Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the coming months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the upcoming inclusion of companies Bruco, Guming, and Mixue Group into the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which is expected to attract incremental capital allocation [4]. - Bruco, as the leading building block toy brand in China, has achieved a market share of 30.3% in 2023, with a global market share of 7.4%. The company is expected to continue its rapid growth through new IP, products, and channel expansion [4][9]. - Guming, the leading domestic ready-to-drink tea brand, has expanded its store count to 9,914 by the end of 2024, with a projected GMV of 22.4 billion yuan. The company is well-positioned to capture market share through its differentiated competitive advantages [4][10]. - Mixue Group, a leader in affordable ready-to-drink beverages, has established a comprehensive supply chain and has expanded to 45,302 stores by September 2024. The company holds a 31% market share in the sub-10 yuan price segment, indicating strong market presence [4][10]. - The report suggests focusing on new consumer brands such as Bruco, Guming, and Mixue Group, as well as collectible brands like Pop Mart and pet food sectors, which are expected to benefit from changing consumer habits and increased brand value [4][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The retail sector has shown a positive performance with a 1.29% increase in the Shenwan retail index from June 2 to June 6, 2025, and a year-to-date increase of 9.30% [12][23]. Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for various companies in the retail sector, providing insights into their market capitalization, closing prices, and projected earnings [21]. Market Performance - The report notes that the Shenwan retail index has outperformed other indices, indicating a robust market environment for retail stocks [12][23].

Group 1: Hong Kong Consumer Services Investment Strategy - The report highlights the significant effect of the ready-to-drink tea segment, emphasizing the competition in supply chains. Mixue has the largest and earliest established supply chain, while Gu Ming excels in fruit procurement and cold chain logistics. Both companies are expected to enter the Hong Kong Stock Connect on June 9 [1][4]. - Online travel competition in China is improving, with Tongcheng Travel showing high performance and expected profit margin improvements. Trip.com Group's short-term investments may impact profit margins, but long-term growth is anticipated [1][4]. - Macau's gaming revenue shows resilience, with May gross gaming revenue reaching 21.2 billion MOP, a post-pandemic high, reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase and recovering 82% compared to the same period in 2019 [1][4]. Group 2: Key Companies to Watch - Key companies to focus on include Gu Ming (01364.HK), Mixue Group (02097.HK), Trip.com Group (09961.HK), and MGM China (02282.HK) [1][5]. Group 3: Overseas Pharmaceutical Developments - The report notes that the Hang Seng Healthcare Index rose by 2.35%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 0.93 percentage points [7]. - Domestic pharmaceutical companies are making progress, with Hansoh granting Regeneron global exclusive rights to its GLP-1/GIP dual receptor agonist HS-20094, receiving an upfront payment of $80 million and potential milestone payments of up to $1.93 billion [9][10]. - BioNTech and BMS have reached an agreement to co-develop and commercialize BioNTech's dual-specific antibody BNT327, with BMS paying an upfront fee of $1.5 billion and potential milestone payments of up to $7.6 billion [10]. Group 4: Education Sector Insights - The education index increased by 2.2%, outperforming the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 0.4 percentage points, with a year-to-date increase of 8.76% [14]. - The report suggests focusing on Hong Kong higher education companies, anticipating improved profitability due to slowed investment and peak capital expenditures. Recommended companies include Yuhua Education, Neusoft Ruixin Group, and China Education Group [16]. - The report also highlights the recovery in vocational training demand, with a positive outlook for China Oriental Education, which is expected to significantly enhance operational efficiency [16].

| | 研究院副副 | 福岡市 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 15:0 | CENSE CORPI | | | | | | | | | EMIS 9制的 | 000558880 | | | 智能在线网址：彩金利用网登录登录 彩票网址官网 | | | GIOULE GAMERS O | | A | 1805 | 0351 1950 374,2500 | | | | | | | | 2017 | 品番組 | CEO TRUD | | | | | | | | 25-32 | TERE | CBS33355 | | CATALOW | | | | | | | 加 | SED. JA229 | | | | | | | | | 品是本站 | 503 1000 | | | | | | | | | 113 | 289 920.00 | | 05 00 11 | | | | | | પાટ ગુ | 118248 | 22500 | | | | | | | | | 800 | SERVE | | GENERA ...

