Report Information - Industry: Grease [1] - Date: November 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Views - The decline of grease continues, dragged down by the inventory accumulation in palm oil producing areas and the uncertainty of biodiesel policies [7]. - The domestic grease supply is sufficient, the spot price drops with the market, and the basis quotation remains stable [7]. - The palm oil main producing areas have a strong production increase expectation, the export data slows down, and the domestic and foreign inventories are expected to increase, putting pressure on palm oil, but there are expectations of production reduction and B50 in the long - term [7]. - Based on the import cost calculation, the current price decline space of soybean oil is limited and it has buying value, but it is suppressed by high inventory, and the short - term price has limited upward momentum, with a possible fluctuation range of 8000 - 8300 [7]. - For rapeseed oil, pay attention to the arrival and crushing situation of Australian seeds later and the progress of China - Canada relations. The domestic spot basis is stable and slightly strong, and the de - stocking trend continues. It should be regarded as short - term shock adjustment, pay attention to the lower technical support, and the medium - and long - term idea is to buy on dips [7]. Content Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Quotation Information** - Dongguan rapeseed oil traders' quotes: Grade 3 rapeseed oil in Dongguan factories is 01 + 630, and grade 1 rapeseed oil is 01 + 730 [7]. - The basis price of grade 1 soybean oil in the East China market: For grade 1 soybean oil, in November it is Y2501+250; from November to January it is 01 + 260; from December to January it is 01 + 280. For grade 3 soybean oil, it is 01 + 180. For raw soybean oil, it is 01 + 60. The palm oil quotes of Guangdong traders are stable: 18 - degree palm oil is 01 + 120 (at Guangzhou warehouse), 18 - degree palm oil is 01 + 100 (at Dongguan warehouse), 24 - degree palm oil is 01 - 80 (at Dongguan warehouse), and 28 - degree palm oil is 01 - 80 (at Dongguan warehouse) [7]. 2. Industry News - According to the data released by shipping survey agency ITS, Malaysia's palm oil export volume in October was 1,639,089 tons, a 5.2% increase compared with 1,558,247 tons in September. Among them, the export volume to China was 15,000 tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons compared with 45,000 tons in the same period last month [8]. - According to the data released by independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil export volume in October was 1,501,945 tons, a 4.3% increase compared with 1,439,845 tons in September [8]. - After the summit between China and the US leaders on Thursday, China has started to purchase US soybeans, and the stagnation of purchases in the previous months has been alleviated. People familiar with the matter revealed that China has newly purchased at least four ships of US soybeans, which will be shipped from the West Coast and Gulf Coast ports of the US later this year and early in 2026, with a total volume of about 250,000 tons, marking the gradual recovery of China - US agricultural product trade [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts including the spot prices of East China grade 3 rapeseed oil, East China grade 4 soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar to RMB exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [10][12][15][23][28][29]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have rotated rapidly, with technology remaining the market's main theme. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the mid - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading is short - term positive for the bond market sentiment. In the medium term, the bond market in the fourth quarter is mainly affected by fundamentals, the implementation time of the fund fee rate new regulations, and institutional allocation power. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [6]. - For precious metals, the release of the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations still requires a certain period. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver main contract is 11001 - 12366 yuan/kilogram [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different outlooks. For example, copper prices have a strong support at the bottom; aluminum prices may maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend; zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short - term but have limited upside space; lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term; nickel prices may be weak in the short - term but have long - term support; tin prices may oscillate and rise in the short - term; lithium carbonate prices may oscillate in a range; alumina prices are recommended to be observed; stainless steel prices are difficult to rebound substantially; and casting aluminum alloy prices have stronger support [11][13][15][16][18][21][23][26][28][30]. - For black building materials, steel consumption may gradually recover in the future; iron ore prices may experience a phased decline; glass prices' upward space is restricted; soda ash prices will continue to oscillate weakly; manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend; industrial silicon prices may consolidate; and polysilicon prices' supply - demand pattern may improve marginally [33][35][37][38][42][44][47]. - For energy and chemicals, rubber prices have a stabilizing sign; oil prices are not recommended to be overly shorted in the short - term; methanol prices are recommended to be observed; urea prices are recommended to be observed; pure benzene and styrene prices may stop falling; PVC prices are expected to have a continuous inventory accumulation pressure; ethylene glycol prices are recommended to be shorted on rallies; PTA prices may see an opportunity for processing fee repair; p - xylene prices are recommended to be observed; polyethylene prices may maintain a low - level oscillation; and polypropylene prices are under pressure from high inventory [52][54][56][59][61][63][65][67][70][72][74]. - For agricultural products, hog prices are expected to decline slightly; egg prices are expected to be mainly stable with a slight decline; soybean meal prices are expected to rise in the short - term and be sold on rallies in the medium - term; oil prices' palm oil may reverse the weak trend; sugar prices are