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大盘企稳 市场热点有望扩散
Chang Sha Wan Bao· 2025-11-19 15:18
Group 1: Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance on November 19, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.18% to close at 3946.74 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index slightly declined to 13080.09 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.25% to 3076.85 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 172.59 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.02 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Despite the overall index closing in the green, a significant number of stocks declined, with 4175 stocks falling and only 1200 stocks rising, indicating a challenging environment for most investors [1] Group 2: Foreign Investment Sentiment - Foreign institutional investors are increasingly optimistic about Chinese assets, with several major firms expressing a positive outlook for Chinese stocks by 2026 [2] - Data shows a significant increase in the number of Chinese assets held by major financial institutions like Bank of America, UBS, and Morgan Stanley as of the end of Q3 compared to the end of Q2 [2] Group 3: Sector Performance - The sectors that performed well on November 19 included water products and military trade concepts, driven by recent developments related to Japan [2] - The insurance, oil, and non-ferrous metals sectors supported the market's rebound, indicating a potential stabilization after a series of declines [2] Group 4: Company Highlights - Hengguang Co., Ltd. specializes in the research, production, and sales of sulfur and chlorine chemical products, with a leading position in sodium chlorate production in China. The company reported a net profit of -1.655 million yuan for Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 96.92% [3] - Yaguang Technology focuses on military electronics and smart boats, reporting a net profit of -98.88 million yuan for Q3 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 20.42%. The company secured a 37% increase in new military electronics orders in the first half of the year [3]
国泰海通:科技制造供需紧张 消费出行景气改善
智通财经网· 2025-11-19 13:09
Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan Securities highlights a tightening supply-demand situation in the technology manufacturing sector, alongside a marginal improvement in consumer and travel sentiment [1][2]. Consumer Sector - Essential consumer goods retail showed a notable recovery in October, with beverage, grain and oil, and tobacco and alcohol retail sales increasing by 7.1%, 9.1%, and 4.1% year-on-year respectively, likely driven by the "Double Festival" and "Double Eleven" shopping events [3] - Real estate and durable goods continue to face pressure, with transaction volume of new homes in 30 major cities down by 24.8% year-on-year, and significant declines in first, second, and third-tier cities [3] - Service consumption is improving, with the tourism price index in Hainan rising by 2.1% month-on-month and movie box office revenue increasing by 90.2% year-on-year due to new film releases [3] Technology & Manufacturing Sector - The electronic industry remains highly prosperous, with explosive growth in storage demand driven by AI, leading to continued price increases in memory chips [4] - The lithium battery industry is experiencing improved sentiment, with the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate continuing to rise significantly [4] - Construction demand remains weak, with seasonal factors impacting demand for building materials, leading to a subdued price environment for steel and construction materials [4] Resource Sector - Coal prices continue to rise due to supply constraints, with strong heating and electricity demand [5] - International metal prices have seen a slight increase, influenced by rising expectations of overseas interest rate cuts [5] Logistics Sector - Air passenger transport has improved, with long-distance travel demand increasing by 3.7% month-on-month and 14.5% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in business travel [5] - Freight logistics also show improvement, with national highway truck traffic and railway freight volume increasing by 2.6% and 0.2% respectively [5] - However, shipping prices continue to decline, and port throughput has decreased, reflecting fluctuations in export demand [5]
国泰海通|策略:科技制造供需紧张,消费出行景气改善
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a differentiated growth pattern in the medium-term economic landscape, with strong performance in emerging technologies and tight supply-demand dynamics in lithium battery materials, while consumer goods and travel sectors show marginal improvement, and real estate and durable goods demand remain under pressure [1]. Group 1: Downstream Consumption - Essential consumption shows marginal recovery, with retail sales of beverages, grains, oils, and food increasing by 7.1%, 9.1%, and 4.1% year-on-year in October, attributed to the impact of the double festival and "Double Eleven" shopping event [2]. - Real estate transactions in 30 major cities decreased by 24.8% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities seeing declines of 41.2%, 13.6%, and 23.3% respectively, indicating continued weakness in property sales and prices [2]. - Service consumption improved, with the tourism price index in Hainan rising by 2.1% month-on-month and movie box office revenue increasing by 90.2% year-on-year due to the release of new films [2]. Group 2: Technology & Manufacturing - The electronic industry remains highly prosperous, driven by explosive growth in storage demand due to AI, with prices for storage devices continuing to rise [3]. - The construction sector faces weak demand, with seasonal factors leading to a decline in building material demand, resulting in a subdued supply-demand structure and weak price fluctuations in steel and building materials [3]. - The lithium battery industry is experiencing increased prosperity, with the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate continuing to rise significantly, supported by tight supply and recovering downstream demand [3]. Group 3: Human Flow and Logistics - Air passenger demand has improved significantly, with long-distance travel demand increasing by 3.7% month-on-month and 14.5% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in business travel [4]. - Freight logistics also showed improvement, with national highway truck traffic and railway freight volume increasing by 2.6% and 0.2% month-on-month respectively [4]. - However, shipping prices continue to decline, and port throughput has decreased, indicating fluctuations in export demand [4].
