Group 1 - The latest U.S. non-farm employment data shows a slowdown in job growth with 50,000 new jobs added in December, below the market expectation of 60,000, indicating a continued deceleration in hiring [1] - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.4%, which is better than market expectations, alleviating some concerns about a rapid weakening of the labor market [1] - Average hourly wage growth met expectations, not causing new disturbances to inflation outlook, characterizing the employment report as "moderate deceleration rather than significant imbalance" [1] Group 2 - Despite some economic indicators showing resilience, the employment data did not alter the market's core pricing for the policy direction for the year, with the rate market still anticipating about 50 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [2] - Gold continues to attract funds as a hedge against policy uncertainty, with prices breaking through the $4,500 mark and reaching a high of $4,517, approaching historical highs [2] - The U.S. dollar index briefly weakened after the data release but stabilized around 99.16, with the limited fluctuation in U.S. Treasury yields providing a relatively favorable macro environment for gold [2] Group 3 - Geopolitical factors are also providing marginal support for gold, with recent comments from Trump regarding Greenland raising concerns about long-term uncertainties, indirectly strengthening the demand for safe-haven assets [3] - Overall, the non-farm data did not shake the market's core expectations for a loose monetary path this year, with gold continuing to be supported by policy expectations and geopolitical risks [3] - The market will focus on upcoming U.S. inflation, retail sales, and Federal Reserve officials' statements, as the continuity of these data performances will be crucial for determining whether gold can further break into higher price ranges [3]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court on the legality of the Trump administration's tariff policy is highly anticipated, as it could significantly impact U.S. trade policy and the global market [1][2]. Group 1: Legal Implications - The Supreme Court's decision will determine the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, marking a critical legal test for presidential authority [2]. - The court's ruling will clarify the boundaries between executive and legislative powers in the context of trade, influencing how future U.S. presidents exercise trade authority [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - If the court upholds the tariffs, it may lead to increased uncertainty in global trade, potentially raising commodity prices and trade costs [3]. - Conversely, if the tariffs are deemed illegal, affected product prices may decrease, and importers could seek refunds, potentially leading to a boost in international trade [3][4]. - The S&P 500 index has risen approximately 40% since its low in April of the previous year, driven by factors including the AI boom and the partial rollback of tariffs [4]. Group 3: Economic Impact - Analysts predict that if the court rules against the tariffs, S&P 500 companies could see a 2.4% increase in earnings in 2026, which may catalyze a rebound in stock prices [4]. - The removal of tariffs could reignite fiscal concerns, leading to a potential rise in long-term yields and a steeper yield curve, although the impact is expected to be limited [5]. - Investors are closely monitoring the potential need for the government to refund tariffs to importers, which could affect the issuance of government treasury securities [5].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has been under pressure since 2026, with the recent implementation of new regulations affecting market sentiment and presenting potential investment opportunities for 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Pressure Factors - The bond market is facing pressure due to lower-than-expected bond purchases by the central bank and a cautious outlook on interest rate cuts, leading to a correction in expectations for monetary easing [1][2]. - The "spring market" has increased risk appetite, with a strong stock market performance causing a "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds, contributing to the bond market's adjustment [1]. - Additional factors include concentrated government bond issuance, rising inflation expectations, and key levels being breached in ultra-long bonds [1]. Group 2: Impact of New Regulations - The new regulations have alleviated concerns regarding short-term redemption pressures on bond funds, which is expected to help restore market sentiment [2][3]. - The regulations support long-term holding, enhancing the stability of bond fund liabilities, and may gradually repair the widening credit spreads seen in medium to long-term credit bonds [2][3]. - There is a potential shift in institutional investor funds towards money market funds or bond ETFs due to increased thresholds for short-term bond funds, which could lead to an expansion of bond ETFs [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities for 2026 - The economic outlook for 2026 suggests stable growth with low inflation, and monetary policy will remain supportive but cautious regarding rate cuts, leading to a weak and fluctuating bond yield environment [4][5]. - The overall strategy for government bonds will focus on defensive positioning, with opportunities to increase allocations during periods of easing monetary expectations and to reduce during inflationary pressures [4]. - Credit spreads are expected to remain low, with opportunities to explore long-end credit bonds after adjustments, and convertible bonds may present structural opportunities as supply becomes limited [4][5].