recommended to be shorted after the rebound weakens; and cotton prices have limited upward space [76][78][83][86][89][91]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: A Chinese team has developed a new "direct deamination" process for aromatic amines; Samsung has suspended DDR5 DRAM contract quotes; Amazon has signed a $38 billion agreement with OpenAI; and JPMorgan expects greater upside potential for AI capital expenditure [2]. - **Strategy View**: After a continuous rise, hot sectors rotate rapidly, and technology is the main theme. The long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. The central bank and the Bank of Korea renewed a bilateral currency swap agreement, and the winning results of CDB's financial bonds were announced. The central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and had a net withdrawal of funds [5]. - **Strategy View**: The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading is short - term positive for the bond market sentiment. The bond market in the fourth quarter is affected by multiple factors and is expected to oscillate and recover [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver prices declined. COMEX gold and silver prices were reported. Fed officials' statements were mixed, and the weak US manufacturing PMI increased the market's interest - rate cut expectations [7]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver main contracts are provided [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: Due to weak PMI data, copper prices oscillated and declined. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic social inventory increased [10]. - **Strategy View**: After the short - term optimism is realized, copper prices have strong support at the bottom. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper are provided [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices continued to strengthen. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic social inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy View**: Global trade situation improvement and supply - side disturbances support aluminum prices, which may maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum are provided [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index rose. LME zinc price increased. Domestic and foreign inventories and other data are reported [14][15]. - **Strategy View**: Domestic zinc ore inventory declined, and smelting profit decreased. Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short - term but have limited upside space [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index rose. LME lead price increased. Domestic and foreign inventories and other data are reported [16]. - **Strategy View**: Lead ore inventory declined, and lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices oscillated narrowly. Spot prices and cost - end prices are reported [17]. - **Strategy View**: Short - term recommendation is to wait and see. If nickel prices fall enough, long positions can be considered. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel are provided [18][19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Shanghai tin prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [20]. - **Strategy View**: Tin prices may oscillate and rise in the short - term. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference operating ranges for domestic and overseas tin are provided [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot index of lithium carbonate declined, and the futures contract price rose [22]. - **Strategy View**: Lithium prices may oscillate in a range. Attention should be paid to relevant factors. The reference operating range for the futures contract is provided [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina index declined. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [24][25]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is provided, and attention should be paid to relevant policies [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices declined. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [27]. - **Strategy View**: Stainless steel prices are difficult to rebound substantially in the short - term [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Casting aluminum alloy prices strengthened. Price, inventory, and other data are reported [29]. - **Strategy View**: Cost - end support and supply - side policies strengthen the price support [30]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices declined. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [32]. - **Strategy View**: Steel prices showed a weak oscillating trend. Future steel consumption may gradually recover [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices declined. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [34]. - **Strategy View**: Iron ore demand continues to weaken, and inventory pressure remains. There is a risk of a phased decline in ore prices [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - Market Information**: Glass prices declined. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [36]. - **Glass - Strategy View**: Market sentiment is boosted, but the upward space is restricted. The impact of policies and production cuts needs to be observed [37]. - **Soda Ash - Market Information**: Soda ash prices declined. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [38]. - **Soda Ash - Strategy View**: Soda ash prices will continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [39]. - **Strategy View**: They are likely to follow the black sector's trend. Manganese silicon may be driven by manganese ore, and ferrosilicon has low operability [42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon - Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [43]. - **Industrial Silicon - Strategy View**: Industrial silicon prices may consolidate. Supply - side pressure persists, and demand support weakens [44]. - **Polysilicon - Market Information**: Polysilicon prices declined. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [45][46]. - **Polysilicon - Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally. Attention should be paid to relevant factors [47]. Energy and Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices showed a stabilizing sign. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [49][50][51]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to trade long in the short - term and partially build hedging positions [52]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose. European ARA inventory data are reported [53]. - **Strategy View**: Oil prices are not recommended to be overly shorted in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices declined. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [55]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see. High inventory and weak demand may lead to a further decline in prices [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices declined. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see. The supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices declined, and styrene prices had different trends. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [60]. - **Strategy View**: Benzene and styrene prices may stop falling. The BZN spread has upward repair space [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices declined. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [62]. - **Strategy View**: There is a continuous inventory accumulation pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices declined. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [64]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short on rallies. There is a risk of continuous inventory accumulation [65]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [66]. - **Strategy View**: There is an opportunity for processing fee repair. The supply - demand pattern is complex [67]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [68][69]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see. PXN may be under pressure in November [70]. Polyethylene PE - **Market Information**: PE prices declined. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [71]. - **Strategy View**: PE prices may maintain a low - level oscillation. Supply - demand and other factors are considered [72]. Polypropylene PP - **Market Information**: PP prices declined. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [73]. - **Strategy View**: PP prices are under pressure from high inventory. Supply - demand and other factors are considered [74]. Agricultural Products Category Hog - **Market Information**: Hog prices declined. Supply and demand data are reported [76]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short on rallies. Cautious investors can use reverse hedging positions [77]. Egg - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with a slight decline. Supply and demand data are reported [78]. - **Strategy View**: Egg prices are expected to be mainly stable with a slight decline in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the upper pressure in the medium - term [79]. Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [80]. - **Strategy View**: Soybean meal prices are expected to rise in the short - term and be sold on rallies in the medium - term [83]. Oil - **Market Information**: Palm oil export and production data are reported. Indian edible oil import data are reported [84]. - **Strategy View**: Palm oil may reverse the weak trend. It is recommended to observe the export and production situation [86]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices oscillated. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [87][88]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short after the rebound weakens. The supply - demand pattern is considered [89]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices oscillated narrowly. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [90]. - **Strategy View**: Cotton prices have limited upward space. The supply - demand pattern is considered [91].

研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 11 月 3 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 2601收盘价 各品种地区现货价 | | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8110 | (18) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8350 | | | | 8410 | 8290 | | 300 | 0 | 240 | 10 | 180 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8664 | (100) | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8564 | | | | 863 ...

Report Overview - Industry: Oils and Fats [1] - Date: November 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The oils and fats market opened high and closed low, continuing to decline, dragged down by the inventory build - up in palm oil producing areas and the uncertainty of biodiesel policies. The domestic supply of oils and fats is sufficient, and the spot prices fell with the market, while the basis quotes remained stable. For palm oil, there is a strong production increase expectation in the main producing areas, with slowing export data and expected inventory increases at home and abroad, but there are long - term expectations of production cuts and B50. After November, the arrival of imported soybeans is expected to decrease, and with the decline in oil mill crushing volume, soybean oil is likely to turn to inventory reduction. The spot basis quotes of soybean oil will have limited short - term fluctuations due to the poor soybean crushing profit of factories. For rapeseed oil, attention should be paid to the arrival and crushing of Australian seeds and the development of China - Canada relations. The domestic spot basis is stable and slightly strong, continuing the inventory reduction trend. In the short - term, it is regarded as a volatile adjustment, and the lower technical support should be noted. In the medium - to long - term, the idea is to buy on dips [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: In the East China region, the basis of Grade 3 rapeseed oil from October to November is OI2601 + 390, and from December to January is OI2601 + 320; the basis of Grade 1 rapeseed oil from October to November is OI2601 + 480, and from December to January is OI2601 + 400. The basis price of Grade 1 soybean oil in the East China market: in November, it is Y2501 + 200; from December to January, it is Y2501 + 220; from February to May, it is Y2605 + 300; from April to July, it is Y2505 + 220. The quotation of palm oil from Dongguan traders is temporarily stable, with the price of 24 - degree palm oil from various factories in Dongguan being 01 - 80 [7]. - **Market Analysis and Suggestions**: The oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors. In the short - term, it is in a volatile adjustment state, and attention should be paid to the lower technical support. In the medium - to long - term, the strategy is to buy on dips [7]. 3.2. Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture has suspended the release of weekly export sales reports and daily sales announcements due to the government shutdown. Analysts estimate that the weekly export sales of US soybeans for the week ending October 23, 2025, are between 600,000 and 1.6 million tons [9]. - Before the summit between China and the US, COFCO, a Chinese state - owned enterprise, purchased three ships of US soybeans, totaling 180,000 tons, to be shipped from the US West Coast from December to January next year [9]. - Rabobank expects the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/26 season to reach a record 177 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous year, slightly higher than the current forecast of 175 million tons by the US Department of Agriculture [9]. - According to data from the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX), the export pace of Brazilian soybeans in October so far is significantly higher than that of the same period last year. From October 1 to 24, the export volume of Brazilian soybeans was 5.415 million tons, compared with 4.71 million tons in October last year. The average daily export volume in October so far is 300,843 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40.5% [9][10]. 3.3. Data Overview - As of October 27, 2025, the soybean sowing progress in the state of Paraná, Brazil, in the 2025/26 season is 68%, higher than 52% a week ago. The excellent - good rate of soybeans is 98%, and the proportion of average - rated soybeans is 2%. Last week, the excellent - good rate was 99% [18]. - As of October 29, the inventory of imported soybeans in major ports is about 8.3 million tons, compared with 7.7 million tons in the same period last year and a five - year average of 7.4 million tons. The cumulative arrival in this month is 8.2 million tons. According to data tracked and counted by the China Grain and Oil Business Network, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in October 2025 is 8.8 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the forecast arrival volume of 8.6 million tons last month, a month - on - month change of 2.18%; an increase of 2.5 million tons compared with the arrival volume of 6.3 million tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year change of 39.44% [18].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the weak market and the fluctuating decline of the oil and fat sector [1] - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats fluctuated and declined. The Y2601 soybean oil contract fell 0.81% to close at 8,128 yuan/ton, the P2601 palm oil contract dropped 3.92% to 8,764 yuan/ton, and the OI2601 rapeseed oil contract decreased 3.47% to 9,422 yuan/ton [5][29] - In the medium term, the market will focus on the actual palm oil production changes in Southeast Asian producing areas, the demand of major consumer countries, and the final implementation of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy. Without clear positive news, the oil and fat sector is expected to face pressure [8][30] Group 2: Important Information - Palm oil: Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 31, 2025, were 1,501,945 tons, a 4.31% increase from the previous month. The Malaysian palm oil price dropped 4.86%. Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 is expected to increase by 10% to 56 million tons [6][29] - Soybean oil: China has agreed to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans this season and at least 25 million tons annually for the next three years. Southeast Asian countries also plan to buy 19 million tons of US soybeans. The US soybean price rose 5.14% this week [7][30] Group 3: Spot Analysis - As of October 31, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,370 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [9] - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, and at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [10] - The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,780 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from the previous day, and at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [12] Group 4: Other Data - As of October 24, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 67,000 tons to 1.484 million tons. On October 29, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 19,000 tons to 639,000 tons [15] - As of October 31, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 8,402,200 tons [18] - As of October 31, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 242 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous day, and at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [19] - The basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 64 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous day, and at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [20] - The basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 358 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous day, and at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [22]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific trading suggestions for different sectors and varieties: - **Financial Sector** - **Equity Index Futures**: Try to lightly sell put options at the support level or construct a bull call spread for follow - up upside potential [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Go long on pullbacks for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy for the cash - futures strategy [3]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, there is pressure for a further decline; for silver, it is in a volatile consolidation. Trading suggestions are based on price trends [3]. - **Black Metals Sector** - **Steel**: Reduce long positions appropriately and hold the long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Close long positions and observe, and consider the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Go long on pullbacks and hold the long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector** - **Copper**: Pay attention to the support around 87,000 [3]. - **Tin**: Adopt a low - buying strategy on pullbacks [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector** - **Crude Oil**: Go short in the short term [3]. - **Urea, PX, PTA, etc.