银河期货每日早盘观察-20251119
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 02:47
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Derivatives**: Stock index futures are expected to remain volatile at high levels and may rebound in the short - term; treasury bond futures will have limited price fluctuations and slow roll - over progress [19][22]. - **Agricultural Products**: Protein meal will have obvious bullish factors and fluctuate; sugar prices will be affected by import volume and sugar mill start - ups, with limited downward space; the oil and fat sector will be affected by US biodiesel policies and maintain volatile; corn and corn starch prices will fall with the callback of spot prices; pig prices will still face supply pressure; peanut prices will oscillate at the bottom; egg prices will be stable with a slight decline; apple prices will be stable; cotton and cotton yarn prices will be mainly volatile [27][33][36][40][42][44][50][52][56]. - **Black Metals**: Steel prices will fluctuate within a range; coking coal and coke prices will be weak; iron ore prices will be bearish; ferroalloy prices will be supported by cost and fluctuate within a range [58][60][63][65]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Precious metals' volatility may increase; copper prices should focus on lower support; alumina prices will grind at the bottom and oscillate; electrolytic aluminum fundamentals are strong; cast aluminum alloy prices will follow aluminum prices; zinc prices will have wide - range fluctuations; lead prices will oscillate within a range; nickel prices will weaken; stainless steel prices will be weak due to supply - demand imbalance; industrial silicon prices can be bought on dips; polysilicon prices will oscillate before the platform company is established; lithium carbonate prices may fall after rising [68][73][78][80][84][86][88][90][93][95][98][99]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, the market fell, with major stock index futures contracts declining. The risk appetite decreased, but technology stocks showed signs of stopping the decline [18][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect high - level volatility and short - term rebound; for arbitrage, conduct IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; for options, use bull spreads on dips [19]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, treasury bond futures closed up across the board, with limited price fluctuations. The market capital was slightly tightened, and the roll - over progress was slow [22][23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be on the sidelines; for arbitrage, hold (TL - 3T) positions and consider long T contract current - quarter minus next - quarter spread; for options, no specific strategy is provided [23][24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybean index slightly declined, and the index of related products slightly increased. Domestic supply has uncertainties, and the price has support [26][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect price support and oscillation; for arbitrage, no specific strategy is provided; for options, no specific strategy is provided [27]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: International sugar prices may bottom out and oscillate. Domestic sugar prices are under pressure due to high - volume imports and sugar mill start - ups, but there is support at the current price [32][33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can consider building long positions on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell put options at low levels [33]. Oil and Fat Sector - **Market Performance**: Affected by the US biodiesel policy, external market oil and fat prices rose, but the final plan is not yet determined. Palm oil may have limited rebound, and soybean oil follows the overall trend, while rapeseed oil will continue to reduce inventory [35][36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can use short - term long positions on dips or high - selling and low - buying; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [37]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: The external market of corn rebounded, and domestic corn prices may fall with the decline of port prices [39][40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can short on dips for December corn in the external market, stay on the sidelines for January corn, and wait for dips for May and July corn; for arbitrage, shrink the spread between January corn and starch; for options, stay on the sidelines [40]. Pig - **Market Performance**: The short - term supply pressure has improved, but the overall supply is still high, and pig prices still face pressure [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can arrange a small number of short positions; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell wide - straddle strategies [42]. Peanut - **Market Performance**: Peanut spot prices are stable, and futures prices will oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [43][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can go long on May peanuts on dips; for arbitrage, conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage; for options, sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [45]. Egg - **Market Performance**: Egg demand is average, and prices are stable with a slight decline [47][50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [51]. Apple - **Market Performance**: Apple production has decreased, and the cold - storage inventory is likely to be lower than last year. The fundamentals are strong, but the market is volatile [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should exit and wait and see; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [53]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn - **Market Performance**: New cotton will be listed in large quantities, and the increase in production may be less than expected. The demand is in the off - season, and cotton prices will be mainly volatile [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading expects US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton to be mainly volatile; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [56]. Black Metals Steel - **Market Performance**: The black - metal sector was weak at night, and steel prices were restricted by supply - demand structure. However, there is cost support, and hot - rolled coil performs better than rebar [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect range - bound fluctuations; for arbitrage, long the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar; for options, stay on the sidelines [59]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: After short - term replenishment, the market is cautious, and prices are weak. In the medium - term, there is demand for winter storage [60][61]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect weak short - term fluctuations and consider going long near previous lows; for arbitrage, hold the 1/5 reverse arbitrage of coking coal; for options, stay on the sidelines [62]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The supply of iron ore remains high in the fourth quarter, and domestic demand is weak. Ore prices are expected to be bearish [63][64]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be bearish; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [64]. Ferroalloy - **Market Performance**: The supply and demand of ferroalloy are both weak, and prices are supported by cost and will oscillate at the bottom [65]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect bottom - bound oscillations; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [66]. Non - ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The ADP weekly employment data was weak, and precious metals rebounded slightly. With the upcoming release of key data, volatility may increase [68][70]. - **Trading Strategy**: Conservative investors should stay on the sidelines; aggressive investors can try to go long near yesterday's low [71]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has decreased, and copper prices are under pressure. However, there is support around 85,000 yuan/ton [72][73]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can go long on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [74]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The short - term supply of alumina is still in surplus, and prices will grind at the bottom and oscillate before substantial production cuts [78]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect short - term bottom - grinding oscillations; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [79]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations have decreased, and aluminum prices have fallen, but the fundamentals are still strong [79][80]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should wait for the market to stabilize and then be bullish in the medium - term; for arbitrage, focus on the narrowing of the spread between East China and Central China; for options, stay on the sidelines [80]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Performance**: Cast aluminum alloy prices follow aluminum prices. The cost provides support, but market trading activity has declined [83][84]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should wait for the market to stabilize and then be bullish in the medium - term; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [84]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The domestic zinc mine supply is tight, and zinc prices may fluctuate widely due to macro factors [85][86]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can hold profitable long positions; for arbitrage, hold the SHFE long and LME short arbitrage; for options, stay on the sidelines [86]. Lead - **Market Performance**: Domestic lead inventories are increasing, and lead prices are under pressure. They will be affected by overseas macro factors [87][88]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can hold remaining short positions; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [88]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel is in a state of oversupply of deliverable products. In the off - season, inventories increase, and prices are weak. However, there may be production cuts [90]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should short on rebounds; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [91]. Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: Stainless steel demand is in the off - season, costs are falling, and inventories are increasing. Prices will follow nickel prices and continue to decline [93]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should short on rebounds; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [94]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The demand for industrial silicon has weakened, but downstream prices have risen, and costs are firm. It can be bought on dips [95]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should buy on dips; for arbitrage, conduct the Si2512 and Si2601 contract positive arbitrage; for options, no specific strategy is provided [95]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The supply and demand of polysilicon have both decreased in November, and the market will oscillate before the platform company is established [98]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should stay on the sidelines [98]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: There are increasing differences at high levels, and prices may fall after rising [99]. - **No specific trading strategy is provided in the text**.