Group 1 - The number of public REITs in China reached 66, with a total issuance scale of 174.39 billion yuan as of May 31, 2025 [4] - The weighted REITs index closed at 139.99 with a monthly return rate of 3.71%, outperforming A-shares, gold, pure bonds, and crude oil [4] - The return rates of major asset classes are ranked as follows: US stocks > convertible bonds > REITs > A-shares > gold > pure bonds > crude oil [4] Group 2 - The SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) policy in Europe is set to require a mandatory 2% addition, which is expected to drive price increases in related products [5] - Domestic channels for exporting bio-aviation fuel have been successfully established, indicating promising future development [5] Group 3 - The company Guming has expanded its presence to over 200 cities across 17 provinces in China, with a total of 9,914 stores, making it the largest mass-market fresh tea drink brand in the country [6] - Guming has achieved an average quarterly repurchase rate of 53% and a store operating profit margin of approximately 20%, both leading the industry [6] Group 4 - NIO reported a total revenue of 12.04 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.5% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 38.9% [8] - The gross margin for NIO was 7.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.1 percentage points [8] - The Non-GAAP net loss for NIO expanded by 28.2% year-on-year to 6.28 billion yuan, although it narrowed by 4.2% quarter-on-quarter [8]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 古茗深耕现制茶饮十余年，从浙江走向全国。截至24年底，公司在全国17个省份覆盖超过200个城市，共 有9914家门店，主要分布于二线、三线及更低线城市。古茗是中国最大的大众现制茶饮店品牌，亦是全价 格带下中国第二大现制茶饮店品牌。2023年古茗平均季度复购率高达53%，门店经营利润率约20%，均领 先行业。 行业下沉市场空间大，供应链打造核心竞争力 根据灼识咨询数据，按GMV统计，2024年中国现制饮品行业拥有超过6000亿元的市场规模，其中现制茶 饮行业规模最大（超过3000亿元），现制咖啡行业增速较快（24-28年CAGR预计为18.5%）。按城市线级 划分来看，低线市场具有更大的增长潜力，预计三线及以下城市24-28年CAGR均超过20%。按价格带划分 来看，大众价格带产品增长势头最好，预计24-28年CAGR为20.8%。从企业各项能力看，供应链为最核心 的竞争力。 供应链优势和独特渠道策略，公司快速成长为行业第二大品牌 茶饮市场竞争激烈，古茗避开一二线城市的激烈竞争，将目光投向三线及以下城市、乡镇城郊和县域市 场。其强大的加盟体系成为下沉的关键动力，加盟商较 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Mixue Ice City has recently faced a reality check after a significant rise, with analysts expressing concerns over its high valuation compared to its fundamentals [2][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Valuation - On June 5, 2023, Mixue Ice City’s stock price dropped by 7.72% to HK$568, with a potential downside of approximately 18% compared to Bank of America's target price of HK$465 [2][5]. - Since its IPO, Mixue Ice City’s stock has surged by 204%, while the MSCI China Index has only increased by 1% during the same period [5]. - The stock is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of 40x for 2025/26, which is significantly higher than the average of its peers in the new consumption sector [5][10]. Group 2: Key Risks Identified - Bank of America highlighted three main risks for Mixue Ice City: 1. Short-term fundamentals may not support the high valuation [2][8]. 2. Challenges in overseas expansion and coffee business could limit long-term growth [2][8]. 3. Potential valuation corrections driven by liquidity factors [2][10]. Group 3: Financial Estimates and Projections - The adjusted net income estimates for Mixue Ice City are projected to grow from CNY 3,137 million in 2023 to CNY 7,862 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 19% [6][11]. - The expected EPS for 2025 is CNY 14.16, increasing to CNY 20.71 by 2027 [7][11]. - The company anticipates a decline in gross margin from 32.5% in 2024 to 30.5% in 2025 due to rising costs and the transfer of supply chain efficiency benefits to franchisees [8][10]. Group 4: Market Position and Growth Challenges - Mixue Ice City is recognized as the largest and most prominent fresh tea beverage company in China, but its growth is primarily dependent on store expansion, which may face limitations due to its already large base of 46,500 stores by the end of 2024 [5][11]. - The company’s overseas business, which is expected to account for 6% of GMV in 2024, is projected to decline by approximately 30% year-on-year due to various operational challenges and increased competition [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][13][5]. Core Insights - Guming is a leading affordable fresh tea beverage brand with significant advantages, having expanded from Zhejiang to over 200 cities across 17 provinces in China, with 9,914 stores by the end of 2024 [1][25]. - The company has a strong supply chain and unique channel strategies that have propelled it to become the second-largest brand in the industry, focusing on lower-tier cities to avoid intense competition [2][11]. - The tea beverage market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size exceeding 600 billion CNY by 2024, and Guming is well-positioned to capitalize on this growth [1][52]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Guming