新华财经上海1月9日电 2026年熊猫债市场本周正式拉开帷幕。据新华财经熊猫债数据库显示，开年首周的发行额已达70亿元。 中证鹏元分析师梁欣华表示，2022年以来，受益于监管政策持续释放利好、人民币融资成本优势愈发突出、人民币汇率趋稳等因素，熊 猫债券发行规模持续增长。随着监管部门接连发布熊猫债券资金管理新政，熊猫债券资金用途便利性持续提升，预计将进一步刺激熊猫 债券的发行增长以及熊猫债券市场的深度发展。 多重因素利好熊猫债市场 多位业内人士指出，受益于政策利好、人民币成本优势及汇率趋稳。以及熊猫债本身资金用途便利性提升进一步刺激了市场需求的快速 增长。 中国银行最新报告表示，自2014年梅赛德斯-奔驰集团开启跨国公司熊猫债先河以来，以威立雅、宝马、大众、巴斯夫、汉高等为代表的 二十余家国际巨头相继入场。随着美联储降息通道的开启，近年来熊猫债以其融资成本优势正越来越受外资发行人的青睐。 1月9日，德国工业巨头汉高集团发行的15亿元熊猫债于正式上市起息， 该笔熊猫债是2026年首只纯境外熊猫债，也是汉高集团首次亮相 熊猫债市场，对进一步提升熊猫债市场国际影响力具有积极意义。此前，1月6日，中国燃气控股有限公司率 ...

Group 1 - The capital market in Guizhou is guided by Xi Jinping's thoughts and aims to support regional economic development through various reforms and initiatives [1] - The provincial government has approved a plan to enhance the capital market's role in building a modern industrial system, focusing on nurturing enterprises for public listing and promoting direct financing [1] - Guizhou's capital market tools are integrated into the industrial system layout, providing a solid foundation for capital market functions [1] Group 2 - The Guizhou Securities Regulatory Bureau and other departments have improved the financial knowledge of local leaders, enhancing their ability to utilize and develop the capital market [2] - The establishment of the "Listing Company Home" in Guiyang offers comprehensive government services to listed companies, while the Capital Market Service Center has created a one-stop service hub [2] - Direct financing in Guizhou has steadily increased, with a total of 77.546 billion yuan raised to support industrial upgrades and public welfare [2] Group 3 - The average interest rate for corporate bonds has decreased to 3.31%, providing tangible support for enterprises [3] - Securities firms have facilitated 48.572 billion yuan in financing for Guizhou enterprises, while private equity fund management has reached 194 billion yuan [3] - Listed companies in Guizhou have distributed over 68 billion yuan in dividends, ranking first in the western region [3] Group 4 - The capital market in Guizhou has made breakthroughs in supporting technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance [4] - Innovative financial products have been introduced, including the first technology innovation corporate bond and the first "intellectual property + technology innovation" asset securitization product [4] - The establishment of futures delivery warehouses for agricultural products has enhanced the effectiveness of financial services in rural areas [4] Group 5 - The capital market in Guizhou is committed to supporting rural revitalization, with 31 securities companies signing assistance agreements with 56 counties [5] - The "Zhen Ai Guizhou" charitable trust plan has provided scholarships and financial support to students and teachers in impoverished areas [5] - The capital market has actively participated in disaster relief efforts and has contributed to the development of carbon finance in rural areas [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is gradually digesting potential negative factors, and sentiment is easing. In Q1, the issuance scale of government bonds is expected to be roughly the same as in the same period of 2025, but the specific proportion of ultra - long bonds remains to be confirmed. The strong performance of the equity market at the beginning of the year has increased short - term profit - taking needs, and the market may enter a consolidation phase, which is expected to relieve liquidity pressure. However, the fundamental support may weaken, as the manufacturing PMI in December exceeded expectations and the economic data of that month may improve marginally, reducing the need for further loose monetary policies in the short term. With multiple factors at play, interest rates are expected to continue their weak and volatile trend in the short term [103]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures' main contracts (TS2603, TF2603, T2603, TL2603) fell by 0.12%, 0.18%, 0.09%, and 0.48% respectively. The trading volumes of the TS, TF, and TL main contracts increased, while