多方因素共振导致近期A股调整,风险逐步释放后下方空间有限
British Securities· 2025-11-19 01:33
Market Overview - The recent adjustment in the A-share market is attributed to multiple factors, including external pressures from the Federal Reserve's stance against recent interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions affecting market risk appetite [2][12] - The 4000-point level is not just a psychological barrier but also a significant technical resistance due to historical trapped positions since 2015, leading to market confidence issues [2][12] - The market is experiencing structural differentiation, with a rapid rotation between sectors resulting in a general lack of profit-making opportunities [2][12] Short-term Market Sentiment - Despite the recent three-day decline, the market's risk is gradually being released, indicating that the short-term adjustment may be nearing its end [3][13] - There is no sign of panic selling, suggesting a healthy adjustment rather than a trend reversal [3][13] - Anticipation for two important meetings in December, which will set the economic policy for the next year, is high, potentially serving as a catalyst for market recovery [3][13] Economic Indicators - The October CPI stabilization indicates a recovery in economic momentum [3][13] - The overall monetary policy remains accommodative, with potential for further easing measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate reductions, which could provide ample liquidity support for the market [3][13] Sector Performance - AI application concept stocks have shown resilience, with significant gains in related sectors such as software development and semiconductor industries [8][11] - The cultural media sector, including gaming and entertainment, has also performed well, with a notable increase in stock prices despite broader market declines [9][10] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a balanced approach to investment, focusing on sectors with strong performance indicators, including technology growth areas (semiconductors, AI themes) and cyclical industries (solar energy, batteries, chemicals) [4][14] - Emphasis is placed on selecting stocks with solid earnings support during market dips to optimize investment returns [4][14]
收评:三大指数尾盘跌幅,大家都生气了!周三,A股会迎来大调整吗
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-18 17:24
尾盘一砸,评论区、群里立刻变成"火山口": "机构又砸盘!" "这是不是中期调整的开始?" "都怪谁谁谁发了个利空!" 但如果你把K线缩小一点,看的是"指数"和"趋势"而不是"自家那几只股",周二这种走势,更多只是——正常得不能再正常的一次震荡回调: 沪指收报 3939.81 点,跌 0.81% 深成指收报 13080.49 点,跌 0.92% 创业板指收报 3069.22 点,跌 1.16% 三大指数都是一个字:跌,但远称不上"暴"。 真正让人愤怒的,是两件事: 个股普跌带来的"体感崩盘": 下跌个股超过 4100 只,局部板块(煤炭、电池、有色)甚至出现多只跌停,这种"账户层面的冲击"远远大于指数层面的跌幅。 情绪预期和现实的落差: 上周刚创新高,大家心里已经在默念"牛市、起飞、翻倍"。结果刚高兴没几天,账户就开始"回撤教育"。 情绪一落差,就容易把一次正常的盘整,当成"末日预警"。 如果你是指数基金、宽基ETF、行业指数的长期持有者,今天这种盘面——说得直白一点: 和"崩盘"没有半毛钱关系。 二、周二盘面:不是"中期大调整",是"箱体里的正常回调" 先把结论放前面: 从指数层面看,今天的调整,不是"大级 ...