has been in the fresh tea beverage industry for over a decade, establishing a robust presence with a high average quarterly repurchase rate of 53% and a store operating profit margin of approximately 20% [1][25]. - The company operates primarily through a franchise model, which has facilitated rapid expansion and a strong brand presence in lower-tier cities [2][11]. Market Potential - The fresh beverage market in China is projected to reach over 1 trillion CNY by 2028, with the fresh tea segment being the largest [52][55]. - The market for fresh tea beverages is expected to grow at a CAGR of 19.2% from 2024 to 2028, particularly in lower-tier cities where Guming has focused its expansion efforts [55][60]. Supply Chain and Competitive Advantage - Guming's supply chain is a core competitive advantage, allowing for efficient operations and the ability to quickly respond to market demands [2][11]. - The company has implemented a regional density strategy, enhancing its market penetration and brand recognition in areas with multiple store locations [2][11]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.96 billion CNY, 2.36 billion CNY, and 2.76 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.82, 0.99, and 1.16 CNY [3][4][13]. - Guming's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with a forecasted revenue of 11.16 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a 27% growth rate [4][8]. Strategic Initiatives - Guming plans to increase its store count by 2,000 in 2025, focusing on provinces such as Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, and Guangxi [2][11]. - The introduction of coffee products is anticipated to contribute positively to store revenue, with an estimated 10% increase in sales per store [2][11].

Core Viewpoint - Bawang Chaji's stock price experienced volatility, dropping 9.59% on the last trading day of May to $28.01, then rebounding 9.93% on the first trading day of June to $30.79, with a market capitalization of $5.652 billion. The company reported its first quarterly earnings post-IPO, showing significant growth in GMV, net revenue, and net profit, but also a decline in net profit margin and same-store GMV growth [1][2][7]. Financial Performance - In Q1, Bawang Chaji's total GMV reached 8.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38%. Net revenue was 3.39 billion yuan, up 35.4%, and net profit was 677 million yuan, reflecting a 13.8% growth [1][7]. - The net profit margin decreased from 23.7% in Q1 2024 to 20.0% in Q1 2025, with same-store GMV growth rate turning negative for two consecutive quarters [2][7]. Market Position and Strategy - Bawang Chaji is the first Chinese ready-to-drink tea brand to list on the US stock market, differentiating itself by avoiding intense competition in the milk tea sector and focusing on a unique product narrative around "modern oriental tea" [1][5]. - The company has adopted a "big product" strategy, with its tea latte series contributing 91% to GMV in 2024, emphasizing a simplified supply chain and standardized production processes [1][8][11]. Competitive Landscape - The ready-to-drink tea market has seen rapid growth since Bawang Chaji's establishment in 2017, with competitors like Heytea and Nayuki Tea expanding aggressively [5][6]. - Bawang Chaji's expansion strategy has led to a significant increase in store count, reaching 6,681 stores by Q1 2025, a 63.6% year-on-year growth [9][23]. Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite its growth, Bawang Chaji faces challenges such as declining same-store GMV growth and increased competition from established brands [20][22]. - The company is focusing on overseas markets, with plans to expand beyond Southeast Asia to higher-value markets in Europe and North America, where it has already opened its first store in Los Angeles [24][25].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance and strategic positioning of Bawang Chaji, a Chinese tea brand listed on the US stock market, highlighting its financial results, market challenges, and future growth potential in both domestic and international markets [4][21]. Financial Performance - Bawang Chaji reported a total GMV of 82.3 billion RMB in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 38% [4]. - Net revenue reached 33.9 billion RMB, up 35.4% year-on-year, while net profit was 6.77 billion RMB, reflecting a 13.8% increase [4]. - The company's net profit margin decreased from 23.7% in Q1 2024 to 20.0% in Q1 2025, with same-store GMV growth rates turning negative for two consecutive quarters [4][5]. Market Positioning and Strategy - Bawang Chaji aims to differentiate itself by creating a unique product category, focusing on "modern oriental tea" rather than competing directly in the crowded milk tea market [5][10]. - The tea latte series, particularly the "Boya Jue Xian," contributed 91% to GMV in 2024, showcasing