and market sentiment [179][181]. Chemical Products - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: Follows cost fluctuations and is in a range - bound market. The trend strength is 0. PX prices are affected by crude oil prices and supply - demand balance [65][70]. - **Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA)**: Follows cost fluctuations and is in a range - bound market. The trend strength is 0. PTA prices are influenced by PX prices and downstream demand [65][70]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: In a range - bound market, with a strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG. The trend strength is 0. MEG prices are affected by supply - demand balance and cost factors [65][70]. - **Rubber**: Wide - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0. Rubber prices are influenced by supply - demand balance and macro - economic factors [73][74]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillates at a high level. The trend strength is 0. Synthetic rubber prices are affected by raw material prices and market demand [77][79]. - **Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LLDPE)**: Crude oil risks need to be released, and its own supply - demand pattern is average. The trend strength is - 1. LLDPE prices are influenced by crude oil prices and supply - demand balance [80][83]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: C3 raw materials are strong, and PDH maintenance is still high. The trend strength is 0. PP prices are affected by raw material prices and supply - demand balance [80][83]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is great pressure for near - month delivery, but costs still provide support. The trend strength is 0. Caustic soda prices are influenced by supply - demand balance and production costs [85][87]. - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillates. The trend strength is 0. Paper pulp prices are affected by supply - demand balance and market sentiment [90][92]. - **Glass**: The price of raw sheets is stable. The trend strength is 0. Glass prices are influenced by supply - demand balance and production costs [96][97]. - **Methanol**: Oscillates. The trend strength is 0. Methanol prices are affected by supply - demand balance and cost factors [99][103]. - **Urea**: Oscillates in the short term. The trend strength is 0. Urea prices are influenced by supply - demand balance and policy factors [104][106]. - **Styrene**: Oscillates with a slightly upward trend. The trend strength is 0. Styrene prices are affected by supply - demand balance and market sentiment [107][109]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The trend strength is 0. Soda ash prices are influenced by supply - demand balance and production costs [110]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Affected by Middle - East supply disturbances, waiting for the release of CP. The trend strength is 0. LPG prices are influenced by Middle - East supply and market sentiment [112][117]. - **Propylene**: Supply - demand remains tight, and spot prices are stable. The trend strength is 0. Propylene prices are affected by supply - demand balance and raw material prices [112][117]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Oscillates weakly. The trend strength is - 1. PVC prices are influenced by supply - demand balance and production costs [121][122]. Others - **Log**: Expectations are improving, and prices oscillate with a slightly upward trend. The trend strength is 1. Log prices are influenced by real - estate policies and market demand [62][64]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Adopt an oscillating approach. The trend strength is 0. The index is affected by supply - demand balance in the shipping market and geopolitical factors [127][138]. - **Short - Fiber**: Oscillates at a high level, and attention should be paid to geopolitical fluctuations. The trend strength is 0. Short - fiber prices are affected by raw material prices and market demand [139][140]. - **Bottle Chip**: Oscillates at a high level, and attention should be paid to geopolitical fluctuations. The trend strength is 0. Bottle - chip prices are influenced by raw material prices and market demand [139][140]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The trend strength is 0. Offset printing paper prices are affected by supply - demand balance and market sentiment [142]. - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillates with a slightly upward trend. The trend strength is 0. Pure benzene prices are affected by supply - demand balance and market sentiment [147][149].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The precious metals market is gradually recovering from previous declines. Gold is recommended to hold long positions, and the long - term outlook remains positive. Silver has increased spot price volatility, so caution is advised [1]. - For base metals, copper is expected to remain range - bound in the short term and look for low - buying opportunities in the medium term. Aluminum is expected to maintain a price range in the short term. Alumina's price decline is limited, and attention should be paid to the maintenance and shutdown of alumina plants. Lead is recommended to sell on rallies, and zinc should be traded within a range. Lithium carbonate is expected to have high - level oscillations, and tin is recommended to buy on dips [2][3]. - In the black industry, for rebar, long positions should be closed, and aggressive investors can try to short the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract. Iron ore should be observed. For coking coal, long positions should be closed, and aggressive investors can try to short the coking coal 2605 contract [4][5]. - In the agricultural products market, soybeans are expected to be strong, and domestic soybean meal is expected to be volatile and strong. Corn futures are expected to be volatile and strong. Oils are expected to be weak, and a reverse spread strategy can be used. Cotton is recommended to buy on dips. Egg and hog futures are expected to be volatile and weak [6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, LLDPE and PP are expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the US - Iran event. PVC and soda ash are recommended to wait and see. PX is recommended to be long - allocated, and PTA should take appropriate profits. Glass is recommended to buy glass and sell soda ash. MEG is recommended to look for short - term long - buying opportunities. Crude oil is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options on SC04 when the price is high. Styrene is expected to be volatile in the short term and long - bought in the second quarter [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold prices denominated in London Gold rose, and international silver prices denominated in London Silver fell [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Nvidia's annual report performance did not ease market concerns, and its stock price fell. The Fed governor expects to cut interest rates in 2026. The third - round of US - Iran negotiations ended. There were changes in domestic and international gold and silver inventories, and India's silver imports increased [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in gold and be cautious in participating in the silver market [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Nvidia's stock price decline weakened market risk appetite. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and short - term global visible inventories increased significantly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound in the short term and look for low - buying opportunities in the medium term [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.17% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to remain range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream resumption of work, US tariff policies, and overseas production capacity changes [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 1.74% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Some alumina plants entered the production - reduction and maintenance stage, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price decline is limited, and attention should be paid to the maintenance and shutdown of alumina plants [3]. Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: The zinc and lead main contracts had price changes, and inventories increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: For lead, the processing fee at the mine end was low, production decreased, and demand was limited. For zinc, the processing fee was low, production decreased seasonally, and the supply - demand imbalance persisted [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Sell lead on rallies and trade zinc within a range [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The price of lithium carbonate rose [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate increased, production and demand had changes, and inventory decreased [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the market will focus on the supply - side Zimbabwe export ban [3]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices rose sharply [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Market risk appetite decreased, but there was speculation about supply problems due to the turmoil in Myanmar, and funds actively increased positions [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips [3]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The rebar main 2605 contract price decreased [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand contradiction of steel was not significant. The demand for building materials was weak, and the supply decreased year - on - year. The demand for plates was stable, and exports remained high. Steel billet inventory was at a historical high, and the inventory of five major steel products was close to the historical average. Steel mills were in a loss state, and production increase was limited. The valuation of hot - rolled coils and rebar futures was polarized [4][5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close long positions, and aggressive investors can short the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore main 2605 contract price increased [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of iron ore was neutral. The iron - making water production was basically the same year - on - year. There was no further plan for coke price increase. Steel mill profits were poor, and blast furnace production might decrease. The supply was in line with the seasonal pattern and increased slightly year - on - year. Port iron ore inventory was high, and there was a structural contradiction. The valuation was neutral [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe mainly [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The coking coal main 2605 contract price decreased [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Steel mill profits were poor, and blast furnace production might decrease. The first - round price increase of coking coal was implemented, and there was no further plan. The inventory at different links was polarized, and the overall inventory was at a medium level. The futures price of the 05 contract was at a premium to the spot price, and the valuation was high [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close long positions, and aggressive investors can short the coking coal 2605 contract [5]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The overnight CBOT soybean price changed little [6]. - **Fundamentals**: South America had a high - yield expectation. US soybean crushing was strong, and export expectations were high. The overall supply - demand of US soybeans was expected to improve, but the global supply - demand was expected to be loose [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade on the expectation of China's increased purchase of US soybeans, and pay attention to US soybean exports and South American production [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices were strong, and spot prices in the Northeast increased [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress was over 60%, and the pressure was not large. Attention should be paid to the grain - selling pressure of ground - stored grain after the temperature rise. The