11/18财经夜宵:得知基金净值排名及选基策略,赶紧告知大家
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-18 16:16
Core Insights - The article provides an overview of the latest fund net value rankings, highlighting the top-performing and bottom-performing funds as of November 18, 2025 [2][3]. Fund Performance Summary Top 10 Funds by Net Value Growth - The top-performing funds include: 1. 汇添富竞争优势灵活配置混合 (1.3215, +3.25%) 2. 东方人工智能主题混合A (1.4984, +2.98%) 3. 东方人工智能主题混合C (1.4831, +2.98%) 4. 德邦稳盈增长灵活配置混合A (0.9472, +2.87%) 5. 德邦稳盈增长灵活配置混合C (0.9357, +2.86%) 6. 银华集成电路混合A (1.4666, +2.66%) 7. 银华集成电路混合C (1.4549, +2.65%) 8. 东方阿尔法科技优选混合发起C (0.9635, +2.57%) 9. 东方阿尔法科技优选混合发起A (0.9652, +2.56%) 10. 国泰新经济灵活配置混合A (2.8960, +2.44%) [2]. Bottom 10 Funds by Net Value Decline - The underperforming funds include: 1. 中邮能源革新混合型发起A (0.8948, -6.43%) 2. 中邮能源革新混合型发起C (0.8753, -6.43%) 3. 先锋聚优C (1.1414, -6.15%) 4. 先锋聚优A (1.1216, -6.15%) 5. 银河核心优势混合C (0.9354, -6.01%) 6. 银河核心优势混合A (0.9453, -6.01%) 7. 先锋聚元C (1.3647, -5.85%) 8. 先锋聚元A (1.4007, -5.85%) 9. 中邮低碳配置混合 (1.1650, -5.74%) 10. 宏利新能源股票C (1.3347, -5.52%) [3]. Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and faced challenges in maintaining upward momentum, while the ChiNext Index successfully filled gaps before experiencing a moderate decline. The total trading volume reached 1.94 trillion, with a market breadth of 1278 gainers to 4106 losers [5]. - Leading sectors included internet, software services, and advertising packaging, while the chemical, steel, non-ferrous metals, and coal industries faced declines exceeding 2% [5]. Fund Strategy Insights - The fund with the fastest net value growth is identified as 汇添富竞争优势灵活配置混合, indicating a potential shift towards technology-focused investments [5]. - The fund's top holdings show a concentration of 59.40%, with significant positions in companies like 阿里巴巴-W and 美的集团, which have experienced varying performance [6]. - Another fund, focused on the renewable energy sector, has a higher concentration of 61.92% in its top holdings, indicating a strategic pivot towards this industry despite recent underperformance [6].
有色板块短周期动量下降:商品量化CTA周度跟踪-20251118
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 11:58
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the proportion of short positions in commodities has rebounded, mainly due to the decline in the factor strength of the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors, while the black sector has recovered. The black sector is relatively strong in cross - section, while the non - ferrous and agricultural sectors are relatively weak [3]. - The comprehensive signals of methanol, float glass, iron ore, and lead have different trends this week, with methanol and float glass showing long signals, iron ore showing a short signal, and lead maintaining a short signal [5][8][11]. 3. Summary by Related Content Commodity Market Overview - In the precious metals sector, the time - series momentum of gold has declined, and the trading volume of silver has decreased significantly, with an expanding divergence at both ends of the cross - section. In the non - ferrous sector, the position factor has decreased marginally, the cross - section momentum divergence has narrowed, and lead is relatively weak in the cross - section. In the black sector, the positions of iron ore and rebar have decreased slightly, but the short - term momentum time - series has recovered, and rebar is relatively strong in the cross - section. In the energy sector, the short - term momentum factor has declined, and the chemical sector is at the relatively strong end of the cross - section. In the agricultural products sector, the cross - section divergence of oil and meal has narrowed, and the overall long - term momentum has stabilized slightly [3]. Strategy Net Value and Fundamental Factors - **Methanol**: Last week, the supply factor increased by 0.57%, the demand factor decreased by 0.40%, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.58%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.45%. This week, the comprehensive signal has turned long. In terms of fundamental factors, the supply side has turned neutral, the demand side has weakened from a long signal to neutral, the inventory side is long, and the spread side is slightly bearish [5]. - **Float Glass**: Last week, the profit factor increased by 0.05%, the spread factor weakened by 0.36%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.26%. This week, the comprehensive signal is long. The supply side is neutral, the demand side is slightly bearish, the inventory side is long, and the spread side has weakened significantly from a long signal to neutral [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.2%, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.3%, and the comprehensive factor increased by 0.06%. This week, the comprehensive signal has turned short. The supply side remains bearish, the demand side has turned bearish, the inventory side has turned neutral, and the spread side remains neutral [11]. - **Lead**: Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.18%, the demand factor weakened by 0.17%, the inventory factor decreased by 0.16%, the spread factor weakened by 0.07%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.14%. This week, the comprehensive signal remains short. The supply side has turned neutral, the inventory side remains bearish, and the spread side remains bearish [11].