**: Adopt different strategies such as reducing long positions, short - selling on rallies, and spread trading according to different varieties [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector** - **Soybeans**: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract may test the support at 8,800 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: It is in a bottom - oscillating state around 5,400 [3]. - **Cotton**: It is in a range - bound and upward - trending state, paying attention to the pressure around 13,800 [3]. - **Special and New Energy Sectors** - **Glass**: Look for short - term long opportunities based on the spot market [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is in a relatively strong state, with the main contract reference range of 83,000 - 87,000 [3]. 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: Key factors such as the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan draft, and the clarification of bond - fund redemption fees have an impact on the market. Risk - preference - enhancing factors are gradually materializing, and uncertainties in the market are decreasing [3]. - **Sector - specific Views** - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are affected by market sentiment and policy expectations; treasury bond futures are on an upward trend as negative factors are gradually digested; precious metals are affected by geopolitical and trade factors [3]. - **Black Metals Sector**: Supply and demand factors such as production, transportation, and inventory levels affect the price trends of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector**: Prices are affected by factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and technical levels [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Supply - demand expectations, cost support, and inventory levels are the main factors affecting prices [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Factors such as procurement, supply pressure, and seasonal characteristics affect the price trends of various agricultural products [3]. - **Special and New Energy Sectors**: Macro - events and fundamental factors affect the price trends of glass, rubber, and new - energy products [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Financial Sector** - **Equity Index Futures**: After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders and the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan draft, the market has a short - term pullback after reaching a high. It is recommended to try light - selling put options or constructing a bull call spread [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: As negative factors such as bond - fund redemption fees and central - bank bond - buying uncertainties are gradually digested, the bond market sentiment is improving. It is recommended to go long on pullbacks and consider the positive arbitrage strategy [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is under pressure to decline due to factors such as the meeting between Chinese and US leaders and geopolitical concerns; silver is in a volatile consolidation [3]. - **Black Metals Sector** - **Steel**: The increase in apparent demand and the alleviation of inventory pressure lead to suggestions of reducing long positions and holding arbitrage positions [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The decline in shipping and arrivals, the increase in port inventory, and the sharp drop in molten - iron production lead to suggestions of closing long positions and considering arbitrage [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The strength of coking - coal prices and the cost support provided by coking coal lead to suggestions of going long on pullbacks and holding arbitrage positions [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector** - **Copper**: After the realization of positive expectations, the price is in a high - level oscillation. Pay attention to the support level [3]. - **Tin**: Affected by the Fed's interest - rate outlook, it is recommended to buy on pullbacks [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector** - **Crude Oil**: Although the macro - sentiment has eased and inventory has decreased, the increase in OPEC production limits the rebound height. It is recommended to go short in the short term [3]. - **Urea, PX, PTA, etc.**: Due to weak supply - demand expectations and limited cost support, different trading strategies are recommended for different varieties [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector** - **Soybeans**: Supported by China's increased confidence in purchasing US soybeans, hold long positions [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract may test the support level [3]. - **Sugar**: It is in a bottom - oscillating state due to abundant overseas supply [3]. - **Cotton**: With the solidification of new - cotton costs, it is in a range - bound and upward - trending state [3]. - **Special and New Energy Sectors** - **Glass**: Affected by macro - events, pay attention to short - term long opportunities based on the spot market [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: With the upward shift of the price center and the realization of demand benefits, it is in a relatively strong state [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the market sentiment may shift from relative optimism to caution, and the stock index may enter an oscillatory phase to accumulate momentum for the next upward movement. Under the background of policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock index [1]. - For bonds, the asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - The precious metals (gold and silver) are under short - term pressure due to the hawkish remarks of Fed Chairman Powell, but factors such as the decline in market risk appetite and the ongoing US government shutdown still support their prices, and they are expected to oscillate in the short - term [1]. - For non - ferrous metals, the prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, and tin are all expected to oscillate in the short - term, with different influencing factors such as macro - environment, production, and supply - demand conditions [1]. - For black metals, the prices of steel products (such as rebar and hot - rolled coil) and related products (such as iron ore, glass, and soda ash) also show oscillatory trends, affected by factors like production, inventory, and macro - sentiment [1]. - For agricultural products, the prices of palm oil, soybean, cotton, sugar, and other products have different trends, influenced by factors such as production, demand, and seasonal factors [1]. - For energy and chemical products, various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, rubber, and