the effectiveness of its product strategy [5][14]. - The company has adopted a simplified supply chain and standardized production process, allowing for efficient operations and consistent product quality [10][15]. Expansion and Market Challenges - As of Q1 2025, Bawang Chaji had 6,681 stores globally, a 63.6% increase year-on-year, surpassing competitors like Heytea and Nayuki [22]. - Despite rapid expansion, the company faces challenges in maintaining growth, particularly in first-tier cities where market saturation is evident [21][23]. - The average monthly GMV per store in Greater China has declined from 549,432 RMB in Q1 2024 to 431,973 RMB in Q1 2025, indicating potential market saturation [22]. International Growth Potential - Bawang Chaji recognizes the importance of international markets for future growth, with plans to expand beyond Southeast Asia into higher-value markets like Europe and North America [23]. - The company opened its first North American store in Los Angeles, achieving over 5,000 cups sold on the first day, indicating strong initial demand [23]. - However, challenges such as local taste adaptation, global supply chain management, and digital capabilities remain significant hurdles for successful international expansion [23].

Summary of the Conference Call for Mixue Group Company Overview - **Company**: Mixue Group - **Industry**: Tea Beverage Industry Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Positioning**: Mixue Ice City has established a significant presence in the competitive tea beverage market through a high cost-performance strategy and a focus on lower-tier markets. The company utilizes a franchise model for expansion and maintains cost advantages through its supply chain [2][5][10]. 2. **Growth Drivers**: Future growth is expected to come from deepening domestic market penetration, promoting the new brand "Lucky Coffee," expanding overseas markets, and improving supply chain efficiency. The company plans to increase store density, incubate new brands, and explore international markets [2][6][26]. 3. **Market Share**: Mixue Ice City holds approximately 20% of the ready-to-drink tea market, with a total of over 46,000 stores by the end of 2024, including 36,000 in China and 5,000 overseas [4][16]. 4. **Industry Growth**: The ready-to-drink tea market is projected to reach 310 billion yuan by 2025, with an expected annual growth rate of 20% over the next five years [4][15]. 5. **Franchise Model**: The company primarily operates on a franchise model, which accounts for over 99% of its business. The core revenue source is product sales to franchisees, which constituted over 95% of total revenue by 2024 [14]. 6. **Competitive Landscape**: The tea beverage industry is characterized by a concentration of leading brands, with the top five companies accounting for nearly 50% of the market. Mixue Ice City is positioned as a leader in this competitive environment [16]. 7. **International Expansion**: Mixue Ice City has successfully entered overseas markets, particularly in Vietnam and Indonesia, and plans to continue exploring additional international opportunities [5][18]. 8. **Supply Chain Efficiency**: The company leverages supply chain capabilities to maintain high cost-performance ratios, which is crucial for profitability. As the company scales, upstream procurement costs are expected to decrease, enhancing overall profit margins [27]. 9. **Future Projections**: If strategic plans are executed successfully, Mixue Ice City anticipates reaching a revenue scale of approximately 65 billion yuan and a profit close to 12 billion yuan by mid-term [29]. 10. **Valuation Insights**: Current dynamic P/E ratios for leading tea brands, including Mixue Ice City, range from 30 to 35 times. Historical trends suggest that high-growth companies can sustain elevated valuations even as growth rates moderate [33]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Brand Resilience**: The company views the recent 315 incident as an opportunity to strengthen brand recognition, provided it addresses the underlying issues effectively [9]. 2. **Consumer Trends**: The tea beverage market is experiencing a shift towards affordable options, with Mixue Ice City capitalizing on this trend through its pricing strategy [15]. 3. **Long-term Investment Potential**: The chain consumption sector, particularly companies like Mixue Ice City, is seen as having long-term investment value due to dual growth logic from same-store sales and store expansion [7][8]. 4. **Market Dynamics**: The competitive environment in Southeast Asia is intensifying, prompting brands to focus on improving the profitability of existing franchisees rather than aggressive expansion [18]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding Mixue Group's market positioning, growth strategies, competitive landscape, and future outlook in the tea beverage industry.