收评:沪指跌0.81%,资源股集体下挫,半导体板块逆市拉升
星石投资表示,短期来看,市场成交相对稳定,板块分化和跷跷板现象明显,可能意味着当前资金缺少 共识、博弈性增强,预计后续市场整体或保持震荡。在此过程中,市场筹码充分交换,将夯实基础,为 后续股市表现蓄势。从中期角度看,国内内生动能正在修复,全市场有望进入业绩释放期,股市主要驱 动因素有望由估值端转为业绩端,叠加A股整体的股债比价仍处于历史中高水平,A股仍处于"慢牛"驱 动中。 11月18日,三大股指盘中震荡下探,午后加速下行,创业板指跌超1%,场内超4100股飘绿。 截至收盘,沪指跌0.81%报3939.81点,深证成指跌0.92%报13080.49点,创业板指跌1.16%报3069.22点, 北证50指数大跌近3%,科创50指数逆市涨0.29%,沪深北三市合计成交19461亿元。 盘面上看,煤炭、钢铁、有色、化工、地产、电力、石油等板块走低,半导体板块拉升,AI应用、存 储芯片、网游概念等活跃。 (文章来源:证券时报网) ...
宏观日报:中游开工延续分化-20251118
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 03:16
Industry Overview Upstream - Nickel prices declined, while aluminum prices slightly rebounded in the non-ferrous sector [2] - Glass prices slightly decreased in the black sector [2] - Egg prices slightly dropped in the agricultural sector [2] Midstream - The PX开工率 remained at a high level, while the PTA开工率 continued to decline in the chemical industry [2] - Power plant coal consumption was low, and inventory increased in the energy sector [2] - The asphalt开工率 decreased in the infrastructure sector [2] Downstream - Commodity housing sales in second - and third - tier cities declined seasonally in the real estate sector [3] - The number of domestic flights remained stable at a high level in the service sector [3] Macroeconomic Data Production Industry - From January to October, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 9.5% year - on - year, contributing over half and becoming the main engine driving industrial growth [1] - In the energy and key raw materials fields, high - quality coal production capacity continued to be released, but due to the global AI boom, there was a shortage and significant price increase in chips, with some prices rising by up to 60% compared to September [1] Service Industry - In October 2025, banks settled foreign exchange worth 1519.4 billion yuan and sold foreign exchange worth 1394 billion yuan. From January to October 2025, banks cumulatively settled foreign exchange worth 14794.1 billion yuan and sold foreign exchange worth 14220.1 billion yuan [1] - From January to October 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 18649 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%; the national general public budget expenditure was 22582.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2% [1] - The national government - sponsored fund budget revenue was 3447.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%; the national government - sponsored fund budget expenditure was 8089.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.4% [1] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry | Indicator | Price on 11/17 | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2174.3 yuan/ton | 0.80% | | | Spot price of eggs | 6.4 yuan/kg | - 1.54% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 8700.0 yuan/ton | - 0.37% | | | Spot price of cotton | 14799.2 yuan/ton | - 0.28% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 18.0 yuan/kg | - 0.72% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of copper | 86553.3 yuan/ton | 0.01% | | | Spot price of zinc | 22380.0 yuan/ton | - 0.79% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 21920.0 yuan/ton | 1.94% | | | Spot price of nickel | 119033.3 yuan/ton | - 2.16% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of aluminum | 17343.8 yuan/ton | - 0.25% | | | Spot price of rebar | 3164.3 yuan/ton | 1.00% | | | Spot price of iron ore | 800.0 yuan/ton | 1.58% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3297.5 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | | Spot price of glass | 13.8 yuan/sq.m | - 1.43% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 14900.0 yuan/ton | 1.42% | | | China Plastic City price index | 769.1 | - 0.54% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 60.1 dollars/barrel | 0.57% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 64.4 dollars/barrel | 1.19% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 4202.0 yuan/ton | - 0.94% | | | Coal price | 834.0 yuan/ton | 0.85% | | Chemical | Spot price of PTA | 4647.0 yuan/ton | 0.03% | | | Spot price of polyethylene | 6991.7 yuan/ton | 0.36% | | | Spot price of urea | 1630.0 yuan/ton | 0.15% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1218.6 yuan/ton | 0.89% | | Real estate | Cement price index (national) | 137.7 | 0.95% | | | Building materials composite index | - | 1.11% | | | Concrete price index (national) | 90.8 | - 0.14% | [33]