that of the T main contract decreased. The open interests of the TF, T, and TS main contracts decreased, and that of the TL main contract increased [14][29]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - **Key News**: On January 6, the People's Bank of China planned to use various monetary policy tools flexibly and efficiently in 2026, and strengthen financial market supervision. The same day, China banned the export of dual - use items to Japanese military users. On January 7, eight ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Implementation Opinions on the Special Action of 'Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing'". On January 8, the central bank conducted a 1.1 - trillion - yuan repurchase operation. The US initial jobless claims last week rose to 208,000, and the US President Trump expected to "manage" Venezuela for many years and increase the military budget [35][36]. 3.3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Treasury Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10 - year and 5 - year yields, and 10 - year and 1 - year yields widened. The spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, and 5 - year and 10 - year main contract yields narrowed. The spreads between the current and next quarters of the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts widened, while those of the 2 - year and 5 - year contracts narrowed [44][50][56]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 holders in the T Treasury bond futures main contract decreased significantly [67]. - **Interest Rate Changes** - Shibor rates for overnight and 1 - week terms increased, while those for 2 - week and 1 - month terms decreased. The weighted - average DR007 rate fell to around 1.47%. Most Treasury bond spot yields increased, with the 10 - year and 30 - year yields rising by about 3.75bp and 5.45bp to 1.88% and 2.31% respectively [71]. - The spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields fluctuated [76]. - **Central Bank's Open - Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 102.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the open market, with 1.3236 trillion yuan due. The 1.1 - trillion - yuan repurchase was rolled over, and the treasury cash fixed - term deposit of 6 billion yuan matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.2449 trillion yuan. The weighted - average DR007 rate fell to around 1.47% [81]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bonds worth 976.86 billion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 412.35 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing of 564.51 billion yuan [86]. - **Market Sentiment** - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0128, up 160 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB narrowed. - The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond fluctuated, and the VIX index increased. - The yield of the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond increased slightly, and the A - share risk premium decreased [91][94][99]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In December, macro - policies continued to take effect, inflation moderately rebounded, the CPI year - on - year increase continued to expand, and the PPI decline narrowed to 1.9%. For the whole year, the CPI was flat compared with the previous year, and the PPI was still in the negative range. In December, the official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs both improved and returned above the boom - bust line. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026 [102]. - **Overseas Situation**: The US job market continued to cool down. The ADP employment in December increased to 41,000 but was still lower than expected. The number of job openings in November dropped to a 14 - month low. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in December unexpectedly fell to 47.9, the lowest since 2024, while the non - manufacturing PMI rebounded, indicating the resilience of the service industry. The US raid on Venezuela caused geopolitical shocks [102].