chemical fibers have different price trends, affected by factors such as OPEC+ production policy, geopolitical situation, and supply - demand relationship [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Short - term oscillatory, with support below due to policy and liquidity [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Short - term oscillatory, pressured by hawkish Fed remarks but supported by other factors [1]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Price回调, but limited downward space [1]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillatory due to limited industrial drivers and digested macro - benefits [1]. - **Alumina**: Fundamentally weak, with increasing production and inventory, and the cost support needs attention [1]. - **Zinc**: Short - term high - level oscillatory, affected by macro - sentiment and market conditions [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term macro - dominated oscillatory, with high - inventory pressure, and long - term surplus pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term oscillatory, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - **Tin**: Medium - and long - term, attention should be paid to buying on dips opportunities [1]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Rebar**: Concerned about upward pressure after the realization of macro - sentiment, and the virtual value accumulated put strategy can be appropriately participated [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Concerned about upward pressure after the realization of macro - sentiment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Near - month limited by production restrictions, far - month with upward opportunities, but overall pressured by supply and inventory [1]. - **Glass**: Price downward space is limited in the short - term, and price fluctuations are strengthened [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Bullish, but the breakthrough is uncertain [1]. - **Coke**: Industrial customers can consider selling hedging when the disk rises [1]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Currently pressured by high inventory, waiting for the production - reduction and inventory - removal cycle [1]. - **Soybean**: Domestic soybean has low valuation, and the disk is expected to rebound to repair the crushing margin, but the rebound height is limited [1]. - **Cotton**: The new - year cotton demand has great uncertainty, and the disk is under pressure but with limited downward space [1]. - **Sugar**: Seasonally strong in the short - term, but limited rebound space after the new sugar is on the market [1]. 3.5 Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ may maintain a small increase in production in November, and the short - term geopolitical speculation cools down [1]. - **Rubber (Natural and Synthetic)**: Different trends, affected by factors such as cost, supply, and market atmosphere [1]. - **PTA and Related Products**: PTA price is affected by "anti - involution" policy and device conditions, and short - fiber price follows the cost [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by factors such as crude oil and coal prices, and polyester demand [1]. - **Benzene and Related Products**: Affected by factors such as benzene price, device operation, and profit [1]. - **Plastics (PE, PP, PVC)**: Different trends, affected by factors such as maintenance, supply, and demand [1]. - **Caustic Soda and LPG**: Affected by factors such as production plans, inventory, and international market conditions [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil and fat market lacks drivers, and the market is in a stage of oscillating at the bottom. After the negative factors are exhausted and the market stabilizes, one can consider buying at low prices. The overall market is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations [6][74]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In October, the oil and fat market did not rise after the holiday but showed an oscillating downward trend. Palm oil and rapeseed oil had relatively large declines, while soybean oil was more resistant to decline. In the first and middle of October, affected by factors such as negative MPOB reports and the expectation of eased China - Canada relations, there was a lack of positive drivers. In the second half of October, more negative factors emerged, leading to a rapid decline [4][10]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - It is expected that after the Malaysian palm oil inventory continues to accumulate in October, it will gradually start to reduce slightly, but the inventory will still be at a relatively high level. The inventory of Indonesian palm oil remains low, but its fundamentals have weakened marginally. Currently, soybean oil has no prominent core contradiction and mainly follows the overall trend of the oil and fat market, with limited upward momentum but more resistance to decline. In the short term, due to insufficient domestic rapeseed supply, domestic rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline, and there is support at the lower end of the range before there is substantial progress in rapeseed imports from Canada and Australia [5]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Short - term, the oil and fat market lacks drivers, and the market is in a stage of oscillating at the bottom. After the negative factors are exhausted and the market stabilizes, one can consider buying at low prices. - Arbitrage: P15 reverse spread. - Options: Wait and see [6]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the content in the preface summary, in October, the oil and fat market showed an oscillating downward trend, with palm oil and rapeseed oil having larger declines and soybean oil being more resistant to decline. Negative factors in the first and middle of October and more negative factors in the second half of the month led to the decline [10]. 