inventory of downstream feed and deep - processing enterprises was at the same level as before, and the inventory at north - south ports was low, but downstream enterprises were in a loss state [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and strong [6]. Oils - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil prices fell [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The production in Malaysia from February 1 - 20 decreased by 12% month - on - month, and exports from February 1 - 25 decreased by 12% month - on - month. The supply - demand was weak [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade on the expectation of seasonal production increase and use a reverse spread strategy [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The overnight ICE US cotton futures price oscillated and decreased, and the international crude oil price fluctuated widely [7]. - **Fundamentals**: US cotton export sales decreased. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated after rising and then falling. The textile enterprise's in - stock cotton inventory increased [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips in the price range of 15100 - 15500 yuan/ton [7]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices were weak, and spot prices decreased slightly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: After the Spring Festival, it was the traditional off - season for egg demand. The overall supply was sufficient, and egg prices were expected to be low [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and weak [7]. Hogs - **Market Performance**: Hog futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices mostly rebounded [7]. - **Fundamentals**: After the Spring Festival, the supply was strong and the demand was weak. The daily slaughter volume was expected to increase, and the futures and spot prices were expected to be weak [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and weak [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract price decreased slightly. The basis was weak, and the market transaction was average. The overseas price was stable, and the import window was closed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: There was no new device put into production in the first half of the year, and some existing devices reduced production or stopped. The import volume was expected to decrease slightly. The downstream demand was weak, but it would enter the peak season in March and April [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the US - Iran event [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract price decreased by 2% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: High inventory suppressed the price, and it was still oscillating at the bottom. The supply was large, and the demand was weak. The downstream factory had not resumed work, and the real - estate market was weak. The social inventory reached a new high [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [8]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The PX CFR price was 931 US dollars/ton, and the PTA price was 5235 yuan/ton. The spot basis was - 63 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of PX was at a high level, and the supply of PTA increased. The polyester factory load was at a seasonal low, and the inventory pressure was not large. PX was in the process of destocking, and PTA was in the process of inventory accumulation [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a long - allocation view on PX and take appropriate profits on PTA [9]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The fg05 contract price decreased by 0.3% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: High inventory suppressed the price. The supply decreased, and the inventory increased again. The downstream demand was weak, and the real - estate market was weak [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy glass and sell soda ash [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP main contract price decreased slightly. The basis was weak, and the market transaction was average. The overseas price was stable, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure increased, and the demand was weak in the short term. The downstream would resume work after the Lantern Festival [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and pay attention to the US - Iran event. In the long - term, it is mainly range - bound and short - sold on rallies [8]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The MEG East China spot price was 3641 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was - 88 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure was relieved, and the import supply decreased marginally. The inventory in some East China ports increased to 900,000 tons. The polyester load decreased seasonally, and the inventory pressure was not large. MEG would accumulate inventory in February and destock in March [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - term long - buying opportunities [9]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The oil price rose and then fell due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure of Russian oil increased, and the short - term supply was affected by the US - Iran negotiation. The supply would increase in the medium term. The demand for heating in the US increased in February and would decline in March, and the gasoline demand was in the off - season [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy out - of - the - money put options on SC04 when the price is high [10]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract price decreased slightly. The spot market transaction was average. The overseas price rose slightly, and the import window was closed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The pure benzene inventory was at a normal - to - high level, and the supply - demand pattern improved in February and March. The styrene inventory accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand was weak in February and March. The downstream enterprise's finished - product inventory was high, and the downstream would resume work after the