证 券 研 究 报 告 淡化仓位择时，深挖板块个券 2026年Q1可转债投资策略 证券分析师：黄伟平 A0230524110002 王明路 A0230525060003 徐亚 A0230524060002 2026.01.09 淡化仓位择时，深挖板块个券 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 风险提示：权益市场波动风险、基本面恶化风险、临期及信用风险等。 ◼ 2025Q4以来可转债市场配置盘的配置思维逐渐切换为交易盘的交易思维，与之对应的是可转债资产的定价锚也从"上有顶，下有底"的衍生品定价切换为"正股" 定价。而正股在基本面预期之下，其成长弹性相对更高，而作为锚定"正股"的转债弹性也同步上升。2025Q4以来上证指数、中证转债指数、万得可转债等权指数 的下行风险远不及上行风险，期间的盈亏比均超过1，叠加市场配置盘逐渐转换为交易盘，意味着可转债需求逐渐提升，全市场的转债仓位得到抬升，这也能够解释 2026年开年前后的行情。 ◼ 展望未来，仓位角度：一方面，资产端是高预期盈亏比的风险资产；另一方面，负债端是锚定"正股"采用交易性思维的交易盘，两者结合之下，意味着未来转债市 场的波动放大，指数 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, Chinese USD corporate bonds delivered high - single - digit returns (6.87%), showing overall resilience but slightly underperforming the broader Asia ex - Japan USD corporate bond universe (7.47%) due to the Vanke onshore debt maturity extension talks at year - end [4][5][6]. - Chinese IG bonds performed marginally stronger than HY bonds. The decline in sub - 10 - year US Treasury yields supported Chinese IG bonds, and their spread tightening outpaced that of HY bonds [4][15][24]. - The issuance volume in the Chinese USD bond primary market rebounded in 2025, but the net issuance was still deeply negative due to large - scale maturities, redemptions, and buybacks [4][39][40]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Performance Analysis - Chinese corporate bonds had a total return of 6.87% in 2025, lower than the 7.47% of the Asia ex - Japan corporate bond index and 7.75% of the iBoxx Global USD Corporate Bond Index [5][6]. - The iBoxx USD China IG Index posted a 6.87% total return, outperforming Chinese HY bonds but trailing the 7.51% return of the Asia ex - Japan IG index. Chinese HY bonds had a 6.70% return, significantly below the 9.38% of the Asia ex - Japan USD HY index [7][10][14]. Market Analysis - In 2025, the decline in sub - 10 - year US Treasury yields supported Chinese IG bonds. The Fed cut rates in September, October, and December and restarted balance - sheet expansion in December [15][19]. - By year - end, 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Treasury yields declined by 77bps, 66bps, and 40bps respectively, while the 30 - year yield edged up 6bps, steepening the yield curve [16][19]. - In 2026, the actual number of Fed rate cuts may exceed expectations due to a potentially more dovish voting committee [17][19]. Spread Analysis - Chinese IG bond spreads tightened by 24bps to 47bps in 2025, driven by negative net issuance and strong investor demand. Chinese HY bond spreads tightened by 16bps [24][25][28]. High - Yield Financing Environment - Some HY industrial and property developers returned to the primary market in 2025 with over - subscriptions, but Vanke's onshore bond extension affected other HY property developers' offshore refinancing [30][33]. - The government focused on stabilizing the property market. Developers' operations continued to diverge, and the sector was in a bottoming - out phase. Quality SOE and central SOE property bonds are preferred [31][33]. - Chinese developers' default resolution and restructuring deepened, and creditors shifted focus to more sophisticated claims protection [32][33]. Sector Performance - In IG, tech, property, and AMC bonds had returns over 8% as spreads narrowed. Central SOE perpetual and bank senior bonds had lower returns. In non - defaulting HY, HY industrial bonds had 15.9% returns, and HY property bonds had 8.8% returns despite the Vanke incident. Bank AT1 bonds underperformed with 5.5% returns [37][41]. - In the broader Asia ex - Japan credit market, bank, basic materials, and consumer services sectors had total returns above 8% [38][41]. Issuance Review - In 2025, the Chinese USD bond primary market issuance volume rebounded to US$101.7bn (+23% YoY). Excluding restructuring issuances, new issuance rose 6% YoY to US$81.1bn. Net issuance was deeply negative due to US$155.5bn of maturities, redemptions, and buybacks [4][39][42]. - Chinese issuers' activity in the Asia ex - Japan USD bond market increased slightly, accounting for 47% of total issuance volume compared to 43% in 2024. Non - Chinese Asia ex - Japan issuers' issuance volume grew 7.6% to US$116.4bn [40][42]. - Monthly issuance peaks were in February, May, September, and November, supported by financial and sovereign issuers. IG non - financial corporates' issuance was sensitive to USD interest rates. Rated HY bond volume increased, with non - property issuers dominant. Unrated bonds mainly came from LGFVs, small - scale leasing companies, and property restructuring [44][46]. - In 2025, issuance was mainly under 4 years (76.3%), but demand for longer - term funding emerged. The industrial sector became the largest issuer group (41%), overtaking the financial sector (32.7%). Property sector issuance was 22.4%, mainly for debt restructuring. LGFV issuance decreased to 29.8%. SOEs dominated new issuance (72%), and non - SOE issuers' proportion rose to 28% [45][47].