3.2.2 High Malaysian Palm Oil Inventory and Higher - than - Expected Indonesian Production - Malaysian palm oil: In September, the ending inventory unexpectedly increased to 2.36 million tons, a 7% month - on - month increase. Production decreased slightly by 1% to 1.84 million tons, still at a relatively high level in the same period of history. Exports increased to 1.43 million tons as expected, still lower than the five - year average, and apparent consumption decreased to 330,000 tons, a 33% decline. It is estimated that in October, production may slightly increase to 1.87 million tons, and inventory may increase to around 2.45 million tons. The CPO spot price is oscillating weakly, and the export reference price for November has been lowered. After October, it will enter the traditional production - reduction season [13][14]. - Indonesian palm oil: In August, production decreased slightly by 1% to 5.55 million tons, a record high in the same period. Exports decreased but were still at a high level in the same period, and inventory decreased slightly to 2.54 million tons, still at a low level in the same period. The estimated production for this year has been raised to 56 - 57 million tons. The fruit bunch price has declined, the CPO tender price has stabilized and declined, and exports in September decreased significantly. The domestic biodiesel consumption from January to September increased by nearly 10% year - on - year, and the B50 policy is planned to be implemented in the middle of next year, but there are some implementation difficulties [28][29]. 3.2.3 End of Holiday Stocking and Slower Indian Procurement - Import: As of September, India's edible oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year totaled 13.98 million tons, a 4% year - on - year decrease. Palm oil imports decreased by about 14%, soybean oil imports reached a record high of 4.39 million tons, a 42% increase, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 20% on a high base but were still at a relatively high level in the same period. - Inventory: In September, India's port inventory continued to increase to 1.03 million tons, with palm oil inventory remaining stable, sunflower oil inventory decreasing, and soybean oil inventory increasing significantly. All three major oils' inventories were higher than the five - year average. - Price: The domestic edible oil price increase in India has slowed down but is still at a high level in the same period. Sunflower oil prices are rising, rapeseed oil prices are falling rapidly, and soybean and palm oil prices are stable at high levels. It is estimated that India will import more than 700,000 tons of palm oil in October, at a relatively low level in the same period, and soybean oil imports will remain at a relatively high level. It is expected that in the 25/26 fiscal year, India's edible oil imports will continue to increase to more than 17 million tons, with a significant increase in palm oil imports and relatively stable soybean oil imports [36][37]. 3.2.4 Weak Domestic Demand and High Oil and Fat Inventory - Palm oil: As of October 24, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 607,100 tons, a 5.45% increase from the previous week. Imports from January to September were at a relatively low level in the same period, and the import profit was in a state of inversion. It is estimated that the inventory will continue to increase. Consumption from January to September was also at a relatively low level in the same period, the basis was oscillating weakly, and the soybean - palm oil spot price difference is expected to continue to repair. The palm oil market is expected to be range - bound, currently in an oscillating bottom - grinding stage [43]. - Soybean crushing: In September, soybean imports reached a record high of 12.87 million tons, a 5% month - on - month increase, and soybean crushing was also at a high level. It is expected that imports in October and November will decrease to about 9 million tons. As of October 24, the commercial inventory of soybean oil increased by 2.15% from the previous week. The market expects that the inventory will gradually decrease slightly later, but the supply is expected to be relatively loose [44]. - Rapeseed crushing: In September, domestic rapeseed crushing was at a relatively low level in the same period, and the rapeseed inventory was almost exhausted. As of October 24, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was at a high level in the same period but was decreasing. The basis of rapeseed oil has risen rapidly. Due to insufficient domestic rapeseed supply and limited imports, the rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline, and there is support at the lower end of the range [47]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - It is expected that after the Malaysian palm oil inventory continues to accumulate in October, it will gradually start to reduce slightly, but the inventory will still be at a relatively high level. The inventory of Indonesian palm oil is expected to remain low, but its fundamentals have weakened marginally. The domestic palm oil inventory will continue to increase, and the supply will be relatively loose. Soybean oil has no prominent core contradiction and mainly follows the overall trend of the oil and fat market. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline, and there is support at the lower end of the range. The overall oil and fat market is expected to be range - bound, currently in an oscillating bottom - grinding stage. After the negative factors are exhausted and the market stabilizes, one can consider buying at low prices and conducting range - bound operations [74].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rolled steel: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Logs: Weak oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Weak oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Range operation [6] - Palm oil: Range operation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Range operation [6] - Soybean meal: Rebound [6] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [6] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [8] - Soybean No. 1: Rebound [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a slight upward trend [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Report's Core Views - The macro利好 has landed, and black prices are returning to fundamentals. The iron ore market has an oversupply situation, and the coal and coke market is affected by policies and supply concerns. The steel market's price stop depends on production cuts and anti-"involution" policies. The glass market has inventory pressure and weak demand. The financial market has different trends for various indexes, and the precious metal market is affected by multiple factors such as central bank purchases and geopolitical risks. The light industry and agricultural product markets have their own supply and demand characteristics, and the soft