Lantern Festival [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile in the short term and long - bought in the second quarter [10]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The sa05 contract price increased by 0.5% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The price was at the bottom and stalemate, and the upstream received orders well. The supply was large, and the inventory increased moderately. The downstream demand was weak [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index: Long - term bullish, buy on dips [1][6] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound trading [1][6] - Coking coal: Short - term trading [1][7] - Rebar: Range trading [1][8] - Glass: Weak - side range - bound trading [1][9] - Copper: Short - term range trading, focus on 98000 - 106000 [1][11] - Aluminum: Strengthen observation [1][12] - Nickel: Moderately hold long positions on dips [1][14] - Tin: Range trading [1][15] - Gold: Range trading [1][16] - Silver: Range trading [1][16] - Lithium carbonate: Range - bound oscillation [1][17] - PVC: Range trading [1][17] - Caustic soda: Low - level range - bound trading [1][20] - Soda ash: Short on rallies [1][27] - Styrene: Go long on dips, not chase highs [1][21] - Rubber: Range trading [1][22] - Urea: Range trading [1][24] - Methanol: Range trading [1][24] - Polyolefins: Weak - side range - bound trading [1][25] - Cotton and cotton yarn: Bull - side range - bound trading [1][28] - Apples: Bull - side range - bound trading [1][28] - Red dates: Range - bound trading [1][30] - Hogs: Be cautious about shorting the 05 contract, short on rallies [1][30] - Eggs: If culling does not accelerate, short on rallies for near - term contracts [1][32] - Corn: Bull - side range - bound trading, range - based operations [1][33] - Soybean meal: Short on rallies [1][34] - Oils: Buy on dips [1][34] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical events, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships, leading to different trends in different commodity futures [6][12][33] - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations, cost factors, and market expectations, which determine their investment ratings and price trends [8][14][20] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Finance - Index: Affected by overseas tech stocks and unclear US - Iran situation, it may be under short - term pressure, but long - term is bullish [6] - Treasury bonds: Due to institutional behavior and supply pressure, it is expected to trade in a range [6] 3.2 Black Building Materials - Coking coal: The post - holiday market is weak and stable, with slow demand recovery, suitable for short - term trading [8] - Rebar: With low valuation and weak drive, it is expected to trade in a range, focusing on post - holiday demand recovery [8] - Glass: With supply, inventory, and demand issues, it is expected to trade weakly in a range, with increased post - holiday volatility [9][10] 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Affected by trade policies and supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected to trade in a range around 100000 in the short term [12] - Aluminum: Supply is expected to improve, but the market sentiment for non - ferrous metals is still bullish. It is recommended to strengthen observation [13] - Nickel: Affected by the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas, the ore end has strong support, and it is recommended to hold long positions on dips [14][15] - Tin: With tight supply and stable demand in the downstream, it is expected to continue to trade in a range [15] - Gold and silver: Affected by US economic data, trade policies, and geopolitical events, the mid - term price center is expected to move up, and range trading is recommended [15][16] - Lithium carbonate: With supply and demand changes and potential supply disturbances, it is expected to trade in a range [16][17] 3.4 Energy Chemicals - PVC: With weak domestic demand and high inventory, it is in a weak supply - demand situation. However, due to low valuation and potential policy impacts, it is recommended for range trading [17] - Caustic soda: With weak demand support and potential supply - side changes, it is expected to trade in a range at a low level [20] - Soda ash: With increasing supply and inventory pressure, it is recommended to short on rallies [27] - Styrene: It is expected to be bullish in the short term, but supply pressure may increase in March. It is recommended to go long on dips [21] - Rubber: Due to supply - demand contradictions, it is expected to trade in a range [22] - Urea: With supply increases and demand support, it is expected to trade in a range [24] - Methanol: With weak domestic market conditions, it is expected to trade in a range [24] - Polyolefins: With increasing supply pressure and expected improvement in downstream demand, it is expected to trade weakly in a range [25][26] 3.5 Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: With changes in global supply - demand expectations and post - holiday consumption recovery, it is expected to be bullish in a range [28] - Apples: With post - holiday market conditions, it is expected to be bullish in a range [28] - Red dates: The 2025 production season has specific acquisition price ranges, and it is expected to trade in a range [30] 3.6 Agricultural and Livestock - Hogs: In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. For the 05 contract, it is recommended to be cautious about shorting and short on rallies. The long - term price trend depends on production capacity reduction [30] - Eggs: With sufficient supply and weak demand in the short term, if culling does not accelerate, it is recommended to short on rallies for near - term contracts [32] - Corn: With short - term supply - demand games and long - term loose supply - demand patterns, it is recommended for range - based operations [33] - Soybean meal: Affected by external factors and domestic supply - demand, it is recommended to short on rallies [34] - Oils: Affected by various factors, the short - term price is expected to be supported but with limited upside. It is recommended to buy on dips, especially for soybean oil [34][39]