支持品类：支持十年期国债、十年期国开债、三十年期债券、地方债、银行二永债、TLAC非资本债、 NCD同业存单七大品种。 机构分类：支持银行、券商、广义基金、保险和其他类型机构5大类型机构。 指数示例：每条曲线代表某一类机构对该品种的买卖力量指数数值变化，直观展现其在不同时段的交易 倾向。 新华财经北京1月9日电为更全面地覆盖固收交易品类，新华财经债券市场情绪雷达持续迭代完善，近期 上新国利货币"同业存单买卖力量对比指数"。该指数聚焦流动性强、交易活跃的货币市场工具——同业 存单（NCD），填补了短端交易品类的市场情绪监测空白，助力用户更精准把握短期资金面变化和机 构博弈格局，进一步丰富和完善新华财经债券市场势能指数体系。 国利货币"买卖力量对比指数"是基于实时交易数据，追踪不同类型机构在特定时段内对特定类型债券的 买入／卖出行为，计算量化出的综合情绪指标。 数值区间：该指数数值区间为（-100,100），指数绝对值越大表示买卖力量对比越强。其中，(0,100)代 表"买入力量"大于"卖出力量"；(-100,0)代表"买入力量"小于"卖出力量"；0代表买入、卖出力量均衡； 0*代表无有效交易发生。 更新频率：以 ...

Market Overview - The funding environment is stable and slightly loose, with the DR001 rising by 0.21 basis points to 1.270% and DR007 increasing by 1.15 basis points to 1.474% [7] - The bond market has shown signs of recovery, with major indices in the convertible bond market collectively rising, and most individual convertible bonds also increasing in value [4][14] Domestic News - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on January 8, emphasizing the importance of maintaining and improving the party's leadership system to ensure governance across various sectors [2] - The Ministry of Commerce reiterated China's commitment to deepening economic and trade relations with Venezuela, regardless of changes in the Venezuelan political landscape, emphasizing mutual respect and non-interference [3] International News - In the U.S., initial jobless claims rose slightly to 208,000, remaining at historically low levels, indicating that large-scale layoffs have not occurred despite some fluctuations in the data [4] - The international oil futures market saw WTI crude oil prices rise by approximately 3.2% to $57.76 per barrel, while natural gas prices fell by 4.48% to $3.406 per million British thermal units [5] Bond Market - On January 8, the People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 99 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of funds of 99 billion yuan for the day [6] - The yield on the 10-year government bond decreased by 1.05 basis points to 1.8880%, while the 10-year policy bank bond yield fell by 1.90 basis points to 1.9750% [9] Credit Bonds - In the secondary market, two industrial bonds experienced significant price deviations, with "20 Baolong MTN001" dropping over 28% and "24 Chanrong 02" declining over 7% [10] - Several companies, including Country Garden and R&F Properties, reported overdue debt amounts, with Country Garden announcing the resumption of trading for certain bonds after completing cash repayments [11][13] Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market maintained an upward trend, with major indices rising by approximately 0.39% on January 8, and trading volume increasing by 51.61 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [14] - Notable individual convertible bonds included Jingzhuang Convertible Bond, which rose over 18%, and Aori Convertible Bond, which increased over 12% [15] Overseas Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields rose across all maturities, with the 2-year yield increasing by 2 basis points to 3.49% and the 10-year yield rising by 4 basis points to 4.19% [18] - In the European bond market, the 10-year government bond yields showed mixed movements, with Germany's yield rising by 2 basis points to 2.83% while the UK's yield fell by 2 basis points [21]