commodity and polyester markets also face different situations [2][4][6][8][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: The main line is "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation." The supply has room for impulse, and the demand is weak due to the low level of real estate new construction. Follow-up attention should be paid to four main lines that may trigger price revaluation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Driven by multiple news, the price has risen. The market is concerned about demand-side policies, and the core contradiction lies in the low profit level of steel mills [2] - Rolled steel: The price is affected by the demand for steel, and the stop of the decline depends on production cuts and policy implementation [2] - Glass: There are contradictions in the market, with weak demand and increasing inventory pressure. The solution depends on reducing the daily melting volume and the support of policies [2] Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: Different indexes have different trends, and the market is short-term consolidated with increasing bullish sentiment [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has declined, and the market has a slight upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism is changing, and it is affected by multiple factors such as central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [4] Light Industry - Logs: The supply is increasing seasonally, while the demand is weakening. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] - Pulp: The cost support is weakening, and the demand is poor. The price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - Offset paper: There is supply pressure, and the demand has not improved. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] Oil and Fat - Oils: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The overall is expected to continue range operation [6] - Meal: Supported by trade optimism and the rise of US soybean futures, it is expected to rebound in the short term [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The trading average weight may increase slightly, and the settlement price may rise. The market is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [8] Soft Commodities and Polyester - Rubber: The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is improving. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate widely [10] - PX: The trade dispute risk is weakening, and the price follows the oil price [10] - PTA: The cost support is weakened, and the supply and demand are marginally improved. The price follows the cost [10] - MEG: The supply is at a high level, and the demand is worrying. The price is suppressed by the inventory pressure [10] - PR: The market may oscillate weakly [10] - PF: The market may be sorted narrowly [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for the oil market is that the oil futures prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, so it is advisable to wait and see. In the medium - term, the strategy is to buy on dips [10]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of soybean oil 2601 was 8168 with a rise of 36; palm oil 2601 was 8828 with a fall of 14; and rapeseed oil 2601 was 9529 with a rise of 4. The basis of each oil variety in different regions showed different changes [3]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: For the 1 - 5 monthly spread, soybean oil was 184 with a rise of 12, palm oil was - 46 with a rise of 2, and rapeseed oil was 319 with a fall of 30 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was - 660 with a rise of 50, the OI - Y spread was 1361, and the OI - P spread was 701 with a rise of 18. The oil - meal ratio was 2.73 with a fall of 0.01 [3]. - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia had a loss of 290, and the FOB price of rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was 1076 with a loss of 1127 [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Oil Inventories (2025 Week 43)**: Soybean oil inventory was 57.6 (this week), 125.0 (last week), 122.4 (last year); palm oil was 60.7, 50.5, and rapeseed oil was 53.5, 54.9, 40.2 respectively [3]. Part 2: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: Malaysia's MPIC aims to strengthen the downstream development of palm oil in Sabah, especially in biodiesel production. Sabah is the largest crude palm oil - producing area in Malaysia, with a production of 4.27 million tons in 2024, accounting for 22.1% of the national total. The state has over 1.48 million hectares of oil palm plantations, about 26.43% of the national total, and 129 palm oil mills. There are three licensed biodiesel plants, creating about 160 jobs [5]. - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: As of October 24, 2025 (Week 43), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 60.71 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.14 tons (5.45%). The origin's quotation was stable, the import profit deficit widened to around - 300. The basis was stable. It is expected to oscillate slightly weaker in the short - term, and it is advisable to wait and see, then go long on the 05 contract after a pull - back and stabilization [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: The soybean oil futures price rose slightly. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2.3674 million tons, and the operating rate was 65.13%. As of October 24, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.2503 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,300 tons (2.15%). It is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see, then go long after a pull - back and stabilization [7]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil futures price rose slightly. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 11,000 tons, and the operating rate was 2.93%. As of October 24, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 535,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 tons. The European rapeseed oil FOB price increased to around 1100 US dollars, and the import profit deficit widened to around - 900. The domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable, and the coastal destocking trend is expected to continue [8]. Part 3: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Wait and see in the short - term, and buy on dips in the medium - term [10]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [11]. - **Options**: Wait and see [12].